Norada Real Estate Investments

National Economic Outlook (September 2013)

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The rate of annual job growth in August, 1.7 percent, was basically the same as in previous months. We had better get used to the idea that this is the new normal, because there probably won't be much help from the lagging government and construction sectors.

Budget difficulties will prevent any meaningful increase in government spending, even though local and state revenues are now in better shape. The recession revealed the extent of unfunded pension liabilities for public employees, which will absorb any extra dollars.

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National Economic Outlook (August 2013)

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The pace of job growth in July was unchanged from the 1.7 percent annual rate of previous months, but the details suggest an economy that will do modestly better for the rest of the year. Most importantly, jobs in business services were up 3.5 percent from last year.

Business services is one of the largest sectors of the economy, on a par with health care and government, and bigger than retail or manufacturing. Earlier this year it was growing at a 3 percent rate, in the last few months around 3.5 percent; it seems only a small increase but it means that businesses are expanding again.

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National Economic Outlook (June 2013)

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The economic recession only lasted a year, but there wasn't a recovery for homes because prices had climbed much too high and builders had built way too many of them. Prices had to fall, not just back to a “normal” level, but to an even lower level so that the large inventory of excess homes could be moved – a sort of clearance sale. We're not yet done with that sale – see the large number of mortgages still delinquent – but enough has been cleared out so that prices can drift up to a more normal level.

 

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The U.S. Real Estate Market is Back! [infographic]

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As we all know, America's housing market has been in a slump for many years.  Years of negative news made home buyers and real estate investors nervous about the future of the U.S. housing market.  However, the following infographic should bring optimism back to most people.

This infographic reports the opinions of real estate professionals, and their predictions look extremely promising!  Most feel positive about the direction the economy and the real estate market is headed.  If the trend continues, which it is expected to do, then this would be a great time to be investing in real estate.

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National Economic Outlook (March 2013)

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The budget shenanigans in Washington so far haven't had an effect on the recovery, but an extended period of lower government spending and job cuts will quickly lead to economic stagnation.

The economy is a self-reinforcing mechanism, a small dip in growth will be followed by further declines, even if the first dip was meant to be temporary. With jobs growing at a very modest rate, it won't take much to bring growth to a halt.

Aside from the very real possibility of a government-induced slowdown, the economy is doing well – in the modern sense that it's growing modestly. The number of jobs in February was 1.5 percent higher than last year, a small improvement over recent months, and unemployment fell to 7.7 percent. As usual, the heavy lifting was done by the health care sector – jobs up 2.1 percent – and business services, where jobs increased 2.8 percent. Government jobs were essentially flat, and retail jobs were up 1.8 percent.

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National Economic Outlook (February 2013)

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Home construction rarely matches the actual demand for new homes, which can change quickly – there's often too much or too little. Because the US population grows one percent per year about 1.5 million new homes are needed every year. During the boom of the mid-2000s, two million homes were built per year; at the bottom of the bust, that number was 600,000.

In 2012, construction was up to 800,000 homes. This is a clear indicator that demand is even higher and will continue higher for years. Home prices will be rising even when more construction takes place. The economic effect is self-reinforcing because most of the cost of building a new home is in the wages paid to the workers, who in turn can afford a better home for themselves or spend money on cars and other stuff.

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National Economic Outlook (December 2012)

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It's becoming clear to me that what we've been thinking of as a stage in the recovery actually is the recovery. Job growth at a 1.5 percent annual rate is well below our hopes from previous cycles but its getting hard to imagine faster growth unless the government starts spending more money (ha-ha) or consumers like their finances enough to start clamoring for new homes.

In November, jobs increased by 1.4 percent from last year and unemployment eased to 7.7 percent, basically no change from what we've seen the last six months. Jobs were up 1.4 percent in manufacturing, 1.5 percent in retail trade, 3 percent in business services, 2.2 percent in health care, and 2.7 percent at restaurants. Jobs in government and construction were flat.

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National Economic Outlook (October 2012)

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Unemployment in September fell to 7.8% (according to government stats) but otherwise the economic situation was pretty much as it has been for the last six months: improving but at a slow rate.  Employment was up 1.4% over last year, with health care and business services providing the bulk of new jobs, as usual.

Some interesting developments: jobs in car manufacture were up 7% as car sales increase 9%; jobs in truck transport were up 4%, signaling that companies are confident enough to increase inventories; the hemorrhaging of teaching jobs has finally stopped; restaurant jobs were up 3%; and jobs in real estate and construction edged upward after years of contraction.

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Real Estate Market Report

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After nine consecutive months of appreciation, August was the first month where home values decreased by 0.1% to $152,100, according to Zillow.

2012 has seen a turnaround in the housing market with sustained appreciation that, at times, has been very strong.  As we progress through the latter half of this year, we expect home values to see more volatility characterized by months of home value declines mixed with months of appreciation.

Overall, the positive trend will hold as evidenced by home values being up by 1.7% in August 2012 on a year-over-year basis.  Rents continued to rise in August, appreciating by 0.2% from July to August.  On an annual basis, rents across the nation are up by 5.9%, indicating that demand, fueled by elevated foreclosure levels, is still outpacing investor-driven increases in rental property supply.

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Norada Real Estate Investments 30251 Golden Lantern, Suite E-261 Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

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