It wasn't that long ago that the Texas housing market felt unstoppable. Homes were selling in bidding wars, often in days, and prices seemed to climb forever. For anyone trying to buy, it was a frustrating, expensive time. But times change, and the latest data points suggest a significant shift is underway. Indeed, the Texas housing market enters a major correction phase as prices drop across the state, driven by a dramatic increase in the number of homes for sale.

I've been watching real estate markets for years, and what we're seeing in Texas right now is a clear signal that the wild boom times are over, at least for now. Let's dive into what the numbers are telling us and what it means if you're a buyer, a seller, or just curious about the Lone Star State's real estate future.

Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?

The Unmistakable Sign: Skyrocketing Inventory

The first and perhaps most obvious sign of a changing market is the sheer number of homes sitting on the market. Think of it like this: when there are way more items on the store shelves than people wanting to buy them, the store eventually has to lower prices to move the goods. The same principle applies to housing.

According to data highlighted by real estate analyst Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, the number of active listings for sale across Texas has shot up dramatically. Looking at the historical data, the state's inventory levels were relatively stable before the pandemic madness.

• In 2017, active listings were around 89,193.
• They hovered in the 88,000s and 90,000s through 2018, 2019, and 2020.
• The average during this pre-pandemic period was roughly 80,128 listings.

Then came the pandemic boom. Fueled by low interest rates, remote work, and a rush of migration, demand exploded while supply tightened. Builders couldn't keep up, and homeowners with incredibly low mortgage rates weren't selling. This caused inventory to absolutely plummet to historic lows.

• In 2021, listings dropped to a stunning low of around 35,997.
• 2022 wasn't much better, staying incredibly tight at about 34,932.

These incredibly low numbers are a huge reason prices jumped so much. There just weren't enough houses for everyone who wanted one.

But the tide has turned. As interest rates climbed and the initial rush of pandemic buyers slowed, more homes started coming onto the market, and fewer buyers were able to jump in.

• Inventory started climbing in 2023 to around 68,817.
• It continued its ascent in 2024, hitting about 95,156.
• And now, the data point that really catches my eye: in April 2025, active listings hit a whopping 123,237.

Let that sink in. 123,237 active listings. Compared to the roughly 80,128 average from 2017-2020, that's about a 53% increase in the number of homes available for sale. Compared to the pandemic lows of 2021-2022, it's literally more than triple the inventory.

From my perspective as someone who follows these markets, such a rapid and significant rise in inventory is a screaming signal. It tells me that the intense competition among buyers has faded. Sellers are finding their homes are sitting on the market longer, and they're facing much more competition from other homes for sale. This shifts the power dynamic firmly towards buyers.

Prices Are Following Suit: It's Not Just Inventory

High inventory is important because it's a leading indicator, but the real impact people feel is on prices. And Nick Gerli's analysis confirms what we'd expect: prices are now dropping across the state.

This isn't just a prediction based on inventory; it's a report on what's actually happening. We're seeing more price cuts, longer days on market before a home sells (if it sells), and ultimately, sale prices coming down from their peaks.

Why is this happening now? It's a mix of factors all coming together:

1. The Inventory Surge: As discussed, more choices mean buyers don't have to overpay or waive contingencies like they did before.
2. Higher Interest Rates: This is a massive factor. Even if a house price is slightly lower, the monthly payment on a mortgage is significantly higher now than it was a couple of years ago because interest rates have risen. This directly impacts how much house people can afford, reducing the pool of eligible buyers.
3. Slowing Migration: The influx of new residents, particularly from more expensive states like California, was a major driver of demand and price growth in Texas during the boom. Nick Gerli notes that domestic migration into Texas slowed significantly in 2024, down 62%. While Texas is still growing, the pace of migration that fueled the recent frantic buying has cooled considerably. Fewer people arriving with potentially higher budgets means less competition for local buyers.

When you combine a flood of supply with cooling demand (due to affordability issues and slower migration), the result is predictable: prices have to come down to find the market clearing level.

How Much Could Prices Drop in Texas? Looking Ahead

This is the question on everyone's mind: just how far could this correction go? Predicting the exact bottom is impossible, but the data gives us some strong hints and potential scenarios.

One way to look at it is comparing current prices to long-term historical norms relative to incomes or rents. Nick Gerli's analysis suggests that Texas home values are still about 17.7% overvalued today compared to that historical relationship. This means, even with some recent small drops, prices haven't yet fully adjusted back to where they “should” be based on underlying economic fundamentals over the long run. He notes this overvaluation has improved a bit recently (meaning prices got even more overvalued at the peak), but it's still significant.

