Norada Real Estate Investments

U.S. Housing Market Intelligence Report (December 2009)

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Categories are graded from A thru F:

Economic Growth: D
The economy remains weak and although some indicators have improved compared to last month, they are improving from very low numbers. The third quarter GDP growth rate was revised downward to +2.8% from the preliminary report of +3.5%. Despite the downward revision, it still marks a great improvement from the second-quarter, and is the first quarterly increase in four quarters.

Job losses have eased slightly compared to last month, yet remain awful compared to history. In the last 12 months the U.S. has lost nearly 4.7 million jobs, which is equal to a decline of 3.4% of the total payroll workforce – representing one of the largest declines in 60 years. The headline unemployment rate surprisingly declined this month, reaching 10.0% in November, down from 10.2% in October.

The U-6, a broader measure of unemployment that covers part-time workers who would like full-time work and those who have given up looking for work, also decreased to 17.2% in November, down from 17.5% in October. Mass layoff events – defined as a cut of 50 or more jobs from a single employer – eased once again in October to 2,127, and marks the first year-over-year decline since August 2007, representing a 3.5% drop compared to last year.

The length of time required to find employment continues to increase, with job seekers taking over twice the normal length of time to find employment. The November CPI (all items) rose to 1.8% from one year ago, while the Core CPI (minus food & energy) remained flat at 1.7%.

Leading Indicators: C-
The U.S. leading indicators took a leg down this month after a run of steady improvements in recent months. In October, the Leading Economic Index 6-month growth rate declined to 10.2%, yet remains one of the largest year-over-year growth rates on record since 1983. Although the ECRI Leading Index, which is a gauge of future economic growth, also declined to 23% since one year ago, it still represents one of the largest growth rates since ECRI began tracking the statistic in 1968.

Stocks continued to perform well throughout November. All four major indices we track have now posted positive year-over-year results, ranging from +17% to +40%, compared to one year ago. The S&P Homebuilding Index inched up in November and has shown a year-over-year improvement for the second time since April 2006. The spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury increased slightly in November, reaching 177 bps. Since the 10-year treasury is seen as a risk free investment, the spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury displays the perceived risk of investing in corporate bonds, which has declined recently as Wall Street has become less worried about businesses failing. CEOs are now much more confident about the economy, according to the CEO Confidence Index.

Affordability: C-
Affordability improved once again this month as home prices and mortgage rates continued to decline. Our housing-cost-to-income ratio has fallen to 26.1%, which is near the lowest level since data for the index began in 1981. Homeownership costs have fallen drastically in the past year, and now owning the median-priced home is just $54 more expensive than renting the average apartment – and in many parts of the country homeownership costs much less. Due to large job losses and government furloughs, household income has fallen 4% year-over-year to $53,293. Despite the decline in incomes, the median-home-price-to-income ratio remains below the historical average, currently at 3.2. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to decline, reaching 4.78% by November month-end, while adjustable mortgage rates fell to 4.35%. The Fed’s overnight lending target rate remains at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, which is the lowest level on record. The share of ARM applications declined to 4.8% in the last week of November which is a significantly smaller share than the peak level of 35% of total applications in early 2005.

Consumer Behavior: D-
In general, consumer behavior declined compared to last month. Consumer confidence experienced a negligible uptick compared to last month, reaching 49.5, and remains very low compared to history. Consumer sentiment declined in November to 67.4 and also remains well below the historical average. The Consumer Comfort Index increased slightly in November to a monthly average of -46.4. The personal savings rate fell to 4.4%, which is down from a recent peak in May of 6.9%. The U.S. net worth increased nearly $2.7 trillion dollars in the third quarter from the prior quarter. Despite the recent quarterly improvement, the decline year-over-year of $3.4 trillion remains one of the largest on record. The Misery Index – which is based on the unemployment rate and inflation – increased this month.

