Housing Market Forecast Archives

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: Housing Market Forecast

September 26, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

In this blog post, we'll be discussing what experts are forecasting for the United States housing market in 2023. Will house prices go down in 2023? There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the housing market in the United States will likely vary depending on location and other factors. However, some experts believe that the market will decline in 2023, while others believe that home prices will rise.

Most experts in the housing industry predict less buyer demand, lower prices, and higher borrowing rates. Rate increases, along with a shortage of availability, have pushed many purchasers to the sidelines. Home prices may fall slightly, but not drastically as they did in 2008. Some believe that the housing market will continue to outperform compared to the pre-pandemic.

The housing market is always in flux, and predictions for the future can be challenging to make. However, experts are making some educated guesses about what we can expect in the coming years. Here's a look at some housing market predictions for 2023. According to a Forbes Advisor article, home prices are expected to continue to come down slowly, making it difficult for many homebuyers to access affordable housing.

ALSO READ: Lastest National Housing Market Trends

However, the article notes that there may be some relief for buyers in the form of more inventory becoming available on the market. This may help to level out the playing field, making it easier for more people to find a home that they can afford. Another prediction from US News & World Report is that the housing market will experience a relatively shallow recession that stops and starts in 2023.

This prediction assumes that inflation will be under control by 2024, allowing mortgage rates to remain stable. In this scenario, home prices are expected to rise, but at a slower pace than they have been in recent years. Zillow also has some predictions for the housing market in 2023. One of the most positive is that housing affordability is expected to improve slightly. While high monthly mortgage costs and low inventory will continue to be a challenge, there are signs that conditions may stabilize.

This could be good news for first-time homebuyers, who have been struggling to find affordable homes in recent years. Another Zillow prediction is that home prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace. This could be due to a number of factors, including higher interest rates, more inventory becoming available on the market, and a slowdown in the rate of job growth. While this may make it more difficult for some buyers to afford a home, it could also make it easier for others to find a property that fits their budget.

Finally, some experts predict that the housing market will continue to be shaped by changing demographics. For example, as baby boomers continue to retire, they may be more likely to downsize their homes, creating more opportunities for younger buyers to enter the market. Additionally, millennials are expected to continue to be a driving force in the housing market, with many of them reaching their peak homebuying years in the coming years.

Of course, these predictions are just that – predictions. The housing market can be unpredictable, and unforeseen factors can always come into play. However, these educated guesses can give us a general idea of what we can expect in the coming years. If you're planning to buy or sell a home in 2023, it may be helpful to keep these predictions in mind as you make your plans.

Zillow, the leading online real estate company, released its latest home value and sales forecast in August 2023. As the housing market experiences dynamic shifts, Zillow's predictions offer valuable perspectives on what lies ahead.

Home Value Appreciation in 2023

Zillow's forecast projects a noteworthy 5.8% appreciation in home values throughout 2023. Despite the ongoing presence of elevated mortgage rates, the limited availability of homes for sale is a driving factor behind the upward trajectory of home prices. This continuous trend demonstrates the resilience and strength of the real estate market in the face of challenges.

Inventory Constraints and Price Pressures

The prevailing shortage of homes available for purchase is contributing to the persistent rise in home prices. Even as mortgage rates maintain their higher levels, the tight inventory conditions exert substantial pressure on the housing market. Zillow's forecast, revised this month, predicts that the national Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) will conclude 2023 with a 5.8% increase from its starting point. This revision is an upward adjustment from the previous month's estimate of 5.5% growth.

Projected Growth from July 2023 to July 2024

Looking ahead, Zillow anticipates a continued ascent in typical home values. The forecast estimates a rise of 6.5% from July 2023 to July 2024. This projection underscores the resilience of the housing market and its potential for sustained growth, even in the face of complex economic factors.

Impact on Sales Volume

The scarcity of available homes for sale has led to increased competition among buyers. In July 2023, the number of listed homes was just over half of what it was in the same month of 2019. Additionally, 29% fewer new listings entered the market in July compared to the pre-pandemic norm. This scarcity has resulted in homes under contract going pending in a mere 12 days – a notable difference from the 2018 and 2019 averages.

The combination of tight inventory conditions and elevated mortgage rates is expected to continue influencing sales volume in the foreseeable future. Zillow's projection for 2023 foresees 4.2 million home sales, reflecting a 17% decline from the previous year. While this decline may raise concerns, it aligns with historical patterns and speaks to the broader economic landscape.

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Drop Most by July 2024

Some regional markets are projected to see home price declines. In their latest forecast, they now predict that home values will fall only in 19 of the nation's 894 regional housing markets between July 2023 and July 2024. Houma, a city located in southern Louisiana, tops the list with an expected decline of 2.9% in home prices by July 2024.

Metro Area	Change in Values
Houma, LA	-2.9%
McComb, MS	-2.8%
Hobbs, NM	-2.6%
Morgan City, LA	-2.5%
Big Spring, TX	-2.4%

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Increase Most by July 2024

Zillow still predicts that the vast majority of regional housing markets will see home values appreciating in 2023. Among the 894 regional housing markets Zillow economists analyzed, 874 markets are predicted to see rising house prices over the next twelve months ending with July 2024. One market, El Dorado, AR, is predicted to remain flat for home price growth. The housing market in Atchison, KS is forecasted to see the highest year-over-year house price growth of 16.5%.

Metro Area	Change in Values
Atchison, KS	+16.5%
Rio Grande City, TX	+16.3%
Parsons, KS	+15.7%
West Plains, MO	+13.8%
Jackson, WY	+13.1%

Fannie Mae, a leading source of mortgage financing in the United States, has released its latest housing market forecast. The forecast provides insights into the anticipated trends and expectations for home sales, housing starts, and mortgage originations.

Home Sales Forecast:

Fannie Mae's overall home sales forecast remains relatively stable, with a slight revision in the numbers. The projected total sales for 2023 have been revised upward to 4.86 million units, compared to the previous estimate of 4.84 million units. This revision suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook for home sales in the current year. However, for 2024, there has been a slight downward revision to 5.01 million units, previously estimated at 5.03 million units.

Housing Starts Forecast:

The forecast for housing starts, which refers to the number of new residential construction projects initiated, has seen an upward revision. This revision is mainly attributed to a more positive outlook for near-term single-family housing starts. While the adjustment is modest, it indicates a favorable trend in new construction activity.

Mortgage Originations Outlook:

Fannie Mae's purchase mortgage originations outlook has experienced a modest upward revision, aligning with the revision in home sales. This adjustment reflects the expectation of increased mortgage originations in line with the projected growth in home sales. However, the positive revision in purchase mortgage originations has been offset by a downward revision in refinance originations. As a result, the overall impact on total originations for 2023 is minimal, with the projected volume remaining at $1.65 trillion, unchanged from the previous forecast of $1.66 trillion.

Looking ahead to 2024, Fannie Mae anticipates a further increase in total originations, with a projected volume of $2.03 trillion. This figure represents a slight upward revision from the previous estimate of $2.02 trillion. The revised outlook for mortgage originations in 2024 suggests continued growth in the housing market and mortgage financing activities.

In conclusion, Fannie Mae's housing market forecast indicates a relatively stable outlook for home sales, housing starts, and mortgage originations. While there have been slight revisions to the numbers, the overall trends point towards a resilient housing market with modest growth expectations. As the market evolves, it will be essential to closely monitor these projections to make informed decisions in the real estate and mortgage sectors.

Summary of Experts' Forecasts for the Housing Market in 2023

Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of The Chief Economist at CoreLogic: Real estate activity and consumer mood regarding the housing market plummeted after the recent increase in mortgage rates above 7%. In October, home price increases remained close to single digits, and this trend is expected to persist through the rest of the year and into 2023.

Some housing areas have experienced major recalibration since the spring price high and are projected to incur losses in 2023. Nonetheless, more deteriorating inventory, some relief in mortgage rate rises, and reasonably optimistic economic data may help eventually stabilize home values.

The top economist at Realtor.com, Danielle Hale: In 2023, the housing market could feel more like a buyer's market than a seller's market after being in a sellers' market for several years. While the 22.8% increase in listings should be good news for buyers, it's mostly due to homes taking longer to sell due to tighter affordability. In 2023, the national annual median price for homes for sale is projected to rise by another 5.4%, which is less than half the pace seen in 2022.

Even if a homeowner decides to sell their home, they will likely have a lot of equity in it. However, as buyers and sellers pull back from a housing market and economy in transition, we anticipate house sales to be significantly lower, down 14.1% compared to 2022. The rate of home sales in late 2022 is a good indicator of what the annual total for 2023 would look like.

Chief economist and senior vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun: In 2023 and beyond, the real estate market in Atlanta will be the one to watch as 4.78 million existing homes are sold at stable prices. The median home price will rise to $385,800, an increase of only 0.3% from this year's level ($384,500), while home sales will fall 6.8% compared to 2022's level (5.13 million).

