Real Estate Market Archives

US Housing Market 2023: Trends and Insights

May 18, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

The real estate housing market is a complex and dynamic industry that is constantly evolving. While the future is unpredictable, current trends can provide insights into what we can expect in the housing market in 2023. In this article, we will discuss the key trends that are expected to shape the housing market in the coming years, along with the potential impact of each trend. The housing market is predicted to slow down further in 2023. For sellers, this could be terrible news, but for buyers, it's great.

Yet, there is still the problem of sky-high mortgage rates. The bright side is that if buyers hold off, the supply of homes will increase, putting further pressure on sellers to decrease prices. This would constitute a long-overdue course correction for the housing market. Mortgage rates are skyrocketing. Home sales are declining. Supply is improving. We are witnessing a sharp slowdown in the housing market due to higher mortgage rates.

Trend #1: Increasing Demand for Affordable Housing

The demand for affordable housing is one of the most pressing issues in the housing market. The rise in housing prices, combined with stagnant wages, has made it difficult for many individuals and families to find safe and secure housing. In 2023, it is expected that access to affordable housing will continue to be a challenge. Innovative solutions will be necessary to address this issue and provide affordable housing options for those in need.

Trend #2: Shift toward Suburban and Rural Areas

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many people to reevaluate their living arrangements, with larger homes and more space becoming increasingly important. This shift in priorities could result in a greater demand for housing in suburban and rural areas, leading to higher prices. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, especially as remote work becomes more prevalent.

Trend #3: Rising Home Prices

Despite the economic impact of the pandemic, housing prices have continued to rise due to limited supply and high demand. While this is good news for homeowners, it could make it more difficult for some individuals to enter the housing market. The trend toward rising home prices is expected to persist in 2023, particularly in urban areas where the supply is limited.

Trend #4: Stricter Mortgage Standards

As the economy recovers and interest rates rise, mortgage lenders may become more cautious about who they lend to. This could make it more difficult for some individuals to qualify for a mortgage and realize their dream of homeownership. Stricter mortgage standards are a potential barrier for those seeking to enter the housing market.

Trend #5: Increased Investment in Technology

The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of technology in the real estate industry, with virtual home tours and digital transactions becoming more common. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, with technological investments helping to streamline the home buying and selling process. Technology could also play a role in addressing the challenge of affordable housing, with innovations such as modular homes and 3D printing.

Hence, the housing market in 2023 will be shaped by economic, social, and technological factors. While predicting the future is never easy, understanding these trends can help individuals and policymakers make informed decisions about the housing market. It is important to address the challenge of affordable housing, as well as the potential barriers to homeownership such as rising home prices and stricter mortgage standards. Technological innovations are also likely to play a critical role in shaping the housing market in the coming years. By keeping these trends in mind, stakeholders can work towards creating a housing market that is equitable, accessible, and sustainable for all.

US Housing Market Update for April 2023

Key Highlights from Recent Data:

Median prices have experienced a decline of 1.7% compared to the previous year, with the current median price at $388,000, down from $395,500.
The average days on the market have reduced to 22, indicating a faster pace of home sales compared to the previous figure of 29 days.
First-time buyers have slightly increased their presence in the market, accounting for 29% of all home sales, up from 28%.
All-cash buyers have also seen a marginal increase, comprising 28% of the market compared to the previous figure of 27%.
Investor share remains steady at 17%, suggesting that investors are maintaining their position despite the slump in overall sales.
Existing-Home Sales Dropped by 3.4% in April.

April saw a decline in existing-home sales across the United States, with all major regions experiencing both month-over-month and year-over-year decreases. Factors such as job gains, limited inventory, and fluctuating mortgage rates have contributed to the fluctuating housing demand. While the housing market remains above recent cyclical lows, the market's ups and downs reflect the dynamic environment in which it operates.

Inventory levels showed a slight increase, providing some relief, but overall supply remains limited. Price trends varied across regions, with some experiencing gains while others saw declines. The market activity showed signs of resilience, with properties spending fewer days on the market compared to the previous month.

First-time buyers' share of sales increased slightly, although it remained low compared to previous years. Cash sales and distressed sales remained stable, and the overall market showed signs of stability despite the decline in sales. The regional breakdown highlighted variations in market performance across different parts of the country.

Home Sales Decline Amid Market Factors

In April, existing-home sales experienced a decline, marking a decrease in both month-over-month and year-over-year sales across all major regions in the United States. The National Association of REALTORS® reported that total existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, slid 3.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million in April.

Year-over-year, sales slumped by 23.2%. Despite the decline, the housing market continues to be influenced by factors such as job gains, limited inventory, and fluctuating mortgage rates, creating a push-pull effect on housing demand.

The combination of job gains, limited inventory, and fluctuating mortgage rates have contributed to the volatility in existing-home sales. While the housing market is experiencing ups and downs, it remains above recent cyclical lows. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun acknowledges the dynamic environment and its impact on housing demand.

Inventory Levels and Supply

Total housing inventory at the end of April showed a slight increase of 7.2% from March and 1.0% from the previous year, reaching 1.04 million units. Unsold inventory represents a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, which is higher compared to March's 2.6 months and April 2022's 2.2 months. The rise in inventory levels provides some relief, but supply remains limited overall.

Home Price Trends and Regional Variations

In April, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $388,800, indicating a decline of 1.7% from the previous year. While prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest regions, they retreated in the South and West. Approximately half of the country is experiencing price gains, with multiple-offer situations returning in the spring buying season, particularly in the more expensive West region. Distressed and forced property sales have become virtually nonexistent.

Market Activity and First-Time Buyers

Properties spent an average of 22 days on the market in April, down from 29 days in March but higher than the 17 days in April 2022. Notably, 73% of homes sold within a month of listing. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales in April, showing a slight increase from both March 2023 and April 2022. However, NAR's 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest recorded since NAR began tracking the data.

Cash Sales and Distressed Sales

All-cash sales represented 28% of transactions in April, a slight increase from both March and the previous year. These cash transactions often involve individual investors or second-home buyers, who purchased 17% of homes in April, remaining consistent with the previous month and year. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, accounted for only 1% of sales in April, showing no change compared to the previous month and year.

Single-Family vs. Condo/Co-op Sales

In April, single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.85 million, down 3.5% from March and 22.4% from the previous year. The median existing single-family home price in April was $393,300, indicating a 2.1% decrease from April 2022. Existing condominium and co-op sales recorded a rate of 430,000 units, reflecting a decline of 2.3% from March and 29.5% from the previous year.

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in different regions of the country also experienced declines in April. Here's a breakdown of the regional sales figures:

Northeast: Existing-home sales in the Northeast region decreased by 1.9% from March to an annual rate of 510,000 in April, down 23.9% from April 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $422,700, representing a 2.8% increase compared to the previous year.
Midwest: Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined by 1.9% from the previous month to an annual rate of 1.02 million in April, marking a 21.5% drop from the previous year. The median price in the Midwest was $287,300, indicating a 1.8% increase from April 2022.
South: The South region experienced a 3.4% decrease in existing-home sales from March to an annual rate of 1.98 million in April, representing a 20.2% decline from the previous year. The median price in the South was $357,900, showing a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to April 2022.
West: Existing-home sales in the West region slipped by 6.1% from the previous month to an annual rate of 770,000 in April, down 31.3% from the previous year. The median price in the West was $578,200, indicating an 8.0% decrease from April 2022.

Real Estate Housing Market Trends — Source: N.A.R.

New Home Sales Rise for the Fourth Month in a Row

new home sales trends — Source: The U.S. Census Bureau

The housing market in the United States has been experiencing positive trends as new home sales continue to rise for the fourth consecutive month. With mortgage rates easing and a shortage of existing homes for sale, buyers are turning to new construction as an attractive alternative.

