Miami Housing Market Report & Trends
South Florida's housing market is strong. Home prices continue to climb and inventory is still quite limited. It is a seller’s market with many sellers getting top dollar. It is also because more people and businesses in the United States are relocating to South Florida from high-tax, high-density areas (no income tax, pro-business). An increase in foreign purchasers is also helping the state of Florida's property market.
The Miami metropolitan area is the seventh-largest metropolitan area in the United States and the 72nd-largest metropolitan area in the world. The metropolitan area includes the City of Miami (the financial and cultural core of the metropolis), Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties which are the first, second, and third most populous counties in Florida. Greater Miami includes a larger area defined by the United States Census Bureau as the Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale Combined statistical area.
This larger area includes Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian River counties to the north of Palm Beach County. The typical value of homes in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro is $475,854. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro home values have gone up 22.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.8% in the next twelve months.
The Miami real estate market also continues to remain strong even though the interest rates remain high. According to a new report by Goldman Sachs analysts, the Miami metropolitan region is predicted to be one of the few major housing markets that do not suffer a house price fall in 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts that Miami's home prices would climb modestly by the end of the year, making it one of only two large markets in the research to see an uptick.
The Miami-Dade County real estate market had a successful year in 2022, with 31,627 total homes sold and 19,377 condos sold, ranking second all-time in Miami history, according to the MIAMI Association of Realtors and the Multiple Listing Service system. Despite the rising mortgage rates in 2022, the real estate market in Miami showed its resilience and unending demand. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which started at 3% in 2022, is currently at 6.11%.
The MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist predicts that inflation will lead to a decrease in mortgage rates to 5% – 5.5% by the end of 2023, which could result in a more active housing market in the latter half of 2023. Although the overall inventory is increasing, most of the growth is in the luxury segment of the market. There is still a shortage of inventory in the $400K to $600K price range.
The sales data in December 2022 decreased YoY due to the higher mortgage rates and low inventory. The Fed's conduct of monetary policy affects mortgage rates, and the average commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.15% as of January 19, 2023. The Miami housing market has experienced steady growth in the past 11 years, with the median prices of single-family homes increasing for 133 consecutive months.
The median price increased from $525,000 to $530,900 YoY in December 2022. The median price of existing condos also rose by 5.5%, from $355,000 to $374,500 YoY. The home prices in Miami have been positively influenced by declining mortgage rates, a slow increase in household income, and a low supply of houses and condos.
The Miami metropolitan area is ranked among the top 10 U.S. metros with the highest growth in homebuyer income during the pandemic, according to a Redfin report. Additionally, the local luxury sales market has contributed to the YoY increase in median prices. In December 2022, the total active listings increased by 18.9%, from 8,997 to 10,706 YoY. The inventory of single-family homes rose by 57.7% YoY, while condo inventory increased by 3.6% YoY.
However, new listings of single-family homes and condos decreased by 20.1% and 22.2%, respectively. The months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes increased 100% to 4 months YoY, which indicates a seller's market, while the inventory for existing condos increased 24.2% to 4.1 months, also indicating a seller's market. A balanced market is considered to have between 6 to 9 months of supply.
Miami Real Estate Market Predictions 2023
What are the Miami real estate market predictions for 2023? According to NeighborhoodScout's data, Miami real estate appreciated 199.32% over the last ten years, which is an average annual home appreciation rate of 11.59%, putting Miami in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation.
In the last twelve months (between 2021 Q3 – 2022 Q3) Miami's appreciation rates continue to be some of the highest in the U.S., at 24.03%. Miami's appreciation rates in the latest quarter (between 2022 Q2 – 2022 Q3) were at 5.87%, which equates to an annual appreciation rate of 25.64%. All these figures corroborate experts' positive forecasts for Miami's housing market.
Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past year. Since the last twelve months, the median home price in Miami-Dade County has appreciated by nearly 22.4% (Zillow Home Value Index). The typical value of homes in Miami-Dade County is $498,818. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes.
