Austin Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

Are you thinking about buying or selling a home in the Austin area? The Austin housing market trends suggest a shift towards a more balanced state after several years of a heavily favored seller's market. While the market is still competitive, especially for homes in desirable areas, buyers are gaining a bit more leverage, and the pace of price growth has slowed.

Increased inventory, longer days on the market, and a slight decrease in the median home price suggest that the extreme frenzy of previous years has eased. Let's dive in and examine the latest data.

Austin Housing Market Trends: A Look at the Latest Data

The Austin housing market has seen a surge in popularity due to a combination of factors that make the city an attractive place to live and invest. First and foremost, Austin boasts a robust job market, particularly in the technology sector, which draws individuals seeking career opportunities.

 

Home Sales

According to the October 2024 Market Snapshot from the Austin Board of REALTORS®, closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area decreased by 1.5% compared to the same time last year. This indicates a slight softening in the overall activity, but the market remains relatively robust. 2,248 homes were sold in October 2024.

We can also see that the number of homes sold in October 2024 is down compared to October 2023. This drop of 1.5% means there are fewer transactions happening, which might be a sign of buyers being more cautious about their purchasing decisions. This, in turn, might be influenced by factors like rising interest rates.

However, it's important to note that a 1.5% decrease is not a significant drop. In fact, it's still a healthy level of sales compared to historical trends. This means that there are still many buyers in the market, and homes are still selling, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

In the past, the market was extremely competitive with multiple offers on homes. There would be bidding wars, and homes would sell above the asking price. From my experience in this market, it’s been a buyer's market for the past year and a half. Now, the market is returning to a more balanced or even a slightly seller's market.

Home Prices

While the pace of price increases has slowed, home prices in Austin continue to remain high. The median sales price in October 2024 was $430,000, a 3.2% decrease compared to the previous year.

That being said, this figure still represents a significant increase compared to historical trends. So, while prices might not be escalating at the rate they were in the past, they're still not decreasing significantly.

The sales dollar volume also dipped by 1.0% to $1.27 Billion which shows that even with the slight decrease in the median home price, the value of homes being sold is still relatively high.

Based on the October 2024 data, it is safe to assume that home prices will continue to appreciate in 2024 but at a more moderate rate compared to previous years. As the market shifts to a more balanced state, we're likely to see a gradual leveling off of price increases, rather than a sharp decline.

Housing Supply

One of the primary factors influencing the Austin housing market trends is the supply of available homes. Here's what the current data tells us:

• New Listings Increased by 7.4%: This is a positive sign for buyers, as it means there are more options to choose from. We can expect to see the inventory continue to grow throughout 2024 which will help to bring the market to a more balanced state. More inventory often leads to a cooling effect on prices, giving buyers more leverage in negotiations.
• Active Listings Increased by 9.3% to 11,599: A higher number of active listings means more homes are available for sale on the market at any given time. This indicates that sellers might be willing to list their homes with the expectation that prices might not continue to increase at the same rate as in the past.

• Pending Sales Increased by 13.0%: This increase is a good indication of future sales activity. It suggests that buyers are still actively making offers, even if the pace has slowed compared to the frenzy of previous years.

Market Trends

The Austin housing market in 2024 is characterized by several key trends. Let's break them down:

• Shifting to a Balanced Market: We're seeing a shift away from the extremely competitive seller's market of recent years towards a more balanced state. The increased housing supply and slower price appreciation are leading to a more level playing field for buyers and sellers.

• Moderating Price Growth: As mentioned earlier, home prices are still rising, but at a more moderate pace. Buyers have a slightly better opportunity to negotiate prices compared to before. This shift will help to make the market more sustainable in the long term.

• Increased Inventory: The increase in new and active listings is a positive development for buyers. It provides more choices and potentially more room for negotiating favorable terms.