The latest joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau reveals the recent surge in new home sales, along with other noteworthy developments in the housing market. This article explores why tech hubs are seeing home prices cool faster than other areas and analyze the key factors contributing to the overall stability of the housing market.

New Home Sales Show Encouraging Growth:

In March, sales of newly constructed homes increased by 9.6% compared to the previous month. This upward trajectory in sales suggests a potential stabilization of the housing market. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new single-family houses sold reached 683,000, surpassing the revised figure of 623,000 in February. Although sales were down by 3.4% from the previous year, the consecutive monthly growth indicates a positive shift in buyer behavior and confidence.

Factors Driving New Home Sales:

Several factors have contributed to the rise in new home sales. One significant factor is the easing of mortgage rates. In February, rates experienced a surge, reaching as high as 6.73%. However, as uncertainty spread through the financial industry due to mid-March bank failures, rates fell throughout the rest of the month. This decline in mortgage rates led to an increase in mortgage applications, enabling more buyers to enter the market and invest in new homes.

Tech Hubs and Cooling Home Prices:

One interesting trend observed in the housing market is the cooling of home prices in tech hubs compared to other areas. While prices of new homes rose from February to March overall, tech hub regions experienced a faster cooling effect. This phenomenon can be attributed to buyers adjusting to elevated mortgage rate levels and the subsequent downward adjustment of home prices in those areas. Buyers who were initially hesitant due to high mortgage rates are now taking advantage of the price adjustments, leading to increased demand for new homes.

Inventory and Affordability:

Despite the rise in new home sales, inventory levels saw a slight decrease in March. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale dropped to 432,000, down from 436,000 in February. This reduction indicates a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales pace, compared to 8.2 months in the previous month. While the decrease in inventory may present challenges for buyers, it also highlights the demand for new homes in the market.

Benefits for Homebuyers in 2023's Housing Market

There are a few potential benefits for homebuyers in the current real estate housing market:

More choices: While the supply of homes on the market is still relatively low, it has increased slightly in recent months. This means that potential homebuyers may have more options to choose from when looking for a home. The number of new homes available on the market also increased in February, which means that potential homebuyers have more options to choose from.
Slower price growth: Although home prices are still rising, the pace of growth has slowed down in some areas. This could make it easier for homebuyers to afford a home in certain markets.
Easier negotiations: In a slower housing market, sellers may be more willing to negotiate on the price of their home or other terms of the sale. This could give homebuyers more bargaining power and help them get a better deal on a home.
Lower prices: While the median price of a new home rose slightly from a year ago, the increased inventory could lead to greater competition among sellers, potentially driving down prices.
Leading indicator: New home sales are considered a leading indicator for the housing market, meaning that an increase in new home sales could signal a positive trend for the housing market overall. This could be good news for potential homebuyers who may be hesitant to enter the market during a downturn.

In conclusion, the housing market in 2023 is predicted to slow down further, with rising mortgage rates, increasing demand for affordable housing, a shift towards suburban and rural areas, rising home prices, and stricter mortgage standards. Despite economic uncertainty, technological advancements such as virtual home tours and digital transactions are expected to streamline the home buying and selling process.

In April, existing-home sales experienced a decline across the United States, affecting all major regions and resulting in both month-over-month and year-over-year decreases. This can be attributed to factors such as limited inventory, fluctuating mortgage rates, and varying job gains. While the market remains above recent lows, its volatility reflects the dynamic environment in which it operates.

Inventory levels showed a slight increase, providing some relief, but overall supply remains limited. Price trends varied across regions, with some areas seeing gains while others experienced declines. Despite the decline in sales, the market showed signs of stability, with properties spending less time on the market compared to the previous month.

The share of first-time buyers increased slightly, although it remained low compared to previous years. Cash sales and distressed sales remained stable, indicating overall market stability. It is important to note that market performance varied across different regions, emphasizing the need for localized analysis and understanding of unique market factors.

