Housing Market Predictions 2023
In this blog post, we'll be discussing what experts are forecasting for the United States housing market in 2023. Will house prices go down in 2023? There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the housing market in the United States will likely vary depending on location and other factors. However, some experts believe that the market will decline in 2023, while others believe that home prices will rise.
Most experts in the housing industry predict less buyer demand, lower prices, and higher borrowing rates. Rate increases, along with a shortage of availability, have pushed many purchasers to the sidelines. Home prices may fall slightly, but not drastically as they did in 2008. Some believe that the housing market will continue to outperform compared to the pre-pandemic.
Most analysts predict that home prices will grow in the majority of the housing markets next year albeit slightly. If inflation persists, the Fed could tighten more than anticipated by the financial markets. This would result in higher mortgage rates, which will impact the U.S. housing market. If inflation falls or a recession develops in the near future, the Fed may soften financial conditions.
Homeowners, sellers, buyers, and renters may be unimpressed in 2023. As mortgage rates rose in 2022, home sales slowed, leading to a decrease in home price rise and moving the housing market balance away from sellers. A slowing in home price increase won't be enough to make the housing market a buyer's bonanza as mortgage rates continue to rise as the Fed guides the economy to a soft-ish landing.
Homebuyers will benefit from a growing number of homes for sale, but costs will stay high, limiting affordability as budgets tighten. If buyers and sellers have unreasonable expectations, 2023 could be a stalemate. In its most recent prediction, Fannie Mae reiterated its opinion that the housing market will push the United States into recession at the beginning of 2023.
ALSO READ: Lastest National Housing Market Trends
According to their estimate, home prices could fall in 2023. The slowing effect of rising mortgage rates on the housing market has been mostly predicted, and home values appear to have already begun to trend downward. Looking ahead to the entire year 2023, the ESR group predicts a 1.5% fall in national home prices.
Zillow forecasts that home value appreciation will continue to ease down over the coming months. The national Zillow Home Value Index rose 10.4% in the 12 months ending in November. Weaker sales data led to a downward revision in Zillow’s price growth forecast for 2023. Zillow projects typical U.S. home values to fall 1.1% from November 2022 to November 2023. For the 12 months from December 2022 to December 2023, Zillow projects only a 0.7% decline in the Zillow Home Value Index.
Mortgage rates have fallen slightly after reaching 7%, and homebuying demand is expected to return in 2023. This possibility, combined with historically low inventory, provides the foundation for Zillow's forecast, which continues to rule out the possibility of double-digit price declines for the nation as a whole in 2023.
Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Drop Most in 2023
Some regional markets are projected to see home price declines. In October, Zillow economists predicted that 271 regional housing markets would see declining home values in the coming year. The number was later revised to 314 regional markets by Zillow economists in November. In their latest forecast released in December, they now predict that home values will fall in 658 of the nation's 897 regional housing markets between November 2022 and November 2023. Craig, CO tops the list with the highest anticipated decline of 10.4%.
Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Increase Most in 2023
Zillow still predicts that the vast majority of regional housing markets will see home values appreciating in 2023. Among the 897 regional housing markets that Zillow economists analyzed, 228 markets are predicted to see rising house prices over the next twelve months ending with Nov 2023. Another 11 markets are predicted to remain flat.
Among the regions that are anticipated to have losses in value over the coming year are those that have experienced some of the largest increases in property values over the past year. The housing market in Texas (Pecos) is forecasted to see the highest year-over-year house price growth in 2023.
Here is a Summary of Experts' Forecasts for the Housing Market in 2023
Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of The Chief Economist at CoreLogic: Real estate activity and consumer mood regarding the housing market plummeted after the recent increase in mortgage rates above 7%. In October, home price increases remained close to single digits, and this trend is expected to persist through the rest of the year and into 2023.
Some housing areas have experienced major recalibration since the spring price high and are projected to incur losses in 2023. Nonetheless, more deteriorating inventory, some relief in mortgage rate rises, and reasonably optimistic economic data may help eventually stabilize home values.