• Longer Days on Market: The average days on market increased to 70, up 7 days from last year. This signals that homes might be taking a bit longer to sell compared to when the market was extremely hot. This change is beneficial to buyers who can take their time and make informed decisions.
• Buyers’ Market: From my perspective, for the last year and a half, it has felt like a buyer's market. Buyers had more choices, and sellers were more willing to negotiate.

• Still a Competitive Market: Even with the shift towards a more balanced market, the Austin housing market remains competitive. Homes in desirable neighborhoods or with unique features are still likely to attract multiple offers. The competition is still there, but now buyers have slightly more power.
• Importance of Location and Features: The quality and desirability of homes still play a major role in market trends. Homes in prime locations with desirable features are still likely to be in demand.
• Interest Rates: Interest rates play a significant role in the market. Since they started going up in 2022, it has had a major influence on affordability and the rate at which homes are selling. Buyers need to be pre-approved for a mortgage and know their budget.

Is Austin a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the current data, the Austin housing market is trending towards a more balanced state. It's no longer the incredibly competitive seller's market we've seen in recent years. However, it's also not a completely buyer's market.

Buyers have more options, more time to make decisions, and a little more leverage in negotiating prices. However, the market is still competitive in certain neighborhoods and for homes with desired features.

While sellers still have a good opportunity to sell their homes, they may need to be more realistic with their pricing expectations and be more willing to negotiate.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While the median sales price decreased by 3.2% compared to the previous year, it's important to remember that this is a slight decrease. The market is still relatively strong. Home prices are not dropping significantly, and we can expect them to continue appreciating in 2024, albeit at a slower rate.

Months of Inventory

The months of inventory increased to 5.1 months, which is 0.5 months higher than last year. This indicates that there is a slightly higher inventory of homes on the market compared to the demand. This is considered a balanced market. If the months of inventory were below 5 months, then it would be considered a seller's market, and if it was above 7 months, it would be considered a buyer's market.

Average Close to List Price

In October 2024, the average close-to-list price was 92.7%, which is a slight decrease from 93.3% last year. This suggests that buyers might be negotiating for lower prices compared to the past. However, buyers are still paying very close to the asking price, indicating that the market is competitive.

Table of Key Austin Housing Market Trends 2024

Metric	October 2024	Year-Over-Year Change	Significance
Median Sales Price	$430,000	-3.2%	Slower Price Growth
Closed Sales	2,248	-1.5%	Slight Decrease in Sales
Sales Dollar Volume	$1.27 Billion	-1.0%	Slight Decrease
New Listings	3,333	+7.4%	Increased Inventory
Active Listings	11,599	+9.3%	Increased Inventory
Pending Sales	2,344	+13.0%	Increased Future Sales
Average Days on Market	70 Days	+7 Days	Longer Time to Sell
Average Close to List Price	92.7%	-0.6%	Buyers Negotiating
Months of Inventory	5.1 Months	+0.5 Months	Balanced Market

Austin Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

Austin, Texas, has been a magnet for both residents and investors for over a decade. This vibrant city has fostered a booming tech industry, a thriving music scene, and a delicious culinary landscape, all contributing to its undeniable allure. But for those considering putting down roots or investing in real estate, understanding Austin's real estate forecast is crucial.

It's a hot topic these days, with many people wondering if Austin's red-hot real estate will continue its upward trend or if home prices are about to cool off. Zillow's current forecast for the Austin area suggests a slight dip in home values in the coming months, specifically projecting a 0.4% decline by November 2024, a 1.8% drop by January 2025, and a 0.4% decrease by October 2025. So, while it's not a dramatic crash, it does suggest a period of stabilization or even a slight price correction.

Let's take a closer look at Zillow's prediction for the Austin housing market. The data, which I've pulled from their website, shows that the Austin MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) is expected to see a fairly flat home value trajectory for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. I find this interesting, as historically, the Austin market has been known for its rapid growth.

Date	Austin Home Value Forecast (%)
November 2024	-0.4%
January 2025	-1.8%
October 2025	-0.4%

Comparing Austin's Forecast to Other Texas Regions

It's also helpful to compare Austin's forecast to other major cities within Texas. While the overall trend seems to be towards some level of moderation, some regions, such as McAllen and El Paso, are projected to see a significant increase in home values through October 2025. Take a look at this table:

Region	October 2025 Home Value Forecast (%)
Austin, TX	-0.4%
Dallas, TX	1.2%
Houston, TX	0.6%
San Antonio, TX	0.2%
McAllen, TX	4.4%
El Paso, TX	3.5%
Killeen, TX	1.7%
Corpus Christi, TX	-1.4%

Will Austin Home Prices Crash?

Based on my reading of the available data, I don't believe a crash is imminent in the Austin housing market. While a potential slowdown or a slight dip in prices is forecast for the next year or so, it's not a drastic drop. What we may experience is a return to a more “normal” market, with less intense competition and price increases that we've seen in recent years. The market is adjusting to interest rate hikes and overall economic conditions.

A Possible Forecast for 2026 and Beyond

Predicting the future is always tricky, but based on the current trends, I believe that 2026 may see continued stabilization in the Austin housing market. It's possible that we may see a slight upward trend in home values as the economy continues to recover and interest rates begin to stabilize. However, growth could still be slower than what we've seen in the past.

My Thoughts

Personally, I believe the Austin housing market is still a very strong market. It is driven by a robust job market, a thriving economy, and a great quality of life. However, expect a slower period of growth. I would advise keeping a close watch on the market and making informed decisions based on your personal financial situation.

Is the Austin Housing Market Still Overpriced?

If you're thinking about buying a house in Austin, you're likely wondering: is the market overpriced? The answer, like most things in real estate, isn't a simple yes or no. Let's dive into the data and see what it tells us.

Hot Market, High Prices

There's no doubt Austin's housing market has been on fire. A strong local economy, booming population, and influx of out-of-state buyers have sent home prices soaring. Studies show Austin homes are among the most overvalued in the nation, with buyers paying well above what the house might be worth based on traditional factors. Boise, Idaho, is the only city with a higher premium!

But Wait, There's More

Before you write off Austin completely, consider this: compared to other major cities, Austin can still be affordable. While the median price tag is high compared to its own history, it's lower than giants like San Francisco or Los Angeles. Austin's cost of living is also generally lower, making homeownership a more realistic goal for some buyers.

Looking ahead, experts are bullish on Austin's long-term prospects. The city's strong and diverse economy is less likely to take a tumble in a downturn, and the growing population suggests continued demand for housing. This could mean your investment appreciates over time.

So, is Austin overpriced? It depends on your perspective and priorities. If affordability is your main concern, the high prices might be a hurdle. But for those seeking a long-term investment in a vibrant city with a healthy economy, Austin could be a good fit.

The most important factor? Understanding your own financial situation and goals. Carefully evaluate your budget and long-term plans before deciding to buy in Austin, or any market for that matter. Don't be afraid to crunch the numbers and talk to a financial advisor to make sure your dream home doesn't turn into a financial nightmare.

How Does Austin's Housing Affordability Compare to Other Major Texas Cities?

Austin's housing affordability presents multiple challenges when compared to other major Texas cities such as Dallas or Houston. While Texas remains more affordable than many national housing markets, Austin has experienced a significant rise in costs, making it less accessible for many first-time buyers.

Factors contributing to this situation include high demand, low inventories, and the city’s reputation as a desirable place to live and work. With the average home value at $539,099, those looking to purchase homes may find affordability constraints more pronounced compared to the comparatively lower averages in cities like San Antonio or Fort Worth.

This ongoing affordability challenge prompts many to explore alternative housing options or consider nearby suburbs that offer more competitive prices.

Are There Signs of a Housing Bubble in Austin?

While discussions about a housing bubble are common, Austin's current market dynamics suggest a more nuanced reality. While home prices have surged drastically over recent years, the recent market corrections do not necessarily indicate a bubble that is about to burst. Instead, the recent declines signal a recalibration of values within the market.