There's a chance that half of the country may witness price increases, while the other half will see price drops. Nonetheless, the markets in California may be an outlier, with San Francisco perhaps seeing price decreases of 10-15%. Following a 7% increase in 2022, rents will go up by 5% in 2023. In 2023, the foreclosure rate will be lower than ever before, accounting for less than one percent of all mortgages.

This is less than half the average historical rate of 2.5%, therefore the 1.3% GDP growth will be a significant slowdown. As the Fed lowers the pace of rate hikes in an effort to contain inflation, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 5.7% in late 2022 from its peak of over 7% at the time. This is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of 8%.

Taylor Marr, Associate Chief Economist at Redfin: Mortgage rates are expected to fall further in the new year as a result of taming inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease rate hikes in the next year, which will boost demand for house purchases. But demand is still well below its high, so it's too early to declare a comeback or even a recovery.

We are keeping an eye on the job market for signs of sustained deceleration in price growth. Higher salaries and consequent price increases are one effect of a robust labor market like the one we're experiencing right now. A small increase in unemployment and/or slower economic growth would definitely help bring down mortgage rates even further, which seems paradoxical. If this trend continues into 2023, the boost in demand seen thus far may be reflected in a rise in pending sales.

Senior economist at Zillow, Jeff Tucker: The softening of the rental market has not yet resulted in any significant respite for tenants. There is hope, though, that prices will decrease in the coming months. Rent increases have slowed from a record 17.2% in February to 8.4% in November. Data like this is encouraging for renters hoping to sign a new lease in 2023, but they should still keep a careful eye on the market and move swiftly if they locate a rental that meets their needs and budget.

Since rental rates are still higher than they were before the outbreak, compromise and adaptability will be required well into next year. Tenants with leases coming up for renewal should realize that they have greater leverage to negotiate this year and should look around at comparable rentals in the area before making a decision. Which forecast mentioned above do you think is more accurate?

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: What Do Market Trends Predict?

Here's when home prices can drop. While this may appear to be oversimplified, it is how markets work. Prices drop when demand is met. There is now an excessive demand for houses in several property markets, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective purchasers. Home construction has increased in recent years, although they are still far behind. Thus, big drops in housing prices would necessitate considerable drops in buyer demand.

Demand falls mostly as a result of higher interest rates or a general weakening of the economy. Rising interest rates would ultimately need far less demand and far more housing supply than we now have. Even if price growth slows this year, a drastic fall in home prices is quite unlikely. As a result, there will be no fall in house values; rather, a pullback, which is natural for any asset class. According to many experts, in the United States, house price growth is forecasted to “moderate” or maybe slightly drop in 2023.

What's happening in the housing market right now? According to recent weekly data from Realtor.com, mortgage rates, home prices, and available inventory are key considerations for homebuyers when making purchase decisions. Unfortunately, none of these elements tilts in favor of buyers in today’s market.

Meanwhile, sellers are also grappling with similar factors, especially those who must secure a new home before selling their current one, as they may encounter difficulties in finding suitable options and managing the costs to afford them. However, as we approach the fall season, a time typically favored by homebuyers, a slimmer of optimism emerges.

Optimistic Trends Ahead

If the current trend of a narrowing gap in inventory persists, it will be very likely to see more newly listed homes available than the record low set last fall and winter. In addition, given seasonality and recent momentum in the housing market, we do not expect to see a new peak price surpassing the June 2022 high of $449,000.

Furthermore, the likelihood for the Fed to take another “wait-and-see” strategy in its September FOMC meeting remains high, which may help potentially mitigate the recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates. Another key point for both buyers and sellers to keep in mind is that national trends may or may not match what’s happening in your market at your price point.

Key Findings

The median listing price grew by 1.1% over last year. Median listing prices rose on an annual basis for the fourth week in a row, marking a noteworthy rebound following a period of decline in June and July.
New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 5.7% from one year ago. For 59 weeks, there have been fewer newly listed homes compared to the same time one year ago. However, this gap has been shrinking as we start to compare against low new listings in the latter months of 2022. This week’s data shows a 2.4 percentage point improvement over last week.
Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year-ago levels by 7.2%. This past week marked the 9th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however, the gap narrowed slightly compared to the previous week’s -8.6% figure.
Homes spent 4 extra days on the market compared to this time last year. For more than a year (57 weeks in a row), the time a typical home has been on the market is up compared to the same time one year ago, but the gap has been generally declining this year.

Housing Market Predictions for 2023 — Source: Realtor.com

June 2023 Housing Market Analysis and Forecast

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report offers an extensive view of the Home Price Index (HPI) product with analysis up to June 2023 and forecasts up to June 2024.

Current Home Price Trends

Steady Growth Year Over Year

In June 2023, home prices across the nation, encompassing distressed sales, exhibited a year-over-year increase of 1.6% compared to the same period in 2022. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.5% surge in home prices in June 2023 in comparison to May 2023. It's important to note that these figures incorporate revised data from public records, ensuring the accuracy of the analysis.

Forecasted Price Trends

Projected Upward Trajectory

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast indicates an anticipated month-over-month rise of 0.6% in home prices from June 2023 to July 2023. Additionally, a year-over-year increase of 4.3% is projected from June 2023 to June 2024, suggesting a positive outlook for the housing market.

Analyst Insights

Rebounding from a Low

Despite an annual home price growth of 1.6% in June, which remains near an 11-year low, there are signs of a potential turnaround. The slight increase from May indicates that the market might be stabilizing. CoreLogic experts anticipate a pickup in year-over-year home price appreciation throughout the remainder of 2023, possibly reaching 7% by early 2024.

Ten states, including the District of Columbia, witnessed declines in annual home prices in June. Particularly in the Northwest, where housing supply is limited, prices are expected to stay elevated due to persistent buyer-seller imbalances.

Regional Variation

Market Diversity Across States

The CoreLogic HPI provides comprehensive insights by segmenting markets based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type, and distressed sales. Nationally, a 1.6% year-over-year home price increase was observed in June.

States such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Washington, D.C. reported annual declines in home prices. Conversely, New Jersey (6.9%) and New Hampshire and Vermont (both 6.4%) recorded the highest year-over-year increases.

Metropolitan Area Analysis

Exploring Urban Home Price Changes

An in-depth look at large metropolitan areas reveals diverse trends in home price changes. Miami stood out with an impressive 8.9% year-over-year gain in June, indicating the dynamic nature of the urban housing market.

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

Assessing Vulnerability in Housing Markets

The housing market is a dynamic ecosystem influenced by various factors, and understanding potential risks is essential for both investors and homeowners. The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) provides valuable insights into the health of housing markets across the United States. This monthly update assesses the probability of home price declines over the next 12 months, guiding stakeholders in making informed decisions.

Identifying High-Risk Markets

The MRI's analysis has identified several markets that are at a very high risk of experiencing a decline in home prices, with a probability exceeding 70%. These markets are:

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL: This region faces a significant likelihood of home price declines in the upcoming year. The MRI's assessment points to factors that might contribute to this risk, such as supply-demand imbalances, economic fluctuations, and other local dynamics.
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: Situated in Florida, this market also falls within the very high-risk category for potential home price declines. External influences like economic trends and market saturation could be influencing this risk assessment.
Provo-Orem, UT: Despite being located in Utah, a state known for its economic stability, Provo-Orem faces a very high risk of home price declines. Local economic conditions and demographic changes could be playing a role in this assessment.
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA: This Washington state market is also marked as very high risk for potential home price declines. Factors like job market trends and housing supply may be contributing to this risk assessment.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL: The housing market in this Florida region is identified as very high risk in terms of potential home price declines. Economic fluctuations and other local dynamics could be influencing this risk assessment.

Understanding the Implications

Being labeled as very high-risk doesn't necessarily mean that home prices will definitely decline in these markets. Instead, it serves as a cautionary signal for investors, buyers, and sellers to carefully evaluate their strategies and decisions. The MRI's analysis takes into account a range of factors that can impact home prices, such as economic indicators, local job markets, supply-demand ratios, and more.

It's important to note that real estate markets are influenced by complex interactions of factors, and the MRI provides a quantitative assessment to guide decision-making.

Informed Decision-Making

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator empowers individuals and organizations with the information needed to navigate the ever-changing landscape of real estate. By understanding the risk level in specific markets, stakeholders can adjust their strategies and make decisions that align with their goals and risk tolerance. Whether it's an investor considering a property purchase or a homeowner contemplating selling, the MRI offers valuable insights for making informed choices in the dynamic world of real estate.

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline — Source: CoreLogic

U.S. House Price Index – March 2023

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released the U.S. House Price Index for March 2023, indicating a 0.2% increase in January 2023 from December 2022. The annual change in house prices from January 2022 to January 2023 was 5.3%, while the 0.1% decline reported for December 2022 remained unchanged.

Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Price Changes by Census Division:

The FHFA's report also indicates seasonally adjusted monthly price changes for nine census divisions in the US from December 2022 to January 2023. The Pacific division saw a -0.6% change, while the New England division saw a +2.0% change.

12-Month Changes by Census Division:

The report further highlights the 12-month changes in house prices by census division. The Pacific division saw a -1.5% change, while the South Atlantic division saw a +9.6% change.

Insights from FHFA:

According to Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics, “U.S. house prices changed slightly in January, continuing the trend of the last few months. Many of the January closings, on which this month's HPI is constructed, reflect rate locks after mortgage rates declined from their peak in early November. Inventories of available homes for sale remained low.”

Will Home Prices Drop — **Source: FHFA**

U.S. House Price Index Report – 4Q 2022: FHFA HPI®

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U.S. house prices rose 8.4 percent between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. The U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was down 0.1 percent from November. Here are the significant findings of the report.

State-Wise House Prices

House prices rose in all 50 states, while prices declined in the District of Columbia between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. The five areas with the highest annual appreciation were Florida (15.2 percent), North Carolina (13.4 percent), South Carolina (12.9 percent), Hawaii (12.8 percent), and Maine (12.2 percent). The areas showing the lowest annual appreciation were the District of Columbia (-0.8 percent), California (2.3 percent), Idaho (3.1 percent), Oregon (3.6 percent), and Washington (3.7 percent).

Metropolitan Areas

House prices rose in all but six of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was greatest in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL at 20.1 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the greatest price decline was Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD) at -4.3 percent.

Census Divisions

Of the nine census divisions, the South Atlantic division recorded the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 12.4 percent increase between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. Appreciation was weakest in the Pacific division, where prices rose by 2.9 percent.

The Slowdown in House Price Appreciation

“House price appreciation continued to wane in the fourth quarter,” said Dr. Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “House prices grew at a much slower pace in recent quarters amid higher mortgage rates and a decline in mortgage applications. These negative pressures were partially offset by historically low inventory.”

Conclusion: Will Housing Prices Drop in 2023?

The broader outlook from several housing analysts is that housing demand will continue to surge due to several factors. For e.g; the millennials have aged into their prime homebuying years, and they are now the fastest-growing segment of home buyers. In 2018, millennial homeownership was at a record low but the situation has changed markedly. They are no longer holding back when it comes to homeownership.

According to the 2023 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report from the National Association of Realtors, the demand for homes is increasing among baby boomers, who now make up the largest generation of homebuyers in the US, accounting for 39% of home buyers in 2022, up from 29% in 2021.

On the other hand, younger and older millennials' combined share of homebuyers decreased from 43% in 2021 to 28% in 2022. Generation X made up 24% of total buyers, and Generation Z makes up 4% of homebuyers, with 30% of Gen Z moving directly from a family member's home into homeownership.

Furthermore, buyers are now moving farther distances, with younger boomers moving the greatest distance at a median of 90 miles away. Additionally, all generations agreed that the most common reason to sell was to be closer to friends and family. Buyers expect to live in their homes for 15 years on average, up from 12 years in 2021.

Overall, the report suggests that demand for homes is growing among baby boomers and Generation Z while decreasing among younger and older millennials. Buyers are moving farther distances, with a desire to be closer to friends and family being the most common reason to sell. Buyers also view owning a home as a good investment, with a majority of buyers using a real estate agent to help with the purchase.

Hence, housing prices cannot drop drastically in 2023. Although the housing market appears to be cooling from 2023 through 2024, there are some bright spots. Economic forecasters, despite the recent recession, continue to expect robust demand from purchasers (millennials) and high home price increases in the housing market.

With homebuyers active and supply still lacking, the current trend of home prices will not see a major downfall. Despite a sluggish market and waning buyer enthusiasm, we anticipate that home demand will continue to outstrip available inventory. Increasing rental costs should add to this expected development.

However, as the number of available homes increases, the demand for housing should decrease owing to affordability concerns. As a result, we are not on the verge of a housing market crash. The rate of home price growth during the two years of the pandemic was unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates combined with increased inventory will result in slower home price growth but unlikely any big price decline.

It's important to remember that the housing market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and predictions are subject to change as conditions evolve. Keeping track of market indicators and staying informed about economic trends can help buyers, sellers, and industry professionals make well-informed decisions.

As the US housing market moves forward in 2023, it will be interesting to see how the various factors impacting home prices unfold. The balance between supply and demand, affordability concerns, economic conditions, and policy changes will continue to shape the trajectory of home prices nationwide.

Whether you're a potential homebuyer, seller, or industry observer, staying informed about the latest trends and forecasts can provide valuable insights into the US housing market. By understanding these dynamics, you can navigate the market more effectively and make informed decisions that align with your goals and aspirations.

Sources:

https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/reportsplans/Pages/FHFA-Reports.aspx
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/housing-market-predictions/
https://www.zillow.com/resources/stay-informed/housing-market-predictions-2023/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights-march-2023/
https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/housing-market-index/articles/housing-market-predictions-for-the-next-5-years
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/baby-boomers-overtake-millennials-as-largest-generation-of-home-buyers

Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024: Predictions & Trends

September 26, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

The housing market today is a topic of much debate among experts. While there is no consensus on whether the historically tight housing market will loosen or not, it is evident that the market has cooled significantly from its previous highs. The housing market today is still a seller's market. Home prices are rising, inventory is low, and mortgage rates are increasing.

This makes it a challenging time to buy a home, but there are still opportunities for buyers who are prepared. In this post, we will discuss the latest housing market predictions & forecasts. Despite initial concerns of a housing market crash comparable to the Great Depression due to the pandemic, the market has remained stable. However, there are key factors to consider, such as rising home prices and potential declines in home sales due to supply-demand imbalances.

Main outlook for the housing market in the coming months and years:

The housing market is expected to continue to cool down in the coming months, as rising mortgage rates and inflation make it more expensive to buy a home.

However, home prices are still expected to rise, albeit at a slower pace.

The housing market is expected to remain a seller's market for the foreseeable future, as demand for homes continues to outstrip supply.

The impact of higher mortgage rates and recession fears has contributed to the market's cooling from its peak earlier this year. Nevertheless, there are other factors that may influence the market's pace and favorability for both buyers and sellers. The market is gradually shifting away from being heavily skewed towards sellers, moving towards more balanced conditions. Buyers are still showing interest, maintaining some level of competition, particularly for attractively priced homes.

While real estate firms generally do not predict a financial or foreclosure crisis on the scale of 2008, they do anticipate a return to more typical housing fundamentals. This moderation may be driven by increasing salaries and declining home prices. As the correction takes place, the housing market is expected to reach a more reasonable valuation and avoid being overvalued.

ALSO READ: Real Estate Housing Market Trends for February 2023

Mortgage rates will likely play a significant role in determining the decline in home values. Interest rates have a substantial impact on the real estate market, influencing mortgage payments, housing demand, and prices. Although home prices are still experiencing growth, the rate of increase has slowed compared to earlier in the year. Despite this, buyer interest remains high, resulting in a somewhat competitive market, especially for homes that are priced attractively and possess desirable features.

However, concerns persist regarding the housing market, particularly regarding the shortage of housing supply and rising interest rates. The shortage of supply has been a primary driver of home price growth, but the increasing interest rates are discouraging potential sellers and new construction. As a result, there is limited hope for an improvement in the housing supply and the establishment of a sustainable market that would benefit from increased inventory.

The significant increase in mortgage rates since last year has further exacerbated the already expensive housing market, making it even less affordable. Home prices saw a meteoric rise during the pandemic, driven by factors such as high demand, low supply, and record-low mortgage rates. However, the sudden surge in mortgage rates has slowed the market's growth and affordability, posing challenges for buyers looking to enter the market.

As we explore the latest housing market predictions and forecasts, it becomes evident that the market's trajectory remains uncertain. Factors such as interest rates, supply-demand dynamics, and affordability will continue to shape the housing market. Staying informed about these predictions will be crucial for prospective buyers, sellers, and industry professionals navigating the ever-evolving housing landscape.

Housing Market Predictions for 2024

The housing market in the United States has been a topic of keen interest and speculation in recent times. Zillow, a prominent player in the real estate industry, has made a bold prediction that U.S. home prices will experience a significant jump of 6.5% by July 2024.

Zillow's Optimistic Forecast for the Housing Market

Back in February, Zillow's housing economists made a noteworthy call that U.S. home prices had reached their lowest point and would see a climb of 0.5% over the subsequent 12 months.

In the months leading up to this prediction, the U.S. home prices, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index, not only rebounded but also hit a new all-time high. This resurgence was attributed to the strong demand driven by limited inventory levels, outweighing the impact of elevated mortgage rates.

Zillow consistently revised its home price forecast upwards as the U.S. house price rebound continued. The latest revision projects a 6.5% rise in U.S. home prices between July 2023 and July 2024, surpassing the 6.3% forecast made just the previous month. It's worth noting that U.S. home prices, according to the Case-Shiller index, have historically averaged an annual increase of 5.5% since 1975.

“Limited for-sale inventory continues to push home prices upward even as mortgage rates remain elevated,” explained Zillow housing economists. They highlighted that the number of homes listed for sale in July was just over half of those in the same month of 2019.

Additionally, new listings entering the market were 29% fewer than the typical levels before the pandemic. This supply shortage has led to heightened competition among potential buyers. Homes that went under contract in July did so in just 12 days, significantly faster than the 2018 and 2019 averages.

Regional Variations

While Zillow anticipates a 6.5% increase in national home prices over the next year, its forecast model points out that 120 of the nation's 400 largest housing markets will witness even greater growth rates of 7.0% or more during the same period. These markets are spread across various regions of the country, including the West, South, Midwest, and Northeast.

Top 10 MSAs Where Home Prices Will Grow by July 2024

Here's a look at the top 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) where home prices are projected to experience substantial growth by July 2024:

Atchison, KS: Projected increase of 16.5%
Rio Grande City, TX: Projected increase of 16.3%
Parsons, KS: Projected increase of 15.7%
West Plains, MO: Projected increase of 13.8%
Jackson, WY: Projected increase of 13.1%
Thomaston, GA: Projected increase of 12.9%
Steamboat Springs, CO: Projected increase of 12.9%
Edwards, CO: Projected increase of 12.7%
Maryville, MO: Projected increase of 12.6%
McMinnville, TN: Projected increase of 12.5%

Alternate Views

While Zillow's optimism is palpable, it's important to note that not all experts share the same sentiment. For instance, Morgan Stanley foresees a different trajectory for U.S. home prices in 2024. Their perspective suggests that home prices will experience a decline during this period, offering potential relief for prospective buyers.

Despite the differing opinions, one thing remains clear: the U.S. housing market is in a state of flux, influenced by factors such as inventory levels, mortgage rates, and economic conditions. As the months roll on, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions unfold and whether the market continues its upward trajectory or experiences the anticipated corrections.

Housing Market Predictions Until June 2024

As we look ahead to the coming months, CoreLogic provides us with valuable insights into the trajectory of the housing market until June 2024. Let's delve into the forecasts and assessments that shed light on what lies ahead for potential buyers, sellers, and industry observers.

Year-Over-Year Growth and Monthly Trends

As of June 2023, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, experienced a year-over-year increase of 1.6% compared with June 2022. This growth in home prices reflects the resilience of the housing market and its ability to navigate changing economic conditions.

On a month-over-month basis, the momentum continued, with home prices rising by 0.5% in June 2023 compared with May 2023. CoreLogic emphasizes that these figures are subject to revisions as new public records data become available. Ensuring accuracy is paramount, and CoreLogic's commitment to incorporating the latest data ensures that the results remain up-to-date and reliable.

Identifying Housing Markets at Risk of Price Decline

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) provides a monthly update on the overall health of housing markets across the nation. This valuable tool assesses the probability of home price changes over the next year and identifies markets that are at risk of potential declines. According to the MRI, several markets stand out as being at very high risk (with a probability of 70% or higher) for a decline in home prices over the next 12 months.

The markets flagged as very high risk include:

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Provo-Orem, UT
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

These areas are likely to experience challenges in maintaining or increasing home prices, and potential buyers and sellers in these markets should take note of these risk indicators.

National Housing Forecast: Steady Price Increases

Housing Market Predictions for 2024 — Source: CoreLogic

Looking at the bigger picture, the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast offers insights into the anticipated changes in home prices on both a monthly and year-over-year basis. The forecast suggests that home prices are projected to increase by 0.6% from June 2023 to July 2023 on a month-over-month basis. Furthermore, a year-over-year increase of 4.3% in home prices is expected from June 2023 to June 2024.

This forecast indicates that the housing market is poised for steady growth over the coming months. However, it's important to remember that forecasts are based on a combination of factors, including economic trends, interest rates, and local market conditions. Unforeseen events can also impact the trajectory of the housing market.

Hence, we can form an opinion that the landscape of the U.S. housing market is a complex tapestry woven by economic currents, supply and demand dynamics, and evolving trends. The housing market predictions until June 2024 offer a compass for individuals seeking insights into the future of home prices and market conditions. In this realm of forecasting, three significant players stand out: Zillow, CoreLogic, and Morgan Stanley.

Zillow harnesses its expertise to project a future where U.S. home prices could see a substantial 6.5% surge by July 2024. This optimistic projection underscores the resilience of the housing market and its potential to overcome challenges.

CoreLogic, on the other hand, provides a nuanced view of the market's health through its Market Risk Indicator (MRI). It identifies areas at a very high risk of experiencing home price declines, offering valuable insights for potential buyers and sellers to navigate market uncertainties.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley introduces a different perspective, anticipating the possibility of a decline in home prices during 2024. This stance reflects the intricate dance between economic factors and market dynamics.

As individuals traverse the path forward, the insights offered by these forecasts empower them to make well-informed decisions. Whether one is considering purchasing a new home, selling a property, or simply observing market trends, the knowledge gained from these analyses serves as a powerful tool that guides choices.

Staying vigilant is key as we venture into the coming months, as economic shifts, interest rate fluctuations, and local market dynamics continue to play a vital role in shaping the housing market. The interplay of these factors is at the heart of the intricate web that defines the housing landscape.

The housing market's trajectory is a spectrum of possibilities, from Zillow's optimistic projection to Morgan Stanley's cautionary anticipation. The interaction of supply and demand, the influence of interest rates, and the broader economic environment will collectively determine the path of U.S. home prices.

In this evolving narrative, prospective buyers, sellers, and industry experts are poised to closely monitor unfolding developments. These predictions have the potential to reshape the contours of the U.S. housing market, influencing strategies and decisions.

Ultimately, understanding the forecasted predictions and trends equips individuals with the insights they need to navigate challenges, seize opportunities, and make informed decisions in a dynamic and ever-evolving housing market.

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

Fannie Mae, a leading source of mortgage financing in the United States, has released its latest housing market forecast. The forecast provides insights into the anticipated trends and expectations for home sales, housing starts, and mortgage originations.

Home Sales Forecast:

Housing Starts Forecast:

Mortgage Originations Outlook:

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home prices are expected to increase by 1.2% this year. This projection indicates a continued upward trend in the housing market. Additionally, NAR predicts that mortgage rates will plateau at about 6.4%.

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have both recently made forecasts for the US housing market in 2023, and their predictions suggest a decline in home prices. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a more significant drop, with a projected decline of 7.6% from the peak, while Wells Fargo predicts a more modest decrease of 5.5%. Both banks attribute the anticipated drop to the current housing supply shortage, which has been a persistent issue in recent years.

It's worth noting that Wells Fargo also highlighted that there may be significant discrepancies in the extent of the price fluctuations depending on the desirability of a particular location. This could mean that some areas may experience larger price drops than others, depending on factors such as local economic conditions, population growth, and housing supply and demand dynamics.

The accounting firm KPMG LLP's forecast for the housing market in 2023 looks bleak. Existing home sales are predicted to drop by 23% from 2022, which would be a decrease not seen since 2007. The drop is expected to be driven by single-family home sales due to the limited supply and high prices. However, condos are predicted to fare better.

The number of purchase applications has dropped by over 40% from a year ago in February. Buyers are betting on rate cuts by the Fed as their mortgages reset in 2024, and they are using adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get into the few homes that are listed. Despite the spike in rates and erosion in affordability, millennials still make up over half of the purchase applications.

The share of those who have locked into ultra-low rates or paid off their mortgages has surged. Those homeowners have a natural hedge against escalating shelter costs and some have chosen to rent out their homes to cash in on the demand for single-family rentals, further constraining the stock of homes.

Home prices are predicted to fall between 7% and 10% depending on the measure, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index expected to drop another 8% in 2023, bringing prices to the still elevated levels of late 2021. Despite the rise in demand for rentals, rents have fallen more rapidly than home prices, and the Fed is counting on those declines to cool inflation. However, the tight labor market may place a floor under how much rents fall in the hottest markets, hence the Fed's focus on the labor market.

According to Freddie Mac's Housing Sentiment in the First Quarter of 2023, market confidence in the housing market has rebounded somewhat quarter-over-quarter, despite payment concerns remaining unchanged among both homeowners and renters. Specifically, 43% of respondents are confident the housing market will remain strong over the next year, up 9 percentage points from last quarter but down 15 percentage points compared to last year.

