Dallas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast 2026

The Dallas housing market in December 2025 saw a slight increase in home sales, but prices experienced a noticeable dip, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market. This past December, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area definitely offered up some interesting trends, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center.

After a year of what felt like a non-stop sprint, December 2025 brought a bit of a breather, and in some ways, a reset to our local housing scene. Let’s take a closer look at what’s been happening and what it means for you, whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just keep an eye on your investment.

Dallas Housing Market Update: What You Need to Know

Home Sales: Picking Up the Pace, But With a Caveat

Here’s the good news first: home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area actually saw a 2.99% year-over-year increase, with 7,704 transactions in December 2025. That's a positive sign, showing that people are still actively buying homes here. Year-to-date, we’ve seen 92,055 closed listings, which is quite a bit of activity.

However, this increase in sales volume came alongside a drop in dollar volume, which went down by 1.07%. This is a key detail. It suggests that while more homes were sold, they were generally selling for less than they were a year ago.

Table 1: Month Activity 2025 (December)

Metric	December 2025	YoY %	YTD 2025	YTD YoY %
Sales	7,704	2.99%	92,055	0.41%
Dollar Volume	$3,768,059,725	-1.07%	$45,940,062,249	0.18%
Median Close Price	$375,000	-6.25%	$390,000	-2.07%
New Listings	6,873	-5.59%	149,314	8.17%
Active Listings	27,041	8.97%	32,660	26.07%
Months Inventory	3.5	8.52%	3.5	8.52%
Days to Sell*	103	5.10%	93	10.71%
Average Price PSF	$199.97	-4.53%	$207.03	-2.14%
Median Price PSF	$184.96	-4.04%	$191.24	-2.82%
Median Square Feet	2,101	-0.80%	2,093	0.77%
Close to Original List Price	92.91%	-1.55%	94.49%	-1.24%

*Days to Sell = Days on Market + Days to Close

This indicates a shift, and as someone who helps clients make big decisions, I see this as a sign that the frantic pace of bidding wars might be cooling down, which is actually a relief for many buyers who have been struggling.

Home Prices: The Correction We've Been Watching

This is where things get really interesting. The median close price took a significant dive, falling 6.25% year-over-year to $375,000. The average price also saw a dip, and the price per square foot is down too. This is a noticeable change from the rapid appreciation we’ve seen in recent years.

Why is this happening? Well, a few factors are likely at play. Interest rates, while perhaps stabilizing a bit, may still be higher than what many buyers are used to. Also, the increase in active listings gives buyers more options, reducing the pressure to overbid.

My take on this? It’s a healthy correction. It doesn’t mean prices are crashing, but it does mean the market is recalibrating. For buyers, this could be an opportunity to negotiate better deals and potentially get more house for their money. For sellers, it’s crucial to price their homes realistically to attract serious buyers.

Housing Supply: More Homes, More Choice

One of the most significant indicators in the December report is the jump in active listings. We saw an 8.97% increase year-over-year in active listings, bringing the total to 27,041. This is a significant change compared to just a year ago.

This increase in supply directly impacts the months of inventory, which rose to 3.5 months. This means if no new homes were listed, it would take approximately 3.5 months to sell all the homes currently on the market. Historically, a balanced market is considered to have 4-6 months of inventory. While we're not quite there yet, this trend is leaning towards a more buyer-friendly environment.

The fact that it’s taking longer to sell homes, with days to sell increasing by 5.10% to 103 days, further supports this idea.

Market Trends – Shifting Towards a Buyer's Advantage?

So, is it a seller's market or a buyer's market right now in Dallas? Frankly, I think it's shifting towards a more balanced market, with some buyer advantages emerging.

The increased inventory means buyers have more choices and less competition. They can take their time, do their due diligence, and negotiate more effectively. The fact that homes are selling for closer to their original list price (92.91%) indicates that sellers can't just expect sky-high offers anymore. They need to be strategic.

However, it’s important to remember that Dallas remains a desirable place to live, with a strong economy and growing population. This underlying demand will continue to support the market. We’re not looking at a scenario where prices will plummet, but rather a more sustainable and predictable growth pattern.

