Naples Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

Naples consistently ranks among Florida's hottest housing markets. Lush beaches, world-class amenities, and a thriving retiree community fuel its popularity. This allure translates to high demand and, consequently, a premium price tag.

The current Naples housing market trends show some interesting shifts compared to previous years, with factors like hurricane resilience, increasing inventory, and a slight softening of prices impacting the market dynamics. While the Naples housing market has traditionally been a seller's market, we are starting to see signs of a shift towards a more balanced market with increased competition and more options for buyers.

Current Naples Housing Market Trends:

Let's delve deeper into the specifics to get a better understanding of the Naples housing market in 2024.

Home Sales

Looking at the October 2024 numbers from the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), we see a noticeable decrease in home sales compared to the previous year. Total closed sales dropped by 21.6%, with both single-family home sales down 20.9% and condo sales down 22.3%.

I think it's important to note that October was a bit of an unusual month. In addition to dealing with the disruption of two hurricanes, the general election also likely distracted some buyers and sellers from their real estate plans. It's hard to say if those are long-term influences, but it's worth acknowledging.

However, while the numbers are down, it's crucial to consider that the Naples housing market historically performs well. The long-term appeal of Naples remains strong, with factors like its beautiful beaches, ideal weather, and thriving community continuing to draw people to the area.

Home Prices

While we've seen a slight cooling in certain segments of the market, the overall median closed price remains high. The overall median price in October was $568,500, which was a 3.6% decrease from the same month last year.

However, it's important to break that down further. Single-family home prices actually increased by 3.2% to a median of $727,500, showing continued strength in that market segment. It's the condominium market that saw a more significant price drop of 8.1%, with the median price falling to $413,750.

This trend is being influenced by the increased inventory in the condo market. Many buyers are now able to find more options within their price range and are less willing to pay top dollar in a competitive bidding war. I've personally seen some sellers in the condo market needing to adjust their pricing strategy to keep up with demand and competition, which is not unusual in a market that is transitioning.

Housing Supply

One of the most significant shifts in the Naples housing market is the increase in housing supply. Total active listings (inventory) have risen 30.9% from October 2023 to 4,746 properties. This is almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

The increase in inventory is due to several factors. First, the hurricane season did cause some uncertainty for both buyers and sellers. This uncertainty slowed things down, which created the possibility of more properties on the market.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, there is still a significant amount of new construction in the Naples area. Many builders are working on new communities and high-end homes that are coming onto the market.

There are also more existing homes coming to market. The inventory is rising in both single-family homes and condominiums, with single-family homes up 19.9% and condos up a whopping 42.9%.

This increased inventory is a major factor in shifting the market towards a more balanced state.

Market Trends

As mentioned earlier, the Naples housing market is beginning to show signs of shifting from a seller's market to a more balanced market. There are more choices for buyers, and the need for sellers to be competitive is becoming more important.

The average days on market is another indication of this shift. In October 2024, homes remained on the market for an average of 89 days, a 58.9% increase compared to the previous year. This increased time on market is a direct result of the increased supply and the shift in buyer and seller power.

Buyers are now more inclined to wait for the right property and price, rather than rush into a deal in a competitive environment.

Is Naples a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

As we've discussed, the Naples housing market is transitioning from a strong seller's market to a more balanced state. While it's not fully a buyer's market, buyers are finding themselves in a more favorable position compared to previous years.

The increased inventory, coupled with a slight softening in prices in certain segments, gives buyers more leverage and more options to choose from.

We are hearing anecdotal reports from realtors that buyers are becoming more selective and looking for deals. This means sellers might not be able to fetch the high prices they could have gotten a few years ago.

At the same time, it is important to remember that Naples remains a desirable and sought-after location for many homebuyers. It's a strong market with a solid foundation. While it's leaning towards more of a balanced market, it's not yet a buyer's paradise.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While the overall median closed price saw a slight decline, we're not seeing a significant price drop in the Naples housing market.

Single-family home prices are actually on the rise; it's only the condominium market that is seeing a more substantial decline.

I think it's too early to say if the current downward trend in condo prices will continue or if it's just a temporary blip in the market.

What I can say is that sellers need to be realistic about their pricing expectations. They need to be actively reviewing the market and comparable new listings each month. I've personally had a few conversations with sellers who haven't been keeping up with trends and ended up having to reduce their asking price to make a deal happen.

Buyers, on the other hand, are now in a better position to negotiate. They can take advantage of the increased inventory and potentially get a better price or concessions from sellers.