Based on current supply/demand conditions like the skyrocketing inventory, increased price cuts, and longer days on market, Reventure's short-term forecast (over the next 12 months) is for home prices in Texas to drop by -4.0% statewide. This seems like a reasonable near-term prediction given the clear shift in market dynamics we're witnessing.

However, Nick Gerli also talks about the potential for a larger correction, perhaps in the range of 15-20%. This more significant drop is a possibility, especially if certain economic conditions worsen. A key risk factor he points out is the oil industry. Texas's economy, while diverse, still has significant ties to energy. He mentions oil prices around $57/barrel as being problematic, potentially causing local operators to shut down production. A recession in the oil sector could lead to job losses and reduced economic activity in parts of Texas, further weakening housing demand and potentially accelerating price declines.

My own thoughts align with this analysis. Markets rarely correct in a perfectly smooth line. The 4% drop over the next year might be the initial phase, especially if economic conditions remain stable. But if there's an external shock, like a downturn in a key industry or a broader recession, the correction could easily deepen into that 15-20% range. The underlying overvaluation suggests there's still room for prices to fall before they hit historical norms.

The Silver Lining: A Step Towards Affordability

While headlines about price drops can sound alarming, it's important to remember why this correction is happening. The previous run-up in prices made Texas, a state long known for its relative affordability, increasingly out of reach for many of its residents. This was particularly true for first-time buyers or those earning local wages who weren't benefiting from the high salaries of coastal transplants.

Prices declining is actually a necessary step towards restoring some balance and improving affordability. As prices come down, more local Texans will be able to consider buying a home again. This can bring buyers back into the market, which in turn helps stabilize things eventually.

Even after a potential 4% drop, Nick Gerli's analysis suggests the market might still be about 10-12% overvalued. This indicates that the path to full affordability, based on historical metrics, might require further price adjustments down the line.

Understanding Reventure's Forecast Score

Reventure App uses a forecast score (0 to 100) to predict 12-month price movements based on supply and demand fundamentals. Texas currently has a score of 37/100. Scores closer to 0 indicate a market where prices are expected to decline, while scores closer to 100 suggest prices are likely to rise. A score of 37 is on the lower end, reinforcing the expectation of falling prices in the near future compared to other markets in the U.S. It signals weak fundamentals for price appreciation right now.

My Take on What This Means

Based on the data, the trends, and my understanding of how markets work, here's my personal view:

• For Sellers: The party is over. Listing your home now means entering a market with much more competition. You'll likely need to price competitively, be prepared for negotiation, and accept that your home might take longer to sell than it would have a year or two ago. Overpricing is the quickest way to have your listing sit and eventually require larger price cuts.
• For Buyers: This is potentially good news. You have more options, less pressure to make rushed decisions, and more leverage to negotiate on price and terms. However, higher interest rates still make the monthly cost of buying high, even if the price comes down. Don't just look at the list price; look at the full monthly payment with the current rates. Do your homework on local market conditions – while the state average is dropping, some specific neighborhoods might hold up better than others initially.
• For Texas: A housing market correction, while painful for those who bought at the peak, is ultimately healthy if it improves affordability. Making it easier for residents who work in the state to afford homes is crucial for long-term economic stability and quality of life.

The dramatic increase in inventory, coupled with clear signs of prices dropping and underlying overvaluation, strongly indicates that the Texas housing market is undergoing a significant correction. It's a necessary adjustment after a period of unsustainable growth. While the exact magnitude and duration of the downturn remain to be seen and could be influenced by broader economic factors like the energy sector, the direction is clear: the Texas housing market is cooling down, and prices are finding a new level.

After years of sizzling growth, things are definitely shifting in the Texas housing market. If you're wondering whether home prices might actually come down in the Lone Star State, you're not alone. And according to recent Zillow forecasts, the answer is a firm yes for some specific locations. In fact, the data points to 5 Texas Housing Markets Set For Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026, with Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater expected to see drops of over 10% by March 2026. This isn't a statewide alarm bell, but it’s a significant heads-up for folks in these particular markets.

5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of Double-Digit Price Crash

Now, before we dive into those five areas, let's get a feel for the bigger picture in Texas. As of March 31, 2025, the average Texas home value sits around $307,629. This figure is actually down 1.4% over the past year, which tells us the market has already started to cool off from its previous fever pitch.

Homes are going to pending (meaning an offer has been accepted) in about 33 days on average. Interestingly, only 14.4% of sales are closing above the list price, while a hefty 65.1% are selling for under the asking price. This data strongly suggests that buyers are gaining a bit more leverage, and sellers are having to be more realistic. It's a market in transition, that's for sure.