However, concerns about housing affordability persist, with 59% of renters and 28% of homeowners spending more than 30% of their monthly income on housing. Additionally, over half of the respondents (54%) expressed concerns about making housing payments, with 70% of renters and 44% of homeowners feeling this way.

In terms of market activity, only 18% of respondents indicated they are likely to buy a home in the next six months, while 14% of homeowners say they are likely to sell in the same period. About 16% of homeowners plan to refinance in the next six months. Overall, while market confidence has rebounded somewhat, concerns over housing affordability and payment continue to persist.

Freddie Mac's Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook, released in May, provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and predictions for the future. The outlook addresses various aspects, including home sales, home prices, and mortgage originations.

Home Sales:

Higher mortgage interest rates have significantly impacted affordability, resulting in a dampening effect on home sales. The report anticipates that this trend will continue to weigh on home sales. Additionally, the limited inventory is expected to persist as existing homeowners, who have locked in low mortgage rates, are less likely to list their homes for sale. However, if the economy avoids a recession and unemployment remains stable, forced selling is unlikely to increase. With a stable interest rate environment, home sales are projected to level off and gradually resume modest growth. Nevertheless, it may take several years before volumes return to the levels observed in 2021.

Home Prices:

While home prices have generally shown positive trends in most markets, the report maintains a cautious outlook due to the potential impact of weakening employment. It is still too early to separate the true signal from the noise. The report's official corporate forecast predicts a 2.9% decline in house prices over the course of twelve months through Q1 of the following year. Furthermore, an additional 1.3% decline is projected over the subsequent twelve months.

Mortgage Originations:

The limited number of mortgages that are in the money for rate refinancing is expected to keep refinance origination volumes low. A substantial decrease in mortgage rates would be required to trigger a significant number of refinances. However, as rates fluctuate, some opportunities for refinancing may arise, resulting in a trickle of refinances.

Additionally, there continues to be demand for refinancing based on non-rate-related factors, such as the cancellation of FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums by refinancing into a conventional loan and term extension. On the purchase side, low levels of home sales combined with falling national house prices are likely to keep home purchase originations relatively flat for the current year. However, as home price growth turns positive and home sales gradually increase, purchase originations are expected to resume modest growth in the latter half of this year and beyond.

Housing Market Predictions For the Next Few Years

The housing market is far better than it was a decade ago. During the two years of the pandemic, the housing industry experienced a boom, with the most significant annual increase in single-family house values and rentals, historically low foreclosure rates, and the highest number of home sales in 15 years, totaling 6.9 million for the entire year of 2021. Over those two years, national home prices increased by around 33%.

The market was driven by record-low borrowing rates in 2020 and 2021, as well as a supply constraint due to underbuilding. The enormous demand from first-time buyers is almost as important as the limited new supply. The housing market is also being driven by exceptionally favorable age demographic trends. But soaring interest rates are making mortgage payments more expensive since last year and cooling the hot real estate market.

The overarching concern is whether or not the housing market will crash, and if so, when. The simple answer is that it will not crash anytime soon and we certainly don't see a housing market crash coming in 2023 or 2024. Rising rates are cooling the market as some expected but the prices are still rising at a slower rate.

The current trends and the forecast for the next 12 to 24 months clearly show that most likely the housing market is expected to see a positive home price appreciation. In recent years, the price of homes has climbed dramatically. Many prospective buyers, especially those with limited financial resources, are eager to hear whether and when home prices will become more accessible.

Here is when housing market prices are going to crash. While this may appear to be an oversimplification, this is how markets operate. When demand is satisfied, prices fall. In many housing markets, there is an extreme demand for properties at the moment, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective buyers. Home construction has been increasing in recent years, but they are so far behind catching up. Thus, to see significant declines in home prices, we would need to see significant declines in buyer demand.

Demand declines primarily as a result of rising interest rates or a slowing economy in general. Ultimately, for rising interest rates to destroy home values, we'd need substantially less demand and far more housing supply than we presently have. Even if price growth moderates this year, it is extremely improbable that home prices will crash. Thus, there will be no crash in home prices; rather, there will be a pullback, which is normal for any asset class. The home price growth in the United States is forecasted to just “moderate” in 2023.

Affordability will be a concern for many, as home prices will continue to rise, if at a slower pace than the previous year. With 10 years having now passed since the Great Recession, the U.S. has been in the longest period of continued economic expansion on record. The housing market has been along for much of the ride and continues to benefit greatly from the overall health of the economy.

However, hot economies eventually cool, and with that, hot housing markets move more toward balance. Housing market forecasts are essentially informed guesses based on existing patterns. While the real estate pace of last year appears to be reverting to seasonality as we enter 2023, demand is not waning.

Increasing interest rates will almost certainly have a greater impact on the national housing market in 2023 than any other factor. While sellers remain in an advantageous position, price stability and the continuation of competitive interest rates may provide some much-needed relief to buyers this year. Housing supply is and will likely remain a challenge for some time as labor and material shortages, as well as general supply chain issues, delay new construction.

The housing market will continue to cool down, but not crash. Record-low borrowing rates, supply constraints, and first-time buyers drove prices up, but prices are expected to appreciate slower or remain flat for the next 12-24 months. Rising interest rates may lead to a pullback in prices and improve affordability. Nonetheless, it remains a concern as prices make it hard for some buyers to enter the market. Overall, the market will remain strong, but hot markets will move toward balance.

While the national housing market won't crash, several regional markets may see a decline in home prices in the coming years due to rising interest rates. Higher interest rates could lead to a decrease in affordability, which may result in fewer buyers in certain areas. As a result, regions that were previously experiencing rapid price growth may experience a slowdown or even a decline in home prices. However, it is worth mentioning that this would likely be a temporary setback, as long-term demographic and economic trends are still in favor of the housing market.

References

https://www.realtor.com/research/
https://www.realtor.com/research/blog/
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates/
https://www.blackknightinc.com/
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast
https://www.kpmg.us/insights/2023/march-2023-economic-compass.html
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/
https://www.zillow.com/research/daily-market-pulse-26666/
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx
https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/how-millennials-are-changing-housing-market

AZ Housing Market: Prices And Forecast 2023

September 21, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

The Arizona housing market has experienced fluctuations in 2023, and many are eager to know what the future holds for this dynamic real estate landscape. Various data sources, such as Zillow and housing market forecasts, provide insights into the current state and potential developments. Let's explore the forecast for the Arizona housing market in the coming months.

Current Arizona Housing Market Snapshot

According to Zillow, the average home value in Arizona is $420,310. This figure reflects a 6.8% decrease over the past year. Additionally, properties are typically going pending in around 19 days, indicating a swift pace of sales and a competitive market environment.

Arizona Housing Sales Metrics

Examining sales metrics provides insights into market dynamics and buyer behavior. The median sale to list ratio for June 30, 2023, is 0.993, suggesting that homes are being sold at a price very close to their listing prices.

Of the sales recorded on June 30, 2023, 20.9% were over the list price, showcasing the competitive bidding environment. On the other hand, 53.4% of sales were under the list price, showcasing the flexibility in pricing strategies employed by sellers.

Regional Trends and Forecast

Let's take a closer look at the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within Arizona and their projected trends:

Phoenix, AZ: A projected growth of 0.6% by August 31, 2023, 1.4% by October 31, 2023, and 6.9% by July 31, 2024.
Tucson, AZ: Expected to experience growth of 0.5% by August 31, 2023, 1.6% by October 31, 2023, and 7.6% by July 31, 2024.
Lake Havasu City, AZ: Foreseen growth of 0.3% by August 31, 2023, 1.2% by October 31, 2023, and 7.6% by July 31, 2024.
Yuma, AZ: Expected to grow by 0.8% by August 31, 2023, 1.7% by October 31, 2023, and 8.3% by July 31, 2024.
Flagstaff, AZ: Projected to grow by 0.7% by August 31, 2023, 0.9% by October 31, 2023, and 7.2% by July 31, 2024.
Sierra Vista, AZ: Anticipated to grow by 0% by August 31, 2023, 0.5% by October 31, 2023, and 6.2% by July 31, 2024.
Show Low, AZ: Expected to grow by 0.5% by August 31, 2023, 1.4% by October 31, 2023, and 9.3% by July 31, 2024.
Payson, AZ: Foreseen growth of 0.7% by August 31, 2023, 1.8% by October 31, 2023, and 8.6% by July 31, 2024.
Nogales, AZ: Expected to grow by 0.7% by August 31, 2023, 2% by October 31, 2023, and 8.5% by July 31, 2024.
Safford, AZ: Anticipated to grow by 0.3% by August 31, 2023, 0.9% by October 31, 2023, and 6.1% by July 31, 2024.

The Arizona housing market's forecast is a mix of nuanced trends and opportunities. Despite recent price adjustments, the projected growth across various MSAs indicates a positive outlook for the market. Buyers and sellers alike will find it valuable to stay informed about these trends as they navigate the diverse landscape of Arizona's housing market.

