This page has been updated to reflect the most recent trends in the San Francisco Bay Area housing market. While the national housing market appears to be cooling, it hasn't declined significantly as much in the Bay Area. The real estate market in the Bay Area is hot, with the median price topping $1 million for the eighth month in a row. The median sale price for a Bay Area home last month was $1.27 million.
The Bay Area housing market is distinguished by high demand, cheap mortgage rates, and a scarcity of available inventory. Due to increased demand from the state's high-income residents who can take advantage of low-interest mortgage rates, home prices are skyrocketing. Is the housing market in the Bay Area cooling? No, most likely not. And, while inventories may grow in the fall, anticipate plenty of competition from buyers.
According to current trends, housing prices in the majority of Bay Area communities will continue to climb over the next twelve months. A significant number of purchasers led home prices to increase over the previous year in September. Despite this, a new report from the California Association of Realtors suggests that the region's housing market may be leveling off after months of record-breaking prices, bidding wars, and growing fear of unaffordability.
The median sales price of this region, which includes all nine counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma, was $1,275,000 ($717 per Sq Ft). According to C.A.R., this is almost a 16% increase over last October. It was the highest year-over-year gain in California. Bay Area house prices were slightly down by 1.2% from the previous month.
Sales of existing homes were down in all the five major regions of the California housing market. Single-family housing sales in the San Francisco Bay Area were down 7.3% over the previous year, with seven of the region's nine counties also posting a decrease in sales. The inventory is quite low. As of October 2021, the months of supply for existing single-family houses have fallen to 1.4 months.
For buyers (who didn’t lose a job) low-interest rates are making buying a home hard to resist. Homes are selling for more than the asking price because new home buyers are ready to spend more to win bids. Only those who do not have enough money for a down payment are delaying their purchases. Looking at the low supply of homes, interested investors may have a difficult time finding available properties in the Bay Area.
All the nine counties of the Bay Area posted gains in the home prices as compared to last year. San Francisco County saw a price growth of 12.1% while San Mateo County had the largest price growth of 25.6%. Buyers in suburban areas like Santa Clara, San Mateo, and Contra Costa counties appear to be searching for more room in their houses, which is driving up median home prices. Although home prices grew in all the counties only Alameda & San Mateo counties posted annual growth of more than 20%. The third-highest price rise was seen in Marin (14.7%).
It was followed by Contra Costa (14.4%), Solano (14.2%), Napa (13.4%), and Santa Clara (12.7%). Sales Price to List Price Ratio in Bay Area was 105.5% in October signaling a very competitive market. Anything over 100% gives sellers an upper hand in price negotiations. The housing supply remains tight. The unsold inventory index now sits at 1.4 months, which means it would take less than six weeks to squeeze away all the listings from the market at the current sales pace.
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Bay Area Housing Market Trends 2021 (Describes October)
Below is the latest tabulated housing market report for the entire Bay Area release by the California Association of Realtors. The tabulated report shows the sales and prices of the Bay Area counties for October 2021. Much of the Bay Area real estate market remains firmly in “seller's market” territory with months of supply of available single-family homes being less than six weeks at the current pace of sales.
San Francisco (County) Housing Market Trends 2021 (Resales | Rents | Condos)
Tech hubs like San Francisco and San Jose have drawn substantial homebuyer demand over the years but San Francisco’s infamously hot real estate market saw an outward migration due to the pandemic. People were leaving the city, increasing demand in the suburbs. The value of suburban single-family homes is skyrocketing, while rents and pricing in tech hubs are falling. Recent market trends indicate that the market is reviving and will most likely heat up again in the coming months.
- In October, the existing single-family home sales growth was positive in SF county.
- The closed sales were up by 6.4% from the previous year and 27.5% from the previous month, according to C.A.R.
- The median price for a single-family home in San Francisco County was $1,822,000, up 12.1% YTY and 4.1% MTM.
The number of active listings in San Francisco peaked in August of last year, reaching a four-year high. In August 2020, the median listing price of a San Francisco home was less than $1.4 million, the lowest since February 2019. Many real estate agents believe that the San Francisco housing market has begun to cool, even though demand remains strong in suburban neighborhoods. The pandemic has accelerated migration out of large cities, and it seems like most of the movement is going to be a permanent one.
In California, San Francisco and Los Angeles are the top markets for outward migration, for both permanent and temporary moves during the pandemic. Rents and condominium prices are expected to grow over the next twelve months, according to most analysts. Lesser-known areas with greater space, such as the Richmond, Sunset, and West Portal, are becoming increasingly popular for single-family homes.
