Housing Market Forecast Archives

Housing Market Forecast 2024 & 2025: Predictions for Next 5 Years

December 2, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Predictions for Next 5 Years

Here's what some of the experts predict will happen in the housing market in the next five years. According to Zillow, the current typical value of homes in the United States is $357,589. United States home values have gone up 13.5% over the last twelve months and are predicted to rise by 1.2% by October 2023. Home values remained nearly flat from September to October (+0.1%), as buyers and sellers potentially settled on a new market equilibrium.

The housing market forecast remained generally unchanged in October, as the housing market continued to slow amid rising mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty. Zillow projects home values remain flat through the end of the year, and increase by 1.2% in the twelve months ending October 2023. Many sellers are waiting for the market to cool down, at least evidenced by the flow of new for-sale listings hitting the market, now down 23.9% from last year’s flow.

Fewer homes are being listed for sale, which may force more listings to reduce their prices to match decreasing housing demand. These long-term housing predictions may change as the housing market rebalances and faces headwinds. Buyers and sellers face rising and fluctuating mortgage rates. Demand is capped and prices are lowered by affordability barriers at record highs. New listings are lower than a year earlier, supporting prices but limiting sales. As year-end approaches, the housing market faces considerable downside risks.

Zillow expects home value growth to continue to slow over the coming months.
Zillow’s home sales forecast now calls for 5.2 million existing home sales in the calendar year 2022.
This forecast is up slightly from last month’s expectations for 5.1 million sales.
The forecast is up following a better-than-expected reading on home sales in August.
However, the housing market predictions for 2023 and the long term are bleaker.
The recent reductions in mortgage applications and pending house sales indicate significant negative risks to home sales volume through 2023.
Las Vegas (-2.3%) and Austin (-2.2%) saw the sharpest home value declines in October.

Also Read: The Latest U.S. Housing Market Report

National home values were still rising by double digits over the previous year, but at a much slower rate than in the spring. Affordability constraints have triggered a power rebalancing in the housing market. Home sales are predicted to stay lower than in recent years – at least for the near future predictions. Year-over-year home price growth slowed in the third quarter as mortgage rates rose sharply, resulting in worsening housing affordability.

With mortgage rates still rising (at 7.08 percent as of this writing), resulting in rapidly declining home purchase demand, home prices are expected to fall further in the near term. Some housing markets are on the verge of a drop in home values within the next 12 months. Home prices are expected to dip over the next 12 to 18 months before stabilizing and then recovering, according to experts. Overall the predictions for the next five years are that home price appreciation is likely to range between 15 and 25%, but they will be uneven.

A drop in demand due to rising mortgage rates causes homes to stay on the market longer and slows price increases. Many would-be sellers are tied to low rates, making the switch to a more expensive mortgage difficult, and reducing inventories. This rebalancing gives wealthy purchasers more time to make decisions, less competition, and greater negotiation leverage than in recent years.

The forecast for 5.2 million existing home sales in 2022, also reflects recent market changes and continued weakness in leading indicators of the metric. Homebuyers continued to be deterred by mortgage affordability problems, resulting in less competition and a larger supply of available houses. Since last year, the housing market has cooled dramatically, and homes are now staying on the market for much longer, whether they sell or not.

Days on Zillow – a measure of the median amount of time a for-sale listing has been on the market – was 54 days as of the week of October 16, up from the series' lowest-ever recorded figure of just 19 days in early April and 38 days in the same week in 2021. At this rate, Days on Zillow will likely reach 68 by the end of the year, ten days higher than it was at the end of 2021.

However, this expected level would still be significantly below pre-pandemic time on the market, demonstrating that some market competition exists, even as purchasers drawback in the face of affordability issues, owing in part to a slow influx of new for-sale listings. The pace of buying has slowed as well. The share of inventory that has been on the market for at least 60 days rose to 46% in mid-October.

As rates, and thus mortgage payments, stay high, many potential buyers are being priced out of the market, and affordability will likely not be on their side any time soon. Sellers who list their home today could expect it to be on the market until Christmas, which is about two weeks later than what would have been predicted last year. While this may appear to be a long predicted wait in comparison to last year's inferno-hot circumstances, it's crucial to note that this time on the market is still far below pre-pandemic standards.

Housing Market Forecast 2024, 2025, 2026

There is an abundance of speculation regarding the forecast of the housing market in 2023. However, what about the real estate forecasts for 2023, 2025, and so on? Although, it is quite difficult to forecast the housing market for the next five years here is an insight into what most experts predict can happen.

Mortgage rates are at their highest point in 20 years, which is having a chilling effect on the housing market and driving down prices. But as supply remains constrained, housing prices in many U.S. markets have not yet begun to level off. Some experts have predicted the future of the housing market over the next five years. Only an oversupply can cause a crash.

The housing shortfall will last another year, with supply eventually catching up with demand by five years. The seller's market will persist as long as home inventory stays low. By five years, it is predicted to become a balanced housing market in which neither buyer nor seller has a monopoly. Instead, negotiation power between parties will be more equal and will vary depending on the circumstances.

Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun believes we are likely to see total price growth across the country of between 15% – 25% over the next five years. This forecast is likely to manifest as a decline in the coming year, a plateau in 2024, and then a period of relatively robust growth.

According to Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst at Bankrate, over the next five years, the US housing market is predicted to generate an average annual return in the mid to low single digits. In the long term, we are aware that real estate provides consistent returns above the rate of inflation. The longer the time frame, the more certain we can be about the general direction of travel, which has historically been upward in the real estate market.

According to Goldman Sachs, home prices in the United States will fall 5 to 10% over the next year. According to the same Goldman Sachs research, the housing market will bottom out in late 2023. Prices are projected to level off and remain relatively stable until mid-2024, so a turnaround is not anticipated to occur quickly.