So, with that statewide backdrop, let's zoom in on the projections.

5 Texas Areas Zillow Says Will See Prices Tumble in Double-Digits

Zillow, one of the big names in real estate data, regularly crunches numbers to predict where home values might be headed. Their latest forecast, using March 31, 2025, as a baseline, shines a spotlight on five specific Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas. These aren't the sprawling giants like Dallas or Houston, but smaller communities that might be more sensitive to economic ebbs and flows.

Here’s the breakdown of the projections for these areas:

As you can see, by early 2026 (specifically March 31, 2026), all five of these areas are forecast to experience price drops exceeding 10%. Pecos leads the pack with a potential 12.7% decline. This is significant, and if you live in, own property in, or are considering buying in these areas, this is information you'll want to consider carefully.

Why These Areas? A Closer Look at the Dynamics

It’s natural to ask: why these specific towns? From my experience watching housing trends, several factors often come into play, especially in smaller markets.

• Pecos, TX (Projected Decline: -12.7%)
  • Location & Economy: Pecos is deep in West Texas, a region heavily influenced by the oil and gas industry. When oil prices are high, areas like Pecos can boom. Conversely, when the energy sector slows down or if there's a perception of future slowdowns, employment can dip, and housing demand can weaken significantly. This “boom-and-bust” cycle is something I've seen impact West Texas towns repeatedly. The significant projected decline here strongly suggests an anticipation of softening in the energy sector or a correction from a previous oil-fueled price surge.
  • My Take: A 12.7% drop is steep. It signals that the local economy, likely tied to oil and gas, might be facing headwinds. For anyone who bought at the peak of a recent boom, this could be a tough pill to swallow.
• Big Spring, TX (Projected Decline: -11.4%)
  • Location & Economy: Like Pecos, Big Spring is in West Texas and has strong ties to the oil industry. It also serves as a regional hub for a broader agricultural area. The same vulnerabilities linked to energy price fluctuations apply here.
  • My Take: Similar to Pecos, the reliance on a dominant industry makes Big Spring susceptible. If local job growth tied to that industry falters, housing often follows. This forecast might also reflect a market that overshot during the pandemic-era buying frenzy and is now recalibrating.
• Alice, TX (Projected Decline: -11.3%)
  • Location & Economy: Alice is located in South Texas, between Corpus Christi and Laredo. Its economy has historically been linked to the oil and gas industry, agriculture, and government jobs (including a significant border patrol presence in the wider region).
  • My Take: A double-digit decline here suggests a potential slowdown across a few of its economic drivers or perhaps an oversupply of housing relative to current demand. South Texas markets can sometimes be a bit more insulated than pure oil towns, but they aren't immune to broader economic shifts or changes in crucial local industries.
• Raymondville, TX (Projected Decline: -11.2%)
  • Location & Economy: Raymondville is in the Rio Grande Valley in deep South Texas. Agriculture is a major economic pillar here, along with services and some light manufacturing. It's a smaller community, and its economic fortunes are often tied to the agricultural cycle and regional economic health.
  • My Take: For areas like Raymondville, which aren't major metropolitan centers, housing markets can be very sensitive to local employment. If agricultural outputs are down, or if there's less disposable income circulating, it can cool housing demand quickly. The projected decline here might also point to affordability challenges even at lower price points when coupled with higher interest rates.
• Sweetwater, TX (Projected Decline: -10.6%)
  • Location & Economy: Sweetwater is in West Central Texas, known historically for gypsum plants and now increasingly for wind energy. It also has a history with cotton and cattle.
  • My Take: While the rise of wind energy is a positive long-term diversification, the housing market might be correcting from previous highs or feeling the pinch of broader economic slowing. Even with new industries, smaller towns can experience price volatility. It's possible that home construction or investor activity outpaced sustainable local demand in the recent past.

Understanding the “Why”: Factors Driving Potential Declines

Zillow uses complex algorithms, but from a boots-on-the-ground perspective, here are some common reasons why smaller MSAs like these might face steeper price corrections:

• Economic Specialization: As we've seen, many of these towns have economies that lean heavily on one or two industries (especially oil and gas). This lack of diversification makes them more vulnerable. If that key industry sneezes, the local economy, and by extension the housing market, can catch a serious cold.
• Population Fluctuations: Smaller towns can see more dramatic swings in population. If jobs related to a key industry dry up, workers may move away, reducing housing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
• Supply and Demand Imbalances: Sometimes, a rush of new construction (perhaps during a boom period) can lead to an oversupply of homes if demand doesn't keep pace. In smaller markets, it doesn't take a huge number of excess homes to tip the scales.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: While higher interest rates impact all markets, they can hit affordability harder in areas where incomes might not be rising as quickly. If borrowing costs go up too much, potential buyers simply can't qualify, leading to less demand and falling prices.
• The “Normalization” Effect: The last few years were anything but normal for real estate. Prices shot up almost everywhere. It's possible that these smaller markets experienced an unsustainable surge, and what we're seeing now is a correction back to more historically typical price levels or growth rates. I often tell clients that markets can't go up forever; gravity eventually plays a role.