Rents were falling in many major cities across the country due to the pandemic, but the drop was most pronounced in San Francisco, one of the nation's priciest housing markets. Housing markets like San Francisco, Santa Clara, Boston, Seattle, and others, have seen rents decline by double digits since the onset of the pandemic. Studio rents have been falling on a year-over-year basis since March when the pandemic led to lockdowns but it took until May for rents to begin falling for one and two-bedroom units.
In March 2020, just before the pandemic fully impacted the housing market, rents in tech cities were growing 2.8% year-over-year. Nearly a year later, in February, tech cities saw rent growth hit its lowest point. After months of price declines in the bay area rental market, San Francisco and San Jose are finally seeing rents grow. According to Realtor.com, following the upward trend, San Francisco rents reached $2,895 in August 2021, up 1.4% year over year. Earlier this year, rents in San Francisco were declining by 12.6% compared to last year.
San Francisco rents peaked at $3,008 in August 2019, just $113 (3.8%) greater than the current monthly rent. In the densest areas with big tech industries, rents are still lagging behind historical peaks. It is mostly because tech workers account for a disproportionate share of San Francisco residents, and tech companies are more likely to have implemented broad or permanent work-from-home policies. This gives those workers the freedom to live wherever they want, and many of them have decided that they do not want to live in San Francisco.
The Bay Area continues to see an accelerating rate of rent growth, suggesting that the signals of a rebound from earlier this year are now a trend that’s likely to continue. San Francisco posted the largest median one-bedroom monthly gain among the three major Bay cities at 5.3 percent (source: Zumper). On a quarterly basis, it’s clear that the Bay Area has turned a corner.
After four quarters of sharp drops in rent, each of its three major cities saw rents rise in Q2 of 2021 compared to Q1, including a 5.3 percent increase for San Francisco. With life in the Bay Area getting back to “normal,” there is no reason to think this won’t continue in the near term. This growing tendency implies that people are willing to return to big cities, and it could indicate that workers are returning to these locations.
San Francisco has seen some of the biggest pandemic-related disruptions. It is now the second most expensive city to rent after New York. It has fallen behind New York in median one-bedroom rent, with New York at $2,810 and San Francisco at $2,800.
As of November 21, 2021, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco, CA is $2,792. This is a 3% increase compared to the previous year. Over the past month, the average rent for a studio apartment in San Francisco decreased by -1% to $2,025. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment remained flat, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment decreased by -3% to $3,800.
- The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in San Francisco, CA is currently $3,800. This is a 6% increase compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in San Francisco, CA is currently $4,655. This is a 4% increase compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 4-bedroom apartment in San Francisco, CA is currently $5,600. This is a 2% increase compared to the previous year.
San Francisco Condo/Townhomes Market Trends: A Big Growth in Sales
The high inventory levels for condos and townhomes in San Francisco county have made it favorable for condo buyers. The current unsold condo inventory index is 3.1 months and the sustained oversupply is finally lowering median prices of condos. People simply no longer wish to live in densely populated areas, especially apartment buildings where they have to share common areas. They want enough space for a home office or two and their own outdoor space as well.
The current median price for a San Francisco condo is $1,249,500, which is an increase of 4.2% from last year. The price is also down by -1.7% from last month. The good thing for SF condos was that lower prices were driving more sales. Condo sales in SF county have increased by 43.8% as compared to October of last year. In June 2021, it was a massive growth of 216.2% year-over-year.
Such massive annual growth shows that condo sales are going extremely strong. There is a consistent demand for condos. The month-to-month sales growth was 23.4 percent. Higher levels of inventory, following a flood of new listings during the pandemic, are sitting on the market in the city proper, a significantly larger jump than the surrounding suburbs. In San Francisco, though, the softening is clear as sellers flood the market with their listings and buyers have not changed their pace to match.
San Francisco had an unusually low inventory relative to other large cities before the pandemic. You can expect more condo listings and prices could come down, even more in the second half of 2021. It could be an opportunity for those that have been wanting to buy a condo for a while and were previously priced out.
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Forecast 2021-2022
San Francisco Bay Area consistently ranks among the most expensive real estate markets in the world, and it is one of the most densely populated cities in the U.S. The Bay Area housing market consists of all nine counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma) and 101 municipalities. The region is home to three major cities: San Francisco, Oakland, and, the largest, San Jose.
San Francisco's real estate market is shaping up to continue the trend of the last few years as one of the hottest markets in California. What are the San Francisco real estate market predictions for 2021 & 2022? Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Since Nov 2011, the San Francisco County home values have appreciated by nearly 116% — Zillow Home Value Index.
As you can see in the graph given below, the San Francisco & Bay Area home values increased consistently, from 2012 through 2018. After that, it marked the beginning of a flattening out of prices which lasted for over a year. ZHVI is not the median price of homes that are sold in a month within a geographic region. It is calculated by taking all estimated home values for a given region and month (Also called Zestimates), taking a median of those values, applying some adjustments to account for seasonality or errors in individual home estimates.
It, therefore, represents the whole housing stock and not just the homes that list or sell in a given month. By this calculation, the current typical home value of homes in San Francisco County is $1,526,154. It indicates that 50 percent of all housing stock in the area is worth more than $1,526,154 and 50 percent is worth less (adjusting for seasonal fluctuations and only includes the middle price tier of homes).
In October 2020, the typical value of homes in San Francisco County was around $1.41 million. Home values have gone up 8.0% over the last twelve months. The typical value of homes in San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward Metro (Bay Area) is $1,346,995, up 17.0% over the past year. Here are Zillow's latest home price projections for the Bay Area and its counties. The exact rate of appreciation for the counties for the next twelve months is not available as we write this.
However, you can gauge it by looking at the past trends shown in the graph. Due to supply-demand imbalance, property appreciation is certain in 2021. If mortgage rates remain lower than last year's average, it can play an important role in the price growth. For current homeowners and those looking to sell, there is a lot of money to be made as housing prices have increased in all the counties.
- Bay Area (San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward Metro) home values have gone up 17.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 8.7% in the next twelve months.
- San Francisco County home values have gone up 8.0% over the past year but they are expected to increase in the next twelve months.
- Alameda County home values have gone up 21.9% (current = $1,131,709) over the past year and they will continue to rise in the next twelve months.
- Contra Costa County home values have gone up 22.3% (current= $901,972) over the past year and they will continue to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
- Marin County home values have gone up 16.3% (current = $1,479,163) over the past year and they will continue to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
- Napa County home values have gone up 19.5% (current = $874,122) over the past year and they will continue to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
- San Mateo County home values have gone up only 14% (current = $1,630,026) over the past year and they are expected to rise at a faster pace in the next twelve months.
- Santa Clara County home values have gone up 16.7% (current = $1,497,288) over the past year and they will continue to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
- Solano County home values have gone up 22.2% (current = $582,836) over the past year and they will continue to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
- Sonoma County home values have gone up 15.1% (current = $767,049) over the past year and they are expected to rise at a similar pace in the next twelve months.
Here is the graphical representation of historical home prices in this region and their forecast until October 2022.
Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the San Francisco housing market made a large recovery in sales from the steep declines in March and April. The median sold price hit a new monthly high in June ($1,800,000). As affluent buyers are least affected by the economic downturn, they are seen to have been jumping back into the market to a greater degree than other segments. High-end luxury real estate has seen a very strong demand in virtually every housing market in the entire Bay Area.
The pandemic & economic shutdowns have not had much impact on this housing market. The buyer demand has been significantly high as is reflected in the latest housing data. Despite high rates of unemployment and an economic downturn, housing has held onto its value in the San Francisco Bay Area. As the Bay Area employs a high number of skilled workers with college degrees, its unemployment rate is lower than other areas of the United States, and its housing market is holding strong.
The high-end buyer activity has pushed the median price to an all-time high. More affluent buyers having the greatest financial resources have been jumping back into the market to a greater degree than other segments. Nationally, the showing activity has notably increased from the depressed levels in recent months, reflecting pent-up demand by prospective home buyers. The fall season has become as active as the summer buying season.
Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the SF Bay Area real estate market made a large recovery from the steep declines in March and April. SF median house sales prices are as high as they’ve ever been. The median condo sales price has also been running higher than the highs of last year. It recorded an increase of 12.2% YTY in Oct 2021. Condo sales are surged by 9.7% YTY. The condo market is seeing growth in new listings, especially in San Francisco County, where we're seeing a softening of prices.
While the annual price growth was 4.2% in October, the condo sales posted a massive growth of 43.8% from a year ago. In a balanced real estate market, it would take about five to six months for the supply to dwindle to zero. In terms of months of supply, San Francisco, or the entire Bay Area housing market can become a buyer’s real estate market if the supply increases to more than five months of inventory. And that’s not going to happen.
Because of a persistent imbalance in supply and demand, the entire Bay Area region is heavily skewed toward sellers. In October, the inventory of available single-family homes remained at 1.4 months, indicating that buyer demand had risen to a new high. This will cause property prices to rise at a moderate rate in the coming months. The supply of listings in San Francisco County was at its highest point in 8 years in August 2020. Correct pricing becomes increasingly important for sellers as the market softens. When this occurs, the sellers will be forced to compete for buyers.