Strong household finances and a relative lack of available homes in the United States could cushion a slowdown in the housing market. The economists believe it is unlikely that there will be a large wave of forced sales in the United States because a recession would likely be mild, the housing market is tight, mortgage quality is high, and the majority of mortgages have a fixed interest rate.

30-year fixed rate mortgage will remain around seven percent for the rest of 2022 and most of 2023. Assuming no major shocks occur, we should see rates of 5.5–6% within the next two years. Despite the fact that the residential real estate market has been exhibiting bubble-like characteristics, most experts do not anticipate a housing market crash. However, housing slowdowns brought on by rising mortgage rates have a tendency to weigh on GDP by reducing residential investment and weakening consumption.

The Zillow home price expectations survey found that the housing market is likely to become a buyer's market by 2023. The panel also predicts rent growth to outpace inflation during the next 12 months, as priced-out potential home buyers exert additional pressure on the rental market.

When will the housing market turn into a buyer's market, according to the panel?

The majority of panelists (56%) forecast a big shift in favor of buyers within the next year (sometime in 2023).
All 107 survey respondents project home price deceleration in 2023.
The share of panelists who believe their long-term outlook might be too optimistic jumped up to 67% from 56% last quarter.
Another 24% predicted that the housing market shift would come in 2024.
13% expect the market to favor home buyers in 2025.
While just 8% expect that to happen by sometime in 2026 or sometime in the next five years.
Metros in the South and Midwest are the least likely to see price declines over the next year.
Vacation market areas are most likely to see price declines.
Rent growth and inflation should outpace stocks and home price appreciation over the next year.

Housing Markets Which Are Predicted to See a Decline in Home Prices

Prospective buyers are finally seeing a calmer market after the frantic rush for real estate over the last two years. Those who can still afford to own a home are quickly regaining lost leverage, but the transition to a more balanced market is still in its early stages. Home buyers priced out of the market face additional challenges, as high and rising rents may reduce their ability to save for a down payment even further.

According to survey respondents, the inexpensive Midwest markets that are least likely to see home price declines over the next 12 months are Columbus, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, with only 36% reporting that home price declines from current levels were likely over the next 12 months. A majority of panelists expect fast-growing Southern markets like Atlanta, Nashville, and Charlotte to keep their hot streak going, with 44% predicting declines.

Markets expected to cool the fastest — with 77% of respondents expecting declines — are those that experienced the most growth during the pandemic, such as Boise, Austin, and Raleigh. The panel expects suburban and exurban areas to retain their heat over the next 12 months, while vacation and urban areas are expected to see price declines.

Rent growth should remain strong in the short term as high home prices keep many would-be first-time buyers in the rental market. Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to grow more than inflation, stocks, and home values. The panelists predict an average of 5.4% rent growth throughout 2023 – lower than the 8.6% annual growth they expect to see by the end of this year, but still higher than what Zillow data show to be just under 4% annual growth in the years prior to the pandemic.

Housing Market Predictions For Next 5 Years — Source: Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey

Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years

According to some experts, the real estate forecast for the next 5 years shows that it will be a balanced market. Despite declining buyers' optimism that now is a good time to buy a house, the number of households interested in becoming homeowners remains high. This is especially true for younger homebuyers, who are likely first-time buyers and are struggling to save for a down payment as rents continue to reach record highs.

Simultaneously, seller expectations for larger down payments appear to be increasing, fueled by a still-competitive housing market and repeat buyers with relatively more available equity. The housing market is unlikely to shift from a seller's to a buyer's market anytime soon. Rising mortgage rates may take some of the steam out of the market, allowing inventory to rise slightly. It would also slow the rate of home price appreciation and reduce the possibility of a red-hot housing market resulting in an overheated market.

The supply of available homes is so low that even a significant drop in demand due to higher interest rates will not turn this into a buyer's real estate market, according to industry experts. Because there are not enough houses available to meet demand, home prices will continue to rise, but the combination of rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates means fewer people will be able to afford to buy.

There would still be continuous price appreciation, scarcity of inventory, and good demand. Some markets will experience lower appreciation rates than others, with the Sunbelt performing particularly well. Home prices do not appear to be decreasing, even in some of the country's most expensive markets, the tier-one markets.

CoreLogic expects to see a more balanced housing market, with year-over-year appreciation slowing to 3.9% by Sept 2023. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from September 2022 to October 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 3.9% from September 2022 to September 2023.

Nationally, home prices increased 11.4% year over year in September 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.5% in September 2022 compared with August 2022. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (23%), South Carolina (17.6%), and Tennessee (17.4%). Large cities continued to experience price increases in September, with Miami on top at 25.6%, followed by Phoenix at 13.8%, and Las Vegas at 13.6% year over year.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Florida is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Bremeton-Silverdale, Washington; Bellingham, Washington; Eugene, Oregon and Tacoma-Lakewood, Washington are also at very high risk for price declines in 2023.

A worldwide research firm, Capital Economics, predicts that the U.S. house price rise will likely slow in 2023, not this year. Capital Economics forecasted that the U.S. housing market will experience a 5 percent decrease in house price growth by mid-2023, followed by a “gradual rebound” to a 3 percent annual price rise by the end of 2024. It's a major analysis that arrives as the U.S. housing market begins to shift, with increasing mortgage rates pricing out or discouraging potential homeowners.

However, the firm does not forecast a spectacular “price decline” or a housing bubble bust similar to that of 2006, which precipitated the global financial crisis and the Great Recession. A 5 percent fall would definitely constitute a price decrease, but it would not cause home prices to spiral out of control. Remember that house prices have risen steadily for several years and surged significantly during the COVID-19 epidemic.

