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Bottom Dwellers Waiting to Pounce

August 7, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times both published articles in the past six weeks stating that the housing market has reached a bottom.  But hold on for just a minute… It seems that not everyone believes it.

Even Yale professor Robert Shiller, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, admits to being a little bit skeptical.  In fact, he even told Fox Business last week that he's not entirely convinced that a bottom has been reached yet.

“It’s possible, but I’m not confident. This is partly seasonal,” Shiller said regarding the recent rise in home prices that have been documented over the past few months.

Only one thing is certain when it comes to economics: there is no certainty as to when an economic cycle has bottomed out until it’s already past.  This is especially true in real estate — one of the biggest driving forces behind our national economy.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Foreclosures, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Housing Market, Market Bottom, Real Estate Investing, Robert Shiller, Turnkey Investment Property

Analyze Your Market Using the MAD Method

July 30, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

There are many complicated ways to analyze the market conditions in your local area, enough to confuse and boggle the novice investor’s mind.  However, you can keep things simple by using our “MAD” method.  This means paying attention to three important factors and noting whether they’re going up or down:

M — Median housing prices

A — Active listings on the market

D — Days on the market

By paying attention to these three simple factors, you’ll get a good snapshot of the state of your local market.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Buyer's Market, Growth Markets, Housing Market, Market Analysis, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Seller's Market

National Economic Outlook (July 2012)

July 16, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Why has this economic recovery been so sluggish? In a normal recovery, job growth would be accelerating at this point, rather than dragging along at the same modest level month after month.

One culprit, off course, is the housing boom that left many homeowners with more debt than their home is worth. Another is the federal government that bailed out the big banks feeding the boom and had no money left to encourage job creation. And a third culprit is local governments that added a million jobs during the property-tax boom rather than banking the money and have now had to shed 500,000 of them.

In short, its the boom, stupid!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

On the Trail of the Housing Recovery

June 25, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One crisp fall Sunday afternoon under bright blue skies, my wife and I visited five homes up for sale. We remembered them by their street names: Big Acre, Blue Silo, Pontiac, Prairie Rose and Lamont. The lineup has a poetic ring to it, but the real music is the potential rates of return from owning them and renting them out.

This was the second weekend we went hunting. It’s been a fascinating experience so far, and what I’ve found tells me the housing recovery is not too far off, despite all the dire talk to the contrary. The investment implications are many and varied.

Being bullish on housing is a contrarian view. In a recent national survey, 37% of homeowners say they think buying a house is a “risky investment.” And 86% think prices will either stay flat or fall.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, housing recovery, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

Real Estate Cycles: Where Are We Now?

June 12, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Real estate prices, as with most financial markets, tend to follow a pattern. For the purpose of this article, we'll call this pattern “The Real Estate Cycle.” There are many theories out there about The Real Estate Cycle, but the one I like best is called “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle.”

Back in the 1930's a real estate economist named Homer Hoyt discovered that real estate prices seemed to ebb and flow on an almost perfect 18 year schedule. Hoyt's theory was later used and refined by now famed economist Fred E. Foldvary to predict the real estate crash of 2008. I'll get into more depth about “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle” shortly, but to me the important part isn't necessarily the 18 year time frame, it is understanding that the real estate market operates in a fairly predictable cycle that can be seen and taken advantage of by smart investors.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Cycles, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

National Economic Outlook (June 2012)

June 4, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

The Wall Street Journal this week said, Grim Job Report Sinks Markets. The bold headline suggests an economy in retreat. After all, it's an election year. But the May job numbers look like more of the same moderate growth we've been getting in recent months.

Overall, jobs were up 1.4 percent in the past year, right in line with the growth rates of previous months. Manufacturing jobs were up 2 percent, including an 8 percent increase in cars. Retail jobs were up just 1 percent but, significantly, jobs at furniture stores were up 2.4 percent. Jobs at restaurants and bars were up 3 percent. Conclusion: consumers are buying big-ticket items and are treating themselves to small luxuries, important signs of optimism.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?  (Part 2)

May 21, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

In Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? part 1, we stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to stable, steady long-term inflation.

But what about all this talk of hyper-inflation?

There are some doom-and-gloomers out there heralding hyper-inflation.  Hyper-inflation means you wake up in the morning and a pound of coffee is $5, but when you go back that afternoon, it’s $7 and by the following morning it’s $10.  In other words, the dollar is in free fall and it takes more and more dollars to buy the same goods and services.  It’s happened many times in other countries in just the last 50 years.  It’s ugly, especially for those who don’t know how to see it coming, how to prepare and what to do when it happens.

Now we understand the argument for hyper-inflation and it’s a good one.  So let’s take a look at why real estate right now makes so much sense.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?

May 15, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

When we interviewed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago, he told us that NOW is a great time to get into real estate – and he specifically pointed to houses.

Fellow billionaire, Warren Buffett, appeared on CNBC a couple of months ago and essentially said the same thing.  In fact, he said if there was an efficient way to do it, he'd like to buy 200,000 single family homes!

You may or may not agree with them at first blush, but when two billionaires (neither of whom are trying to sell you houses) both say the same thing, it's probably worth taking a closer look, don't you think?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Could This Be the Best Real Estate Market in 5 Years?

April 23, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

I've spoken many times on my radio show about how fear is used to move us. Well, recently I spotted a great example. Just last week I wrote about how a mortgage “expert” was predicting a “death spiral” in the housing market. That was last week. This week, the National Association of Realtors is saying that the housing market in 2012 will be the strongest in five years. February was actually a 9.2 percent increase in home sales from last year.

For most people those two things wouldn't compute, especially since the “expert” I quoted last week was predicting a 6 percent reduction in housing prices in 2012. This just all goes to show you something I've said for a long time: don't believe the doom and gloom.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Appreciating Markets, Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, US economy

Median Rent Prices on the Rise as Home Values Drop

March 19, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

While homes prices continue to be on the decline, rent prices are actually on the rise and showed a 3 percent increase from January 2011 to January 2012, as opposed to home values, which dropped 4.6 percent during that same period, according to a recent Zillow Real Estate Market Report.

“While it seems that rents are rising at the expense of home values, the opposite is true. A thriving rental market will stimulate home sales as investors snap up low-priced inventory to convert to rentals,” said chief economist for Zillow Dr. Stan Humphries in a release.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, rental market

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