Economic fundamentals such as strong job growth, diverse industries, and lasting demand for housing help support the market long-term. Nevertheless, potential buyers and investors should remain vigilant and conduct thorough market analysis to understand both local and national economic indicators that could influence Austin's real estate landscape.

Which Neighborhoods in Austin Are Seeing the Most Growth or Decline?

Certain neighborhoods in Austin are emerging as hot spots for growth, driven by ongoing development and lifestyle appeal. Areas like North Austin and East Austin have gained popularity among younger buyers and families due to their vibrant culture, accessibility, and amenities.

Conversely, some traditionally desirable neighborhoods are witnessing slower sales, primarily due to higher prices and mature markets that may not offer much in terms of new inventory. Identifying which neighborhoods are growing or declining entails paying attention to broader market trends, demographic shifts, and the availability of amenities that cater to emerging buyer preferences.

Is Austin Still Attracting Out-of-State Buyers?

Austin continues to attract a significant number of out-of-state buyers, drawn by its dynamic economy, quality of life, and cultural offerings. Although there have been fluctuations in migration trends, the city’s reputation as a tech hub and cultural hotspot maintains its allure for many relocating from states like California, New York, and Illinois.

This influx adds layers to the housing demand, as newcomers seek to take advantage of Austin's unique lifestyle and employment opportunities. As long as the city retains its appeal, it is likely to continue attracting out-of-state buyers, contributing to both local market vitality and growth challenges.

What Impact is Austin's Job Market Having on Housing Demand?

Austin's robust and diverse job market plays a significant role in driving housing demand. Tech industries, educational institutions, and healthcare services provide stable employment opportunities that continue to attract new residents. With companies expanding and relocating to the area, the demand for housing—both for purchase and rental—remains strong.

Additionally, job seekers and young professionals are increasingly drawn to the city's innovative landscape, further fueling residential demand. As long as Austin's economic climate remains favorable, the impact on housing demand is likely to persist, keeping the market dynamic and competitive.

Should You Invest in the Austin Real Estate Market?

Austin's rapidly expanding economic industry is driving more people into the city which is increasing the housing demand. A number of reasons have affected the present situation of the Austin housing market, one of which is the high migration of firms and persons relocating to the city from Texas and out-of-state, which has led to a robust and varied economy that attracts people seeking opportunity.

A surge of people moving in, combined with rapid population growth and low mortgage interest rates, has turned Austin and its surrounding area into a sellers' market. Austin’s engine of job and population growth is not projected to slow down anytime soon—the biggest drivers of residential real estate demand. Its economy has diversified and strengthened over the past two decades.

Companies like Google and Tesla are moving operations to Austin. The software giant Oracle has also relocated its headquarters here. As more companies move here, that means more people looking for homes, and the city is also attractive to outside investors. With a steady influx of job creation in the pipeline, the housing market will continue to post strong numbers. Big companies moving here will also play into what happens to the housing market.

If you're considering real estate investment, Austin, Texas, is a city that should be on your radar. Known for its vibrant culture, strong economy, and population growth, Austin offers numerous opportunities for real estate investors. Let's explore in detail why Austin is a promising destination for real estate investment.

Population Growth and Trends

Population Growth:

• Austin has been experiencing consistent and substantial population growth for many years. The city's population has been steadily increasing, making it one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States.
• The city's appeal to newcomers is driven by factors like its vibrant tech scene, cultural attractions, and overall quality of life.

Trends:

• The population growth trend in Austin is expected to continue, with projections indicating a significant increase in residents over the coming years.
• As the city's population expands, the demand for housing, both rental and owned, is likely to rise, creating opportunities for real estate investors.

Economy and Jobs

Economic Strength:

• Austin's economy is robust and diverse, with a thriving technology sector, a burgeoning startup scene, and a strong presence of major corporations.
• The city consistently ranks high in terms of job creation and economic growth, making it an attractive destination for professionals seeking employment opportunities.