A price drop is noteworthy, but in the grand scheme of things, it is relatively little. Before the housing bubble of 2006, the U.S. housing market was primarily supported by exceedingly risky bank lending methods that produced a synthetic demand for housing, allowing those who could not afford to retain their homes to acquire them. According to analysts, today's market does not have the same circumstances.

According to analysts, today's market does not have the same circumstances. Capital Economic forecasts that mortgage rates would increase to 6.5 percent by 2023. According to Matthew Pointon, a senior property economist at Capital Economics, if home price growth follows our earlier predictions and declines to zero by mid-2023, mortgage payments would remain above their mid-2000s peak until mid-2023.

“That looks unsustainable and house prices are therefore set to fall. However, our previous point about a lack of forced sellers remains. Therefore, we expect lower home demand to lead to a relatively small fall in house prices, with annual growth dropping to -5% (year over year) by mid-2023,” Pointon added. “That would bring the mortgage payment burden back under the mid-2000s level by the start of 2023.”

Where Will Home Prices Rise the Most in 2024?

Fortune magazine reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis, and according to it, home prices will increase by zero percent in 2023—a dramatic decrease from the 19.7 percent price growth the housing market experienced in the last 12 months. However, analysts anticipate that price changes will vary significantly between regions of the United States.

In its analysis, the financial intelligence firm calculated how home prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024. Among the nation’s 414 largest housing markets, Moody’s Analytics forecast model predicts that 210 markets are on the verge of seeing home prices decline over the coming two years and 204 markets are poised to see home prices rise over the coming two years.

These cities are expected to report the biggest rise in home prices in 2024:

Albany, Georgia (5.5 percent)
Casper, Wyoming (4.52 percent)
Columbus, Georgia (4.09 percent)
Rocky Mount, North Carolina (3.97 percent)
San Jose, California (3.83 percent)

References

https://www.zillow.com/research/daily-market-pulse-26666/
https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-2022-hottest-markets-tampa-30413/
https://www.zillow.com/research/zhpe-q3-2022-buyers-market-31481/
https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-home-value-and-sales-forecast-september-2022-31431/#
https://fortune.com/2022/08/15/falling-home-prices-to-hit-these-housing-markets-in-2023-and-2024/
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-housing/us-housing-market-update/surge-in-mortgage-rates-makes-house-price-falls-likely/

AZ Housing Market: Prices And Forecast 2022 & 2023

December 1, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Recent projections for the Arizona housing market indicate that home prices may continue to rise steadily through 2022 and into 2023. The AZ housing market has experienced two consecutive years of record-breaking price rises. Home prices continue to rise as a result of a lack of available properties and high buyer demand. Arizona's real estate market experienced a historic price increase last year.

According to real estate data provider Zillow, the typical property value in Arizona has increased by 17.7% from August 2021 to August 2022. The typical value of homes in Arizona is now $442,859. Home values in AZ have risen by 54.2% over the past two years and 93.2% over the past five years. The housing analysts provide an optimistic housing market forecast for the Arizona region until 2023. Zillow's prediction for Phoenix MSA is a 2.5% growth in home prices between Aug 2022 and Aug 2023.

<<<Read: Will the Housing Market Crash?>>>

The graph below depicts the median or average house value in the region over a number of years. Migration patterns, according to some analysts, are the fundamental reason for this hot housing market. Arizona continues to get a significant number of residents from California, Texas, Illinois, and Washington. There is a limited available supply of homes. Because of the high demand, homebuilders are unable to keep up with supply, and a housing bubble can't burst if there aren't enough homes for sale.

AZ Housing Market Forecast 2023 — Source: Zillow

Arizona Housing Market Forecast 2022 & 2023

Here's Zillow's forecast for the metro areas in Arizona. None of these MSAs of Arizona is predicted to see a home price decline in 2023. Rising home values and listing prices, combined with limited inventory, indicate that Arizona's housing market is tilted toward sellers. This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future unless inventory grows faster than demand or rising interest rates completely dampens the demand to that extent.

Phoenix, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 2.5% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Tucson, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 3.7% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Prescott Valley, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 2.7% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Yuma, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 4.6% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Lake Havasu City, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 4.4% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Flagstaff, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 2.7% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Sierra Vista, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 2.6% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Show Low, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 7.8% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Payson, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 7.2% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Nogales, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 3.2% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.
Safford, AZ home values are forecasted to rise 2.8% between Aug 2022 to Aug 2023.

The most important thing to take away from the shortage of housing units is that economists anticipate that the price of homes will continue to rise within the AZ housing market throughout the years 2022 and 2023. On the supply side, it favors the property sellers. The bottom line here is that a stark imbalance between supply and demand continues to put upward pressure on AZ home prices. This partly accounts for the somewhat bold Arizona real estate market forecast for coming years.

The other factors are that the economy of Arizona is robust, but the state is struggling with elevated levels of inflation and housing price growth. In 17 different states, the unemployment rate is at an all-time low. Arizona has 3.3 percent unemployment. The pace of population increase in Arizona is the fourth fastest in the country. A significant number of states saw a loss in population as a consequence of COVID-19, low birth rates, and migration to neighboring states.

Florida, Texas, and Arizona are the three states with the most rapid population increases. Years of underbuilding are a key contributor to the low inventory. According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Arizona's population is projected to expand by 26.1% between 2020 and 2040 – an increase of 1,897,585 people. As the population is expected to rise yet there are only a few available homes on the market.

This also raises a bit of a concern that in Arizona wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of housing. When prices go up, some buyers can no longer afford to buy and drop out. The faster that pricing goes up, the more buyers tend to drop out, at least in a healthy market.

Mortgage rates also play an impact here. In the past few years, interest rates have remained at historically low levels. This is one of the causes that contributed to a countrywide increase in home-buying activity. However, rates have increased somewhat during the previous several months in 2022. If rates continue to rise, the Arizona real estate market might experience a general cooling trend.

