Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points – Sept 17, 2025

Are you keeping an eye on mortgage rates? You should be! Today, September 17, 2025, we're seeing some movement. The national average 30-year fixed refinance rate has risen by 7 basis points, climbing from 6.63% to 6.70%. While it's a slight increase, it's important to understand what's driving these changes and how they might affect you. Let's dive into the details, explore the factors influencing these shifts, and see what it all means for homeowners and potential buyers.

Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points – Sept 17, 2025

Refinance Rate Snapshot: September 17, 2025

Here's a quick look at how refinance rates are trending, according to Zillow:

• 30-year fixed: 6.70% (Up 7 basis points)
• 15-year fixed: 5.49% (Up 8 basis points)
• 5-year ARM: 7.66% (Up 21 basis points)

It's not just the 30-year rate that's moving; the 15-year and 5-year ARM are also on the rise. So what’s causing these changes? A big part of the story revolves around the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve and Its Impact on Mortgage Rates: A 2025 Perspective

The Federal Reserve is the most important factor when it comes to mortgage rates, and it is very important for you to keep track of the decisions to be made at their regular meetings. Their decisions regarding monetary policy have a profound impact on interest rates. Here's a short rundown:

A Look Back:

• Pandemic era (2020-2021): The Fed kept interest rates at historically low levels in order to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic.
• 2022-2023: The Hike Era: To tackle rising inflation, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate by 5.25 percentage points. This indirectly sent mortgage rates to 20-year highs.
• Late 2024: A Pivot: After over a year of holding steady, the Fed began cutting rates, with three cuts between September and December, reducing the federal funds rate by a full percentage point.

What's Happening Now in 2025?

• Pause: The Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive meetings (through July 2025).
• Dissent: At the July 30th meeting, there were two dissents, signaling internal pressure to start cutting rates.
• Cooling Labor Market: The latest jobs report shows a slowing economy. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and job growth was weak. This provides the justification for the Fed to begin cutting rates.
• Expected Fed Rate Cut: The market is fully expecting a 25-basis-point cut at the September 16-17 meeting.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Moving Now?

Even before the Fed makes its official announcement, mortgage rates are influenced by a few key factors:

1. Expectation of a Fed Rate Cut: Lenders anticipate the Fed's moves and often adjust rates accordingly. They don't want to be caught off guard and lose money.
2. A Cooler Economy: Data is showing that the growth of the economy is slowing, including a cooling labor market. Usually, if the economy is slowing and a recession is on the horizon, the Fed will bring down the rates.
3. Declining Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (currently at 4.070%). This yield is decreasing as the market anticipates future Fed cuts.
   • The market anticipates two additional rate cuts by the end of 2025, which could push the 10-year yield even lower.
   • Possible Caution: Potential upward pressures could come from increased Treasury supply and global rate movements.

This potent combination has brought the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to an 11-month low.

What Does This Mean for YOU?

While the slight increase today is a blip, the overall trend is important to understand. Here's how it might impact you:

Opportunities for Homeowners and Buyers:

• Refinancing: If you have a mortgage rate above 7%, this might be your first good chance in months to refinance.
• Borrowing: The decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield has made mortgage and refinance rates cheaper.

Mortgage Rate Trends:

Factor	Impact on Mortgage Rates
Expected Fed Cuts	Downward
Cooling Economy	Downward
Declining Treasury Yields	Downward

Important Considerations:

• While rates are lower than they were, they're still significantly higher than the record lows of 2020-2021.
• Your individual rate depends on your credit score, down payment, and debt-to-income ratio.

What's Next? The All-Important September Fed Decision

Keep an eye on the Fed:

• September 16-17 Meeting: A rate cut is expected, but pay attention to the Fed's updated economic projections (“dot plot”).
• Rest of 2025: Whether the market anticipates two more cuts will depend on the economic data.
  • The Fed will have to split time between ensuring inflation returns to normal, and ensuring that the economy does not slow down to a recession.

My Advice: Stay Informed and Be Prepared

I've been watching the mortgage market for years, and one thing is clear: knowledge is power. Don't just react to headlines; understand the underlying factors driving these changes. If you're a buyer, be ready to move quickly if rates dip further. If you're considering refinancing, gather your documents and be prepared to act.

The Fed's actions have the power to give, and take away. Just remember that waiting on the sidelines can also be costly.

My Two Cents…

As an industry professional, I would advise readers to take a deep breath and understand that, while today's increase might seem alarming that you must rush to lock in your rates, don't panic. The overall trend is still downward, based on the information given. The rate increase is only 7 basis points, which is not something major to be alarming about. Instead, do some research of your own by following the Treasury Yields and keeping tabs on the Feds to predict what sort of decisions they could make. That way, the information you are getting is live and fresh.