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro home values have gone up 22.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.8% by December 2023.
- Miami-Dade County home values have gone up 22.4% over the past year.
- Palm Beach County home values have gone up 24.7% over the past year.
- Broward County home values have gone up 20.7% over the past year.
Miami Real Estate Investment: Is Miami a Good Place To Invest?
Successfully investing in real estate — whether you are in Miami or anywhere else in the world — is all about correctly timing the market. Knowing when to enter the real estate market can often be a bit of a challenge. Is Miami a Good Place For Real Estate Investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Miami is a good investment.
Miami is a fairly walkable city in Miami-Dade County. Miami hits most people’s radar as a tourist destination, though it periodically hits the news when it looks like it may be hit by a hurricane. However, Miami is a large, thriving city with a strong housing market. Miami is home to just under half a million people.
However, the Miami housing market is far larger than that – it includes much of southeast Florida and more than five million people. That makes the Miami real estate market the seventh-largest in the U.S., and it is the second-largest housing market in the southeastern U.S. Miami Real Estate’s Strong In-Migration & Other Market Fundamentals Make It a Great Place To Invest in Real Estate.
Top Reasons To Invest In The Miami Real Estate Market? |
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Source: MIAMI Association of Realtors® |
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Although, this article alone is not a comprehensive source to make a final investment decision for Miami we have collected ten evidence-based positive things for those who are keen to invest in the Miami real estate market. Investing in Miami real estate will fetch you good returns in the long term as the home prices in Miami have been trending up year over year. Let’s now discuss the state of the Miami real estate market, which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.
Relatively Affordable Market for Investors
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach’s median home price ($570,000) is significantly lower than many other major markets such as San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA ($1.3 million), San Diego-Carlsbad, CA ($900,000), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA ($893,200), Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ($741,300), Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH ($698,900), Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO ($666,000), New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ ($616,300), and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV ($581,300), according to NAR’s Q3 2022 Metropolitan Media Area Prices report.
Miami is a Strong International Market
In 2011, nearly a third of residents were foreign-born. However, about half of those become citizens, so we can say that Miami is simply considered attractive to immigrants. However, the Miami housing market is unusual in the number of foreigners buying homes here. Russians, Brazilians, Argentines, Turks, Chinese, and British buyers are buying up properties here at a far higher rate than would be expected. Some see the property purchases as a safe investment, while others intend to use the beachside condos as vacation properties.
A few bought homes in Miami to flee to in case their home countries became untenable, which explains the large Venezuelan ex-pat community in Miami. Many tourists come to the beach, and many people want to live there, as well. Miami’s beaches are made all the more attractive by the year-round subtropical weather. This helps explain why Miami-Dade’s population is growing around 2% a year while south Florida’s population overall has been stagnant. It is considered the fifth fastest-growing region in the U.S.
It is #1 among the major U.S. Destinations for Foreign Buyers. Florida has been #1 for 10 Years for Top US Markets for International Traffic. The Miami real estate market does present an opportunity for those who want to cater to tourists. The Port of Miami is known as the Cruise Capital of the World since it is the top cruise passenger port in the world. Landlords can rent to tourists who want to stay for a week in Miami before flying home or simply want to enjoy Miami’s beaches, cultural activities, and sports teams.
The Geographic Constraints
Many of the world’s fastest-appreciating real estate markets are attracting people coming for work and quality of life, but they cannot expand the housing supply to meet demand. San Francisco is surrounded by water on three sides, and they make things worse by limiting the height of buildings, so they can’t build up the way NYC has. In Colorado and Utah, a mix of federal parklands and vertical mountains limit where developers can build houses.
We’ve already mentioned that Miami is on the water. Miami has experienced a spurt in high-rise construction in downtown, giving it the third-highest skyline in the U.S., but other areas limit it so that high rises don’t block the view of the water. However, that hasn’t prevented the Miami real estate market from becoming the sixth densest housing market in the U.S. overall.