The top economist at Realtor.com, Danielle Hale: In 2023, the housing market could feel more like a buyer's market than a seller's market after being in a sellers' market for several years. While the 22.8% increase in listings should be good news for buyers, it's mostly due to homes taking longer to sell due to tighter affordability. In 2023, the national annual median price for homes for sale is projected to rise by another 5.4%, which is less than half the pace seen in 2022.
Even if a homeowner decides to sell their home, they will likely have a lot of equity in it. However, as buyers and sellers pull back from a housing market and economy in transition, we anticipate house sales to be significantly lower, down 14.1% compared to 2022. The rate of home sales in late 2022 is a good indicator of what the annual total for 2023 would look like.
Chief economist and senior vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun: In 2023 and beyond, the real estate market in Atlanta will be the one to watch as 4.78 million existing homes are sold at stable prices. The median home price will rise to $385,800, an increase of only 0.3% from this year's level ($384,500), while home sales will fall 6.8% compared to 2022's level (5.13 million).
There's a chance that half of the country may witness price increases, while the other half will see price drops. Nonetheless, the markets in California may be an outlier, with San Francisco perhaps seeing price decreases of 10-15%. Following a 7% increase in 2022, rents will go up by 5% in 2023. In 2023, the foreclosure rate will be lower than ever before, accounting for less than one percent of all mortgages.
This is less than half the average historical rate of 2.5%, therefore the 1.3% GDP growth will be a significant slowdown. As the Fed lowers the pace of rate hikes in an effort to contain inflation, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 5.7% in late 2022 from its peak of over 7% at the time. This is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of 8%.
Taylor Marr, Associate Chief Economist at Redfin: Mortgage rates are expected to fall further in the new year as a result of taming inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease rate hikes in the next year, which will boost demand for house purchases. But demand is still well below its high, so it's too early to declare a comeback or even a recovery.
We are keeping an eye on the job market for signs of sustained deceleration in price growth. Higher salaries and consequent price increases are one effect of a robust labor market like the one we're experiencing right now. A small increase in unemployment and/or slower economic growth would definitely help bring down mortgage rates even further, which seems paradoxical. If this trend continues into 2023, the boost in demand seen thus far may be reflected in a rise in pending sales.
Senior economist at Zillow, Jeff Tucker: The softening of the rental market has not yet resulted in any significant respite for tenants. There is hope, though, that prices will decrease in the coming months. Rent increases have slowed from a record 17.2% in February to 8.4% in November. Data like this is encouraging for renters hoping to sign a new lease in 2023, but they should still keep a careful eye on the market and move swiftly if they locate a rental that meets their needs and budget.
Since rental rates are still higher than they were before the outbreak, compromise and adaptability will be required well into next year. Tenants with leases coming up for renewal should realize that they have greater leverage to negotiate this year and should look around at comparable rentals in the area before making a decision.
Which forecast mentioned above do you think is more accurate?
Will Home Prices Drop in the US: What Do Market Trends Predict?
What's happening in the housing market right now: Inflation and interest rates have impacted the housing market in the past year. Last year, mortgage rates hit record lows while housing values skyrocketed. CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of its Home Price Index product with analysis through November 2022 with forecasts through November 2023.
United States home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 8.6% in November 2022 compared with November 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% in November 2022 compared with October 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from November to December 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 2.8% from November 2022 to November 2023.
In November, year-over-year home price rise dropped to 8.6%, the lowest pace in two years, ending a 21-month run of double-digit growth. Many of the nation's most attractive home markets are slowing appreciation, even as 16 states defied the national trend and had double-digit price increases. The Southeastern states had the highest price increases but also the greatest cooling.
After the spring peak, Western regions have likewise seen considerable price drops. November housing values were 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak nationwide. CoreLogic anticipates price growth to begin declining year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023, lowering house values even further.
No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (18%), South Carolina (13.9%), and Georgia (13.6%). These large cities continued to experience price increases in November, with Miami again on top at 21.3% year followed by Houston at 10.6%, Phoenix at 8.1%, and Las Vegas also at 7.7% year over year.
