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5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of a Home Price Crash

July 1, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of a Home Price Crash

After years of sizzling growth, things are definitely shifting in the Texas housing market. If you're wondering whether home prices might actually come down in the Lone Star State, you're not alone. And according to recent Zillow forecasts, the answer is a firm yes for some specific locations. In fact, the data points to 5 Texas Housing Markets Set For Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026, with Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater expected to see drops of over 10% by March 2026. This isn't a statewide alarm bell, but it’s a significant heads-up for folks in these particular markets.

5 Texas Housing Markets at High Risk of Double-Digit Price Crash

Now, before we dive into those five areas, let's get a feel for the bigger picture in Texas. As of March 31, 2025, the average Texas home value sits around $307,629. This figure is actually down 1.4% over the past year, which tells us the market has already started to cool off from its previous fever pitch.

Homes are going to pending (meaning an offer has been accepted) in about 33 days on average. Interestingly, only 14.4% of sales are closing above the list price, while a hefty 65.1% are selling for under the asking price. This data strongly suggests that buyers are gaining a bit more leverage, and sellers are having to be more realistic. It's a market in transition, that's for sure.

So, with that statewide backdrop, let's zoom in on the projections.

5 Texas Areas Zillow Says Will See Prices Tumble in Double-Digits

Zillow, one of the big names in real estate data, regularly crunches numbers to predict where home values might be headed. Their latest forecast, using March 31, 2025, as a baseline, shines a spotlight on five specific Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas. These aren't the sprawling giants like Dallas or Houston, but smaller communities that might be more sensitive to economic ebbs and flows.

Here’s the breakdown of the projections for these areas:

RegionName RegionType StateName BaseDate Projected Change by 30-04-2025 Projected Change by 30-06-2025 Projected Change by 31-03-2026
Pecos, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -0.4% -2.8% -12.7%
Big Spring, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -0.5% -2.7% -11.4%
Alice, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.3% -3.8% -11.3%
Raymondville, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.2% -4.1% -11.2%
Sweetwater, TX msa TX 31-03-2025 -1.3% -3.5% -10.6%

As you can see, by early 2026 (specifically March 31, 2026), all five of these areas are forecast to experience price drops exceeding 10%. Pecos leads the pack with a potential 12.7% decline. This is significant, and if you live in, own property in, or are considering buying in these areas, this is information you'll want to consider carefully.

Why These Areas? A Closer Look at the Dynamics

It’s natural to ask: why these specific towns? From my experience watching housing trends, several factors often come into play, especially in smaller markets.

  • Pecos, TX (Projected Decline: -12.7%)
    • Location & Economy: Pecos is deep in West Texas, a region heavily influenced by the oil and gas industry. When oil prices are high, areas like Pecos can boom. Conversely, when the energy sector slows down or if there's a perception of future slowdowns, employment can dip, and housing demand can weaken significantly. This “boom-and-bust” cycle is something I've seen impact West Texas towns repeatedly. The significant projected decline here strongly suggests an anticipation of softening in the energy sector or a correction from a previous oil-fueled price surge.
    • My Take: A 12.7% drop is steep. It signals that the local economy, likely tied to oil and gas, might be facing headwinds. For anyone who bought at the peak of a recent boom, this could be a tough pill to swallow.
  • Big Spring, TX (Projected Decline: -11.4%)
    • Location & Economy: Like Pecos, Big Spring is in West Texas and has strong ties to the oil industry. It also serves as a regional hub for a broader agricultural area. The same vulnerabilities linked to energy price fluctuations apply here.
    • My Take: Similar to Pecos, the reliance on a dominant industry makes Big Spring susceptible. If local job growth tied to that industry falters, housing often follows. This forecast might also reflect a market that overshot during the pandemic-era buying frenzy and is now recalibrating.
  • Alice, TX (Projected Decline: -11.3%)
    • Location & Economy: Alice is located in South Texas, between Corpus Christi and Laredo. Its economy has historically been linked to the oil and gas industry, agriculture, and government jobs (including a significant border patrol presence in the wider region).
    • My Take: A double-digit decline here suggests a potential slowdown across a few of its economic drivers or perhaps an oversupply of housing relative to current demand. South Texas markets can sometimes be a bit more insulated than pure oil towns, but they aren't immune to broader economic shifts or changes in crucial local industries.
  • Raymondville, TX (Projected Decline: -11.2%)
    • Location & Economy: Raymondville is in the Rio Grande Valley in deep South Texas. Agriculture is a major economic pillar here, along with services and some light manufacturing. It's a smaller community, and its economic fortunes are often tied to the agricultural cycle and regional economic health.
    • My Take: For areas like Raymondville, which aren't major metropolitan centers, housing markets can be very sensitive to local employment. If agricultural outputs are down, or if there's less disposable income circulating, it can cool housing demand quickly. The projected decline here might also point to affordability challenges even at lower price points when coupled with higher interest rates.
  • Sweetwater, TX (Projected Decline: -10.6%)
    • Location & Economy: Sweetwater is in West Central Texas, known historically for gypsum plants and now increasingly for wind energy. It also has a history with cotton and cattle.
    • My Take: While the rise of wind energy is a positive long-term diversification, the housing market might be correcting from previous highs or feeling the pinch of broader economic slowing. Even with new industries, smaller towns can experience price volatility. It's possible that home construction or investor activity outpaced sustainable local demand in the recent past.

Understanding the “Why”: Factors Driving Potential Declines

Zillow uses complex algorithms, but from a boots-on-the-ground perspective, here are some common reasons why smaller MSAs like these might face steeper price corrections:

  • Economic Specialization: As we've seen, many of these towns have economies that lean heavily on one or two industries (especially oil and gas). This lack of diversification makes them more vulnerable. If that key industry sneezes, the local economy, and by extension the housing market, can catch a serious cold.
  • Population Fluctuations: Smaller towns can see more dramatic swings in population. If jobs related to a key industry dry up, workers may move away, reducing housing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • Supply and Demand Imbalances: Sometimes, a rush of new construction (perhaps during a boom period) can lead to an oversupply of homes if demand doesn't keep pace. In smaller markets, it doesn't take a huge number of excess homes to tip the scales.
  • Interest Rate Sensitivity: While higher interest rates impact all markets, they can hit affordability harder in areas where incomes might not be rising as quickly. If borrowing costs go up too much, potential buyers simply can't qualify, leading to less demand and falling prices.
  • The “Normalization” Effect: The last few years were anything but normal for real estate. Prices shot up almost everywhere. It's possible that these smaller markets experienced an unsustainable surge, and what we're seeing now is a correction back to more historically typical price levels or growth rates. I often tell clients that markets can't go up forever; gravity eventually plays a role.

What This Forecast Means for You

Whether you're a buyer, seller, or homeowner in these areas, this forecast is worth paying attention to.

For Potential Homebuyers:

  • Opportunity Knocks? A declining market can mean lower prices and potentially more negotiating power. You might find homes that were out of reach a year ago are now more affordable.
  • Patience Could Pay Off: If Zillow's timeline is accurate, prices might continue to soften through early 2026. Waiting could mean a better deal, but…
  • Catching a Falling Knife: Timing the absolute bottom of a market is nearly impossible. Buying in a declining market also means your home's value could dip further after you purchase. It's crucial to think long-term and buy for the right reasons (you love the home, the location works for you), not just speculation.
  • Due Diligence is Key: Scrutinize the local job market, understand why prices are falling, and get a thorough home inspection.

For Home Sellers:

  • Adjust Expectations: If you're planning to sell in these areas, you may need to be realistic about your asking price. The days of multiple over-asking offers are likely gone for now.
  • Price Competitively: Work with a local real estate agent who truly understands current market conditions. Overpricing your home in a declining market can mean it sits for a long time and ultimately sells for less.
  • Presentation Matters More Than Ever: With more competition from other sellers and potentially fewer buyers, making your home shine (clean, decluttered, good curb appeal) is critical.
  • Be Prepared for Longer Listing Times: Homes may take longer to sell than they did during the boom.

For Current Homeowners (Not Selling):

  • Paper Value vs. Real Life: Remember, a decline in your home's estimated value is only a “paper loss” unless you need to sell or refinance immediately. If you love your home and your mortgage is manageable, these fluctuations are part of long-term homeownership.
  • Focus on a Stable Foundation: The key is whether your personal financial situation is secure and your housing payment is comfortable. Market zigs and zags are less stressful when your own house is in order.

For Real Estate Investors:

  • Proceed with Caution: Investing in a declining market is risky. While lower acquisition prices are tempting, you need to be confident that the market will eventually recover and that rental demand (if you're buying to rent) will remain stable or grow.
  • Deep Local Knowledge Required: Generic investment strategies rarely work in highly localized, shifting markets. You'd need an almost unfair advantage in terms of local insight to make a successful bet here, in my opinion.

A Word on Forecasts and the Bigger Texas Picture

It's super important to remember that Zillow's numbers are forecasts, not guarantees. They are based on current data and trends, but things can change. Economic conditions can shift, local developments can alter a town's trajectory, and unforeseen events can always occur.

Also, and this is critical: these five MSAs do not represent the entire Texas housing market. Texas is a massive, diverse state. The dynamics in Pecos are vastly different from those in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, or San Antonio. While these major metro areas are also experiencing a slowdown and price moderation compared to the frenzy of 2021-2022, they generally have more diversified economies and different demand drivers. A double-digit decline in a major metro would be a much bigger story with far wider implications.

What I see in this data is a reflection of hyper-local market corrections. These smaller areas, often more tethered to specific industries or experiencing sharper boom-bust cycles, are adjusting more dramatically than the larger, more resilient economic hubs.

Factors I'll Be Watching Moving Forward

To see if these projections hold true, or if the situation changes, I'll be keeping an eye on several key indicators for these specific areas and for Texas generally:

  • Oil and Gas Prices/Activity: For Pecos and Big Spring especially, this is paramount.
  • Local Job Reports: Are these areas gaining or losing jobs? What sectors are growing or shrinking?
  • Inventory Levels: Is the number of homes for sale rising rapidly? This usually signals downward pressure on prices.
  • Days on Market: How long are homes taking to sell? If this number creeps up, buyers have more power.
  • Mortgage Interest Rates: National rate trends will continue to influence affordability everywhere.
  • Migration Patterns: Are people moving into or out of these specific Texas towns?

Final Thoughts: Stay Informed, Stay Local

The news is a significant piece of information, especially for those directly connected to Pecos, Big Spring, Alice, Raymondville, and Sweetwater. It underscores that not all real estate markets behave the same, even within a single state.