There’s an interesting factor to consider in the Florida housing market, and that’s the massive retiree population. Many older people move to Florida for the mild weather, and they’re rather immune to housing price fluctuations. Older people who already live here stay in their homes. This results in fewer turnovers in the Miami real estate market, limiting supply for would-be buyers.
That explains why Tampa and Coral remain over-priced markets though jobs aren’t as plentiful there. Retirees who do leave the state periodically tend to keep their Florida home as a second residence instead of selling it. The Gulf Coast is more of a vacation spot than a retirement enclave, so there’s less competition for limited housing stock.
Miami's Economy Development and Job Growth
Many people move to Miami for work. Miami is the largest urban economy in Florida, and it has the 12th largest GDP in the U.S. The World Cities Study Group classified Miami as an alpha city based on the level of business activity, human capital, and cultural activity. The unemployment rate in Miami hovers around 4% (before COVID-19); it is currently in line with the national average but often below it. Only Orlando has a better job market.
Miami-Dade County is a global tourist destination. Since 2011, overnight visitors to Miami-Dade have increased by 20 percent, and hotel room nights sold have gone up 22 percent. In 2019, Greater Miami welcomed 24.3 million visitors, an increase of 4.6 percent over 2018. Travel and tourism fueled a record-breaking 146,700 jobs in 2019. While MIA, PortMiami, and tourism are driving forces in the local economy, Miami-Dade has a vibrant entrepreneurial spirit among small businesses.
The Kauffman Foundation regularly ranks Miami as the top U.S. city for startup activity. For those residents in the County who are homeowners, life has also improved dramatically in the past eight years. County's government's one promising project on the drawing board is the Redland Market Village, which will create a vibrant downtown destination in south Dade. This project will bring 2,600 jobs and $351 million to the community during construction. Once complete, it will generate an annual economic impact of $40 million, and more than 400 new jobs, in addition to the 800 currently there.
According to a new report from the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, from 2022 to 2025, Florida's economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an annual rate of 3.%. After contracting by 2.8% in 2020, Real Gross State Product rose by 6.9% in 2021.
Payroll job growth in Florida will continue to outpace national job growth as the labor market climbs out of a steep decline. After year-over-year growth of -5.2% in 2020, the labor market rebounded by 2.6% in 2021, with growth expected to be 5.1% in 2022, 2.3% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024, and 1.2% in 2025. Average job growth in Florida over the 2021-2024 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.
The efforts to lower the state's unemployment rate will continue and Florida's accelerating job creation will help. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.3% in 2019 to 7.9% in 2020, fell to 4.8% in 2021, and will fall to 3.8% in 2022 and to 3.5% in 2023, before rising to 3.9% in 2025.
Housing starts will pick up going forward, but not nearly fast enough to offset the large shortage of single-family housing in the short run. The total starts of 156,762 in 2020 jumped to 190,061 in 2021 but will ease to 182,663 in 2022, to 162,425 in 2023, to 156,911 in 2024, and tick up to 157,178 in 2025. House price appreciation will decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand tempered by rising mortgage rates and decreasing affordability.
Miami's Massive Rental Market
Two-thirds of Miami residents rent, a rental rate rivaling that of New York City. This is partially due to the number of people working in seasonal and temporary jobs in the tourism business. It is partially due to the limited housing supply relative to demand. And it is partially due to the high cost of housing, even inland, relative to local wages. This is leading many investors in the Miami real estate market to buy single-family homes to be carved up into multiple units, each one rented out individually.
As the largest city in Florida, it would end up with multiple large universities for that reason alone. However, Miami’s international appeal and unique position have made it an education and research hub, resulting in the creation of institutions like Florida International University. There are almost forty colleges and universities within forty miles of Miami, hosting over 350,000 students. Ironically, Miami University isn’t among them – that’s in Ohio. The University of Miami, though, is located in Miami and enrolls more than 17,000 students.
Latest Miami Rental Market Trends
Around 70% of households in Miami are renter-occupied. As of January 29, 2023, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Miami, FL is $2,650. This is an 11% increase compared to the previous year. Over the past month, the average rent for a studio apartment in Miami increased by 1% to $2,129. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment increased by 1% to $2,650, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment increased by 3% to $3,500.