Even with rising mortgage rates and higher prices, the housing market cannot crash due to low supply and increasing demand as more millennials are projected to buy houses in the years to come. Now millennials make up the largest share of homebuyers in the US. Millennials are the largest generation in history, and they are already in their mid-thirties, approaching their prime home-buying years.

They were delayed in purchasing a home, but are now back in full force. Thus, we have two, four, or five years of millennial homeownership. However, as the housing market continues to evolve, staying informed and adaptable is crucial for buyers, sellers, and industry professionals alike.

Sources:

https://www.realtor.com/research/
https://www.zillow.com/home-values/
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/todays-rates/
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/housing-affordability-index

Real Estate Housing Market Predictions & Forecast 2023

May 15, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Experts are divided into the housing market predictions and forecasts for 2023. While there is no consensus on whether the historically tight housing market will loosen or not, the market has cooled significantly from its previous highs. Despite predictions of a housing market crash comparable to the Great Depression due to the pandemic, the market has remained stable. However, home prices are forecasted to continue rising at a slower rate, while home sales may continue to decline due to supply-demand imbalances.

While higher mortgage rates and recession fears have cooled the market from its spring highs, other factors may impact the market's pace and favorability for buyers or sellers. The market is shifting away from sellers to more balanced conditions. Buyers remain interested, keeping the market somewhat competitive, especially for attractive, well-priced homes.

The positive outlook is that most real estate firms do not predict a financial or foreclosure crisis on the scale of 2008, but they do expect housing fundamentals to return to the mean. Some of that moderation will be brought about by growing salaries, while some will be brought about by declining home prices. The housing market won't be overvalued after this correction is over.

ALSO READ: Real Estate Housing Market Trends for February 2023

The direction of mortgage rates in 2023 is likely to affect the decline in home values. Interest rates have a significant impact on the real estate market, as they influence mortgage payments, demand for housing, and housing prices. While home prices are still on the rise, the rate of growth has slowed down from earlier in the year. Despite this, buyers remain interested in the market, resulting in a somewhat competitive market, especially for well-priced and attractive homes.

However, there are still many concerns regarding the housing market, particularly regarding the shortage of supply and rising interest rates. The shortage of supply has been one of the main drivers of home price growth, but rising interest rates are discouraging potential sellers and new construction. This means that there is little hope for improvement in the housing supply and a sustainable housing market that would result from an increase in inventory.

The significant increase in mortgage rates since last year has made the already expensive housing market even less affordable. Home prices experienced a meteoric rise during the pandemic due to factors such as high demand, low supply, and record-low mortgage rates. However, the sudden increase in mortgage rates has dampened the market's growth and affordability, making it difficult for buyers to enter the market. Let us continue to find out about the latest housing market predictions and forecasts.

Real Estate Housing Market Predictions By Experts for 2023

There is little consensus among economists, mortgage firms, banks, and real estate firms regarding whether the historically tight U.S. housing market will reverse course in 2023. It appears that the US housing market is likely to experience a decline in home prices in 2023. However, the severity of this decline will likely depend on various factors, including the extent of the housing supply shortage, economic conditions, and location-specific factors. Let's take a detailed look at some of the notable predictions made by top companies in the industry.

Company	Optimistic/Pessimistic Market Predictions
Fannie Mae	Pessimistic
National Association of Realtors (NAR)	Optimistic
Goldman Sachs	Pessimistic
Wells Fargo	Pessimistic
KPMG LLP	Pessimistic
Freddie Mac	Mixed
CoreLogic	Mixed

According to Fannie Mae, it appears that the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle in 2023. The organization expects both new and existing home sales volumes to drop by 5.4% and 19.2%, respectively, after significant drops in 2022. This will likely occur due to high mortgage rates, which Fannie Mae believes will continue to deter potential buyers. Furthermore, the number of available homes on the market will remain low, as most homeowners with low fixed mortgage rates will not want to trade them in for higher rates, thereby limiting inventory levels.