However, the persistent supply deficit is projected to “outweigh” this effect, guaranteeing that the AZ housing market will stay competitive long into 2023. Of course, there is also a great deal of uncertainty in the air. From escalating inflation to the conflict in Ukraine, several elements might affect the economy in the future. Consequently, it is difficult to make reliable projections for the Arizona real estate market or any other market in the United States.

Here's the median price of a home in some of the counties of Arizona (source: Realtor.com)

Arizona Counties	Median Listing Price	$/SqFt
Maricopa County	$530K	$292
Pima County	$385K	$219
Yavapai County	$595K	$312
Pinal County	$427.5K	$225
Mohave County	$389.9K	$238
Coconino County	$699.9K	$384
Navajo County	$450K	$272
Gila County	$475K	$297
Yuma County	$299.9K	$192
Cochise County	$269K	$166

Arizona's housing market has over 900,000 renter households, accounting for 36% of the total number of households. According to a report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC), rental prices in Arizona have become out of reach for many residents. For too many low-income workers, wages have not kept pace with rising rents and home prices. Workers need to make $21.10 an hour to afford a 2-bedroom rental at a fair-market rate.

In Arizona, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,097. To afford this level of rent and utilities — without paying more than 30% of income on housing — a household must earn $3,658 monthly or $43,892 annually. Assuming a 40-hour workweek, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into an hourly Housing Wage of $21.10.

The minimum wage in Arizona is $12.00/hr and the Average Renter Wage is $17.46. Cost-burdened is defined as spending more than 30% of one’s monthly income on housing and utilities. Neighborhoods in west and South Phoenix are the most cost-burdened. In some cases, more than 50% of households are paying 30% or more of their income on housing costs, while less than 29% of renting households are housing cost-burdened in the north.

Flagstaff MSA is the most expensive MSA where you need an hourly wage of $24.35 to afford a 2-bedroom rental. The second most expensive MSA is Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, where you need an hourly wage of $22.56 to afford a 2-bedroom rental.

Arizona Housing Affordability — Source: The National Low Income Housing Coalition

Between 2010 and 2018, the City of Phoenix’s median income increased by only 10%, while, median rent increased by over 28%, and the median home price increased by over 57% during this time. In 2018, half of Phoenix renters were considered housing-cost burdened, 25% of homeowners were housing-cost burdened and altogether 36% of the entire population is housing-cost burdened. According to a report by Phoenix.gov, 65 % of households that fall within or below the moderate-income range would require some amount of subsidy to achieve housing that is considered affordable at their income level.

Sources:

https://www.zillow.com/az/home-values/
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Arizona/overview
https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/how-arizona-s-population-will-change-in-the-next-20-years/article_86c80054-4e38-5825-b0d1-ede98be1c649.html

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: Housing Market Predictions 2023

December 1, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Predictions 2023

Will house prices go down in 2023? Depending on who you ask, the forecast for 2023 is mixed. Most experts in the housing industry predict less buyer demand, lower prices, and higher borrowing rates. Rate increases, along with a shortage of availability, have pushed many purchasers to the sidelines. Home prices may fall slightly, but not drastically as they did in 2008. Some believe that the housing market will continue to outperform compared to the pre-pandemic.

Hence, there is no clarity regarding the housing market forecast for 2023. Most analysts predict that home prices will grow in the majority of the housing markets next year albeit slightly. If inflation persists, the Fed could tighten more than anticipated by the financial markets. This would result in higher mortgage rates, which will impact the U.S. housing market. If inflation falls or a recession develops in the near future, the Fed may soften financial conditions.

In its most recent prediction, Fannie Mae reiterated its opinion that the housing market will push the United States into recession at the beginning of 2023. According to their estimate, home prices could fall in 2023. The slowing effect of rising mortgage rates on the housing market has been mostly predicted, and home values appear to have already begun to trend downward. Looking ahead to the entire year 2023, the ESR group predicts a 1.5% fall in national home prices.

While Zillow predicts that home values will rise in most markets over the next 12 months, it does not expect much growth in the remaining months of 2022. It predicts that home values will fall in 271 markets over the next twelve months. In August, the rate of drop in U.S. home prices was comparable to that of the previous month (FHFA House Price Index).

This is the first time since March 2011 that the index has declined for two consecutive months, according to Will Doerner, Ph.D., a Supervisory Economist with the FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics. Higher mortgage rates continued to exert pressure on demand, significantly slowing the growth of home prices in the nation.

<<<Also Read: Lastest National Housing Market Trends>>>

Will Home Prices Drop in the United States?

Here's when home prices can drop. While this may appear to be oversimplified, it is how markets work. Prices drop when demand is met. There is now an excessive demand for houses in several property markets, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective purchasers. Home construction has increased in recent years, although they are still far behind. Thus, big drops in housing prices would necessitate considerable drops in buyer demand.

Demand falls mostly as a result of higher interest rates or a general weakening of the economy. Rising interest rates would ultimately need far less demand and far more housing supply than we now have. Even if price growth slows this year, a drastic fall in home prices is quite unlikely. As a result, there will be no fall in house values; rather, a pullback, which is natural for any asset class. In the United States, house price growth is forecasted to just “moderate” or slow down in 2022 as well as 2023.

Housing supply will decrease in 2023 to maintain upward pressure on home prices as single-family homebuilding sees a decline next year. In October, the NAHB homebuilders group announced that homeowner confidence has dropped for the tenth consecutive month. According to Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, despite a modestly increased inventory that is mostly attributable to price-weary prospective buyers, housing supply is projected to stay limited in 2023.

As higher interest rates and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers, the single-family homebuilding industry will experience a sharp decline in 2023. “This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. Some analysts have stated that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,' but according to Dietz, the homeownership rate will drop in the next quarters as rising interest rates and building costs continue to price out a substantial proportion of prospective buyers.

