We’ll be discussing the latest Naples real estate market trends & statistics to find out how they can affect the investors and homebuyers in the next six to twelve months. The Naples real estate market has been extremely resilient to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Buyers have less negotiating power because inventory in the Naples area continues to decline. It experienced a heightened homebuying interest in July, which resulted in a 57.3 percent increase in pending sales for the month. Total sales (closed) during July increased 35.4 percent year over year.
That's up 42% compared to the month before, according to NABOR®. A decreasing supply of inventory is making it difficult to keep up with strong pent up demand from buyers. Data by Realtor.com also corroborates that in July 2020, the Naples housing market was a seller’s market, which means there were roughly more buyers than there were active homes for sale. The sellers in Naples have managed to hold good leverage in price negotiations.
On average, they could sell homes for 96.25% of the listing price–just 3.75% below asking price. A seller would always prefer scenarios that can yield a ratio of 100% or higher while a buyer would prefer a sale to asking price ratio that’s closer to 90%. The median list price of homes in Naples, FL was $382.5K, trending up 5.7% year-over-year while the median sale price was $359K. More insights into the Naples housing market from NABOR 2020 Market Reports are given below.
Let’s talk a bit about Naples the surrounding metro area before we discuss what lies ahead for investors and homebuyers. Naples, Florida is a small, upscale beach town in southwestern Florida. It is notable as one of the wealthiest cities in the country. Yet it stands out as one of the better real estate investment opportunities, as well. For real estate investors, Naples, Florida has a track record of being one of the best long term real estate investments in the nation.
Naples is home to around twenty thousand people. The Naples housing market includes the broader Naples-Marco Island metropolitan area. That’s home to around three hundred thousand people. Let's continue to explore the Naples housing market trends to understand what it will look like in the second half of 2020. If you are considering buying a house or an investment property, you’ll find all the housing statistics on this page to help you make a sound decision.
Naples Housing Market Prices & Trends 2020
We shall now discuss some of the most recent Naples real estate trends & prices, and compare it with the past couple of years. We shall mainly discuss median home prices, inventory, economy, growth, and neighborhoods, which will help you understand the way the local real estate market moves in this region. Naples is also one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation. In the past ten years, the annual real estate appreciation rate has amounted to 6.45%, according to NeighborhoodScout.com. This puts Naples in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation.
Large apartment complexes or high rise apartments are the single most common housing type in Naples, accounting for 58.29% of the city's housing units. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Naples include single-family detached homes, duplexes, homes converted to apartments or other small apartment buildings, and a few row houses and other attached homes. Dwellings in Naples tend to be quite small (one, two, or no bedrooms) and owner-occupied. 55.35% of the homes in Naples have two or fewer bedrooms.
Naples real estate activity during the first two weeks of March was quite strong, while activity during the second half of March got impacted due to COVID-19 restrictions. Data released by Naples Area Board of REALTORS®, which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), showed that overall closed sales in March increased 15.8 percent to 1,148 closed sales compared to 991 closed sales in March 2019.
This was an increase of 359 closed sales over February (789 closed sales) and 426 more closed sales than January (722 closed sales). The report also showed a 22.5 percent increase in closed sales for the first quarter of 2020 (2,689 total closed sales) compared to the first quarter of 2019 (2,195 total closed sales).
The March report showed overall inventory remained strong through March, with 5,772 available properties. This was a 27.5 percent decrease in inventory compared to March 2019, which had 7,965 properties available. The overall median closed price in March increased 10 percent to $372,750 compared to $339,000 in March 2019. However, while median closed prices for the single-family homes increased by 16 percent in March to $470,000 compared to $405,500 in March 2019,
Impact of COVID-19 on The Naples Housing Market
According to the April 2020 Market Report, overall closed sales decreased 28.6 percent to 838 closed sales compared to 1,173 closed sales in
April 2019. Inventory decreased as well in April by 29.1 percent to 5,394 homes compared to 7,605 homes in April 2019. The April report also confirms home values remain intact. Median closed prices increased .3 percent in April to $340,000 from $339,000 in April 2019.
Despite a pause in real estate activity, virtual showings increased following safe-at-home restrictions imposed by the local government. The important observation was that homes did not lose their values as contract price averaged 95.9 percent of list price. During April 2019, the contract price averaged 95.4 percent of the list price. So, there was hardly any difference from last year's figure.
In May, there was a spike in buyer interest—showings increased by a whopping 244 percent compared to showings in April. Total home sales were reported to be 599, -49.6 decrease year-over-year. Pending sales represented the spike in buyer interest. Compared to last year, they decline by just 4.2% but increased by 90 percent compared to April. Overall inventory during May decreased 27.2 percent to 5,116 homes from 7,023 homes in May 2019.
There was a 4 percent decrease in new listings of single-family homes. The shrinking inventory led to modest price increases in the single-family home market during May, which saw a 31.8 percent decrease in inventory and a 3.7 percent increase in median closed prices compared to May 2019.
In June, the pending sales increased 61.3 percent compared to June 2019, with single-family homes being the home choice for a majority of buyers. Pending sales of single-family homes increased 83.9 percent to 835 pending sales from 454 pending sales in June 2019. June Market Report revealed a shift in buyer preference to single-family homes compared to June 2019.
Latest Naples Housing Market For July 2020
Below is the NABOR® July 2020 Market Report which provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary.
The report showed closed sales of properties priced above $500,000 increased over 50 percent in July, with the $500,000 to $1 million price category reporting the highest increase (99.1 percent) to 223 closed sales in July 2020 from 112 closed sales in July 2019. While the overall median closed price for July increased 13.5 percent to $368,750 from $325,000 in July 2019, the report also showed 829 properties reduced their list prices during July.
|CATEGORIES||July 2019||July 2020||CHANGE|
|Total closed sales (month/month)||852||1,154||35.4|
|Total pending sales (homes under contract) (month/month)||919||1,446||57.3|
|Median closed price (month/month)||$3,25,000||$3,68,750||+ 13.5|
|Total active listings (inventory)||6,168||4,390||-28.8|
|Average days on market||104||92||11.5|
|Single-family closed sales (month/month)||446||637||42.8|
|Single-family median closed price (month/month)||$4,05,000||$4,62,000||+ 14.1|
|Condominium closed sales (month/month)||406||517||27.3|
|Condominium median closed price (month/month)||$2,40,000||$2,72,500||+ 13.5|
Naples Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – 2021
What are the Naples real estate market predictions for 2020? Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. As you can see in the graph below, since mid-2016, the market has cooled off. The home prices in Naples have not appreciated. The median home value in Naples is $334,871, and home values have declined -0.2% over the past year.
The Zillow Buyer-Seller Index (BSI) shows that Naples is currently a cool buyer’s real estate market. This is computed monthly. According to their index, there exists a general lack of demand in Naples, and homes can linger on the market longer and ultimately sell for less, putting negotiating power in the hands of buyers. In other words, based on the last month’s key housing market indicators, current supply is exceeding the demand, giving buyers an advantage over sellers in price negotiations. There are more homes for sale than there are active buyers in the marketplace.
The Naples real estate market forecast (on Zillow) is that the home prices may decrease by 2.3% – in the next twelve months. It is expected that the supply exceeds demand metrics will continue to favor buyers at least until the first quarter of 2021.
Here is the visual representation of historical Naples home prices and the latest forecast until March 2021.
Naples Real Estate Appreciation Forecast
Here is a short and crisp Naples housing market forecast for the 3 years ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2021 is also positive. The accuracy of the Naples housing market trend prediction is 83%. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability of rising home prices in Naples is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018.
The change in home prices for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL is shown below for the three-time periods (data up to 3rd Quarter, 2018). The Naples Home Price Index has increased for the last 7 consecutive quarters. The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Naples Real Estate Market was 39% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The worst annual change in home values in the Naples Market was -32% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.
The highest growth in home values in the Naples Real Estate Market over three years was 97% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The worst performance over three years in the Naples Market was -51% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009. For upcoming updates, you can visit this page.
|Time Period||Naples Metro Area Real Estate Appreciation|
|Last 5 Years||60%|
|Last 10 Years||37%|
|Last 20 Years||168%|
The question now is what happens moving forward. These numbers can be positive or negative depending on which side of the fence you are — Buyer or Seller? It is quite evident that the ongoing pandemic has not had any major impact on the Naples housing market. However, it was quite expected that social distancing, higher unemployment, and lower overall economic activity would constrain real estate activity in the near term. And it did happen from April onwards.
The sales took a massive hit in the past couple of months with signs of great recovery in July. After three months of year-over-year declines, sales in July have bounced back. The report for August is not available yet but sales are expected to do much better than July due to pent up demand. The industry is adapting to the current environment by conducting business using technologies such as virtual showings and e-signing to help buyers and sellers with their housing needs in the face of these challenges.
What is there for sellers in Naples? According to local brokers, now is a good time to jump in the market to take advantage of the high demand for Naples property. There are fewer homes on the market for buyers to purchase so you can stand out from the crowd with less competition and more eyes on your property. You need to take advantage of the pent up demand from buyers. As per July's data, buyers are looking for single-family homes (more than condos) because they offer more personal space, and more space to work from home and home-school children.
What is there for buyers in Naples? Naples continues to be a more affordable alternative to high-tax living in other areas of the country. The biggest mistake buyers make is sitting around waiting for sale prices to decline while their potential mortgage payment plummets. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 2.88% in the first week of August. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 2.44%. This is the time for buyers to take advantage before they are increased again. Properties prices are expected to remain stable in the next six to twelve months.
In conclusion, we can say that the Naples housing market cannot shift to a buyer’s real estate market, for the long term. In a balanced real estate market, it would take about five to six months for the supply to dwindle to zero. In terms of months of supply, Naples can become a buyer’s real estate market if the supply increases to more than five months of inventory.
And that’s not going to happen. We can conclude that demand has not only recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but has reached heights that make it very strong by any historical standard. Hence, the Naples real estate market remains strong and resilient to the economic slump caused by the pandemic. This also conforms with the overall national housing market trends and predictions.
Real estate market forecasts given in this article are just an educated guess and should not be considered financial advice. Real estate prices are deeply cyclical and much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. Many variables could potentially impact the value of a home in Naples in 2020 (or any other market) such as big changes in the distressed, new-construction, or luxury home segments. There are also a wide variety of economic and political factors that can and do impact real estate markets. Most of these variables are difficult to predict in advance.
Naples Real Estate Foreclosure Statistics 2020
The percent of delinquent mortgages in Naples is 0.7%, which is lower than the national value of 1.1%, according to Zillow.com. With U.S. home values having fallen by more than 20% nationally from their peak in 2007 until their trough in late 2011, many homeowners are now underwater on their mortgages, meaning they owe more than their home is worth. The percent of Naples homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 6.0%, which is lower than Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island Metro at 6.1%.
There are currently 341 properties in Naples, FL that are in some stage of foreclosure (default, auction or bank-owned) while the number of homes listed for sale on RealtyTrac is 2,540. In July, the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing in Naples, FL was 50% lower than the previous month and 99% lower than the same time last year.
|Potential Foreclosures in Naples||341 (RealtyTrac)|
|Homes for Sale in Naples||2541|
|Median List Price||$399,000 (0% rise vs June 2019)|
Naples Real Estate Investment
Is Naples rental property good for investment? Planning to invest in the Naples real estate market? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Naples is a good investment? You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for the year ahead. We have already discussed the Naples housing market 2019 forecast for answers on why to put resources into this sizzling market.
Homeowners in the Naples real estate market tend to be much older than average; the average resident is 65 or older. This creates significant turnover as people die or sell beloved beach homes to move into assisted living. That’s aside from the normal turnover driven by job losses, divorces, and bankruptcies. Here are some of the top reasons to invest in the Naples real estate market.
Naples is The Buyer’s Market
The Naples housing market has cooled off lately. This has created a buyer’s market. Home prices only went up one percent last year in the Naples real estate market. Home prices are not expected to rise in the next twelve months. That makes this a great time to buy Naples real estate investment properties. This is especially true for condos that cost less than 300,000 dollars.
The potential supply of housing in the Naples real estate market is limited by geography. The city sits on the Gulf Coast, so the city cannot expand west onto the water. The Everglades are located to the east and south, and the city cannot grow that way, either. The city can fill-in and build up, but both of these options are expensive. That will protect the value of a Naples real estate investment property over the long run.
Naples Rental Market Trends
The average rent for apartments in the Naples housing market is 1500 a month. The median rent for upscale properties in the Naples housing market is 3700 dollars a month This rental rate is skewed upward by the premiums you can charge for oceanfront properties. You can charge even more for properties that overlook the Everglades or cater to the ecotourists flooding the area. The average price of properties in the Naples real estate market is roughly 320,000 dollars.
This is about fifty percent higher than the state average. The median household income is around 90,000 dollars a year, but that’s skewed upward by a large number of rich who live here and the sizable retiree population. For long-term residents who aren’t this wealthy, the expensive real estate market prevents them from buying homes. On the flip side, the high median age means many retirees come to live here part of the year or live here for several years before retiring to a nursing home.
This creates a large rental population that is almost immune to economics; they’ll live in active adult communities based on its location and amenities. The massive number of properties owned by people who live here part-time also creates significant demand for rental units available to those who live here full time. If you’re going to snap up Naples real estate investment properties, the best ones to buy are low-maintenance beach condominiums.
Ironically, these are the properties most readily available in the Naples real estate market. The prices for fee heavy condominiums and luxury condominiums have declined because of the recent influx of inventory. This is a significant improvement over other rental markets where the most abundant properties are bank foreclosures and distressed sellers behind on a mortgage; those properties typically have to be fixed up before they can be rented out.
You’ll find that the Naples housing market has a far lower percentage of underwater homeowners and foreclosures than average. However, you can find several distressed sellers and foreclosures by moving inland. Chokoloskee has a foreclosure rate ten times that of Marco Island.
Rental Statistics: As of July 2020, the average rent for an apartment in Naples, FL is $1792 which is a 14.96% increase from last year when the average rent was $1,524, and a 0.67% decrease from last month when the average rent was $1804.
- One-bedroom apartments in Naples rent for $1325 a month on average (a 0.6% increase from last year).
- Two-bedroom apartment rents average $1635 (a 3.06% increase from last year).
- The-average apartment rent over the prior 6 months in Naples has increased by $181 (11.2%)
- One-bedroom units have increased by $13 (1%).
- Two-bedroom apartments have decreased by $136 (-7.7%).
According to RENTCafe, the average size for a Naples, FL apartment is 938 square feet with studio apartments are the smallest and most affordable, 1-bedroom apartments are closer to the average, while 2-bedroom apartments and 3-bedroom apartments offer more generous square footage. 40% of the households in Naples, FL are renter-occupied. More than 95% of the apartments can be rented for less than $2,000/mo. 36% fall in the price range of $1,501-$2,000.
The most affordable neighborhoods where the asking prices are below the average Naples rent are:
- Royal Harbor, where the average rent goes for $1,178/month.
- Aqualane Shores, where renters pay $1,252/mo on average.
- Coquina Sands, where the average rent goes for $1,252/mo.
- Lake Park, where the average rent goes for $1,252/mo.
- Moorings, where the average rent goes for $1,252/mo.
- Old Naples, where the average rent goes for $1,252/mo.
The Landlord Friendly Jurisdiction
Florida, like other southern states, is friendlier to property owners than tenants. Florida doesn’t have rent control laws, and there are no state laws limiting security deposits. You can begin evictions if someone is three days late on rent The law says you can give someone an unconditional notice to quit the property if they intentionally damage the property. Lesser, repeated violations of the lease qualify for a seven day quit notice, but evictions in these cases do require going to court.
The state of Florida failed to pass statewide laws regarding short-term vacation rentals. This forced AirBnB and similar short-term rental services to come to an agreement with Florida counties on a case-by-case basis. The Naples real estate market is notable for its stringent restrictions on short-term rentals unless the property is in a zoned tourist district or planned unit development. If you can find a Naples real estate investment property in these areas, you’ll be able to charge a premium for the unit because you aren’t competing with permanent residents renting out a spare bedroom.
Florida's Low Tax Rate
Florida doesn’t have an income tax. More importantly, it doesn’t make up for this with a sky-high property tax rate like Texas. Instead, they have a moderately high-income tax. The modest property tax rate combined with the affordable real estate market means that the average property tax bill for Florida properties was less than two thousand dollars in 2018. Florida also has some of the highest homeowner’s insurance rates in the country thanks to all those hurricanes. One of the benefits of buying Naples real estate investment properties over those on the Atlantic coast is that the insurance premiums are lower.
Collier County was in spot 57 on a list of Florida counties based on property insurance rates. The only reason the average property tax bill was higher than average was that the cost to insure a property is proportional to its cost, and the Naples housing market was 50 percent more expensive than average. Factor in the lower property insurance rate and a Naples real estate investment property comes with a 25 percent higher than a comparable home inland.
Naples Florida Real Estate Investment Opportunities
Maybe you have done a bit of real estate investing in Florida but want to take things further and make it into more than a hobby on the side. If you are a home buyer or real estate investor, Naples real estate investment has a track record of generating one of the best long term returns in the U.S. through the last ten years. While the Naples housing market is noteworthy for having the second-highest proportion of millionaires in the U.S., you don’t have to have a million dollars to invest in the Naples real estate market.
There are several opportunities real estate investors can take advantage of in this unique housing market while enjoying all of the benefits of owning Florida real estate. When looking for the best real estate investments in Naples, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth. Both of them translate into high demand for housing.
There are 11 neighborhoods in Naples. Port Royal has a median listing price of $8M, making it the most expensive neighborhood. Sun Terrace is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of $359.9K, according to Realtor.com. If housing supply meets housing demand, real estate investors should not miss the opportunity since entry prices of homes remain affordable.
Florida is a great place to invest in real estate with several affordable and growing markets. The state will continue growing by more than 300,000 people a year and will top 22 million residents in 2022, according to a report posted online by state economists. That's equal to adding a city slightly larger than Orlando every year. The report estimated the population on April 1, 2018, at 20.84 million, with it increasing to 21.2 million on April 1, 2019. It is forecast to hit 22.2 million as of April 1, 2022, and be at 22.8 million on April 1, 2024. The population increases will primarily stem from “net migration” as people move into the state, rather than births, which are largely offset by deaths.
Several Fortune 500 corporations call the Florida home including World Fuel Services, Publix Super Markets, Auto Nation, Office Depot, Hertz, Fidelity National Financial, and Lennar Corp. With a diverse collection of industries supporting Florida’s economy, it further strengthens the drive for workers to want to live and work here. Those factors in turn create a strong demand for rental properties and increasing rental rates.
While there are investment opportunities in the Florida housing market, major metros are some of the most popular choices, like Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami, St. Petersburg, and Tampa. Another market that we suggest is the housing market in Lakeland, Florida. The Lakeland housing market presents the perfect balance of currently affordable real estate for buyers and future growth. We can expect the population of the area to grow rapidly, and the renting population will grow even faster. The time to buy real estate in Lakeland is now.
While the Lakeland FL real estate market is cheaper than Orlando and Tampa, it is not a good overall value given the lower average wages of its residents. That explains why U.S. News and World Report gave the city an index score of 5.5 out of ten. This is due to the average resident earning around $23,000 a year, several thousand less than the U.S. average. Median household incomes are no better.
You can also invest in another hot market in Ocala, Florida. Ocala is an affordable real estate market for investors who can still reap a decent return on investment. The area has recovered from the Great Recession, and several factors will insulate it from a future downturn. The Ocala housing market is buoyed by several near recession-proof industries.
It is quite affordable for investors compared to the rest of Florida markets like Tampa where the median home value is $221,500. The median home price in Ocala in 2018 was around $150,000. You can buy several homes in the Ocala FL real estate market for the price you would of one mid-market condo in the Miami real estate market.
The Tampa real estate market has been seeing constant development for the last two years, a trend that does not seem to be stopping any time soon. The real estate in Tampa Florida has been estimated to grow rapidly during 2020. Investors are recommended to buy properties now and hold on to them until good price appreciation for maximum return on investment.
Tampa has the headquarters of four Fortune 500 companies which makes it a moderately attractive city for work and economic growth. In addition to this, many entrepreneurs and small businesses are also making way to Tampa for the search for better prospects and lesser expenses for running their start-ups. Acquiring residential spaces is one of the earliest priorities for such professionals when they move here.
Tampa, FL has a very diverse economy with financial services, STEM, health care, research, education, tourism, beaches, and military bases all making significant contributions to jobs and growth. These factors make the Tampa housing market a hot destination for real estate investors in 2019.
NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Naples.
Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Naples turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Naples.
Not just limited to Naples or Florida but you can also invest in some of the best real estate markets in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Naples turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.
Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.
Is It The Right Time To Invest In Real Estate? – The national homeownership rate is on the decline for the first time since 2017. As demographics change and baby boomers retire, you’re seeing Millennials who may not be ready to buy houses. In 2018, Millennials made up about 22 percent of the population in the United States. They’re choosing to rent over buying a single-family home or an apartment. Rising home prices and shortage of starter homes have not left Millennials many choices but to delay homeownership. Moreover, it's even harder to take out a mortgage for those who have student loan debt.
Let us know which real estate markets in the United States you consider best for real estate investing!
Remember, caveat emptor still applies when buying a property anywhere. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third party sites mentioned under references. Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. As a general policy, the Norada Real Estate Investments makes no claims or assertions about the future housing market conditions across the US.
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