Fannie Mae also expects home prices to continue to decline in 2023 and 2024. Following a 2.5% drop in the second half of 2022, the organization predicts a further 4.2% decline in 2023 and a 2.3% decline in 2024. However, this correction is considered mild, as national home prices are still projected to be up 29% by the end of 2024 compared to March 2020 levels. It is important to note that regional variations may occur in price movements despite national price trends.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home prices are expected to increase by 1.2% this year. This projection indicates a continued upward trend in the housing market. Additionally, NAR predicts that mortgage rates will plateau at about 6.4%.

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have both recently made forecasts for the US housing market in 2023, and their predictions suggest a decline in home prices. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a more significant drop, with a projected decline of 7.6% from the peak, while Wells Fargo predicts a more modest decrease of 5.5%. Both banks attribute the anticipated drop to the current housing supply shortage, which has been a persistent issue in recent years.

It's worth noting that Wells Fargo also highlighted that there may be significant discrepancies in the extent of the price fluctuations depending on the desirability of a particular location. This could mean that some areas may experience larger price drops than others, depending on factors such as local economic conditions, population growth, and housing supply and demand dynamics.

The accounting firm KPMG LLP's forecast for the housing market in 2023 looks bleak. Existing home sales are predicted to drop by 23% from 2022, which would be a decrease not seen since 2007. The drop is expected to be driven by single-family home sales due to the limited supply and high prices. However, condos are predicted to fare better.

The number of purchase applications has dropped by over 40% from a year ago in February. Buyers are betting on rate cuts by the Fed as their mortgages reset in 2024, and they are using adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get into the few homes that are listed. Despite the spike in rates and erosion in affordability, millennials still make up over half of the purchase applications.

The share of those who have locked into ultra-low rates or paid off their mortgages has surged. Those homeowners have a natural hedge against escalating shelter costs and some have chosen to rent out their homes to cash in on the demand for single-family rentals, further constraining the stock of homes.

Home prices are predicted to fall between 7% and 10% depending on the measure, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index expected to drop another 8% in 2023, bringing prices to the still elevated levels of late 2021. Despite the rise in demand for rentals, rents have fallen more rapidly than home prices, and the Fed is counting on those declines to cool inflation. However, the tight labor market may place a floor under how much rents fall in the hottest markets, hence the Fed's focus on the labor market.

According to Freddie Mac's first-quarter housing outlook pulse survey of 2023, market confidence in the housing market has rebounded somewhat quarter-over-quarter, despite payment concerns remaining unchanged among both homeowners and renters. Specifically, 43% of respondents are confident the housing market will remain strong over the next year, up 9 percentage points from last quarter but down 15 percentage points compared to last year.

However, concerns about housing affordability persist, with 59% of renters and 28% of homeowners spending more than 30% of their monthly income on housing. Additionally, over half of the respondents (54%) expressed concerns about making housing payments, with 70% of renters and 44% of homeowners feeling this way.

In terms of market activity, only 18% of respondents indicated they are likely to buy a home in the next six months, while 14% of homeowners say they are likely to sell in the same period. About 16% of homeowners plan to refinance in the next six months. Overall, while market confidence has rebounded somewhat, concerns over housing affordability and payment continue to persist.

According to the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report, national home prices increased year-over-year by 5.5% in January 2023 compared with January 2022. However, on a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% in January 2023 compared with December 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast suggests that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from January 2023 to February 2023 and increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.1% from January 2023 to January 2024.

While some states like Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Washington, D.C. saw annual declines in home prices, other states like Florida, Maine, and South Carolina saw significant year-over-year increases. Miami, in particular, experienced the highest increase in home prices at 17.3% year over year.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) predicts that Bellingham, WA is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months, along with other cities like Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL; Salem, OR; and Tacoma-Lakewood, WA.

Overall, while their national housing market may experience a slight decline in the short term, the forecast suggests that it will pick up again in the long run, with some states and cities continuing to experience significant growth. However, some areas face a risk of a decline in home prices in the next year.

