New Home Sales: Report, Charts, Forecast 2022-2023

New Home Sales Report Today 2022

New Home Sales, commonly referred to as “new residential sales,” is an economic indicator that tracks the sale of newly constructed residences. It is extensively watched by investors since it is seen as a lagging signal of real estate market demand and, thus, a factor influencing mortgage rates. Household income, unemployment, and interest rates are all variables that influence it.

The United States Census Bureau releases two versions of the New Home Sales metric: a seasonally adjusted figure and an unadjusted one. The adjusted value is shown as a yearly total, whereas the unadjusted figure is presented as a monthly total. These numbers are provided for several areas and the entire nation.

New home sales are completed when a sales contract or deposit is signed or accepted. In any stage of construction, the home might be: not yet started, in the process of being built, or fully finished. About 10% of the US housing market is made up of new house sales. Preliminary numbers for new single-family home sales are subject to major changes because they are mostly based on data from construction permits.

New Home Sales Report November 2022

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported new home sales unexpectedly increased in November, despite rising mortgage rates and house prices, which have severely damaged affordability. According to the Commerce Department, sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased for a second consecutive month in November, largely due to Americans taking advantage of a decline in mortgage rates and incentives from frantic builders.

New home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, jumped 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units last month. The revised sales rate for October was 605,000 units, down from the previously stated 632,000. New home sales surged in the Midwest and West but fell in the Northeast and the densely populated South.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, 62% of builders used incentives to entice buyers in December, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers, and offering price reductions. Single-family housing starts and building permits fell to a 2-1/2-year low in November, while previously owned home sales fell for the 10th straight month, the longest such streak since 1999.

According to Freddie Mac data, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassed 7% in October for the first time since 2002. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.27% this week after vaulting above 7% a few months ago, which was the highest since 2002. The rate, however, is more than double what it was this time a year ago, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

Mortgage rates will fall somewhat in December, and there will be a small burst of activity, but rates are expected to rise again in the new year. And don't expect rates to fall as quickly as they rose this year. The median new home price in November was $471,200, up 9.5% over the previous year. At the end of last month, there were 461,000 new homes on the market, down from 469,000 in October.

Houses under construction made up 62.9% of the inventory, with dwellings still to be built accounting for the remaining 23.2%. Completed houses made up 13.9% of the inventory, far less than the long-term average of 27%. At November's sales pace, it would take 8.6 months to clear the market supply, down from 9.3 months in October.

The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. This statistic provides an indication of the size of the for-sale inventory in relation to the number of houses currently being sold. The months' supply indicates how long the current for-sale inventory would last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built.

The Federal Reserve's vigorous campaign of monetary policy tightening to slow the economy and manage inflation was having some desired effects on the housing market. A total housing market crash is improbable, however, while home values remain elevated and there is a severe dearth of previously owned properties.

More New Home Sales Data & Forecast 2022 

In 2022, new-home sales are expected to plummet by 16%. Increased mortgage rates have forced many prospective purchasers to cancel contracts or postpone home purchases because they cannot afford the higher monthly payments. The increase in new-home inventories is assisting in slowing the price rise.

Privately owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000, which is 0.5% below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and 16.4% below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Single‐family housing starts last month were at a rate of 828,000, or 4.1% below the revised October figure of 863,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 584,000. Both single-family starts and permits hit the lowest nonseasonally adjusted level since January 2019. As we head into 2023, the data shows roughly 75% of builders intend to slow starts further unless there is a notable and consistent uptick in demand.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units permitted by building permits in November was 1,342,000, 11.2% lower than the revised October rate of 1,512,000 and 22.4% lower than the November 2021 estimate of 1,729,000. Last month's single-family authorizations were 781,000, or 7.1% lower than the revised October total of 841,000. Authorizations for units in structures with five or more units occurred at a pace of 509,000.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of house completions in November was 1,490,000, 10.8% higher than the revised October estimate of 1,345,000 and 6% higher than the November 2021 figure of 1,406,000. Last month, single-family home completions totaled 1,047,000, a 9.5% increase above the revised October rate of 956,000. The November rate for units in buildings of five or more units was 430,000.

New Home Sales Trend in 2022 [Previous Months]

New home sales in the United States rose by 7.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 632K in October of 2022, beating market forecasts of 570K sales and defying the recent drawdown in housing demand as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy. Sales rose sharply in the South (16% to 399K) and in the Northeast (+45.7% to 51K), more than offsetting the decline in the Midwest (-34.2% to 50K).

The median price of new houses sold was $493,000, while the average sales price was $544,000. There were 470,000 houses left to sell, up 21.4% from one year ago and corresponding to 8.9 months of supply at the current sales rate. New home sales in the United States fell 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 603K in September of 2022, after jumping by a downwardly revised 24.7% in August and compared with market forecasts of 585K.

Housing demand in the US has been sharply falling as the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates to combat the surge in inflation. Sales fell in the South (-20.2% to 356K) and the West (-0.7% to 135K) but rose in the Northeast (56% to 39K) and the Midwest (4.3% to 73K). The median sales price of new houses sold was $470,600, up 13.9% from a year ago and the average sales price was $517,700. There are 462,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 9.2 months of supply in inventory.

New home sales in the United States soared 28.8% from a month earlier to a 5-month high of 685K in August of 2022, and above market expectations of 500K. It was the biggest increase since June 2020 as sales rose in the Northeast (66.7%), the Midwest (16.7%), the South (29.4%), and the West (27.5%). The median sales price of new houses sold was $436,800, up 8% from a year ago, but the smallest increase since November 2020, and the average sales price was $521,800. There are 461,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 8.1 months of supply in inventory.

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States fell 12.6% month over month in July 2022, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 511K, the lowest figure since January 2016 and considerably below the forecast of 575K, due to increased borrowing rates, prices, and a drop in demand. New single-family home sales in the United States reached a 6-and-a-half-year low in July.

New home sales in the United States shrank 8.1% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in June of 2022, well below market expectations of 660,000. It is the lowest reading since April of 2020, as the housing market is cooling as rising mortgage and material costs hurt affordability. Sales fell in the West (-36.7%), the Northeast (-5.3%), and the South (-2%) but rose in the Midwest (42.3%).

The median sales price of new houses sold declined for a second month running to $402,400 but was still way above $374,700 a year earlier. The median sale price was $402,400, 7.4% higher than in June of 2021. There are 457,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 9.3 months of supply in inventory, compared to 8.4 months in May.

New home sales in the United States rose 10.7% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000 in May of 2022, above market expectations of 588,000. Sales rose in the West (39.3%) and in the South (12.8%) but declined in the Northeast (-51.1%) and in the Midwest (-18.3%).

Despite the rebound in May, elevated house prices and mortgage rates of nearly 6% are likely to continue to hit sales in the next months. Meanwhile, the median sales price of new houses sold last month was $449,000, up 15% from the previous year, and the average sales price was $511,400. There are now 7.7 months of supply in inventory, compared to 8.3 months in April.

New home sales data is published monthly by the US Bureau of Census. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Here is the regional breakdown for new home sales in the United States for the previous months. New Residential Sales data provides statistics on the sales of new privately-owned single-family residential structures in the United States.

Here's the region-wise tabular data for new home sales from October 2021 to 2022. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate. The data estimates only include new single-family residential structures. Sales of multi-family units are excluded from these statistics.

NORTHEAST: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont

MIDWEST: Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska North Dakota Wisconsin South Dakota Ohio

SOUTH: West Virginia, Virginia, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Mississippi, Maryland, Louisiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Delaware, District of Columbia, Arkansas

WEST: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming