Housing Bubble Archives

Housing Market Crash 2023: Will Real Estate Crash Again?

May 24, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

The US housing market is going through a crucial period in 2023 with conflicting opinions on the future of the market. The housing market has been experiencing a period of significant growth in recent years, with record-low mortgage rates and high demand pushing home prices to all-time highs. However, concerns about a housing market crash have started to surface, with some experts sounding the alarm that the US housing market may be on the verge of a crash.

In this article, we will explore the current state of the housing market, analyze the factors that may contribute to a potential crash, and assess whether a market crash is likely to occur in the near future. Some housing analysts are anticipating a more balanced market with single-digit annual appreciation while others fear a housing market crash or collapse in the near future.

Will the Housing Market Crash?

Inflation is soaring, and there is a fear of an impending recession in the country. However, the majority of real estate professionals do not believe that the housing market is in a bubble or poses a threat to the faltering economy.

Housing caused the worst financial crisis in recent memory. When shoddy mortgages crumbled, the nation was left with foreclosures, numerous new houses remained empty, and millions of Americans were suddenly underwater. Throughout the preceding century, the housing market met considerable barriers, but none, with the exception of the Great Depression of 1929, led to the decrease in home values that happened during the Great Recession of 2007.

It is also important to note that not all economic downturns dampen the real estate market. Despite the economic downturn, the home market and demand remained robust during the 2001 recession. The housing market has been subjected to a number of severe hurdles during the course of the previous century; but, with the exception of 1929's Great Depression, none of these challenges have resulted in a decrease in house values comparable to that of 2007's Great Recession.

The housing market's recent pandemic boom with skyrocketing prices, bidding wars, and an influx of investors has parallels to the previous time. However, this time, the majority of real estate professionals believe that the housing market won't crash or trigger a recession and may even assist the country's recovery. The mortgage sector has taken action against loans that ballooned in size or were intended for borrowers to fail. Only purchasers with consistent, verifiable income may now qualify for mortgages.

This has resulted in a significantly lower risk compared to the Subprime lending during the Great Recession of 2005-2007. The majority of bad mortgages have been eliminated, and lenders have stricter requirements on borrowers. The housing shortage is too severe with many more individuals trying to purchase and rent houses than there are available.

Year-over-year home price growth decelerated in 2022 as mortgage rates rose and housing affordability declined. With mortgage rates continuing to remain high, home prices are predicted to decline in the near term. However, experts do not anticipate the widespread unemployment that characterized the Great Recession and also believe that the recession will be quite brief if it occurs. This means fewer homeowners will be unable to pay their mortgages and those who are struggling may decide to sell their homes at a profit.

Many tapped-out homeowners are stepping back as mortgage interest rates rise into the 6%+ range or close to 7%. Some no longer qualify for mortgages big enough to finance the home they desire, others cannot afford the increased rates and prices, and some are taking a wait-and-see strategy out of fear of a recession. As a result, fewer properties are selling, bidding wars are subsiding, and bids beyond the asking price are decreasing. Numerous house sellers have been compelled to reduce their asking prices.

In the event of a recession, mortgage rates are anticipated to decline, which should reintroduce buyers who did not lose their jobs to the housing market. This will increase home sales and benefit the economy as a whole. The housing market can assist the nation in climbing out of a recession.

While the US housing market is experiencing changes in 2023, most real estate professionals do not believe that it will crash or trigger a recession. The mortgage sector has taken action to prevent a repeat of the Great Recession, and the majority of bad mortgages have been eliminated. The housing shortage is too severe, and the majority of Americans are hoping to avoid another 18 months of hardship. The housing market may even assist the nation's recovery in the event of a recession by increasing home sales.

Millennial Housing Demand: A Buffer Against Housing Market Crash

The housing market crash is a concern for many potential home buyers and sellers. However, the increased demand for homes from the millennial generation may act as a buffer against a potential crash. Millennials and Gen Z want more housing. The housing market is one of the most important indicators of economic growth, and it has been showing some signs of instability in recent years. However, the increased demand for homes from the millennial generation may act as a buffer against the housing market crash.

According to the National Association of Realtors' 2022 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends report, millennials now make up the largest percentage of home buyers at 43%, with Generation X buying the most expensive homes at a median price of $320,000.

The report also found that most buyers purchased homes in suburban areas and small towns, dispelling the myth that younger generations are flocking to city centers. Millennials, in particular, are more likely to use the Internet to find a home they will ultimately purchase, and 92% of them use real estate agents to help find the right home and negotiate the terms of the transaction.

The trend of younger generations purchasing homes for the first time is also on the rise, with 81% of younger millennial home buyers purchasing a home for the first time, and just under half of older millennial buyers being first-time buyers. Additionally, the percentage of millennial sellers is on the rise, increasing from 22% to 26% over the past year.

Many factors can contribute to the decision to buy or sell a home, and for all home buyers under the age of 57, the main driver was the desire to own a home of their own. Among those 57 and older, the desire to be closer to friends and family was the top reason, followed by the desire for a smaller home.

While younger generations tended to move shorter distances when relocating, the overall buyers expected to live in their homes for 12 years, down from 15 years last year. For younger millennials and the silent generation, the expected duration was only 10 years, compared to 20 years for younger boomers.

However, debt continues to be a significant barrier for many attempting to buy a home, and both Generation X and younger boomers delayed purchasing a home for five years due to debt, the longest of all age groups. Younger millennials had the highest share of student debt at 45%, with a median amount of $28,000.

Despite these challenges, the increased demand for homes from the millennial generation provides a buffer against a housing market crash. This demand is expected to continue to grow as more of the millennial generation reaches the traditional first-time buyer age, and with this trend, the housing market may remain stable even in uncertain times.

When Will the Housing Market Crash?