ALSO READ: Will the US Housing Market Crash?

Are Arizona Housing Prices Dropping?

The recent data provided by Zillow suggests that housing prices in Arizona have experienced a 6.8% decrease over the past year, as of July 31, 2023. This decrease indicates a market correction following a period of growth. However, it's important to note that fluctuations in housing prices are not uncommon and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inventory levels, and buyer demand. The decrease in prices may present opportunities for potential buyers looking to enter the market at a more affordable range.

What Will Happen to the Arizona Housing Market?

Forecasting the future of any housing market involves considering a multitude of factors. As of July 31, 2023, Zillow's data predicts a 3.6% increase in the Arizona housing market over the next year. This projected growth indicates a potential rebound in housing prices and a positive trajectory for the market.

Additionally, the forecast provides insights into various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within Arizona, indicating growth across different regions. Buyers, sellers, and investors should closely monitor economic indicators, supply and demand dynamics, and overall market trends to make informed decisions as the Arizona housing market evolves in the coming months.

The graph below depicts the median or average house value in the region over a number of years. Migration patterns, according to some analysts, are the fundamental reason for this hot housing market. Arizona continues to get a significant number of residents from California, Texas, Illinois, and Washington. There is a limited available supply of homes. Because of the high demand, homebuilders are unable to keep up with supply, and a housing bubble can't burst if there aren't enough homes for sale.

Arizona Housing Market Forecast — Source: Zillow

If mortgage rates go on a decreasing trajectory in 2023, prospective buyers may return to the market to increase the demand. The important thing to take away from the shortage of housing units is that economists anticipate that the price of homes may continue to rise slowly in the AZ housing market in 2023.

On the supply side, it favors the property sellers. The bottom line here is that a stark imbalance between supply and demand continues to put upward pressure on AZ home prices. This partly accounts for the somewhat bold Arizona real estate market forecast for coming years. The other factors are that the economy of Arizona is robust, but the state is struggling with elevated levels of inflation and housing price growth. In 17 different states, the unemployment rate is at an all-time low.

Arizona has a 3.5 percent unemployment rate, a 7.9 % Chg from a year ago. The pace of population increase in Arizona is the fourth fastest in the country. A significant number of states saw a loss in population as a consequence of COVID-19, low birth rates, and migration to neighboring states. Florida, Texas, and Arizona are the three states with the most rapid population increases. Years of underbuilding are a key contributor to the low inventory.

According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Arizona's population is projected to expand by 26.1% between 2020 and 2040 – an increase of 1,897,585 people. As the population is expected to rise yet there are only a few available homes on the market.

This also raises a bit of a concern that in Arizona wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of housing. When prices go up, some buyers can no longer afford to buy and drop out. The faster that pricing goes up, the more buyers tend to drop out, at least in a healthy market. Mortgage rates also play an impact here. In the past few years, interest rates have remained at historically low levels.

This is one of the causes that contributed to a countrywide increase in home-buying activity. However, rates have increased somewhat during the previous several months in 2022. If rates continue to rise, the Arizona real estate market might experience a general cooling trend. However, the persistent supply deficit is projected to “outweigh” this effect, guaranteeing that the AZ housing market will stay competitive long into 2023.

Of course, there is also a great deal of uncertainty in the air. From escalating inflation to the conflict in Ukraine, several elements might affect the economy in the future. Consequently, it is difficult to make reliable projections for the Arizona real estate market or any other market in the United States.

Here's the median price of a home in some of the counties of Arizona (source: Realtor.com)

The data from Realtor.com shows the median listing home price and listing price per square foot for various counties in Arizona. Maricopa County has the highest number of homes for sale and rent, with a median listing home price of $549.5K and a listing price per square foot of $284. Coconino County has the highest median listing home price of $720K, while Cochise County has the lowest median listing home price of $299.9K. The data indicate that the housing market in Arizona is diverse and offers options for buyers with different budgets.

Counties	Median Listing Home Price	Listing $/SqFt	For Sale	For Rent
Maricopa County	$549.5K	$284	19,250	11,158
Pima County	$397.9K	$222	5,135	1,498
Yavapai County	$628K	$323	4,451	289
Pinal County	$399K	$211	5,431	854
Mohave County	$412.9K	$246	4,676	328
Coconino County	$720K	$375	1,447	234
Navajo County	$480K	$286	1,579	31
Gila County	$499K	$295	755	24
Yuma County	$335K	$206	813	194
Cochise County	$299.9K	$174	1,603	125

Arizona's housing market has over 900,000 renter households, accounting for 36% of the total number of households. According to a report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC), rental prices in Arizona have become out of reach for many residents. For too many low-income workers, wages have not kept pace with rising rents and home prices. Workers need to make $21.10 an hour to afford a 2-bedroom rental at a fair-market rate.

In Arizona, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,097. To afford this level of rent and utilities — without paying more than 30% of income on housing — a household must earn $3,658 monthly or $43,892 annually. Assuming a 40-hour workweek, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into an hourly Housing Wage of $21.10.

The minimum wage in Arizona is $12.00/hr and the Average Renter Wage is $17.46. Cost-burdened is defined as spending more than 30% of one’s monthly income on housing and utilities. Neighborhoods in west and South Phoenix are the most cost-burdened. In some cases, more than 50% of households are paying 30% or more of their income on housing costs, while less than 29% of renting households are housing cost-burdened in the north.

Flagstaff MSA is the most expensive MSA where you need an hourly wage of $24.35 to afford a 2-bedroom rental. The second most expensive MSA is Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, where you need an hourly wage of $22.56 to afford a 2-bedroom rental.

Arizona Housing Affordability — Source: The National Low Income Housing Coalition

Between 2010 and 2018, the City of Phoenix’s median income increased by only 10%, median rent increased by over 28%, and the median home price increased by over 57% during this time. In 2018, half of Phoenix renters were considered housing-cost burdened, 25% of homeowners were housing-cost burdened and altogether 36% of the entire population is housing-cost burdened. According to a report by Phoenix.gov, 65 % of households that fall within or below the moderate-income range would require some amount of subsidy to achieve housing that is considered affordable at their income level.

Sources:

https://www.zillow.com/az/home-values/
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Arizona/overview
https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/how-arizona-s-population-will-change-in-the-next-20-years/article_86c80054-4e38-5825-b0d1-ede98be1c649.html

Housing Market Forecast 2024 & 2025: Predictions for Next 5 Years

September 21, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Are you curious about what the next 5 years hold for the U.S. housing market? The housing market is a complex and ever-changing landscape, making it difficult to predict with certainty what the next five years will hold. However, based on current trends and expert opinions, there are a few key things that we can expect to see in the years to come. In this article, we'll dive into the housing market predictions for the next 5 years and what they could mean for buyers and sellers.

Overall, the housing market is expected to remain strong in the next five years. However, there are some key factors that could impact the market, such as rising interest rates and a growing supply of homes.

Home prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace. The rapid rise in home prices that we saw in recent years is likely to slow down in the next few years. However, home prices are still expected to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace.
The supply of homes for sale will increase. The lack of available homes for sale has been a major driver of rising home prices in recent years. However, as more homes are built and come onto the market, we can expect to see some relief from the supply shortage.
Mortgage rates will rise. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat inflation. This has made it more expensive to borrow money, which has led to a decline in demand for homes. However, in the subsequent years, a reversal in this trend is projected, as interest rates are anticipated to gradually recede, potentially culminating in a resurgence of demand in the housing market.
The housing market will remain competitive. Even with rising interest rates and a growing supply of homes, the housing market is still expected to remain competitive in the next few years. This is due to a number of factors, including strong job growth, population growth, and a limited supply of land.

While these trends offer valuable insights into the future of the housing market, there are additional factors that warrant consideration. Let's get into more detail about these trends and make predictions about how they will affect the housing market. The housing market is a crucial component of the US economy, and predicting its future trends and fluctuations can be difficult, especially as external factors can influence the market.

Some economists are more hopeful, but even those who predicted price increases through 2023 are changing their tune. The US housing market is expected to continue to cool off in 2023 after a 40% boom during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Rising interest rates will increase the cost of mortgages for new buyers, but prices are unlikely to fall as they did during the 2008 market crash, as lending standards have become more robust. The market was driven higher during the Covid-19 pandemic by record low borrowing rates, encouraging purchases by first-time buyers, and a lack of supply because of underbuilding. Analysts and economists have different opinions on whether prices will be flat or collapse in the next five years. However, they agree that the housing market will experience a slowdown in the coming years.

ALSO READ: Will There Be a Drop in Home Prices in 2023?

The US housing market is driven by the supply of properties on the market and interest rates, which are used to set mortgage rates. In 2021, the median US existing home price climbed by 16.9% to $346,900, with sales of 6.12 million reaching their highest level since 2006. The market was driven by record-low interest rates, strong growth in prices and rentals for single-family homes, low foreclosure rates, and the 15-year high in sales.

However, the pandemic-driven boom came to an end in 2022. December’s existing-home sales reached a 4.02 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. December’s sales of existing homes weakened by 34.0% from December 2021, marking eleven consecutive months of home sales declines. December’s annual figure of 5.03 was the lowest since 2014 when the sales pace was at 4.94 million.

Analysts and economists expect the US housing market to cool in 2023 but differ on whether prices will be flat as compared to the previous or collapse. The US Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to raise interest rates, which will likely lead to a slowdown in the housing market. However, prices are unlikely to fall as they did during the 2008 market crash, as lending standards have become more robust.

ALSO READ: Latest U.S. Housing Market Trends

In the next five years, the US housing market is predicted to experience a slowdown, with prices either flat or experiencing a modest decline. According to a report by Zillow, home values are projected to increase by 5.5% over the next year, slower than the 16.9% increase seen in 2021. Zillow predicts that home values will increase by 3.5% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026. The report also notes that the number of homes for sale will continue to be low, putting upward pressure on prices.

Looking further into the next five years, the US housing market is forecasted to see a slowdown in price growth, with some experts predicting a plateau in home prices while others foresee a moderate decline. The predicted slowdown is due to a combination of factors such as rising interest rates, an increase in the supply of homes, a decrease in demand, and affordability challenges for buyers.

Rising interest rates are expected to make it more expensive for buyers to borrow money to purchase homes. Mortgage rates have been at record lows for several years, but many economists predict that they will begin to rise in the coming years. Higher interest rates will decrease the buying power of potential buyers and lead to a decrease in demand, which will put downward pressure on prices.

Another factor contributing to the predicted slowdown in the housing market is an increase in the supply of homes. The lack of supply was one of the factors that drove the recent boom in home prices, but the situation is expected to change as new home construction increases. In addition, some homeowners who were hesitant to sell during the pandemic are expected to put their homes on the market in the coming years, increasing the inventory of homes for sale.

The overall affordability of homes is also expected to play a role in the future of the housing market. With home prices at record highs, many buyers are struggling to afford homes, particularly first-time homebuyers. This affordability challenge, combined with rising interest rates, could lead to a decline in demand and therefore a decline in prices.

Despite the predicted slowdown, it is important to note that many experts do not expect a crash in the US housing market similar to the one seen in 2008. Lending standards have become more robust, which should help prevent widespread defaults and foreclosures. In addition, the current economic climate is much different than it was in 2008, with a strong labor market and a more stable financial sector.

While the US housing market is expected to see a slowdown in price growth over the next five years, experts do not expect a crash similar to the one seen in 2008. Factors such as rising interest rates, an increase in the supply of homes, and affordability challenges for buyers are expected to contribute to the slowdown, but the overall health of the economy and lending standards should help prevent a catastrophic collapse.

Housing Market Predictions: Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years

There is an abundance of speculation regarding the forecast of the housing market in 2023. However, what about the real estate forecasts for 2024, 2025, and so on? Although, it is quite difficult to forecast the housing market for the next five years here is an insight into what most experts predict can happen.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the real estate and land use sectors. These effects will continue to impact the demand and supply of regional housing markets over the next five years. Emerging technologies, changing demographics, the state of local job markets, and the rise of remote work are some of the trends expected to shape the housing market in the future.

The U.S. News Housing Market Index provides a data-driven overview of the housing market nationwide and serves as one of the authoritative sources for the information presented in this article. While it is possible for median home prices to fall by 5% in 2024, if mortgage rates decline faster than predicted, home prices could remain mostly flat through the end of 2024.

However, if real incomes rise faster than inflation, the combination of extra purchasing power plus lower mortgage rates could boost affordability, home sales, and prices. If real incomes rise from 2025 through 2027, home prices will likely rise again by approximately 1% to 2% above the current inflation rate. However, it will likely take some time to reach the home value heights of mid-2022.

Housing Market Predictions for 2024

The year 2024 is expected to bring more stability to the housing market after a few years of uncertainty. With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

According to the U.S. News Housing Market Index, the national housing shortage will continue through the end of the 2020s, making it a seller's market in many regions. The National Association of Home Builders predicts that the national housing shortage will last through the end of the 2020s. Due to the estimated pent-up demand for housing, which ranges from 1.5 million to nearly 3.8 million homes, it will take time for the nation's builders to find suitable land, skilled labor, and materials to create a much-needed supply.

The rising cost and consequences of climate change will also impact the housing market in 2024. Homebuyers and builders will have to factor in the costs of building homes that are resilient to climate change and extreme weather events. The total cost of homeownership will become a key metric, taking into account not only the purchase price and mortgage rates but also property taxes, maintenance costs, insurance premiums, and other expenses.

Housing Market Predictions for 2025

In 2025, the housing market is expected to start picking up again, with home prices rising by approximately 1% to 2% above the current inflation rate. This increase will be due to a combination of factors such as the rise in real incomes, lower mortgage rates, and increased affordability. However, it may take some time to reach the home value heights of mid-2022.

More buyers are expected to join with friends and family members to purchase homes, as intergenerational households, grown children “boomeranging” homes, and families created from friendships increasingly pool multiple income sources to purchase homes and avoid the uncertainty of housing costs as renters.

The ways homes are built are also expected to change in 2025. Emerging technologies such as 3D printing, factory-built structural components, and software that minimizes the waste of materials are likely to become more common in the construction industry. These methods are expected to improve building quality while speeding up construction timelines.

Housing Market Predictions for 2026

In 2026, the housing market is expected to continue its upward trend, with home prices rising at a moderate pace. The pent-up demand for housing is expected to be supplied between 2025 and 2030, according to the National Association of Home Builders. However, the changing demographics by 2030 will result in lower demand for new housing, which could lead to a slowdown in construction activity.

The trend of more buyers joining with friends and family members to purchase homes is expected to continue in 2026, as the rising cost of housing and the desire for more space and privacy drives people to pool their resources. This trend is likely to result in more multi-generational households and co-living arrangements.

The total cost of homeownership is expected to become an even more important metric in 2026, as buyers and builders factor in the cost of climate change and other external factors. The rising cost of insurance and building materials, along with the need to adapt to a changing climate, will make it essential for homeowners to consider the total cost of homeownership when making purchasing decisions.

Housing Market Predictions for 2027

Predicting the housing market for 2027 is a challenging task as it depends on various factors such as economic growth, interest rates, population growth, and government policies. However, based on the current trends and projections, it is possible to make some predictions. One potential trend that could affect the housing market in 2027 is the continued urbanization of populations.

This means that more people are moving from rural areas to urban areas, which will create a higher demand for housing in cities. As a result, there may be more construction of apartment buildings and townhouses to accommodate this growing population. Another factor that could influence the housing market is the continued rise of technology. With advancements in technology, people are becoming more mobile and can work from anywhere in the world.

This could lead to an increase in remote working, which may cause more people to relocate to suburban and rural areas. This, in turn, could lead to an increase in demand for single-family homes in these areas. In addition to these trends, it is also important to consider economic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and job growth.

Interest rates are a crucial factor in the housing market, as they affect the cost of borrowing money for a mortgage. If interest rates remain low, this could encourage more people to buy homes, leading to a rise in demand and prices. However, if interest rates rise too quickly, this could make it more difficult for people to afford a mortgage, leading to a decline in demand and prices.

Finally, government policies could also impact the housing market in 2027. For example, changes to zoning laws or building codes could affect the supply of housing, leading to changes in prices. Similarly, changes to tax laws could also impact the affordability of homes, leading to changes in demand.

In conclusion, the next few years are likely to bring significant changes to the housing market, with a combination of factors such as changing demographics, emerging technologies, and the impact of climate change driving demand and supply. The National Association of Home Builders predicts that the national housing shortage will last through the end of the 2020s, and the cost of ownership will become a key metric for buyers.

Despite the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and other external factors, the housing market is expected to remain strong, with opportunities for both buyers and sellers. It is important for all stakeholders to keep a close eye on the latest trends and developments in the market to make informed decisions.

These predictions and guesses provided are based on current trends and historical data. However, they are still subject to numerous variables and factors that may impact the housing market in unforeseen ways. Therefore, please note that these predictions and guesses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Any decision made based on this information is solely at your own risk.

Will it Become a Buyer's Real Estate Market?

The US housing market has seen skyrocketing home prices for the past two years, with a shortage of inventory, low-interest rates, and high demand fueling the market. However, according to the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, this trend is expected to shift in the coming years. The report surveyed 107 housing market experts and economists from August 16–27, 2022. In this section, we will explore the predictions for when a buyer's market is expected to arrive and what the housing market will look like in the years to come.

2023: Expect a Shift in Favor of Buyers

According to the survey, the majority of panelists (56%) expect a significant shift in favor of buyers within the next year, making 2023 the year of the buyer. This shift is due to several factors, including sky-high mortgage costs, which are driving down competition among home shoppers. This shift is expected to exert additional pressure on the rental market, as priced-out potential homebuyers turn to rent.

However, the report also found that metros in the South and Midwest are the least likely to see price declines over the next year. In contrast, vacation market areas are most likely to see price declines. The panelists also predicted that rent growth and inflation should outpace stocks and home price appreciation over the next year.

2024: Further Decrease in Home Prices

While 56% of panelists predict a buyer's market in 2023, another 24% predict that the housing market shift would come in 2024. This prediction shows that the trend of a buyer's market will continue to strengthen over the next few years. Inexpensive Midwest markets, such as Columbus, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, are expected to see the least decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Fast-growing markets in the South, such as Atlanta, Nashville, and Charlotte, are also expected to retain their heat. However, markets that saw some of the largest growth over the course of the pandemic, including Boise, Austin, and Raleigh, are projected to cool the fastest.

2025: Further Consolidation of the Buyer's Market

As per the survey, 13% of the panelists expect the market to favor home buyers in 2025. This further solidifies the buyer's market trend, which has been building up since 2023. Suburban and exurban areas are predicted by the panel to retain their heat over the next 12 months, while vacation areas and urban areas were considered the most likely to see price declines.

Overall, the report suggests that the US housing market will undergo a significant shift in the coming years, with home prices declining and a shift towards a buyer's market. This change is a result of several factors, including rising mortgage rates, a shortage of inventory, and sky-high prices that have pushed many prospective buyers to the sidelines.

Although this shift is expected to benefit buyers, high and rising rents could cut further into their ability to save up for a down payment, making it harder for some to transition from renting to owning. As the housing market continues to evolve, it will be important to monitor these trends to understand the implications for the broader economy.

References

https://www.zillow.com/research/daily-market-pulse-26666/
https://www.zillow.com/research/zhpe-q3-2022-buyers-market-31481/
https://capital.com/housing-market-predictions-for-next-5-years
https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/housing-market-index/articles/housing-market-predictions-for-the-next-5-years
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly#

Southern California Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast 2023

September 19, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

As we delve into the heart of the fall season, the real estate landscape in Southern California continues to captivate both buyers and sellers alike. August 2023 witnessed crucial developments in the Southern California housing market. Here's a comprehensive overview of the median sold prices and sales data for existing single-family homes, providing insights into the region's real estate dynamics.

Median Sold Prices

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® presents a comprehensive overview of the region's median sold prices for existing single-family homes and the corresponding sales figures. The median sold prices for existing single-family homes in August 2023 across various counties in Southern California were as follows:

Southern California: $830,000
Los Angeles: $882,020
Orange: $1,310,000
Riverside: $618,000
San Bernardino: $495,000
San Diego: $1,000,000
Ventura: $915,000

The median sold prices reflect varying degrees of increase across the counties, indicating a dynamic market with price fluctuations. Notably, Orange County saw a 9.2% year-over-year increase, showcasing robust growth.

Sales Data

Examining the sales data for August 2023 reveals the following trends in comparison to the previous month (July 2023) and the same period last year (August 2022) in terms of month-to-month and year-over-year percentage changes:

Southern California: 0.0% (MTM) / 4.4% (YTY)
Los Angeles: 3.6% (MTM) / 3.2% (YTY)
Orange: 0.8% (MTM) / 9.2% (YTY)
Riverside: 0.5% (MTM) / -0.3% (YTY)
San Bernardino: 2.1% (MTM) / 4.7% (YTY)
San Diego: 3.2% (MTM) / 12.8% (YTY)
Ventura: -0.5% (MTM) / 3.5% (YTY)

The sales data portrays a mixed picture, with varying sales performance across the counties. Notably, San Diego exhibited a 12.8% year-over-year increase, showcasing robust sales growth compared to the same period last year.

These insights into median sold prices and sales data provide a glimpse into the diverse dynamics of the Southern California housing market in August 2023. Prospective buyers and investors can leverage this data to make informed decisions based on specific preferences and goals.

ALSO READ: California Housing Market Forecast 2023: Will Price Drop?

Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

The housing market in the United States, and notably in Southern California, has been impacted as a direct result of rising mortgage rates. As a result of falling sales and rising inventory, a growing number of potential buyers and sellers are pondering whether or not home prices will fall in 2023.

Forecasting the Southern California Housing Market for the Rest of 2023

As we delve into the latter part of 2023, it's imperative to gauge the trajectory of the Southern California housing market based on recent trends and data available up to August. Here's a forecast for the housing market for the remainder of the year.

1. Price Trends

Median home prices in Southern California have shown a mix of stability and growth. While some counties experienced modest price increases, others remained relatively steady. For instance, Orange County exhibited a noteworthy 9.2% year-over-year increase in median prices. However, a decrease in the percentage of Realtors anticipating price hikes, suggests a potential slowdown in price growth. It's likely that prices will continue to increase but at a more moderate pace in the coming months.

2. Sales Activity

The sales data indicates a varied sales performance across counties. While some regions witnessed healthy year-over-year sales growth, others faced declines. San Diego stood out with a substantial 12.8% increase in sales compared to the same period last year. However, considering the recent slowdown and fluctuations in sales, it's expected that the market will remain relatively stable, with moderate growth expected in some areas.

3. Inventory and Supply

The housing supply has been a significant factor influencing the market dynamics. Active listings have consistently been on a downward trend, contributing to the competitive environment and potential price increases. With a cautious outlook on price hikes from Realtors and an increase in the percentage of Realtors expecting more listings, it's anticipated that the supply situation might gradually improve. This could provide buyers with more options and potentially ease the upward pressure on prices.

4. Economic Factors

Economic indicators, such as interest rates and employment rates, play a crucial role in shaping the housing market. The recent increase in interest rates might have initially impacted sales but could stabilize in the coming months. As economic conditions improve, and with the potential moderation of interest rates, buying sentiments may improve, giving the market a boost towards the end of the year.

Considering these trends and factors, the Southern California housing market is expected to maintain a relatively stable trajectory for the rest of 2023. Moderate price increases, steady sales, potential improvement in inventory, and favorable economic conditions are likely to define the market in the upcoming months.

However, it's essential to remember that real estate markets can be influenced by various unpredictable factors. Hence, regular monitoring of market updates and consulting with real estate professionals for the latest insights is highly recommended for those looking to make informed decisions in the housing market.

Bay Area Housing Market Prices & Forecast

Los Angeles Real Estate Marke Prices And Forecast

San Diego Real Estate Market Forecast

Sacramento Real Estate Market Prices & Forecast

Sources:

https://www.car.org/
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

Home Value Appreciation in 2023

Inventory Constraints and Price Pressures

Projected Growth from July 2023 to July 2024

Impact on Sales Volume

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Drop Most by July 2024

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Increase Most by July 2024

Summary of Experts' Forecasts for the Housing Market in 2023

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: What Do Market Trends Predict?

Optimistic Trends Ahead

Key Findings

June 2023 Housing Market Analysis and Forecast

Current Home Price Trends

Forecasted Price Trends

Analyst Insights

Regional Variation

Metropolitan Area Analysis

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

Identifying High-Risk Markets

Understanding the Implications

Informed Decision-Making

U.S. House Price Index – March 2023

U.S. House Price Index Report – 4Q 2022: FHFA HPI®

Conclusion: Will Housing Prices Drop in 2023?

Housing Market Predictions for 2024

Zillow's Optimistic Forecast for the Housing Market

Regional Variations

Top 10 MSAs Where Home Prices Will Grow by July 2024

Alternate Views

Housing Market Predictions Until June 2024

Year-Over-Year Growth and Monthly Trends

Identifying Housing Markets at Risk of Price Decline

National Housing Forecast: Steady Price Increases

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

Housing Market Predictions For the Next Few Years

Current Arizona Housing Market Snapshot

Arizona Housing Sales Metrics

Regional Trends and Forecast

Are Arizona Housing Prices Dropping?

What Will Happen to the Arizona Housing Market?

Here's the median price of a home in some of the counties of Arizona (source: Realtor.com)

Housing Market Predictions: Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years

Housing Market Predictions for 2024

Housing Market Predictions for 2025

Housing Market Predictions for 2026

Housing Market Predictions for 2027

Will it Become a Buyer's Real Estate Market?

2023: Expect a Shift in Favor of Buyers

2024: Further Decrease in Home Prices

2025: Further Consolidation of the Buyer's Market

Median Sold Prices

Sales Data

Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

Forecasting the Southern California Housing Market for the Rest of 2023

1. Price Trends

2. Sales Activity

3. Inventory and Supply

4. Economic Factors

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