The Impact of Hurricanes

The impact of hurricanes on the Naples housing market has always been a topic of discussion and concern. However, the area has made significant strides in preparing for storms and building hurricane-resistant homes.

As we've seen in recent years, Naples has demonstrated its ability to rebound quickly after storms thanks to a number of factors:

• Improved Building Codes: The devastating impact of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 led to stricter building codes and regulations. Many new homes are built to withstand strong winds and heavy rainfall.
• Infrastructure Improvements: The region has invested in flood control projects, drainage systems, and storm water management infrastructure, which helps protect neighborhoods from flooding.
• Resilient Residents: Many residents in Naples have experience living through hurricanes and are well-prepared for storm events. They are used to taking necessary steps to protect their homes and families.

The October Market Report highlights how these improvements have helped the Naples housing market recover quickly after storms. In fact, many people who have lived through a few hurricanes often consider Naples an even more desirable place to live knowing that they are living in a community prepared to handle such events.

The Role of Realtors

In a market with shifting dynamics, working with a qualified and experienced Naples REALTOR® is crucial.

• Market Expertise: A local realtor can provide up-to-date insights into market conditions, price trends, and inventory levels. They can help buyers find the right property and sellers price their homes competitively.
• Negotiation Skills: A good realtor is skilled at negotiating and can help you get the best possible deal, whether you're a buyer or seller.
• Local Knowledge: Navigating the local regulations and processes involved in buying or selling a home in Naples can be challenging. A realtor will guide you through it all.

In today's changing market, having a professional on your side can make all the difference in achieving your real estate goals.

The Future of the Naples Housing Market

Looking ahead, I expect the Naples housing market to remain relatively stable. The long-term fundamentals of the area are solid, and the desirability of the community continues to attract buyers.

I believe we will see a continued shift towards a more balanced market, with inventory levels remaining relatively high and buyer power increasing.

However, I don't anticipate a dramatic price crash. Naples is a resilient market with strong demand, and I think the market will continue to attract people who are looking to buy and live in the area.

The key factor for sellers in the future will be pricing their properties competitively. And buyers will have more opportunity to find properties that meet their needs and budgets.

I'm also interested to see how the state legislature's discussions on condominium reserves will impact the market. If any changes are made to help ease the burden of mandatory reserve funds, it could influence the condominium market in a positive way.

Category	October 2023	October 2024	Change (%)
Total Closed Sales	617	484	-21.6
Total Pending Sales	665	532	-20.0
Median Closed Price	$590,000	$568,500	-3.6
New Listings	1,262	1,179	-6.6
Total Active Listings	3,627	4,746	+30.9
Average Days on Market	56	89	+58.9

Naples Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

Thinking about buying a home in Naples, Florida, and wondering about the Naples housing market forecast? Well, according to Zillow's latest predictions, the Naples housing market is expected to see a slight dip in home value growth in the near term, with a projected decrease of 0.5% by November 2024 and a further decline of 1.2% by January 2025.

However, the forecast then swings to a positive outlook with a projected 3% increase in home values by October 2025. So, while there might be a slight downturn, it doesn't appear that a major crash is expected.

Let's dive into the details and explore what this means for the Naples housing market in the years to come.

Understanding the Naples Housing Market Forecast

I've been following the Florida real estate market for many years and, like many experts, I believe these forecasts offer a general direction of the market. Zillow provides these data points for 3 time frames, which helps us understand the trend. In this case, the data reveals a potential softening in the immediate future, followed by a positive climb.

Here's a simplified table based on Zillow's data to help visualize the expected changes in home values:

Forecast Date	Predicted Home Value Change
November 2024	-0.5%
January 2025	-1.2%
October 2025	3%

Comparing Naples to Other Florida Housing Markets

When you compare Naples to other metropolitan areas in Florida, you'll see a range of projected growth rates.

Region	Predicted Home Value Change (October 2025)
Naples, FL	3%
Miami, FL	3.8%
Tampa, FL	2.4%
Orlando, FL	2.2%
Jacksonville, FL	1.9%
North Port, FL	1.5%
Cape Coral, FL	1.5%
Lakeland, FL	2%
Deltona, FL	1.4%
Palm Bay, FL	2.1%

As you can see, Naples is positioned in the middle of the pack in terms of growth compared to other Florida markets. Miami, with the highest predicted growth, shows a positive trend, while cities like North Port and Cape Coral show more modest growth.

