With the current trends in rising home prices, increased competition, and a limited inventory of homes for sale, the Oregon housing market leans towards being a seller's market. Sellers have the advantage, with a higher likelihood of selling their homes at or above the listed price.
However, buyers should also consider the specific dynamics of their desired location within Oregon, as market conditions can vary across different metros. Cities like Redmond and Tigard with the fastest-growing sales prices may present particular challenges for buyers, while other areas might offer more favorable conditions.
Current Oregon Housing Market Trends
How is the Housing Market Doing Today?
In January 2024, the Oregon housing market experienced a notable increase in home prices, rising by 3.9% compared to the previous year. According to the data from Redfin, the median home price reached $482,800, reflecting a robust market. The number of homes sold also saw a significant uptick, with a 6.6% year-over-year increase, totaling 2,535 homes in January.
The median days on the market, a crucial indicator of market activity, decreased to 54 days, showcasing a faster pace of home sales compared to the previous year.
How Competitive is the Oregon Housing Market?
The Oregon housing market exhibited signs of competitiveness, with 21.2% of homes selling above the list price in January 2024. This represents a 1.0% increase from the previous year, indicating a growing demand that is driving up prices.
Additionally, the percentage of homes with price drops decreased to 26.4%, down from 27.0% in January of the previous year. This suggests a market where sellers are more likely to achieve their asking prices, contributing to the overall stability and strength of the market.
Are There Enough Homes for Sale in Oregon to Meet Buyer Demand?
In January 2024, the inventory of homes for sale in Oregon was 11,719, reflecting a 4.9% decrease from the previous year. This reduction in available homes may contribute to the competitive nature of the market, as buyers contend for a limited supply of properties.
The number of newly listed homes also saw a 5.6% year-over-year decline, with 2,972 homes added to the market. This decrease in new listings further emphasizes the challenge buyers face in finding suitable properties.
The average months of supply stood at 3 months, down from the previous year, indicating a relatively tight housing market where demand surpasses the available inventory.
What is the Future Market Outlook for Oregon?
Looking ahead, the Oregon housing market appears to be on a positive trajectory, marked by rising home prices and increased demand. The 98.4% sale-to-list price ratio, up 0.5% from the previous year, suggests continued strength in the market, with sellers achieving close to their asking prices.
The top 10 metros in Oregon with the fastest-growing sales prices further illustrate the market's vitality. Cities such as Redmond, Tigard, and Medford experienced significant increases in sales prices, showcasing regional diversity in market performance.
Top 10 Metros in Oregon with the Fastest Growing Home Price
The Oregon housing market's dynamics vary across different metros. The top 10 metros with the fastest-growing sales prices include:
- Redmond, OR: 21.4%
- Tigard, OR: 15.4%
- Medford, OR: 15.1%
- Gresham, OR: 10.5%
- Aloha, OR: 9.4%
- Bethany, OR: 9.3%
- Eugene, OR: 8.5%
- Beaverton, OR: 7.1%
- Grants Pass, OR: 6.2%
- Hillsboro, OR: 5.9%
What is Oregon Housing Market Forecast for 2024?
According to Zillow, as of January 31, 2024, the average home value in Oregon stands at $480,428, reflecting a 0.9% increase over the past year. Homes, on average, go pending in approximately 38 days, indicating a swift and competitive market.
Key Housing Metrics Explained
1. For Sale Inventory
With 11,848 properties listed for sale as of January 31, 2024, the Oregon housing market offers a diverse range of options for potential buyers.
2. New Listings
In January 2024 alone, 2,330 new listings entered the market, contributing to the dynamic nature of real estate in the state.
3. Median Sale to List Ratio
The median sale to list ratio, standing at 0.991 as of December 31, 2023, provides insight into the negotiation dynamics between sellers and buyers.
4. Median Sale Price
As of December 31, 2023, the median sale price for homes in Oregon is $468,663, reflecting the overall value of residential properties in the state.
5. Median List Price
Considering the most recent data available, the median list price for homes in Oregon is $497,967 as of January 31, 2024.
6. Percent of Sales Over List Price
With 24.0% of sales recorded over list price as of December 31, 2023, the market demonstrates competitiveness and potential for sellers to secure favorable deals.
7. Percent of Sales Under List Price
Conversely, 55.0% of sales were conducted under list price as of December 31, 2023, showcasing a balance in the market and opportunities for cost-conscious buyers.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Oregon?
Contrary to a drop in home prices, the data indicates a modest 0.9% increase in the average home value over the past year. The median sale price as of December 31, 2023, stands at $468,663, reflecting stability in home prices rather than a significant decline.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Oregon?
Considering the competitive nature of the Oregon housing market, characterized by a median list price of $497,967 as of January 31, 2024, and a median sale to list ratio of 0.991 as of December 31, 2023, buyers should approach the market strategically. While opportunities exist, it's essential for buyers to conduct thorough research, be prepared for negotiation, and evaluate personal financial circumstances before making a decision.
For those contemplating real estate transactions in Oregon, staying informed about market dynamics is key to making informed decisions that align with individual goals and preferences.
Top 1o Areas in Oregon Poised for Home Price Growth
Ontario, OR
Ontario, located in the Ontario, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), is projected to experience significant home price growth. As of January 31, 2024, the growth rate is anticipated to be 0%, with a notable increase to 0.6% by February 29, 2024, and a substantial rise to 7.4% by January 31, 2025. This positive trajectory positions Ontario as a promising area for potential real estate investments.
