About Marco Santarelli

Based on what I'm seeing and hearing from the experts, combined with the latest economic figures and recent rate trends, it's highly unlikely that average 30-year fixed mortgage rates will drop below 6% within the next two months. While I know that's probably not the news some of you were hoping for, it’s important to have a realistic picture of where things stand.

Will Mortgage Rates Go Down Below 6% in the Next Two Months?

Predicting these things precisely is more of an art than a science. There are a lot of moving parts, and even the most respected analysts often have differing opinions. However, the consensus among major players like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) suggests that we’ll likely see rates stay above that 6% mark through the end of 2025.

Some forecasts even suggest a possibility of dipping below 6% by late 2026. While a short-term forecast from HSH.com (ending January 2, 2026) places average rates in the 5.98% to 6.38% range, this still hints at staying right around or just above the 6% threshold in the immediate future.

So, What’s Really Driving Mortgage Rates Right Now?

It's easy to look at mortgage rates and think they’re just plucked out of thin air. But in reality, they're deeply connected to the economy and the decisions made by big players like the Federal Reserve. Think of it like a complex machine with many gears.

The Federal Reserve's Balancing Act

You’ve probably heard a lot about the Federal Reserve (often called the “Fed”). They are the central bank of the United States, and one of their main jobs is to manage the economy by influencing interest rates. Back in September and October of 2025, the Fed made two rate cuts, each of 25 basis points. This was a move designed to help out a labor market that was showing signs of weakness.

Now, a common question I get is: “Will these cuts automatically make my mortgage cheaper?” Not directly, and not overnight. The Fed’s cuts directly impact the federal funds rate, which is a short-term borrowing rate between banks. While this influences everything else in the financial system, mortgage rates are more closely tied to longer-term trends.

The big unknown is whether the Fed will decide to cut rates again in December. Officials are looking at a lot of data, and honestly, they're getting some mixed signals. Some see the economy improving, while others are still concerned about inflation. This uncertainty is a huge reason why mortgage rates aren't dropping rapidly. Traders are essentially split on whether another December cut will happen.

Inflation's Persistent Glow

Let’s look at the numbers. As of mid-November 2025, the latest figures show a Core CPI of around 2.95% year-over-year, with the overall headline CPI at roughly 2.99%. This means inflation has been rebounding slightly, largely thanks to higher energy and shelter costs, but it’s still hanging below the critical 3% mark.

• October 2025 Inflation Recap: Monthly data for October showed CPI increasing by 0.31% and Core CPI by 0.25%.

While these numbers are concerning enough to make the Fed cautious, they aren't so high that they necessarily demand immediate, aggressive action to raise rates. This persistent, but not runaway, inflation is a key factor keeping the Fed from aggressively lowering rates, which in turn keeps mortgage rates from dropping sharply.

The Job Market: Still Resilient, But Showing Cracks

The labor market is another crucial piece of the puzzle for the Fed. According to ADP, US companies have been shedding jobs at an average of about 2,500 per week in the four weeks leading up to November 1, 2025. Now, that might sound alarming, but it's a relatively small number in the grand scheme of the US economy.

We’re still awaiting updated government reports for October due to recent delays, but the September 2025 employment data gave us a picture of around 50,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.

So, what does this tell us? The job market isn't roaring back to life, but it also isn't collapsing. This “middle ground” is what gives the Fed room to consider rate cuts, but the slight softening we're seeing in job additions might be enough to encourage them to pause and assess further before December.

Treasury Yields: A Modest Downward Trend

When we talk about mortgage rates, it's impossible to ignore the 10-year Treasury yield. As of November 18, 2025, this important benchmark is sitting at 4.12%.

What’s interesting is that this yield has declined modestly from earlier highs. It's actually about 0.29 percentage points lower than it was at the same time last year. This downward movement is a direct reaction to investors anticipating further Fed action and responding to the softer economic data we've been seeing, such as the jobs figures and the sticky-but-not-exploding inflation. Lower Treasury yields generally translate to lower mortgage rates, but as you can see, 4.12% on the 10-year yield doesn't typically translate to a 30-year fixed mortgage rate much below 6%.

Where Are Mortgage Rates Actually Sitting?

Looking at the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data from November 13, 2025, provides a very current snapshot. The average 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM) is currently at 6.24%.

It's worth noting that this is a slight increase of 0.02% from the week prior. However, when we look back a year, it's a significant improvement, down -0.54% from the same time last year. The monthly average is sitting just below at 6.21%, and the 52-week average is higher at 6.67%. The 52-week range has seen rates as low as 6.17% and as high as 7.04%.

Even the 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM), which typically offers a lower rate, is at 5.49%. This is down just a hair by -0.01% from the previous week and down -0.50% year-over-year.

These figures from the survey reinforce the idea that we're hovering right around that 6% mark, and the very slight uptick within the last week suggests that any immediate downward pressure is being countered by other market forces.

What Does This Mean for You as a Homebuyer?

Seeing a target like “sub-6% mortgage rates” can make anyone want to hit the pause button on their homebuying plans. I understand that temptation. However, from my experience, waiting for the “perfect” rate is often a gamble that doesn’t pay off. Here’s why:

• Predicting the Future is Hard (Really Hard!): As we've discussed, there are so many economic forces at play. Even experts get it wrong. You could wait for rates to drop, only to find they actually go up, or stay the same. The slight week-over-week increase in the 30-year FRM shows just how sensitive these numbers are.
• Home Prices Can Keep Rising: While higher mortgage rates can cool down buyer demand slightly, in many areas, low inventory continues to be a major issue. If rates do drop significantly in the future and more buyers flood the market, home prices could easily tick back up. You might end up paying more for the house in price, even if your monthly payment is similar due to a lower rate.
• You Can Improve Your Odds: Instead of just waiting, I always advise my clients to focus on what they can control.

• Boost Your Credit Score: Even a small improvement can make a difference. Pay bills on time, reduce credit card balances.
• Save for a Bigger Down Payment: More money down means borrowing less and potentially getting a better rate.
• Shop Around: This is HUGE! Don't just go with the first lender you talk to. Get quotes from at least 3-5 different lenders – banks, credit unions, mortgage brokers. You might be surprised at the differences.
• Explore Different Loan Options: Have you talked about an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)? While they come with their own risks, the introductory rates can be lower than fixed rates. Or consider a shorter loan term if your budget allows for the higher monthly payment; you'll pay significantly less interest over the life of the loan and potentially can get a lower fixed rate.

My Personal Take: Don't Be Paralyzed by Rate Fear

I’ve seen buyers hold off for months, even years, waiting for rates to hit a certain number. Sometimes it works out, but more often than not, they either miss out on a home they loved or end up paying more overall because of rising prices.

My advice is to figure out what monthly payment you are comfortable with and what you can afford today. Get your finances in order, get pre-approved, and start your home search. You can always refinance down the line if rates do drop significantly. Many homeowners who bought homes in recent years when rates were also elevated have since refinanced to lower rates. It's a strategy that has worked for many, and it could work for you too.

The market is dynamic, and while it looks improbable that we'll see average mortgage rates plummet below 6% in the next 60 days, that doesn't mean buying a home isn't a smart move for you right now. Focus on your financial health, do your homework, and make a decision that feels right for your personal circumstances.

As of today, November 18th, mortgage rates are largely holding steady, showing a slight uptick but staying remarkably consistent. According to the latest data from Zillow, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has nudged up to 6.09%, while the 15-year fixed rate remains at 5.54%. This quiet stability suggests we're in a bit of a holding pattern, with no major shifts expected in the immediate future.

After a period of some noticeable drops, rates seem to have found a rhythm. This isn't surprising, given the economic signals we're getting – or, more accurately, the lack of strong signals. When there’s no big news to shake things up, the market tends to settle.

The bond market, which often influences mortgage rates, is also showing this same lack of direction. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key indicator, is just drifting along. This means that for now, both buying a new home and refinancing an existing one are happening at rates that aren't dramatically changing day by day.