The current state of the real estate housing market, which is currently adjusting to record-high inflation and higher interest rates, is giving real estate companies and experts a run for their money, as the continued pressure of these forces is causing difficulties for those who make future predictions. What are the housing market crash predictions? Before answering this question, it is crucial to comprehend what causes real estate markets to fall in the first place.

First, it is essential to recognize that housing markets do not suddenly crash. Multiple variables will exert pressure on a market over time, eventually leading to its collapse. When home values climb too rapidly, a housing bubble arises. When there's demand and the capacity to buy, it may increase. When there aren't enough houses for sale to match demand, competition drives up prices.

When a housing bubble expands and pressure builds, the housing market may crash. Interest rate hikes slow the economy. Demand and jobs might drop. Oversupply promotes a buyer's market and cheaper pricing. The real estate market might then fall or stall down. How can you know how awful and how fast it will go better? It depends on how sustainable development was before the slowdown and how serious the causes are.

Many concerns remain about the housing market. Critically, while one of the biggest drivers of home price growth has been the lack of supply, higher rates are holding back both potential sellers and new construction. As such, there is no relief in sight for an improvement in the housing supply and the sustainable housing market that would come with increased inventory.

As we enter summer 2023, many are wondering whether the housing market is headed for a crash. According to recent data from CoreLogic, the answer may be no, at least for the time being. While there are signs of a slowdown in the housing market's year-over-year growth rate, the overall data and forecasts suggest that a crash is unlikely in 2023.

Home prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and market indicators indicate a generally positive outlook. However, regional variations and factors like affordability, inventory shortages, and economic uncertainties should be closely monitored. As always, it is advisable for prospective buyers,

Home Price Trends

According to CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI), home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.1% in March 2023 compared to March 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices rose by 1.6% in March 2023 compared to February 2023. These figures indicate a positive growth trend in the housing market, showcasing the continued appreciation of home prices.

Price Forecast

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast suggests that home prices will continue to rise. It predicts a month-over-month increase of 0.8% from March 2023 to April 2023 and a year-over-year increase of 4.6% from March 2023 to March 2024. These forecasts indicate a positive outlook for the housing market, projecting further growth in the coming months.

Slowing Year-Over-Year Growth

Although home price growth has been consistent, there is evidence of a slowdown. In March 2023, U.S. home price growth fell to 3.1%, the lowest rate since 2012. This decline can be attributed to various factors such as the lack of affordability, inventory shortages, and a slower demand for higher-priced homes compared to median-priced homes. Additionally, concerns regarding inflation, job gains, wage growth, potential recession, and elevated interest rates have made some potential homebuyers hesitant.

Expert Opinions

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic HPI, highlights the mixed signals from housing markets across the country. While prices in many large metros have shown signs of improvement, the lack of inventory in this housing cycle and the influence of remote working conditions on home prices in certain areas have been noteworthy. Hepp suggests that housing markets will continue to experience declining growth over the spring and early summer before picking up later in 2023.

Regional Variances

The CoreLogic HPI reveals regional variations in home price growth. States such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Utah, and Washington experienced annual declines in home prices. On the other hand, Vermont, Indiana, and Florida saw the highest year-over-year increases in home prices, indicating diverse trends across different regions.

Where Can the Housing Market Crash in 2023?

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) plays a crucial role in assessing the health and stability of housing markets across the country. By analyzing various factors and trends, the MRI provides insights into the likelihood of price declines in specific regions.

One area that stands out is Provo-Orem, UT, which has been identified as having a very high risk (70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. This indicates a significant concern for potential homeowners and sellers in this region. It suggests that market conditions in Provo-Orem are such that there is a higher likelihood of prices decreasing compared to other areas.

Boise City, ID; Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL; Salt Lake City, UT; and Ogden-Clearfield, UT are also identified as regions with a high risk for price declines. This means that these areas have exhibited certain characteristics or market conditions that make them vulnerable to potential decreases in home prices.

These market indicators underscore the importance of cautious observation in these regions. Homebuyers and sellers in Provo-Orem, Boise City, Lakeland-Winter Haven, Salt Lake City, and Ogden-Clearfield should closely monitor the market conditions and make informed decisions based on the available data and expert advice.

It's worth noting that the high risk does not necessarily mean that a crash in home prices is imminent. It signifies a higher probability of price declines relative to other regions. Market conditions can change, and external factors such as economic shifts or policy changes can influence the housing market dynamics. Therefore, ongoing monitoring and consultation with real estate professionals who are familiar with the local market are crucial for making informed decisions.

If you are considering buying or selling a home in these high-risk areas, it may be prudent to evaluate your financial situation, consider the potential impact of a price decline, and consult with experts who can provide guidance tailored to your specific circumstances. This approach will help you navigate the market more effectively and make informed decisions based on the current conditions and potential risks associated with these regions.

A Housing Crash Not Coming, but Reduced Demand for Homes

The housing market has been severely impacted by rising interest rates as reflected in the increase in mortgage rates since 2022. This has led to a reduction in housing affordability, which has resulted in fewer people applying for mortgages. The demand for new and existing homes has dropped, home builders are pulling back on construction, and house prices have fallen from their recent peaks. The Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation have caused a significant decline in house price affordability.

Mortgage rates have been steadily climbing throughout 2022, with the rate on a 30-year mortgage averaging 6.36% in December, more than double the rate of 3.1% in December 2021. The typical monthly mortgage payment, based on the median home price and a 20% down payment, rose approximately 55% between the third quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. This has driven a collapse in demand to purchase homes. With mortgage rates exceeding 7% for the first time in two decades in October, and set to remain high, compared to 2021, the housing market will continue to face pressure due to affordability.

As demand has dried up, home sales have followed. Existing home sales are down nearly 34% compared with a year ago, while new home sales are down 15.3%. Falling sales have driven new home inventories up and now stand at 8.6 months' supply in September. This has led home builders to become bearish on the market. Both nationally, and for all four reported regions, the NAHB Builders Confidence Index has dropped well below 50.