Here's when home prices can drop. While this may appear to be oversimplified, it is how markets work. Prices drop when demand is met. There is now an excessive demand for houses in several property markets, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective purchasers. Home construction has increased in recent years, although they are still far behind. Thus, big drops in housing prices would necessitate considerable drops in buyer demand.
Demand falls mostly as a result of higher interest rates or a general weakening of the economy. Rising interest rates would ultimately need far less demand and far more housing supply than we now have. Even if price growth slows this year, a drastic fall in home prices is quite unlikely. As a result, there will be no fall in house values; rather, a pullback, which is natural for any asset class. According to many experts, in the United States, house price growth is forecasted to “moderate” or maybe slightly drop in 2023.
Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline in 2023
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Bellingham, WA is at very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL; Salem, OR; Merced, CA and Urban Honolulu, HI are also at very high risk for price declines.
CoreLogic Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider.
The housing market may need “a correction” in order to make homes more affordable. Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012. Between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022, all 50 states and the District of Columbia saw an increase in housing prices. In today's housing market of high mortgage rates, buyers are still driving up property prices, leading homes to sell rapidly. During this pandemic, we saw hyperactive buyers make offers without seeing the property and forego contingencies to win bidding wars in the highly competitive housing market.
The historically low mortgage rates fueled an increase in demand, particularly among millennials. However, they are running into a shortage of available housing and now have to face higher rates of close to 6%. Many buyers are still in hope of finding a home that fits their budget and needs. Despite popular belief that now is not a good time to buy, many home buyers are looking to lock in their monthly housing payments.
Although the housing market is still expected to favor sellers we appear to be at a tipping point in the housing market, where prices have risen so dramatically that buyers are backing off and home sales are slowing down considerably as compared to last year. According to U.S. House Price Index – October 2022 released by Federal Housing Finance Agency, house prices fell nationwide in August, down 0.7 percent from the previous month, according to the latest
House prices rose 11.9 percent from August 2021 to August 2022. The previously reported 0.6 percent price decline in July 2022 remained unchanged, For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from July to August 2022 ranged from -2.0 percent in the Mountain division to +0.4 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +7.4 percent in the Pacific division to +16.2 percent in the South Atlantic division.
Home Prices Rose 12.4% in the Third Quarter of 2022
U.S. house prices rose 12.4 percent from the third quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2022 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 0.1 percent compared to the second quarter of 2022. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.1 percent from August.
“House prices were flat for the third quarter but continued to remain above levels from a year ago,” said William Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The rate of U.S. house price growth has substantially decelerated. This deceleration is widespread with about one-third of all states and metropolitan statistical areas registering annual growth below 10 percent.”
Key Housing Prices Trends
- Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
- House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the third quarters of 2021 and 2022.
- House prices rose in all but two of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters.
- Annual price increase was greatest in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, where the price increased by 29.2 percent.
- Two metropolitan areas that experienced price declines are San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA, and Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA, where prices decreased by 4.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
- Of the nine census divisions, the South Atlantic division recorded the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 17.0 percent gain between the third quarters of 2021 and 2022.
- Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the Pacific division, where prices rose by 8.3 percent between the third quarters of 2021 and 2022.
Home Prices Increasing the Fastest in these States?
- Florida 22.7 percent
- South Carolina 18.4 percent
- Tennessee 17.9 percent
- North Carolina 17.4 percent
- Georgia 16.7 percent
Where Are Home Prices Increasing the Slowest?
- District of Columbia 1.8 percent
- Oregon 7.6 percent
- California 7.6 percent
- Minnesota 7.7 percent
- Louisiana 8.3 percent
“Experts Predict the 2023 Housing Market: What to Expect?”
Real estate brokerage Redfin predicts that housing sales will sink to their lowest level since 2011. The main highlights of Redfin's predictions for the housing market in 2023.
- Home sales will fall to their lowest level since 2011, with a slow recovery in the second half of the year.
- Mortgage rates will decline, ending the year below 6%.
- Home prices will post their first year-over-year decline in a decade, but the U.S. will avoid a wave of foreclosures.
- Midwest and Northeast will hold up best as the overall market cools.
- Rents will fall, and many Gen Zers and young millennials will continue renting indefinitely.
- Builders will focus on multifamily rentals.
- Investor activity will bottom out in the spring, then rebound.
- Gen Zers will seek jobs and apartments in relatively affordable mid-tier cities.
- Migration from one part of the country to another will ease from the pandemic boom.
- Rising disaster insurance costs will make extremely climate-risky homes even more expensive.
- More cities will follow Minneapolis’ YIMBY example to curb housing expenses.
- Buyers’ agent commissions will rise slightly as fewer agents broker fewer deals at lower prices.
According to Realtor.com, 2023 could be a “nobody's-market” for buyers and sellers. Consumers who are ready for the challenge will need up-to-date information on market conditions, creativity and flexibility to adjust, and a healthy dose of patience in order to create success. Buyers will have some things to look forward to in 2023. There will be more homes for sale, homes will likely take longer to sell, and buyers will not encounter the intense competition that has been usual in recent years.
However, affordability issues keep 2023 from being a huge buyer's market, particularly for first-time homebuyers who have already endured significant problems. Home sellers should be aware that fewer buyers are projected to be looking for a property in 2023, as rising home prices and mortgage rates drive some prospective purchasers to postpone their purchases. As a result, sellers should expect increased competition from other for-sale postings, lengthier transaction timescales, and more bargaining with buyers.
Here's the forecast for key housing indicators by Realtor.com:
- Mortgage Rates: 7.4% (avg) and 7.1% (year-end)
- Existing Home Median Price Appreciation (Y/Y): +5.4%
- Existing Home Sales (Y/Y | Annual Total): -14.1% to 4.53 million
- Existing Home For-Sale Inventory (Y/Y): +22.8%
- Single-Family Home Housing Starts (Y/Y | Annual): -5.4% to 0.9 million
- Homeownership Rate: 65.7%
- Rent Growth: +6.3%
According to the latest report published by Fortune, in October Moody's Analytics once again lowered its national home price outlook. Peak-to-trough, Zandi expects U.S. home prices to fall 10%. If a recession does manifest, that housing market prediction shifts down to a 20% peak-to-trough decline. Through spring 2023, he expects mortgage rates to hover around 6.5%.
Back in May, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told Fortune that the Federal Reserve's inflation fight would see the U.S. housing market slip into a “housing correction.” At the time, he expected home prices to flatline nationally and fall between 5% to 10% in “significantly overvalued” markets. In October, the firm clearly lowered its outlook.
The housing forecast varies regionally, though. 322 regional housing markets were analyzed. Of those, the firm predicts that 49 housing markets to see home prices fall over 15%. The firm predicts a 24.1% drop in property prices in Morristown, Tenn., and a 23.3% drop in Muskegon, Mich. Housing markets such as New York and Chicago will see a decline of 6.3% and 4.2%, respectively, from peak to trough. They expect “significantly overvalued” housing markets like Boise, Flagstaff, Seattle, and San Francisco to see the sharpest declines in home prices.
Researchers at Goldman Sachs published a study on August 30 with the title “The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall.” The investment bank's most recent projections indicate that overall activity in the United States home market will be lower by the end of 2022. The company anticipates significant drops in new home sales (down 22% from last year), existing home sales (down 17% from last year), and housing GDP (down 8.9% from last year). And you shouldn't anticipate any relief in the year 2023. Goldman Sachs forecasts additional drops in housing-related metrics such as new home sales (another 8% drop), existing home sales (another 14% loss), and housing GDP (another 9.2% drop) in 2023.
Will Housing Demand Exceed Supply, Increasing Prices in 2023?