The good news for buyers in San Francisco and the rest of the Bay Area is that mortgage rates are still low (around 2.87 percent) when compared to last year's average rate. As a result, now is a good time for them to enter the market and seize their favorite deals, as rising San Francisco home prices have reduced housing affordability.
Real estate market forecasts given in this article are just an educated guess and should not be considered financial advice. Real estate prices are deeply cyclical and much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. Many variables could potentially impact the value of a home in San Francisco in 2021 (or any other market) such as big changes in the distressed, new-construction, or luxury home segments. There are also a wide variety of economic and political factors that can and do impact real estate markets. Most of these variables are difficult to predict in advance.
San Francisco Real Estate Investment Overview
Should you consider San Francisco real estate investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in San Francisco is a good investment as the median price for a two-bedroom sits at $1.35 million. The high cost of real estate in San Francisco is impossible for most families to manage. Exodus is yet another problem and a new report confirms that the numbers are staggering. Online real estate company Zillow released new statistics shining a stark light on the issue this week.
Their “2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report” reveals that inventory has risen a whopping 96% year on year, as empty homes in the city flood the market like nowhere else in the country. Although this article alone is not a comprehensive source to make a final investment decision for San Francisco, we have collected some evidence-based positive things for those who are keen to invest in the San Francisco real estate market. If you can afford it, then it’s an investment that will continue to increase in value over time.
Amid low interest rates, there has been an influx of high-end luxury buyers, with certain instances where homes have been sold for $1 million over asking. Let’s talk a bit about San Francisco and the surrounding bay area before we discuss what lies ahead for investors and homebuyers. San Francisco is home to nearly 900,000 people. It is the hub of the San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland area; this larger metro area is home to nearly nine million people.
The city alternately makes the news for people paying incredibly high rents to live in boxes, the homeless problem, and the tech industry. This makes many think about why or how anyone could live there. Others would think why you’d want to buy a property now in such an overvalued real estate market. Yet we can give you ten positive signs about the San Francisco housing market 2020. Keep on reading to find out more. Why is housing so expensive in San Francisco?
First of all, the entire state of California has a consistent housing shortage due to limited land. Most of the cities including San Francisco are failing to meet the regional housing needs. New construction permits in all cities often lag due to community resistance which blocks new housing. Jobs are increasing and the economy is strongest in 50 years. But due to the tight supply of homes, San Francisco home prices have grown much faster than incomes.
The minimum annual income required for owning a house in the San Francisco bay area in 2019 was $197,970. That's an increase of 119.1% since 2012 when affordability was at its peak. Homeownership is not rebounding anytime soon in San Francisco. By 2025 more than 60% of the population is estimated to rent. Housing affordability has been a consistent issue for first-time buyers over the last few years. They have limited options in the San Francisco housing market.
Although mortgage rates have decreased, big down payments & all-time high home prices aren't spurring more sales. Many simply can’t afford to buy a house due to these factors. Despite Covid-19, in the latest quarter, the San Francisco real estate appreciation rate has been around 0.21%, which amounts to an annual rate of 0.84%. Some experts feel that home prices may drop by 1 to 2% in the next twelve months.
This is a good sign for new homebuyers and investors as far as affordability is concerned as many of them can’t afford to buy a median-priced home in San Francisco. We shall discuss some more important reasons why you may want to consider buying San Francisco investment properties for the long-term buy and hold.
San Francisco's Strong Economy Propels Real Estate
Why doesn’t everyone just move out of the San Francisco housing market? Some do move, but they have a one and a half to two-hour commute each way to work because they still want to work there. They just can’t afford to live there. Moreover, it is the high-tech job market that draws so many people to San Francisco and leaves many others struggling to pay the bills. San Francisco is turning into a major international city. It is a white-collar city, with fully 90.74% of the workforce employed in white-collar jobs, well above the national average.
In a report published by Google in June 2019, it announced one billion dollars of investment in housing across the Bay Area. A 10-year plan to add thousands of homes to the Bay Area. The company would be making this major investment in what it believes is the most important social issue in the bay area real estate market.
This proposition by Google will add thousands of new homes to the Bay Area real estate market over the next ten years. About $750 million would be used for repurposing Google's own commercial real estate for residential purposes. This will allow for 15,000 new homes at all income levels in the Bay area. Another $250 million investment fund would be utilized to provide incentives to enable developers to build at least 5,000 affordable housing units across the Bay area housing market.
As a move to support affordable housing initiatives these investments will help Google plans to give $50 million in grants through Google.org to nonprofits focused on the issues of homelessness and displacement of citizens. The company also plans to fund community spaces that provide free access to co-working areas for nonprofits, improve transit options for the community, and support programs for career development, education, and local businesses.
