National Economic Outlook (September 2013)

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The rate of annual job growth in August, 1.7 percent, was basically the same as in previous months. We had better get used to the idea that this is the new normal, because there probably won't be much help from the lagging government and construction sectors.

Budget difficulties will prevent any meaningful increase in government spending, even though local and state revenues are now in better shape. The recession revealed the extent of unfunded pension liabilities for public employees, which will absorb any extra dollars.

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National Economic Outlook (August 2013)

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The pace of job growth in July was unchanged from the 1.7 percent annual rate of previous months, but the details suggest an economy that will do modestly better for the rest of the year. Most importantly, jobs in business services were up 3.5 percent from last year.

Business services is one of the largest sectors of the economy, on a par with health care and government, and bigger than retail or manufacturing. Earlier this year it was growing at a 3 percent rate, in the last few months around 3.5 percent; it seems only a small increase but it means that businesses are expanding again.

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National Economic Outlook (June 2013)

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The economic recession only lasted a year, but there wasn't a recovery for homes because prices had climbed much too high and builders had built way too many of them. Prices had to fall, not just back to a “normal” level, but to an even lower level so that the large inventory of excess homes could be moved – a sort of clearance sale. We're not yet done with that sale – see the large number of mortgages still delinquent – but enough has been cleared out so that prices can drift up to a more normal level.

 

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Real Estate Investment Outlook for 2013

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For a good number of real estate professionals, 2012 wasn't a great year. We were still on a downward spiral towards the bottom of the real estate market. This wasn't exciting news for real estate investors looking to make profitable deals investing in real estate. But as we move deeper into 2013, it's becoming abundantly clear that the tide is turning.

In previous years, buyers were getting used to having the upper hand. The market was like a poker game with the buyer being in possession of all the chips. Sellers are now in a position to reclaim not only the chips, but the pot as well. We are moving into a seller's market where the seller, not the buyer, will have the unfair advantage. Opportunity is knocking and it's been a long time since investors were able to capitalize on current and future market conditions.

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National Economic Outlook (March 2013)

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The budget shenanigans in Washington so far haven't had an effect on the recovery, but an extended period of lower government spending and job cuts will quickly lead to economic stagnation.

The economy is a self-reinforcing mechanism, a small dip in growth will be followed by further declines, even if the first dip was meant to be temporary. With jobs growing at a very modest rate, it won't take much to bring growth to a halt.

Aside from the very real possibility of a government-induced slowdown, the economy is doing well – in the modern sense that it's growing modestly. The number of jobs in February was 1.5 percent higher than last year, a small improvement over recent months, and unemployment fell to 7.7 percent. As usual, the heavy lifting was done by the health care sector – jobs up 2.1 percent – and business services, where jobs increased 2.8 percent. Government jobs were essentially flat, and retail jobs were up 1.8 percent.

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