Existing Home Market: C-
The change from last month in the existing home market was mixed. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), seasonally adjusted annual resale activity continued to experience large gains in October, rising to 6.1 million home sales, and improving 10% from last month. The 12-month rolling count of resale sales activity has also improved for four consecutive months. Resale sales have experienced an increase due to the $8,000 federal tax credit that was set to expire November 30th, before it got extended to Spring 2010. The national median price of an existing single-family home fell to $173,100 in October from $175,900 in September, and has fallen 7% year-over-year. The pace of decline in the Case-Shiller national index, which tracks paired sales, improved drastically in the third quarter, and marks only the second time in over three years that the index decline eased. Although the Case-Shiller national index remains down nearly 9% year-over-year, it is a sharp improvement from 19% decline reported in the first quarter. The monthly 10-market and 20-market Case-Shiller indices also remain down year-over-year, yet have experienced month-over-month improvements since May, and the annual declines have eased in recent months. The number of unsold homes declined again in October, and fell to 7.0 months of supply, reaching very close to the historical average. In October, pending home sales volume improved again, increasing almost 32% year-over-year. As of the third quarter, 23% of all homes with a mortgage throughout the U.S. were worth less than the original value of the mortgage.

New Home Market: D
The new home market was mixed this month. Builder confidence declined in December as the Housing Market Index fell to 16. The seasonally adjusted new home sales volume increased in October compared to September, reaching 430,000 transactions – up 5.1% year-over-year. The median single-family new home price increased to $212,200 in October, but has declined 0.5% year-over-year. The inventory of unsold homes fell to 6.7 months, down from 7.4 months last month, and is a large improvement compared to 12.5 months of supply in the beginning of 2009.

Repairs and Remodeling: D-
The conditions for repairs and remodeling remain poor this month. Homeowner improvement activity worsened in the third quarter, representing a decline of 9.4% year-over-year. The Remodeling Market Index improved to 39.8 in the third quarter, and has rapidly rebounded after bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2008. Despite the recent increases, the index remains well below the historical average of 50. The decline in residential construction eased slightly in October, although it has fallen 24% year-over-year.

Housing Supply: F
Housing supply worsened this month. Total completions improved 9% compared to the prior month, reaching 810,000, although they have fallen 25% year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted new home starts increased this month, as single-family starts rose 2% and multifamily starts improved 67% compared to last month. Seasonally adjusted total permits also increased in November to 584,000 units. Total permit activity has fallen 7% year-over-year and over 74% since its most recent peak in September 2005. Although vacancy rates in the U.S. have improved in recent quarters, the majority of the U.S. remains oversupplied compared to history. Just four states in the U.S. are currently undersupplied – Texas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Iowa.

* US Building Market Intelligence™ report is produced by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

10 Cities Where Real Estate Is Surging Again

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Housing prices have taken a beating over the last few years all around the country.  However, a few major cities have finally hit bottom and are on their way back.

The question that some are asking now is whether the rebound is temporary, or a clear sign that those markets have come back from their trough.

Here are ten major cities that are clearly on the mend:

City / Market Rebound off
the Bottom		 2009
Bottom		 Y/Y Change (Aug '09) Monthly Change (Aug '09)
Minneapolis, Minnesota 12.94% April – 14% 3.2%
San Francisco, California 12.5% March – 13% 2.8%
Cleveland, Ohio 10.9% March – 3% 0.5%
Denver, Colorado 8.19% February – 2% 1.0%
Dallas, Texas 8.10% February – 1% 0.2%
Washington, D. C. 7.79% March – 8% 1.4%
Boston, Massachusetts 6.94% March – 4% 1.0%
Chicago, Illinois 6.75% April – 13% 2.7%
San Diego, California 6.17% April – 9% 1.6%
Atlanta, Georgia 5.82% March 11% 1.0%

A large percentage of the sales activity today is coming from first-time home buyers and investors.  In some markets this activity makes up over 75% of the total sales volume.

Remember that job growth is the primary driver of housing demand.  And job growth translates into more people with incomes who can buy or rent homes.  These markets have not been affected as much by the high unemployment we see in other parts of the country.

If you are a sitting on the sidelines waiting for a bottom then this may be the nudge you need to get up and start investing.  There are a large number of prudent available today with historically low interest rates to boot!