The collapse in demand and sales is impacting home prices, which were down from summer peaks by over 1% nationally according to Moody's Analytics Home Price Index. The lower end of the market has been more resilient, barely falling since peaking over the summer compared to a decline of 1.6% for the top third of the market. Lower-priced homes are expected to perform better than higher-priced ones given the underlying demand from young adults and the dearth of supply of starter homes.

The Covid-19 pandemic altered consumer preferences for housing. Combined with historically low mortgage rates, buyers drove up house prices to record levels, leaving the market more than 25% overvalued relative to its long-run fundamental value. Based on Moody's Analytics estimates, the national housing market was more overvalued in Q2 2022 than it was during the 2006 Housing Bubble. These valuation levels are not sustainable. Prices are expected to continue to fall 5 to 10% from their recent peaks by the beginning of 2025. The most highly overvalued metro areas will see the largest declines, including Boise, Phoenix, Austin, and Nashville.

It is important to note that a 7.5% decline is only a correction and not a crash. House prices will not crate like they did during the Great Recession. We expect that the FHFA purchase-only HPI will fall back to late 2021 levels in early 2025. Only this year's gains will be wiped out by declines. In 2025, when the next low is reached, we expect prices to be nearly 30% higher than they were at the beginning of 2020.

The underlying need for housing remains strong given current demographics, with recent estimates of a 1.5 million unit housing deficit given expectations for household formations and current vacancy rates. Further, despite recent anecdotal evidence of demand destruction through multigenerational and roommate living arrangements, vacancy rates as of November still indicate that inventory is tight.

For sellers, this could mean a potential decrease in their property value, while buyers may find this a good time to enter the market, as lower prices may provide better affordability. However, buyers should still exercise caution and not rush into a purchase, as the housing market is unpredictable, and prices may continue to fall in the short term. They should also ensure they can comfortably afford their mortgage payments, especially with interest rates remaining high.

Homeowners who are looking to sell their homes may need to be patient and may have to price their homes lower than expected to attract buyers. They should also be prepared for a longer time on the market due to the current slowdown in demand.

Overall, the housing market's decline is not unexpected given the rise in interest rates and overvalued prices. The correction is necessary for the market to return to sustainable levels, and it is not a sign of a housing market crash. As the underlying need for housing remains strong, the market is likely to rebound in the long term, and prices are expected to rise again in the future.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the housing market may be experiencing a slowdown in year-over-year growth, the data and forecasts do not suggest an imminent crash in 2023. Home prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and market indicators provide a generally positive outlook.

The US housing market is going through a crucial period in 2023 with conflicting opinions on the future of the market. Some analysts fear a housing market crash, while others anticipate a more balanced market with single-digit annual appreciation. Although the market is experiencing changes, most real estate professionals do not believe that it will crash or trigger a recession.

The mortgage sector has taken action to prevent a repeat of the Great Recession, and the majority of bad mortgages have been eliminated. The housing shortage is too severe, and the majority of Americans are hoping to avoid another 18 months of hardship. Housing demand from Millennials and Gen Z is also expected to remain strong. While there may be a decline in demand and the pandemic-induced housing boom may slow down somewhat, there are no signs of a housing market crashing again in 2023.

Sources:

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/recession-will-housing-market-survive/
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/
https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/research/q42022-the-outlook-for-the-housing-market/
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/will-housing-market-crash/
https://www.zillow.com/research/zhpe-q2-2022-not-a-bubble-31093/
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210715_quarterly_economic_forecast.page
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx

Housing Bubble Meaning: Causes, Signs, and Impact

May 21, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

The housing market has always been a subject of interest for many people, especially buyers, sellers, investors, and professionals. However, the housing market is not always predictable, and one of the reasons for this is housing bubbles. A housing bubble occurs when property prices increase rapidly, followed by a sudden decrease, and it can have significant impacts on the real estate market and the broader economy. It's important to understand what a housing bubble is and how it can affect the housing market.

When housing bubbles burst, they can lead to significant economic consequences, such as the Great Recession of 2008. Many people lost their homes, and the stock market plummeted. Therefore, understanding the root causes of a housing bubble and recognizing the signs of its formation is crucial for individuals and policymakers alike.

What Causes a Housing Bubble?

A housing bubble can occur due to various factors, such as low-interest rates, easy credit availability, and speculation. When interest rates are low, it becomes cheaper to borrow money, which leads to an increase in demand for homes. This demand leads to an increase in property prices, which can create a self-fulfilling cycle of rising prices, as people buy houses purely as an investment.

Speculation is another significant factor that contributes to the formation of a housing bubble. When people expect property prices to increase, they buy properties with the sole intention of selling them in the future for a higher price. This creates an artificial demand for houses, which leads to a rise in prices, even when there is no real demand for housing.

2000s United States Housing Bubble

Easy credit availability is also a major factor in the formation of a housing bubble. In some cases, lenders may be willing to lend to borrowers who do not have a strong credit history or have limited income. This can result in borrowers taking on more debt than they can afford, leading to a rise in demand for housing.

Moreover, in some cases, the government may also play a role in the formation of a housing bubble. For instance, in the United States, the government's policies to encourage homeownership, such as tax incentives and subsidies for mortgages, led to an increase in demand for housing, which contributed to the formation of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s.

Another factor that can contribute to a housing bubble is speculation in the real estate market. Real estate investors who buy properties with the expectation of selling them for a higher price in the future can drive up demand and prices. In some cases, these investors may not even have any intention of using the property as a primary residence or for rental purposes.

In addition to these factors, economic conditions can also contribute to the formation of a housing bubble. For instance, in periods of economic growth and low unemployment, people may have more disposable income, which can lead to an increase in demand for housing. This can lead to a rise in prices, which can create a self-fulfilling cycle, as people continue to buy homes purely as an investment.