The broader outlook from several housing analysts is that housing demand will continue to surge due to several factors. For e.g; the millennials have aged into their prime homebuying years, and they are now the fastest-growing segment of home buyers. In 2018, millennial homeownership was at a record low but the situation has changed markedly. They are no longer holding back when it comes to homeownership.
According to the National Association of REALTORS’ Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, millennials make up the largest share of the homebuying population at 43 percent, the most of any generation – an increase from 37% last year. They are also the most likely generation to use the internet to find the home they ultimately purchase and most likely to use a real estate agent.
The NAR report found that the combined share of younger millennials (23 to 31 years old) and older millennial buyers (32 to 41 years old) rose to 43% in 2021, up from 37% the year prior. Nearly two-thirds of younger millennials, or 65%, located the property they ultimately purchased online, a proportion that steadily declines with older generations. Eighty-seven percent of homebuyers utilized a real estate agent. This percentage was highest among younger millennials (92%) and older millennials (88%).
The study also found that first-time home buying among younger generations is on the rise, with over 4 out of 5 younger millennial home buyers – 81% – purchasing for the first time. Just under half – 48% – of older millennial buyers were first-time buyers. There is a surge of millennial buyers who are maturing into the conventional first-time buyer age bracket. Boomers comprised the highest proportion of house sellers at 42 percent, however, the ratio of millennial sellers has increased from 22 percent to 26 percent over the last year.
Millennials are expected to continue to drive the market and the participation of first-time homebuyers and older millennials is widely forecast to be elevated. Hence, housing prices cannot drop drastically in 2023. Inflation, excessive housing demand, and inadequate supply continue to drive up prices. Recent revisions by economists at Realtor.com have increased their 2022 median sales price appreciation projection for existing properties to 6.6 percent from 2.9 percent.
Many people have been priced out of the housing market by rising rents and rising mortgage rates, which have risen from an average of just 3.2% at the beginning of the year to 5.81% by mid-June. Mortgage rates then topped 7 percent in the last week of October, the highest level in 20 years. This has resulted in a decrease in property sales since more individuals are unable to pay the present high costs. Theoretically, home prices should fall for the remainder of this year and into 2023.
For starters, rising borrowing prices make credit more unaffordable. Second, as the economy continues to deteriorate, mortgage lenders are expected to approve fewer applicants. Although the housing market appears to be headed in the wrong direction, there are some bright spots. Economic forecasters, despite the recent recession, continue to expect robust demand from purchasers (millennials) and high home price increases in the housing market.
With homebuyers active and supply still lacking, the current trend of home prices will not see a reversal. In the last quarter of half of 2022, we are seeing a gradual shift in the real estate market away from sellers to more balanced conditions, with a rise in the number of properties entering the market. Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines. The market is heading to cool off, but house prices will not necessarily fall like crazy.
“The housing sector continues to undergo an adjustment due to the continuous rise in interest rates, which eclipsed 6% for 30-year fixed mortgages in September and are now approaching 7%,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Expensive regions of the country are especially feeling the pinch and seeing larger declines in sales.”
“Despite weaker sales, multiple offers are still occurring with more than a quarter of homes selling above list price due to limited inventory,” Yun added. “The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010 when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”
Despite a sluggish market and waning buyer enthusiasm, we anticipate that home demand will continue to outstrip available inventory. Increasing rental costs should add to this expected development. However, as the number of available homes increases, the demand for housing should decrease owing to affordability concerns. As a result, we are not on the verge of a housing market crash. The current rate of home price growth is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates combined with increased inventory will result in slower home price growth but unlikely any big price decline.
Sources:
- https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
- https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/reportsplans/Pages/FHFA-Reports.aspx
- https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
- https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
- https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-october-2022-31556/
- https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights-october-2022/
- https://fortune.com/2022/08/15/falling-home-prices-to-hit-these-housing-markets-in-2023-and-2024/
- https://fortune.com/2022/12/03/housing-market-moodys-updated-home-price-correction-forecast-housing-crash/
- https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/
- https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-report-shows-share-of-millennial-home-buyers-continues-to-rise
