The US could be heading for a national housing shortage this year despite the real estate sector struggling with healthy inventories, three million foreclosures, falling values, and rising vacancy rates, it is claimed.

Several leading economists are warning that not enough new properties are being built to keep up with expected population growth. They estimate that only a third of what will be needed is currently under construction.

According to Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, the US needs to add 1.5 million housing units per year just to keep up with population growth plus another 100,000 for fires and tear downs. ‘We need 1.6 million or more per year. Right now we’re down to about six and a half, seven months’ inventory, whether you look at new homes or existing homes. Housing starts are now between 500,000 and 600,000 a year,’ he said.

‘I think one of the secret investments, if you will, over the next decade is going to be housing. It is extremely cheap, inflation is on the way. But people are running away from it. You know, it’s that old adage – when there’s blood in the streets, that’s when you invest. And this is the time, I think, for real estate,’ Wesbury added.

Read more »

It may not be the most widespread measure of housing prices, but if you want to follow a powerful driver, look at rents.

Specifically, it’s the rents Americans pay on condos, apartments or houses that are about the same size, and share the same neighborhood as your ranch or colonial, that in the end determine what your house is worth.

"If you look at the trend in rents to see where housing prices are headed, you’re looking at the right measure," says Yale economist Robert Shiller.

In recent reports, Deutsche Bank demonstrates how steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That’s a golden mean that America hasn’t seen in almost a decade. The DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.

Before we get to the numbers, let’s examine why rents exercise a kind of gravitational pull over home prices.

Read more »

Ben Bernanke, "Time Magazine’s Man of the Year".

How about “Dumbass of the Decade?”

You just can’t make this stuff up! This choice by Time Magazine displays the collusion between the government and the main stream media. Bernanke as "Person of the Year" is almost as bad as President Obama receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

I believe in the next year or so it will become apparent to all the "sheeple" out there, who just gobble up all the BS from the main stream media as the truth, that Ben Bernanke is actually "Dumbass of the Decade" instead of "Man of the Year" when everyone realizes what he actually did with our money. The only true way to find out what he did is to audit the Fed. Unfortunately, if the Fed were audited today we would probably have another stock market crash when everyone realizes where all the money went to.

The Dumbass Bernanke Timeline:

Read more »

Existing home sales surprised the markets by rising 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units in November, the highest since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s only 10% below the all-time peak in 2005.

What’s more is that house prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, rose for the fourth consecutive month in September before stabilizing in October when prices were flat.

The NAR is inevitably convinced that the worst is over and that housing is due for a rapid recovery, and that home prices will take out 2006’s peaks some time in 2011 or 2012.

Not so fast, guys!

The recovery in housing has been boosted by just about every artificial means imaginable:

• Interest rates have been kept historically low at 0% – 0.25% for a very long time.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bankrupt behemoths of housing finance, have been bailed out with what amounts to a blank check from taxpayers.
• The Federal Housing Agency (FHA) went on making mortgages with 3% down payments when nobody else was, thus very likely landing taxpayers with another bill for some large fraction of $1 trillion.
• And the government has been handing out cash subsidies for refinancing houses that were about to be repossessed and $8,000 subsidies for first time buyers – now $6,500 for all homebuyers.

Of course it looks like the housing market has recovered! The question is what happens when some of these subsidies are taken away?   Read more »

Categories are graded from A thru F:

Economic Growth: D
The economy remains weak and although some indicators have improved compared to last month, they are improving from very low numbers. The third quarter GDP growth rate was revised downward to +2.8% from the preliminary report of +3.5%. Despite the downward revision, it still marks a great improvement from the second-quarter, and is the first quarterly increase in four quarters.

Job losses have eased slightly compared to last month, yet remain awful compared to history. In the last 12 months the U.S. has lost nearly 4.7 million jobs, which is equal to a decline of 3.4% of the total payroll workforce – representing one of the largest declines in 60 years. The headline unemployment rate surprisingly declined this month, reaching 10.0% in November, down from 10.2% in October.

The U-6, a broader measure of unemployment that covers part-time workers who would like full-time work and those who have given up looking for work, also decreased to 17.2% in November, down from 17.5% in October. Mass layoff events – defined as a cut of 50 or more jobs from a single employer – eased once again in October to 2,127, and marks the first year-over-year decline since August 2007, representing a 3.5% drop compared to last year.

The length of time required to find employment continues to increase, with job seekers taking over twice the normal length of time to find employment. The November CPI (all items) rose to 1.8% from one year ago, while the Core CPI (minus food & energy) remained flat at 1.7%.

Leading Indicators: C-
The U.S. leading indicators took a leg down this month after a run of steady improvements in recent months. In October, the Leading Economic Index 6-month growth rate declined to 10.2%, yet remains one of the largest year-over-year growth rates on record since 1983. Although the ECRI Leading Index, which is a gauge of future economic growth, also declined to 23% since one year ago, it still represents one of the largest growth rates since ECRI began tracking the statistic in 1968.

Stocks continued to perform well throughout November. All four major indices we track have now posted positive year-over-year results, ranging from +17% to +40%, compared to one year ago. The S&P Homebuilding Index inched up in November and has shown a year-over-year improvement for the second time since April 2006. The spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury increased slightly in November, reaching 177 bps. Since the 10-year treasury is seen as a risk free investment, the spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury displays the perceived risk of investing in corporate bonds, which has declined recently as Wall Street has become less worried about businesses failing. CEOs are now much more confident about the economy, according to the CEO Confidence Index.

Affordability: C-
Affordability improved once again this month as home prices and mortgage rates continued to decline. Our housing-cost-to-income ratio has fallen to 26.1%, which is near the lowest level since data for the index began in 1981. Homeownership costs have fallen drastically in the past year, and now owning the median-priced home is just $54 more expensive than renting the average apartment – and in many parts of the country homeownership costs much less. Due to large job losses and government furloughs, household income has fallen 4% year-over-year to $53,293. Despite the decline in incomes, the median-home-price-to-income ratio remains below the historical average, currently at 3.2. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to decline, reaching 4.78% by November month-end, while adjustable mortgage rates fell to 4.35%. The Fed’s overnight lending target rate remains at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, which is the lowest level on record. The share of ARM applications declined to 4.8% in the last week of November which is a significantly smaller share than the peak level of 35% of total applications in early 2005.

Consumer Behavior: D-
In general, consumer behavior declined compared to last month. Consumer confidence experienced a negligible uptick compared to last month, reaching 49.5, and remains very low compared to history. Consumer sentiment declined in November to 67.4 and also remains well below the historical average. The Consumer Comfort Index increased slightly in November to a monthly average of -46.4. The personal savings rate fell to 4.4%, which is down from a recent peak in May of 6.9%. The U.S. net worth increased nearly $2.7 trillion dollars in the third quarter from the prior quarter. Despite the recent quarterly improvement, the decline year-over-year of $3.4 trillion remains one of the largest on record. The Misery Index – which is based on the unemployment rate and inflation – increased this month.

Existing Home Market: C-
The change from last month in the existing home market was mixed. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), seasonally adjusted annual resale activity continued to experience large gains in October, rising to 6.1 million home sales, and improving 10% from last month. The 12-month rolling count of resale sales activity has also improved for four consecutive months. Resale sales have experienced an increase due to the $8,000 federal tax credit that was set to expire November 30th, before it got extended to Spring 2010. The national median price of an existing single-family home fell to $173,100 in October from $175,900 in September, and has fallen 7% year-over-year. The pace of decline in the Case-Shiller national index, which tracks paired sales, improved drastically in the third quarter, and marks only the second time in over three years that the index decline eased. Although the Case-Shiller national index remains down nearly 9% year-over-year, it is a sharp improvement from 19% decline reported in the first quarter. The monthly 10-market and 20-market Case-Shiller indices also remain down year-over-year, yet have experienced month-over-month improvements since May, and the annual declines have eased in recent months. The number of unsold homes declined again in October, and fell to 7.0 months of supply, reaching very close to the historical average. In October, pending home sales volume improved again, increasing almost 32% year-over-year. As of the third quarter, 23% of all homes with a mortgage throughout the U.S. were worth less than the original value of the mortgage.

New Home Market: D
The new home market was mixed this month. Builder confidence declined in December as the Housing Market Index fell to 16. The seasonally adjusted new home sales volume increased in October compared to September, reaching 430,000 transactions – up 5.1% year-over-year. The median single-family new home price increased to $212,200 in October, but has declined 0.5% year-over-year. The inventory of unsold homes fell to 6.7 months, down from 7.4 months last month, and is a large improvement compared to 12.5 months of supply in the beginning of 2009.

Repairs and Remodeling: D-
The conditions for repairs and remodeling remain poor this month. Homeowner improvement activity worsened in the third quarter, representing a decline of 9.4% year-over-year. The Remodeling Market Index improved to 39.8 in the third quarter, and has rapidly rebounded after bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2008. Despite the recent increases, the index remains well below the historical average of 50. The decline in residential construction eased slightly in October, although it has fallen 24% year-over-year.

Housing Supply: F
Housing supply worsened this month. Total completions improved 9% compared to the prior month, reaching 810,000, although they have fallen 25% year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted new home starts increased this month, as single-family starts rose 2% and multifamily starts improved 67% compared to last month. Seasonally adjusted total permits also increased in November to 584,000 units. Total permit activity has fallen 7% year-over-year and over 74% since its most recent peak in September 2005. Although vacancy rates in the U.S. have improved in recent quarters, the majority of the U.S. remains oversupplied compared to history. Just four states in the U.S. are currently undersupplied – Texas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Iowa.

* US Building Market Intelligence™ report is produced by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Housing prices have taken a beating over the last few years all around the country.  However, a few major cities have finally hit bottom and are on their way back.

The question that some are asking now is whether the rebound is temporary, or a clear sign that those markets have come back from their trough.

Here are ten major cities that are clearly on the mend:

A large percentage of the sales activity today is coming from first-time home buyers and investors.  In some markets this activity makes up over 75% of the total sales volume.

Remember that job growth is the primary driver of housing demand.  And job growth translates into more people with incomes who can buy or rent homes.  These markets have not been affected as much by the high unemployment we see in other parts of the country.

If you are a real estate investor sitting on the sidelines waiting for a bottom then this may be the nudge you need to get up and start investing.  There are a large number of prudent real estate investing opportunities available today with historically low interest rates to boot!

Just when you thought foreclosure filings were stabilizing, they hit another all-time high with almost 938,000 homeowners filing in the third quarter, according to Realty Trac.  This is a 5% increase from the previous quarter.

Six states account for 62% of the nations foreclosures:
California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in the third quarter.  That accounts for 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

Although California’s foreclosure activity decreased almost 2% from Q2 there were still 250,054 properties that received a foreclosure filing.   That was a 10% drop in default notices but a 4% increase in scheduled auctions and 12% increase in REOs.

Read more »

I have avoided this subject since it is extremely comprehensive and difficult to comprehend. But out of popular request, by you my readers, I have decided to tackle the subject of US currency valuations, its impacts, and related investor fear in this article.

The U.S. dollar is the preferred world reserve currency and the most powerful instrument both domestic and international. This article explores how you, the real estate investor, are impacted from its valuation and what we should be doing as a nation to best manage it.

Fear is certainly not unwarranted given that a swing in dollar valuation against foreign currencies impacts the price of almost all U.S. goods. In particular, investors of U.S. Real Estate and U.S. Equities watch our currency very closely to monitor the future health of our economy. When the dollar is highly valued compared to other currencies the US consumer reaps lower domestic prices for all imported consumer goods and materials (everything from toys to building materials). Of course a highly valued U.S. dollar makes all of our exported goods more expensive to international consumers.

In contrast a weak US dollar makes imported consumer goods more expensive and exported goods less expensive to the rest of the world. Large swings create havoc to our economy and make monetary policy difficult at best. Ultimately, ourselves and the international community strive for a predictable and stable U.S. currency. This allows us to regulate our monetary policy more effectively and stabilizes the prices of goods and services. From time to time we have seen our international suppliers/buyers manipulate our currency in hopes of getting more out of the U.S. consumer, however given our recent economic woes, most of the international community is trying to create dollar stability.

Read more »

It is well known that income producing real estate is one of the best investments you can make. What is less well known is that income producing real estate allows you to get paid to borrow money. At least that’s been the case historically.

The reason for this has to do with the reality of inflation. In times of inflation, your best protection against the declining value of the dollar is high quality, long-term, investment-grade, fixed-rate debt attached to a piece of income producing property. In a nutshell, the right kind of debt is good.

Here’s how it works:

Assume that you purchased a property back in 1979 and that a dollar was actually worth a full dollar ($1.00). Then, thirty years later you find that same dollar worth only $0.24 because of continued inflation (driven by the government’s absurd economic policy).

Although the overall purchasing power of the dollar has decreased over those thirty years due to inflation, the principal balance on your long-term debt is never adjusted in step with that inflation. By paying down your fixed-rate debt with continually CHEAPER DOLLARS than those you originally borrowed with, you are effectively saving yourself a lot of money each and every year.

Now, think about it another way:

Assume you purchased $1 million worth of income producing property with a combined mortgage balance of $800,000. And let’s assume that over the course of one year you didn’t pay down any principal and there was a 4 percent rate of inflation. Your loan of $800,000 would now be worth only $768,000 in terms of real dollars. That’s a reduction of $32,000 in one year!

Read more »

Is the U.S. housing market truly at a turning point, as real estate investors seem to increasingly believe? Or is this actually a false dawn, meaning that there are problems ahead for those who turned bullish too soon?

New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case-Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

Housing stocks are certainly acting as if a recovery must be on the way. Pulte Homes Inc. has more than doubled from its low. Toll Brothers Inc. is up around 70% from its bottom. D.R. Horton Enterprises is up almost four times from its bottom. Lennar Corp. is up about 4.5 times from its low. Finally, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. is up almost tenfold from its low after a flirtation with bankruptcy. Yet all of these companies are still racking up quarterly losses, according to their most recent earnings reports.

In terms of house prices, it would seem unlikely that a bear market bottom has been reached. Yes, the average house price is now back down around its long-term average of about 3.2 times average earnings, or only a little above it. But history suggests that markets don’t bottom at their average valuation: In fact, after such a huge excess to the upside, they overshoot on the downside.

Read more »

In the past 36 months Real Estate has seen a decrease in its average mean value, depending on your metro area, an average of 12 to 32 percent.  This is referred to as deflation (in economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services). Deflation is not necessarily bad for everyone, especially for new market buyers that need a more affordable housing price in order to purchase.

Ultimately, a stable market economy strives for price stability.  In Real Estate this is usually meeting or slightly beating the United States inflationary rate (the opposite of deflation and normally measured with the use of a publicly posted index called the Consumer Price Index).  A stable Real Estate market typically lasts many years and almost always follows a Real Estate Recession.  In fact the bulk of years within the seven to ten year cycles, represent a stable Real Estate Market.  Therefore, 80 percent or more of the historical annual appreciation in real estate has valuation increases at or just above inflation.

For those of you who are business people, you likely seek investments that are stable, predictable, and going up in value each year.  The conservative investor should consider buying during Real Estate market cycles that hold a stable future with somewhat predictable results (i.e. less speculative).  Such a market is likely to exist for the next 5 years.  For those of you sitting on the sidelines wondering when to enter this market, it is time for you to jump in, prior to any inflation, and thereby purchasing at the bottom.  Anyone who classifies themselves as a conservative low risk real estate investor should certainly enter the market right now.

What about HYPERINFLATION?

Read more »

All economists and our financial markets are betting on this quarter to produce positive GDP.  Positive GDP marks the ending of the recession. Unfortunately with low wages and high unemployment the consumer will feel less positive over the next year. Still we are marking an end to the worst recession since the Great Depression and everyone should be pleased with this.

Road to REAL ESTATE RECOVERY

Now let’s talk about real estate and recovery; The regional markets that had received the highest historical appreciation rates during 2003 to 2006 also had some of the largest price adjustments over the past 36 months. States that had these incredible high real estate returns, like California and Florida, have also seen the highest incidents of foreclosures. Logic would dictate that these markets will bounce back the fastest, but unfortunately they too will recover slowly as will the rest of the nation. An economic recession takes time to unwind and buyer exuberance usually only occurs once the entire nation is certain that the real estate market can only have one trend, up.

The psychology of man dictates that a deep recession brings about caution for some time to come (probably a few years). The States that had some of the highest swings will once again have the highest appreciation. Still it is best not to hold your breath for this in areas like California and Florida until old wounds heal (likely a few more years). In the meantime, recovery is with us. Recovery means price declines stop and appreciation kicks in. We are already seeing this in the hardest hit areas with homes priced at or around mean home pricing.

The June 2009 numbers just came out for pending home sales. We had the FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH of pending home sales increases (up 3.6% month to month) and over a 6% increase compared to June 2008. Real estate, like any form of investment, has cyclical patterns that are dependent upon supply and demand. Optimism will once again kick in and sellers, buyers, developers all become happy over time.

Read more »

Is it time to buy a house or investment property?

It Depends…

If you need a place to live and want to own a house, why not? Prices in some areas are fairly reasonable. But if you’re speculating, our guess is that you’ll get a better deal if you wait.