Newport, OR
Newport, situated in the Newport, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), exhibits a similar pattern of home price growth. Beginning with a growth rate of 0% on January 31, 2024, the projection shows an increase to 0.8% by April 30, 2024, and a continued upward trend to 5.6% by January 31, 2025. This suggests a favorable market for those considering property in Newport.
Klamath Falls, OR
Klamath Falls, part of the Klamath Falls, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), anticipates home price growth starting from 0% on January 31, 2024. The growth trajectory is expected to reach 0.8% by April 30, 2024, and a substantial 5.4% by January 31, 2025. These projections make Klamath Falls a noteworthy area for potential real estate investors seeking growth opportunities.
Hermiston, OR
Hermiston, located in the Hermiston, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), begins with a growth rate of 0.2% on January 31, 2024. The forecast indicates a rise to 1.2% by April 30, 2024, and a continued growth to 5.2% by January 31, 2025. This positive outlook positions Hermiston as a market with potential for home price appreciation.
Astoria, OR
Astoria, situated in the Astoria, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), starts with a growth rate of 0% on January 31, 2024. The projections show an increase to 0.8% by April 30, 2024, and a significant growth to 5% by January 31, 2025. This makes Astoria a notable location for those considering real estate investments in areas with anticipated home price growth.
Bend, OR
Bend, located in the Bend, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), is expected to see a slight decrease in home prices with a growth rate of -0.3% as of January 31, 2024. However, the market is projected to rebound, showing an increase to 0.5% by April 30, 2024, and a further growth to 4.8% by January 31, 2025. This indicates a potential buying opportunity for investors and homebuyers looking for areas with anticipated recovery and growth in home prices.
Prineville, OR
Prineville, situated in the Prineville, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), starts with a growth rate of 0% on January 31, 2024. The forecast indicates an increase to 0.7% by April 30, 2024, and a continued growth to 4.6% by January 31, 2025. This positive trajectory positions Prineville as a market with potential for steady home price appreciation, making it an attractive option for investors.
Albany, OR
Albany, part of the Albany, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), begins with a growth rate of 0.2% on January 31, 2024. The forecast indicates an increase to 1% by April 30, 2024, and a continued growth to 4.5% by January 31, 2025. These projections make Albany a noteworthy area for potential real estate investors looking for consistent and positive home price trends.
Roseburg, OR
Roseburg, situated in the Roseburg, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), starts with a growth rate of 0% on January 31, 2024. The forecast indicates an increase to 0.7% by April 30, 2024, and a continued growth to 4.4% by January 31, 2025. This suggests a stable and favorable market for those considering real estate investments in Roseburg.
La Grande, OR
La Grande, located in the La Grande, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), starts with a growth rate of 0% on January 31, 2024. The projections show an increase to 0.7% by April 30, 2024, and a continued growth to 4.3% by January 31, 2025. These projections position La Grande as an area with potential for positive home price growth, offering opportunities for investors and homebuyers alike.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?
As of the current analysis, there are no alarming signs pointing towards a housing market crash in Oregon. The market demonstrates resilience, with a balanced percentage of sales over and under list price. However, market conditions can change, and it's crucial to monitor factors such as economic trends and interest rates for a comprehensive assessment.
While higher interest rates can have a cooling effect on the housing market, it's important to consider other factors that could impact the market as well.
One such factor is the strength of Oregon's economy. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon's unemployment rate was 3.6% in Nov 2023, which was lower than the national average. Additionally, the state has seen strong job growth in recent years, particularly in industries like technology and healthcare.
Another factor to consider is the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market. While interest rates are rising, there is still a significant shortage of housing inventory in many parts of Oregon, particularly in urban areas like Portland. This can help support home prices even as interest rates increase.
It's also worth noting that while interest rates have risen in recent months, they are still historically low compared to previous decades. This means that while some buyers may be priced out of the market due to higher rates, there will still be many who can afford to buy homes.
Population growth can also have a significant impact on the housing market. Oregon has been experiencing steady population growth in recent years, with many people moving to the state for its natural beauty, job opportunities, and quality of life. According to the United States Census Bureau, Oregon's population grew by 9.3% between 2010 and 2020, making it the ninth-fastest-growing state in the country.
This population growth has increased the demand for housing, which has helped to drive up home prices in many areas of the state. However, it has also led to a shortage of affordable housing, particularly in urban areas like Portland. As a result, policymakers are exploring ways to address this issue, such as increasing funding for affordable housing programs and encouraging the development of more housing units.
Overall, population growth is likely to continue to have an impact on the Oregon housing market in the coming years. While it will help to sustain demand for housing, it may also exacerbate affordability challenges and put pressure on local governments to address these issues. As such, it is important for investors and homebuyers alike to carefully monitor population trends and their impact on the housing market.
Ultimately, whether the Oregon housing market crashes or not will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the strength of the economy, supply and demand dynamics, and interest rates. While rising interest rates can have an impact on the market, it's important to consider these other factors as well when making predictions about the future of the housing market
Sources:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ORSTHPI#
- https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
- https://www.redfin.com/state/Oregon/housing-market
- https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/real-estate
- https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx