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Why Real Estate is Still a Good Investment

Why Real Estate is Still a Good Investment

Now that the housing bubble has crashed, a growing number of academics, journalists, and financial gurus are trying to reassess the value of real estate as a long-term investment class.

There is a growing — and much needed — consensus that much of the conventional wisdom about real estate as a “great investment” is over-hyped and oversold by the National Association of Realtors who also happen to be a powerful lobbying group, dictating our national housing policy.

The Wall Street Journal’s Cheapskate columnist looks at housing and reaches a good conclusion (subscription required), explaining that the real financial return of homeownership comes from not having to pay rent: “That’s why you should buy as much home as you need — but no more. A bigger home than you need isn’t an investment — it’s an extravagance, the equivalent of renting a bigger apartment than you need. You may choose to do so, but that doesn’t make it a smart move financially.”

Unfortunately though, Cheapskate also makes a key math error in calculating the return on his over the years: “When I constructed a very basic cash-flow model for our home-buying history-selling price minus purchase price, renovations and repairs — it showed a roughly 3.5% annualized return on investment, from 1991 through the summer of last year.”

The problem is that this return on investment calculation doesn’t take into account the fact that if Cheapskate and wife are like the vast majority of real estate buyers, they didn’t pay cash for their properties — they took out mortgages. So calculating the return on an investment size that they couldn’t have come up with for anything other than real estate isn’t really fair either.

Forbes makes a similar logical miscue in its look at How Much Real Estate Should You Own?: “Strip out inflation (and the fact that homes are much bigger than they used to be) and you find that home prices have scarcely budged over the past 120 years, according to Yale economist Robert Shiller.”

These arguments are good in the sense that it backs up the notion that a primary residence is not a good investment — But most financial sophisticates already knew that and even if they didn’t, Robert Kiyosaki has been hammering away at this point in his Rich Dad, Poor Dad books for the past decade. Sure, real estate agents were telling people that buying a 5,000 square foot McMansion was a better investment than a smaller home and a larger savings account but seriously: Haven’t most people always known that real estate agents are full of crap?

But investment real estate — i.e. rental properties and shares in publicly-traded real estate investment trusts — still makes a lot of sense: It allows ordinary investors to borrow large sums of money at low interest rates and, when purchased well, tenants can pay the interest and all the operating expenses: while amortizing the mortgage and possibly even generating cash flow. On a 30-year fixed rate mortgage with 20% down, a rental property that doesn’t appreciate at all will generate a 400% return just from equity build-up. That’s an annualized cash on cash return of 5.51%, compounded (calculate it yourself here) assuming that property values are the same in 30 years as they are now — and given that housing values usually keep pace with inflation, you end up with returns that are pretty good. And remember: In the later years especially, you’ll have strong cash flow too because rents will rise while your mortgage payment stays the same. Better still, borrowing money at today’s low interest rates and plowing it into hard assets seems like a pretty good inflation hedge.

Real estate is on the whipping post right now — and with good reason. But it’s important to remember that the overconsumption of luxury properties purchased with funny money over the past few years should not render old-fashioned real estate investing for the long-term — with 20% down — a thing of the past. It’s been making people rich for a long time, and it will continue to do so.

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  1. Comment by Stagingworks
    July 29th, 2009 at 6:26 am

    Exactly…Real estate is still the sexiest option of investment. Today’s dropping market will be just an exam to ensure that we really love this field of business.

  2. Comment by Alara Cockburn
    August 12th, 2009 at 4:41 am

    Nice Post. Your information will be useful to people who like to know about real estate market investing. The new comers of real estate market can learn secrets and tricks from experts. Books, CDROM course and training course in online are available to get valuable information about real estate market. To escape from recession, real estate marketers have to know about secrets of investing real estate market.

    http://www.commercialprofitblueprint.com

  3. Comment by Lansing REOs
    September 17th, 2009 at 9:55 am

    Every business suffers from recession – they have ups and down – maybe real estate market today is down, but we can’t assure that tomorrow it’s still down, who knows tomorrow real estate market recovers.
    Investing on real estate is a good decision. Once you get a good deal, then it could be the start of success for you.

  4. Comment by Raleigh REOs
    September 18th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    despite of the economic recession happening US, I still bet it’s good to invest on real estate. The terrible economic hit is just a trial that everyone must surpass. with this calamity RE market facing,we can measure how good RE investor think and work.

  5. October 9th, 2009 at 12:49 pm

    With news about job losses and factory closures getting a significant airtime and newspaper space, one shouldn’t delay purchasing a house?

    As the country is still battling the recession, it is but normal for one to think about delaying huge investments such as buying a car or a home. Ironically, experts say that if you have any plans of getting a new home, that time is today.

    Recession is not forever – it will end soon, real estate market will surely recover


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