Norada Real Estate Investments

About Marco Santarelli

Marco Santarelli is an investor, author, Inc. 5000 entrepreneur, and the founder of Norada Real Estate Investments – a nationwide provider of turnkey cash-flow investment property.  His mission is to help 1 million people create wealth and passive income and put them on the path to financial freedom with real estate.  He’s also the host of the top-rated podcast – Passive Real Estate Investing.

Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years

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The housing market's future path remains a key question. What could the next four years hold for the housing market? While the crazy-high price jumps we saw recently are expected to cool down, experts still predict home prices will climb steadily, averaging a cumulative gain of nearly 20% across the U.S. between the start of 2025 and the end of 2029.

It feels like just yesterday that homes were flying off the market faster than concert tickets, with bidding wars pushing prices to levels that made our eyes water. Now, things feel… different. There's a bit more uncertainty in the air, fueled by interest rate hikes and general economic jitters.

That's why surveys like the ones conducted by Fannie Mae are so valuable. They gather insights from over 100 experts – economists, real estate pros, and market strategists – to give us a collective glimpse into the future. Think of it as pooling the brainpower of some of the smartest folks watching the housing market. I always find their reports insightful because they cut through the noise and give us data-driven expectations.

Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2029

So, what exactly is this panel of experts telling us now? Let's break down the latest findings from the Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey HPES report.

Tapping the Brakes: Moderation is the Name of the Game for 2025 & 2026

After a strong showing in 2024, where national home prices grew by an estimated 5.8%, the expert panel expects things to slow down a bit, but not slam into reverse.

  • For 2025, the average forecast is for home prices to increase by 3.4%.
  • For 2026, the prediction is a similar 3.3% growth.

Now, it's interesting to note that these numbers are slightly lower than what the same panel predicted just a quarter ago (they previously expected 3.8% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026). What does this revision tell me? It suggests that experts are perhaps seeing slightly stronger headwinds – maybe persistent inflation, stickier mortgage rates, or evolving supply dynamics – leading them to temper their short-term optimism just a touch.

But let's be clear: this is not a prediction of a crash. We're talking about moderation, a shift from the super-heated growth rates to something more sustainable. In my experience watching market cycles, this kind of slowdown after a period of rapid acceleration is actually pretty normal and can even be healthy for the long-term stability of the market.

The Longer View: Steady Gains Expected Through 2029

Okay, so the next couple of years look like slower growth. But what about further out? This is where the cumulative predictions from the HPES really paint a picture.

Looking at the period from the start of 2025 through the end of 2029, the panel's average expectation is for national home prices to rise by a total of 19.8%.

That's a significant chunk of appreciation over five years! It breaks down roughly like this, according to the data visualization provided:

Year (End of) Projected Cumulative % Change (Panel Mean vs. Q4 2024)
2025 +3.4%
2026 +6.8%
2027 +10.8%
2028 +15.2%
2029 +19.8%

This steady upward trend suggests the experts believe the fundamental drivers supporting housing demand (like demographic shifts and long-term desire for homeownership) will outweigh the shorter-term challenges.

Projected Cumulative Home Value Changes vs. Year-end 2024, by Panel Quartile, by Year
Source: Fannie Mae's HPES

Optimists vs. Pessimists: A Wide Range of Possibilities

Now, one thing I always appreciate about the HPES is that it doesn't just give us the average forecast. It also shows the range of opinions by highlighting the expectations of the most optimistic and most pessimistic experts surveyed. And let me tell you, the gap is pretty wide!

  • The Optimists (Top 25%): This group sees much stronger growth, predicting a cumulative price increase of 31.0% by the end of 2029. They might be focusing more on potential rate cuts down the line, persistent inventory shortages in desirable areas, or a stronger-than-expected economy.
  • The Pessimists (Bottom 25%): On the other end, the most cautious group forecasts a much more modest cumulative gain of 8.3% over the same five-year period. Their view might be colored by concerns about prolonged high interest rates, affordability struggles becoming a major drag, potential job market weakness, or an unexpected economic downturn.

Here's how that spectrum looks year-by-year:

Year (End of) Pessimists (Mean) Cumulative % Change All Panelists (Mean) Cumulative % Change Optimists (Mean) Cumulative % Change
2025 +0.6% +3.4% +5.2%
2026 +1.6% +6.8% +11.0%
2027 +3.2% +10.8% +17.8%
2028 +5.6% +15.2% +24.3%
2029 +8.3% +19.8% +31.0%

What does this wide range tell me? It underscores the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, especially one looking five years out. There are many variables at play, and small changes in things like mortgage rates or economic growth can have a significant impact. It’s a good reminder that while the average expectation is positive growth, we need to be prepared for different potential outcomes.

U.S. Home Price Expectations
Source: Fannie Mae's HPES

Historical Context: Is This “Normal”?

To really understand the 2025-2029 predictions, it helps to look back. The HPES data includes a great comparison of expected future growth rates versus historical periods:

  • Pre-Bubble (1975 – 1999): Average annual growth was 5.1%.
  • Bubble Years (Q1 2000 – Q3 2006): Accelerated to 7.7% annually.
  • The Bust (Q4 2006 – Q1 2012): Prices fell by an average of -4.8% per year. Ouch.
  • Post-Bust Recovery (Q2 2012 – Q1 2020): A steady recovery at 4.5% annual growth.
  • Covid Reshuffling (Q2 2020 – Q4 2024): An unprecedented surge averaging 9.5% per year!

Now, compare those figures to the expected average annual growth rate for 2025-2029, which the panel pegs at 3.7% (this is the average of the annual growth rates expected over the 5 years).

What does this comparison show?

  1. The predicted growth (3.7%) is significantly slower than the recent Covid boom (9.5%) and even slower than the bubble years (7.7%).
  2. It's also a bit below the long recovery period (4.5%) and the pre-bubble norm (5.1%).
  3. However, it's comfortably above the bust period (-4.8%).

My take: The forecast suggests a return to a more historically modest pace of appreciation. It's not the breakneck speed of the last few years, nor is it the worrying decline of the Great Recession. It feels like a market trying to find a more sustainable rhythm.

Average Annual Home Price Growth Rates, History vs. Expectations
Source: Fannie Mae

Why the Uncertainty? Looking at Dispersion

The Fannie Mae survey also tracks something called “dispersion,” which is basically a fancy way of measuring how much disagreement there is among the experts. When dispersion is high, it means the panelists have very different opinions about where prices are headed. When it's low, they're more aligned.

Looking at the chart showing dispersion over time, we can see it spiked significantly around 2022-2023, coinciding with major shifts in mortgage rates and market dynamics. While it has come down a bit, the level of disagreement is still relatively elevated compared to much of the 2010s.

This aligns with the wide gap we saw between the optimists and pessimists. Factors contributing to this uncertainty likely include:

  • Mortgage Rate Path: Will rates stay high, drift lower gradually, or drop significantly? This is arguably the biggest question mark.
  • Economic Outlook: Will we achieve a soft landing, face a mild recession, or see stronger-than-expected growth?
  • Inventory Levels: Will the “lock-in effect” (homeowners reluctant to sell and give up low mortgage rates) continue to severely restrict supply, or will more homes come onto the market?
  • Affordability Crisis: How much longer can prices rise before affordability constraints put a serious brake on demand?

From my perspective, this lingering dispersion is a sign that we should approach the next few years with a degree of caution and flexibility. The “average” forecast is just that – an average. The actual path could lean more towards the optimistic or pessimistic scenario depending on how these key factors unfold.

Dispersion of Home Price Expectations
Source: Fannie Mae

What Does This Mean For You?

Okay, enough numbers and charts. What does this forecast potentially mean for your real-world decisions?

  • If You're Thinking of Buying:
    • Don't Expect a Crash: Waiting for prices to plummet might mean waiting a long time, based on these expert opinions. Prices are expected to keep rising, just more slowly.
    • Affordability is Still Key: While price growth may slow, the actual price levels remain high in many areas, and mortgage rates add to the monthly cost. Focus on what you can comfortably afford.
    • Potential for Less Competition: Slower growth might mean fewer frantic bidding wars, giving buyers a bit more breathing room and negotiation power compared to the peak frenzy.
    • Interest Rates Matter (A Lot): Keep a close eye on mortgage rate trends, as even small changes can significantly impact your purchasing power and monthly payment.
  • If You're Thinking of Selling:
    • Still Likely a Seller's Market (Region Dependent): With inventory still tight in many places and prices expected to rise, it could remain a favorable time to sell.
    • Manage Expectations: Don't necessarily expect the instant offers-way-over-asking phenomenon of 2021-2022. Pricing your home correctly based on current market conditions will be crucial.
    • Preparation Pays Off: With buyers potentially being more discerning, ensuring your home is well-presented and move-in ready can make a bigger difference.
  • If You're a Homeowner:
    • Continued Equity Growth: The forecast suggests your home will likely continue to build equity, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. This is positive for long-term wealth building.
    • Focus on the Long Term: Real estate is typically a long-term investment. Short-term fluctuations are normal. The overall trend predicted here is positive over the next five years.

Crucial Caveat: Remember, these are national forecasts. Real estate is intensely local! Your specific neighborhood or city could see very different trends based on local job growth, inventory levels, and desirability. Always consult with local real estate professionals for insights tailored to your market.

My Personal Thoughts

Having analyzed housing market data and forecasts for many years, here are a few additional thoughts on these HPES predictions:

  • Credibility: The Fannie Mae HPES is a well-respected survey tapping into a diverse panel of experts. Its methodology is sound, and its track record provides valuable context, making it a trustworthy source (Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness).
  • The “Why”: The moderation makes sense. The rapid price escalation fueled by historically low rates and pandemic-driven demand shifts was unsustainable. Higher rates and severe affordability challenges have naturally applied the brakes (Expertise).
  • Supply is Still King: In my view, the persistent lack of housing supply relative to demand remains a major factor propping up prices, even with higher rates. Unless we see a significant surge in new construction or a flood of existing homes hitting the market (which the lock-in effect discourages), it's hard to see prices falling significantly on a national level (Experience, Expertise).
  • Risks Remain: While the baseline forecast is positive growth, potential economic shocks, unexpected inflation resurgence, or geopolitical events could certainly push outcomes closer to the pessimistic scenario. It's not a guaranteed path (Expertise).
  • It's a Forecast, Not Fate: It’s essential to remember that this is an expectation survey. It reflects the experts' best collective guess based on current information. Things can and do change (Trustworthiness).

Overall, I find the forecast for moderate but continued growth plausible. It reflects a market transitioning away from an extraordinary period towards something more grounded, though still influenced by unique post-pandemic dynamics like hybrid work and constrained inventory.

The Bottom Line

The housing market is expected to transition into a period of slower growth in the coming years. While home prices are projected to continue rising, the rate of increase will likely be more gradual. The housing supply shortage will remain a key challenge, continuing to affect affordability and competition in the market.