Will Home Prices Drop in Naples?

Based on the Naples housing market forecast, there's a possibility of a slight dip in home prices over the next few months. The predicted decrease of 0.5% by November 2024 and -1.2% by January 2025 suggests a potential softening of the market. However, it's important to emphasize that this is a forecast and not a guarantee.

Will the Naples Housing Market Crash?

I don't anticipate a significant crash in the Naples housing market. The expected 3% rise in home values by October 2025 suggests that the market is expected to recover relatively quickly. Historically, Naples has always been a popular location, and its beautiful beaches, upscale lifestyle and great weather continue to attract many buyers.

Possible Naples Housing Market Forecast for 2026

While Zillow's forecast only extends until October 2025, we can make some educated guesses based on the projected trend and general market conditions.

Considering the overall positive long-term outlook for the Florida economy and the sustained appeal of Naples, I believe we might see continued moderate growth in 2026. There could be a steady increase in home values, maybe somewhere between 2% and 4%. However, it is important to note that external factors like interest rates and economic conditions can impact the housing market.

In Conclusion

The Naples housing market forecast paints a picture of a potentially bumpy but ultimately positive future. While there's a chance of a slight decrease in the immediate future, the projected recovery in 2025 and the long-term attractiveness of Naples suggest that it will be a good time to invest in the city. The most important thing for potential buyers is to do their homework and work with a professional realtor who is knowledgeable in the local market to make the right decision.

So, Should You Invest in the Naples Real Estate Market?

Naples, Florida, is a popular real estate investment destination due to its location, thriving economy, and desirable quality of life. The city has been experiencing steady growth in population and housing demand, making it an attractive market for real estate investors. In this section, we will discuss Naples real estate investment overview and seven reasons why investors should consider investing in this market.

Naples Real Estate Investment Overview

Naples is known for its upscale homes, beachfront properties, and high-end condominiums. The city offers a unique combination of natural beauty, excellent climate, and world-class amenities, making it an ideal place for people looking to invest in a vacation home or rental property. The city's real estate market has been growing steadily over the past few years, with prices continuing to rise due to strong demand and limited inventory.

In recent years, the Naples real estate market has experienced steady appreciation in property values, making it an attractive investment opportunity for both local and international investors. The city's high-end real estate market has been particularly strong, with luxury homes and condos selling at a premium. Additionally, Naples has a thriving vacation rental market, with many tourists flocking to the city's beaches and attractions throughout the year.

Top Reasons to Invest in Naples Real Estate:

• Strong Rental Market: Naples is a popular vacation destination, which translates into a high demand for rental properties. Investors can enjoy high occupancy rates and attractive rental yields by investing in vacation homes or rental properties.
• Growing Population: Naples has been experiencing steady population growth, making it an attractive market for real estate investors. As more people move to the city, demand for housing continues to rise, which can translate into higher property values.
• Strong Economy: Naples has a thriving economy, with a diverse range of industries, including tourism, healthcare, and construction. The city's economy is expected to continue to grow, which can translate into higher property values over time.
• Desirable Location: Naples is located in Southwest Florida, offering easy access to some of the state's most popular attractions, including the Everglades, Sanibel Island, and Marco Island. The city's desirable location makes it an attractive place to live, work, and vacation.
• High-Quality Lifestyle: Naples is known for its high-quality lifestyle, with world-class amenities, including top-rated restaurants, shopping centers, and cultural attractions. The city's desirable lifestyle is a significant draw for both local and international real estate investors.
• Limited Inventory: The Naples real estate market has limited inventory, particularly in the luxury home and condo segments. Limited inventory can translate into higher property values over time.
• Stable Real Estate Market: Naples has a stable real estate market, with steady appreciation in property values over the past few years. The city's real estate market has been relatively resilient to economic downturns, making it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors.

While there are many advantages to investing in Naples real estate, there are also a few drawbacks to consider. One of the most significant drawbacks is the high cost of entry, particularly in the luxury home and condo segments. Additionally, property taxes and insurance rates in Naples can be relatively high compared to other Florida cities. Finally, investing in vacation rental properties can be challenging, particularly given the city's strict zoning laws and regulations.

In conclusion, the Naples real estate market offers many opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on the city's growing population, strong economy, and high-quality lifestyle. While there are some drawbacks to consider, the overall market conditions and long-term appreciation potential make Naples an attractive investment destination. Investors should conduct their due diligence and work with experienced real estate professionals to navigate the local market successfully.