What This Forecast Means for You

Whether you're a buyer, seller, or homeowner in these areas, this forecast is worth paying attention to.

For Potential Homebuyers:

• Opportunity Knocks? A declining market can mean lower prices and potentially more negotiating power. You might find homes that were out of reach a year ago are now more affordable.
• Patience Could Pay Off: If Zillow's timeline is accurate, prices might continue to soften through early 2026. Waiting could mean a better deal, but…
• Catching a Falling Knife: Timing the absolute bottom of a market is nearly impossible. Buying in a declining market also means your home's value could dip further after you purchase. It's crucial to think long-term and buy for the right reasons (you love the home, the location works for you), not just speculation.
• Due Diligence is Key: Scrutinize the local job market, understand why prices are falling, and get a thorough home inspection.

For Home Sellers:

• Adjust Expectations: If you're planning to sell in these areas, you may need to be realistic about your asking price. The days of multiple over-asking offers are likely gone for now.
• Price Competitively: Work with a local real estate agent who truly understands current market conditions. Overpricing your home in a declining market can mean it sits for a long time and ultimately sells for less.
• Presentation Matters More Than Ever: With more competition from other sellers and potentially fewer buyers, making your home shine (clean, decluttered, good curb appeal) is critical.
• Be Prepared for Longer Listing Times: Homes may take longer to sell than they did during the boom.

For Current Homeowners (Not Selling):

• Paper Value vs. Real Life: Remember, a decline in your home's estimated value is only a “paper loss” unless you need to sell or refinance immediately. If you love your home and your mortgage is manageable, these fluctuations are part of long-term homeownership.
• Focus on a Stable Foundation: The key is whether your personal financial situation is secure and your housing payment is comfortable. Market zigs and zags are less stressful when your own house is in order.

For Real Estate Investors:

• Proceed with Caution: Investing in a declining market is risky. While lower acquisition prices are tempting, you need to be confident that the market will eventually recover and that rental demand (if you're buying to rent) will remain stable or grow.
• Deep Local Knowledge Required: Generic investment strategies rarely work in highly localized, shifting markets. You'd need an almost unfair advantage in terms of local insight to make a successful bet here, in my opinion.

A Word on Forecasts and the Bigger Texas Picture

It's super important to remember that Zillow's numbers are forecasts, not guarantees. They are based on current data and trends, but things can change. Economic conditions can shift, local developments can alter a town's trajectory, and unforeseen events can always occur.

Also, and this is critical: these five MSAs do not represent the entire Texas housing market. Texas is a massive, diverse state. The dynamics in Pecos are vastly different from those in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, or San Antonio. While these major metro areas are also experiencing a slowdown and price moderation compared to the frenzy of 2021-2022, they generally have more diversified economies and different demand drivers. A double-digit decline in a major metro would be a much bigger story with far wider implications.

What I see in this data is a reflection of hyper-local market corrections. These smaller areas, often more tethered to specific industries or experiencing sharper boom-bust cycles, are adjusting more dramatically than the larger, more resilient economic hubs.

Factors I'll Be Watching Moving Forward

To see if these projections hold true, or if the situation changes, I'll be keeping an eye on several key indicators for these specific areas and for Texas generally:

• Oil and Gas Prices/Activity: For Pecos and Big Spring especially, this is paramount.
• Local Job Reports: Are these areas gaining or losing jobs? What sectors are growing or shrinking?
• Inventory Levels: Is the number of homes for sale rising rapidly? This usually signals downward pressure on prices.
• Days on Market: How long are homes taking to sell? If this number creeps up, buyers have more power.
• Mortgage Interest Rates: National rate trends will continue to influence affordability everywhere.
• Migration Patterns: Are people moving into or out of these specific Texas towns?

Final Thoughts: Stay Informed, Stay Local

The news is a significant piece of information, especially for those directly connected to Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater. It underscores that not all real estate markets behave the same, even within a single state.

My advice? If these areas are on your radar, treat this forecast as a valuable data point. Dig deeper, talk to local real estate professionals who have on-the-ground experience, and consider your own financial situation and goals. The Texas real estate scene is always evolving, and staying informed is your best strategy for navigating its twists and turns.