Moreover, in some cases, the formation of a housing bubble may be exacerbated by external factors, such as global economic conditions or geopolitical risks. For example, in the mid-2000s, the housing bubble in the United States was fueled by low-interest rates and easy credit availability, but the collapse of the US housing market also had ripple effects on the global economy, leading to a worldwide financial crisis.

Therefore, a housing bubble can occur due to a combination of factors, including low-interest rates, easy credit availability, speculation, government policies, economic conditions, and external factors. Understanding these factors and monitoring them closely can help policymakers and regulators prevent or mitigate the formation of a housing bubble, which can have significant economic consequences.

Signs of a Housing Bubble

There are several signs that indicate a housing bubble, such as rapid price increases, high levels of debt, and a rise in the number of speculative buyers. In the past, housing bubbles have led to significant economic problems, such as the Great Recession of 2008. Some historical examples of housing bubbles include the US housing bubble of the mid-2000s, which led to the Great Recession, and the Japanese housing bubble of the 1980s, which caused a long period of economic stagnation in Japan.

In addition to rapid price increases, high levels of debt, and a rise in speculative buyers, there are other signs that can indicate a housing bubble. One such sign is an increase in the number of new housing developments and construction projects. This can lead to an oversupply of housing, which can eventually lead to a decrease in demand and a drop in prices.

Another sign of a housing bubble is an increase in the number of people buying homes as investments, rather than as primary residences. When investors buy homes solely for the purpose of making a profit, it can create an artificial demand for housing and drive up prices. It's important to keep in mind that not all rapid increases in property prices are indicative of a housing bubble. In some cases, price increases may be driven by genuine demand for housing due to factors such as population growth, job growth, and a lack of available housing.

However, if multiple signs of a housing bubble are present, it's important to be cautious and consider the potential risks. By understanding the signs of a housing bubble and being aware of historical examples, individuals and policymakers can take steps to prevent or mitigate the impact of a housing bubble on the economy and the real estate market.

The Impact of a Housing Bubble

A housing bubble can have a significant impact on the real estate market and the broader economy. When property prices increase rapidly, it becomes difficult for first-time homebuyers to enter the market, leading to a decrease in demand for housing. This can cause a sudden drop in property prices, which can lead to a significant economic downturn.

Moreover, the impact of a housing bubble extends beyond the real estate market. When property prices decrease, homeowners' equity is eroded, which can lead to a decrease in consumer spending. This, in turn, can lead to a reduction in economic growth and a rise in unemployment.

The impact of a housing bubble can be far-reaching and long-lasting. As property prices fall, homeowners may find themselves underwater, meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. This can lead to a wave of foreclosures, which can destabilize neighborhoods and local housing markets.

The effects of a housing bubble can also spill over into the broader economy. As consumer spending decreases, businesses may see a decline in sales and revenue, leading to layoffs and higher unemployment rates. Additionally, the financial sector may be hit hard as mortgage defaults increase, leading to a ripple effect throughout the economy.

It's important to note that not all housing price increases are indicative of a bubble. In some cases, prices may simply be reflecting underlying economic fundamentals, such as population growth or a strong job market. However, it's important for policymakers, investors, and consumers to be aware of the signs of a housing bubble and take steps to mitigate the risk of a sudden collapse in prices.

Preventing a Housing Bubble

Policymakers and regulators can take several measures to prevent or mitigate the effects of a housing bubble. One of the most effective ways is to regulate lending standards and credit availability. By limiting the availability of credit, policymakers can prevent people from taking on excessive amounts of debt, which can lead to a housing bubble.

Individuals can also take measures to protect themselves from the impacts of a housing bubble. For example, homeowners can avoid taking on excessive amounts of debt and refrain from speculative buying. Homebuyers should also be cautious when buying a property and avoid buying a house purely as an investment.

Another measure to prevent a housing bubble is to implement effective regulation of the real estate industry. This can include measures such as requiring real estate agents to provide accurate and transparent information about the properties they are selling and ensuring that appraisals are conducted objectively and independently. Policymakers can also monitor and regulate the activities of property developers and investors to prevent speculative behavior that can lead to a housing bubble.

Another important factor to prevent a housing bubble is maintaining a stable and healthy economy. Economic growth, low unemployment, and stable inflation rates are all important factors in preventing a housing bubble. When the economy is healthy, demand for housing is more stable, and prices are less likely to experience sudden fluctuations.

Additionally, policymakers can implement measures to increase the supply of affordable housing, which can help prevent a housing bubble. When there is a shortage of affordable housing, prices can become inflated, leading to a housing bubble. By increasing the supply of affordable housing, policymakers can help ensure that property prices remain stable and prevent the formation of a housing bubble.

It is also important for policymakers to monitor the real estate market closely and identify signs of a potential housing bubble. This can include monitoring housing price growth rates, the number of homes being built, and the levels of debt being taken on by homebuyers. By identifying these signs early, policymakers can take steps to prevent a housing bubble from forming.

Conclusion

In conclusion, a housing bubble occurs when property prices increase rapidly, followed by a sudden decrease, and it can have significant impacts on the real estate market and the broader economy. Understanding the phenomenon is crucial for real estate buyers, sellers, investors, and professionals. By being aware of the factors that contribute to a housing bubble, signs to look out for, and measures to take, individuals and organizations can make informed decisions and minimize their risks.

It is important to note that while housing bubbles can result in significant losses and financial instability, they are not inevitable, and policies can be put in place to prevent or mitigate their occurrence. The key is to maintain a balance between supply and demand, regulate lending practices, monitor market trends, and promote sustainable growth in the real estate sector. With proper planning and management, the housing market can be a stable and profitable investment for all stakeholders involved.

References:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/housing_bubble.asp
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/housing-bubble-5186717#
https://hbr.org/2010/06/how-to-survive-a-bubble

Real Estate Housing Market Predictions & Forecast 2023

May 15, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Experts are divided into the housing market predictions and forecasts for 2023. While there is no consensus on whether the historically tight housing market will loosen or not, the market has cooled significantly from its previous highs. Despite predictions of a housing market crash comparable to the Great Depression due to the pandemic, the market has remained stable. However, home prices are forecasted to continue rising at a slower rate, while home sales may continue to decline due to supply-demand imbalances.

