Is it a good time to buy or sell a house in Dallas? That's the million-dollar question, right? The Dallas housing market is showing some interesting shifts in 2025. Home sales are down slightly, but inventory is up. This suggests we're moving towards a more balanced market, giving buyers more options and sellers a bit more competition. Let's dig into the data and see what it all means for you.
Dallas Housing Market Trends: What's Happening Right Now?
Home Sales
Home sales in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington saw a slight decrease in May 2025. According to the latest housing report, there were 9,195 sales compared to 9,432 in May 2024, a 2.51% decrease. Year-to-date, sales are also down by 2.03%, with a total of 36,955 closed listings.
Here's a quick summary:
- May 2025 Sales: 9,195
- May 2024 Sales: 9,432
- Year-over-Year Change: -2.51%
- Year-to-Date Sales: 36,955
- Year-to-Date Change: -2.03%
Comparison with National Home Sales in the U.S. in May 2025
Nationally, home sales also experienced a slight dip. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 0.7% decrease year-over-year in May 2025, with sales down from 4.06 million in May 2024. This shows that Dallas isn't alone in experiencing a slight slowdown in sales.
Dallas Home Prices
Home prices in the Dallas area have seen some subtle changes. The median close price for homes in May 2025 was $399,000, a 2.21% decrease compared to $408,000 in May 2024. The average sales price also dipped 1.75% YoY from $525,940 to $516,731
Here's a quick look at some key numbers for May 2025:
- Median Close Price: $399,000
- Average Sales Price: $516,731
- Median Price Per Square Foot: $195.71
- Average Price Per Square Foot: $211.52
Are Home Prices Dropping?
While we're seeing a slight dip in median and average prices year-over-year, it's important to remember that the Dallas market is still relatively strong. These slight decreases could indicate a cooling-off period rather than a significant drop. In my opinion, this is a healthy adjustment after the rapid price increases we saw in recent years. It's bringing a bit more balance to the market.
Comparison with Current National Median Price in the U.S.
Nationally, the median home price is $422,800, with a 1.3% year-over-year increase (May 2025). This indicates that while Dallas prices have seen a slight decrease, the national trend is still pointing towards an increase, albeit a smaller one. Dallas is more affordable than the national median.
Dallas Housing Supply
The housing supply in Dallas has significantly increased. The months' inventory for single-unit residential housing rose from 3.5 to 4.7 months' supply. Active listings also jumped by 37.20%, from 25,915 to 35,555. This is great news for buyers because it means more choices and less competition for each property.
Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
With the increase in inventory and the slight decrease in sales, the Dallas market is moving towards a more balanced state. It's no longer the extreme seller's market we saw a couple of years ago. I wouldn't quite call it a buyer's market yet, but buyers certainly have more leverage than they did before. There is more room for negotiations, but sellers still have a strong position overall.
Market Trends
Let's break down the key trends influencing the Dallas housing market right now:
- Increased Inventory: More homes are available, giving buyers more options.
- Slightly Lower Prices: Median and average prices have seen a minor decrease, potentially offering some relief to buyers.
- Longer Days on Market: Homes are staying on the market longer, meaning less pressure to make quick decisions. Days to Sell rose from 75 to 86.
- Mortgage Rates: Impact of high mortgage rates is key to what’s happening.
- Jobs: May MSA jobs increased from 4,262,400 to 4,309,200, according to the latest figures published by the Texas Workforce Commission. This marks a 1.10% year-over-year (YoY) increase compared with May 2024, a net increase of 46,800 new jobs.
Impact of high mortgage rates
High mortgage rates continue to be a major factor affecting the housing market. As of July 10, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.72%, and the 15-year fixed rate is about 5.86%, according to Freddie Mac. This rate is fluctuating.
