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Bizjournals recently analyzed private-sector employment patterns in America’s major metropolitan areas using data from the past five years. Using a nine-part formula, with data compiled since 2003 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they analyzed employment trends in the nation’s 100 largest labor markets.

According to the report, these are the top 10 labor markets in the country:

1. Houston, TX
2. Austin, TX
3. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
4. Raleigh, N.C.
5. Seattle, WA
6. San Antonio, TX
7. Charlotte, NC
8. Oklahoma City, OK
9. Durham, N.C.
10. Salt Lake City, UT

It’s interesting to note that Texas has four of the hottest jobs markets in the country.

And once again, last place belongs to Detroit which has ranked as the coldest job market in America for the past two years. The biggest problem remains Detroit’s heavy reliance on domestic automakers, resulting in a loss of 30,800 jobs since mid-2007.

In an effort to revive the economy the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate today but a half-point (0.5%). This lowers the rate to 1 percent – the lowest rate since 2003-2004. The last time the federal funds rate was lower than 1 percent was during the Eisenhower administration in 1958.

Today’s interest rate cut was the second half-point cut this month. The last one on October 8, 2008 was in a coordinated move with foreign central banks.

This year’s economic weakness has created huge declines in the price of oil and other commodities. While many economists believe the country is in a recession, they also believe the recent rate cuts and other aggressive actions by the Fed will help prevent a prolonged downturn and help unfreeze the credit markets.

If these aggressive moves by the federal government are successful in thawing the credit markets, it will be great news for real estate investors who are having difficulty financing their real estate investments.

eppraisal.com released their National Market Analysis Report for the three months ending August 2008. Of the 188 market areas tracked across the U.S., 43.6 percent show a decline in median home values, which is up from 32.4 percent from the previous three months. This ends the upward trend from the last three reports where the number of markets showing an increase in median home values was on the rise.

Most markets in the report are showing signs of leveling out or increasing values, with California being an exception. California again tops the bottom of the list with 27 of the 28 markets tracked by eppraisal.com showing declining median home values. Chico, CA is the only market that is showing signs of rebounding (see figure below). For this report Chico, CA, saw an increase of 1.70 percent to a median sales price of $245,000.

Six California markets saw double digit declines: Madera down 10 percent, Bakersfield down 10.7 percent, Riverside-San Bernardino down 11.1 percent, Modesto down 11.3 percent, Salinas down 14.3 percent, and Merced down 11.5 percent.

Markets in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon continue to gain in value and continue to show signs of a changing market. For example, the Raleigh-Cary, NC, Florence, SC, and the Dayton, OH, markets all saw median home value increases of over five percent. Raleigh-Cary, NC, increased by 8.1 percent to $200,000, Florence, SC, increased by 8.7 percent to $106,000, and Dayton, OH, increased by 10.6 percent to $110,000.

Texas continues to hold on to the postitive trend while Florida starts to dip back into negative waters. In the last report 11 of the 20 areas tracked in Florida by eppraisal.com showed positive increases in median values. This month the number of Florida markets showing increases in home values is down to six: Fort Walton Beach-Destin up 9.7 percent to $203,000, Palm Coast up 8 percent to $175,000, Panama City up 6.7 percent to $176,000, Palm Bay-Melbourne up 5.7 percent to $156,000, West Palm-Boca Raton up 5.6 percent to $285,000 and Jacksonville up 1.7 percent to $183,900. Texas shows the opposite with seven of the 11 areas tracked by eppraisal.com showing increases in median values. At the top of the list sits McAllen-Edinburg with an increase of 7 percent to $115,875, Waco with an increase of 6 percent to 119,621, and Midland with an increase of 4 percent to $172,500.

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Real estate has been regarded as one of the safest investments for quite some time.  However, despite the relative safety of real estate investments, there is always the possibility that the real estate market can fall just like any other investment.

Over the long term, real estate remains relatively safe simply due to the fact that the population of the world continues to increase while land is a limited resource.  When there is an occasional downturn in the real estate market, it is important to recognize certain strategies which can be used in order to keep a real estate investment from becoming a complete loss.

The first thought many people have when they realize the market has turned down is to attempt to sell the property as quickly as possible before the market gets worse.  In reality, most investors have found that it is often better if they can hold onto the property and ride out the market downturn.  While it is possible the market might dip lower before it rebounds, historically real estate markets always come back.

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In some of the worst housing markets in the country, deflation has reached double-digit proportions.  While housing woes have spread around the country, California appears to be poised to rank among the worse.  One of the primary reasons for this is the fact that in the last few quarters California has experienced the largest rate of deflating home prices.  In fact, home prices in California have fallen to levels that have been unprecedented.

Miami, Florida has also proven to be a difficult market at the moment.  The weak mortgage market and record high rates of foreclosures have led to declining home values as well.  In fact, Miami has been among the worst home markets in the country for two years running. The condo boom in Miami just a few years ago has further fueled the problems that have now spiraled into a massive real estate bust.

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The bill designed to rescue the nation’s troubled financial system was voted down today in a stunning vote of 228 to 205.

The rejected bailout shocked the capital and worldwide markets even after warnings from President Bush and congressional leaders that the economy could continue to suffer and possibly nosedive if not passed soon.

The stock market plunged even before the vote to reject the bill was officially announced on the House floor.  The decline for the day surpassed the 721-point previous record on the day after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.  In percentage terms it was well short of the drops on Black Monday in October 1987 and at the start of the Great Depression.

Although we as a country will work our way out of this financial mess, credit will continue to stay tight in the meantime.  Conventional and “A” paper loans are still available to borrowers with good credit, but don’t expect to find many options if you are looking for a sub-prime loan or have poor credit.

Let’s continue to stay glued to our TV’s and radios and watch the drama unfold…

Back in 1999, Fannie Mae introduced a pilot program that lowered the credit requirements on loans that it would purchase from banks and lending institutions.  The program was is intended, in part, to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have lower credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.

The pilot program started with 24 banks in 15 markets and expanded nationwide in less than one year.  However, even back in September 1999 there was concern that Fannie Mae, a government-subsidized corporation, could run into trouble in an economic downturn.  And if that happened it would prompt a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.

With the recent problems in the financial markets and the government’s proposed $700 Billion bailout package, it looks like history may be repeating itself like it did with the savings and loan crisis of the 80’s.

What can you do as a real estate investor today?  Well, if you have good credit and the funds to invest, now is a good time to find all kinds of great real estate deals coupled with low interest rate financing.  If you’ve been sitting on the fence then take action today.

If you stop and think about it, it was the housing market collapse that pulled these large financial institutions down over the last several weeks.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned or guaranteed one-half of the $12 Trillion mortgage market.  Lehman Brothers had over $60 Billion in mortgage related assets on its books.

This has all led to a credit bubble burst in the shadow of the housing “bubble”.  So what happens if credit tightens even more because money isn’t available to the financial system?  Simply put, we may see house prices fall even further in most parts of the country because those who want to buy won’t be able to.

If the housing market doesn’t stabilize, then the financial market won’t either.  Are we talking a year or two from now?  There is strong evidence that the worst hasn’t even happened yet – particularly in states like California and Florida.  You can expect to see banks taking back and unloading a lot of inventory over the next twelve months or more.

In the meantime, focus your real estate investing in markets that have strong economic fundamentals to maximize your short and long term appreciation and overall return on investment.

The short answer is “extremely unlikely”.  The reason is that a small increase in some costs (like gas) only creates a marginal shift towards other costs (not a decrease in those costs).

One of the most important commodities in a first world economy such as ours is gas and other energy sources.  If there is a rapid rise in energy costs, it could lead to a significant increase in overall prices – this is known as inflation.

The question now becomes: Is the rise in gasoline prices strong enough to create an inflationary trend that will stall growth in consumer spending?