While higher mortgage rates and recession fears have cooled the market from its spring highs, other factors may impact the market's pace and favorability for buyers or sellers. The market is shifting away from sellers to more balanced conditions. Buyers remain interested, keeping the market somewhat competitive, especially for attractive, well-priced homes.

The positive outlook is that most real estate firms do not predict a financial or foreclosure crisis on the scale of 2008, but they do expect housing fundamentals to return to the mean. Some of that moderation will be brought about by growing salaries, while some will be brought about by declining home prices. The housing market won't be overvalued after this correction is over.

ALSO READ: Real Estate Housing Market Trends for February 2023

The direction of mortgage rates in 2023 is likely to affect the decline in home values. Interest rates have a significant impact on the real estate market, as they influence mortgage payments, demand for housing, and housing prices. While home prices are still on the rise, the rate of growth has slowed down from earlier in the year. Despite this, buyers remain interested in the market, resulting in a somewhat competitive market, especially for well-priced and attractive homes.

However, there are still many concerns regarding the housing market, particularly regarding the shortage of supply and rising interest rates. The shortage of supply has been one of the main drivers of home price growth, but rising interest rates are discouraging potential sellers and new construction. This means that there is little hope for improvement in the housing supply and a sustainable housing market that would result from an increase in inventory.

The significant increase in mortgage rates since last year has made the already expensive housing market even less affordable. Home prices experienced a meteoric rise during the pandemic due to factors such as high demand, low supply, and record-low mortgage rates. However, the sudden increase in mortgage rates has dampened the market's growth and affordability, making it difficult for buyers to enter the market. Let us continue to find out about the latest housing market predictions and forecasts.

Real Estate Housing Market Predictions By Experts for 2023

There is little consensus among economists, mortgage firms, banks, and real estate firms regarding whether the historically tight U.S. housing market will reverse course in 2023. It appears that the US housing market is likely to experience a decline in home prices in 2023. However, the severity of this decline will likely depend on various factors, including the extent of the housing supply shortage, economic conditions, and location-specific factors. Let's take a detailed look at some of the notable predictions made by top companies in the industry.

Company	Optimistic/Pessimistic Market Predictions
Fannie Mae	Pessimistic
National Association of Realtors (NAR)	Optimistic
Goldman Sachs	Pessimistic
Wells Fargo	Pessimistic
KPMG LLP	Pessimistic
Freddie Mac	Mixed
CoreLogic	Mixed

According to Fannie Mae, it appears that the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle in 2023. The organization expects both new and existing home sales volumes to drop by 5.4% and 19.2%, respectively, after significant drops in 2022. This will likely occur due to high mortgage rates, which Fannie Mae believes will continue to deter potential buyers. Furthermore, the number of available homes on the market will remain low, as most homeowners with low fixed mortgage rates will not want to trade them in for higher rates, thereby limiting inventory levels.

Fannie Mae also expects home prices to continue to decline in 2023 and 2024. Following a 2.5% drop in the second half of 2022, the organization predicts a further 4.2% decline in 2023 and a 2.3% decline in 2024. However, this correction is considered mild, as national home prices are still projected to be up 29% by the end of 2024 compared to March 2020 levels. It is important to note that regional variations may occur in price movements despite national price trends.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home prices are expected to increase by 1.2% this year. This projection indicates a continued upward trend in the housing market. Additionally, NAR predicts that mortgage rates will plateau at about 6.4%.

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have both recently made forecasts for the US housing market in 2023, and their predictions suggest a decline in home prices. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a more significant drop, with a projected decline of 7.6% from the peak, while Wells Fargo predicts a more modest decrease of 5.5%. Both banks attribute the anticipated drop to the current housing supply shortage, which has been a persistent issue in recent years.

It's worth noting that Wells Fargo also highlighted that there may be significant discrepancies in the extent of the price fluctuations depending on the desirability of a particular location. This could mean that some areas may experience larger price drops than others, depending on factors such as local economic conditions, population growth, and housing supply and demand dynamics.

The accounting firm KPMG LLP's forecast for the housing market in 2023 looks bleak. Existing home sales are predicted to drop by 23% from 2022, which would be a decrease not seen since 2007. The drop is expected to be driven by single-family home sales due to the limited supply and high prices. However, condos are predicted to fare better.

The number of purchase applications has dropped by over 40% from a year ago in February. Buyers are betting on rate cuts by the Fed as their mortgages reset in 2024, and they are using adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get into the few homes that are listed. Despite the spike in rates and erosion in affordability, millennials still make up over half of the purchase applications.

The share of those who have locked into ultra-low rates or paid off their mortgages has surged. Those homeowners have a natural hedge against escalating shelter costs and some have chosen to rent out their homes to cash in on the demand for single-family rentals, further constraining the stock of homes.

Home prices are predicted to fall between 7% and 10% depending on the measure, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index expected to drop another 8% in 2023, bringing prices to the still elevated levels of late 2021. Despite the rise in demand for rentals, rents have fallen more rapidly than home prices, and the Fed is counting on those declines to cool inflation. However, the tight labor market may place a floor under how much rents fall in the hottest markets, hence the Fed's focus on the labor market.

According to Freddie Mac's first-quarter housing outlook pulse survey of 2023, market confidence in the housing market has rebounded somewhat quarter-over-quarter, despite payment concerns remaining unchanged among both homeowners and renters. Specifically, 43% of respondents are confident the housing market will remain strong over the next year, up 9 percentage points from last quarter but down 15 percentage points compared to last year.

However, concerns about housing affordability persist, with 59% of renters and 28% of homeowners spending more than 30% of their monthly income on housing. Additionally, over half of the respondents (54%) expressed concerns about making housing payments, with 70% of renters and 44% of homeowners feeling this way.

In terms of market activity, only 18% of respondents indicated they are likely to buy a home in the next six months, while 14% of homeowners say they are likely to sell in the same period. About 16% of homeowners plan to refinance in the next six months. Overall, while market confidence has rebounded somewhat, concerns over housing affordability and payment continue to persist.

According to the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report, national home prices increased year-over-year by 5.5% in January 2023 compared with January 2022. However, on a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% in January 2023 compared with December 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast suggests that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from January 2023 to February 2023 and increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.1% from January 2023 to January 2024.

While some states like Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Washington, D.C. saw annual declines in home prices, other states like Florida, Maine, and South Carolina saw significant year-over-year increases. Miami, in particular, experienced the highest increase in home prices at 17.3% year over year.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) predicts that Bellingham, WA is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months, along with other cities like Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL; Salem, OR; and Tacoma-Lakewood, WA.

Overall, while their national housing market may experience a slight decline in the short term, the forecast suggests that it will pick up again in the long run, with some states and cities continuing to experience significant growth. However, some areas face a risk of a decline in home prices in the next year.

Freddie Mac's Economic & Housing Research Group in its latest forecast to date has predicted mortgage rates dropping from an average of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The government-sponsored enterprise forecasts that home sales activity will bottom at around 5 million units at the end of 2023. Falling from 7 million to 5 million would be a decline of about 30% and put the contraction in home sales in line with other historical periods when interest rates increased.

As housing market activity continues to contract, Freddie Mac expects that it will lead to a continued increase in the months’ supply of homes available for sale from historically low levels last year. The loosening of the once incredibly tight for-sale inventory removes the intense upward pressure on home prices of the past two years. While fewer sales are increasing the months’ supply, that is partially offset by fewer new listings as high mortgage rates disincentivize existing homeowners from moving up or downsizing.

They expect house prices to decline modestly, but the downside risks are elevated. As the labor market cools off, housing demand will remain weak in 2023, potentially resulting in declines in prices next year. However, home price forecast uncertainty is wide due to interest rate volatility and the potential of a recession on the horizon.

Home purchase mortgage applications point to a continued contraction in home sales activity. Given the house price and home sales forecast, they estimate home purchase mortgage originations to be $1.9 trillion in 2022, slowing to $1.6 trillion in 2023. With mortgage rates expected to remain elevated, they forecast refinance activity to slow with refinance originations declining from $2.8 trillion in 2021 to $747 billion in 2022 and $310 billion in 2023. Overall, their forecast is that total originations will decline from the high of $4.8 trillion in 2021 to $2.6 trillion in 2022 and $1.9 trillion in 2023.

Housing Market Predictions For the Next Few Years

The housing market is far better than it was a decade ago. During the two years of the pandemic, the housing industry experienced a boom, with the most significant annual increase in single-family house values and rentals, historically low foreclosure rates, and the highest number of home sales in 15 years, totaling 6.9 million for the entire year of 2021. Over those two years, national home prices increased by around 33%.

The market was driven by record-low borrowing rates in 2020 and 2021, as well as a supply constraint due to underbuilding. The enormous demand from first-time buyers is almost as important as the limited new supply. The housing market is also being driven by exceptionally favorable age demographic trends. But soaring interest rates are making mortgage payments more expensive since last year and cooling the hot real estate market.

The overarching concern is whether or not the housing market will crash, and if so, when. The simple answer is that it will not crash anytime soon and we certainly don't see a housing market crash coming in 2023. Rising rates are cooling the market as some expected but the prices are still rising at a slower rate.

The current trends and the forecast for the next 12 to 24 months clearly show that most likely the housing market is expected to see a positive home price appreciation. In recent years, the price of homes has climbed dramatically. Many prospective buyers, especially those with limited financial resources, are eager to hear whether and when home prices will become more accessible.

Here is when housing market prices are going to crash. While this may appear to be an oversimplification, this is how markets operate. When demand is satisfied, prices fall. In many housing markets, there is an extreme demand for properties at the moment, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective buyers. Home construction has been increasing in recent years, but they are so far behind catching up. Thus, to see significant declines in home prices, we would need to see significant declines in buyer demand.

Demand declines primarily as a result of rising interest rates or a slowing economy in general. Ultimately, for rising interest rates to destroy home values, we'd need substantially less demand and far more housing supply than we presently have. Even if price growth moderates this year, it is extremely improbable that home prices will crash. Thus, there will be no crash in home prices; rather, there will be a pullback, which is normal for any asset class. The home price growth in the United States is forecasted to just “moderate” in 2023.

Affordability will be a concern for many, as home prices will continue to rise, if at a slower pace than the previous year. With 10 years having now passed since the Great Recession, the U.S. has been in the longest period of continued economic expansion on record. The housing market has been along for much of the ride and continues to benefit greatly from the overall health of the economy.

However, hot economies eventually cool, and with that, hot housing markets move more toward balance. Housing market forecasts are essentially informed guesses based on existing patterns. While the real estate pace of last year appears to be reverting to seasonality as we enter 2023, demand is not waning.

Increasing interest rates will almost certainly have a greater impact on the national housing market in 2023 than any other factor. While sellers remain in an advantageous position, price stability and the continuation of competitive interest rates may provide some much-needed relief to buyers this year. Housing supply is and will likely remain a challenge for some time as labor and material shortages, as well as general supply chain issues, delay new construction.

The housing market will continue to cool down, but not crash. Record-low borrowing rates, supply constraints, and first-time buyers drove prices up, but prices are expected to appreciate slower or remain flat for the next 12-24 months. Rising interest rates may lead to a pullback in prices and improve affordability. Nonetheless, it remains a concern as prices make it hard for some buyers to enter the market. Overall, the market will remain strong, but hot markets will move toward balance.