- The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Miami, FL is currently $3,500. This is a 13% increase compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Miami, FL is currently $4,000. This is a 21% increase compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 4-bedroom apartment in Miami, FL is currently $6,500. This is a 30% increase compared to the previous year.
The Zumper Miami Metro Area Report analyzed active listings last month across the metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The Florida one bedroom median rent was $1,685 last month. Sunny Isles Beach was the most expensive city with one-bedrooms priced at $2,740. Lauderhill ranked as the least expensive city with rent at $1,460.
Here are the top cities in the metro area where rents are increasing. You can think of investing in these places because they have strong growth and demand for rental properties. You can also use their historical annual growth in rents to help predict future increases or decreases.
The Fastest Growing Cities in Miami Metro Area For Rents (Y/Y%)
- Dania Beach had the fastest growing rent, up 41.9% since this time last year.
- Sunny Isles Beach saw rent climb 33%, making it second.
- Hialeah was third with rent jumping 32.9%.
The Fastest Growing Cities in Miami Metro Area For Rents (M/M%)
- Hialeah had the largest monthly rental growth rate, up 6.3%.
- Dania Beach rent increased 6.1% last month, making it second.
- Pembroke Pines was third with rent climbing 5.9%.
The Strong ROI for Landlords
Investing in the Miami real estate market can give you strong returns. The high demand for properties in southeastern Florida relative to demand limits the ability of people to buy, creating a large pool of renters. Miami ranked second in the nation for the most cost-burdened renters in the country, paying more than half of their income in rent. Rents aren’t as high as they are elsewhere in the country, but given the lower property values than markets like Silicon Valley or NYC real estate market, it is a good ROI. For example, the median home price is around $350,000, while the median rent is $1900 a month.
A $1900 a month rent would be considered a burden for a household earning $70,000 a year, while median incomes in the area are $50,000. Whether you’re renting to students, low-income workers, or snowbirds, potential investors in the Miami housing market will be glad to know this is a landlord-friendly market. Florida doesn’t have laws on rent control. Security deposits aren’t capped, and you can start eviction if the rent is three days late. Damage to the property requires a seven-day conditional quit notice, while repeated lease violations allow for a seven-day unconditional notice.
Where To Buy Miami Investment Properties?
In any real estate investment, investment, cash flow is gold. The Miami real estate market offers diverse opportunities to real estate investors, allowing you to choose which rental markets you want to cater to and profit from. Good cash flow from Miami investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt.
Therefore, finding the best investment property in Miami in a growing neighborhood would be key to your success. As with any real estate purchase, act wisely. Evaluate the specifics of the Miami real estate market at the time you intend to purchase. When looking for the best real estate investments in Miami, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth. Both of them translate into high demand for housing.
There are 47 neighborhoods in Miami. Popular neighborhoods in Miami include Brickell, Kendall, Aventura, Downtown Miami, Little Haiti, Mid Beach, Edgewater, Downtown, Coconut Grove, Brickell, Wynwood, Miami Springs, South Point, Miami Shores, Hialeah, El Portal, Santa Clara, South Beach. According to Realtor.com, Southwest Coconut Grove has a median listing price of $1.5M, making it the most expensive neighborhood. Model City is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of $280K. The median rent is around $1,950.
Here are some of the best neighborhoods within the Miami Beach area where you can buy investment properties.
Brickell is one of the hottest affordable areas in Miami. It is located on the Miami South Channel, thus it is on the waterfront. Yet the average home here sells for around four hundred thousand dollars. This is a relative bargain compared to incredibly expensive neighborhoods like Coconut grove located a few miles to the south. Brickell is located south of downtown Miami, putting it in easy reach of that massive job market.
This is a densely built-up area, so you pay around 480 dollars per square foot. This is somewhat higher than the Miami average. On the other hand, the median rent is 2600 dollars a month, somewhat higher than the 2450 average for the Miami-Dade area. Brickell Key charges roughly 2600 dollars a month, too.