Freddie Mac's Economic & Housing Research Group in its latest forecast to date has predicted mortgage rates dropping from an average of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The government-sponsored enterprise forecasts that home sales activity will bottom at around 5 million units at the end of 2023. Falling from 7 million to 5 million would be a decline of about 30% and put the contraction in home sales in line with other historical periods when interest rates increased.

As housing market activity continues to contract, Freddie Mac expects that it will lead to a continued increase in the months’ supply of homes available for sale from historically low levels last year. The loosening of the once incredibly tight for-sale inventory removes the intense upward pressure on home prices of the past two years. While fewer sales are increasing the months’ supply, that is partially offset by fewer new listings as high mortgage rates disincentivize existing homeowners from moving up or downsizing.

They expect house prices to decline modestly, but the downside risks are elevated. As the labor market cools off, housing demand will remain weak in 2023, potentially resulting in declines in prices next year. However, home price forecast uncertainty is wide due to interest rate volatility and the potential of a recession on the horizon.

Home purchase mortgage applications point to a continued contraction in home sales activity. Given the house price and home sales forecast, they estimate home purchase mortgage originations to be $1.9 trillion in 2022, slowing to $1.6 trillion in 2023. With mortgage rates expected to remain elevated, they forecast refinance activity to slow with refinance originations declining from $2.8 trillion in 2021 to $747 billion in 2022 and $310 billion in 2023. Overall, their forecast is that total originations will decline from the high of $4.8 trillion in 2021 to $2.6 trillion in 2022 and $1.9 trillion in 2023.

Housing Market Predictions For the Next Few Years

The housing market is far better than it was a decade ago. During the two years of the pandemic, the housing industry experienced a boom, with the most significant annual increase in single-family house values and rentals, historically low foreclosure rates, and the highest number of home sales in 15 years, totaling 6.9 million for the entire year of 2021. Over those two years, national home prices increased by around 33%.

The market was driven by record-low borrowing rates in 2020 and 2021, as well as a supply constraint due to underbuilding. The enormous demand from first-time buyers is almost as important as the limited new supply. The housing market is also being driven by exceptionally favorable age demographic trends. But soaring interest rates are making mortgage payments more expensive since last year and cooling the hot real estate market.

The overarching concern is whether or not the housing market will crash, and if so, when. The simple answer is that it will not crash anytime soon and we certainly don't see a housing market crash coming in 2023. Rising rates are cooling the market as some expected but the prices are still rising at a slower rate.

The current trends and the forecast for the next 12 to 24 months clearly show that most likely the housing market is expected to see a positive home price appreciation. In recent years, the price of homes has climbed dramatically. Many prospective buyers, especially those with limited financial resources, are eager to hear whether and when home prices will become more accessible.

Here is when housing market prices are going to crash. While this may appear to be an oversimplification, this is how markets operate. When demand is satisfied, prices fall. In many housing markets, there is an extreme demand for properties at the moment, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective buyers. Home construction has been increasing in recent years, but they are so far behind catching up. Thus, to see significant declines in home prices, we would need to see significant declines in buyer demand.

Demand declines primarily as a result of rising interest rates or a slowing economy in general. Ultimately, for rising interest rates to destroy home values, we'd need substantially less demand and far more housing supply than we presently have. Even if price growth moderates this year, it is extremely improbable that home prices will crash. Thus, there will be no crash in home prices; rather, there will be a pullback, which is normal for any asset class. The home price growth in the United States is forecasted to just “moderate” in 2023.

Affordability will be a concern for many, as home prices will continue to rise, if at a slower pace than the previous year. With 10 years having now passed since the Great Recession, the U.S. has been in the longest period of continued economic expansion on record. The housing market has been along for much of the ride and continues to benefit greatly from the overall health of the economy.

However, hot economies eventually cool, and with that, hot housing markets move more toward balance. Housing market forecasts are essentially informed guesses based on existing patterns. While the real estate pace of last year appears to be reverting to seasonality as we enter 2023, demand is not waning.