Here's a quick reference of mortgage rates:
| Mortgage Type | Rate (as of 07/10/2025) |
|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 6.72% |
| 15-Year Fixed Rate | 5.86% |
These higher rates make buying a home more expensive, impacting affordability. However, there's a silver lining. As Freddie Mac reports, despite the challenges, home purchase and refinance applications are increasing as rates show a downward trajectory.
Price Cohort Analysis
Let's take a look at how sales are doing across different price ranges. This data gives a more detailed view of what's selling and where the demand lies.
| Price Cohort | Closed Sales | YoY % | % Total Sales | Median Close Price | YoY % | Median Close Price PSF | YoY % | Active Listings | Months Inventory | Median Square Feet | Median Year Built |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 < $70k | 21 | 61.54% | 0.23% | $57,500 | -5.74% | $61.48 | -14.60% | 39 | 3.4 | 1,263 | 1983 |
| $70k < $100k | 41 | 46.43% | 0.45% | $85,000 | 1.80% | $88.94 | -16.92% | 89 | 3.5 | 994 | 1969 |
| $100k < $150k | 106 | 8.16% | 1.15% | $130,000 | 0.00% | $121.08 | -5.14% | 354 | 4.1 | 1,082 | 1965 |
| $150k < $200k | 232 | 6.42% | 2.52% | $176,000 | -2.22% | $149.68 | -7.66% | 928 | 4.6 | 1,200 | 1963 |
| $200k < $250k | 637 | 20.64% | 6.93% | $230,000 | 0.00% | $168.54 | -5.39% | 1,528 | 3.2 | 1,354 | 1984 |
| $250k < $300k | 1,122 | -1.75% | 12.21% | $276,359 | -0.23% | $178.35 | -3.73% | 3,473 | 3.7 | 1,554 | 1997 |
| $300k < $400k | 2,483 | -0.80% | 27.02% | $347,000 | 0.58% | $181.19 | -3.69% | 8,474 | 4.1 | 1,890 | 2007 |
| $400k < $500k | 1,486 | -8.44% | 16.17% | $440,000 | -1.10% | $197.37 | -1.13% | 6,305 | 5.0 | 2,250 | 2009 |
| $500k < $750k | 1,859 | -6.77% | 20.23% | $590,000 | 0.00% | $215.64 | -1.54% | 8,108 | 5.3 | 2,768 | 2012 |
| $750k < $1 mil | 621 | -7.31% | 6.76% | $839,000 | -0.12% | $246.66 | -0.21% | 2,901 | 6.1 | 3,421 | 2006 |
| $1 mil + | 581 | -5.53% | 6.32% | $1,407,500 | -0.90% | $344.32 | -3.09% | 3,356 | 7.7 | 4,278 | 2007 |
Single-Family Homes
Single-family homes are a significant part of the Dallas real estate market. The sales for this category decreased by 0.58% YoY.
Here is a summary of the Single-Family Activity:
| May 2025 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 8,728 | -0.58% |
| Dollar Volume | $4,541,925,171 | -2.74% |
| Median Close Price | $400,000 | -2.44% |
| New Listings | 14,146 | 8.65% |
| Active Listings | 32,248 | 35.61% |
| Months Inventory | 4.5 | 33.32% |
| Days to Sell | 86 | 14.67% |
| Average Price PSF | $209.64 | -2.41% |
| Median Price PSF | $194.21 | -2.62% |
| Median Square Feet | 2,129 | 0.05% |
| Close to Original List Price | 95.53 | -1.57% |
Townhomes
The townhome market saw a more significant dip in sales, decreasing by 26.65% YoY. It appears demand is a bit weaker for this property type.
Here is a summary of the Townhouse Activity:
| May 2025 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 245 | -26.65% |
| Dollar Volume | $105,492,529 | -28.56% |
| Median Close Price | $397,410 | -0.65% |
| New Listings | 585 | 29.14% |
| Active Listings | 1,515 | 60.32% |
| Months Inventory | 6.2 | 67.25% |
| Days to Sell | 93 | 16.25% |
| Average Price PSF | $223.66 | -3.64% |
| Median Price PSF | $216.24 | -4.26% |
| Median Square Feet | 1,875 | 2.74% |
| Close to Original List Price | 94.92 | -2.35% |
Condominiums
Condominium sales also experienced a substantial decrease, with a 32.29% drop YoY. This could be due to a variety of factors, including changing preferences or an oversupply in certain areas.