Liberty City is a few blocks from Biscayne Bay. Highway 195 forms its southern border, while Highway 95 is its eastern border. Being so close to major highways is part of the reason why the average home here costs a quarter-million dollars. The relatively cheap south Florida real estate explains why this is a warm housing market despite the chill caused by the coronavirus. Home prices here have appreciated almost ten percent year over year, and they're expected to remain unchanged through 2021.
Overtown is another neighborhood close to that's not quite on the water's edge. It is bisected by Highway 395 and I-95. This neighborhood is popular with medical professionals because it is dominated by the Miami-Dade College Medical campus and several hospitals. The average home here costs around a quarter-million dollars. Before the coronavirus crisis, property values had appreciated a healthy five percent year over year. Projected home values are unchanged for 2021. Residents are attracted to the affordable property, though property owners may appreciate the many people moving here due to the 1,650 dollar a month rent.
Here are the ten neighborhoods in Miami having the highest real estate appreciation rates since 2000—List by Neigborhoodscout.com.
- Downtown North
- Little Haiti South
- Overtown North
- Downtown Southeast
- Downtown Northwest
- Downtown
- Downtown East
- Town Square
- Park West
- Downtown Southwest
Tampa is another great real estate investment market in Central Florida. It growing steadily, prices are still low and properties have a good chance of a strong appreciation in the coming years. With a population of more than 4 million, the Greater Tampa Bay area includes the Tampa and Sarasota metro areas. It is not only an attractive metropolitan area but is also one of the most frequently visited tourist destinations. It is one of the hottest real estate markets for rental homes in the nation.
There’s a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for entry-level single-family homes. In the past ten years, the annual real estate appreciation rate has amounted to 5.44% which puts Tampa in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation. There is less than 2-month of available inventory in the entire Tampa metro area – down almost 21.4% over last year. This is one of the key factors in rising home prices.
Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.
NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties in South Florida real estate markets. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States.
We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Miami. Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Miami investment properties. Depending upon the availability, we can help you to find “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Miami.
Not just limited to Miami or Florida but you can also invest in some of the hottest real estate markets for rental properties in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Miami turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.
Do not base real estate or financial decisions on this article. This article includes third-party content from references. Norada Real Estate Investments does not represent, warrant, or guarantee that the information is accurate, reliable, or current, even though it is believed to be reliable. Use the references below to verify all information. Norada Real Estate Investments does not predict US housing market conditions. This article educated potential Miami real estate investors. Buying an investment property requires research, planning, and budgeting. Deals can fail. Always research and consult a real estate investment counselor.
References
Market Data, Reports & Forecasts
https://www.miamirealtors.com/
https://www.zillow.com/miami-fl/home-values
https://www.miamirealtors.com/category/news-releases/
https://www.redfin.com/city/11458/FL/Miami/housing-market
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/miami/real-estate
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Miami_FL/overview
https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/miami-real-estate-forecast/
Impact of the COVID-19
https://www.wlrn.org/news/2018-01-31/miami-has-more-renters-than-homeowners-study-says
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article233105012.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-miami-there-are-too-many-condos-and-not-enough-foreign-buyers-11561658937
Reasons to Invest
https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/florida/miami/
http://www.landlordstation.com/blog/top-landlord-friendly-states/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article183538886.html
https://www.miamidade.gov/business/library/reports/2013-income-poverty.pdf
https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/65-percent-of-miamians-live-in-rentals-most-of-any-major-american-city-6562379
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ingowinzer/2018/03/13/as-appreciation-stalls-differences-in-florida-markets-matter-more-than-ever/#11b7521f6584
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Three-Florida-Cities-Ranked-Among-Worst-in-US-For-Renters-494267151.html
Foreign buyers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/31/look-whos-buying-up-miami-real-estate-now/#629e4d201232
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2017-07-13/venezuelas-loss-is-miamis-gai
