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National Economic Outlook (September 2012)

September 10, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Let's do the jobs math. In August, as in the preceding months, the number of jobs was 1.4 percent higher than last year. We're probably stuck at this growth rate which translates to 1.8 million new jobs per year.

Unemployment is at 8 percent but it rarely gets below 5 percent, so the “excess” unemployment is about 4 million. At 1.8 million per year it would take just a couple of years to put those 4 million back to work, but new people enter the workforce every day so it will probably take twice as long.

What will accelerate the recovery is construction, which has been below replacement levels as we coped with an excess 4 million homes built during the boom. We've almost absorbed that excess and there will soon be unmet demand in many local markets; home prices have bottomed out in half of the 315 markets we cover. Other construction will also increase as state and local governments spend on delayed infrastructure projects.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

National Economic Outlook (July 2012)

July 16, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Why has this economic recovery been so sluggish? In a normal recovery, job growth would be accelerating at this point, rather than dragging along at the same modest level month after month.

One culprit, off course, is the housing boom that left many homeowners with more debt than their home is worth. Another is the federal government that bailed out the big banks feeding the boom and had no money left to encourage job creation. And a third culprit is local governments that added a million jobs during the property-tax boom rather than banking the money and have now had to shed 500,000 of them.

In short, its the boom, stupid!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

National Economic Outlook (June 2012)

June 4, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

The Wall Street Journal this week said, Grim Job Report Sinks Markets. The bold headline suggests an economy in retreat. After all, it's an election year. But the May job numbers look like more of the same moderate growth we've been getting in recent months.

Overall, jobs were up 1.4 percent in the past year, right in line with the growth rates of previous months. Manufacturing jobs were up 2 percent, including an 8 percent increase in cars. Retail jobs were up just 1 percent but, significantly, jobs at furniture stores were up 2.4 percent. Jobs at restaurants and bars were up 3 percent. Conclusion: consumers are buying big-ticket items and are treating themselves to small luxuries, important signs of optimism.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

Could This Be the Best Real Estate Market in 5 Years?

April 23, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

I've spoken many times on my radio show about how fear is used to move us. Well, recently I spotted a great example. Just last week I wrote about how a mortgage “expert” was predicting a “death spiral” in the housing market. That was last week. This week, the National Association of Realtors is saying that the housing market in 2012 will be the strongest in five years. February was actually a 9.2 percent increase in home sales from last year.

For most people those two things wouldn't compute, especially since the “expert” I quoted last week was predicting a 6 percent reduction in housing prices in 2012. This just all goes to show you something I've said for a long time: don't believe the doom and gloom.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Appreciating Markets, Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, US economy

The Asset Class of Single-Family Real Estate

December 28, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

If there’s one thing that Morgan Stanley would like to advise to you, it’s to take a look at single-family homes and consider it as part of your real estate investing strategy.

That’s right, these properties have become hot among real estate investors recently considering the shift in the US property market from home ownership to rentals (or as Morgan Stanley puts it, a “renter-heavy society”). It’s exactly the new real estate paradigm!  Even Bank of America and the Federal Housing Finance Agency have sought measures to reduce the impact of mortgage delinquency by working on an REO rental program for its underwater borrowers.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

The New Rental Real Estate Paradigm

December 15, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

Morgan Stanley Research released its latest real estate report, Housing 2.0: The New Rental Paradigm to provide market insights to investors. It’s interesting to know that the research team observes how more Americans have become renters instead of homeowners, attributing to different factors in the economy.

The report states:

Across the country, more Americans are becoming home renters, and fewer Americans are becoming homeowners. The beginning of the rentership society is upon us. But all renters are not equal – of the roughly 40MM rental housing units in the country (representing roughly $6 trillion in asset value), about half are multi-family and half are single- family.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

National Economic Outlook (December 2011)

December 8, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

Although the overall health of the economy is of interest to everyone, if you're a banker you particularly want to know when people will start borrowing money again.

Very roughly speaking, banks typically hold equal amounts of commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, home mortgages, consumer loans, government securities, and cash. With commercial, mortgage, and consumer lending sharply lower in the last few years, banks now hold more government securities and a lot more cash, both of which don't produce much income.

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Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

The US Appetite for Debt

November 29, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

So far, I’ve never heard the same commotion in the market and the media unlike earlier this year when the US economy earned an embarrassing downgrade.

Perhaps, with all the Thanksgiving Holiday frenzy and the Black Friday storm that took place, almost everyone doesn’t care a whit about the surging US debt and is just looking forward to inflate personal spending. Well, that isn’t the case in Washington though. Democrats and Republicans are currently at a stalemate as to the best way to reduce the US debt, which now tops the $15 trillion mark from its $5.6 trillion level in 2000 according to usdebtclock.org.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Real Estate Investments Tagged With: interest rates, US Debt, US economy

What Can Foreign Investors Teach Us About Our Own Country?

November 7, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

You’ve seen the headlines. The combination of lower prices, increased rents and a weak dollar are drawing investor capital from all around the globe and funneling it into American housing.  According to NAR, foreign investment is US real estate has increased by 20% in the 12 months ending march 2011, totaling $82 billion in just one year. What’s missing in most of these stories is why.

Why are overseas real estate investors, who are standing thousands of miles away with little if any personal experience in US real estate, pouncing on this opportunity? Low prices and great exchange rates don’t explain it. If you hear of a stock that has plummeted, would you buy it based on that fact alone? Or would you want to understand the fundamentals of the company behind the stock. What do they produce? Who are their customers? Why should you believe this investment will pay off, as opposed to seeing the new low price as an accurate reflection of the value of the company? In other words, if it’s a piece of junk, you wouldn’t care how cheap it is.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Appreciation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Markets, US economy

2012 Housing Market Forecast

October 25, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

The question most real estate investors often ask is, “Where do I invest now?”

As always, there are local housing markets around the country where homes are affordable, the underlying economy is strong, and appreciation is imminent.  These are markets you should consider for your next long-term real estate investment.

Norada Real Estate Investments tracks the economic conditions and real estate trends of nearly 400 markets across the country.  Because of the dynamic nature of real estate market conditions, we continually monitor and rank the top markets to make it easier for you, as an investor, to concentrate on the areas that will give you the greatest opportunity for success.

While you might be inclined to look for bargains in areas that have seen the largest price corrections in the past, watch out – there is no guarantee that home prices in areas of high speculation will ever rebound to boom levels.

Unlike the stock market, local real estate markets usually move in slow, predictable cycles. Appreciation is not luck or magic. It correlates closely with economic development and population growth in a local market.

If you missed out on Phoenix, Vegas and Florida (or if you rode those waves and know what it's about), download the current issue of our free report.

Download your free copy of the 2012 Housing Market Forecast Today!

Filed Under: Economy, Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Appreciation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Markets, US economy

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