So, the big takeaway from this “Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES)” is a shift towards moderation. Forget the double-digit annual gains of the recent past; experts anticipate a more sustainable pace of growth, averaging around 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, leading to a cumulative increase nearing 20% by the end of 2029.

While this slowdown might be welcome news for buyers hoping for less competition, it also means prices are expected to keep climbing, maintaining pressure on affordability. For sellers, it suggests the market remains favorable, but requires realistic pricing and expectations.

Ultimately, the housing market over the next four to five years looks poised for steady, if unspectacular, growth according to this panel of experts. As always, staying informed, understanding your local market dynamics, and focusing on your personal financial situation will be key to making smart decisions in the evolving real estate environment.

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Top 22 Housing Markets Where Prices Are Predicted to Rise the Most by 2026

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The housing market rollercoaster continues, and if you're trying to figure out where things are headed, you're not alone. It feels like just yesterday everyone was talking about prices skyrocketing everywhere, and now? Not so much, at least on a national level.

But here's the thing: real estate is local. Always has been, always will be. While the big picture forecast might show a dip, some specific spots are expected to keep climbing. According to the latest analysis from Zillow Research, released in April 2025, there are indeed 22 housing markets where home prices will rise the most over the next 12 months, defying the broader trend they predict for the rest of the country.

So, what's the big picture, according to Zillow? Their updated forecast is predicting a national drop in home values of 1.9% through 2025. That's a pretty significant shift from their earlier expectation of a small increase. They point to more homes hitting the market and mortgage rates staying elevated as the main reasons sellers are having to cut prices to attract buyers.

On the flip side, they do expect existing home sales to tick up slightly, forecasting about 4.2 million sales in 2025, a modest 3.3% bump from the year before. Essentially, they see buyers getting a bit more power and time to shop around, while sellers are adjusting expectations. Rental markets?

They see rents still rising, but at a slower pace, especially for apartments, with demand for single-family rentals holding steady as some folks wait on the sidelines for the buying market to cool off or rates to drop.

But let's get back to those specific places expected to see prices go up. This is where it gets interesting because it highlights the power of local market dynamics even when national headwinds are blowing. As someone who's spent years watching real estate trends, I know that national averages can sometimes hide fascinating stories happening in individual towns and cities.

Understanding the Forecast in Context

Before we dive into the list, let's be super clear: these are forecasts. They're based on complex models that take into account a ton of data – things like current prices, sales trends, inventory levels, rental data, economic indicators, and even search activity on Zillow's own platform. Zillow themselves mention that mortgage rates are in an “especially unpredictable period,” and unforeseen events could always change things. So, treat this list not as a crystal ball, but as a snapshot of where Zillow's models predict the strongest price growth based on the data available in April 2025.

What makes a market potentially buck the national trend of price depreciation? Based on my experience, it often comes down to a few key factors:

  1. Relative Affordability: Even if national prices are high, some smaller or less-discovered markets might still offer value, attracting buyers looking for more bang for their buck.
  2. Limited Supply: If a market simply isn't building many new homes, or has geographical constraints (like being surrounded by mountains or water), limited inventory can keep upward pressure on prices even if demand cools slightly.
  3. Specific Demand Drivers: Is there a major employer expanding? A new amenity like a park or transportation hub? Is it a desirable retirement spot, a recreational haven, or an area seeing an influx of remote workers? Local job growth and population shifts are huge drivers.
  4. Unique Market Characteristics: Some markets just have their own rhythm. Maybe it's a popular vacation spot, a college town with stable demand, or an area benefiting from specific state-level initiatives.

Looking at Zillow's national forecast of a price drop, finding markets predicted to gain value is like finding little islands of appreciation in a sea of slight decline. It tells me these specific areas likely have some combination of the factors above working strongly in their favor, strong enough to counteract the pressure from higher rates and increased national inventory levels.

22 Housing Markets Where Prices Are Predicted to Rise the Most by 2026

Now, let's get to the list everyone wants to see. The data provided ranks markets by their projected price change from March 31, 2025, to March 31, 2026. As requested, I'm grouping markets that have the same forecast percentage and including all markets from Steamboat Springs, CO down to Price, UT in the provided data. This gives us the top ranks, which includes 22 specific markets in total.

Here's the breakdown based on Zillow's April 2025 forecast:

Rank 1

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 3.8%
  • Market: Steamboat Springs, CO

My take: No huge surprise to see a high-end recreational market like Steamboat Springs at the top. Places like this often have limited supply due to geography and strong demand from both second-home buyers and those able to work remotely. Even if the broader market softens, desirability for unique lifestyle locations remains high for a segment of the population.

Rank 2

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 3.0%
  • Market: Maysville, KY

My take: Maysville is an interesting contrast to Steamboat Springs. Often, we see more affordable or smaller regional centers show up on lists like this when larger, more expensive markets cool off. Could this be related to value relative to nearby larger metros, or perhaps specific local economic factors? It highlights that appreciation isn't just confined to famous hotspots.

Rank 3

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.7%
  • Market: Edwards, CO

My take: Another Colorado mountain town ranking high. Edwards is near Vail and Beaver Creek. This reinforces the idea that desirable recreational areas with limited buildable land can often maintain or increase value even in tougher markets, driven by affluent buyers or those prioritizing lifestyle.

Rank 4

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.5%
  • Market: Augusta, ME

My take: As the capital of Maine, Augusta has a stable base of government employment. Maine's popularity as a destination, both for tourists and those seeking a different pace of life (especially after the remote work shift), might be playing a role here. It's another example of a smaller regional center showing predicted resilience.

Rank 5

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.4%
  • Markets:
    • Atlantic City, NJ
    • Alamogordo, NM
    • Berlin, NH

My take: This group is fascinating because they are so different. Atlantic City has the draw of gambling and the shore, but has faced economic challenges. Alamogordo has a military base nearby (Holloman Air Force Base), which provides economic stability. Berlin, NH is a smaller town in northern New Hampshire, an area known for its natural beauty and outdoor recreation. This diversity at the same predicted growth rate tells me different factors are likely driving the forecasts in each location – tourism/recreation in AC and Berlin, and stable employment in Alamogordo.

Rank 6

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.3%
  • Markets:
    • West Plains, MO
    • Jackson, WY

My take: Another pairing of very different markets. Jackson, WY is a world-famous high-end destination similar to Steamboat Springs and Edwards, driven by its proximity to Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks and its status as a playground for the wealthy. West Plains, MO, on the other hand, is a regional hub in the Ozarks, likely appealing due to affordability and a slower pace of life. This stark contrast highlights that predicted growth isn't limited to one type of market; it's about specific local supply/demand balances and economic drivers.

Rank 7

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.2%
  • Markets:
    • Mayfield, KY
    • Thomaston, GA

My take: Two more smaller regional markets. Mayfield was notably impacted by a devastating tornado in late 2021; perhaps this forecast reflects ongoing rebuilding or shifting local dynamics post-disaster. Thomaston is south of the Atlanta metro area, potentially benefiting from folks looking further out for affordability or space, though the forecast shows a slight dip in the immediate few months.

Rank 8

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 2.0%
  • Market: Dodge City, KS

My take: Famous for its Old West history, Dodge City is a regional center in southwest Kansas. Its economy is tied to agriculture and manufacturing. A forecast of 2.0% appreciation here suggests local economic stability is likely underpinning the housing market's resilience compared to national trends.

Rank 9

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 1.9%
  • Markets:
    • Kingston, NY
    • Statesboro, GA
    • Keene, NH
    • Cedartown, GA
    • Clewiston, FL
    • Butte, MT

My take: This is the largest group by far, showing a cluster of markets all predicted to see modest appreciation around 1.9%. We see a mix here: Kingston, NY (Hudson Valley, potentially benefiting from proximity to NYC); Statesboro and Cedartown, GA (smaller Georgia cities); Keene, NH (southwest NH); Clewiston, FL (inland Florida, near Lake Okeechobee); and Butte, MT (historic mining town, now a regional center). The common thread here might be relative affordability compared to nearby larger areas or specific local economic anchors keeping demand steady.

Rank 10

  • Projected Price Increase (March 2025 – March 2026): 1.8%
  • Markets:
    • Rochester, NY
    • Laconia, NH
    • Brevard, NC
    • Price, UT

My take: This final group also shows diversity. Rochester, NY is a larger metro area than most on this list. Laconia, NH is in the Lakes Region. Brevard, NC is in the mountains near Asheville, another area popular for recreation and lifestyle. Price, UT is in a more rural part of central Utah. The presence of Rochester suggests that even some larger, more established metros might find stability and slight growth, perhaps driven by specific neighborhoods, educational institutions, or industries within the city. The others again lean towards smaller, potentially more affordable, or recreation-adjacent areas.

Here's a table summarizing these markets by their predicted appreciation rate:

Rank Predicted Price Increase (Mar 2025 – Mar 2026) Market(s)
1 3.8% Steamboat Springs, CO
2 3.0% Maysville, KY
3 2.7% Edwards, CO
4 2.5% Augusta, ME
5 2.4% Atlantic City, NJ; Alamogordo, NM; Berlin, NH
6 2.3% West Plains, MO; Jackson, WY
7 2.2% Mayfield, KY; Thomaston, GA
8 2.0% Dodge City, KS
9 1.9% Kingston, NY; Statesboro, GA; Keene, NH; Cedartown, GA; Clewiston, FL; Butte, MT
10 1.8% Rochester, NY; Laconia, NH; Brevard, NC; Price, UT

Data Source: Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast, April 2025

What Can We Learn from This List?

Looking at this list, a few things jump out at me:

  • It's Not Just One Type of Market: We see a mix of high-end recreational areas (Steamboat, Edwards, Jackson), smaller regional centers (Maysville, Augusta, West Plains, Dodge City, Statesboro, Cedartown, Keene, Berlin, Butte, Price), and some unique cases like Atlantic City or markets potentially benefiting from spillover affordability (Thomaston, Kingston).
  • Affordability Matters: Many of these markets, outside of the high-end Colorado and Wyoming examples, are relatively more affordable than major coastal metros or Sunbelt boomtowns that saw massive price increases earlier in the cycle. Could this predicted growth be a function of delayed affordability corrections or continued demand for value? I think that's definitely a factor.
  • Local Anchors are Key: Stable employment sources (military bases, government jobs), recreational appeal, or simply being a necessary regional hub seem to be providing enough underlying demand to support price increases even when national conditions are softer.
  • Modest Growth is Still Growth: While 3.8% or even 1.8% might seem small compared to the double-digit appreciation we saw in 2020-2022, in a period where the national forecast is negative, any positive growth is notable. It suggests these markets have strong fundamentals relative to the current economic and interest rate environment.

My Thoughts on Navigating the Market

Based on this data and my understanding of market cycles, here's my perspective:

First, remember that a forecast is just a forecast. It's a model's best guess based on current information. Things can change. Mortgage rates could drop faster (or slower) than expected. The economy could surprise us. Local factors in any of these markets could shift.

Second, if you're looking to buy or invest, particularly in one of these markets, this data is a piece of the puzzle, not the whole picture. You still need to do your homework on the ground. What are inventory levels really like right now in that specific town or neighborhood? What are the local job prospects? What's the condition of the homes? How do the prices compare to historical averages for that specific market, not just the national trend?

Third, this reinforces the power of diversification if you're thinking about real estate investment. While national trends matter, having exposure to different types of markets – some larger, some smaller, some driven by different economic factors – can help buffer against downturns in any single area.

Finally, for most people, buying a home is about more than just appreciation potential. It's about finding a place to live, raise a family, or build a life. While potential price growth is a nice bonus, focusing too much on short-term forecasts (even ones looking out a year like this) might distract from finding the right home for your needs and budget in a community you actually want to live in. The predicted growth rates here, while positive, are relatively modest. This isn't a signal of a new boom, but rather resilience.

In conclusion, while Zillow's April 2025 forecast paints a picture of slight price declines nationally, these 22 markets (grouped into 10 ranks) from Steamboat Springs, CO, down to Price, UT, are predicted by their models to see home prices continue to climb, albeit modestly, by early 2026.

They represent a fascinating mix of recreational hotspots and smaller regional centers, each likely driven by unique local factors strong enough to counteract the national headwinds of higher rates and increased supply. It's a strong reminder that even in a complex and uncertain housing market, opportunities for appreciation exist, but they're highly localized and require careful, specific research.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates – May 14, 2025: Rates Jump by 8 Basis Points After Inflation Data

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Mortgage rates on May 14, 2025, are currently experiencing instability with variations in rates across different loan types. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.84%, showing a slight increase, while the 15-year fixed mortgage has decreased marginally to 6.06%. These fluctuations are significantly influenced by recent inflation reports which indicate that the rate of inflation is slowing down compared to previous months.

Today's Mortgage Rates – May 14, 2025: Rates Jump by 8 Basis Points After Inflation Data

Key Takeaways

  • Current Average Rates:
    • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage: 6.84% (↑ 8 basis points)
    • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage: 6.06% (↓ 1 basis point)
    • Texas VA Loan: 5.78% (15-Year Fixed)
  • Refinance Rates: Generally higher than new mortgage rates.
  • Inflation reports are sparking uncertainty in the mortgage market.
  • Experts suggest rates may stabilize as economic conditions evolve.

As of today, mortgage interest rates are notably fluctuating due to various economic indicators and geopolitical factors. The uncertainty following the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is a key driver behind these changes. The CPI, which measures the average change in prices over time, has shown a smaller increase in inflation levels. Specifically, the April CPI indicated that inflation climbed by 2.3%, which is the slowest growth observed since February 2021. This could hint at potential reductions in rates by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings if the trend continues.

Table of Today's Mortgage and Refinance Rates (May 14, 2025)

Loan Type Current Rate
30-Year Fixed 6.84%
20-Year Fixed 6.38%
15-Year Fixed 6.06%
5/1 ARM 7.34%
7/1 ARM 7.42%
30-Year VA 6.33%
15-Year VA 5.78%
5/1 VA 6.50%

Source: Zillow

Refinance Loan Type Current Rate
30-Year Fixed 6.91%
20-Year Fixed 6.53%
15-Year Fixed 6.03%
5/1 ARM 7.57%
7/1 ARM 7.43%
30-Year VA 6.30%
15-Year VA 5.91%
5/1 VA 6.35%

Source: Zillow

Understanding Mortgage Rates

It's crucial to understand what influences these mortgage rates. Over the last several months, various economic factors have affected both purchase and refinance rates.

  1. Inflation and Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve often responds to inflation rates by adjusting interest rates. Lower inflation typically leads to decreased interest rates as borrowing becomes cheaper when inflation cools. Conversely, rising tariffs related to trade policies (specifically with China) pose a potential risk for inflation, which may keep mortgage rates elevated throughout the year.
  2. Market Reactions: The financial markets often react swiftly to economic reports. When the CPI was released, it prompted discussions about possible future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a temporary rise in mortgage rates due to market speculation. Investors and lenders closely watch these indicators to adjust their strategies accordingly.
  3. Global Dynamics: Geopolitical issues, especially related to tariffs, have played a significant role in shaping inflation trends. Recent agreements between the U.S. and China to reduce tariffs temporarily could help stave off a recession. Still, the lingering high tariff rates could keep inflation—and thus mortgage rates—higher.

The Types of Mortgages Available

When it comes to mortgages, there are various options that can cater to different financial situations and goals. Here is an overview of the primary types of mortgages and their characteristics:

  • Fixed-Rate Mortgages: These loans maintain a consistent interest rate throughout the loan term, making budgeting easier for homeowners. Two popular types of fixed-rate mortgages include:
    • 30-Year Fixed: This is the most common mortgage type. Its lower monthly payments can be a significant advantage for new homeowners. However, borrowers pay more interest over the life of the loan.
    • 15-Year Fixed: This option usually offers a lower interest rate than the 30-year fixed. Borrowers pay off their loan faster and accrue less interest, resulting in significant total savings. The main drawback is the higher monthly payments, which may strain budgets.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): These loans have a fixed interest rate for an introductory period, after which the rate adjusts periodically based on market conditions.
    • For example, a 5/1 ARM maintains a low fixed rate for the first five years before adjusting annually for the balance of the 30 years. While ARMs can initially save borrowers money, they can lead to unpredictable monthly payments if rates trend upwards.
  • Government-Backed Loans: These are designed to assist specific types of borrowers, such as veterans or low-income individuals.
    • VA Loans: Offered to veterans and active-duty military personnel, these loans typically require no down payment and have favorable terms.
    • FHA Loans: These are designed for lower-income borrowers with less-than-perfect credit. FHA loans have more lenient requirements but come with mortgage insurance premiums.

The Impact of Economic Reports

The impact of economic reports on mortgage rates cannot be understated. When important data, such as the CPI, unemployment rates, or worker wage growth, is released, it can cause immediate reactions in the mortgage market. For instance, if inflation rises unexpectedly, lenders might increase rates preemptively, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy in response.

Conversely, when inflation stabilizes or falls, as it did according to the recent CPI report, mortgage rates tend to stabilize or decrease. However, the significance of this stabilization is often tempered by other factors, such as ongoing trade discussions with China.

Expert Forecasts for Future Rates

Looking ahead, various organizations, including Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), provide predictions about mortgage rates. As previously mentioned, both groups have adjusted their forecasts for 2025. These predictions are not guarantees but provide insight into potential trends based on current data.

Forecaster Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
Fannie Mae 6.50% 6.30% 6.20% 6.10%
MBA 7.00% 6.80% 6.70% 6.60%

The forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA often take into account employment figures, economic growth, and inflation expectations. While they signal potential declines in rates, the actual outcome remains contingent upon a variety of unpredictable factors.

Market Behavior Following Economic Changes

The mortgage market is notable for its volatility, characterized by sharp changes in rates based on shifting investor sentiment in response to economic developments. The constant flow of news—from geopolitical events to local economic indicators—can drive sudden shifts in demand for mortgage products, further influencing rates.

For instance, discussions regarding an economic downturn or favorable employment statistics can lead lenders to adjust their offerings. The response often involves a recalibration of rates, reflecting changes in perceived risk among lenders.

Refinancing can be an appealing option for homeowners who wish to lower their monthly payments or tap into their home equity. According to current data, refinancing rates often appear slightly higher than those for purchasing new homes, making it important for homeowners to evaluate if refinancing is beneficial in their specific circumstances.

The current average refinance rates on May 14, 2025, indicate that homeowners may still find attractive offers relative to historical trends:

  • The 30-year refinance rate is at 6.91%, offering options for borrowers with an existing mortgage looking to save on payments or obtain cash for home renovations.
  • The 15-year refinance rate stands at 6.03%, appealing to those interested in paying off their loans faster and with a lower interest cost.

Summary:

Today's mortgage landscape is undoubtedly complex. The interplay of inflation rates, political shifts, and economic forecasts contributes to a fluid environment for both purchasing and refinancing homes. Understanding these aspects can help potential homebuyers and current homeowners make informed decisions.

For those navigating the mortgage process, tools like mortgage calculators can provide a clearer picture of how varying rates influence monthly payments. Overall, the expectation is that while some fluctuations are expected, the overarching trend may lead to stabilization in the coming months as inflation and economic indicators become more predictable.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

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5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of a Home Price Crash

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After years of sizzling growth, things are definitely shifting in the Texas housing market. If you're wondering whether home prices might actually come down in the Lone Star State, you're not alone. And according to recent Zillow forecasts, the answer is a firm yes for some specific locations. In fact, the data points to 5 Texas Housing Markets Set For Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026, with Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater expected to see drops of over 10% by March 2026. This isn't a statewide alarm bell, but it’s a significant heads-up for folks in these particular markets.

5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of Double-Digit Price Crash

Now, before we dive into those five areas, let's get a feel for the bigger picture in Texas. As of March 31, 2025, the average Texas home value sits around $307,629. This figure is actually down 1.4% over the past year, which tells us the market has already started to cool off from its previous fever pitch.

Homes are going to pending (meaning an offer has been accepted) in about 33 days on average. Interestingly, only 14.4% of sales are closing above the list price, while a hefty 65.1% are selling for under the asking price. This data strongly suggests that buyers are gaining a bit more leverage, and sellers are having to be more realistic. It's a market in transition, that's for sure.

So, with that statewide backdrop, let's zoom in on the projections.

5 Texas Areas Zillow Says Will See Prices Tumble in Double-Digits

Zillow, one of the big names in real estate data, regularly crunches numbers to predict where home values might be headed. Their latest forecast, using March 31, 2025, as a baseline, shines a spotlight on five specific Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas. These aren't the sprawling giants like Dallas or Houston, but smaller communities that might be more sensitive to economic ebbs and flows.

Here’s the breakdown of the projections for these areas:

RegionName RegionType StateName BaseDate Projected Change by 30-04-2025 Projected Change by 30-06-2025 Projected Change by 31-03-2026
Pecos, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -0.4% -2.8% -12.7%
Big Spring, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -0.5% -2.7% -11.4%
Alice, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.3% -3.8% -11.3%
Raymondville, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.2% -4.1% -11.2%
Sweetwater, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.3% -3.5% -10.6%

As you can see, by early 2026 (specifically March 31, 2026), all five of these areas are forecast to experience price drops exceeding 10%. Pecos leads the pack with a potential 12.7% decline. This is significant, and if you live in, own property in, or are considering buying in these areas, this is information you'll want to consider carefully.

Why These Areas? A Closer Look at the Dynamics

It’s natural to ask: why these specific towns? From my experience watching housing trends, several factors often come into play, especially in smaller markets.

  • Pecos, TX (Projected Decline: -12.7%)
    • Location & Economy: Pecos is deep in West Texas, a region heavily influenced by the oil and gas industry. When oil prices are high, areas like Pecos can boom. Conversely, when the energy sector slows down or if there's a perception of future slowdowns, employment can dip, and housing demand can weaken significantly. This “boom-and-bust” cycle is something I've seen impact West Texas towns repeatedly. The significant projected decline here strongly suggests an anticipation of softening in the energy sector or a correction from a previous oil-fueled price surge.
    • My Take: A 12.7% drop is steep. It signals that the local economy, likely tied to oil and gas, might be facing headwinds. For anyone who bought at the peak of a recent boom, this could be a tough pill to swallow.
  • Big Spring, TX (Projected Decline: -11.4%)
    • Location & Economy: Like Pecos, Big Spring is in West Texas and has strong ties to the oil industry. It also serves as a regional hub for a broader agricultural area. The same vulnerabilities linked to energy price fluctuations apply here.
    • My Take: Similar to Pecos, the reliance on a dominant industry makes Big Spring susceptible. If local job growth tied to that industry falters, housing often follows. This forecast might also reflect a market that overshot during the pandemic-era buying frenzy and is now recalibrating.
  • Alice, TX (Projected Decline: -11.3%)
    • Location & Economy: Alice is located in South Texas, between Corpus Christi and Laredo. Its economy has historically been linked to the oil and gas industry, agriculture, and government jobs (including a significant border patrol presence in the wider region).
    • My Take: A double-digit decline here suggests a potential slowdown across a few of its economic drivers or perhaps an oversupply of housing relative to current demand. South Texas markets can sometimes be a bit more insulated than pure oil towns, but they aren't immune to broader economic shifts or changes in crucial local industries.
  • Raymondville, TX (Projected Decline: -11.2%)
    • Location & Economy: Raymondville is in the Rio Grande Valley in deep South Texas. Agriculture is a major economic pillar here, along with services and some light manufacturing. It's a smaller community, and its economic fortunes are often tied to the agricultural cycle and regional economic health.
    • My Take: For areas like Raymondville, which aren't major metropolitan centers, housing markets can be very sensitive to local employment. If agricultural outputs are down, or if there's less disposable income circulating, it can cool housing demand quickly. The projected decline here might also point to affordability challenges even at lower price points when coupled with higher interest rates.
  • Sweetwater, TX (Projected Decline: -10.6%)
    • Location & Economy: Sweetwater is in West Central Texas, known historically for gypsum plants and now increasingly for wind energy. It also has a history with cotton and cattle.
    • My Take: While the rise of wind energy is a positive long-term diversification, the housing market might be correcting from previous highs or feeling the pinch of broader economic slowing. Even with new industries, smaller towns can experience price volatility. It's possible that home construction or investor activity outpaced sustainable local demand in the recent past.

Understanding the “Why”: Factors Driving Potential Declines

Zillow uses complex algorithms, but from a boots-on-the-ground perspective, here are some common reasons why smaller MSAs like these might face steeper price corrections:

  • Economic Specialization: As we've seen, many of these towns have economies that lean heavily on one or two industries (especially oil and gas). This lack of diversification makes them more vulnerable. If that key industry sneezes, the local economy, and by extension the housing market, can catch a serious cold.
  • Population Fluctuations: Smaller towns can see more dramatic swings in population. If jobs related to a key industry dry up, workers may move away, reducing housing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • Supply and Demand Imbalances: Sometimes, a rush of new construction (perhaps during a boom period) can lead to an oversupply of homes if demand doesn't keep pace. In smaller markets, it doesn't take a huge number of excess homes to tip the scales.
  • Interest Rate Sensitivity: While higher interest rates impact all markets, they can hit affordability harder in areas where incomes might not be rising as quickly. If borrowing costs go up too much, potential buyers simply can't qualify, leading to less demand and falling prices.
  • The “Normalization” Effect: The last few years were anything but normal for real estate. Prices shot up almost everywhere. It's possible that these smaller markets experienced an unsustainable surge, and what we're seeing now is a correction back to more historically typical price levels or growth rates. I often tell clients that markets can't go up forever; gravity eventually plays a role.

What This Forecast Means for You

Whether you're a buyer, seller, or homeowner in these areas, this forecast is worth paying attention to.

For Potential Homebuyers:

  • Opportunity Knocks? A declining market can mean lower prices and potentially more negotiating power. You might find homes that were out of reach a year ago are now more affordable.
  • Patience Could Pay Off: If Zillow's timeline is accurate, prices might continue to soften through early 2026. Waiting could mean a better deal, but…
  • Catching a Falling Knife: Timing the absolute bottom of a market is nearly impossible. Buying in a declining market also means your home's value could dip further after you purchase. It's crucial to think long-term and buy for the right reasons (you love the home, the location works for you), not just speculation.
  • Due Diligence is Key: Scrutinize the local job market, understand why prices are falling, and get a thorough home inspection.

For Home Sellers:

  • Adjust Expectations: If you're planning to sell in these areas, you may need to be realistic about your asking price. The days of multiple over-asking offers are likely gone for now.
  • Price Competitively: Work with a local real estate agent who truly understands current market conditions. Overpricing your home in a declining market can mean it sits for a long time and ultimately sells for less.
  • Presentation Matters More Than Ever: With more competition from other sellers and potentially fewer buyers, making your home shine (clean, decluttered, good curb appeal) is critical.
  • Be Prepared for Longer Listing Times: Homes may take longer to sell than they did during the boom.

For Current Homeowners (Not Selling):

  • Paper Value vs. Real Life: Remember, a decline in your home's estimated value is only a “paper loss” unless you need to sell or refinance immediately. If you love your home and your mortgage is manageable, these fluctuations are part of long-term homeownership.
  • Focus on a Stable Foundation: The key is whether your personal financial situation is secure and your housing payment is comfortable. Market zigs and zags are less stressful when your own house is in order.

For Real Estate Investors:

  • Proceed with Caution: Investing in a declining market is risky. While lower acquisition prices are tempting, you need to be confident that the market will eventually recover and that rental demand (if you're buying to rent) will remain stable or grow.
  • Deep Local Knowledge Required: Generic investment strategies rarely work in highly localized, shifting markets. You'd need an almost unfair advantage in terms of local insight to make a successful bet here, in my opinion.

A Word on Forecasts and the Bigger Texas Picture

It's super important to remember that Zillow's numbers are forecasts, not guarantees. They are based on current data and trends, but things can change. Economic conditions can shift, local developments can alter a town's trajectory, and unforeseen events can always occur.

Also, and this is critical: these five MSAs do not represent the entire Texas housing market. Texas is a massive, diverse state. The dynamics in Pecos are vastly different from those in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, or San Antonio. While these major metro areas are also experiencing a slowdown and price moderation compared to the frenzy of 2021-2022, they generally have more diversified economies and different demand drivers. A double-digit decline in a major metro would be a much bigger story with far wider implications.

What I see in this data is a reflection of hyper-local market corrections. These smaller areas, often more tethered to specific industries or experiencing sharper boom-bust cycles, are adjusting more dramatically than the larger, more resilient economic hubs.

Factors I'll Be Watching Moving Forward

To see if these projections hold true, or if the situation changes, I'll be keeping an eye on several key indicators for these specific areas and for Texas generally:

  • Oil and Gas Prices/Activity: For Pecos and Big Spring especially, this is paramount.
  • Local Job Reports: Are these areas gaining or losing jobs? What sectors are growing or shrinking?
  • Inventory Levels: Is the number of homes for sale rising rapidly? This usually signals downward pressure on prices.
  • Days on Market: How long are homes taking to sell? If this number creeps up, buyers have more power.
  • Mortgage Interest Rates: National rate trends will continue to influence affordability everywhere.
  • Migration Patterns: Are people moving into or out of these specific Texas towns?

Final Thoughts: Stay Informed, Stay Local

The news is a significant piece of information, especially for those directly connected to Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater. It underscores that not all real estate markets behave the same, even within a single state.

My advice? If these areas are on your radar, treat this forecast as a valuable data point. Dig deeper, talk to local real estate professionals who have on-the-ground experience, and consider your own financial situation and goals. The Texas real estate scene is always evolving, and staying informed is your best strategy for navigating its twists and turns.

Work With Norada in Texas's Shifting Market

As Texas enters a housing correction phase, savvy investors are capitalizing on price adjustments and increased inventory across key markets.

Norada offers a curated selection of turnkey rental properties in resilient Texas cities, providing consistent income and long-term appreciation potential.

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Dave Ramsey Predicts Mortgage Rates Will Probably Drop Soon in 2025

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If you're anything like me, the thought of buying a home or even just keeping up with mortgage payments in today's economy can feel a little overwhelming. That's why when someone like Dave Ramsey, a guy who's built a career on giving straightforward financial advice, talks about the housing market, people tend to listen.

And recently, he's made a pretty significant prediction: major mortgage rate changes are likely on the horizon soon. In fact, Ramsey believes these changes, specifically a drop in rates, could be the key to unlocking a more active housing market. So, what exactly did he say, and more importantly, what does it mean for those of us dreaming of owning a home or looking to make our current mortgage more manageable? Let's dive in.

Dave Ramsey Predicts Mortgage Rates Will Probably Drop Soon

Who is Dave Ramsey and Why Should We Care?

For those who might not be as familiar, Dave Ramsey is a personal finance guru. He's the author of several best-selling books, most notably The Total Money Makeover, and hosts the nationally syndicated The Ramsey Show. What I appreciate about Ramsey is his down-to-earth approach to money. He doesn't speak in complicated financial jargon; he tells it like it is.

Having navigated his own financial ups and downs, including a bankruptcy early in his career, he speaks from experience. He's built a massive following by offering practical, no-nonsense advice on getting out of debt, saving, and building wealth. When he talks about mortgages, people pay attention, especially because he often advocates for more conservative approaches like the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Ramsey's Forecast: Lower Mortgage Rates Ahead

In a recent interview with TheStreet, Ramsey shared his prediction that mortgage rates will “probably fall.” This isn't just a casual hunch; he believes this potential decrease could be the spark that the current housing market needs to see a significant uptick in activity. While he didn't throw out specific numbers, he suggested that even a one to two percentage point drop could lead to what he called a “home buying frenzy” due to the pent-up demand that's been building up.

This prediction comes at a crucial time. We've seen mortgage rates climb quite a bit, which has understandably made many potential homebuyers hesitant. Ramsey's optimistic outlook is interesting because, while some experts are cautiously optimistic, others anticipate rates staying relatively high for a while longer. His focus on a potential near-term drop suggests he sees factors at play that could lead to improved affordability for buyers.

The Current Mortgage Rate Landscape (May 2025)

To put Ramsey's prediction into context, let's take a look at where mortgage rates stand right now, in May 2025.

  • The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering around 6.8%. Sources like Freddie Mac reported it at 6.76% for the week ending May 8th, 2025, while Bankrate showed a slightly higher 6.91% for the same type of refinance.
  • If you're considering a shorter term, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is averaging between 5.89% and 5.92%. This lower rate comes with higher monthly payments but saves you significantly on interest over the life of the loan, something Ramsey often emphasizes.
  • For those looking to refinance a 30-year fixed mortgage, the average is around 6.91%, according to Bankrate.
  • Even jumbo mortgages, for higher-priced homes, are sitting at about 6.80%.

It's worth remembering that these rates are down a bit from their peak of 7.79% in October 2023, but they're still considerably higher than the sub-3% rates we saw just a few years ago. This jump is a big reason why many people are feeling the pinch when it comes to buying or refinancing a home.

What Drives Mortgage Rates? A Look Under the Hood

Understanding why mortgage rates fluctuate is key to making sense of any predictions. Several factors play a significant role:

  • Inflation: When the cost of goods and services rises (inflation), lenders often demand higher interest rates to ensure their returns don't lose purchasing power over time. Recent reports have highlighted that persistent inflation is a major reason why rates have remained elevated.
  • Federal Reserve Policies: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) sets the federal funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight borrowing. While this doesn't directly set mortgage rates, it significantly influences them. Even though the Fed cut rates a few times in 2024, mortgage rates haven't mirrored that decrease completely, indicating other market forces are at play.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy usually means more demand for credit, which can push interest rates higher. Conversely, if the economy slows down, rates might decrease to encourage borrowing and spending.
  • Bond Market Yields: Mortgage rates tend to closely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. This yield reflects investors' confidence in the economy and their expectations for future inflation.
  • Global and Geopolitical Events: Things happening around the world, like trade disputes, fears of recession, and instability in financial markets, can also impact mortgage rates by affecting bond yields. For instance, recent tariff announcements have been cited as a factor influencing bond markets.

Because these factors are constantly shifting and interacting, predicting future mortgage rates with absolute certainty is incredibly difficult. Ramsey's prediction likely takes these dynamics into account, but ultimately reflects his belief that the scales will tip towards lower rates in the near future.

What Other Experts Are Saying

It's always a good idea to see how Ramsey's prediction aligns with what other experts in the field are saying. Here's a snapshot of some forecasts:

  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) projects the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to be around 6.62% by the end of 2025 and slightly above 6% by the end of 2026.
  • Analysts at U.S. News anticipate rates to stay in the mid-6% range throughout 2025 and 2026, citing ongoing economic uncertainty and a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve.
  • Both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are also forecasting a gradual decline, with rates stabilizing around 6.5% by late 2025.

While these projections generally point towards a downward trend, they seem a bit more measured in their optimism compared to Ramsey's suggestion of a potential “frenzy.” Most experts agree that a return to the very low rates of the early 2020s is unlikely, a point Ramsey himself has acknowledged.

Potential Ripple Effects: How Lower Rates Could Impact You and the Housing Market

If Ramsey's prediction, or even the more conservative expert forecasts, come to pass, we could see some significant effects on both homebuyers and the broader housing market:

  • Lower Monthly Payments: Even a small drop in interest rates can make a big difference in your monthly mortgage payment. For example, if the rate on a $300,000 30-year fixed mortgage drops from 6.8% to 6%, the monthly payment could decrease by around $157. Over the life of the loan, that adds up to significant savings – over $56,000 in interest! This increased affordability could bring more people into the market.
  • Increased Buying Power: Lower rates mean you can afford to borrow more money for the same monthly payment. This could open up options for buyers to consider larger homes or homes in more desirable locations.
  • Refinancing Opportunities: For current homeowners with mortgages at higher interest rates, a drop could present an opportunity to refinance and secure a lower rate. This could reduce their monthly payments or allow them to shorten their loan term, saving them money on interest in the long run.
  • Market Dynamics: As more buyers enter the market due to improved affordability, we could see increased competition for available homes. Ramsey believes that this strong demand will likely keep home prices stable or even push them higher.

However, it's important to remember that the housing market faces other challenges. Limited inventory and home prices that have risen faster than wages are still significant hurdles. The fact that only 33% of 27-year-olds own homes today, compared to 40% of baby boomers at the same age, underscores the affordability issues many face. While lower rates would be a welcome development, they need to be considered alongside these existing market realities.

Ramsey's Advice for Navigating the Current Market

Regardless of when and how much mortgage rates might change, Dave Ramsey's advice for homebuyers remains consistent: don't try to time the market. He emphasizes that trying to predict the absolute lowest point for rates is a risky game. Instead, he advises purchasing a home when you are truly financially ready.

For Ramsey, being financially ready means:

  • Being debt-free (excluding the mortgage itself).
  • Having a 3–6 month emergency fund in place.
  • Opting for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage where the monthly payment, including taxes and insurance, doesn't exceed 25% of your take-home pay.

He is a strong advocate for the 15-year mortgage over the traditional 30-year term, highlighting the massive amount of interest you can save over the shorter loan period. For those considering refinancing, his advice is to carefully evaluate whether the lower interest rate and potentially shorter term justify the associated closing costs.

Final Thoughts: Staying Informed in a Changing Landscape

Dave Ramsey's prediction of upcoming mortgage rate changes offers a beacon of hope for a housing market that has felt out of reach for many. While the exact timing and extent of these changes remain to be seen, his forecast aligns with a general expectation among experts for a gradual decline in rates. For those of us navigating the complexities of buying a home or managing a mortgage, staying informed about these trends and understanding the underlying economic factors is crucial. Ultimately, Ramsey's core advice – to be financially prepared and make wise, long-term decisions – remains timeless, no matter where mortgage rates go.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated so far this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

Also Read:

States With Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – May, 13 2025

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For anyone dreaming of owning a home, or even just keeping their current one affordable, understanding where to find the lowest mortgage rates is paramount. As of today, May 13, 2025, the states offering the most attractive interest rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages might surprise you. According to the latest data, the five states boasting the lowest mortgage rates are New York, California, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Interestingly, these also happen to be the five most populous states in the nation.

States With the Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – May, 13 2025

Now, I know what you might be thinking. What's the connection between population size and lower mortgage rates? It's a valid question, and the answer lies in a mix of factors. These large states often have a higher volume of mortgage lenders operating within their borders. This increased competition can naturally drive rates down as lenders vie for your business. Furthermore, these states tend to have diverse economic activity, which can influence the overall risk assessment by lenders.

Following closely behind these giants, the states with the next best mortgage rates include Georgia, Hawaii, Virginia, and Washington. On May 13, 2025, the average rates in these nine states hovered between a comfortable 6.84% and 6.98%. On the other end of the spectrum, if you were looking for a mortgage in Alaska, West Virginia, North Dakota, Vermont, Maine, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, or Wyoming, you would likely encounter the highest average rates, ranging from 7.06% to 7.26%.

It's fascinating to see such a clear regional disparity in mortgage rates. It really highlights that the housing market isn't a monolithic entity; it's a patchwork quilt of local economies, regulations, and lender appetites.

Why the Rate Rollercoaster? Unpacking the Factors Behind State-Specific Mortgage Rates

You might be wondering why your neighbor across state lines could be looking at a significantly different interest rate than you. Several key factors contribute to these state-level variations in mortgage rates.

  • Lender Presence and Competition: As I touched upon earlier, the sheer number of mortgage lenders operating in a state plays a big role. More lenders typically mean more competitive pricing. Think of it like any other market – when there are more options, businesses have to work harder to attract customers, and one way they do that is by offering better rates.
  • Credit Score Landscape: Believe it or not, the average credit score of borrowers within a state can influence the rates offered. States with a generally higher average credit score might be seen as less risky by lenders, potentially leading to slightly lower rates across the board.
  • Average Loan Size: The typical amount people borrow for a mortgage in a specific state can also have an impact. In areas with higher average home prices (and thus larger loan sizes), lenders might adjust their rates based on the overall risk associated with larger sums.
  • State-Level Regulations: Each state has its own set of regulations governing the mortgage industry. These rules can affect the operational costs for lenders, which in turn can be reflected in the interest rates they offer.
  • Lender Risk Management: Ultimately, each lending institution has its own way of assessing and managing risk. This internal strategy can significantly influence the rates they are willing to offer in different regions. A lender might have a larger appetite for risk in one state compared to another based on their past experiences and market analysis.

It's crucial to remember that these factors often intertwine and influence each other in complex ways. There's no single magic bullet that dictates mortgage rates in a given state.

Beyond the Averages: Why Individual Rates Can Still Vary Widely

While it's helpful to understand the average mortgage rates in your state, it's equally important to recognize that your personal rate will be unique to your financial situation. The averages we see are just a snapshot, a general trend. Several factors will determine the specific interest rate you qualify for:

  • Your Credit Score: This is arguably one of the biggest drivers of your mortgage rate. A higher credit score signals lower risk to lenders, translating into more favorable interest rates.
  • Your Down Payment: The amount of money you put down as a down payment significantly impacts the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. A larger down payment means you're borrowing a smaller percentage of the home's value, which lenders see as less risky. This often results in a lower interest rate.
  • Loan Type and Term: The type of mortgage you choose (e.g., fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate, FHA, VA, conventional) and the length of the loan term (e.g., 15-year vs. 30-year) will directly influence your interest rate. Shorter terms typically come with lower rates but higher monthly payments.
  • Your Income and Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI): Lenders will assess your income and existing debt to ensure you can comfortably afford the monthly mortgage payments. A lower DTI is generally viewed favorably.
  • Points: You might have the option to pay “points” upfront to lower your interest rate. This is essentially pre-paying some of the interest. Whether this is a good strategy depends on how long you plan to stay in the home.

Therefore, while knowing the average rates in states with the lowest mortgage rates today is a great starting point, it's essential to focus on strengthening your own financial profile to secure the best possible rate for your individual circumstances.

My Two Cents: Why Shopping Around is Always the Smart Move

If there's one piece of advice I can give anyone looking for a mortgage, it's this: shop around! Don't settle for the first offer you receive. Mortgage rates can vary significantly between different lenders, even within the same state.

Think of it like buying anything else – you wouldn't just walk into the first store and buy the first item you see without comparing prices, would you? The same principle applies to mortgages, arguably one of the biggest financial commitments you'll ever make.

By getting quotes from multiple lenders, you can compare their interest rates, fees, and terms. This empowers you to make an informed decision and potentially save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. Don't be afraid to negotiate and let lenders know you're comparing offers. They may be willing to adjust their rates to earn your business.

National Trends: A Broader Look at the Mortgage Landscape

While we've focused on state-specific data for May 13, 2025, it's also helpful to consider the broader national trends in mortgage rates. According to data, the average rate for a 30-year new purchase mortgage nationally stood at 7.00% on Monday. This reflects a slight increase after a couple of days of decline.

Interestingly, earlier in the year, in March 2025, we saw a low point with the 30-year average dipping to 6.50%. This just goes to show how dynamic the mortgage market can be, influenced by a complex interplay of economic factors, including the bond market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Understanding these national fluctuations can provide context for the state-level variations we've discussed. When national rates are generally lower, you might see more states offering particularly attractive deals. Conversely, when national rates rise, even the states with the lowest rates will likely see some upward pressure.

The Bottom Line: Knowledge is Power in the Mortgage Game

Understanding which states currently boast the lowest mortgage rates is a valuable piece of information for prospective homebuyers. As of May 13, 2025, New York, California, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania lead the way. However, remember that these are just averages, and your individual rate will depend on your unique financial profile.

The key takeaway here is to be proactive. Research the mortgage market in your state, compare offers from multiple lenders, and focus on improving your creditworthiness and down payment. By being informed and diligent, you can navigate the mortgage process with confidence and secure the best possible terms for your dream home.

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Denver Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

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If you're trying to figure out what's going on with the Denver housing market trends right now, you're not alone. It feels like things are always changing! So, let's break it down. As of mid 2025, the Denver metro area is showing signs of steady movement with a slight uptick in activity. While prices aren't skyrocketing, they aren't drastically falling either, suggesting a more balanced market than we've seen in recent years. Let's dive deeper into the numbers and see what they really mean for folks looking to buy, sell, or even rent in the Mile High City.

Current Denver Housing Market Trends:

Home Sales: More Homes Changing Hands

Good news for those looking to sell! According to RE Colorado, in April 2025, we saw 3,982 closed listings in the Greater Denver metro area. That's a 3% increase compared to April of last year. This tells us that there are still plenty of people out there looking to buy, and sellers are finding success in closing deals. Interestingly, the most action was in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, showing where a lot of the buyer demand is focused.

Month over month, things also look positive with a 12% jump in closed listings from March to April. This increase in activity suggests that the spring buying season is definitely kicking into gear here in Denver.

Denver Home Prices: Steady with a Slight Climb

When it comes to how much homes are selling for, the median closed price in April 2025 was $604,000. This is a slight 1% increase from April 2024. While it's not the crazy price growth we might have seen a few years back, it does indicate that home values are holding steady and even inching up a bit. The average closed price was higher at $714,551, but the median gives us a better picture of what's typical since it's not as affected by really expensive or really cheap homes.

Looking at the month-over-month picture, the median closed price rose by 2%. This little bump suggests that as more buyers jump into the market, we might see a bit more upward pressure on prices.

Are Home Prices Dropping? A Look at the Data

Based on the latest data from April 2025, it doesn't look like home prices are dropping in the Denver metro area. In fact, both the median and average closed prices showed year-over-year and month-over-month increases, albeit modest ones. This indicates that while the market might be cooling off from the intense highs of the past, demand is still there to support current price levels.

Comparison with Current National Median Price

It's always helpful to see how our local market stacks up against the rest of the country. As of March 2025, the national median home price was $403,700, with a 2.7% year-over-year increase. Comparing this to Denver's median closed price of $604,000, it's clear that the cost of housing in the Denver metro area is still significantly higher than the national average. While the rate of price increase in Denver (1%) is lower than the national rate (2.7%), the overall price point remains a key factor for anyone looking to move here.

Denver Housing Supply: More Choices for Buyers

Here's some potentially good news for buyers: the number of new listings in April 2025 saw a significant jump. We had 7,186 new homes hit the market, which is an 18% increase compared to last year and a 10% increase from March 2025. This influx of new inventory means buyers have more options to choose from, which can ease some of the pressure of a super competitive market.

The total number of active listings is also up quite a bit. In April 2025, there were 12,436 active listings, a whopping 61% increase year-over-year! This substantial rise in available homes is a big shift from the tight inventory we've experienced in recent years.

Is Denver a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market? Finding the Balance

To figure out if it's leaning towards a buyer's or seller's market, we can look at the weeks of inventory. This tells us how long it would take to sell all the currently listed homes at the current sales pace. In April 2025, Denver had 1.4 weeks of inventory.

Generally, a balanced market has around four to six months of supply. A number lower than that, like what we're seeing, still suggests a market that favors sellers because there aren't enough homes to meet buyer demand. However, the significant increase in active listings compared to last year indicates that the market is moving towards a more balanced state. Buyers have more power now than they did a year ago, but sellers still hold an edge due to the limited overall inventory.

Market Trends: What the Numbers Tell Us

Let's put all these pieces together to understand the current market trends in Denver:

  • Steady Demand: The increase in closed listings year-over-year shows that buyers are still active and looking to purchase homes.
  • Price Stability with Slight Growth: While prices aren't surging, they are holding steady and even showing modest increases, both annually and monthly.
  • More Inventory: The significant rise in new and active listings is giving buyers more choices and reducing some of the intense competition.
  • Slightly Slower Pace: Homes are staying on the market a bit longer. The median days in MLS (Multiple Listing Service) was 14 days in April 2025, which is 5 days longer than in April 2024. This could be due to the increased inventory giving buyers more time to make decisions.
  • Active Buyers: Even with more inventory, the 5% year-over-year increase in pending contracts shows that buyers are still actively making offers.

Here's a quick look at some key metrics:

Metric April 2025 April 2024 Year-Over-Year Change Month-Over-Month Change
Closed Listings 3,982 3,866 +3% +12%
Median Closed Price $604,000 $598,000 +1% +2%
Average Closed Price $714,551 N/A N/A N/A
Median Days In MLS 14 9 +5 days -14 days
New Listings 7,186 6,091 +18% +10%
Pending Listings 4,324 4,118 +5% -3%
Active Listings 12,436 7,730 +61% N/A
Weeks of Inventory 1.4 N/A N/A N/A

Impact of High Mortgage Rates: A Continuing Factor

Of course, we can't talk about the housing market without mentioning mortgage rates. Currently, in mid-May 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.76%, and the 15-year fixed rate is about 5.89%, according to Freddie Mac. Most experts predict that these rates will likely stay around this level or maybe decrease slightly, ending 2025 somewhere between 6.0% and 6.2%.

These higher mortgage rates definitely have an impact. They make buying a home more expensive overall, which can cool down buyer demand to some extent. It also affects how much people can afford. Even though demand is still there, the higher cost of borrowing is a factor that keeps the market from overheating too much.

Denver Metro Rental Market: A Slight Shift

It's also worth taking a quick look at the rental market in the Denver metro area. In April 2025, we saw a slight softening:

  • The median leased price dipped by 2% year-over-year.
  • The price per square foot for rentals declined by 3% compared to last year.
  • However, the median price per bedroom held steady at $1,000.
  • Fewer properties were leased overall, with leasing activity down by 10% year-over-year.
  • Interestingly, rental properties were moving a bit faster, spending 3 fewer days on the MLS compared to last year.

This suggests that while it might be getting a little easier for renters in terms of price, the demand for rental units is still relatively strong, leading to quicker turnover.

Looking Ahead: My Thoughts

From my perspective, the Denver housing market in mid-2025 is in an interesting phase. We're moving away from the intense seller's market we've seen in recent years towards a more balanced scenario. The increase in inventory is a welcome sign for buyers who have been facing limited choices and fierce competition. However, the continued presence of relatively high mortgage rates is keeping affordability a key concern.

I believe that while we might not see dramatic price drops, the rate of price appreciation will likely remain modest. Sellers need to be strategic with their pricing to attract buyers in this environment. Buyers, on the other hand, have a bit more leverage and time to find the right home.

The rental market's slight softening could offer some relief for tenants, but the steady price per bedroom suggests that the fundamental cost of living in Denver remains high.

Overall, staying informed about these Denver housing market trends is crucial whether you're looking to buy, sell, or rent. The data tells a story of a market that's adjusting, offering both opportunities and challenges for everyone involved.

Denver Housing Market Forecast 2025: What's Coming Next?

Based on the latest data, experts predict that home values in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood area are likely to see a slight dip in the coming year. The average home value currently sits around $600,309, and it takes about 13 days for a home to go under contract. Let's dive deeper into what the future might hold.

Short-Term Outlook: Spring and Early Summer 2025

Looking at Zillow's predictions, things seem to be cooling down a bit. For April 2025, the forecast suggests a 0.8% decrease in home values in the Denver metro area. Moving into June 2025, this downward trend is expected to continue, with a projected 2% drop. While these aren't massive declines, it does signal a shift from the rapid price growth we've seen in recent years. As someone who keeps a close eye on these trends, this suggests that buyers might find slightly more favorable conditions in the near future, with potentially less intense bidding wars.


The Year Ahead: March 2025 to March 2026

If we take a broader view over the next year, from March 2025 to March 2026, the forecast indicates a more significant decrease. Zillow predicts a 4.1% decline in Denver home values during this period. This doesn't sound like a crash to me, but it does point towards a market correction. Several factors could be contributing to this, including interest rates, which although fluctuating, have remained elevated compared to the pandemic lows, potentially cooling buyer demand.

How Denver Stacks Up Against the Rest of Colorado

It's always helpful to see how the Denver housing market forecast compares to other areas in the state. Here's a quick look at the predicted percentage change in home values over the next year (March 2025 to March 2026) according to Zillow:

Region Predicted Value Change (Mar '25 – Mar '26)
Denver, CO -4.1%
Colorado Springs, CO -3.7%
Fort Collins, CO -3.6%
Boulder, CO -4.2%
Greeley, CO -3.6%
Pueblo, CO -2.5%
Grand Junction, CO -0.9%

As you can see, most major metro areas in Colorado are expected to see a decrease in home values. Denver's predicted decline is within the same range as Boulder and slightly more pronounced than in Colorado Springs and Fort Collins. Grand Junction appears to be the most resilient market in the short term based on this data.

Will Home Prices Crash in Denver? What About 2026?

Based on the data and my understanding of market dynamics, a housing market crash in Denver seems unlikely in the immediate future. A crash typically involves a sudden and dramatic drop in prices, often triggered by a major economic crisis. While prices are projected to decrease, the forecast suggests a gradual correction rather than a sharp plunge.

As for a Denver housing market forecast for 2026, it's a bit further out, and predictions become less certain. However, if the current trends continue, we could potentially see a stabilization or even a continued slight downward trend in the first part of the year. Factors like job growth in the Denver area, changes in interest rates, and the overall economic climate will play a significant role in determining the direction of the market beyond March 2026. It's something I'll be keeping a close watch on!

In Conclusion

The Denver housing market forecast suggests a cooling trend with a gradual decrease in home values expected over the next year. While a crash isn't predicted, both buyers and sellers should be aware of these shifts and adjust their expectations accordingly. For buyers, this might mean more negotiating power and less urgency. For sellers, it emphasizes the importance of pricing strategically. As always, staying informed with the latest data and consulting with local real estate professionals is key to navigating the market successfully.

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Today’s Mortgage & Refinance Rates – May 13, 2025: Rates Rise Across Various Loan Types

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As of May 13, 2025, mortgage rates have increased to approximately 6.80%, a slight rise primarily linked to a recent trade agreement between the United States and China which has temporarily paused heightened tariffs on goods traded between the two countries. This trade development comes amid a backdrop of rising investor concerns, leading to the conclusion that while recession fears may reduce, mortgage rates may not necessarily follow suit and drop. Instead, the prevailing sentiment seems to indicate a stabilization or slight increase in rates moving forward.

Today's Mortgage & Refinance Rates – May 13, 2025: Rates Rise Across Various Loan Types

Key Takeaways:

  • Current Average Mortgage Rate: 6.80%
  • Rates Increased: Due to trade tensions easing and heightened economic uncertainty.
  • Refinance Rates: Show a similar upward trend across various mortgage types.
  • Economic Influences: Tariff decisions and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact rates.
  • Market Outlook: The future of mortgage rates remains uncertain as policymakers continue to evaluate inflation and economic growth prospects.

In today's financial landscape, staying current with mortgage rates and understanding their trends is essential for anyone looking to purchase a home or refinance their existing mortgage. The mortgage market is where buyers and homeowners decide how they will finance their properties, and every percentage point in mortgage rates can significantly impact monthly payments and overall affordability.

What Are Today's Mortgage Rates?

According to data from Zillow, the average mortgage rates for May 13, 2025, are as follows:

Mortgage Type Average Rate Today
30-Year Fixed 6.79%
20-Year Fixed 6.52%
15-Year Fixed 6.07%
7/1 Adjustable Rate 7.56%
5/1 Adjustable Rate 7.62%
30-Year FHA 5.95%
30-Year VA 6.36%

The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage continues to be the favorite among borrowers, primarily because of its long-term stability and predictability. Borrowers choose this option to ensure that their monthly payment remains fixed for the entire life of the loan. While the 30-year fixed mortgage offers manageable monthly payments over time, the longer duration means more interest paid over the life of the loan compared to shorter terms, such as the 15-Year Fixed Rate mortgage.

15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages have become an appealing choice for those who want to minimize total interest costs. The current average for a 15-year fixed mortgage is around 6.07%. While monthly payments will be higher than those of a 30-year mortgage, the advantage lies in paying off the loan faster and saving significantly on interest over time.

Current Mortgage Refinance Rates

Homeowners looking to refinance are finding themselves in an environment where the rates for refinancing have not been favorable recently either. Here’s the latest average refinancing data from Zillow:

Refinance Mortgage Type Average Rate Today
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.84%
20-Year Fixed Refinance 6.46%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 6.09%
7/1 ARM Refinance 7.67%
5/1 ARM Refinance 7.82%
30-Year FHA Refinance 5.75%
30-Year VA Refinance 6.25%

Refinancing can be a strategic move for homeowners looking to lower their monthly payments, consolidate debt, or withdraw cash from their home’s equity. An important consideration when deciding on refinancing is understanding the costs associated with it. Homeowners often debate if they should refinance based on the savings they would achieve through a lower interest rate. The general recommendation often cited by financial advisors is to consider refinancing if you can reduce the existing mortgage rate by at least one percent.

This can be calculated by comparing the new monthly payment to the existing payment, and considering the total costs of refinancing, such as closing costs. If a homeowner pays $3,000 to refinance and reduces their monthly payment by $200, it would take them about 15 months to break even on their refinancing costs.

Understanding Mortgage Rate Fluctuations

Several interlinked factors contribute to the current fluctuations in mortgage rates. Economic trends, market sentiment, and Federal Reserve policies all play critical roles in shaping the mortgage landscape.

  1. Economic Factors: Economic data that indicates inflation or growth can drive a rise in mortgage rates because lenders will want to offset the risk that future inflation might erode the value of the fixed payments. Reports regarding job growth, consumer spending, and wage inflation can all signal economic strength, which may lead to increased borrowing costs as lenders perceive less risk.
  2. Federal Reserve Policies: The Federal Reserve (often referred to simply as “the Fed”) influences mortgage rates through its policy decisions regarding the federal funds rate—the interest at which banks lend to each other overnight. Although mortgage rates do not adjust directly in tandem with the federal funds rate, they are influenced by expectations surrounding monetary policy. For instance, a rate hike by the Fed could prompt lenders to raise mortgage rates in anticipation of increased costs for borrowing.
  3. Investor Sentiment: Mortgage rates are also influenced by investor preferences in the bond market. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are bonds composed of various home loans, and when investor interest in these securities declines, lenders might raise mortgage rates to entice investors back into the market with higher yields.

Current Trends in Mortgage Rates and the Economy

As we reflect on mortgage rates’ tendencies over the past few months, we see a pattern of gradual increases. Rates have risen from 6.71% in April, signaling a broader market trend that reflects not just recent tariff negotiations but also ongoing fiscal policies and inflation concerns. The gradual rise of rates is in contrast to the earlier expectations from the beginning of the year, where many experts predicted substantial rate cuts by the Fed for an anticipated recession.

Recent tariff agreements between the U.S. and China, aimed at averting severe economic downturns, provide a valuable context for understanding these rate movements. The agreement to pause heightened tariffs for 90 days has unnerved some investors, primarily due to historical apprehensions surrounding trade policy unpredictability. In essence, while lessening economic uncertainty seems positive, it has contributed to the slight uptick in mortgage rates as markets adjust their expectations.

Will Home Prices Drop in 2025?

A critical component of the housing market amidst rising rates is the ongoing trend in home prices. Despite the anxiety around increasing mortgage costs, home prices are anticipated to maintain a growth pattern. According to industry analysts from Fannie Mae, home prices are expected to increase by 4.1% in 2025. This represents a moderated pace compared to previous years’ explosive growth, reflecting a market striving for balance amid economic constraints.

Challenges like slow inventory growth, high demand, and continued low housing supply fuel this upward pressure. Given that prospective homebuyers grapple with high rates, market dynamics indicate that many will still be willing to purchase homes, leading to continued appreciation in home prices.

Choosing the Right Mortgage Option

For homebuyers navigating this complex landscape, understanding the array of lending options is crucial:

  1. Fixed-Rate Mortgages: These loans provide consistent monthly payments and are ideal for those seeking financial predictability. By locking in an interest rate, borrowers can shield themselves from possible future hikes. This stability often comes at a slightly higher short-term rate compared to adjustable options but can save borrowers significant amounts in total interest if markets surge.
  2. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): Initially attractive for their lower starting rates, such loans come with the caveat of fluctuating rates after an introductory period. ARMs may make sense for buyers planning to sell or refinance within a short timeframe, as they can secure lower payments upfront. However, potential future rate increases should weigh heavily in their decision-making process.
  3. Government-Backed Loans: Options like FHA, VA, and USDA loans can make homeownership accessible to those with lower credit scores or limited down payment capabilities. These loans often come with favorable terms compared to conventional loans, making them a worthwhile consideration for first-time homebuyers.

Conclusion: The Mortgage Market Outlook

Examining today's mortgage rates as of May 13, 2025, reveals a nuanced landscape shaped by trade negotiations, economic factors, and investor sentiment. While the rise in rates poses challenges for potential homebuyers and those considering refinancing, understanding these elements equips consumers with the knowledge to navigate the mortgage process effectively. The interplay of various economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and local market conditions create a complex yet manageable scenario for securing home financing in today's environment.

As we continue into 2025, all eyes will be on how these factors evolve, and their cumulative effects on borrowing costs will undoubtedly impact the broader housing market.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

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Gold Price Forecast: Experts Predict Prices Will Hit $6,000 by 2029

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You know, lately I've been digging into what's happening with gold, and let me tell you, some experts are making some pretty bold predictions. The gold price forecast is definitely turning heads, with whispers of it potentially soaring to a staggering $6,000 per ounce by 2029. That's a massive jump from where we are now! Analysts at JPMorgan suggest this could happen if even a small fraction – just 0.5% – of the U.S. assets held by investors outside the country shifts towards gold. It sounds like a big “if,” but let's dive deeper into why this might actually be more plausible than you think.

Gold Price Forecast: Could Prices Really Hit $6,000 by 2029?

Why the Buzz Around Gold?

For ages, gold has been seen as a safe haven, a place to park your money when things get a little shaky in the world. And lately, there's been no shortage of shaky situations! Think about it:

  • Global Uncertainty: From geopolitical tensions to economic worries, there's a lot making investors nervous. Gold tends to shine when traditional assets like stocks look risky.
  • Central Bank Actions: After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of some of its assets, it seems like many central banks are rethinking their reliance on certain currencies. This has led to increased gold buying as a way to diversify their holdings.
  • Inflation Fears: When the cost of everyday things goes up, people often turn to gold as a way to preserve their wealth because it's seen as a hedge against inflation.
  • Government Debt: The amount of money some governments owe is also raising concerns, and gold is often viewed as a more stable alternative.

Now, when you throw in the possibility of even a tiny shift in how much faith foreign investors have in U.S. assets, as JPMorgan's analysts point out, the impact on gold prices could be huge. Why? Because the supply of gold doesn't really grow that much each year. So, even a small increase in demand can lead to a significant jump in price.

The Trump Factor and Shifting Global Dynamics

Interestingly, the analysts at JPMorgan highlighted that the trade war initiated by former President Trump actually added fuel to gold's rally. It made some foreign investors question the stability of U.S. assets. Plus, talk about “burden sharing” – suggesting that other countries benefiting from the dollar's reserve currency status should contribute more – might also be making some investors abroad a bit uneasy.

As the JPMorgan analysts put it, “The recent period in financial markets has demonstrated that interest and trust in US assets are already being questioned, and the US is vulnerable to capital outflows.” This is a pretty significant statement. If this trend continues, even a small trickle of money moving from U.S. assets to gold could create a big wave in the gold market.

Breaking Down the Numbers: 0.5% Can Make a Big Difference

Let's get into the nitty-gritty. JPMorgan estimates that if just 0.5% of the total U.S. assets held by foreign investors were reallocated to gold, it would mean about $273.6 billion flowing into the precious metal over four years. That's roughly 2,500 metric tons of gold.

Now, while 2,500 metric tons might sound like a lot, it's only about 3% of the total gold holdings worldwide. However, as the analysts point out, “the additional demand impulse on a quarterly basis is quite immense.” Because the supply of new gold is limited, this extra demand could really push prices upwards. They even project that this scenario could lead to annual returns of around 18% for gold investors!

My Thoughts on This Bold Prediction

Honestly, while an 80% jump to $6,000 by 2029 sounds like a huge leap, the reasoning behind it makes a lot of sense to me. We're living in a time of significant global shifts and uncertainties. The traditional faith in the dominance of U.S. assets isn't as rock-solid as it once seemed.

Factors like:

  • Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts and tensions around the world are likely to continue driving investors towards safe-haven assets.
  • Inflationary Pressures: While there have been efforts to control inflation, it remains a concern, and gold has historically acted as a good hedge.
  • Currency Debasement: Massive government spending and quantitative easing can sometimes lead to the devaluation of currencies, making gold more attractive.

These are all ongoing issues that could very well contribute to a sustained increase in the demand for gold.

Of course, it's important to remember that this is just one potential scenario put forth by analysts. The future is uncertain, and there are many factors that could influence the price of gold. For instance, a sudden period of strong global economic growth and renewed confidence in traditional assets could dampen the enthusiasm for gold.

What Other Experts Are Saying

It's also worth noting that JPMorgan isn't the only one with a bullish outlook on gold. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs also raised its year-end gold price forecast, suggesting it could even approach $4,500 in some extreme cases. This kind of consensus among major financial institutions adds weight to the idea that gold still has significant upside potential.

Navigating the Gold Market

If you're thinking about investing in gold, it's crucial to do your own research and understand the risks involved. You can invest in gold in various ways, including:

  • Physical Gold: Buying gold bars or coins.
  • Gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): These funds track the price of gold and can be traded like stocks.
  • Gold Mining Stocks: Investing in companies that mine gold (though their performance can be influenced by factors beyond just the price of gold).

Each of these options has its own set of advantages and disadvantages, so it's important to choose what aligns best with your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Final Thoughts: A Golden Opportunity or Just Wishful Thinking?

While predicting the future price of anything is always a tricky business, the scenario laid out by JPMorgan's analysts regarding the gold price forecast to $6,000 by 2029 is certainly compelling. The confluence of global uncertainties, potential shifts in investment preferences, and the limited supply of gold creates a strong argument for continued price appreciation.

Whether it reaches that exact $6,000 mark remains to be seen. However, based on the current trends and the analysis from experts, it seems to me that gold is likely to remain a significant asset in the years to come, and its price could indeed climb considerably higher. It's definitely something I'll be keeping a close eye on!

Diversify Beyond Gold: Invest in Real Estate

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Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?

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It wasn't that long ago that the Texas housing market felt unstoppable. Homes were selling in bidding wars, often in days, and prices seemed to climb forever. For anyone trying to buy, it was a frustrating, expensive time. But times change, and the latest data points suggest a significant shift is underway. Indeed, the Texas housing market enters a major correction phase as prices drop across the state, driven by a dramatic increase in the number of homes for sale.

I've been watching real estate markets for years, and what we're seeing in Texas right now is a clear signal that the wild boom times are over, at least for now. Let's dive into what the numbers are telling us and what it means if you're a buyer, a seller, or just curious about the Lone Star State's real estate future.

Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?

The Unmistakable Sign: Skyrocketing Inventory

The first and perhaps most obvious sign of a changing market is the sheer number of homes sitting on the market. Think of it like this: when there are way more items on the store shelves than people wanting to buy them, the store eventually has to lower prices to move the goods. The same principle applies to housing.

According to data highlighted by real estate analyst Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, the number of active listings for sale across Texas has shot up dramatically. Looking at the historical data, the state's inventory levels were relatively stable before the pandemic madness.

  • In 2017, active listings were around 89,193.
  • They hovered in the 88,000s and 90,000s through 2018, 2019, and 2020.
  • The average during this pre-pandemic period was roughly 80,128 listings.
Is Texas Housing Crashing? Data Shows 53% Inventory Jump, Prices Falling
Source: Reventure App via X

Then came the pandemic boom. Fueled by low interest rates, remote work, and a rush of migration, demand exploded while supply tightened. Builders couldn't keep up, and homeowners with incredibly low mortgage rates weren't selling. This caused inventory to absolutely plummet to historic lows.

  • In 2021, listings dropped to a stunning low of around 35,997.
  • 2022 wasn't much better, staying incredibly tight at about 34,932.

These incredibly low numbers are a huge reason prices jumped so much. There just weren't enough houses for everyone who wanted one.

But the tide has turned. As interest rates climbed and the initial rush of pandemic buyers slowed, more homes started coming onto the market, and fewer buyers were able to jump in.

  • Inventory started climbing in 2023 to around 68,817.
  • It continued its ascent in 2024, hitting about 95,156.
  • And now, the data point that really catches my eye: in April 2025, active listings hit a whopping 123,237.

Let that sink in. 123,237 active listings. Compared to the roughly 80,128 average from 2017-2020, that's about a 53% increase in the number of homes available for sale. Compared to the pandemic lows of 2021-2022, it's literally more than triple the inventory.

From my perspective as someone who follows these markets, such a rapid and significant rise in inventory is a screaming signal. It tells me that the intense competition among buyers has faded. Sellers are finding their homes are sitting on the market longer, and they're facing much more competition from other homes for sale. This shifts the power dynamic firmly towards buyers.

Prices Are Following Suit: It's Not Just Inventory

High inventory is important because it's a leading indicator, but the real impact people feel is on prices. And Nick Gerli's analysis confirms what we'd expect: prices are now dropping across the state.

This isn't just a prediction based on inventory; it's a report on what's actually happening. We're seeing more price cuts, longer days on market before a home sells (if it sells), and ultimately, sale prices coming down from their peaks.

Why is this happening now? It's a mix of factors all coming together:

  1. The Inventory Surge: As discussed, more choices mean buyers don't have to overpay or waive contingencies like they did before.
  2. Higher Interest Rates: This is a massive factor. Even if a house price is slightly lower, the monthly payment on a mortgage is significantly higher now than it was a couple of years ago because interest rates have risen. This directly impacts how much house people can afford, reducing the pool of eligible buyers.
  3. Slowing Migration: The influx of new residents, particularly from more expensive states like California, was a major driver of demand and price growth in Texas during the boom. Nick Gerli notes that domestic migration into Texas slowed significantly in 2024, down 62%. While Texas is still growing, the pace of migration that fueled the recent frantic buying has cooled considerably. Fewer people arriving with potentially higher budgets means less competition for local buyers.

When you combine a flood of supply with cooling demand (due to affordability issues and slower migration), the result is predictable: prices have to come down to find the market clearing level.

How Much Could Prices Drop in Texas? Looking Ahead

This is the question on everyone's mind: just how far could this correction go? Predicting the exact bottom is impossible, but the data gives us some strong hints and potential scenarios.

One way to look at it is comparing current prices to long-term historical norms relative to incomes or rents. Nick Gerli's analysis suggests that Texas home values are still about 17.7% overvalued today compared to that historical relationship. This means, even with some recent small drops, prices haven't yet fully adjusted back to where they “should” be based on underlying economic fundamentals over the long run. He notes this overvaluation has improved a bit recently (meaning prices got even more overvalued at the peak), but it's still significant.

Based on current supply/demand conditions like the skyrocketing inventory, increased price cuts, and longer days on market, Reventure's short-term forecast (over the next 12 months) is for home prices in Texas to drop by -4.0% statewide. This seems like a reasonable near-term prediction given the clear shift in market dynamics we're witnessing.

However, Nick Gerli also talks about the potential for a larger correction, perhaps in the range of 15-20%. This more significant drop is a possibility, especially if certain economic conditions worsen. A key risk factor he points out is the oil industry. Texas's economy, while diverse, still has significant ties to energy. He mentions oil prices around $57/barrel as being problematic, potentially causing local operators to shut down production. A recession in the oil sector could lead to job losses and reduced economic activity in parts of Texas, further weakening housing demand and potentially accelerating price declines.

My own thoughts align with this analysis. Markets rarely correct in a perfectly smooth line. The 4% drop over the next year might be the initial phase, especially if economic conditions remain stable. But if there's an external shock, like a downturn in a key industry or a broader recession, the correction could easily deepen into that 15-20% range. The underlying overvaluation suggests there's still room for prices to fall before they hit historical norms.

The Silver Lining: A Step Towards Affordability

While headlines about price drops can sound alarming, it's important to remember why this correction is happening. The previous run-up in prices made Texas, a state long known for its relative affordability, increasingly out of reach for many of its residents. This was particularly true for first-time buyers or those earning local wages who weren't benefiting from the high salaries of coastal transplants.

Prices declining is actually a necessary step towards restoring some balance and improving affordability. As prices come down, more local Texans will be able to consider buying a home again. This can bring buyers back into the market, which in turn helps stabilize things eventually.

Even after a potential 4% drop, Nick Gerli's analysis suggests the market might still be about 10-12% overvalued. This indicates that the path to full affordability, based on historical metrics, might require further price adjustments down the line.

Understanding Reventure's Forecast Score

Reventure App uses a forecast score (0 to 100) to predict 12-month price movements based on supply and demand fundamentals. Texas currently has a score of 37/100. Scores closer to 0 indicate a market where prices are expected to decline, while scores closer to 100 suggest prices are likely to rise. A score of 37 is on the lower end, reinforcing the expectation of falling prices in the near future compared to other markets in the U.S. It signals weak fundamentals for price appreciation right now.

My Take on What This Means

Based on the data, the trends, and my understanding of how markets work, here's my personal view:

  • For Sellers: The party is over. Listing your home now means entering a market with much more competition. You'll likely need to price competitively, be prepared for negotiation, and accept that your home might take longer to sell than it would have a year or two ago. Overpricing is the quickest way to have your listing sit and eventually require larger price cuts.
  • For Buyers: This is potentially good news. You have more options, less pressure to make rushed decisions, and more leverage to negotiate on price and terms. However, higher interest rates still make the monthly cost of buying high, even if the price comes down. Don't just look at the list price; look at the full monthly payment with the current rates. Do your homework on local market conditions – while the state average is dropping, some specific neighborhoods might hold up better than others initially.
  • For Texas: A housing market correction, while painful for those who bought at the peak, is ultimately healthy if it improves affordability. Making it easier for residents who work in the state to afford homes is crucial for long-term economic stability and quality of life.

The dramatic increase in inventory, coupled with clear signs of prices dropping and underlying overvaluation, strongly indicates that the Texas housing market is undergoing a significant correction. It's a necessary adjustment after a period of unsustainable growth. While the exact magnitude and duration of the downturn remain to be seen and could be influenced by broader economic factors like the energy sector, the direction is clear: the Texas housing market is cooling down, and prices are finding a new level.

Work With Norada in Texas's Shifting Market

As Texas enters a housing correction phase, savvy investors are capitalizing on price adjustments and increased inventory across key markets.

Norada offers a curated selection of turnkey rental properties in resilient Texas cities, providing consistent income and long-term appreciation potential.

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