While millions of households feel the pinch of decreasing discretionary income due to higher gas prices, the fact of the matter is that this will only be a hiccup in the U.S. economy.  Overall spending and consumption will continue at a similar pace.

At the end of the day, if we walk away with long term gains in energy efficiency then the next generation of households will benefit from their own increase in discretionary income.

The 2007 annual ranking of the nation’s leading tourism destinations compares domestic and international tourism spending, tourism job creation, and the degree to which each city’s economic vitality is dependent upon visitors. The results show that a significant gain in international visitors propelled New York City to the top spot in 2007.

The U.S. City Tourism Impact, recently released by Global Insight, combines domestic and international travel volumes and spending data from D.K. Shifflet & Associates, as well as the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Office of Travel and Tourism Industries with metropolitan area economic data and models from Global Insight to rank the most popular tourist destinations in the U.S.

Last month resales jumped 3.1% to the highest level in half a year.  Additionally, new home sales jumped 2.1% according to the Commerce Department.  This came as a mild surprise to Wall Street.

Resales were up all around with the West leading the country with a  solid 9.7% increase.  Following that was the Northeast with a 6% gain, the Midwest with a 1% gain and the south with a minor drop of 0.5%.

New home sales showed a similar pattern with the Northeast gaining a 39% increase, the West with a 10% increase and the Midwest with an 8.2% jump.  The south had a drop in new home sales with a 2.5% drop.

Can this be another sign of a market turnaround?  Although this is very good news, we must keep some facts in perspective.  A large number of these sales come from first time home buyers and real estate investors sitting on the fence waiting for a clear signal that prices may have bottomed.

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For the first time in a long time the real estate market is showing us more positive signals than negative.  Nominal price drops in 883 core based statistical areas have finally stabilized, showing no declines in the past two months.  This is significant because we must see a flattening out in the market before we can see a cyclical turnaround.  We’ve also seen prices hit bottom in even the hardest hit markets in California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona.  Therefore, prices are not likely to drop much further.

In its latest quarterly report, even the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has seen a similar bottoming out in prices.  There are even signs of a turnaround in several key markets.  Year over year, homes sales were up in 26% of all states and 35% of all Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

The biggest prices jumps were in Yakima, WA at 8.9%, Binghampton, NY at 8.7%, and Amarillo, TX at 7.2%.  However, nationally the median sales price is still down by 7.6% from the second quarter of 2007 at $206,500.  And new housing starts fell by 3% last month primarily due to unsold builder inventories.

All this has prompted larger investors to jump in and start buying packages of properties, sometimes 10 or more.  So if you’ve been waiting on the sideline for the real estate bottom to arrive then your opportunity to start buying investment property may finally be here.

As a real estate investor, you can help maximize your profits by knowing the liquidity of a given real estate market. By knowing the liquidity of a market, you will better understand that market and therefore be able to take advantage of the various buying strategies afforded by it.

One of the measurements frequently used to gauge the liquidity of a given market is the absorption rate. This is basically the rate in which a specific segment of a real estate market sells in a given time frame. These segments are usually categorized by price range but may also be categorized by property type.

The easiest way to understand absorption is to put it in more tangible terms and measure it in “Months of Inventory”. In other words, we take the number of active listings and divide it by the total number of sold transactions within the same month to give us the months of inventory.

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There are more signs of improvement in the real estate markets around the country.

Nationally, sales were up by 2% in May with the Midwest reporting a 5.5% increase and 6% in the Northeast. Condo sales also jumped up by 6% nationwide. Even some of the hardest hit markets showed increases including Sacramento, CA, Sarasota, FL and battle Creek, MI.

Mortgage rates took a welcomed dip recently reversing the upticks over the previous weeks. Thirty years fixed rate loans are back under 6.4% and fifteen year rates are under 6%.

It’s going to take more than lower interest rates and increased sales to help the housing market recover, but they are positive signs in the right direction. Along with increased prices in the hardest hit markets we should begin to see the beginning of a recovery.