While the national housing market won't crash, several regional markets may see a decline in home prices in the coming years due to rising interest rates. Higher interest rates could lead to a decrease in affordability, which may result in fewer buyers in certain areas. As a result, regions that were previously experiencing rapid price growth may experience a slowdown or even a decline in home prices. However, it is worth mentioning that this would likely be a temporary setback, as long-term demographic and economic trends are still in favor of the housing market.

References

https://www.realtor.com/research/
https://www.realtor.com/research/blog/
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates/
https://www.blackknightinc.com/
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast
https://www.kpmg.us/insights/2023/march-2023-economic-compass.html
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/
https://www.zillow.com/research/daily-market-pulse-26666/
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx
https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/how-millennials-are-changing-housing-market

Housing Market Crash: What Happens to Homeowners if it Crashes?

April 5, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

How Does a Market Crash Affect Homeowners?

If home values fall quickly, purchasers may find themselves with underwater mortgages, which means they must either stay in the house until the market recovers or sell and lose money. Homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes were worth and can no longer just flip their way out of their homes if they cannot make the new, higher payments. Instead, they will lose their homes to foreclosure and often file for bankruptcy in the process. The housing crash begins to take its toll on homeowners and the real estate market.

The housing market has encountered significant obstacles over the previous century, but none, with the exception of the Great Depression of 1929, contributed to the decline in home prices that occurred during the Great Recession of 2007. Neither the 20 percent interest rates of the early 1980s nor the devastation of the savings and loan sector in the early 1990s led to a similar drop in property values.

<<<Also Read: Will the Housing Market Crash in 2023? >>>

It is also worth remembering that not all economic downturns chill the property market. In reality, throughout the 2001 recession, the housing market and house demand remained strong despite the economic slump. Throughout the course of the last century, the housing market has been subjected to a number of significant obstacles; but, with the exception of 1929's Great Depression, none of these problems have resulted in a decline in home values on par with that of 2007's Great Recession.

The interest rates of 20 percent in the early 1980s and the devastation of the savings and loan business in the early 1990s did not lead to a similar drop in the value of homes. It is also important to note that the housing market is not always affected negatively by recessions. Despite the fact that the economy was in a slump during the recession that began in 2001, the housing market and demand for homes continued to be healthy.

The previous housing bubble in the United States in the mid-2000s was caused in part by another bubble, this time in the technology industry. It was intimately tied to, and some believe was the cause of, the 2007-2008 financial crisis. During the late 1990s dot-com bubble, many new technology companies' stock was purchased quickly. Speculators bought up the market capitalizations of even firms that had yet to create earnings. By 2000, the Nasdaq peaked, and when the tech bubble burst, many high-flying equities plummeted.

After the dot-com bubble bust and stock market crisis, speculators fled to real estate. In response to the technology bust, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered and maintained interest rates. This rush of money and credit met with government programs to encourage homeownership and financial market developments that improved real estate asset liquidity. More people bought and sold homes as home prices soared.

What Happened to Homeowners When The Housing Market Crashed?

In the next six years, the homeownership craze developed as interest rates fell and lending standards were relaxed. An increase in subprime borrowing began in 1999. Fannie Mae made a determined attempt to make home loans more accessible to borrowers with weaker credit scores and funds than are generally needed by lenders. The intention was to assist everyone in achieving the American dream of homeownership.

Since these customers were deemed high-risk, their mortgages had unconventional terms, such as higher interest rates and variable payments. In 2005 and 2006, 20% of mortgages went to persons who didn't meet regular lending conditions. They were called Subprime borrowers. Subprime lending has a higher risk, given the lower credit rating of borrowers.

75% of subprime loans were adjustable-rate mortgages with low initial rates and a scheduled reset after two to three years. Government promotion of homeownership prompted banks to slash rates and credit criteria, sparking a house-buying frenzy that drove the median home price up 55% from 2000 to 2007. The US homeownership rate had increased to an all-time high of 69.2% in 2004.

During that same period, the stock market began to rebound, and by 2006 interest rates started to tick upward. Due to rising property prices, investors stopped buying homes because the risk premium was too great. Subprime lending was a major contributor to this increase in homeownership rates and in the overall demand for housing, which drove prices higher.

Borrowers who would not be able to make the higher payments once the initial grace period ended, were planning to refinance their mortgages after a year or two of appreciation. As a result of the depreciating housing prices, borrowers’ ability to refinance became more difficult. Borrowers who found themselves unable to escape higher monthly payments by refinancing began to default.

There was an increase in the number of foreclosures and properties available for sale as more borrowers defaulted on their mortgages. A drop in housing prices resulted, in lowering the equity of homeowners even more. Because of the fall in mortgage payments, the value of mortgage-backed securities dropped, which hurt banks' overall value and health. The problem was rooted in this self-perpetuating cycle.

By September 2008, average US property prices had fallen by more than 20% since their peak in mid-2006. Because of the significant and unexpected drop in house values, many borrowers now have zero or negative equity in their houses, which means their properties are worth less than their mortgages. As of March 2008, an estimated 8.8 million borrowers – 10.8 percent of all homeowners – were underwater on their mortgages, a figure that is expected to have climbed to 12 million by November 2008.

By September 2010, 23 percent of all homes in the United States were worth less than the mortgage loan. Borrowers in this circumstance have the incentive to default on their mortgages because a mortgage is normally non-recourse debt backed by real estate. As foreclosure rates rise, so does the inventory of available homes for sale.

In 2007, the number of new residences sold was 26.4 percent lower than the previous year. The inventory of unsold new houses in January 2008 was 9.8 times the sales volume in December 2007, the highest value of this ratio since 1981. Furthermore, about four million existing residences were for sale, with around 2.2 million of them being unoccupied.

The inability of Homeowners To Make Their Mortgage Payments

The inability of homeowners to make their mortgage payments was primarily due to adjustable-rate mortgage resetting, borrowers overextending, predatory lending, and speculation. Once property prices began to collapse in 2006, record amounts of household debt accumulated over the decades. Consumers started paying off debt, which decreases their spending and slows the economy for a prolonged period of time until debt levels decreased.