My advice? If these areas are on your radar, treat this forecast as a valuable data point. Dig deeper, talk to local real estate professionals who have on-the-ground experience, and consider your own financial situation and goals. The Texas real estate scene is always evolving, and staying informed is your best strategy for navigating its twists and turns.

Work With Norada in Texas's Shifting Market

As Texas enters a housing correction phase, savvy investors are capitalizing on price adjustments and increased inventory across key markets.

Norada offers a curated selection of turnkey rental properties in resilient Texas cities, providing consistent income and long-term appreciation potential.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

Read More:

  • Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?
  • Average Down Payment on a House in Texas in 2025
  • Texas Housing Market Predictions for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026
  • 10 Texas Cities Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Drop in 2025
  • This Texas Housing Market is the Best in the U.S. [2024 Rankings]
  • Texas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Predictions
  • Are Texas Home Sales Dropping ?
  • How Much Do Real Estate Agents Make in Texas?
  • 10 Cheapest Places to Live in Texas
  • Is Texas a Good Place to Live: Explore the Cost, Jobs and Lifestyle

Filed Under: Financing, Housing Market, Mortgage Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Correction, Real Estate Market, Texas

Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?

July 1, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Texas Housing Market Enters Correction Phase as Prices Drop Across the State

It wasn't that long ago that the Texas housing market felt unstoppable. Homes were selling in bidding wars, often in days, and prices seemed to climb forever. For anyone trying to buy, it was a frustrating, expensive time. But times change, and the latest data points suggest a significant shift is underway. Indeed, the Texas housing market enters a major correction phase as prices drop across the state, driven by a dramatic increase in the number of homes for sale.

I've been watching real estate markets for years, and what we're seeing in Texas right now is a clear signal that the wild boom times are over, at least for now. Let's dive into what the numbers are telling us and what it means if you're a buyer, a seller, or just curious about the Lone Star State's real estate future.

Will the Texas Housing Market Crash as Prices Drop Across the State?

The Unmistakable Sign: Skyrocketing Inventory

The first and perhaps most obvious sign of a changing market is the sheer number of homes sitting on the market. Think of it like this: when there are way more items on the store shelves than people wanting to buy them, the store eventually has to lower prices to move the goods. The same principle applies to housing.

According to data highlighted by real estate analyst Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, the number of active listings for sale across Texas has shot up dramatically. Looking at the historical data, the state's inventory levels were relatively stable before the pandemic madness.

  • In 2017, active listings were around 89,193.
  • They hovered in the 88,000s and 90,000s through 2018, 2019, and 2020.
  • The average during this pre-pandemic period was roughly 80,128 listings.
Is Texas Housing Crashing? Data Shows 53% Inventory Jump, Prices Falling
Source: Reventure App via X

Then came the pandemic boom. Fueled by low interest rates, remote work, and a rush of migration, demand exploded while supply tightened. Builders couldn't keep up, and homeowners with incredibly low mortgage rates weren't selling. This caused inventory to absolutely plummet to historic lows.

  • In 2021, listings dropped to a stunning low of around 35,997.
  • 2022 wasn't much better, staying incredibly tight at about 34,932.

These incredibly low numbers are a huge reason prices jumped so much. There just weren't enough houses for everyone who wanted one.

But the tide has turned. As interest rates climbed and the initial rush of pandemic buyers slowed, more homes started coming onto the market, and fewer buyers were able to jump in.

  • Inventory started climbing in 2023 to around 68,817.
  • It continued its ascent in 2024, hitting about 95,156.
  • And now, the data point that really catches my eye: in April 2025, active listings hit a whopping 123,237.

Let that sink in. 123,237 active listings. Compared to the roughly 80,128 average from 2017-2020, that's about a 53% increase in the number of homes available for sale. Compared to the pandemic lows of 2021-2022, it's literally more than triple the inventory.

From my perspective as someone who follows these markets, such a rapid and significant rise in inventory is a screaming signal. It tells me that the intense competition among buyers has faded. Sellers are finding their homes are sitting on the market longer, and they're facing much more competition from other homes for sale. This shifts the power dynamic firmly towards buyers.

Prices Are Following Suit: It's Not Just Inventory

High inventory is important because it's a leading indicator, but the real impact people feel is on prices. And Nick Gerli's analysis confirms what we'd expect: prices are now dropping across the state.

This isn't just a prediction based on inventory; it's a report on what's actually happening. We're seeing more price cuts, longer days on market before a home sells (if it sells), and ultimately, sale prices coming down from their peaks.

Why is this happening now? It's a mix of factors all coming together:

  1. The Inventory Surge: As discussed, more choices mean buyers don't have to overpay or waive contingencies like they did before.
  2. Higher Interest Rates: This is a massive factor. Even if a house price is slightly lower, the monthly payment on a mortgage is significantly higher now than it was a couple of years ago because interest rates have risen. This directly impacts how much house people can afford, reducing the pool of eligible buyers.
  3. Slowing Migration: The influx of new residents, particularly from more expensive states like California, was a major driver of demand and price growth in Texas during the boom. Nick Gerli notes that domestic migration into Texas slowed significantly in 2024, down 62%. While Texas is still growing, the pace of migration that fueled the recent frantic buying has cooled considerably. Fewer people arriving with potentially higher budgets means less competition for local buyers.

When you combine a flood of supply with cooling demand (due to affordability issues and slower migration), the result is predictable: prices have to come down to find the market clearing level.

How Much Could Prices Drop in Texas? Looking Ahead

This is the question on everyone's mind: just how far could this correction go? Predicting the exact bottom is impossible, but the data gives us some strong hints and potential scenarios.

One way to look at it is comparing current prices to long-term historical norms relative to incomes or rents. Nick Gerli's analysis suggests that Texas home values are still about 17.7% overvalued today compared to that historical relationship. This means, even with some recent small drops, prices haven't yet fully adjusted back to where they “should” be based on underlying economic fundamentals over the long run. He notes this overvaluation has improved a bit recently (meaning prices got even more overvalued at the peak), but it's still significant.

Based on current supply/demand conditions like the skyrocketing inventory, increased price cuts, and longer days on market, Reventure's short-term forecast (over the next 12 months) is for home prices in Texas to drop by -4.0% statewide. This seems like a reasonable near-term prediction given the clear shift in market dynamics we're witnessing.

However, Nick Gerli also talks about the potential for a larger correction, perhaps in the range of 15-20%. This more significant drop is a possibility, especially if certain economic conditions worsen. A key risk factor he points out is the oil industry. Texas's economy, while diverse, still has significant ties to energy. He mentions oil prices around $57/barrel as being problematic, potentially causing local operators to shut down production. A recession in the oil sector could lead to job losses and reduced economic activity in parts of Texas, further weakening housing demand and potentially accelerating price declines.

My own thoughts align with this analysis. Markets rarely correct in a perfectly smooth line. The 4% drop over the next year might be the initial phase, especially if economic conditions remain stable. But if there's an external shock, like a downturn in a key industry or a broader recession, the correction could easily deepen into that 15-20% range. The underlying overvaluation suggests there's still room for prices to fall before they hit historical norms.

The Silver Lining: A Step Towards Affordability

While headlines about price drops can sound alarming, it's important to remember why this correction is happening. The previous run-up in prices made Texas, a state long known for its relative affordability, increasingly out of reach for many of its residents. This was particularly true for first-time buyers or those earning local wages who weren't benefiting from the high salaries of coastal transplants.

Prices declining is actually a necessary step towards restoring some balance and improving affordability. As prices come down, more local Texans will be able to consider buying a home again. This can bring buyers back into the market, which in turn helps stabilize things eventually.

Even after a potential 4% drop, Nick Gerli's analysis suggests the market might still be about 10-12% overvalued. This indicates that the path to full affordability, based on historical metrics, might require further price adjustments down the line.

Understanding Reventure's Forecast Score

Reventure App uses a forecast score (0 to 100) to predict 12-month price movements based on supply and demand fundamentals. Texas currently has a score of 37/100. Scores closer to 0 indicate a market where prices are expected to decline, while scores closer to 100 suggest prices are likely to rise. A score of 37 is on the lower end, reinforcing the expectation of falling prices in the near future compared to other markets in the U.S. It signals weak fundamentals for price appreciation right now.

My Take on What This Means

Based on the data, the trends, and my understanding of how markets work, here's my personal view:

  • For Sellers: The party is over. Listing your home now means entering a market with much more competition. You'll likely need to price competitively, be prepared for negotiation, and accept that your home might take longer to sell than it would have a year or two ago. Overpricing is the quickest way to have your listing sit and eventually require larger price cuts.
  • For Buyers: This is potentially good news. You have more options, less pressure to make rushed decisions, and more leverage to negotiate on price and terms. However, higher interest rates still make the monthly cost of buying high, even if the price comes down. Don't just look at the list price; look at the full monthly payment with the current rates. Do your homework on local market conditions – while the state average is dropping, some specific neighborhoods might hold up better than others initially.
  • For Texas: A housing market correction, while painful for those who bought at the peak, is ultimately healthy if it improves affordability. Making it easier for residents who work in the state to afford homes is crucial for long-term economic stability and quality of life.

The dramatic increase in inventory, coupled with clear signs of prices dropping and underlying overvaluation, strongly indicates that the Texas housing market is undergoing a significant correction. It's a necessary adjustment after a period of unsustainable growth. While the exact magnitude and duration of the downturn remain to be seen and could be influenced by broader economic factors like the energy sector, the direction is clear: the Texas housing market is cooling down, and prices are finding a new level.

Work With Norada in Texas's Shifting Market

As Texas enters a housing correction phase, savvy investors are capitalizing on price adjustments and increased inventory across key markets.

Norada offers a curated selection of turnkey rental properties in resilient Texas cities, providing consistent income and long-term appreciation potential.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

Read More:

  • Average Down Payment on a House in Texas in 2025
  • Texas Housing Market Predictions for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026
  • 10 Texas Cities Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Drop in 2025
  • This Texas Housing Market is the Best in the U.S. [2024 Rankings]
  • Texas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Predictions
  • Are Texas Home Sales Dropping ?
  • How Much Do Real Estate Agents Make in Texas?
  • 10 Cheapest Places to Live in Texas
  • Is Texas a Good Place to Live: Explore the Cost, Jobs and Lifestyle

Filed Under: Financing, Housing Market, Mortgage Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Correction, Real Estate Market, Texas

Worst Places to Live in Texas in 2025: Skip These Towns

May 23, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Worst Places to Live in Texas

Texas, with its sprawling landscapes and vibrant cities, beckons those seeking a dynamic place to call home. However, within this vast state, some communities face hurdles that can impact the daily lives of residents. Below are some of the worst places to live in Texas. It's crucial to remember that these challenges don't paint the entire picture of Texas.

