The American dream of homeownership seems to be slipping further out of reach for many. A recent report by Zillow paints a concerning picture of a nationwide housing shortage that continues to worsen despite a pandemic-driven construction surge. This lack of available homes is hitting some major cities especially hard, pushing affordability further out of reach.
Zillow estimates the U.S. housing deficit to be a staggering 4.5 million units in 2022, up from 4.3 million the year before. This shortage is considered the “root cause” of the affordability crisis plaguing the market. The study focused on the 50 largest metropolitan areas, revealing a trend – many of the cities with the most severe housing shortages are located along the coasts.
Coastal Squeeze: Supply vs. Demand
Zillow points to restricted geographic limitations and “the most strict building regulations in the country” as contributing factors to the coastal housing crunch. These same coastal markets are often magnets for newcomers, further straining housing availability. Cities like Austin and Seattle, known for attracting new residents for their booming tech industries and exciting lifestyles, are likely to see their housing situations worsen in the short term.
Top Cities Affected by Housing Shortages
Zillow's analysis of the 50 largest metropolitan areas reveals that several coastal cities are bearing the brunt of the housing shortage crisis. Notably, California features prominently, with five cities ranking among the top 10 worst affected:
- Boston
- Sacramento
- Portland
- San Diego
- San Francisco
- San Jose
- Seattle
- Minneapolis
- Los Angeles
- Austin
These cities are grappling with a profound imbalance between housing supply and demand, largely influenced by stringent building regulations and geographic constraints that limit new construction.
Beyond the Coasts: A Nationwide Issue
While coastal cities face unique challenges, the housing shortage isn't just a coastal problem. Minneapolis, for example, ranks eighth on Zillow's list. Factors like strong job markets in certain industries can also lead to housing shortages in inland areas. This highlights the fact that the current shortage is a complex issue with multifaceted causes.
Understanding the Shortage: A Demand Surge Outpaces Construction
The housing deficit is essentially the gap between the number of families needing homes and the number of available units for purchase or rent. While construction did see a rise, it wasn't enough to keep pace with the increasing number of American families seeking homes. Zillow points to two key factors: a rise in the nation's family count and a sluggish period of homebuilding that preceded the pandemic.
The pandemic did trigger a construction boom, with 2022 marking “the best year for home construction” since the late 2000s. However, this wasn't enough to meet the even greater demand. With 1.8 million new families formed in 2022, the U.S. fell short of “even building enough to make a place for the new families,” let alone addressing the existing deficit.
The Affordability Crisis: A Dream Out of Reach
Zillow emphasizes the role of supply and demand in the housing market. When the number of potential homebuyers outpaces the available homes, prices inevitably rise. The “decade of underbuilding” following the Great Recession coincided with Millennials, the largest generation in U.S. history, entering prime first-time homebuyer age. This confluence of factors has significantly squeezed affordability, worsened by stubbornly high mortgage rates.
The Impact: Beyond Homeownership
The housing shortage isn't just a hurdle for aspiring homeowners. It also impacts the rental market. With fewer homes available overall, rental vacancy rates have remained low, and rents have climbed alongside home prices. This creates a ripple effect, making it difficult for many renters to save up for a down payment on a home, further perpetuating the affordability crisis.
Looking Ahead: A Long-Term Challenge
“The simple fact is there are not enough homes in this country,” states Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow. The current situation is pushing homeownership out of reach for many families, and renters are feeling the pinch as well, with nearly half facing cost burdens. Divounguy emphasizes that filling the housing gap is the key to long-term affordability. The U.S. faces a significant challenge, and addressing it will require a multi-pronged approach that includes streamlining regulations, incentivizing construction, and exploring innovative housing solutions.