Spotlight on December 2025 – Residential Breakdown

Let's break down how different types of homes performed:

• Single-Family Homes: These are the backbone of many neighborhoods. Sales volume for single-family homes increased by 3.39% YoY, reaching 7,286 transactions. The median price saw a decline of 5.50% YoY to $378,000. Months of inventory for single-family homes rose to 3.4 months, and days to sell increased to 102 days. This segment mirrors the overall market trend of more sales but lower prices.
• Townhomes: The townhome market saw a decrease in sales volume by 6.45% YoY, with 232 transactions. The median price dropped significantly by 8.17% YoY to $355,000. Months of inventory for townhomes jumped to 4.7 months, and days to sell increased to 114 days. This segment appears to be experiencing more of a cooldown.
• Condominiums: Condominiums also saw a decrease in sales volume, down 3.78% YoY to 178 transactions. The median price experienced the sharpest decline among all segments, falling by 17.04% YoY to $225,650. Months of inventory for condos soared to 6.6 months, and days to sell climbed to 118 days. Condos are showing the most pronounced signs of a buyer's market.

Table 2: Price Cohort Analysis (December 2025)

Price Cohort	Closed Sales	YoY %	% Total Sales	Median Close Price	YoY %	Median Price PSF	YoY %	Active Listings	Months Inventory	Median Square Feet	Median Year Built
$0 < $70k	21	61.54%	0.27%	$59,500	-0.83%	$78.86	10.93%	39	2.7	822	1983
$70k < $100k	35	84.21%	0.45%	$90,000	5.88%	$93.53	-0.03%	116	4.3	921	1953
$100k < $150k	123	57.69%	1.60%	$130,000	0.00%	$115.38	-9.34%	354	3.5	1,096	1963
$150k < $200k	226	9.71%	2.94%	$180,000	0.00%	$148.81	-3.69%	809	3.7	1,189	1967
$200k < $250k	614	34.65%	7.98%	$230,000	0.04%	$160.27	-5.86%	1,621	3.0	1,413	1991
$250k < $300k	1,078	16.92%	14.01%	$275,000	-0.54%	$169.39	-4.79%	3,235	3.2	1,628	2003
$300k < $400k	2,197	6.81%	28.54%	$344,990	-0.66%	$175.15	-3.10%	6,771	3.3	1,981	2014
$400k < $500k	1,190	-6.74%	15.46%	$445,000	0.59%	$189.38	-1.54%	4,593	3.6	2,327	2017
$500k < $750k	1,372	-13.16%	17.83%	$585,000	-0.85%	$208.33	-1.73%	5,687	3.9	2,870	2015
$750k < $1 mil	410	-7.45%	5.33%	$840,000	0.90%	$246.17	0.49%	1,750	3.8	3,434	2008
$1 mil +	431	0.23%	5.60%	$1,400,000	-1.27%	$357.96	0.13%	2,066	4.6	4,300	2009

*Note: Not displayed when fewer than 5 sales

It’s interesting to see how different price points are behaving. The lower price segments are seeing some strong increases in sales volume, likely due to affordability. Meanwhile, the higher segments are more stable but also showing slight price adjustments.

Economic News Impacting the Housing Market

While this report focuses on housing data, it's impossible to ignore the broader economic picture. For Dallas, a strong job market has always been a huge driver of real estate demand. Any shifts in employment trends or significant economic developments can have a ripple effect.

Looking ahead, I'm always keeping an eye on consumer confidence and inflation numbers. These factors, along with interest rate policies, will continue to shape how active the Dallas housing market is and how prices move.

Dallas Housing Market Forecast 2026: Will Prices Go Up or Down?

If you are wondering what will happen to the Dallas housing market, here's the skinny: Experts predict a slight decrease in home values over the next year. While it won't be a major drop, this means we might see a bit more balance returning to the market.

What's Happening Right Now?

Currently, the average home value in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area is around $377,186. That's according to Zillow and represents a 2.8% decrease over the past year. Real estate is local, so here's a deeper dive into what the experts are predicting for Dallas's real estate future.

Breaking Down the Dallas Housing Market Forecast:

Zillow regularly updates its housing market forecasts, and here's what they see for Dallas:

Forecast Period	Predicted Home Value Change
End of June 2025 (30-06-2025)	-0.6%
End of August 2025 (31-08-2025)	-1.5%
End of May 2026 (31-05-2026)	-2.2%

This data suggests a gradual, but consistent, decline in home values in the Dallas area over the next year.

How Does Dallas Compare to Other Texas Cities?

It's essential to put the Dallas forecast into perspective. Here's a comparison with other major Texas metropolitan areas (again, using Zillow's projections):

City	Predicted Home Value Change by May 2026
Dallas	-2.2%
Houston	-1.8%
San Antonio	-3.2%
Austin	-4.2%
McAllen	0.9%
El Paso	0.9%
Killeen	-1.0%
Corpus Christi	-4.2%

As you can see, Dallas is somewhere in the middle compared to other major Texas cities. Austin and Corpus Christi are predicted to see more significant declines, while McAllen and El Paso are actually expected to see modest growth.