Today's Mortgage Rates, November 18: 30-Year FRM Holds at 6.09%, Rates Remain Stable

The Latest Numbers

Let's break down what these numbers mean for you. These are the national averages provided by Zillow, rounded to the nearest hundredth. Keep in mind that your personal rate might be a little different based on your credit score, down payment, and other factors.

As you can see, refinance rates are generally a touch higher than purchase rates. This is pretty standard. Lenders sometimes offer slightly better terms for new borrowers than for those looking to change their existing loans.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

When you look at these numbers, you’ll see a few different types of loans. The most common are fixed-rate mortgages, where your interest rate and monthly payment stay the same for the entire life of the loan. Then there are adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs.

For ARMs like the 5/1 and 7/1, the initial rate is often lower than a fixed-rate loan. The “5/1” means the rate is fixed for the first five years, then it can adjust once a year based on market conditions. The “7/1” is similar but with a seven-year fixed period. These can be good if you plan to sell or refinance before the fixed period ends, but they carry the risk of higher payments later on.

The 15-Year vs. 30-Year Fixed-Rate Debate

This is a classic homeowner dilemma. Choosing between a 15-year and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage often comes down to balancing monthly affordability with long-term savings.

• 15-Year Mortgage:
  • Pros: You'll lock in a lower interest rate compared to a 30-year loan. This means you'll pay significantly less total interest over the life of the loan – think hundreds of thousands saved! You'll also build equity much faster, meaning you'll own your home outright sooner. This could be a great option if you're aiming to be mortgage-free before retirement.
  • Cons: The trade-off is higher monthly payments. This can strain your budget and leave less money for other things like investments or unexpected expenses. It can also be harder to qualify for these loans because lenders need to be sure you can handle those larger payments.
• 30-Year Mortgage:
  • Pros: The biggest advantage is lower monthly payments. This makes homeownership more accessible for many people and provides more breathing room in your monthly budget. You can also make extra payments towards the principal anytime you want without penalty, effectively allowing you to pay it off faster if your financial situation improves.
  • Cons: You'll pay a higher interest rate, which adds up to substantially more interest paid over three decades. Equity builds up more slowly, and you'll be making payments for a lot longer.

My two cents? If your budget allows for it, leaning towards the 15-year can save you a fortune in interest. But if the higher monthly payment of a 15-year loan would make things too tight, the 30-year offers vital flexibility. It's always worth running the numbers with a lender to see what makes the most sense for your personal finances.

Where Are Rates Headed? Looking Ahead

The market has been a bit of a rollercoaster recently. We saw some nice drops in mortgage rates in the weeks leading up to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in September and October of 2025. Yes, you read that right – the data reflects actions in the past year, indicating these trends are based on recent historical context rather than real-time events as of November 18th in the current year. This is a crucial detail to remember when evaluating these figures.

The Fed's move to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% in September and again in October 2025 usually has some ripple effect on mortgage rates. However, the connection isn't always direct, and the impact has been inconsistent. What’s important to note is that these 2025 rate cuts have already influenced the market, and we're now seeing rates stabilize, reflecting that past action.

Looking forward, the big question is what happens next. Economists and Wall Street analysts will be poring over upcoming economic reports, especially those concerning jobs and inflation for November. Any signs that inflation is continuing to cool down could put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Conversely, if inflation starts to heat up again, we might see rates climb.

Key Influences on Mortgage Rates

Several factors play a role in where mortgage rates go:

• Inflation: This is a major driver. When inflation is high, the Federal Reserve often raises interest rates to cool down the economy, which can push mortgage rates up. If inflation cools, rates might fall.
• Federal Reserve Policy: While mortgage rates aren't directly set by the Fed, their decisions on the federal funds rate signal their broader monetary policy. If the Fed signals more rate cuts are coming, markets might anticipate lower mortgage rates.
• Economic Data: Reports on jobs, consumer spending, and economic growth give us clues about the health of the economy. Stronger-than-expected data can sometimes lead to higher rates, while weaker data might lead to lower rates.
• Bond Market Performance: As mentioned, mortgage rates tend to track the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury note.