According to Mortgage News Daily, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.29% on Monday. This marks the highest 30-year rate in the past 20 years. “Nobody anticipated this turn of events. We had anticipated an interest rate of no more than 5%, and certainly not 7%, “added Evangelou, who went on to say that the National Association of Realtors had to make many adjustments to its forecast throughout the course of this year.

According to the study published by the organization, the median sales price of a home in the United States was $384,800 in September. This is an increase of 8.4% from the price of $355,100 in September 2021. Prices increased across the board. Evangelou stated that assuming a down payment of 10%, the monthly mortgage payment is now $1,000 more expensive than it was a year ago.

If you are new to the housing market, you should familiarise yourself with the following: contingency, foreclosure, and housing market projections. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, stated earlier this month that the housing market may require “a correction” in order to make homes more affordable.

Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012. Between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022, all 50 states and the District of Columbia saw an increase in housing prices. In today's housing market of high mortgage rates, buyers are still driving up property prices, leading homes to sell rapidly. During this pandemic, we saw hyperactive buyers make offers without seeing the property and forego contingencies to win bidding wars in the highly competitive housing market.

The historically low mortgage rates fueled an increase in demand, particularly among millennials. However, they are running into a shortage of available housing and now have to face higher rates of close to 6%. Many buyers are still in hope of finding a home that fits their budget and needs. Despite popular belief that now is not a good time to buy, many home buyers are looking to lock in their monthly housing payments.

Although the housing market is still expected to favor sellers we appear to be at a tipping point in the housing market, where prices have risen so dramatically that buyers are backing off and home sales are slowing down considerably as compared to last year. House prices fell nationwide in August, down 0.7 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®).

House prices rose 11.9 percent from August 2021 to August 2022. The previously reported 0.6 percent price decline in July 2022 remained unchanged, For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from July to August 2022 ranged from -2.0 percent in the Mountain division to +0.4 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +7.4 percent in the Pacific division to +16.2 percent in the South Atlantic division.

Will Home Prices Drop? — **Source: FHFA House Price Index Monthly – October 2022**

Home Prices Are Rising: Quarterly Report (Q2 2022)

U.S. home prices rose 17.7 percent from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 4.0 percent compared to the first quarter of 2022. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.1 percent from May.

“Housing prices grew quickly through most of the second quarter of 2022, but a deceleration has appeared in the June monthly data” said William Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The pace of growth has subsided recently, which is consistent with other recent housing data.”

Note: The report for the third quarter will be released by the end of November.

Key Housing Prices Trends

Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022.
House prices rose in all of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters.
Annual price increases were most significant in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, where prices increased by 36.4 percent
Prices were weakest in Washington Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD), where they increased by 9.1 percent.
Of the nine census divisions, the South Atlantic division recorded the strongest four-quarter appreciation.
It posted a 23.0 percent gain between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022 and a 5.2 percent increase in the second quarter of 2022.
Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the West North Central division, where prices rose by 13.9 percent between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022.

Home Prices Increasing the Fastest in these States?

Florida 29.8 percent
Arizona 25.5 percent
North Carolina 25.2 percent
Montana 24.9 percent
Tennessee 24.3 percent

Where Are Home Prices Increasing the Slowest?

District of Columbia 5.2 percent
North Dakota 10.6 percent
Louisiana 10.8 percent
Minnesota 11.3 percent
Maryland 12.0 percent

house price trends 2022 — Source: FHFA House Price Index Report – 2022 Q2

Housing Market Forecast 2023: Will Home Prices Drop in 2023?

Homeowners, sellers, buyers, and renters may be unimpressed in 2023. As mortgage rates rose in 2022, home sales slowed, leading to a decrease in home price rise and moving the housing market balance away from sellers. A slowing in home price increase won't be enough to make the housing market a buyer's bonanza as mortgage rates continue to rise as the Fed guides the economy to a soft-ish landing.

Homebuyers will benefit from a growing number of homes for sale, but costs will stay high, limiting affordability as budgets tighten. If buyers and sellers have unreasonable expectations, 2023 could be a stalemate. According to Realtor.com, 2023 could be a “nobody's-market” for buyers and sellers. Consumers who are ready for the challenge will need up-to-date information on market conditions, creativity and flexibility to adjust, and a healthy dose of patience in order to create success.

Buyers will have some things to look forward to in 2023. There will be more homes for sale, homes will likely take longer to sell, and buyers will not encounter the intense competition that has been usual in recent years. However, affordability issues keep 2023 from being a huge buyer's market, particularly for first-time homebuyers who have already endured significant problems.

Home sellers should be aware that fewer buyers are projected to be looking for a property in 2023, as rising home prices and mortgage rates drive some prospective purchasers to postpone their purchases. As a result, sellers should expect increased competition from other for-sale postings, lengthier transaction timescales, and more bargaining with buyers.

Here's the forecast for key housing indicators by Realtor.com:

1. Mortgage Rates: 7.4% (avg) and 7.1% (year-end)
2. Existing Home Median Price Appreciation (Y/Y): +5.4%
3. Existing Home Sales (Y/Y | Annual Total): -14.1% to 4.53 million
4. Existing Home For-Sale Inventory (Y/Y): +22.8%
5. Single-Family Home Housing Starts (Y/Y | Annual): -5.4% to 0.9 million
6. Homeownership Rate: 65.7%
7. Rent Growth: +6.3%

Zillow’s home value forecast remained unchanged in October, as the housing market continued to slow amid rising mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty. The home value growth will continue to slow over the coming months. According to Zillow's monthly home value forecast, the national Zillow Home Value Index, which climbed by 12.9% in the twelve months ending in September 2022, is predicted to increase by just 1.3% in the next twelve months ending with September 2023.