The Housing Bust… The Final Chapter

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The mortgage crisis has been the main shark in the water over the past couple of years. You should know where that shark is and whether or not it is hungry. The chart below shows you those ferocious fish may still have an appetite:

Housing-Bust-1

It shows you that we are past the viscous subprime crisis, when that shark chewed through the balance sheets of a number of banks and financial institutions, in some cases devouring them whole. However, it is not yet safe to get back in the water:

There are these other slices of mortgages that are not quite as risky as subprime that reset in the next couple of years. Years 2010 and 2011 face big resets in so-called Alt-A and Option ARM loans. What this means is more write-downs and more losses for banks and others who hold these mortgages.

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The Housing Market is About to Get Even More Oversupplied

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While both the media and stock investors believe that housing has bottomed, they are unaware of the massive supply of homes that are already in the foreclosure process that will certainly drive home prices down even further when they are sold. We have been projecting a “W” shaped recovery for some time, and we are becoming even more convinced that we are right. The shape of the second leg down is almost completely dependent on the level of government intervention that will take place.

For a number of reasons, banks have not been aggressively taking title to homes and selling them, which has resulted in very few distressed sales in comparison to the actual level of distress in the market. This delay in REO sales, along with historically low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit, has helped to stabilize the housing market – temporarily.

It is very clear that price stabilization is temporary unless something is done. Here are some facts to help project what housing will be like in 2010:

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What Housing Bust?

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During the past three years, home prices grew in the beer-guzzling heartland and fell in the wine-sipping coastal states.

If you're a beef-eating, beer-guzzling, pick-up driving resident of heartland America, there's a good chance you escaped the housing bust. But pesto-chomping, chardonnay-sipping, hybrid-driving city-slickers were probably out of luck.

Over the past three years, 23 states recorded home price gains in the majority of their metro areas, according to analytics firm Fiserv. And where were most of those gainers? In much of the so-called heartland: the South, the Plains and most of the non-coastal West.

Meanwhile, the 16 states that posted declines were led by much of New England and the Northeast, plus California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

Most telling, however, was that the 12 remaining states — those that posted mixed results in their metro areas — were found in every region of America.

And even in the mixed results states, such as New York, the bust hit "blue" metro areas, like New York City and Long Island (both down 21.7%), and spared "red" upstate cities. Buffalo prices grew 8.3%, Syracuse climbed 8.4%, Utica gained 10.4%, and Binghamton was up 17.7%.

The states where metro markets rose generally share two characteristics, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: low prices and open space.

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Foreclosures Hit All-Time High!

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Just when you thought foreclosure filings were stabilizing, they hit another all-time high with almost 938,000 homeowners filing in the third quarter, according to Realty Trac.  This is a 5% increase from the previous quarter.

Six states account for 62% of the nations foreclosures:
California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation's total foreclosure activity in the third quarter.  That accounts for 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

Although California's foreclosure activity decreased almost 2% from Q2 there were still 250,054 properties that received a foreclosure filing.   That was a 10% drop in default notices but a 4% increase in scheduled auctions and 12% increase in REOs.

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Is the US Currency Dying?

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I have avoided this subject since it is extremely comprehensive and difficult to comprehend. But out of popular request, by you my readers, I have decided to tackle the subject of US currency valuations, its impacts, and related investor fear in this article.

The U.S. dollar is the preferred world reserve currency and the most powerful instrument both domestic and international. This article explores how you, the , are impacted from its valuation and what we should be doing as a nation to best manage it.

Fear is certainly not unwarranted given that a swing in dollar valuation against foreign currencies impacts the price of almost all U.S. goods. In particular, investors of U.S. Real Estate and U.S. Equities watch our currency very closely to monitor the future health of our economy. When the dollar is highly valued compared to other currencies the US consumer reaps lower domestic prices for all imported consumer goods and materials (everything from toys to building materials). Of course a highly valued U.S. dollar makes all of our exported goods more expensive to international consumers.