Why?  House prices may be firming in some areas – that’s what the Case-Shiller numbers seem to show. But nationwide, they are probably headed down for quite a while longer.

Here are four reasons why:

First, as you know, this is a depression. It will probably be long. And deep. You wouldn’t know it from looking at the stock market or reading the news. The Dow went up another 114 points yesterday. Oil rose to $71. And the dollar – anticipating inflation – fell to $1.44 per euro.

But that’s what bounces are supposed to look like. They look good enough so that people mistake them for the real thing… and get suckered into more losses.

This is a depression. Depressions drag down asset prices. Typically, prices become much more reasonable. And then they reach UNREASONABLE levels. House prices have become reasonable. Now they will become unreasonably cheap…

Read more »

It took the Wall Street Journal an entire survey to prove what readers of this column have known for months: The housing recovery, as it plays out, will be a localized event, varying greatly city to city, neighborhood to neighborhood, street to street.

The Journal, god bless them, compiled housing data to compare inventory changes, months supply, price drops, unemployment, and default rates across 28 US metro areas. Unsurprisingly, bubble markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami look particularly horrid, whereas areas like Dallas (which avoided much of the housing mania) and cities like Charlotte and Seattle (which are just now seeing price declines accelerate) appear to be holding up rather nicely.

But drilling deeper into the raw data reveals a housing market that’s deeply bifurcated, even within individual cities.

As low-end markets experience a sharp increase in buying activity due to supply shortages and vastly lower prices, illiquid high end markets are experiencing violent price swings — typically in the southward direction. This much is already known, and the Journal’s study simply shows what we’re told ad nauseam: real estate is, in fact, local.

What’s far more applicable to home buyers and sellers around the country, however, isn’t what a few broad (yet important) data points show about what’s happening in a few hundred neighborhoods all lumped together. Instead, it’s where individual submarkets are headed. After all, owning a home is an investment in a neighborhood, a street, a community — not necessarily a metropolitan area at large.

Housing prices, by extension — when measured as broadly as a metro area — are basically meaningless.

Read more »

I don’t know if the real estate bubble is done popping. I suspect it is not.

If there is another shoe waiting to drop on the U.S. economy, its commercial real estate. Bloomberg reports that $165 billion in commercial real estate loans mature this year. They must be refinanced or sold. Either way, it seems like some losses must be taken.

As of July 8, 2009, $108 billion worth of properties were in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy. That’s a lot. Throw in the 22-year high of vacant apartments, and you get a picture where landlords are really struggling.

Goldman Sachs took $700 million in losses from commercial real estate in the last quarter. And it did so without a hiccup. And we have the various government bailout programs to thank for that. Without the government sponsored ability to earn their way out of this mess, that $700 million could’ve been a much bigger deal.

The one hope regarding commercial real estate is that the problem is pretty well known. And so far, it’s not moving the stock market.

Bloomberg threw out some big numbers for regional commercial real estate debt that was due in June. $463 million worth of office loans in Houston, $986 million in industrial mortgages in Portland, Oregon, $96 million in retail property in Orlando.

Was this debt paid? Was it refinanced? Is it in default? We don’t yet know. And we won’t know for up to 90 days, which is a typical grace period. It will be a while before we know whether these loans will become losses.

During the housing mania, it seemed that the majority of the United States suffered from a mass delusion. They believed their properties would always go up in price, but their mortgage payments wouldn’t follow suit.

We have mountains of debt to work through yet. The last bubble was one for the ages. We’ve all heard stories of one kind or another…

There was the glass cutter who earned $5,000 per month, pretax. WaMu gave him a $615,000 home loan with payments of $3,600 per month.

There was a house – a shack, really – that appraised for $132,000 and got a mortgage of $103,000. The owner hadn’t worked in 13 years. Upon foreclosure, a neighbor bought the house and paid $18,000 just to tear the thing down.

And the most eye-popping of all: A house in Fort Myers that sold for $399,600 on Dec. 29, 2005 – only to sell for $589,900 on Dec. 30, 2005.

America, it seems, just went crazy – borrowers, lenders, nearly everybody. These anecdotes and others are told in a new book titled More Mortgage Meltdown by money managers Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue.

But what caused the mania and how we got there is less to the point than what happens from here.