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won’t happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor. Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Continue reading »

Last year investors accounted for 21% (about 1 out of 5) of new home purchases according to a new study by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  That’s a whopping 1.35 million housing units – a large portion of the total market.  The record was set in 2005 at the height of the boom at 28%.

A major difference today is that investors are not buying to speculate and push prices up quickly as we’ve seen happen in the first half of the decade.  The median price for an investment property in 2005 was $183,500 compared to $150,000 in 2007.

According to the study, about 50% of the investors said they planned on holding onto their properties for anywhere from 3 to 11 years.  Another 18% planned to hold from one to three years and 20% were not sure.  Only 10% said they planned to sell (or flip) their property in a year or less.

The median household income of all home buyers last year was $71,700 while investor’s median income was about $93,000.  Interestingly 40% of all investor sales last year were accounted for by those under age 35.

The study also revealed that investors are optimistic about the direction of the market.  57% said they plan on buying additional property in the next 24 months compared to 44% primary vacation home buyers.  80% of investor buyers said that this is a good time to buy real estate compared to 59% of primary home buyers.

I agree that most real estate investors know there are many good deals out there.  They key is to have a clear investment strategy and know where to buy based on local economics and market timing.

Is the housing crisis over?

The Wall Street Journal published an interesting opinion article on May 6, 2008 titled “The Housing Crisis Is Over”. Here’s the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html

Although our business has seen a small upward tick in sales activity over the last four weeks, it’s hard to believe the crisis is over. (For those of you who don’t know, our company markets real estate investment opportunities to investors nationwide).

There are still a very large number of adjustable rate mortgages that were originated three years ago that are set to reset this year. These will likely increase the pace and number of foreclosures throughout 2008 and into early 2009, and those problems will extend into other areas of the mortgage industry. All of which will keep lending guidelines very tight this year.

It could be argued that the housing market is dragging along the bottom, but the fact of the matter is that lenders are still pulling back on their lending programs and that doesn’t help to sell houses in order to absorb existing inventory and help stimulate the housing market.

The large number of expert opinions and reports predict the national housing crisis to end somewhere between 2009 and 2011. What’s your opinion?

We are currently experiencing the worst real estate recession this country has seen in decades. Property prices in some areas have fallen to the point where many people are paying more on a mortgage than their property is actually worth! In fact housing prices dropped at the fastest rate ever in February indicating that the housing slump is probably gaining momentum. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities fell by 12.7% in February versus last year, the largest decline since its inception in 2001. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas reported record annual declines.

Many builders and developers around the country have gone bankrupt, even the large ones that recently appeared financially solid. There are hundreds of developments scattered around the United States that have been left unfinished. And there are thousands of new construction homes that are either in the process of construction or have never been occupied. Continue reading »

It can be scary to invest in anything during a recession. We all carry visions of the great depression and bread lines and people selling apples. The idea of putting your money into anything other than your mattress can be frightening for some. However, real estate should never be looked upon as an ordinary investment.

Real estate is one of the few investments that we actually use and need. Everyone needs a place to live and call home. And real estate has systematically and quantifiably proven to have risen in value over the decades. Continue reading »

With falling prices and rising inventories, investors are finding themselves in the best buying position in almost a decade.

A recent polls by Reuters/Zogby tells us that it’s a good time to buy. And another poll by Associated Press and AOL also reveals that it’s a good time to buy but 60% of those polled won’t buy any real estate within the next two years.

The disparity is probably due to economic fears which are causing consumers to tighten their purse strings. The Reuters/Zogby poll said that nearly 75% of American’s believe the economy is in a recession right now, and almost 50% rated their personal financial situation as negative.

The AP/AOL poll said that nearly 14% of mortgage holders fear they will miss a mortgage payment soon. And 30% said they are concerned their home’s value will decrease within the next two years.

The important thing to remember is that you should stay focused on your local neighborhood and those of your real estate investments. Remember that real estate is primarily driven by local economic factors such as jobs, housing inventory, and supply and demand.