Here is a summary of the Condominium Activity:
| May 2025 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 216 | -32.29% |
| Dollar Volume | $101,329,699 | -29.08% |
| Median Close Price | $265,000 | -7.10% |
| New Listings | 545 | 7.07% |
| Active Listings | 1,792 | 50.59% |
| Months Inventory | 8.2 | 66.08% |
| Days to Sell | 86 | 8.86% |
| Average Price PSF | $272.23 | -5.07% |
| Median Price PSF | $235.02 | -6.04% |
| Median Square Feet | 1,141 | -0.52% |
| Close to Original List Price | 93.21 | -1.92% |
The Bottom Line
The Dallas housing market is in a state of transition. While sales and prices have seen minor decreases, the increased inventory is creating more opportunities for buyers. High mortgage rates continue to be a significant challenge, but there are signs that the market is adjusting.
For Buyers: You have more choices and potentially more room for negotiation. Take your time and shop around.
For Sellers: Be realistic about pricing and be prepared to negotiate. Make sure your home is in top condition to attract buyers.
Dallas Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026: Will Prices Go Up or Down?
If you are wondering what will happen to the Dallas housing market, here's the skinny: Experts predict a slight decrease in home values over the next year. While it won't be a major drop, this means we might see a bit more balance returning to the market.
What's Happening Right Now?
Currently, the average home value in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area is around $377,186. That's according to Zillow and represents a 2.8% decrease over the past year. Real estate is local, so here's a deeper dive into what the experts are predicting for Dallas's real estate future.
Breaking Down the Dallas Housing Market Forecast:
Zillow regularly updates its housing market forecasts, and here's what they see for Dallas:
| Forecast Period | Predicted Home Value Change |
|---|---|
| End of June 2025 (30-06-2025) | -0.6% |
| End of August 2025 (31-08-2025) | -1.5% |
| End of May 2026 (31-05-2026) | -2.2% |
This data suggests a gradual, but consistent, decline in home values in the Dallas area over the next year.
How Does Dallas Compare to Other Texas Cities?
It's essential to put the Dallas forecast into perspective. Here's a comparison with other major Texas metropolitan areas (again, using Zillow's projections):
| City | Predicted Home Value Change by May 2026 |
|---|---|
| Dallas | -2.2% |
| Houston | -1.8% |
| San Antonio | -3.2% |
| Austin | -4.2% |
| McAllen | 0.9% |
| El Paso | 0.9% |
| Killeen | -1.0% |
| Corpus Christi | -4.2% |
As you can see, Dallas is somewhere in the middle compared to other major Texas cities. Austin and Corpus Christi are predicted to see more significant declines, while McAllen and El Paso are actually expected to see modest growth.
National Trends and Expert Opinions
It's not just about Texas! What's happening across the nation? Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is optimistic about the broader housing market. He believes the situation is improving.
Yun's key predictions include:
- Existing Home Sales: Rising 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
- New Home Sales: Increasing 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
- Median Home Prices: Increasing 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
- Mortgage Rates: Averaging 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dropping to 6.1% in 2026.
This suggests that while Dallas might see a slight dip, the overall national trend is toward a more positive market.
So, Will Home Prices Drop in Dallas? Will It Crash?
I don't believe Dallas is headed for a housing market crash. The forecast points towards a moderate cool-down rather than a dramatic collapse. Several factors are still supporting the market, including population growth.
Looking Ahead to 2026
In my opinion, While it is hard to predict with certainty, based on the above data, I anticipate a gradual correction in home prices. The Dallas economy remains relatively strong & it's unlikely we'll see drastic drops. Ultimately, the Dallas housing market is dynamic, and these forecasts are just snapshots in time!