The state boasts a strong sense of community and resilience, actively working to overcome these obstacles. We'll explore economic hardships, social issues, and the inspiring efforts underway to revitalize these communities, providing a balanced perspective on these Texas locations.

Certain communities grapple with economic challenges, but efforts are underway to address and overcome them. High unemployment and poverty rates in certain regions highlight the need for collective efforts to improve economic opportunities. Also, some of the apparently worst towns in Texas have been talked about in the video shown below.

Worst Places to Live in Texas in 2025

Hutchins

This small town near Dallas has a high poverty rate of 35%, a high unemployment rate of 8.3%, and a high crime rate of 60% above the national average. The education and housing quality are also low, making it a poor choice for living.

Robstown

The small agricultural hub of Robstown near the Corpus Christi area offers very little outside of crop harvesting jobs. Nearly 40% of the population lives below the poverty line with limited access to resources for advancement. Public schools are underfunded with extremely poor testing results. The violent crime rate is also about three times higher than average.

This town claims to be the birthplace of Texas hold 'em poker, but it also has a lot of problems. It has a high poverty rate of 32%, a high unemployment rate of 11.8%, and a low median home value of $76,300. It also ranks low on education, health, and environment.

With a crime rate of 31 per one thousand residents, Robstown has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes – from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One's chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 32. Within Texas, more than 92% of the communities have a lower crime rate than Robstown.

Livingston

This town located near Lake Livingston has a high crime rate of 90% above the national average. It has a low median income of $33,000, a low median home value of $88,900, and a low graduation rate of 77%. It also has poor health and environmental indicators.

San Benito

Near the Mexico border and the Rio Grande Valley, San Benito suffers from high poverty levels reaching 30% of households, below-average incomes, under-resourced schools, as well as crime rates that are more than double state rates. The cost of living is relatively affordable here, but economic opportunities and quality of life measures lag behind most of Texas.

The crime rate in San Benito is considerably higher than the national average across all communities in America from the largest to the smallest. According to Neighborhoodscout, based on FBI crime data, San Benito is not one of the safest communities in America. Relative to Texas, San Benito has a crime rate that is higher than 84% of the state's cities and towns of all sizes.

Balch Springs

A suburb 15 miles east of Dallas, Balch Springs tops our list as the current worst place to live in Texas. Violent crimes are 225% higher than average here while poverty and unemployment are both widespread. City infrastructure is outdated and failing while recreational opportunities are very minimal for families. The school district is also considered one of the most deficient.

This suburb of Dallas has a high crime rate of 70% above the national average, a high poverty rate of 25%, and a low median home value of $97,200. It also has low ratings on education, health, and the environment.

Port Arthur

On the Sabine Lake between Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico sits Port Arthur, an area ravaged by crime, poverty, crumbling infrastructure, and the lasting impacts of repeated hurricanes and tropical storms. Nearly 1 in 3 residents live below the poverty line as the city suffers from a declining population and tax base.

This city on the Gulf Coast has a high poverty rate of 28%, a high unemployment rate of 10.4%, and a low median home value of $64,600. It also has poor health and environmental conditions, especially after being hit by several hurricanes.

Cleveland

This town, not related to the one in Ohio, has a high poverty rate. In 2022, the median household income of Cleveland households was $46,875. However, 10.0% of Cleveland families live in poverty. The crime rate in Cleveland, TX is also significantly higher than the national average. Violent crime in Cleveland is 47.1, nearly double the US average of 22.7.

These dual challenges of poverty and elevated crime rates necessitate a multifaceted approach to enhance the overall quality of life for Cleveland residents.

Donna

The city of Donna, TX faces significant socioeconomic challenges, as evidenced by its 2022 median household income of $34,049. While Donna households marginally surpass those in Clarksville ($33,935) and Redland ($33,689), a troubling 33.3% of Donna families grapple with the harsh realities of poverty (source: 

Compounding the community's difficulties is a considerably higher crime rate compared to the national average. The violent crime rate in Donna is a staggering 54.1, almost double the U.S. average of 22.7. This alarming statistic underscores the pressing need for targeted strategies to address and mitigate crime within the town.

The intersection of income disparities and elevated crime rates in Donna necessitates a concerted effort, including community-focused initiatives, to uplift residents and create a safer, more prosperous environment.

Killeen

The city of Killeen has one of the highest violent crime rates in the nation even though it has given birth to stars like Ne-Yo and Clayton Kershaw. 15.7% of the population in Killeen, TX, determined by poverty status, grapples with economic challenges, amounting to 23,500 individuals out of a total of 149,000 people. This figure surpasses the national average of 12.6%, indicating a higher prevalence of poverty within the community.

The town of Killeen also contends with a considerably higher crime rate than the national average. Gang violence and drug trafficking are issues that blanket the community in fear and limit economic mobility for many residents. Public school performance is also bleak here. While standing at 23 crimes per one thousand residents, Killeen doesn't rank among the communities with the very highest crime rates. However, the probability of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime in Killeen is a concerning 1 in 43.

Analysis of FBI crime data reinforces the fact that Killeen is not among the safest communities in America. In comparison to Texas, Killeen's crime rate surpasses that of 83% of the state's cities and towns, irrespective of their size. This underscores the need for targeted efforts to address both poverty and crime challenges within the community.

Freeport

Freeport occupies an ideal coastal location on the Gulf of Mexico south of Houston, but high rates of poverty, crime, and weak city services make it one of the least desirable areas to plant roots in Texas. The cost of living is low, but so is the quality of life by most measures. This city on the Brazos River has a high poverty rate of 20.9%, a high unemployment rate of 9.7%, and a low median home value of $79,900.

Neighborhoodscout paints a grim picture of safety in Freeport, revealing a crime rate significantly surpassing the national average across all American communities, regardless of size. The odds of falling victim to either violent or property crime stand at a concerning 1 in 37.

Delving into FBI crime data further reinforces the troubling narrative surrounding Freeport. Contrary to expectations, this community does not rank among the safest in America. When considering the Lone Star State, Freeport's crime rate emerges as a cause for alarm. It surpasses that of 88% of Texas' cities and towns, irrespective of their size. This places Freeport among the less secure locales within the state.

Sinton

This city in San Patricio County has a high poverty rate. Around 26.9% of Sinton families live in poverty. In 2022, the median household income of Sinton households was $46,411. The violent crime rate in Sinton is a staggering 40.3, nearly double the U.S. average of 22.7. This stark contrast underscores the heightened risk of violent incidents faced by individuals in this community.

Property crime, too, exhibits worrisome figures in Sinton. With a rate of 45.8, it surpasses the U.S. average of 35.4 by almost 30 percent. Residents grapple with an increased likelihood of property-related incidents compared to the national norm. The data underscores the imperative of heightened awareness and proactive measures to enhance safety and security in the community.

Jacksonville

This city in Cherokee County has a high poverty rate. 22.2% of the population for whom poverty status is determined in Jacksonville, TX (2.96k out of 13.4k people) live below the poverty line, a number that is higher than the national average of 12.6%.

Jacksonville, unfortunately, grapples with a crime rate that significantly surpasses the national average, spanning communities of all sizes across America. While it stands at 22 crimes per one thousand residents, it doesn't claim the dubious distinction of being among the very highest crime rate communities.

The probability of falling victim to either violent or property crime in Jacksonville is a concerning 1 in 45. This statistic highlights the elevated risk residents face in their daily lives.

Examining the FBI crime data emphasizes that Jacksonville doesn't rank among the safest communities in America. This revelation prompts a closer look at safety measures within the city.

Relatively speaking, Jacksonville's crime rate surpasses that of 81% of Texas' cities and towns, irrespective of their size. This positioning indicates a need for concerted efforts to enhance security within the community. These socioeconomic challenges call for a comprehensive approach to address the root causes and improve the overall well-being of Jacksonville residents.

Dilley

Located about an hour southwest of San Antonio, Dilley has struggled economically for years. The small town of around 4,000 residents has limited job opportunities outside of agriculture, an underfunded school system, as well as elevated rates of poverty and crime compared to state averages. Housing options are sparse and aging as well.

Orange

Situated east of Houston near Louisiana, Orange has stagnated economically with the decline of the shipbuilding and fishing industries that once drove the local economy. Today roughly one-third of residents live in poverty as crime, drugs, and gang activity run rampant. Public infrastructure is crumbling in many neighborhoods as well.

Snyder

In West Texas north of the Permian Basin, Snyder has become one of the poorest places in the state with unemployment triple the national average. City services like public transportation and recreation opportunities are extremely limited for the town’s size. Violent crime has also been on the rise in recent years.

Raymondville

The small town of Raymondville has the unfortunate distinction of being the poorest city in the entire state of Texas by a number of metrics. Located 40 miles north of the Mexico border, nearly half the population lives below the poverty line with limited access to steady employment, healthcare, or other critical services. Drug trafficking is also a major problem.

While many parts of Texas continue booming, these places represent some of the least opportune places to put down roots based on factors like crime, poverty, employment, infrastructure health, educational opportunities, and general quality of life.

They each face their mix of complex socioeconomic challenges in providing residents with basic needs and access to advancement. However, strategic investments and partnerships focused on economic development, infrastructure, policing, and education are ongoing and in the coming years would help set some of these areas on an improved track.

ALSO READ:

10 Reasons Why Texas is the Future of America


References:

  • https://datausa.io/
  • https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/
  • https://www.roadsnacks.net/worst-places-to-live-in-texas/
  • https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Texas, Worst Places to Live in Texas

Average Down Payment on a House in Texas in 2025

March 17, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Average Down Payment on a House in Texas in 2024

Buying a home is one of the most significant financial decisions many people will make in their lives. One critical aspect of this decision is the down payment, which serves as a percentage of the home's purchase price paid upfront. This blog post delves into the average down payment on a house in Texas, exploring various factors that influence this amount, the importance of down payment assistance programs, and tips for saving for a down payment.

Current Average Down Payment on a House in Texas

As of 2025, the average down payment on a house in Texas varies considerably depending on several factors, including location, type of mortgage, and market conditions. On average, Texas homebuyers are putting down 19% of the home’s purchase price, aligning closely with the national average of 18.5% according to the National Association of Realtors. However, this percentage can fluctuate significantly from city to city.