Increasing interest rates will almost certainly have a greater impact on the national housing market in 2023 than any other factor. While sellers remain in an advantageous position, price stability and the continuation of competitive interest rates may provide some much-needed relief to buyers this year. Housing supply is and will likely remain a challenge for some time as labor and material shortages, as well as general supply chain issues, delay new construction.

The housing market will continue to cool down, but not crash. Record-low borrowing rates, supply constraints, and first-time buyers drove prices up, but prices are expected to appreciate slower or remain flat for the next 12-24 months. Rising interest rates may lead to a pullback in prices and improve affordability. Nonetheless, it remains a concern as prices make it hard for some buyers to enter the market. Overall, the market will remain strong, but hot markets will move toward balance.

While the national housing market won't crash, several regional markets may see a decline in home prices in the coming years due to rising interest rates. Higher interest rates could lead to a decrease in affordability, which may result in fewer buyers in certain areas. As a result, regions that were previously experiencing rapid price growth may experience a slowdown or even a decline in home prices. However, it is worth mentioning that this would likely be a temporary setback, as long-term demographic and economic trends are still in favor of the housing market.

References

https://www.realtor.com/research/
https://www.realtor.com/research/blog/
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates/
https://www.blackknightinc.com/
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast
https://www.kpmg.us/insights/2023/march-2023-economic-compass.html
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/
https://www.zillow.com/research/daily-market-pulse-26666/
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx
https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/how-millennials-are-changing-housing-market

Is It a Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market in 2022?

December 6, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Buyers and sellers are bewildered by inconsistent housing market predictions, news, and statistics. Positives include record monthly price rises and never-before-seen low inventories, which bodes well for future values. Existing-home sales, while down from early-year highs is nonetheless solid. Housing metrics are still good. In the minus column, the 40% run-up in prices since the pandemic's inception and a rapid, near-doubling of mortgage rates from last autumn to near 6 percent as of now are increasing worries that house ownership has become so expensive for a big section of America that demand may collapse.

If increasing prices and rates cause purchasers to flee in droves, only a drastic price drop may bring them back. The superhot appreciation we've witnessed through May is expected to cool drastically for the remainder of the year. This move represents a significant departure from a trend of year-over-year growth that grew larger by the month. However, a pause in increases does not imply a reduction in prices. On the contrary, the fundamentals indicate that prices will continue to rise through the end of 2022 and into the next year.

The fundamentals predict values will rise until 2023. As usual, the outlook is uneven. In many metros, appreciation by 2022 will be behind what promises to be stubbornly high inflation, meaning high-priced homeowners will see their first “real” decreases in a decade or more. Ed Pinto, director of the American Enterprise Institute's Housing Center, predicts a shift from a booming to a modest sellers' market. Pinto offers a caveat. A further rise in mortgage rates or a protracted recession that boosts unemployment might lower dollar pricing.

It’s Still a Sellers’ Market in 2022

You may be wondering what this implies for your intentions to sell your property since there is increasing chatter about the real estate market cooling off from its peak frenzy during the pandemic. If you're considering a relocation, you should be aware that the market is still far from typical. Even though the supply of homes for sale has increased this year, there is still a lack of properties on the market. As a result, current market circumstances continue to favor sellers and buyers continue to struggle with rising home prices, mortgage rates, and inflation.

Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1,260,000 units, an increase of 9.6% from May and a 2.4% rise from the previous year (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.6 months in May and 2.5 months in June 2021. Months’ supply measures the speed of the market by calculating the number of months it would take for inventory to deplete at the current pace of sales.

Specifically, it is calculated as the ratio of active residential listings relative to the number of sales. The ratio is adjusted seasonally to remove variability during the year so markets can be tracked every month. A balanced market typically equates to 6-7 months of supply; while a buyer’s market equates to 7 months of supply and above, and a seller’s market equates to 6 months of supply and under.