National Trends and Expert Opinions

It's not just about Texas! What's happening across the nation? Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is optimistic about the broader housing market. He believes the situation is improving.

Yun's key predictions include:

• Existing Home Sales: Rising 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
• New Home Sales: Increasing 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
• Median Home Prices: Increasing 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
• Mortgage Rates: Averaging 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dropping to 6.1% in 2026.

This suggests that while Dallas might see a slight dip, the overall national trend is toward a more positive market.

So, Will Home Prices Drop in Dallas? Will It Crash?

I don't believe Dallas is headed for a housing market crash. The forecast points towards a moderate cool-down rather than a dramatic collapse. Several factors are still supporting the market, including population growth.

Looking Ahead to 2026

In my opinion, While it is hard to predict with certainty, based on the above data, I anticipate a gradual correction in home prices. The Dallas economy remains relatively strong & it's unlikely we'll see drastic drops. Ultimately, the Dallas housing market is dynamic, and these forecasts are just snapshots in time!

Is Dallas a Good Place For Real Estate Investment? The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex is a booming region in Texas, consistently ranking high on lists of attractive real estate investment markets. But is it the right choice for you? Here's a detailed breakdown of key factors to consider:

City's Population Growth and Trends

• Rapid Growth: Dallas is experiencing explosive population growth. Fueled by a strong job market and affordable living costs, the metroplex is projected to add over one million residents by 2030 [Dallas Business Journal]. This translates to a constant demand for housing, benefiting both rental and sales markets for investors.
• Diverse Demographics: The DFW population is young and diverse, with a millennial-heavy demographic. This group typically fuels the rental market as they prioritize flexibility and affordability over immediate homeownership. Millennials are also known for their entrepreneurial spirit, further contributing to the area's economic dynamism.

Economy and Jobs

• Strong Job Market: Dallas boasts a diversified economy with a strong presence of healthcare, finance, and technology industries. This translates to job security and a steady influx of professionals seeking quality housing, bolstering rental markets. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area had a 6.5% job growth rate in February 2024, which was higher than the national average of 1.7%. This growth was driven by gains in manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. In 2023, the DFW metroplex added more than 154,000 new jobs, which was the second-highest number in the country after New York City.
• Corporate Relocation Hub: Major corporations are increasingly choosing Dallas for their headquarters or regional offices. This trend in corporate relocation further strengthens the job market and creates a consistent demand for housing. Companies like Toyota North America and Topgolf have recently made the move to DFW, highlighting the region's attractiveness to businesses.

Livability and Other Factors

• Business-Friendly Environment: Texas is known for its low taxes and business-friendly regulations, making it an attractive location for entrepreneurs and established companies alike. This fosters economic growth and a stable environment for real estate investment.
• Relatively Affordable Living: While home prices have risen in recent years, Dallas remains more affordable compared to other major coastal cities. The cost of living in Dallas is significantly lower than in places like San Francisco or Los Angeles. This affordability continues to attract residents and renters, creating a healthy and dynamic housing market.
• High Quality of Life: Dallas offers a high quality of life with a vibrant culture, diverse neighborhoods, and a range of entertainment options. The Dallas Arts District is a major hub for cultural attractions, while trendy neighborhoods like Deep Ellum offer a lively nightlife scene. This attracts residents and renters seeking a well-rounded lifestyle, boosting the overall demand for housing.

Rental Property Market Size and Growth

• Large and Growing Market: The Dallas rental market is vast and flourishing. With a high percentage of residents choosing to rent, investors can find a wide variety of properties with strong rental potential. The dominance of the rental market can be attributed to several factors, including the young and transient nature of the population, and the affordability advantage of renting compared to buying in a market with rising home prices.
• Favorable Rental Yields: Dallas offers competitive rental yields compared to the national average. This means investors can expect a healthy return on their investment through rental income. Yields can vary depending on property type, location, and overall market conditions, so careful research is crucial.

Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

• Market Shift: As of May 2024, the Dallas market is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. This presents an opportunity for investors to potentially negotiate better deals and acquire properties at a more favorable price point. A buyer's market can also mean more time to conduct due diligence and research potential properties.
• Rising Interest Rates: The recent rise in interest rates can impact investor calculations. Higher interest rates can increase financing costs and potentially lower profit margins. However, Dallas' strong fundamentals and potential for appreciation, along with the possibility of a more balanced market, can still make it a worthwhile investment. Investors with strong financial reserves and long-term investment horizons may be better positioned to weather short-term fluctuations in interest rates.

Remember: Real estate investing involves inherent risks. Conduct thorough research, consider your financial goals, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By carefully weighing the factors outlined above, you can make an informed decision about whether investing in the Dallas real estate market aligns with your investment strategy.