Breakdown by City

City Average Home Price (Est.) Average Down Payment (%) Average Down Payment Amount
Houston $367,000 19% $69,930
Dallas $400,000 20% $80,000
Austin $600,000 18% $108,000
San Antonio $350,000 17% $59,500

As shown in the table above, the down payment can vary widely. For example, buying a home in Austin, with its higher average home price, typically requires a larger down payment compared to cities like San Antonio or Houston.

Factors Influencing Down Payment Amounts

Several key factors influence the average down payment on a house in Texas:

Type of Loan

Different loan programs come with varying down payment requirements. For example:

  • Conventional Loans: Typically require a 20% down payment to avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI).
  • FHA Loans: Allow for a minimum down payment of as low as 3.5%, making them attractive for first-time buyers.
  • VA Loans: Available to veterans, often require no down payment, which can make homeownership more accessible.

Cost of the Home

Home prices in Texas have been on the rise, especially in urban areas. Higher home values often lead to larger down payments. Home prices in Texas increased by approximately 15% in the past year alone, significantly impacting average down payments.

Buyers’ Personal Financial Situations

Buyers’ financial health plays a crucial role in determining their down payment:

  • Credit Scores: Higher credit scores may offer better mortgage terms, allowing buyers to afford a higher down payment.
  • Debt-to-Income Ratios: Lenders assess this ratio to judge a borrower's ability to repay a loan, influencing requirements for down payment amounts.
  • Savings: The amount of savings available also impacts how much a buyer can afford to put down.

Local Real Estate Market Trends

Texas is known for its dynamic housing market. In areas with increasing demand, down payments may trend higher as buyers compete for homes. Understanding these local trends can help buyers strategize their homebuying process effectively.

Typical Down Payment Percentages

While the traditional down payment percentage is 20%, recent trends indicate a shift. Here are some common down payment percentages:

  • 20%: Ideal for avoiding PMI and securing favorable mortgage rates.
  • 10%: A common choice for many buyers looking for a balance between upfront costs and monthly payments.
  • 5%: More manageable for first-time buyers, allowing them to enter the market sooner.

Impact of Down Payment Percentages on Mortgage Rates

A larger down payment can lower monthly payments and interest rates:

  • 20% Down Payment: Generally results in the best mortgage rates and no PMI.
  • 5% to 10% Down Payment: May lead to higher rates and PMI, impacting long-term costs.

The Importance of Down Payment Assistance Programs

Down payment assistance programs can significantly reduce the barrier for buyers in Texas. Various state and local programs offer financial aid, making homeownership more attainable.

Overview of Assistance Programs

  • Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs (TDHCA): Offers down payment assistance through grants and loans for eligible low- to moderate-income buyers.
  • Local Programs: Cities like Houston and Dallas have their assistance programs, often tailored to first-time homebuyers.

Eligibility Criteria

These programs commonly have specific criteria, including income limits and property location. First-time buyers often receive favorable terms, helping them manage the financial burden of homeownership.

Pros and Cons of Different Down Payment Amounts

Choosing the right down payment involves balancing immediate financial capacity with long-term financial goals.

Higher Down Payments

Pros:

  • Lower Monthly Payments: A significant down payment reduces the principal and, consequently, the monthly mortgage payment.
  • Reduced Interest Rates: Lenders often view higher down payments as lower risk, which can lead to better rates.
  • Avoidance of PMI: Paying at least 20% eliminates the additional cost of PMI, such as the private mortgage insurance required by many lenders.

Cons:

  • Less Cash for Other Expenses: Committing a large sum to a down payment can limit funds available for home repairs, renovations, and emergencies.
  • Potential Investment Loss: The capital used for a larger down payment might yield more returns if invested elsewhere.

Lower Down Payments

Pros:

  • More Cash on Hand: Lower down payments keep more money available for other uses, such as renovations or personal savings.
  • Easier Entry into Homeownership: Programs allowing smaller down payments can help first-time buyers purchase homes sooner.

Cons:

  • Higher Monthly Payments: A smaller down payment increases the size of the mortgage, leading to higher monthly payments.
  • Possibility of PMI: Buyers with lower down payments often have to pay PMI, which can add hundreds of dollars to monthly costs.

Tips for Saving for a Down Payment in Texas

Saving for a down payment doesn't have to be an insurmountable task. Here are several strategies to consider:

  1. Create a Budget: Establish a savings plan outlining monthly contributions toward the down payment goal. Utilize budgeting apps to track expenses.
  2. Utilize High-Yield Savings Accounts: Consider putting your savings into a high-yield savings account to earn more interest versus traditional accounts.
  3. Employ Employer Benefits: Some employers offer homebuyer assistance in the form of grants or matched savings accounts.
  4. Set Up Automatic Transfers: Automate savings by setting up monthly transfers to your down payment fund.
  5. Cut Unnecessary Expenses: Identify areas to cut back on discretionary spending and redirect that money into savings.

FAQs About Down Payments on a House in Texas

Q: What is the minimum down payment I need for a house in Texas?
A: Depending on the loan type, the minimum down payment can vary. For conventional loans, it's typically 20%, while FHA loans can be 3.5%.

Q: How can I calculate my down payment?
A: To calculate your down payment, take the home purchase price and multiply it by your desired down payment percentage. For instance, for a $300,000 home with a 10% down payment: $300,000 x 0.10 = $30,000.

Q: Are there any programs that help with down payments in Texas?
A: Yes, various state and local programs offer financial assistance for down payments, particularly for first-time homebuyers.

Q: What areas in Texas require larger down payments?
A: Urban areas, particularly Austin and Dallas, often require larger down payments due to higher average home prices.

Q: How does my credit score affect my down payment?
A: A higher credit score can lead to better mortgage terms, which may lower the required down payment and help secure lower interest rates.

In conclusion, the average down payment on a house in Texas is influenced by various factors, including loan types, personal finances, and local market conditions. Understanding these nuances is essential for potential homebuyers navigating the Texas housing market. Whether you’re considering a larger down payment for lower monthly payments or looking for assistance programs to ease the burden, careful planning and awareness can significantly impact your homebuying journey.

Read More:

  • This Texas Housing Market is the Best in the U.S. [2024 Rankings]
  • Texas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Predictions
  • Are Texas Home Sales Dropping ?
  • How Much Do Real Estate Agents Make in Texas?
  • 10 Cheapest Places to Live in Texas
  • Is Texas a Good Place to Live: Explore the Cost, Jobs and Lifestyle

Filed Under: Financing, Housing Market, Mortgage Tagged With: Down Payment, Housing Market, mortgage, Real Estate Market, Texas

10 Texas Cities Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Drop in 2025

February 6, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

10 Texas Cities Where Home Prices Are Expected to Fall (2024)

Have you been dreaming of owning a home in the Lone Star State? Texas has long been a popular destination, attracting people from across the country with its robust economy, thriving job market, and fantastic weather. But, like many other parts of the country, the Texas housing market is also experiencing shifts, and 10 Texas cities where home prices are expected to fall in 2025 are emerging as a potential opportunity for buyers.

While some areas are experiencing continued growth, the predictions suggest a slight downturn in specific cities by the end of 2025, creating a potentially advantageous environment for those looking to buy. Let's delve into these cities and explore the factors that might lead to these predicted price declines.

10 Texas Cities Where Home Prices Are Expected to Fall in 2025

Before we jump into the data, let's address why this information is crucial. Real estate is hyper-local. What's happening in Austin is vastly different than what's happening in a smaller town in West Texas. Understanding these micro-trends can save you thousands of dollars, whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to gauge the health of your local economy. Think of this article as your early warning system, helping you make informed decisions in a complex market.

The Data: Forecasts Explained

So, where does this prediction come from? Zillow regularly publishes forecasts that estimate future home values across the country. Zillow's data gives us a peek into the potential direction of the housing market. It's important to remember that these are forecasts, not guarantees. Many things could change between now and 2025, affecting these projections. However, they offer valuable insight that shouldn’t be ignored.

The data used for this article comes from Zillow's MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) Forecast for January 2025, and the forecast until December 2025, compared against a baseline of December 31, 2024.

Top 10 Texas Areas Anticipating Home Price Declines in 2025

Here's a breakdown of the 10 Texas cities where Zillow predicts the most significant potential home price drops by December 2025:

City Projected Home Price Change (Dec 2024 – Dec 2025)
Big Spring, TX -9.1%
Pecos, TX -8.9%
Sweetwater, TX -7.6%
Raymondville, TX -6.8%
Alice, TX -6.0%
Zapata, TX -5.3%
Lamesa, TX -5.0%
Beeville, TX -3.7%
Vernon, TX -3.5%
Rio Grande City, TX -2.9%

Diving Deeper: What's Driving These Projections?

Now, let's consider what might be driving these projected declines. It's rarely a single factor, but a combination of economic and demographic forces:

  • Oil and Gas Industry Fluctuations: Several of these cities (Big Spring, Pecos, Sweetwater, Lamesa) are heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry. Fluctuations in oil prices can have a significant impact on local economies and, subsequently, housing markets. When the oil industry struggles, jobs are lost, and people move away, leading to a decrease in demand for housing.
  • Population Shifts: Some smaller towns in Texas are experiencing population decline as people move to larger cities for better job opportunities and amenities. This can lead to an oversupply of housing, putting downward pressure on prices.
  • Limited Job Diversity: A lack of diverse employment opportunities can make a city more vulnerable to economic downturns. If a city's economy is primarily based on one or two industries, a decline in those industries can have a ripple effect throughout the entire community, including the housing market.
  • Interest Rates: This has a major effect, and if these forecasts turn out to be inaccurate, I would bet that it's because they failed to properly estimate interest rates.

A Closer Look at a Few Key Cities

  • Big Spring, TX: With the most significant projected drop, Big Spring's fortunes are closely tied to the Permian Basin oil boom. While oil prices have recovered somewhat, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, impacting investor confidence and home values.
  • Pecos, TX: Similar to Big Spring, Pecos is also heavily dependent on the oil and gas industry. The decline in drilling activity and related services could contribute to a decrease in housing demand.
  • Sweetwater, TX: Sweetwater's economy is somewhat diversified with wind energy, but the oil industry still plays a vital role. The projected decline suggests that the benefits of wind energy may not be enough to offset the challenges in the oil sector.

What Does This Mean for Homeowners?

If you own a home in one of these cities, the projected price declines might be concerning. Here's what you should consider:

  • Don't Panic: These are just forecasts, and the actual outcome could be different.
  • Assess Your Situation: Are you planning to sell soon? If so, you might want to consider listing your home sooner rather than later to capitalize on current prices.
  • Improve Your Home's Appeal: Make necessary repairs and upgrades to make your home more attractive to potential buyers. Focus on improvements that offer a good return on investment.
  • Consider Renting: If you're not in a hurry to sell, you could consider renting out your property until the market improves.
  • Consult a Real Estate Professional: A local real estate agent can provide you with valuable insights into the current market conditions and help you develop a strategy that's right for you.

Opportunities for Buyers?

For potential buyers, these projected price declines could present opportunities:

  • Lower Prices: Obviously, if prices do drop, you'll be able to purchase a home for less than you would today.
  • Increased Negotiating Power: As the market cools, buyers gain more negotiating power. You might be able to negotiate a lower price, get the seller to pay for closing costs, or request repairs.
  • Investment Potential: If you believe in the long-term potential of these cities, you could view this as an opportunity to invest in real estate at a lower price point. However, be aware of the risks.

Important Considerations: The Limitations of Forecasts

It's crucial to remember that these forecasts are based on current data and assumptions. Unforeseen events, such as a major economic recession, changes in interest rates, or unexpected population shifts, could significantly alter the trajectory of the housing market. As someone who's followed real estate for years, I've learned one thing: predicting the future with certainty is impossible.

Moreover, Zillow's forecasts are based on MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas), which can encompass a larger geographic area than just the city itself. Therefore, the actual price changes within a specific neighborhood might vary.

Beyond the Numbers: The Human Element

Real estate is more than just numbers and statistics. It's about people, families, and communities. These potential price declines can have a real impact on people's lives, especially those who are already struggling financially. It's important to approach this information with empathy and understanding.

Final Thoughts: Staying Informed and Making Smart Decisions

The Texas housing market is constantly evolving. Staying informed about the latest trends and forecasts is essential for making smart decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or simply interested in the health of your local economy. Use this information as a starting point for your own research, and always consult with qualified professionals before making any major real estate decisions.

Work with Norada in 2025, Your Trusted Source for

Real Estate Investing in “Texas”

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

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Get Started Now 

Recommended Read:

  • Is Texas the Next Big Thing? 10 Reasons Texas is the Future
  • Will the Texas Housing Market Crash in 2025?
  • Texas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Predictions 2025
  • 10 Cheapest Places to Live in Texas
  • Texas Housing Market Cools Down: Boon for First-Time Buyers?
  • Worst Places to Live in Texas in 2025: Avoid These Texas Towns

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Texas

Texas Housing Market Predictions for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

February 6, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Texas Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

Will Texas home prices drop in the next 2 years? The Texas housing market is expected to experience a moderate slowdown over the next two years, with some regions experiencing price declines while others show growth. The overall forecast indicates a transition from the strong growth seen in recent years towards a more balanced market.

I've been closely following the Texas housing scene for quite some time, and I'll share my insights and analysis of the projected market conditions for the next two years, based on data from reliable sources.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

Current Market Trends:

The Texas housing market currently presents a mixed picture. While the third quarter ended on a positive note with an increase in home sales, other indicators are showing a bit of a slow-down after the superheated market of the past few years.

  • Home Sales are Ticking Up: Statewide home sales saw a solid increase of 4.8% month-over-month in September, after a brief dip in August. This suggests a potentially strong October, but the momentum has to be seen to be believed. Houston showed the strongest growth among the major metropolitan areas (which we call the Big Four – Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio), with an impressive 11.6% jump.
  • New Listings Slowed Down: The rate of new homes coming onto the market slowed down after a strong start to the year. This is quite normal for the fall and winter months in Texas. While San Antonio and Austin saw a small increase in new listings, Houston and Dallas experienced a 4% decrease each. It shows that the market might be shifting away from the crazy seller's market.
  • Inventory is Gradually Rising: The number of active listings ticked up, with a 2.3% increase statewide. This is good news for buyers as it means a bit more selection and possibly a bit of a relief from the intense competition that has been there.
  • Pending Sales Still Strong: Pending sales increased by 6.9%, signaling continued buyer interest and suggesting sales may remain strong in the coming months. Houston saw a particularly strong surge in pending listings with a 15.8% increase.
  • Interest Rates Showed Some Relief: Interest rates have been on a downward trend for a while now. In September, both Treasury and mortgage rates saw a decrease, which could be a boost for the housing market. As interest rates fall, buyers can afford more, and there is some expectation that they can stay at this level for a few months. I do not expect rates to fall sharply in the next year. The Federal Reserve has reduced rates over the last few months. This reduction in rates is likely to result in more people looking to refinance their mortgages and buy new homes.

Single-Family Housing Market Indicators

The new-home construction side of the market is showing some signs of cooling after a very hot period early this year.

  • Building Permits Dipped: Statewide building permits fell slightly in September. Except for San Antonio, the Big Four saw decreases in permits.
  • Construction Starts Slowed Down: After some strong monthly increases, single-family construction starts decreased. Dallas experienced the biggest drop, followed by Houston and Austin. San Antonio was an exception, with a small increase.
  • Total Value of Home Starts Increased: Despite the drop in the number of starts, the total value of single-family housing starts increased. This is probably due to the increasing cost of construction, and not an increase in the volume of homes being built.

Home Prices: A Slight Uptick

Home prices edged up slightly in September.

  • Texas Median Home Prices rose by 0.9% month-over-month. San Antonio and Houston saw a solid increase, while Austin and Dallas saw minor declines or no change.
  • Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index: This index, which is a better indicator of price changes, showed a 0.4% decrease month-over-month but an increase of 1.7% year-over-year. It tells us that, while prices are flat right now, over the past 12 months they have still been rising in Texas.

Texas Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

I believe that the Texas housing market will see a more balanced, and somewhat slower growth trajectory over the next couple of years. Here are my thoughts and predictions based on the current trends and data:

  • A Gradual Shift Toward a More Balanced Market: After a very strong seller's market, we are moving towards a more balanced market with less competition. This means it will be a more stable time to buy and sell a home.
  • Home Price Growth to Moderate: I expect home price growth to slow down considerably compared to recent years. Some areas will likely see small increases, while others may experience minor price declines. I don't think that Texas is on the verge of a crash.
  • Interest Rates to Remain Relatively Low: I think that rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, but not fall dramatically. This can lead to more people refinancing their homes and buying new homes.
  • Inventory Levels to Increase Gradually: Inventory levels are expected to continue rising, but not dramatically. As we get closer to the end of the year, we'll likely see more homes come onto the market as sellers get motivated to move in the spring or summer.
  • Buyer Competition to Ease: With more options for buyers and some moderation in price increases, the intense competition we have seen in recent years will ease up. It will still be a competitive market, but it will be more manageable.
  • New Construction to Slow Down Slightly: The new construction market is likely to cool down a bit. However, with the increasing population of Texas, it is likely that it will not decline too much.

Texas Home Price Market Forecast: MSA-Specific Projections

Now let's zoom in on some specific areas within Texas and look at what Zillow's forecast for home price changes looks like for the next few months:

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Forecast for Nov. 30, 2024 Forecast for Jan. 31, 2025 Forecast for Oct. 31, 2025
Jacksonville, TX 0.3% 0.7% 4.6%
Stephenville, TX 0.3% 0.8% 4.6%
McAllen, TX 0.1% 0.5% 4.4%
Brownsville, TX -0.2% -0.2% 3.6%
Corsicana, TX -0.1% 0.5% 3.6%
El Paso, TX 0% 0% 3.5%
Wichita Falls, TX 0.3% 0.7% 3.5%
Hereford, TX 0.4% 0.8% 3.5%
Palestine, TX 0% 0.5% 3.1%
Tyler, TX 0.1% 0.3% 3%
Waco, TX -0.3% -0.5% 2.4%
Mineral Wells, TX -0.2% -0.2% 2.2%
Sherman, TX -0.3% -0.4% 2.1%
Gainesville, TX 0.2% 0.3% 2.1%
Killeen, TX -0.4% -0.9% 1.7%
Amarillo, TX -0.1% -0.2% 1.6%
San Angelo, TX 0.3% 0.5% 1.3%
Del Rio, TX 0.1% 0.3% 1.3%
Dallas, TX -0.2% -0.7% 1.2%
Athens, TX -0.4% -0.9% 1.2%
Mount Pleasant, TX -0.5% -0.7% 1.2%
Kerrville, TX -0.1% -0.4% 1%
Paris, TX -0.2% -0.7% 1%
Nacogdoches, TX 0.1% 0.2% 0.9%
Brownwood, TX -0.2% -0.3% 0.9%
Fredericksburg, TX 0% -0.9% 0.9%
Abilene, TX -0.2% -0.1% 0.8%
Eagle Pass, TX 0.1% -0.2% 0.7%
Houston, TX -0.2% -0.6% 0.6%
College Station, TX -0.1% -0.4% 0.4%
San Antonio, TX -0.3% -0.7% 0.2%
Brenham, TX -0.4% -0.8% 0.2%
Lubbock, TX -0.4% -1% 0.1%
Longview, TX -0.1% -0.2% 0.1%
Lufkin, TX -0.6% -0.7% 0.1%
Victoria, TX -0.1% -0.4% 0%
Austin, TX -0.4% -1.8% -0.4%
Huntsville, TX -0.4% -0.9% -0.4%
Sulphur Springs, TX -1% -1.4% -0.5%
Port Lavaca, TX 0.1% -0.4% -0.5%
Bay City, TX 0.1% -0.3% -0.8%
Texarkana, TX -0.4% -0.8% -0.9%
Laredo, TX 0% -0.5% -1%
Corpus Christi, TX -0.4% -0.8% -1.4%
Uvalde, TX -0.3% -0.6% -1.4%
Dumas, TX 0% 0% -1.4%
Midland, TX 0.1% 0% -1.9%
Kingsville, TX -0.4% -0.8% -1.9%
Andrews, TX 0.1% -0.3% -1.9%
El Campo, TX -0.3% -1.1% -2%
Pampa, TX -0.6% -1.1% -2%
Levelland, TX -0.3% -0.8% -2.5%
Borger, TX -0.3% -0.6% -2.5%
Odessa, TX 0.1% -0.6% -3%
Snyder, TX -0.1% -0.9% -3%
Beaumont, TX -0.1% -0.7% -3.1%
Plainview, TX -1% -2% -3.3%
Rio Grande City, TX -0.5% -1.4% -3.6%
Vernon, TX -1.4% -2.2% -4.3%
Lamesa, TX -0.2% -0.7% -4.5%
Beeville, TX -0.7% -1.7% -5.6%
Raymondville, TX -0.5% -1.4% -6.1%
Sweetwater, TX -1% -2.6% -6.9%
Zapata, TX -0.8% -2.6% -7.2%
Alice, TX -0.8% -2.4% -7.5%
Big Spring, TX -1.6% -3.7% -8.1%
Pecos, TX -1.4% -3.5% -9.5%

Regions Poised for Growth:

Based on Zillow's forecast, areas like Jacksonville, Stephenville, McAllen, and several other smaller cities are projected to see continued, albeit moderate, home price growth over the next year. These smaller MSAs, or even cities within larger MSAs, may have more affordable housing options and greater potential for growth.

Regions Poised for Decline:

Several areas, including Austin, Huntsville, Sulphur Springs, Corpus Christi, and the Permian Basin cities like Odessa and Midland, face the possibility of experiencing a decline in home prices over the next year. Keep in mind that the projected declines are generally relatively small.

Texas Housing Market Forecast for 2026

Extending the forecast beyond the next two years is trickier, as the housing market can be influenced by numerous factors, including economic conditions, employment trends, and changes in interest rates. However, based on my current understanding of the market, I believe that 2026 could potentially show:

  • Continued Slow Growth or Slight Declines: I believe that the market will continue to be somewhat sluggish through most of 2026.
  • Increased Affordability: With a more balanced market and the potential for prices to stabilize, there could be more opportunities for buyers to find a home at a price that feels more reasonable.
  • Continued Moderation in New Construction: I see the new construction market continuing to moderate due to the slowing demand for homes in certain areas.
  • Potential for Increased Interest Rates: I believe there is a possibility of rates rising slightly in 2026, but I don't expect a dramatic rise.

So, Will Home Prices Crash in Texas?

Based on my experience and the data, I do not believe that a housing market crash is on the horizon for Texas. While we are moving into a more balanced market, and some areas are expected to see minor price declines, the overall fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong. The population growth, job market, and demand for housing all support a stable market, rather than a dramatic drop.

Work with Norada in 2025, Your Trusted Source for

Turnkey Real Estate Investing in “Texas”

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

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Filed Under: Financing, Housing Market, Mortgage Tagged With: Home Price Trends, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Real Estate Market, Texas

Is Texas the Next Big Thing? 10 Reasons Texas is the Future

December 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

10 Reasons Why Texas is the Future of America

Texas, once synonymous with dusty plains and sizzling barbeque, has metamorphosed into an economic powerhouse. This is not your grandfather's Texas – the state is fostering an economy that resonates far beyond its borders. An economy larger than a Texan drawl is taking shape, with job opportunities blooming like wildflowers after a rain shower.

Picture a Wild West gold rush of ideas, where tech giants are converging on Austin, and startups are proliferating like bluebonnets in May. Visionaries, with minds as sharp as freshly sharpened Bowie knives, are incubating the next big innovations. It's not just about gadgets; Texas is a hub of energy, from rumbling oil fields to windmills gracefully turning in the breeze.

Texas is not a monolith; it's a diverse tapestry of cultures, a melting pot where each corner has its own distinctive melody. Whether it's the vibrancy of border towns, the charm of quaint cities, or the juxtaposition of dusty ranches against neon-lit skyscrapers, Texas offers a glimpse of a future that caters to every taste.

The gastronomic scene in Texas is a celebration for the taste buds – a symphony of spices that invites a dance with every bite. From traditional flavors to innovative culinary creations, Texas offers a culinary journey that is nothing short of a fiesta.

In the following sections, we'll delve into ten compelling reasons why Texas is not just rewriting its history but shaping the destiny of the entire nation. Get ready for insightful revelations, jaw-dropping facts, and perhaps even a few celebratory yeehaws along the way.

Why Texas is the Future of America?

Here are 10 reasons why America’s future is going to look a lot more like Texas:

Reason #1: Boom-Town Economy – Texas is the Job Hub of the Future

Let's talk money, honey! Forget that dusty piggy bank – Texas is an economic engine so powerful, it sounds like a whole stampede of cattle. Jobs are sproutin' like wildflowers after a spring rain, and the unemployment rate is lower than a snake's belly. Why? Well, there's somethin' special cookin' here:

  • Tech Titans: Silicon Valley ain't the only game in town anymore. Tech giants are stampeding to Texas, like Google moseyin' into Austin and Tesla revvin' up their engines near Dallas. These companies ain't just bringin' fancy gadgets – they're bringin' thousands of high-payin' jobs for everyone, from computer whizzes to marketing mavericks.
  • Startup Stampede: Forget the lone cowboy – Texas is a whole herd of entrepreneurs! Startups are poppin' up faster than tumbleweeds in a windstorm, cookin' up the next big thing in everything from healthcare to sustainable energy. And with plenty of investors lookin' for the next golden nugget, there's no shortage of opportunities for dreamers with big ideas.
  • Job Jamboree: It ain't just tech – Texas has got its fingers in every pie. From energy to healthcare, manufacturing to agriculture, there's a job for everyone here. And unlike some fancy-schmancy states, Texas ain't got no income tax, so you get to keep more of that hard-earned cash for yourself. Just watch out for that shiny new truck syndrome!

Reason #2: Cost of Livin' Like a King – Texas is Affordable Paradise

Remember that piggy bank I mentioned? You can put it away, partner! Texas ain't just about big jobs, it's about livin' large without breakin' the bank. Here's what makes it an affordable oasis:

  • Homestead Hangout: Forget those million-dollar California bungalows – in Texas, your dream home doesn't have to be a pipe dream. Housing prices in Texas are way lower than most other states, so you can snag a spacious spread for the price of a city shoebox. Imagine barbecues on your porch swing and watchin' the sunset over your own piece of land, all without emptyin' your wallet.
  • Taxes, Taxes, Don't Tax Me: Hold onto your Stetson, friend, 'cause this one's a doozy! Texas ain't got no state income tax, so you get to keep more of your hard-earned money. Imagine sayin' goodbye to that big chunk Uncle Sam takes every year and buyin' yourself a brand new pickup truck instead. Just be careful you don't spend it all on tacos!
  • Everyday Expenses: Groceries, gas, even that fancy cowboy hat – it all costs less in Texas. The lower cost of living means you can stretch your dollar further and enjoy the good things in life without feelin' the pinch. So go ahead, order that extra plate of brisket and don't skimp on the queso – there's plenty of room in your budget for Texas-sized portions!

Reason #3: Land of Learning – Texas Schools the Future

Education ain't just about dusty textbooks and cranky teachers anymore. In Texas, schools are pumpin' out future leaders and innovators like a well-oiled oil derrick. Here's why:

  • Top-Tier Universities: From UT Austin to Texas A&M, the Lone Star State boasts some of the best universities in the country. With top-notch professors, cutting-edge research, and diverse programs, these schools are trainin' the next generation of scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs. And guess what? Tuition is way more affordable than most private schools, so you don't have to sell your boots to get a world-class education.
  • Skilled Workforce: Texas ain't just about book smarts – it's about practical skills too. From trade schools to community colleges, there are plenty of options to learn the skills employers are lookin' for, like welding, coding, or even cattle ranchin'. So forget waitin' tables – get yourself some specialized skills and land a high-paying job that'll have you singin' “yeehaw!”
  • Future-Focused Education: Texas schools ain't stuck in the past – they're lookin' towards the future. From STEM programs to entrepreneurship classes, students are learnin' the skills they need to thrive in the ever-changin' economy. So if you're lookin' for a school that'll prepare you for the jobs of tomorrow, Texas is the place to be.

Reason #4: Innovation Incubator – Texas is the Future's Playground

Forget that dusty old barn – Texas is cookin' up the future in labs and garages across the state. Here's what makes it an innovation hub:

  • Tech Tornado: From Austin‘s booming tech scene to Houston‘s energy innovation, Texas is a breeding ground for new ideas. Think self-drivin' cars, renewable energy solutions, and even space travel – they're all bein' dreamed up right here. So put on your thinkin' cap and join the revolution – maybe your next invention will be the next big thing!
  • Startup Stampede: Remember those entrepreneurs I mentioned? They ain't just dreamin' – they're doin'. Texas has a thriving startup scene, with investors pumpin' millions into companies that are changin' the world. So if you've got a big idea and a can-do attitude, there's plenty of support to help you turn your dream into reality.
  • Collaboration Corner: It ain't just about lone wolves in Texas – it's about a pack of innovators workin' together. Universities, businesses, and researchers are all collaboratin' to solve the world's biggest problems. So if you're lookin' for a place to share your ideas and work with the best minds in the biz, Texas is your jam.

Reason #5: Cultural Kaleidoscope – Texas is a World in One State

Forget wearin' the same Stetson every day! In Texas, the cultural diversity is richer than a pot of chili simmerin' all day long. Every corner explodes with its own unique flavor, from the vibrant border towns pulsating with mariachi music to the hipster havens of Austin buzzin' with live music and quirky coffee shops. Here's what makes it a cultural melting pot:

  • Tex-Mex Fiesta: Hold onto your sombreros, 'cause your taste buds are in for a treat! Texas ain't just about barbeque and brisket – it's a Tex-Mex fiesta every night of the week. Savor sizzling fajitas, slurp up spicy margaritas, and dance the night away to the rhythm of a live mariachi band. You'll find a taste of Mexico around every corner, and let me tell you, it's enough to make your boots tap with joy!
  • City Slickers & Country Charmers: From the neon-lit skyscrapers of Dallas to the dusty ranches of West Texas, there's a city (or lack of one) for every soul in Texas. Whether you're a city slicker who thrives on urban buzz or a country charmer who loves the open road, you'll find your tribe in this diverse state. So put on your cowboy boots or your stilettos, and get ready to mingle with all kinds of folks, because that's what Texas is all about – unity in diversity.
  • Global Tapestry: Texas ain't just about homegrown culture – it's a global tapestry woven with threads from all over the world. From Vietnamese pho shops in Houston to Ethiopian cafes in Austin, you can taste and experience the cultures of the world without ever leaving the state. So open your mind (and your stomach!), and be prepared to be surprised by the incredible diversity that Texas has to offer.

Reason #6: Urban Evolution – Texas Cities Shine on the Future Stage

Forget dusty tumbleweeds blowin' down deserted streets – Texas cities are lightnin' up the future with innovation and style. Here's what makes them shine:

  • Tech-Powered Hubs: Cities like Austin and Dallas are transformin' into hubs for tech giants and creative minds. Think walkable streets with sleek skyscrapers, public art installations that'll blow your mind, and sustainable transportation options that are good for the planet. No more honkin' horns and traffic jams – these cities are built for livin', not just workin'.
  • Cultural Renaissance: From world-class museums to diverse music scenes, Texas cities are pulsating with artistic energy. Whether you're a theater enthusiast or a street art aficionado, there's something to ignite your imagination in every corner. So grab your paintbrush or your instrument, and join the creative revolution that's sweepin' Texas.
  • Community Spirit: Forget faceless crowds – Texas cities are fueled by a strong sense of community. Neighborliness is king, and you'll find folks lendin' a hand and offerin' a friendly smile wherever you go. Whether it's a backyard barbecue or a community garden project, there's always a place to belong and feel the warmth of Texan hospitality.

Reason #7: Can-Do Attitude – Texas Dreams Reach for the Stars

Forget waitin' for handouts – Texans got a “can-do” attitude that could move mountains. It's all about takin' risks, thinkin' big, and never givin' up on your dreams. Here's how it shines:

  • Startup Spirit: Texas is a land of entrepreneurs, of folks who turn ideas into empires and dreams into reality. From oil tycoons to tech whizzes, the spirit of innovation runs deep in every Texan's veins. So don't be afraid to chase your wildest dreams – in Texas, anything is possible if you put your mind to it.
  • Independent Streak: Texans are a fiercely independent bunch who value self-reliance and hard work. They ain't afraid to get their hands dirty and sweat for what they believe in. So if you're tired of the rat race and the corporate grind, Texas might just be your utopia. Come here, roll up your sleeves, and build your own empire.
  • No Excuses Policy: Forget complainin' and finger-pointin'. In Texas, excuses are as dusty as a long-forgotten barn. Here, it's all about solutions, not problems. So roll up your sleeves, put your shoulder to the wheel, and show everyone what you're made of. Remember, the sky's the limit in Texas!

Reason #8: Green & Gritty – Texas Balances Progress with Preservation

Forget dusty plains and smoggy skies – Texas is paintin' a greener future! Here's how they're findin' harmony between progress and preservation:

  • Renewable Roar: Forget oil wells pumpin' black gold – Texas is harnessin' the power of the sun, wind, and even the tides to generate clean energy. From vast solar farms to towering wind turbines, the Lone Star State is leadin' the charge in the fight against climate change. So take a deep breath of fresh air – the future's lookin' brighter in Texas.
  • Land-Lovin' Legacy: While Texas is all about innovation, they ain't forgot about their roots. Land conservation is a big deal here, with parks and protected areas preservin' the natural beauty of the state. Hike through ancient canyons, kayak through cypress swamps, or camp under a sky full of stars – Texas has a wild side for everyone to enjoy.
  • Sustainable Future: From eco-friendly cities to responsible recycling initiatives, Texas is takin' the environment seriously. They're buildin' with green materials, reducin' waste, and lookin' for ways to live in harmony with nature. So if you're lookin' for a place that cares about the planet, Texas is your new green haven.

Reason #9: Crossroads of Challenges – Texas Tackles the Future's Obstacles

Forget buryin' your head in the sand – Texans face their challenges head-on. Here's how they're navigatin' the bumpy road ahead:

  • Bridging the Gap: Texas ain't blind to its inequalities. They're workin' to bridge the gap between rich and poor, urban and rural, and offerin' everyone a chance to succeed. From educational initiatives to affordable healthcare programs, they're buildin' a future where everyone gets a fair shot.
  • Growth & Growing Pains: Boomin' populations and rapid development bring their own set of problems. Texas is addressin' traffic congestion, infrastructure needs, and housing shortages in creative ways. So don't let the construction cones fool you – it's just Texas growin' pains, buildin' a better future for everyone.
  • Embracing Change: Forget resistin' the inevitable – Texans are adaptable and always lookin' for ways to improve. They're listenin' to diverse voices, learnin' from their mistakes, and constantly reinventin' themselves. So if you're lookin' for a state that's always movin' forward, Texas is your ticket to the future.

Reason #10: A Texas-Sized Dream – The Future Ain't Just Here, It's Texan

Forget dreamin' small in Texas, the sky's the limit! Here's what makes this state a glimpse into the future:

  • Optimism Overload: Texans got a can-do spirit that's contagious. They believe in themselves, their communities, and their state, and that optimism is what fuels their progress. So come catch the Texas fever – it's a powerful antidote to cynicism and a guaranteed boost to your own dreams.
  • Big Ideas, Big Actions: Texans ain't afraid to think big and dream even bigger. They're bold, ambitious, and always pushin' the boundaries of what's possible. So if you've got a crazy idea and a fire in your belly, this is the place to let it loose. The future's wide open in Texas, and there's plenty of room for your dreams to take flight.
  • A Welcome for All: Forget closed doors and narrow minds – Texas is a land of opportunity for everyone. No matter your background, beliefs, or dreams, there's a place for you here. So don't be shy, saddle up, and join the ride into the Texan future. It's gonna be a wild one!

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Filed Under: Best Places Tagged With: Texas

McAllen, TX Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

December 2, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

McAllen, TX Housing Market Trends and Predictions 2024

Are you considering buying or selling a home in McAllen? The McAllen housing market currently shows a somewhat competitive environment with a median home sale price of $294K, which represents a 2.1% increase compared to last year. However, the market is evolving, and it's essential to stay updated on the latest trends to navigate the process smoothly. Let's delve deeper into the current state of the McAllen real estate market.

McAllen Housing Market Trends in 2024: 

Home Sales

According to Redfin, in October 2024, the number of homes sold in McAllen was 80, slightly down from 81 the previous year. This slight dip in sales might be attributed to several factors, such as rising interest rates, a limited housing inventory, or a general economic slowdown. However, the decrease is relatively minor, suggesting the market is still active.

Based on my understanding, the decrease in home sales isn't alarming. In fact, it could be a positive sign of market stabilization. Buyers and sellers are becoming more cautious in their decisions, which can lead to healthier transactions in the long run. It's not a sudden crash; rather, a sign of a more controlled and balanced market.

Home Prices

As mentioned earlier, the median sale price of homes in McAllen reached $293,500 in October 2024. This represents a 2.1% increase compared to the same time last year. While there's a price increase, it's important to note that the rate of increase has slowed down. The growth in home prices isn't as dramatic as it was in the past few years. This could mean the peak of the rapid price escalation has passed.

The median sale price per square foot is currently at \$141, which represents a 2.1% decrease compared to last year. This data point suggests that buyers might be getting slightly more house for their money compared to last year, although it's a minor change.

One of the key factors influencing home prices is the supply and demand dynamics of the market. When demand for houses exceeds supply, prices tend to rise. However, if supply increases or demand slows down, prices might stabilize or even decrease.

Housing Supply

One of the major challenges in the McAllen housing market is the limited housing supply. There are fewer homes available for sale compared to the number of buyers interested in purchasing. This limited inventory is contributing to the competitive nature of the market, as buyers often find themselves in bidding wars or competing with multiple offers.

Market Trends

The McAllen housing market currently displays several notable trends:

  • Slowing Price Growth: The rate at which home prices are increasing has slowed down compared to previous years.
  • Increased Days on Market: Homes are staying on the market for longer compared to last year, with an average of 98 days.
  • Slight Decrease in Sales: The number of homes sold has slightly decreased.
  • Competitive Market: The market remains competitive, with some homes receiving multiple offers.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the current McAllen housing market trends, it's leaning towards a more balanced market, with elements of both buyer and seller advantages.

  • Buyer Advantages:
    • Slower price growth provides more negotiation power.
    • Homes stay on the market for longer, giving buyers more time to consider.
  • Seller Advantages:
    • The market is still competitive with some homes receiving multiple offers.
    • Demand remains relatively strong, given the consistent home sales and price growth.

In essence, it is a good time for buyers to take a look around. The rapid escalation of the last few years is gone. However, sellers should also know that a significant price drop is not expected, but they also have to be ready to negotiate and accommodate buyers.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While there has been a slowing down of price growth, the median sale price has still increased compared to last year. Therefore, it's not accurate to say that home prices are dropping significantly. However, the situation could change in the coming months.

Based on my experience, the McAllen housing market is more resilient than some other markets in the region. It's a desirable location with a relatively strong local economy. Therefore, a major price crash is unlikely. Still, buyers might benefit from the slowing price growth and potentially negotiate a better deal.

Here's a Summary Table

Factor October 2024 Data Year-over-Year Change Significance
Median Sale Price $293,500 +2.1% Slowing Growth
Homes Sold 80 -1.2% Minor Decrease
Median Days on Market 98 +62 Increased
Sale-to-List Price 96.2% -0.31 pt Minor Decrease
Homes Sold Above List Price 11.2% -12.2 pt Decreased
Homes with Price Drops 23.0% -2.9 pt Decreased

Source: Redfin

McAllen Migration & Relocation Trends

Redfin data suggests that about 57% of homebuyers in McAllen are looking to stay within the metropolitan area. However, a significant portion (43%) are looking to move out, with Austin being the most popular destination, followed by San Antonio and Dallas.

Looking at the inbound migration, people are moving into McAllen from areas like Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, and Miami.

These migration trends suggest that while McAllen is a desirable location for some, others are seeking opportunities in larger metropolitan areas like Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas.

Schools in McAllen

McAllen has a good school district. It also has a large number of private and charter schools. McAllen ISD is the largest school district in the Rio Grande Valley, and it offers a wide range of educational programs. For families with children, the quality of the school district is an essential consideration when buying a home.

Climate's Impact on McAllen Housing

McAllen is known for its hot and humid climate, and this can have a significant impact on the housing market. In my view, it's essential to assess the potential effects of natural hazards like floods, fires, wind, and heat when considering buying a home in the area.

Flood Factor: 43% of properties are at risk of severe flooding over the next 30 years.

Fire Factor: 49% of properties are at risk of wildfire over the next 30 years.

Wind Factor: 99% of properties are at severe risk of a severe wind event over the next 30 years.

Heat Factor: 93% of properties are at extreme risk of heat over the next 30 years.

Source: First Street Foundation

McAllen, TX Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

The McAllen housing market forecast suggests a relatively positive outlook for the next few years, with a gradual but steady increase in home values. According to Zillow's predictions, home values in McAllen are expected to rise by about 4.4% by October 2025. Let's dive into the details to understand this prediction better.

Understanding Home Price Forecast for McAllen

Zillow's forecast uses a blend of historical data, economic trends, and current market conditions to predict future home value changes. Based on their analysis, here's what we can expect for McAllen:

Forecast Date Projected Home Value Change (%)
November 2024 0.1%
January 2025 0.5%
October 2025 4.4%

As you can see, the forecast projects a slow and steady climb in home values over the next year or so. It's important to remember that these are just predictions, and the actual market performance might vary. However, I believe this outlook is generally positive for the McAllen housing market and bodes well for both buyers and sellers.

McAllen's Position Compared to Other Texas Regions

It's interesting to compare McAllen's forecast to other Texas regions.

  • Several cities like Jacksonville, Stephenville, and Hereford show similar trends, with a slightly higher growth projection.
  • On the other hand, some cities like Brownsville and Waco show a much lower growth trajectory or even a slight decrease in home values.

This information highlights that the McAllen region is performing favorably compared to other parts of the state, potentially showing resilience against current economic challenges.

Will Home Prices Drop or Crash in McAllen?

Based on the current forecast, I don't foresee a significant price drop or housing market crash in McAllen. Zillow projects a steady increase in home values, which does not suggest a crash. However, it's important to remember that external factors can influence the housing market.

  • Interest rate hikes: The Federal Reserve's actions impact mortgage rates, potentially making it more expensive to buy a home.
  • Inflation: Increased costs of goods and services can impact affordability and consumer behavior, leading to market adjustments.
  • Regional and local economic conditions: Changes in job markets and employment rates can impact housing demand.

Possible Forecast for 2026

Predicting the McAllen housing market beyond 2025 becomes more speculative, but based on the trends we see in the current forecast and the regional economy, I believe we could see home value growth continue at a similar pace.

It's crucial to stay informed and consider the factors mentioned above. While the current forecast is positive, it's important to remain cautious and monitor market changes as they unfold.

My Final Thoughts

The McAllen housing market seems to be doing fairly well amidst economic challenges, with a steady and positive growth forecast. While nothing is guaranteed, the outlook is generally optimistic, suggesting a favorable environment for both homebuyers and sellers. I am confident that McAllen will continue to be an attractive and stable housing market in the coming years.

Is the McAllen Housing Market Expensive?

McAllen is actually considered quite affordable compared to the national average. Here's a breakdown of some key cost-of-living factors:

  • Housing: McAllen boasts housing costs significantly lower than the national average. RentCafe reports McAllen housing to be 43% cheaper than the U.S. average. While home prices have risen, they remain well below the national benchmark (reported as 39% lower by Redfin).
  • Groceries and Clothing: Everyday essentials like groceries and clothing are also cheaper in McAllen. Payscale estimates grocery prices to be 17% lower and clothing costs 13% lower compared to the national average.
  • Transportation: The cost of transportation, including gas and public transport, is also lower in McAllen, with Payscale indicating it's 13% cheaper than the national average.

However, there are some exceptions:

  • Utilities: Utilities in McAllen can be slightly more expensive than the national average. Payscale reports them to be around 5% higher.

Overall, McAllen offers a relatively low cost of living, particularly when it comes to housing. This affordability makes it an attractive option for many people.

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Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market, McAllen, Texas

Is The Austin TX Housing Market in Big Trouble?

November 30, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Is The Austin TX Housing Market in Big Trouble?

The once-sizzling Austin, Texas housing market is experiencing a period of significant correction, raising questions about its future trajectory. This article delves deeper into the current situation, exploring the data and local factors shaping this shift.

Is The Austin TX Housing Market in Big Trouble?

A Glut of Inventory Dampens Prices

The most striking change is the dramatic increase in housing inventory. Compared to a mere five years ago, there's a staggering 26% jump in available homes, with a further 24% increase over the last year alone. This stands in stark contrast to the national trend, where inventory has shrunk by double-digits year-over-year.

The consequence? Home prices, once on a seemingly neverending upward climb, are feeling the pressure. They've dropped by 4.1% year-over-year and a concerning 19.5% compared to the peak of 2022. While this might seem alarming, it's important to consider the long-term perspective. Austin prices are still 38.8% higher than March 2020, indicating long-term growth despite the recent correction.

Price Cuts Become the New Normal

Adding to the story are the high number of price reductions. A significant portion of homes in Austin, currently a whopping 48%, have undergone price cuts, a figure considerably higher than the national average of 33%. This trend has been steadily climbing, with past years showing much lower percentages of price reductions.

A Surge in New Listings Fuels the Inventory Fire

Another factor contributing to the market shift is the unprecedented rate of new listings hitting the market. Over the past five years, Austin has seen a staggering 133% increase in new listings, compared to a national decrease. This trend continues with significant increases over shorter periods as well.

A Tale of Two Cities: Austin Diverges from National Trends

The national housing market grapples with low inventory, presenting a stark contrast to the situation in Austin. Inventory levels have skyrocketed by a staggering 342% in just the last two years, compared to a national drop of 22%. This dramatic discrepancy highlights the unique challenges Austin faces.

Beyond Inventory: Local Factors Cloud the Forecast

The story doesn't end with inventory. The Austin market is also contending with specific local factors that add pressure. The surge in new home construction, with 474 new communities boasting over 6,200 new houses for sale, further contributes to the inventory glut. Many of these new builds are resorting to price cuts, further exacerbating the issue.

Adding another layer of complexity are the recent Tesla layoffs in Austin. With nearly 2,700 workers potentially needing to relocate, the market could see an influx of houses for sale, putting additional downward pressure on prices. This could lead to a flight of some buyers who may be wary of a saturated market.

Affordability: A Double-Edged Sword

For years, affordability has been a major concern for Austin residents. The recent price drops might be seen as a welcome sign, offering a potential entry point for some buyers. However, rising interest rates coupled with overall inflation could dampen overall affordability. It's crucial to consider the entire financial picture before making a purchase.

The Tech Industry: A Wild Card

Austin's economy has been heavily driven by the tech industry's boom. While the tech sector is still a major player, recent concerns about a potential tech recession could cast a shadow on the housing market. A slowdown in tech hiring or job cuts could further impact buyer demand.

Navigating the New Landscape: A Time for Careful Consideration

The Austin housing market is undoubtedly in a period of transition. While some may view the current situation as a buying opportunity, potential buyers and investors should exercise caution. Careful consideration of these trends and a thorough understanding of the local market, including potential job market fluctuations and interest rate movements, are crucial before making any real estate decisions.

It's also important to remember that Austin's long-term economic fundamentals remain strong. Whether this is a temporary correction or a sign of a more significant shift remains to be seen. Those considering entering the Austin market should seek the guidance of experienced local real estate professionals to navigate this evolving landscape.

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Is the Housing Market Headed for a 1970s-Style Downturn?

November 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Is the Housing Market Headed for a 1970s-Style Downturn?

The 1970s are often remembered as a time of economic turmoil, with high inflation and interest rates creating a challenging environment for homebuyers and real estate developers alike. Today, some analysts are drawing parallels between that difficult decade and the current state of the U.S. housing market. Here's some fascinating data recently published on Yahoo Finance.

In the '70s, the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation led to increased borrowing costs, which in turn reduced the purchasing power of potential homebuyers. This resulted in a stagnant housing market, characterized by the term “stagflation” – a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, indicating a period of slow growth and high unemployment coupled with rising prices.

Fast forward to today, and we see echoes of that era. High inflation rates have returned, and the Federal Reserve has once again raised interest rates in response. This has made borrowing more expensive for real estate developers and has dampened the purchasing power of homebuyers. However, there are key differences that set the current market apart from the '70s.

Key Differences:

  • Job market: Today is robust, showing solid growth despite other economic pressures.
  • Supply and demand: The issue at the heart of today's housing market is not a lack of demand, but rather a lack of supply.

A significant housing supply gap, estimated at 6.5 million homes, has been identified as a major factor in the current housing market sector. This gap is attributed to over a decade of underbuilding, exacerbated by the pandemic's impact on the market.

Moreover, while home prices have increased by 5.7% over the past year, they have actually come down from their peak increase of 8% in March 2023. This suggests that the market may be adjusting, albeit slowly, to the supply and demand imbalances that have driven prices up.

Experts like Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, and Claudia Sahm, former Fed economist and chief economist at New Century Advisors, LLC, have weighed in on the situation. They argue that the current market conditions do not constitute stagflation, as the problem is rooted in weak supply rather than weak demand.

Sure, here is an article based on the Yahoo Finance report:

Is the Housing Market Headed for a 1970s-Style Downturn?

The housing market in the United States is facing some challenges that have drawn comparisons to the 1970s. However, there are also some key differences between the two periods.

In the 1970s, the economy was characterized by high inflation and stagnant growth. This led to a significant slowdown in the housing market, as rising interest rates made it more expensive for borrowers to qualify for mortgages.

Today's economy is also experiencing inflation, and interest rates are beginning to rise. However, there are some important differences. The job market is currently strong, and there is a shortage of homes available for sale. This shortage is putting upward pressure on home prices.

Economists predict that the housing market is likely to slow down in the coming months, but they do not expect a collapse. This is due to the strong underlying fundamentals of the economy.

What to Expect for the Housing Market?

Economists predict that the housing market is likely to slow down in the coming months. However, they do not expect a collapse. This is due to the strong underlying fundamentals of the economy.

Here are some things that homebuyers can expect:

  • Higher home prices: Home prices are likely to continue to rise in the near term, but the rate of growth is expected to slow.
  • Rising interest rates: Interest rates are expected to continue to rise, which will make it more expensive to buy a home.
  • Slower sales: The pace of home sales is likely to slow down.

Despite these challenges, the housing market is still expected to remain healthy. The strong job market and the shortage of homes available for sale are likely to continue to support demand.

Recommended Read:

  • Will the Next HOUSING CRASH Be WORSE Than 2008?
  • Why a 2008-Style Housing Market Crash is Unlikely in 2025?
  • 3 BIG Cities Facing High Housing BUBBLE Risk: Crash Alert?
  • Will Fed's Policy Lead to a Crash in the Housing Market?
  • Will Housing Be Cheaper if the Market Crashes in 2025?

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Texas, Worst Places to Live in Texas

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