Forecasts and Future Possibilities

What do the experts predict for the coming years?

• Fannie Mae has projected that the average 30-year fixed rate might end 2025 around 6.3% and could ease to 5.9% by the close of 2026.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), in their October 2025 forecast, anticipates the 30-year fixed rate to hover around 6.4% throughout 2026.

These are just educated guesses, of course. The economic picture can change quickly.

One fascinating development on the horizon is the potential for portable mortgages. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is looking into allowing homeowners to transfer their existing mortgage to a new home. This could be a game-changer for people who love their current low mortgage rate but need to move. It could help ease the “golden handcuffs” effect, where people feel trapped in their homes because they don't want to give up a low-interest loan for a much higher one.

A Little Historical Perspective

It's easy to get caught up focusing on today's numbers, but it’s helpful to remember where we’ve been. While current rates are higher than the incredibly low sub-3% rates we saw during the pandemic, they are still quite competitive when you look at averages stretching back decades, even to the 1970s and 1980s. This context can help frame whether current rates are a good deal for your situation.

Ultimately, understanding today's mortgage rates is about more than just the number. It involves looking at the economic forces at play, considering your personal financial goals, and making informed decisions about your homeownership journey.

If you're thinking about buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, understanding where mortgage rates stand and who benefits the most is crucial. Currently, those who are prepared to buy or refinance, particularly those who can secure a fixed-rate loan, are in a favorable position. However, the picture is more complex, with specific groups seeing greater advantages.

Who Benefits Most from Today's Lower Mortgage Rates in 2025?

It feels like just yesterday we were obsessing over whether mortgage rates would ever dip below 7%, and then we saw them touch the 6% range. Now, as of the week of November 13th, 2025, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is sitting at 6.24%, and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 5.49%. These rates are broadly flat compared to the week before, but they represent a significant drop from a year ago. For the 30-year mortgage, that's a decrease of 0.54% from the previous year! The 15-year rate has also dropped by 0.5% in the same timeframe.

This stability, combined with a potential uptick in purchase activity, is a welcome sign for many. But who really wins when rates are in this zone? It's not a simple one-size-fits-all answer. My experience in this market tells me it's about timing, financial health, and your specific housing goals.

The Savvy Buyer: Locking in a Lower Payment

Let's start with the most direct beneficiaries: potential homebuyers. If you've been patiently waiting for rates to cool down before jumping into the housing market, this is your moment.

• Lower Monthly Payments: A lower interest rate directly translates to a lower monthly mortgage payment. Imagine putting that saved money towards other financial goals, home improvements, or even just easing your overall budget.
• Increased Buying Power: With lower rates, you can potentially afford a more expensive home for the same monthly payment you might have budgeted for a higher rate. For instance, a $300,000 loan at 7% will have a higher principal and interest payment than the same loan at 6.24%. This difference can be substantial over 30 years.

Consider this from Freddie Mac's data: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.24% is lower than the 52-week average of 6.67%. This means that if your offer is accepted now, you're likely getting a better rate than the average seen over the past year.

The Refinancer: Trimming Expenses and Accessing Equity

If you're already a homeowner, today's mortgage rates also present a golden opportunity to refinance your existing mortgage.

• Reduce Your Interest Costs: If you have a mortgage with an interest rate significantly higher than the current market rates (say, you locked in at 7% or 8% a couple of years ago), refinancing into a lower rate can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
• Change Your Loan Term: Perhaps your financial situation has improved, and you want to pay off your mortgage faster. Refinancing into a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.49% (compared to a 30-year at 6.24%) could drastically reduce your loan term and the total interest paid, although your monthly payment will likely increase due to that shorter term.
• Cash-Out Refinance: For some homeowners, these rates might make sense to tap into their home's equity. If you need funds for renovations, education, or debt consolidation, a cash-out refinance can provide that capital, potentially at a better rate than other forms of borrowing.

