The prevailing sentiment among experts leans towards a probable increase in mortgage rates for the upcoming week, driven by factors such as inflationary pressures and market dynamics. However, amidst the projections, a diverse range of opinions highlights the inherent unpredictability of financial markets, reminding investors and homebuyers alike to remain vigilant and adaptable in their approach.
Mortgage Rate Predictions Next Week
Let's take a closer look at what the experts have to say about the trajectory of mortgage rates for the period spanning April 11 to April 17, 2024.
- Will Go up: 64%
- Will Stay the same: 14%
- Will Go down: 21%
The consensus among experts suggests a likely increase in mortgage rates over the coming week. According to a poll conducted by Bankrate, a significant 64 percent of respondents foresee a rise in rates, while only 21 percent anticipate a decline, with the remaining 14 percent predicting rates to remain steady.
Chief Economist at Facts and Opinions Economics in New York, Robert Brusca, emphasizes the likelihood of rates moving higher, echoing sentiments shared by other experts. Similarly, Heather Devoto, Vice President at First Home Mortgage, projects an upward trajectory for rates, attributing it to the reassessment of summer rate cuts by traders.
Derek Egeberg, Branch Manager at Guild Mortgage, points to the undeniable impact of economic data, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current spending patterns and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
Ken H. Johnson, Real Estate Economist at Florida Atlantic University, underscores the role of inflation in driving mortgage rates, anticipating a rise in long-term rates in the week ahead.
Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate.com, draws attention to the concerning inflation numbers, signaling a shift in bond yields and mortgage rates, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting strategy.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Finance at Middle Tennessee State University, emphasizes the prevailing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve action amidst signs of economic slowdown.
Contrary to the majority, a notable 21 percent of experts anticipate a decline in mortgage rates. Among them, Michael Becker, Branch Manager at Sierra Pacific Mortgage, attributes this projection to a potential break or rally following a period of rate spikes.
Dan Green, CEO of Homebuyer.com, and Joel Naroff, President and Chief Economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, align in their prediction of lower mortgage rates, citing trends and market dynamics.
Lastly, a minority of 14 percent foresee unchanged mortgage rates. According to Mitch Ohlbaum, Mortgage Banker at Macoy Capital Partners, the persistence of inflation and employment trends suggests stability in rates until mid-June.
As we await the unfolding events of the week ahead, it's essential to keep a keen eye on economic indicators and policy developments, ensuring informed decision-making in the dynamic landscape of real estate and finance.
Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next Month (April 2024)
Recent Trends
The past week witnessed a notable surge in mortgage interest rates after two consecutive weeks of declines. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) climbed from 6.74% on March 14 to 6.87% on March 21. This uptick comes as the spring homebuying season gains momentum, fueled by an increase in existing home inventory and a rise in new home construction.
Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, attributes this surge to a combination of factors, including pent-up demand, supply shortages, and expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year.
Forecast for Next Month
As April approaches, the focus shifts to forecasting where mortgage rates might head next. Insights from industry experts provide valuable perspectives:
- Craig Berry, Acopia Home Loans: Predicts that rates will moderate in April, citing conflicting signals from February's job reports and wage increases, which are unlikely to spur significant economic movement.
- Molly Boesel, CoreLogic: Anticipates a moderation in rates, driven by a slowing of inflation and indications that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle may be coming to an end. Boesel suggests that as Federal Reserve rate cuts are factored into long-term rates, mortgage rates could gradually decline.
- Mark Fleming, First American: Foresees sideways movement in mortgage rates for April, as he believes it's improbable for the Federal Reserve to adjust its benchmark rate during March. Fleming suggests that any shifts in mortgage rates will likely hinge on changes in the 10-year Treasury yield over the month.
- Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company: Expects rates to remain relatively stable, hovering just above or below the 7% mark. Sharga notes that while slight dips in rates are possible with favorable reports on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth aligning with Federal Reserve objectives, significant drops into the low 6% range may not occur until the Fed initiates rate cuts later in the year.
Looking Ahead
Beyond April, predictions for mortgage rates extend into the coming months. With inflation showing signs of cooling and the Federal Reserve adjusting its policies accordingly, there's cautious optimism among experts that mortgage interest rates may gradually descend in 2024.
As of March 21, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at 6.87%, according to Freddie Mac. Looking further ahead, projections for the second quarter of 2024 suggest a potential dip in rates. While forecasts vary slightly among major housing authorities, there's consensus that rates may finish below the current average, with predictions ranging from 6.3% to 6.6%.
Housing Authority | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q2 2024) |
Fannie Mae | 6.30% |
National Association of Home Builders | 6.39% |
Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.60% |
National Association of Realtors | 6.60% |
Wells Fargo | 6.60% |
Average Prediction | 6.50% |
Current Mortgage Interest Rate Trends
The average 30-year fixed rate increased from 6.74% on March 14 to 6.87% on March 21. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate also rose from 6.16% to 6.21%.
Month | Average 30-Year Fixed Rate |
February 2023 | 6.26% |
March 2023 | 6.54% |
April 2023 | 6.34% |
May 2023 | 6.43% |
June 2023 | 6.71% |
July 2023 | 6.84% |
August 2023 | 7.07% |
September 2023 | 7.20% |
October 2023 | 7.62% |
November 2023 | 7.44% |
December 2023 | 6.82% |
January 2024 | 6.64% |
February 2024 | 6.78% |
Sources:
- https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/rate-trends/
- https://themortgagereports.com/32667/mortgage-rates-forecast-fha-va-usda-conventional
- http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page
- https://www.blackknightinc.com/category/press-releases
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm