Norada Real Estate Investments

The Housing Market in 2023: Trends and Insights

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The housing market is a complex and dynamic industry that is constantly evolving. While the future is unpredictable, current trends can provide insights into what we can expect in the housing market in 2023. In this article, we will discuss the key trends that are expected to shape the housing market in the coming years, along with the potential impact of each trend. The housing market is predicted to slow down further in 2023. For sellers, this could be terrible news, but for buyers, it's great.

Yet, there is still the problem of sky-high mortgage rates. The bright side is that if buyers hold off, the supply of homes will increase, putting further pressure on sellers to decrease prices. This would constitute a long-overdue course correction for the housing market. Mortgage rates are skyrocketing. Home sales are declining. Supply is improving. We are witnessing a sharp slowdown in the housing market due to higher mortgage rates.

Trend #1: Increasing Demand for Affordable Housing

The demand for affordable housing is one of the most pressing issues in the housing market. The rise in housing prices, combined with stagnant wages, has made it difficult for many individuals and families to find safe and secure housing. In 2023, it is expected that access to affordable housing will continue to be a challenge. Innovative solutions will be necessary to address this issue and provide affordable housing options for those in need.

Trend #2: Shift toward Suburban and Rural Areas

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many people to reevaluate their living arrangements, with larger homes and more space becoming increasingly important. This shift in priorities could result in a greater demand for housing in suburban and rural areas, leading to higher prices. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, especially as remote work becomes more prevalent.

Trend #3: Rising Home Prices

Despite the economic impact of the pandemic, housing prices have continued to rise due to limited supply and high demand. While this is good news for homeowners, it could make it more difficult for some individuals to enter the housing market. The trend towards rising home prices is expected to persist in 2023, particularly in urban areas where the supply is limited.

Trend #4: Stricter Mortgage Standards

As the economy recovers and interest rates rise, mortgage lenders may become more cautious about who they lend to. This could make it more difficult for some individuals to qualify for a mortgage and realize their dream of homeownership. Stricter mortgage standards are a potential barrier for those seeking to enter the housing market.

Trend #5: Increased Investment in Technology

The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of technology in the real estate industry, with virtual home tours and digital transactions becoming more common. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, with technological investments helping to streamline the home buying and selling process. The technology could also play a role in addressing the challenge of affordable housing, with innovations such as modular homes and 3D printing.

Hence, the housing market in 2023 will be shaped by economic, social, and technological factors. While predicting the future is never easy, understanding these trends can help individuals and policymakers make informed decisions about the housing market. It is important to address the challenge of affordable housing, as well as the potential barriers to homeownership such as rising home prices and stricter mortgage standards. Technological innovations are also likely to play a critical role in shaping the housing market in the coming years. By keeping these trends in mind, stakeholders can work towards creating a housing market that is equitable, accessible, and sustainable for all.

The Latest Housing Market Report for January 2023

The US housing market has been experiencing some interesting trends since January 2023. The National Association of Realtors® has released a report on US Housing Market Trends for January 2023. This report indicates that the market has fallen for the twelfth straight month in January, with mixed month-over-month sales in the four major US regions. The report also provides information on total existing-home sales, housing inventory, median existing-home prices, days on the market, first-time buyers, all-cash sales, distressed sales, and single-family and condo/co-op sales. We will explore these trends in more detail and discuss their implications.

Existing-Home Sales Decline for the Twelfth Straight Month

According to the report, existing-home sales have declined for the twelfth straight month in January. This decline was mixed among the four major US regions, with the South and West registering increases, while the East and Midwest experienced declines. All regions recorded year-over-year declines.

The report indicates that total existing-home sales fell 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022). This decline in sales could indicate that the US housing market is slowing down.

Housing Inventory Increases

The report shows that the total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). This increase in inventory may be good news for buyers who have been struggling to find homes due to low inventory levels. However, the unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022.

Median Existing-Home Prices Increase

The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $359,000, an increase of 1.3% from January 2022 ($354,300), as prices climbed in three out of four U.S. regions while falling in the West. This marks 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. This trend in median existing-home prices could indicate that the market is becoming more expensive.

Days on the Market Increase

Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days in January, up from 26 days in December and 19 days in January 2022. Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month. This increase in days on the market could indicate that sellers are having a harder time finding buyers.

First-Time Buyers Account for 31% of Sales

First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in January, identical to December but up from 27% in January 2022. This increase in first-time buyers could indicate that more people are becoming interested in buying homes. All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in January, up from 28% in December and 27% in January 2022. This trend in all-cash sales could indicate that investors or second-home buyers are becoming more interested in buying properties.

Single-Family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.59 million in January, down 0.8% from 3.62 million in December and 36.1% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $363,100 in January, up 0.7% from January 2022.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 units in January, unchanged from December but down 43.1% from the previous year. The median existing condo price was $320,000 in January, an annual increase of 5.2%.

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in January, identical to last month and one year ago. This trend in distressed sales could indicate that the market is stabilizing.

Regional Breakdown: How Existing-Home Sales Fared Across the US in January

Let's take a closer look at how existing-home sales fared in each region of the country in January.

Northeast:

Existing-home sales in the Northeast retracted 3.8% from December to an annual rate of 500,000 in January, down 35.9% from January 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $383,000, up 0.3% from the previous year. Despite the decline in sales, the median home price in the Northeast remained relatively steady, suggesting that there is still strong demand for homes in the region.

Midwest:

Existing-home sales in the Midwest slid 5.0% from the previous month to an annual rate of 960,000 in January, declining 33.3% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $252,300, up 2.7% from January 2022. The Midwest region has been hit hard by supply chain disruptions and rising material costs, which have caused many homebuilders to delay or cancel new construction projects. As a result, the inventory of homes for sale remains low, which is driving up home prices.

South:

Existing-home sales in the South rose 1.1% in January from December to an annual rate of 1.82 million, a 36.6% decrease from the prior year. The median price in the South was $332,500, an increase of 3.4% from one year ago. The South remains the most active region of the country in terms of existing-home sales, and the modest increase in sales in January suggests that demand for homes remains strong despite the challenges of the pandemic.

West:

Existing-home sales in the West elevated 2.9% in January to an annual rate of 720,000, down 42.4% from the previous year. The median price in the West was $525,200, down 4.6% from January 2022. The West region continues to be the most expensive region of the country in terms of home prices, but the decline in median home prices suggests that the market is becoming more affordable for buyers.

Housing Market Trends
Source: N.A.R.

New Home Sales Rise in January from December

new home sales trends
Source: The U.S. Census Bureau

The sales of newly constructed homes rose in January from December as mortgage rates eased off their highs of the past year. However, sales of new homes fell 19.4% from a year ago. The median price for a new home also dropped to $427,500 in January, down from $465,600 the previous month, and it was 0.7% lower than the $430,500 median price a year ago. In this blog post, we'll explore the US housing market trends for January 2023 in more detail.

According to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau, sales of newly constructed homes were up 7.2% in January from December. This is good news for the housing market, as it suggests that the market may be stabilizing. January's month-over-month gain was the same as an upwardly revised 7.2% jump in December from November.

Sales of new single-family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 last month, up from a revised 625,000 in December. However, sales were down from last year's estimated rate of 831,000. It was the strongest sales pace since March 2022.

Mortgage Rates Eased in January

Mortgage rates eased in January and ended the month nearly a point lower than they were at the beginning of November when they topped 7%. Rates have since pivoted and are trending up again on continuing inflation fears. This is something that potential homebuyers should be aware of when looking to purchase a home.

Home Prices Dropped from December

In a bit of good news for home buyers, prices of new homes dropped from December, and also fell from a year ago for the first time since August 2020. The median price for a new home dropped to $427,500 in January, down from $465,600 the previous month. And it was 0.7% lower than the $430,500 median price a year ago.

Benefits for Potential Homebuyers

The drop in new home sales prices in January is good news for potential homebuyers. This shows another crack in the housing market that should benefit potential homebuyers, especially when mortgage rates drop. The demand to buy is there, particularly when there is flexibility by builders on price. Price adjustments and builder incentives helped to push the sales pace in a positive direction. Motivated buyers are increasingly seeking new homes because there is limited resale inventory available.

New Construction Homes Stepping in to Fill the Gap

A low flow of new listings from existing homes left buyers wanting more inventory to choose from and new construction was able to step in and help fill the gap slightly. Many home builders are offering incentives to buyers, sweetening the deal just enough to bump sales from the month prior. The backlog of new construction homes continues to emerge into the market just in time for the spring shopping season. When those homes hit the market, especially over the next few months, we will see spring home buyers having more options and opportunities to break into homeownership.

In conclusion, the US housing market is showing signs of cooling off as existing-home sales dipped in January across most regions of the country. New home sales rose in January from December, as mortgage rates eased off their highs of the past year. Prices of new homes dropped from December, and also fell from a year ago for the first time since August 2020.

However, the market remains strong, with demand for homes remaining steady and home prices holding up despite the challenges of the pandemic. As we move forward into the new year, it will be interesting to see how the market continues to evolve and how regional differences in supply and demand will impact the overall market.

Even with rising mortgage rates and higher prices, the housing market cannot crash due to low supply and increasing demand as more millennials are projected to buy houses in the years to come. Now millennials make up the largest share of homebuyers in the US, according to a 2020 survey from the NAR. According to a new study by Realtor.com, buying is more cost-efficient than renting in a growing number of the largest cities in the country.

This is encouraging news for the millions of millennials who are approaching the peak homebuying age. Millennials are the largest generation in history, and they are already in their mid-thirties, approaching their prime home-buying years. They were delayed in purchasing a home, but are now back in full force. Thus, we have two, four, or five years of millennial homeownership.

Sources:

  • https://www.realtor.com/research/
  • https://www.zillow.com/home-values/
  • https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/todays-rates/
  • https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
  • https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/housing-affordability-index

Pending Home Sales Dropped for the Sixth Straight Month

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United States Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator of housing activity. It measures housing contract activity and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. When a seller accepts a sales contract on a property, it is recorded into a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a “pending home sale.” Most pending home sales become home sale transactions, typically one to two months later. The National Association of Realtors collects pending home sales data from MLSs and large brokers.

Contracts to purchase previously owned homes in the United States fell significantly more than anticipated in November, plunging for the sixth consecutive month. This is the latest indication of the severe impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are having on the housing market as the central bank attempts to curb inflation.

Key Highlights

  • Pending home sales decreased for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.0% from October.
  • Month-over-month, contract signings declined in all four major U.S. regions.
  • Pending sales fell in all regions compared to one year ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on signed contracts, decreased by 4% to 73.9 in November from the downwardly revised reading of 77.0 in October.  Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. The figure for November was the lowest since NAR established the index in 2001, with the exception of a brief decline in the early months of the pandemic.

“Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity.”

Also Read: United States Existing Home Sales Trends

Pending Home Sales
Infographic Source: NAR

Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown November 2022

Contracts declined in all four regions, led by a 7.9% drop in the Northeast. All four regions also recorded double-digit declines on a year-over-year basis, with contract signings in the West down by 45.7%, by far the largest regional drop. “The Midwest region — with relatively affordable home prices — has held up better, while the unaffordable West region suffered the largest decline in activity,” Yun said. The overall decline in signed contracts suggested that existing home sales would continue to fall after posting their 10th straight monthly decrease in November.

Pending Home Sales Trends in 2022

Here is the tabular data of pending home sales from November 2021 to November 2022. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Pending Home Sales Summary from June to October


Pending home sales in the US sank 8.6% MTM in June of 2022, after increasing 0.4% in May, and much more than market forecasts of a 1.5% drop, as escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers. Pending sales retreated in all four major regions: Midwest (-3.8%), Northeast (-6.7%), South (-8.9%), and West (-15.9%).

Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20%. According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now. "Home sales will be down by 13% in 2022 but should start to rise by early 2023", Yun added.

NAR released a summary of pending home sales data showing that July's pending home sales pace weakened by 1.0% last month and fell 19.9% from a year ago. The last time the index was that low was in April of 2020 during the pandemic, and the index was 71.6. Pending sales represent homes with a signed contract to purchase but which have yet to close. They tend to lead existing-home sales data by 1 to 2 months.

All four regions showed double-digit declines from a year ago. The West had the most significant dip of 30.1%, followed by the South with a drop in contract signings of 20%. The Northeast fell 15.4%, followed by the Midwest with the smallest decline of 13.4%.

Pending home sales fell 2% in August as the housing market continued its slowdown amid rising mortgage rates and inflation, the National Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday. The drop was more than the forecast 1.5% decline and brings sales down 24.2% from a year ago. All four regions showed double-digit declines from a year ago. The West had the most significant dip of 31.3%, followed by the South with a drop in contract signings of 24.2%. The Midwest fell 21.1%, followed by the Northeast with the smallest decline of 19.0%.

Pending Home Sales Index, dropped for the fourth consecutive month in September, down 10.2% compared to August and a whopping 31% compared to a year earlier. NAR’s report also showed that all four major regions of the U.S. saw a sharp pullback in home sales, with pending home sales down about 27% or more on a year-over-year basis in each region. The West saw the largest yearly contraction in pending home sales, down 38.7% annually. However, the Northeast posted the largest month-over-month drop in September, with pending home sales down 16.1% compared to August.

October’s pending home sales pace weakened by 4.6% last month and fell 37.0% from a year ago. All four regions showed double-digit declines from a year ago. The West had the largest dip of 46.2%, followed by the South with a drop in contract signings of 38.2%. The Midwest fell 32.1%, followed by the Northeast, with the smallest decline of 29.5%.

 

<<<Also Read: Will Housing Market Crash Again?>>>

Source:

  • https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
  • https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-slid-4-0-in-november
  • https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-waned-10-2-in-september

New Home Sales: Report, Charts, Forecast 2022-2023

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New Home Sales Report Today 2022

New Home Sales, commonly referred to as “new residential sales,” is an economic indicator that tracks the sale of newly constructed residences. It is extensively watched by investors since it is seen as a lagging signal of real estate market demand and, thus, a factor influencing mortgage rates. Household income, unemployment, and interest rates are all variables that influence it.

The United States Census Bureau releases two versions of the New Home Sales metric: a seasonally adjusted figure and an unadjusted one. The adjusted value is shown as a yearly total, whereas the unadjusted figure is presented as a monthly total. These numbers are provided for several areas and the entire nation.

New home sales are completed when a sales contract or deposit is signed or accepted. In any stage of construction, the home might be: not yet started, in the process of being built, or fully finished. About 10% of the US housing market is made up of new house sales. Preliminary numbers for new single-family home sales are subject to major changes because they are mostly based on data from construction permits.

New Home Sales Report November 2022

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported new home sales unexpectedly increased in November, despite rising mortgage rates and house prices, which have severely damaged affordability. According to the Commerce Department, sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased for a second consecutive month in November, largely due to Americans taking advantage of a decline in mortgage rates and incentives from frantic builders.

New home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, jumped 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units last month. The revised sales rate for October was 605,000 units, down from the previously stated 632,000. New home sales surged in the Midwest and West but fell in the Northeast and the densely populated South.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, 62% of builders used incentives to entice buyers in December, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers, and offering price reductions. Single-family housing starts and building permits fell to a 2-1/2-year low in November, while previously owned home sales fell for the 10th straight month, the longest such streak since 1999.

According to Freddie Mac data, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassed 7% in October for the first time since 2002. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.27% this week after vaulting above 7% a few months ago, which was the highest since 2002. The rate, however, is more than double what it was this time a year ago, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

Mortgage rates will fall somewhat in December, and there will be a small burst of activity, but rates are expected to rise again in the new year. And don't expect rates to fall as quickly as they rose this year. The median new home price in November was $471,200, up 9.5% over the previous year. At the end of last month, there were 461,000 new homes on the market, down from 469,000 in October.

Houses under construction made up 62.9% of the inventory, with dwellings still to be built accounting for the remaining 23.2%. Completed houses made up 13.9% of the inventory, far less than the long-term average of 27%. At November's sales pace, it would take 8.6 months to clear the market supply, down from 9.3 months in October.

The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. This statistic provides an indication of the size of the for-sale inventory in relation to the number of houses currently being sold. The months' supply indicates how long the current for-sale inventory would last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built.

The Federal Reserve's vigorous campaign of monetary policy tightening to slow the economy and manage inflation was having some desired effects on the housing market. A total housing market crash is improbable, however, while home values remain elevated and there is a severe dearth of previously owned properties.

new home sales
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

More New Home Sales Data & Forecast 2022 

In 2022, new-home sales are expected to plummet by 16%. Increased mortgage rates have forced many prospective purchasers to cancel contracts or postpone home purchases because they cannot afford the higher monthly payments. The increase in new-home inventories is assisting in slowing the price rise.

Privately owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000, which is 0.5% below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and 16.4% below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Single‐family housing starts last month were at a rate of 828,000, or 4.1% below the revised October figure of 863,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 584,000. Both single-family starts and permits hit the lowest nonseasonally adjusted level since January 2019. As we head into 2023, the data shows roughly 75% of builders intend to slow starts further unless there is a notable and consistent uptick in demand.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units permitted by building permits in November was 1,342,000, 11.2% lower than the revised October rate of 1,512,000 and 22.4% lower than the November 2021 estimate of 1,729,000. Last month's single-family authorizations were 781,000, or 7.1% lower than the revised October total of 841,000. Authorizations for units in structures with five or more units occurred at a pace of 509,000.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of house completions in November was 1,490,000, 10.8% higher than the revised October estimate of 1,345,000 and 6% higher than the November 2021 figure of 1,406,000. Last month, single-family home completions totaled 1,047,000, a 9.5% increase above the revised October rate of 956,000. The November rate for units in buildings of five or more units was 430,000.

New Home Sales Trend in 2022 [Previous Months]

New home sales in the United States rose by 7.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 632K in October of 2022, beating market forecasts of 570K sales and defying the recent drawdown in housing demand as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy. Sales rose sharply in the South (16% to 399K) and in the Northeast (+45.7% to 51K), more than offsetting the decline in the Midwest (-34.2% to 50K).

The median price of new houses sold was $493,000, while the average sales price was $544,000. There were 470,000 houses left to sell, up 21.4% from one year ago and corresponding to 8.9 months of supply at the current sales rate. New home sales in the United States fell 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 603K in September of 2022, after jumping by a downwardly revised 24.7% in August and compared with market forecasts of 585K.

Housing demand in the US has been sharply falling as the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates to combat the surge in inflation. Sales fell in the South (-20.2% to 356K) and the West (-0.7% to 135K) but rose in the Northeast (56% to 39K) and the Midwest (4.3% to 73K). The median sales price of new houses sold was $470,600, up 13.9% from a year ago and the average sales price was $517,700. There are 462,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 9.2 months of supply in inventory.

New home sales in the United States soared 28.8% from a month earlier to a 5-month high of 685K in August of 2022, and above market expectations of 500K. It was the biggest increase since June 2020 as sales rose in the Northeast (66.7%), the Midwest (16.7%), the South (29.4%), and the West (27.5%). The median sales price of new houses sold was $436,800, up 8% from a year ago, but the smallest increase since November 2020, and the average sales price was $521,800. There are 461,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 8.1 months of supply in inventory.

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States fell 12.6% month over month in July 2022, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 511K, the lowest figure since January 2016 and considerably below the forecast of 575K, due to increased borrowing rates, prices, and a drop in demand. New single-family home sales in the United States reached a 6-and-a-half-year low in July.

New home sales in the United States shrank 8.1% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in June of 2022, well below market expectations of 660,000. It is the lowest reading since April of 2020, as the housing market is cooling as rising mortgage and material costs hurt affordability. Sales fell in the West (-36.7%), the Northeast (-5.3%), and the South (-2%) but rose in the Midwest (42.3%).

The median sales price of new houses sold declined for a second month running to $402,400 but was still way above $374,700 a year earlier. The median sale price was $402,400, 7.4% higher than in June of 2021. There are 457,000 houses to sell, corresponding to 9.3 months of supply in inventory, compared to 8.4 months in May.

New home sales in the United States rose 10.7% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000 in May of 2022, above market expectations of 588,000. Sales rose in the West (39.3%) and in the South (12.8%) but declined in the Northeast (-51.1%) and in the Midwest (-18.3%).

Despite the rebound in May, elevated house prices and mortgage rates of nearly 6% are likely to continue to hit sales in the next months. Meanwhile, the median sales price of new houses sold last month was $449,000, up 15% from the previous year, and the average sales price was $511,400. There are now 7.7 months of supply in inventory, compared to 8.3 months in April.

New home sales data is published monthly by the US Bureau of Census. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Here is the regional breakdown for new home sales in the United States for the previous months. New Residential Sales data provides statistics on the sales of new privately-owned single-family residential structures in the United States.

Here's the region-wise tabular data for new home sales from October 2021 to 2022. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate. The data estimates only include new single-family residential structures. Sales of multi-family units are excluded from these statistics.

NORTHEAST: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont

MIDWEST: Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska North Dakota Wisconsin South Dakota Ohio

SOUTH: West Virginia, Virginia, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Mississippi, Maryland, Louisiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Delaware, District of Columbia, Arkansas

WEST: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

Sources

  • https://www.census.gov/
  • https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  • https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/new-home-sales

U.S. Housing Market Intelligence Report (April 2010)

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Categories are graded from A thru F:

Economic Growth:  D+
Spending remains high and income improved, but the unemployment level remains very high. Overall economic growth improved slightly this month, and the results for our economic growth metrics were generally positive. The revised fourth quarter GDP growth rate increased to 5.6%. The pace of job losses eased this month, and the number of mass layoff events is plummeting, but employment has still declined 1.7% year over year.

The unemployment rate was flat this month at 9.7%, but the broader measure of unemployment, the U-6, increased to 16.9%. The length of unemployment in the labor force increased to 31.2 weeks this month, reaching a record high level since the BLS began tracking the statistic in 1948. Personal income improved and has returned to positive year-over-year growth for the second time since December 2008, increasing by 2.0%. The CPI (all items) increased to 2.3% from one year ago, while the Core CPI (minus food and energy) dropped to 1.1%.

Leading Indicators:  C+

Overall leading indicators held relatively steady this month, but several individual metrics actually improved. The Leading Economic Index has increased for the past eleven consecutive months. The ECRI Leading Index – an indicator of future U.S. growth – increased 13.9% year-over-year, and has experienced positive year-over-year growth for the past 10 months. Stocks improved once again in March, and all four major indices have now experienced large positive year-over-year growth, ranging from +43% to +57%.

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U.S. Housing Market Intelligence Report (March 2010)

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Categories are graded from A thru F:

Economic Growth: D+
Overall economic growth was about the same this month compared to last, and the results for our economic growth metrics were mixed. The revised fourth quarter GDP growth rate increased to 5.9% from the preliminary estimate of 5.7%. Much of the growth was still the result of recent government stimulus and an increase in inventories. The pace of job losses also eased this month, although in the last 12 months the U.S. has lost 3.24 million jobs, which is equal to a decline of 2.5% of the total payroll workforce. The unemployment rate remained flat this month at 9.7%, while the broader measure of unemployment, the U-6, increased to 16.8%. The length of unemployment in the labor force declined slightly to just under 30 weeks this month, yet remains the second highest month on record since the BLS began tracking the statistic in 1948. Personal income improved in January and has returned to positive year-over-year growth for the first time since December 2008, increasing by 1.1%. The CPI (all items) decreased to 2.6% from one year ago, while the Core CPI (minus food and energy) also dropped to 1.6%.

Leading Indicators: C
Overall leading indicators held relatively steady this month, but several individual metrics actually improved. The Leading Economic Index 6-month growth rate declined in January to 9.8% from 12.2% last month, and remains very high compared to history. The ECRI Leading Index – an indicator of future U.S. growth – increased in January to its highest level since May 2008. The index increased 21.5% year-over-year, and has experienced positive year-over-year growth for the past 8 months. Stocks improved in February after declining in January, and all four major indices have now experienced large positive year-over-year growth, ranging from +46% to +62%. The S&P Homebuilding Index also improved this month. The spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury fell in January, declining to 160 bps after peaking at nearly 270 bps in March. Since the 10-year treasury is seen as a risk-free investment, the spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury displays the perceived risk of investing in corporate bonds, which has declined recently as Wall Street has become less worried about businesses failing. According to the 4th quarter CEO Confidence Index, CEOs are now much more confident about the economy. Despite the increase, the outlook index remains lower than earlier this decade. Business credit availability remains very poor, but deteriorated at a slower rate in the first quarter of 2010.

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