Housing speculation using high levels of mortgage debt drove many investors with prime-quality mortgages to default and enter foreclosure on investment properties when housing prices fell. As prices fell, more homeowners faced default or foreclosure. House prices are projected to fall further until the inventory of unsold properties (an example of excess supply) returns to normal levels. According to a January 2011 estimate, property prices in the United States fell by 26 percent from their high in June 2006 to November 2010, more than the 25.9 percent decrease experienced during the Great Depression from 1928 to 1933.

There were roughly 4 million finalized foreclosures in the United States between September 2008 and September 2012. In September 2012, over 1.4 million properties, or 3.3 percent of all mortgaged homes, were in some stage of foreclosure, up from 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, in September 2011. In September 2012, 57,000 houses went into foreclosure, down from 83,000 the previous September but still far over the 2000-2006 monthly average of 21,000 completed foreclosures.

A variety of voluntary private and government-administered or supported programs were implemented during 2007–2009 to assist homeowners with case-by-case mortgage assistance, to mitigate the foreclosure crisis engulfing the U.S. During late 2008, major banks and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac established moratoriums (delays) on foreclosures, to give homeowners time to work towards refinancing In 2009, over $75 billion of the package was specifically allocated to programs that help struggling homeowners. This program is referred to as the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan.

Is There a Housing Bubble in 2022?

When a new generation of homebuyers enters the market, housing bubbles often arise naturally as a result of population expansion. As a result of this expansion, the demand for housing is expected to rise. Speculators, excellent economic circumstances, low-interest rates, and a wide variety of financing alternatives are all elements that will lead to an increase in home values. Increased demand drives up costs because of the building time lag. Any time housing prices diverge significantly from demographically-based organic demand, the broader economy is at risk of entering a state of crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic did not slow home prices at all. Instead, it skyrocketed. In September 2020, they were a record $226,800, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to the National Association of Realtors, the sales rate hit 5.86 million houses in July 2020, rising to 6.86 million by October 2020, surpassing the pre-pandemic record. Many people were taking advantage of the low-interest rates to purchase either residential properties or income-based flats that appeared to be inexpensive.

Home prices rose 18.8% in 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, the biggest increase in 34 years of data and substantially ahead of the 2020s 10.4% gain. The median home sales price was $346,900 in 2021, up 16.9% from 2020, and the highest on record going back to 1999, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home sales had the strongest year since 2006, with 6.12 million homes sold, up 8.5% from the year before.

As speculators entered the market, home prices skyrocketed, exacerbating the housing market bubble. Now it reaches a time when home prices are no longer affordable to buyers. Rising prices make properties unsustainable, causing them to be overpriced. In other words, pricing increases. Low inventory, fierce competition, and large price increases have harmed purchasers since 2020, but quickly rising mortgage rates are making it much more difficult to find an affordable house.

As prices become unsustainable and interest rates rise, purchasers withdraw. Borrowers are discouraged from taking out loans when interest rates rise. On the other side, house construction will be affected as well; costs will rise, and the market supply of housing will shrink as a result. In contrast to a sudden jump, a sustained rise in interest rates will inflict little damage on the housing market.

Rising rent costs and mortgage rates, which increased from an average of just 3.2% at the beginning of the year to 5.81 percent by mid-June, have increased the cost of housing, pricing many individuals out of the market. This has resulted in a decline in house sales since an increasing number of individuals are unable to buy homes at the present inflated prices. According to NAR, existing-home sales declined for the fourth consecutive month in May, falling 3.4% from April and 8.6% from the same period last year.

Given the relative scarcity of available homes, the majority of analysts concur that a decline in housing prices is improbable. In addition to rising mortgage rates and subsequently less demand, a downturn might exert downward pressure on home prices. Despite many similarities to the housing bubble of 2008, the present housing market is quite different from it.

Homeowners with mortgages are not at a high risk of default, housing values are mostly determined by supply and demand rather than speculation, and lending rates continue to rise. Accordingly, the concept of a housing market crash is deemed improbable by a number of industry professionals. Many analysts believe that sky-high mortgage rates and the associated drop in housing demand will moderate the increase of home prices rather than result in any significant reversal in prices or a crash, which is generally defined as a widespread drop in home prices.

However, in the event that a more widespread recession hits the economy of the United States, the conditions might be created for a little decline in housing values. A deeper and more widespread economic downturn is likely to prompt a greater number of homeowners to sell their homes than would be the case otherwise. Because of the rise in available inventory, housing prices could experience some leveling out as a result.

It is also possible that a recession may just serve to limit the increase of property values, which is what many people anticipate would happen if interest rates continue to climb. However, it is still challenging to bring prices down because there are only limited properties available for purchase. The number of people applying for mortgages has already dropped by more than 50 percent since this time last year. It is not unrealistic to foresee a further decline in home demand given the impending implementation of additional rate increases. This will serve to rebalance the housing market, which is now squeezed, but it won't necessarily bring it to the point where it crashes.

References

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis#
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/subprime-market-2008.asp
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/will-housing-market-crash/
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-prices/
https://investorplace.com/2022/06/what-would-cause-the-housing-market-to-crash-in-2022/
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/

Real Estate Investors Can Profit in a Down Market

February 14, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One of the most exciting things about being a real estate investor is knowing what markets will produce the greatest long-term returns – especially while in the middle of a challenging housing market.

In a down market, savvy real estate investors are eager to find out how they can best leverage their resources. And expert forecasts are some of the best tools they can use to back up their strategies. A good example comes from real estate consulting firm John Burns Real Estate (JBRE), which has recently predicted that homeownership will fall from 70.0 percent to 62.1 percent by 2015 due to a weak economy, weak consumer confidence, limited mortgage availability, higher rates of foreclosures and short sales, and other factors.

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