In contrast a weak US dollar makes imported consumer goods more expensive and exported goods less expensive to the rest of the world. Large swings create havoc to our economy and make monetary policy difficult at best. Ultimately, ourselves and the international community strive for a predictable and stable U.S. currency. This allows us to regulate our monetary policy more effectively and stabilizes the prices of goods and services. From time to time we have seen our international suppliers/buyers manipulate our currency in hopes of getting more out of the U.S. consumer, however given our recent economic woes, most of the international community is trying to create dollar stability.

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Flipping Homes No Longer Profitable, Investors Pursue A Long-Term Strategy

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Homeowners are facing an economic crunch from the housing crash, but investors often face even more severe repercussions. More than 1 in 3 foreclosures are of investment properties, and should the foreclosure epidemic worsen as forecast, that number is expected to rise as more investors walk away from mortgages.

During the real estate boom investors and speculators bought homes, fixed them up and many sold within months. But the real estate crash prevents them from doing just that. Living in a home intended to be an has become the answer for some investors, while others select to rent the property. More than 240,000 homes sit vacant nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A key strategy of buying a home to flip has gone by the wayside as more and more purchase properties for the long term. Just when and how long it will take to reap profits from their investments is an uncertainty with some economists saying that it could take more than 10 years for the market to become healthy enough to make a good profit.

In his book “The Millionaire Real Estate Investor”, Gary Keller, founder of Keller Williams Realty International, keeps a basic theme: “Buy real estate right, pay it down and pay it off.” The ultimate goal should be to own lots of real estate free and clear for maximum cash flow. That mantra is attracting millions of investors and wannabe investors back into the depressed housing market to invest.

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The U.S. Housing Market's False Dawn

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Is the U.S. housing market truly at a turning point, as seem to increasingly believe? Or is this actually a false dawn, meaning that there are problems ahead for those who turned bullish too soon?

New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case-Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

Housing stocks are certainly acting as if a recovery must be on the way. Pulte Homes Inc. has more than doubled from its low. Toll Brothers Inc. is up around 70% from its bottom. D.R. Horton Enterprises is up almost four times from its bottom. Lennar Corp. is up about 4.5 times from its low. Finally, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. is up almost tenfold from its low after a flirtation with bankruptcy. Yet all of these companies are still racking up quarterly losses, according to their most recent earnings reports.

In terms of house prices, it would seem unlikely that a bear market bottom has been reached. Yes, the average house price is now back down around its long-term average of about 3.2 times average earnings, or only a little above it. But history suggests that markets don’t bottom at their average valuation: In fact, after such a huge excess to the upside, they overshoot on the downside.

[Read more…]

The Second Wave of Mortgage Defaults Ahead

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I'm sure you know by now that it was the first wave of defaults in “subprime” mortgages that helped spark today's economic meltdown.  What you might NOT know is that there's a whole second wave of mortgages in the pipeline that are just as toxic and just as large as the first.  This second wave may be just as far reaching.

You can see that the first peak in subprime loan “resets” arrived smack dab in the middle of 2008. And many billions in bank write-downs, along with trillions of dollars in market losses, immediately followed.

This second wave of toxic property loans, made up of so-called “option ARM” or “Alt-A” loans, won't hit peak resets until 2011.

What are these toxic loans? They are the fancy mortgages snapped up by middle Americans to buy homes nobody imagined would be worth only a fraction of their selling price  just two years later.

And just like in the subprime wave, these loan contracts also carry a “reset” risk in the fine print, when already high monthly mortgage payments could as much as double — right at the height of the second biggest market meltdown since the Great Depression.

Millions of additional consumers will freeze up as their finances go over a cliff.  More bank losses will drag down even more so-called “blue chip” retirement portfolios, and the impact of the consumer bust will get “multiplied” yet again. Millions of additional Americans could lose everything.

Will this present us with new ?  Very likely.  In addition to the large number of foreclosures and bank REOs, most real estate markets around the country will continue to offer investors with low-priced real estate due to an ongoing buyer's market sustained by excess inventory.

What do you think the upcoming second wave of mortgage “resets” will bring us?

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