New Construction Shoppers: Leveraging Builder Incentives

The data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for October 2025 offers an interesting insight: while purchase applications for new homes decreased year-over-year and month-over-month, the sales pace was actually the strongest in over a year! This seems like a contradiction, but it’s a nuanced picture.

Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, points out that “lower mortgage rates, ongoing usage of builder concessions, and growing levels of for-sale inventory drove an increase in new home sales.” This is where the real benefit lies for new home buyers. Builders are motivated to sell!

• Builder Concessions: To move inventory, builders often offer incentives like paying closing costs, offering rate buy-downs (effectively lowering your interest rate for a period, or even permanently), or providing upgrades. These concessions can significantly reduce the upfront costs and the overall expense of buying a new home.
• ARM Loans: Kan also noted a significant increase in the use of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs), which were averaging almost 80 basis points lower than fixed-rate loans. While ARMs come with their own risks (rates can go up), if a buyer plans to sell or refinance before the initial fixed period ends, or if they are very comfortable with potential future rate adjustments, this can be a way to get an even lower initial rate on a new build. According to the MBA, ARMs accounted for 25% of applications in October 2025, up from 16% a year ago.

This suggests a strategic buyer looking at new construction can negotiate hard, especially if they are willing to explore options like ARMs or take advantage of builder-provided rate buy-downs. The MBA’s data shows new single-family home sales running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 771,000 units in October 2025, the strongest pace in over a year! That’s a pretty encouraging sign for the new home market, and it indicates builders are working hard to make deals happen.

The Investor: Strategic Opportunities

For real estate investors, today's mortgage rates can be a mixed bag, but they certainly create opportunities.

• Lower Acquisition Costs: Just like a primary homeowner, investors can benefit from lower borrowing costs when purchasing investment properties. This can improve their potential cash flow and return on investment.
• Refinancing Investment Portfolios: Investors with existing investment properties carrying higher-rate mortgages might find it advantageous to refinance. Lowering the interest rate on multiple properties can free up significant capital.
• Calculated Risks: Savvy investors closely watch interest rate trends and economic indicators. While stability is good, they also understand that rates can fluctuate. They might be looking to lock in current rates on properties that fit their long-term strategy, anticipating future appreciation or rental income growth.

Who Might Wait or Be Less Benefited?

While many benefit, it's important to acknowledge that not everyone is in a prime position.

• First-Time Buyers with Tight Budgets: Even with rates in the 6% range, the combination of home prices and mortgage payments can still be a hurdle for those with very limited savings or lower incomes. Affordability remains a key concern for this group.
• Those Needing to Move Urgently: If you must buy or sell due to life circumstances and don't have the luxury of waiting for optimal rates, you might feel less of a benefit. However, as we’ve seen, even if rates aren't at their absolute lowest, they are still more favorable than they have been recently.
• Cash Buyers: For those purchasing outright with cash, mortgage rates are largely irrelevant. Their benefits come from market conditions, property values, and negotiation power, not interest rates.

My Take: Preparation is Key

From my perspective, the current mortgage rate environment rewards those who are financially prepared and have done their homework. This means:

1. Good Credit Score: This is paramount. The better your credit score, the lower the interest rate you'll qualify for. Even a small difference in your rate can save you tens of thousands of dollars over 30 years.
2. Solid Down Payment: A larger down payment not only reduces the amount you need to borrow but can also help you avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI), saving you more money.
3. Pre-Approval: Getting pre-approved for a mortgage before you start house hunting gives you a clear understanding of your budget and makes your offer stronger.

The fact that purchase activity is up and new home sales are strong suggests that despite some challenges, buyers are finding ways to make it work. The rates being offered now are a significant improvement over what we've seen in the recent past, making homeownership more attainable for many.

The data from Freddie Mac indicates rates are stable, giving potential buyers and refinancers a chance to act without feeling rushed by rapidly increasing costs. The MBA’s report on new homes shows that while application numbers can fluctuate, the underlying sales activity, often boosted by builder incentives, is robust.

Ultimately, those who benefit most from today’s mortgage rates are those who are ready to seize the opportunity. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking to upgrade, or a homeowner considering a refinance, now is a great time to explore your options.