“If the problems in the mortgage market were limited to subprime loans, then the carnage would be mostly behind us,” the authors note. Subprime loans were the riskiest mortgage loans. Prime loans were where the borrower made a substantial down payment and had good credit history. Subprime loans, by contrast, were to borrowers of poor credit quality and spotty job histories.

The bigger problem is that the mortgage bubble infected a number of areas beyond just subprime. The subprime crisis was the first to drop, like a marathon dancer that falls to the floor exhausted. But there are still other dancers on the floor ready to topple over too.

Take a look at this next chart, which has gained some currency in the worried circles of financial people. It’s worth a bit of study. It shows you the other dancers on the floor.

Read more »

Everyone is awaiting the miracle signal of a housing bottom. False media-hyped-market-predictions are certain to play an important role in each of our lives. Listed below are a few of the recent indicators that present opportunities for newscasters to call a market improvement or decline.

1. May annualized sales pace of home resales expected by NAR are 4.8 million, down 33% from our 2005 peak.
2. Annualized new home sales expected for 2009 are 360,000, down 72% from our 2005 peak.
3. Depending on your location, average mean home prices are down by 5% to 38% from the 2005/2006 peaks. May 2008 to May 2009 has the worst statistic with a decline of 14.9% on average.
4. Commerce Department reported a sales drop of 0.6 percent in new home sales in May.
5. Sales of existing home sales rose by 2.4 % from April to May 2009. This represents the third monthly increase this year.
6. The number of unsold homes inventory fell 3.5% in May. This means there is a 9.6 month supply of property at the current sales pace. Normal market is 6 months or fewer, however the 3.5% improvement shows signs of market turnaround.
7. The worst hit markets are showing inventory improvements. For instance, California has market supply of inventory for average priced homes at a 6 month level. These levels signify a market bottom.

Enough of statistics, the numbers confuse the best economists, let alone you. The bottom line is that real estate has market cycles. What goes up, has its time to go down, and then to stabilize. For those of you who enjoy analogies, we are in the 9^th inning of this market downturn. Our next game is market stabilization (usually a 3 year time period). This means prices are somewhat flat while demand and supply equalize.

Read more »

A lot has gone right for the banks lately. Changes to accounting rules have allowed them enough breathing room to operate. Mortgage loan modifications have brought in fees. And trading activities have even helped some banks to boost profits.

Still, I believe there’s another banking shoe to drop.

Foreclosure sales are the majority of home sales these days. And when a bank sells a foreclosed home, it is a realized loss. That’s as opposed to a non-performing loan or a foreclosed home that has yet to be sold, which can be counted as an asset.

Further exacerbating this is that banks are not realizing as much profit on the sales of foreclosed homes as they’re all flooding the market with them and thus driving down prices.

Read more »

Foreclosures are up nationwide, and will continue to rise as prices continue to go down in many markets.  For some, the problem is painful.  Ask the guy down the block from you whose house is in foreclosure.

Some pundits think the rising foreclosures will bankrupt our economy, causing pain for people who lose their business or job as a ripple effect of all these foreclosures.  Others think that the rise in foreclosures is a healthy adjustment to the end of a long real estate boom, and is nature’s way of taking care of a free-market economic cycle.

Who’s right?  Time will tell, but it’s alarming to see politicians trying to fix this problem.  Here are some of their solutions:

Give People Money

Tax the rich, give to the poor.  The federal government now wants to fund programs to help people stay in their homes.

A new bill in the Senate proposes giving money to people who can’t pay their loans.  We taxpayers are confused.  If these people are in trouble because they never should have been given such a loan, why should taxpayer money be used to keep them in their homes that they could not otherwise afford?

Maybe someone in Washington has the answer to that question?

Read more »

According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose by 2.9% in April to an annualized pace of 4.68 million. The gain, the second in three months, was spurred by foreclosure auctions and cheaper prices which attracted bargain hunters. Distressed properties accounted for 45% of all existing home sales and the median price of a home fell 15% from a year earlier. The number of houses on the market climbed 8.8% to 3.97 million in April, and at the current rate of sales, it would take 10.2 months to sell all those homes, Bloomberg reports.

At the same time, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications decreased 14.2% in the week ended May 22. The share of applicants seeking to refinance existing loans fell to 69.3%, from 73.6% in the prior week, as the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose by 12 basis points (bps) to 4.81%, the highest level in more than two months. The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate and one-year adjustable mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.44% and 17 bps to 6.55%, respectively, Bloomberg reports.