It is a seller's market because the amount of available inventory of houses does not meet the current buyer demand. In a seller's market, real estate prices increase. The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $416,000, up 13.4% from June 2021 ($366,900), as prices increased in all regions. This marks 124 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

A buyer's market would exist only when there are more properties for sale than there are buyers in the market. When this occurs, buyers have the upper hand in negotiations since sellers are more eager to negotiate to sell their homes. That is not the market situation in 2022.

In a seller's market, the reverse is true. Too few properties are available relative to the number of buyers on the market, giving the seller all of the leverage. In this circumstance, purchasers will do everything possible to compete for the restricted quantity of available properties.
A market is neutral or balanced when the supply and demand are in equilibrium and there are sufficient properties to fulfill buyer demand at the present sales rate.

For the past two years, we’ve been in a red-hot sellers’ market because inventory has been near record lows. The blue section of this graph highlights just how far below a neutral market inventory still is today.

It is a Sellers Market in 2022 — Credits: Keeping Current Matters

According to the above inventory graph, it is still a seller's market in 2022. The US housing market has only transitioned from a very hot sellers' market to a moderate sellers' market. Even if the market is cooling, the situation is still favorable to property sellers. While buyer demand is decreasing owing to increasing mortgage rates, houses priced correctly continue to sell quickly. For sellers, this indicates that the window of opportunity to list their home for sale has not closed. In conclusion, the current housing market continues to benefit sellers.

References

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics
https://www.realtor.com/research/tag/months-supply/
https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2022/08/04/why-its-still-a-sellers-market/
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/

Absorption Rate and Months of Inventory in Real Estate

December 6, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Absorption rates and months of inventory in real estate. What are they, and why are they significant? This information is useful since it represents the liquidity of a market. As a real estate investor, you can help maximize your profits by knowing the liquidity of a given real estate market. By knowing the liquidity of a market, you will better understand that market and therefore be able to take advantage of the various buying strategies afforded by it.

One of the measurements frequently used to gauge the liquidity of a given market is the absorption rate. This is basically the rate at which a specific segment of a real estate market sells in a given time frame. These segments are usually categorized by price range but may also be categorized by property type. The absorption rate can assist sellers to determine the optimal price for a property. The absorption rate is useful information for buyers as well because it indicates the extent to which a seller may be willing to lower their asking price or make other concessions.

Absorption Rate Formula

The easiest way to understand absorption is to put it in more tangible terms and measure it in “Months of Inventory”. In other words, we take the number of active listings and divide it by the total number of sold transactions within the same month to give us the months of inventory.

To calculate the months of inventory for any given market:

Find the total number of active listings on the market last month.
Find the total number of sold transactions for last month.
Divide the number of active listings by the number of sales to determine the number of months of inventory remaining.

As a general rule, 5 to 6 months of inventory is considered to be a normal or balanced market. Over 6 months of inventory and we have a buyer’s market. If it is less than 5 months and we have a seller’s market. The smaller the available inventory, the tighter the market is. Keep in mind that these are simply guidelines and will differ from market to market.

For example, let’s say there were 8,000 active listings last month and 1,000 closed transactions. That leaves us 8 months of inventory remaining on the market and also tells us that we are in a buyer’s market.

If you are in the market looking to buy, calculating the months of inventory can give you an indication of how negotiable sellers might be. A large number, say 12 months or more, would mean that sellers have a high level of competition and will probably be more flexible on their sales price and terms.

On the other hand, if you are a seller trying to sell your property, the months of inventory will give you an indication of the level of competition you will face. Selling in a buyer’s market will require you to put some serious thought into your pricing strategy and any incentives you may want to offer.

National Economic Outlook (September 2013)

September 9, 2013 by Marco Santarelli

The rate of annual job growth in August, 1.7 percent, was basically the same as in previous months. We had better get used to the idea that this is the new normal, because there probably won't be much help from the lagging government and construction sectors.

Budget difficulties will prevent any meaningful increase in government spending, even though local and state revenues are now in better shape. The recession revealed the extent of unfunded pension liabilities for public employees, which will absorb any extra dollars.

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