This forecast is consistent with last month's predictions, which predicted a 1.2% annual growth. And while Zillow anticipates a slowing of national home price growth to 1.4%, it will vary significantly by the regional markets. A weaker outlook for home sales also factors heavily into the lower forecast for home value appreciation.

Zillow’s home sales forecast now calls for 5.2 million existing home sales in 2022, up slightly from last month’s expectations for 5.1 million sales following a better-than-expected reading on home sales in August. Recent decreases in mortgage applications and pending house sales indicate that there are substantial negative risks to home sales volume in the calendar year 2023.

Metros Where House Prices Will Drop Most by September 2023

Some regional markets are projected to see home price declines. In August, Zillow economists predicted that 123 regional housing markets would see declining home values in the coming year. The number was later revised to 259 regional markets by Zillow economists in September. They now predict that home values will fall in 271 of the nation's 896 regional housing markets between September 2022 and September 2023. Fairbanks tops the list with the highest anticipated decline of 7%.

Metro Area	Change in Values
Minot, ND	-6.4%
Fairbanks, AK	-6%
Alexandria, LA	-5.6%
Helena, AR	-5.1%
Red Bluff, CA	-4.9%

Metros Where House Prices Will Increase Most by September 2023

Zillow still predicts that the vast majority of regional housing markets will see home values appreciating in 2023. Among the 897 regional housing markets that Zillow economists analyzed, 607 are predicted to see rising house prices between Sept 2022 and Sept 2023. Another 19 markets are predicted to remain flat.

Among the regions that are anticipated to have losses in value over the coming year are those that have experienced some of the largest increases in property values over the past year. Only one market in Ohio and one in Washington are forecasted to see year-over-year house price growth of 10% or greater.

Metro Area	Change in Values
Wooster, OH	+13.2%
Aberdeen, WA	+10.3%
Sanford, NC	+8.7%
Kapaa, HI	+8.3%
Pocatello, ID	+8.1%

According to Moody's Analytics' proprietary housing data, as reported by Fortune, home prices will rise 0% next year (2023), a significant decrease from the 19.7 percent price growth experienced by the housing market in the previous year. Analysts predict that price changes will vary significantly across the United States. Moody's predicts that home prices will rise in 183 of the country's 414 largest housing markets in 2023 while falling in 231 others.

According to Moody's analysts, the following five cities will see the greatest year-on-year increases in home prices in 2023:

Albany, Georgia (4.12 percent)
New Bern, North Carolina (4.12 percent)
Augusta, Georgia (3.84 percent)
Hartford, Connecticut (3.73 percent)
Casper, Wyoming (3.29 percent)

The company's analysts expect home prices to drop the lowest in these areas in 2023:

The Villages, Florida (6.96 percent)
Punta Gorda, Florida (6 percent)
Reno (5.57 percent)
Honolulu (5.56 percent)
Spokane, Washington (5.52 percent)

Researchers at Goldman Sachs published a study on August 30 with the title “The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall.” The investment bank's most recent projections indicate that overall activity in the United States home market will be lower by the end of 2022. The company anticipates significant drops in new home sales (down 22% from last year), existing home sales (down 17% from last year), and housing GDP (down 8.9% from last year). And you shouldn't anticipate any relief in the year 2023. Goldman Sachs forecasts additional drops in housing-related metrics such as new home sales (another 8% drop), existing home sales (another 14% loss), and housing GDP (another 9.2% drop) in 2023.

Housing Markets at High Risk of Price Decline in 2023

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through August 2022 with forecasts through August 2023. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 13.5% in August 2022 compared with August 2021.

On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.7% in August 2022 compared with July 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from August 2022 to September 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 3.2% from August 2022 to August 2023.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Bremerton-Silverdale, WA is at very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Bellingham, WA; Boise City, ID; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL and Olympia-Tumwater, WA are also at very high risk for price declines.

Housing Markets at Risk of Price Decline in 2023 — Source: CoreLogic

Will Housing Demand Exceed Supply, Raising Prices in 2023?

The broader outlook from several housing analysts is that housing demand will continue to surge due to several factors. For e.g; the millennials have aged into their prime homebuying years, and they are now the fastest-growing segment of home buyers. In 2018, millennial homeownership was at a record low but the situation has changed markedly. They are no longer holding back when it comes to homeownership.

According to the National Association of REALTORS’ Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, millennials make up the largest share of the homebuying population at 43 percent, the most of any generation – an increase from 37% last year. They are also the most likely generation to use the internet to find the home they ultimately purchase and most likely to use a real estate agent.

The NAR report found that the combined share of younger millennials (23 to 31 years old) and older millennial buyers (32 to 41 years old) rose to 43% in 2021, up from 37% the year prior. Nearly two-thirds of younger millennials, or 65%, located the property they ultimately purchased online, a proportion that steadily declines with older generations. Eighty-seven percent of homebuyers utilized a real estate agent. This percentage was highest among younger millennials (92%) and older millennials (88%).

The study also found that first-time home buying among younger generations is on the rise, with over 4 out of 5 younger millennial home buyers – 81% – purchasing for the first time. Just under half – 48% – of older millennial buyers were first-time buyers. There is a surge of millennial buyers who are maturing into the conventional first-time buyer age bracket. Boomers comprised the highest proportion of house sellers at 42 percent, however, the ratio of millennial sellers has increased from 22 percent to 26 percent over the last year.

Millennials are expected to continue to drive the market and the participation of first-time homebuyers and older millennials is widely forecast to be elevated. Hence, housing prices cannot drop drastically in 2023. Inflation, excessive housing demand, and inadequate supply continue to drive up prices. Recent revisions by economists at Realtor.com have increased their 2022 median sales price appreciation projection for existing properties to 6.6 percent from 2.9 percent.

Many people have been priced out of the housing market by rising rents and rising mortgage rates, which have risen from an average of just 3.2% at the beginning of the year to 5.81% by mid-June. Mortgage rates then topped 7 percent in the last week of October, the highest level in 20 years. This has resulted in a decrease in property sales since more individuals are unable to pay the present high costs. Theoretically, home prices should fall for the remainder of this year and into 2023.

For starters, rising borrowing prices make credit more unaffordable. Second, as the economy continues to deteriorate, mortgage lenders are expected to approve fewer applicants. Although the housing market appears to be headed in the wrong direction, there are some bright spots. Economic forecasters, despite the recent recession, continue to expect robust demand from purchasers (millennials) and high home price increases in the housing market.

With homebuyers active and supply still lacking, the current trend of home prices will not see a reversal. In the last quarter of half of 2022, we are seeing a gradual shift in the real estate market away from sellers to more balanced conditions, with a rise in the number of properties entering the market. Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines. The market is heading to cool off, but house prices will not necessarily fall like crazy.

“The housing sector continues to undergo an adjustment due to the continuous rise in interest rates, which eclipsed 6% for 30-year fixed mortgages in September and are now approaching 7%,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Expensive regions of the country are especially feeling the pinch and seeing larger declines in sales.”

“Despite weaker sales, multiple offers are still occurring with more than a quarter of homes selling above list price due to limited inventory,” Yun added. “The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010 when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”

Despite a sluggish market and waning buyer enthusiasm, we anticipate that home demand will continue to outstrip available inventory. Increasing rental costs should add to this expected development. However, as the number of available homes increases, the demand for housing should decrease owing to affordability concerns. As a result, we are not on the verge of a housing market crash. The current rate of home price growth is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates combined with increased inventory will result in slower home price growth but unlikely any big price decline.

Sources:

https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/reportsplans/Pages/FHFA-Reports.aspx
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-october-2022-31556/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights-october-2022/
https://fortune.com/2022/08/15/falling-home-prices-to-hit-these-housing-markets-in-2023-and-2024/
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-report-shows-share-of-millennial-home-buyers-continues-to-rise

North Carolina Housing Market Forecast 2022 & 2023

November 23, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

The North Carolina housing market continues to be robust in 2022 by a combination of high demand, limited supply, and steadily increasing house selling prices. In June 2022, the typical home in the state of North Carolina was valued at $320,291. That’s a whopping 27.4% increase year-over-year (YoY), and Zillow predicts the market will continue to rise over the next twelve months. The second quarter of 2023 will see higher home prices in North Carolina than the second quarter of the current year.

How is the North Carolina Housing Market?

From June 2021 to June 2022, new listings were up 16.1%. 18,820 new listings were added in June but the still the average months of supply is 2 months, down year over year, according to Redfin.

In June 2022, home prices in North Carolina were up 14.5% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $364,900.
There were 17,079 homes sold in June this year, up from 15,671 homes sold in June last year.
The median days on the market were 22 days, down 14% year over year.
57.3% of homes in North Carolina sold below list price, down 0.2 points year over year.
There were only 25.6% of homes that had price drops, up from 9.0% of homes in June last year.
There was a 102.3% sale-to-list price, down 0.0013 points year over year.
If the ratio is above 100%, the home sold for more than the list price.

Are North Carolina Rent Prices Going Up?

Prospective buyers are not the only ones feeling the heat in this property market; tenants have also been scorched. Statewide the average rent price has grown by 29.55% year-over-year. The median rent for all bedrooms and all property types in North Carolina is $1,915. Rent has increased by $165 compared to the previous year, according to Zillow Rentals Data. Rent in North Carolina is 13% lower than the national median.

The median rent price in North Carolina for August 2022 is $1,915.
This is $165 more than August 2021 and $15 more than July 2022.
The median rent in North Carolina is $284 less than the national median.
There are currently 8,349 rentals available in North Carolina.

Will The North Carolina Housing Market Crash?

We continue to hear rumors of a market crash, but local data does not corroborate this at this time. Even if minor, the monthly figures indicate that the market has begun to cool. In June 2022, home prices in North Carolina rose 14.5% annually. Simultaneously, the number of homes sold increased by 7.7%, while the number of properties for sale decreased by 2.0%.

Bottom line: We're not seeing any major home price decline or crash in the North Carolina housing market just yet. The present supply of homes in North Carolina still favors sellers. In June 2022, the number of properties for sale in the state increased by 24.2% year-over-year. The current number of active listings in North Carolina is 16,726, a rise from 13,463 new listings that were added in June 2021.

North Carolina is home to Charlotte, the second-largest financial industry city in the United States after New York. Charlotte is showing no signs of slowing in its quest to be an even more influential financial hub. Charlotte has had substantial growth from the year 2000, despite reasonable delays in the expansion of financial services owing to the 2008 financial crisis. Since 2000, there has been a 47.7% rise in the number of financial industry positions in Charlotte, compared to just an 11.7% increase in the United States as a whole.

<<Read About Charlotte Housing Market Trends in 2022>>>

In 2023, North Carolina is predicted to remain a top-ranked state and relocation destination. The flood of new inhabitants will increase competition and limit housing availability, making North Carolina real estate even tighter. According to YouGov, the state is the fifth-best place to live. The state ranks second in terms of business climate, seventh in terms of education, and seventh in terms of fiscal stability.

North Carolina Housing Supply Graph

North Carolina housing market — Source: FRED

Real Estate Market Statistics in North Carolina & MSA Forecast for 2023

Housing Statistics	Value
Zillow Home Value Index	$320,291
Home Value Change YoY	+27.4%
Average Rent Price Change YoY	+29.55%
Available Housing Inventory For Sale	16,726
Is North Carolina a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market	Seller’s Market
Charlotte MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+11.2%
Raleigh MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+10.6%
Greensboro MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+9.6%
Durham MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+9.9%
Winston-Salem MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+10.7%
Wilmington MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+9.9%
Asheville MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+9.3%

<<Read About Raleigh Housing Market Trends in 2022>>>

Data Sources:

https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
https://www.zillow.com/nc/home-values/
https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/nc/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUNC#
https://www.redfin.com/state/North-Carolina/housing-market
https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/
https://www.propeterra.com/resource-center/charlotte-north-carolina-banking
https://today.yougov.com/topics/travel/articles-reports/2021/04/13/us-states-ranked-best-worst-according-americans

Montana Housing Market Forecast 2022 & 2023

November 23, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

The Montana housing market remains strong in 2022, thanks to a combination of high demand, limited supply, and continuously rising house prices. In June 2022, the typical home in the state of Montana was valued at $448,875. That’s a 25.6% increase year-over-year (YoY), and Zillow predicts the market will continue to rise over the next twelve months. The home prices in Billings, MT are predicted to grow by 7.6% and in Bozeman, the growth rate could be as high as 15.2% by June 2023.

House listing prices are much higher than average and are expected to increase even more in the near future. The second quarter of 2023 will see higher home prices in Montana than the second quarter of the current year. Currently, Montana is a seller's market. Despite the high listing prices, demand in the state remains robust, resulting in rapid property sales. Nevertheless, each city and town has its local real estate trends.

How is the Montana Housing Market in 2022?

Matthew Gardner, the chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, provides the following study of the real estate markets in a few counties in Montana for the second quarter of 2022. Montana added 15,800 new jobs in the past year, which is above average. All of Montana's metro regions have regained pandemic-lost employment.

Montana's June unemployment rate was 2.6%, up from April's 2.3%. Billings had the lowest unemployment rate, followed by Missoula and Great Falls. I'm concerned about the state's labor shortage. The labor force participation rate is only 62.6%, making it difficult for firms to recruit workers.

Will Home Prices Drop in Montana?

The price rise in Montana has not yet slowed, but it is just a matter of time given the shifting market conditions.
Home prices rose 17.8% year over year to an average of $710,428 but were 12.9% lower than in the first quarter of 2022.
Despite rising mortgage rates and inventory levels, sellers remain optimistic thus far.
This is evidenced by the fact that the median list price increased in every county but Gallatin compared to the previous quarter.

Montana Home Sales

In the markets covered by this study, 2,359 homes were sold in the second quarter. This was a 2.9% rise from the previous year and more than double the number of sales in the first quarter.
Higher house sales can be linked to the growth of 124% in the number of residences introduced to the market during the quarter.
Four of the counties featured in this research had an increase in sales year over year while the remaining markets experienced a decline.
Compared to the first quarter, sales increased in all counties except Madison.
The 11.7% increase in pending sales from the first quarter to the second quarter suggests that third-quarter statistics may also be good.

Are Montana Rent Prices Going Up?

Prospective buyers are not the only ones feeling the heat in this property market; renters have also been scorched. Statewide the median rent price is increasing year over year. The median rent for all bedrooms and all property types in Montana is $2,100. The median rent price has increased by $250 compared to the previous year, according to Zillow Rentals Data. Rent in Montana is 5% lower than the national median.

The median rent price in Montana for August 2022 is $2,100 based on 369 rentals available.
This is $250 more than August 2021 and $125 more than July 2022.
The median rent in Montana is $100 less than the national median.

The Montana rental market is highly affordable, even amongst the most highly populated cities. Here is a list of average rent prices in five of the most densely populated Montana cities, including Butte-Silver Bow, Great Falls, Billings, Missoula, and Bozeman, according to Apartment list.

City	Average 1-Bedroom Rent	Average 2-Bedroom Rent
Butte-Silver Bow, MT	$788	$950
Great Falls, MT	$795	$995
Billings, MT	$850	$1,095
Missoula, MT	$1,095	$1,350
Bozeman, MT	$1,750	$1,913

Will The Montana Housing Market Crash?

We continue to hear rumors of a market crash, but local data does not corroborate this at this time. Even if minor, the monthly figures indicate that the market has begun to cool. The increase in Montana house listing prices is causing homes to be on the market for a long. If the pattern continues, the inventory may continue to increase and dampen market activity. There aren't enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand.

Bottom line: We're not seeing any major home price decline or crash in the Montana housing market just yet. The present supply of homes in Montana still favors sellers. In July 2022, the number of properties for sale in the state increased by 44% year-over-year. The current number of active listings in Montana is 3,918, a rise from 2,720 active listings that were added in July 2021, according to Realtor.com's monthly data.

Despite being the fourth biggest state in the US, Montana ranks 44th in population density, with fewer than seven people per square mile on average. This state has more elk and antelope than humans despite its beautiful landscapes and abundant natural resources. Montana is a wonderful option for anyone seeking to escape the bustle of urban centers and take in the pristine alpine air.

Montana's rapid economic growth has lowered its unemployment rate and driven wage growth. According to data from the state labor department, in 2021 Montana added nearly 13,000 new jobs that pay above the state’s median wage. That exceeded the governor’s goal to add a net of 10,000 new jobs that pay more than $50,000. Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte says he has set the same goal to add another 10,000 new jobs in 2022 paying $50,000.

Montana Housing Supply Graph

Montana housing market — Graph Source: FRED

Real Estate Market Statistics in Montana & MSA Forecast For 2023

Zillow Home Value Index	$448,875
Home Value Change YoY	+25.6%
Average Housing Inventory Change YoY	+44%
Available Housing Inventory For Sale	3,918
Is Montana a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market	Seller’s Market
Billings MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+7.6% by June 2023
Kalispell MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+13.1% by June 2023
Bozeman MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+13.8% by June 2023
Great Falls MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+8.2% by June 2023
Helena MSA One Year Home Values Forecast	+9% by June 2023

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