Job Market:

• The city's job market is diverse and dynamic, with a focus on technology, healthcare, education, and entertainment.
• Employment opportunities continue to draw individuals to Austin, contributing to the population growth and housing demand.

Livability and Other Factors

Livability:

• Austin consistently receives high marks for its quality of life. The city offers a vibrant cultural scene, excellent healthcare facilities, and access to outdoor activities.
• It's known for its music and arts culture, making it a desirable place to live for professionals and creatives.

Education:

• Austin is home to top-tier educational institutions, including the University of Texas at Austin. This draws students, academics, and their families to the city, further boosting the demand for housing.

Infrastructure:

• The city has invested in infrastructure and transportation improvements to accommodate its growing population, making it more accessible and commuter-friendly.

Austin Rental Property Market Size and Growth

Rental Market:

• Austin's rental property market is substantial and continues to grow. The city offers a wide range of rental properties, from apartments to single-family homes, catering to a diverse tenant population.
• The city's dynamic job market attracts young professionals, making it an ideal location for rental property investment.

The latest Zumper Austin Metro Area Report delved into the dynamics of rental listings across various cities in the metropolitan area, shedding light on both the most and least expensive locales as well as those experiencing the fastest growing rents. According to the report, the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Texas stood at $1,132 last month.

The best place to buy rental property is about finding growing markets. Cities like Round Rock, Cedar Park, and Pflugerville are good for investors looking to get started with rental property ownership at an affordable price. These cities look good for rental property investment this year as rents are growing over there. These trends provide a macro look at the growing rental demand. Each real estate market has its own unique supply-demand dynamics with unique neighborhoods that present their own opportunities for investors.

The Most Expensive Cities

• Austin: Topping the list as the most expensive city, with one-bedroom apartments commanding $1,500.
• Kyle & Leander: Sharing the second spot, both cities recorded rents of $1,370.
• Cedar Park: Following closely, Cedar Park boasted a median rent of $1,340.

The Least Expensive Cities

• San Marcos: Emerged as the most affordable city, with one-bedroom units priced at $1,180.
• Round Rock: Securing the second position, Round Rock offered rents at $1,310.
• Pflugerville & Georgetown: Jointly occupying the third spot, both cities recorded a median rent of $1,320.

Largest Declines in Rent (Year over Year Percentage)

• Georgetown: Witnessed the most significant decline, experiencing a 14.8% drop compared to the same period last year.
• Austin: Followed closely, with rents decreasing by 10.2%.
• Round Rock: Ranked third in terms of decline, with a 9% decrease in rent.

These insights provide valuable data for both renters and investors navigating the dynamic Austin Metro Area rental market.

Growth Potential:

• The city's population growth and job market strength contribute to the growth potential of the rental property market. As more people move to Austin, the demand for rental units is expected to rise.
• Investors can explore various rental strategies, including long-term leases, short-term rentals, and vacation rentals, to diversify their real estate portfolio.

Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

Investor-Friendly Environment:

• Austin's business-friendly environment extends to real estate investment. The city offers attractive incentives and a favorable legal framework for real estate investors.
• Real estate investors benefit from a strong property rights regime and a well-regulated market.

Tax Benefits:

• Texas does not have a state income tax, which can be advantageous for investors looking to maximize their returns.
• Investors should explore the tax implications of specific investment strategies, including property taxes and capital gains.

Market Resilience:

• Austin's real estate market has shown resilience during economic downturns, and it is considered one of the more stable markets in the country.
• Investors appreciate the market's ability to weather economic fluctuations and maintain its growth trajectory.

Diversification:

• Investors can diversify their portfolios by exploring various types of real estate, from residential properties to commercial and mixed-use developments, taking advantage of Austin's growing and diverse market.

As a real estate investor, Austin's population growth, strong economy, livability, rental property market size, and other investor-friendly factors make it a compelling choice. However, it's essential to conduct thorough market research, consult with local real estate experts, and tailor your investment strategy to your specific goals and risk tolerance. Austin's real estate market offers exciting opportunities, but informed decision-making is key to success.