As it is the epicenter of the technology industry, there are a lot of people with an immense amount of wealth. Wealth isn’t just limited to the uber-wealthy founders of major tech companies or successful VCs but also the general workforce, whose salaries and incomes are among the highest in the world. Overall, San Francisco is a city of professionals, managers, and sales and office workers. Also of interest is that San Francisco has more people living here who work in computers and math than 95% of the places in the US.
The predicted 2020 job market slowdown won’t result in layoffs, just a drop in job growth to 1.5 to 2 percent a year. Note that the area already has an unemployment rate of 1.2 percent below the national average. The unemployment rate in the San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco MD was 1.8 percent in December 2019, down from a revised 1.9 percent in November 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 2.1 percent.
This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 3.7 percent for California and 3.4 percent for the nation during the same period. An upcoming recession is likely to have a limited effect on the SF Bay Area’s housing market. It will only temper housing price appreciation but not reduce it. These solid economic fundamentals are integral to maintaining high rental property demand and ensuring a good return on investment.
San Francisco Rental Market
You may read about the growth of Portland and other Pacific Northwest cities as talent and businesses flee the expensive San Francisco real estate market. That’s hardly impacted the San Francisco housing market, though. However, San Francisco has several advantages over its Oregon rivals, and that’s the fact that you aren’t in Oregon. Oregon passed a state-wide rent control law in 2019. This is in addition to many city regulations regarding affordable housing. In Oregon, your ability to raise rents is limited by the state.
Making matters worse, there are many more renters than property owners, so they’ll tighten the allowable rental increases and continue to hamper owners until they’re losing money. And then there is California. You can find a variety of rent control laws in the San Francisco housing market because every city takes its approach to the problem. This means that you can find suburban San Francisco rental properties where you could raise rental rates to match the market. Furthermore, rent control laws typically don’t apply to newer single-family homes.
California, on the whole, is unfriendly to landlords. It is challenging to evict people. It can take a long time to evict someone who occasionally pays the rent. Taxes are high. What does this do to the San Francisco housing market? It leaves open the possibility that you could snap up San Francisco rental properties at a relative bargain price by people who just want to quit, whether they want to sell the properties or leave the state. For example, the laws governing the San Francisco real estate market allow you to buy San Francisco rental properties and evict the tenants to turn the units into condos for sale.
SF Rental Statistics
San Francisco holds the position of the priciest rental market. It is still #1 among the top 5 rental markets in the nation. The average rental income for traditional San Francisco investment properties is well above the national average. Like most of the Bay Area, the percentage of people renting in San Francisco is more than owners. San Francisco has around 56 percent of its residents living in rental homes.
If condo prices are going to drop or remain flat in 2021, people will see a good investment opportunity. They’ll be able to get in at a good price and there will be an increase in demand. If you’re in the market for a condo in San Francisco, that means you could get a great deal. According to several rent reports (discussed above), rental price declines have hit the bottom and are almost flat as compared to the previous month.
San Francisco's Geography & Zoning Restrictions Limits inventory
San Francisco real estate market is perpetually constrained in terms of inventory. Several factors contribute to this, but principally the strict zoning laws prevent new development and high-rise construction throughout the city. The strict zoning laws, coupled with the fact that the SF is only seven by seven miles, make it a very constrained market and keep supply perpetually low. San Francisco sits on a peninsula, surrounded on three sides by water.
They cannot build to meet housing demand. The surrounding cities are densely built up, as well. The only way the San Francisco real estate market could meet demand is by ripping out large swaths of two and three-story buildings to build condo towers, but that’s almost impossible given local regulations. The ability to build up is limited in the surrounding suburbs because of the mountains.
The San Francisco real estate market is, for better or for worse, beholden to several competing interest groups. For those with money that own their homes and have the most influence, “not in my backyard” or NIMBY means that voters fight any proposal to replace a 2 or 3 story warehouse with a 20 story apartment or condo building. They want to protect the look and feel of the community, through high-rise construction could start to relieve the overcrowding in the San Francisco real estate market.
The horrific stories of developers going through four years of red tape to build multi-family San Francisco rental properties deter others from even trying. Ironically, this creates significant returns for those who buy up San Francisco rental properties and can convert them to multi-family housing.
San Francisco's Environmental Movement
The environmentalist movement and California are intertwined in the public’s mind and for good reason. This is the best demonstration of its impact in Marin County. An estimated 85 percent of the county is off-limits to development. This doesn’t mean there are no homes here. It means that there are large estates that cannot be turned into tract homes. Neighbors fight any such project. This is why George Lucas had to threaten to build hundreds of homes on Skywalker Ranch when they wouldn’t let him expand his studios there. This also explains why the San Francisco real estate market cannot solve its affordable housing crisis by building in the relatively open lands in Marin County.
Warehouses and factories have been converted to lofts in large, established cities around the world. They offer open spaces, high ceilings, and proximity to public transit and downtown amenities. San Francisco is no exception to this trend. The difference is the growth in high-density San Francisco rental properties as can only be found in co-living spaces. These can be considered high-end dorms.
People may rent a bunk bed and storage space for their possessions, gaining access to laundry, kitchen, and workout facilities. Several people may share a bedroom that rivals a cramped college dorm room. These facilities are booming because they cater to the new college graduates already used to living this way and willing to continue to do so to work for Big Tech firms in San Francisco.
San Francisco's Luxury Real Estate Market is Booming Despite Pandemic
Dealing in the luxury real estate market has its benefits. More affluent buyers are the demographic least affected by any economic crisis such as brought up by the Covid-19 pandemic as they have the greatest financial resources. Although home prices soaring there is an influx of wealthy buyers. A relatively high percentage of the buyers in the city are all cash (Around 40 to 60 percent of them). Those that aren’t paying all cash are putting at least 20 percent down with the ability to close fast, even with a loan.
In June, house values in California city reached a record monthly high of $1.8 million. Deep-pocketed home buyers across San Francisco bolstered the market’s rebound and pushed up transactions and house prices, according to a report Monday from Compass. The number of luxury single-family homes—defined by the report as those priced at $3 million and above—that accepted an offer in June surpassed 30, the highest level the metric has reached in two years, data from the brokerage showed.
The increase helped push San Francisco house values to a record monthly high of $1.8 million in June, 3% higher than the previous peak of $1.75 million in June 2019. You will find first-time homebuyers who are buying over $2.5 million or baby boomers looking for second homes in the $2 million range. New units are being built in the San Francisco housing market. However, the reality is that the pool of people who can afford to buy is smaller and smaller and the supply of housing is not growing with demand. They mostly consist of luxury condos and mega-mansions built for the elite of the Big Tech workforce.
Another unintended side effect of regulations on San Francisco rental properties is that it incentivizes the construction of high-end units. Investors could invest in these projects or buy properties in the hopes that they are torn down and redeveloped. This is why burned-out husks can sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars and ones with demolition permits can sell for a million or more.
San Francisco's Real Estate Appreciation Rate is High
Thanks to all the factors discussed above, the entire bay area has one of the highest appreciation rates. A major reason San Francisco’s housing prices have climbed so high over the past decade is the city’s vibrant tech industry, which started booming in 2012 (thanks, in part, to a tax incentive aimed at attracting tech companies to the city over Silicon Valley). It now attracts a skilled workforce to the city while also driving up the demand for housing and the cost of living.
The data from NeighborhoodScout reveals that San Francisco real estate appreciated 91.99% over the last ten years, which is an average annual home appreciation rate of 6.74%. This figure puts San Francisco in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation. And within San Francisco, some individual neighborhoods’ home values have jumped by more than 100%, according to Trulia & Zillow. Here are the five San Francisco neighborhoods that have had the biggest jump.
- Bayview: Bayview had a $424,900 median home value in April 2009, which went to $1.07 million in Jan 2020. The current value is $1,004,025 (Zillow Home Value Index).
- The Forest Knolls: In April 2009, the neighborhood’s median home value was $811,800, and it topped $1.8 million in Aug 2018. The current value is $1,895,032, up 11% YTY.
- Bernal Heights: This neighborhood went from a median home value of $715,000 in April 2009 to $1.66 million in Aug 2018. The current value is $1,684,994, up 7.5% YTY.
- Mission: This East of The Castro neighborhood is in central San Francisco. The median home value was $699,900 in April 2009 and $1.53 million in Dec 2019. The current value is $1,420,188, up 1.8% YTY.
- Potrero Hill: This neighborhood lies in the East of the Mission District. It has a median home value of $734,200 in April 2009 and it topped $1.59 million in Sep 2020. The current value is $1,528,254, up 2.1% YTY.
The good news is that if you are a home buyer or real estate investor, San Francisco has a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the nation through the last ten years. So if you bought a home in San Francisco 10 years ago, it’s very likely you’d have profited on the deal by now — in fact, in several neighborhoods, you would have a good chance at doubling your money. All the variables that contribute to real estate appreciation continue to trend upwards which makes investing in SF real estate a sound decision.
Where To Invest In San Francisco Real Estate Market?
Are you looking to buy an investment property in the San Francisco real estate market? California has the 6th largest economy in the entire world. This is largely driven by its innovative production, the heavy tech sectors in the state, and more. The San Francisco market is expensive, but that doesn’t mean it is overpriced. There are opportunities, though they come with risks. If the city had better leadership and more people willing to allow redevelopment on a large scale, the city could blossom.
Good cash flow from San Francisco investment property means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding the best investment property in San Francisco in a growing neighborhood would be key to your success.
If you invest wisely in San Francisco real estate, you could secure your future. If you are a beginner in the business of cash flow real estate investing, it is very important to read good books on real estate. The less expensive the San Francisco investment property is, the lower your ongoing expenses will be.
When looking for the best real estate investments in San Francisco, you should focus on neighborhoods with relatively high population density and employment growth. Both of them translate into high demand for housing. San Francisco home prices are not only among the most expensive in the state of California but they are also some of the most expensive in all of the United States. According to Realtor.com, Dolores Heights has a median listing price of $2.5M, making it the most expensive neighborhood.
Some of the popular neighborhoods in and around San Francisco are South Beach, Pacific Heights, Mission District, Presidio Heights, Excelsior, St. Francis Wood, North Beach, West Portal, Outer Sunset, Hayes Valley, Portola, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Noe Valley, and Russian Hill.
According to Financialsamurai.com, the best neighborhood to buy property in San Francisco is Golden Gate Heights. This neighborhood has many homes with ocean view properties (under $1,000/Sq Ft), and some of the best schools in SF. Golden Gate Heights consists of mainly single-family homes instead of condos. As a result, the neighborhood is family-friendly and much less dense than other areas of San Francisco. The neighborhood is relatively inexpensive. At an average price per square foot of $850 – $980, Golden Gate Heights is an absolute steal compared to other neighborhoods in San Francisco.
Other best neighborhoods to buy investment properties in San Francisco are:
- Inner Parkside, Parkside
- Inner Sunset, Outer Sunset
- Inner Richmond, Outer Richmond
- Diamond Heights
All of these neighborhoods are safe, relatively inexpensive, and offer single-family homes for working-class people in the SF Bay Area. Single-family homes are defensive during downturns and tend to outperform during upturns.
Bernal Heights is considered an ideally located yet still moderately affordable place to raise a family. It’s on the south side of San Francisco, so it’s very easy to commute. The typical home value in Bernal Heights is $1,684,994. Bernal Heights home values have gone up 7.5% over the past year and this neighborhood will continue to rise in value.
Tenderloin is an affordable neighborhood for those who can afford to buy a home in the median price range of $679K, trending up 26% year-over-year. As of October 2021, the Tenderloin is a balanced real estate market, which means there is a healthy balance of buyers and sellers in the market. When housing supply meets housing demand, real estate investors should not miss the opportunity since entry prices of homes remain affordable.
Bayview is one of the most affordable neighborhoods, with a median listing price of $850K (on Realtor.com). Bayview saw an astounding 136% appreciation from 2000 to 2006, followed by a huge 50% drop from 2006 to 2010/2011. From 2012 onward the recovery has been consistent. The median listing home price in Bayview was $850K in October 2021, trending down -10.5% year-over-year. The median listing home price per square foot was $664. The median home sold price was $920K.
Stoneridge Park is a neighborhood in Pleasanton, California. It lies in Alameda County—one of the nine counties of the Bay Area region. According to Niche.com, it is a family-friendly neighborhood and one of the best places to live in California. Living in Stoneridge Park offers residents an urban-suburban mix feel and most residents own their homes. In Stoneridge Park, there are a lot of restaurants, coffee shops, and parks. The public schools in Stoneridge Park are highly rated (A+). The median home value is $911,000 and the median rent is $2,572.
Parkside receives an overall grade of A from Niche.com. It is a neighborhood in San Francisco County and is also considered one of California's best places to live. Living here offers residents an urban-suburban mix feel and most residents own their homes. The public schools in Parkside are highly rated. It is an expensive neighborhood with a typical home value of $1,631,675. Parkside home values have gone up 14.1% over the past year and they will continue to rise over the next twelve months.
Here are the top neighborhoods in San Francisco having the highest real estate appreciation rates since 2000—List by Neigborhoodscout.com.
- Pacific Ave / Divisadero St
- California St / Presidio Ave
- California St / Baker St
- Lake St / El Camino Del Mar
- Bay St / Laguna St
- Divisadero St / Lombard St
- Western Addition
- Laguna St / Union St
- Dolores St / 23rd St
- Fort Winfield Scott
California Real Estate Investment Markets
Apart from San Francisco, you can also invest in many other real estate markets in California. California's real estate market is the focus of many U.S. and foreign real estate investors.
Another market to buy rental properties in California is San Jose. San Jose is part of Silicon Valley, a place where $100,000 a year or higher salaries from competing for tech firms has driven up the cost of real estate. But what about the San Jose housing market itself? San Jose is the third-largest city in California, home to roughly a million people. It has the highest cost of living in any area in the U.S., and it is one of the most expensive housing markets in the country.
If you want to invest in the San Jose rental properties, you may not need to buy and renovate. Instead, if you know of industrial or commercial properties near major employers they may need to convert to employee housing, which you could buy now and hold until it sells. If that doesn’t happen, you could still turn it into a co-working space.
The San Diego real estate market offers an ideal mix of limited supply, high demand, and excellent income potential. If you’re going to invest in California, it needs to be in San Diego. The San Diego real estate market has been ranked among the ten most expensive real estate markets in the country, though it ranks below several other West Coast cities. This creates massive demand for San Diego rental properties by those who simply cannot afford to buy homes. The rental market will continue to grow as the city grows an estimated 500,000 by 2050, adding tens of thousands each year.
Another expensive market like San Francisco is LA. The numbers may not make sense for many investors but if you ask savvy investors based in LA they would like to bet anytime on this expensive real estate market. The Los Angeles real estate market has many points in its favor beyond its sheer size. The strong market fundamentals make the Los Angeles housing market a good place to invest if you’re looking at buying real estate in California.
Los Angeles has an unemployment rate of around 4%. What makes Los Angeles unique is the employment market. Want to work in Hollywood? Move to L.A. Want to work for a production company or in fashion? Come to L.A. If rent is too high, share an apartment or single-family home with friends. The Los Angeles housing market has seen a bump in residential construction. This has helped to satisfy some demand from renters. However, due to increasing demand, the new supply hasn’t brought prices down.
The Oakland real estate market is a cheaper version of the San Francisco real estate market with similar rental rates and a slightly friendly legal climate. It presents a good opportunity for real estate investors. The Oakland real estate market is second only to San Francisco in terms of rental rates. It is rivaling New York City, Boston, and San Francisco in terms of rental prices. One-bedroom apartments are averaging $2400 a month. Yet Oakland housing units remain two hundred to five hundred thousand dollars cheaper than San Francisco properties. This means you’ll see far better ROI on Oakland rental properties than San Francisco properties.
For most investors, buying or selling real estate is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.
NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in San Francisco.
Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of San Francisco turnkey investment properties in some of the best neighborhoods. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete San Francisco turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.
Please do not make any real estate or financial decisions based solely on the information found within this article. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third-party sites mentioned under references. Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. As a general policy, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no claims or assertions about the future housing market conditions across the US.
References:
Market Data, Reports & Forecasts
https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data
https://www.zillow.com/sanfrancisco-ca/home-values
https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-report-27712/
https://www.littlebighomes.com/real-estate-san-francisco.html
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/SanFrancisco_CA/overview
https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/san-francisco-home-prices-market-trends-news
San Franciso (City) Cooling-off
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/27/san-francisco-housing-suburbs-red-hot-but-city-still-in-demand.html
City details
http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/san-francisco-population
Best Neighborhoods
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/real-estate
https://www.helena7x7.com/san-francisco-neighborhood-appreciation-rates/
https://www.financialsamurai.com/best-san-francisco-neighborhoods-to-buy-property-for-price-appreciation
https://www.niche.com/places-to-live/search/best-neighborhoods-to-buy-a-house/m/san-francisco-metro-area/
Rental Market Statistics
https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/san-francisco/
https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-francisco-rent-trends/
https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/
https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/california-rent-control-law.html
https://homeguides.sfgate.com/tenants-rights-landlord-sells-house-53734.html
https://www.npr.org/2019/02/27/698509957/oregon-set-to-pass-the-first-statewide-rent-control-bill
Should You Invest in SF
https://realestate.usnews.com/places/california/san-francisco/jobs
https://sf.curbed.com/2020/3/11/21155283/buying-a-house-san-francisco-2020
https://reason.com/2018/02/21/san-francisco-man-has-spent-4-years-1-mi
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/21/us/san-francisco-children.html
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-marin-county-affordable-housing-20170107-story.html
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/04/blame-geography-for-high-housing-prices/478680
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/05/high-house-prices-san-francisco-tech-boom-inequality
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/14/bay-area-job-market-slowdown-experts-predict-google-apple-amazon-facebook
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/17/george-lucas-wants-to-build-affordable-housing-on-his-land-because-weve-got-enough-millionaires
Luxury market
https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/03/05/in-the-bay-area-million-dollar-homes-are-torn-down-to-start-fresh
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/863-carolina-street-potrero-hill-tear-down-listing-13844146.php
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/36691-la-demolishing-affordable-housing-building-luxury-housing-instead