Should You Invest in the Dallas Real Estate Market?
Is Dallas a Good Place For Real Estate Investment? The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex is a booming region in Texas, consistently ranking high on lists of attractive real estate investment markets. But is it the right choice for you? Here's a detailed breakdown of key factors to consider:
City's Population Growth and Trends
- Rapid Growth: Dallas is experiencing explosive population growth. Fueled by a strong job market and affordable living costs, the metroplex is projected to add over one million residents by 2030 [Dallas Business Journal]. This translates to a constant demand for housing, benefiting both rental and sales markets for investors.
- Diverse Demographics: The DFW population is young and diverse, with a millennial-heavy demographic. This group typically fuels the rental market as they prioritize flexibility and affordability over immediate homeownership. Millennials are also known for their entrepreneurial spirit, further contributing to the area's economic dynamism.
Economy and Jobs
- Strong Job Market: Dallas boasts a diversified economy with a strong presence of healthcare, finance, and technology industries. This translates to job security and a steady influx of professionals seeking quality housing, bolstering rental markets. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area had a 6.5% job growth rate in February 2024, which was higher than the national average of 1.7%. This growth was driven by gains in manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. In 2023, the DFW metroplex added more than 154,000 new jobs, which was the second-highest number in the country after New York City.
- Corporate Relocation Hub: Major corporations are increasingly choosing Dallas for their headquarters or regional offices. This trend in corporate relocation further strengthens the job market and creates a consistent demand for housing. Companies like Toyota North America and Topgolf have recently made the move to DFW, highlighting the region's attractiveness to businesses.
Livability and Other Factors
- Business-Friendly Environment: Texas is known for its low taxes and business-friendly regulations, making it an attractive location for entrepreneurs and established companies alike. This fosters economic growth and a stable environment for real estate investment.
- Relatively Affordable Living: While home prices have risen in recent years, Dallas remains more affordable compared to other major coastal cities. The cost of living in Dallas is significantly lower than in places like San Francisco or Los Angeles. This affordability continues to attract residents and renters, creating a healthy and dynamic housing market.
- High Quality of Life: Dallas offers a high quality of life with a vibrant culture, diverse neighborhoods, and a range of entertainment options. The Dallas Arts District is a major hub for cultural attractions, while trendy neighborhoods like Deep Ellum offer a lively nightlife scene. This attracts residents and renters seeking a well-rounded lifestyle, boosting the overall demand for housing.
Rental Property Market Size and Growth
- Large and Growing Market: The Dallas rental market is vast and flourishing. With a high percentage of residents choosing to rent, investors can find a wide variety of properties with strong rental potential. The dominance of the rental market can be attributed to several factors, including the young and transient nature of the population, and the affordability advantage of renting compared to buying in a market with rising home prices.
- Favorable Rental Yields: Dallas offers competitive rental yields compared to the national average. This means investors can expect a healthy return on their investment through rental income. Yields can vary depending on property type, location, and overall market conditions, so careful research is crucial.
Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing
- Market Shift: As of May 2024, the Dallas market is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. This presents an opportunity for investors to potentially negotiate better deals and acquire properties at a more favorable price point. A buyer's market can also mean more time to conduct due diligence and research potential properties.
- Rising Interest Rates: The recent rise in interest rates can impact investor calculations. Higher interest rates can increase financing costs and potentially lower profit margins. However, Dallas' strong fundamentals and potential for appreciation, along with the possibility of a more balanced market, can still make it a worthwhile investment. Investors with strong financial reserves and long-term investment horizons may be better positioned to weather short-term fluctuations in interest rates.
Remember: Real estate investing involves inherent risks. Conduct thorough research, consider your financial goals, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By carefully weighing the factors outlined above, you can make an informed decision about whether investing in the Dallas real estate market aligns with your investment strategy.
