US Home Prices Rose By 6.9% in December 2022
CoreLogic, a data and analytics company, released its CoreLogic HPI report on February 7, 2023, with analysis through December 2022 with forecasts through December 2023. The report is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.9% in December 2022 compared with December 2021.
On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.4% in December 2022 compared with November 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.2% from December 2022 to January 2023 and on a year-over-year basis by 3% from December 2022 to December 2023.
Only Nine States Put Up Double-Digit Gains in December
The effect of rising mortgage rates on housing demand in the United States became evident in December 2022, as the annual home price growth dipped to 6.9%, down from a series high of 20% appreciation in April. The latest US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index showed that only nine states had double-digit year-over-year price increases in December, compared to 48 states in April.
Despite a low national unemployment rate of 3.5% in December, layoffs may be impacting housing demand in expensive metropolitan areas, particularly those heavily dependent on the tech industry. San Francisco and Seattle posted significant home price deceleration in November. Although the pandemic-induced migration to suburban, exurban, and rural areas may be slowing down as the workforce gradually returns to offices, Idaho was the only state to register an annual home price loss in December (-1%).
Some exurban regions that became increasingly popular during the COVID-19 pandemic saw prices jump and affordability erode at the time, but these areas are now seeing major corrections. And while price deceleration will likely persist into the spring of 2023, when the market will probably see some year-over-year declines, the recent decrease in mortgage rates has stimulated buyer demand and could result in a more optimistic homebuying season than many expected.”
– Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic
Nationally, home prices increased 6.9% year over year in December. Idaho was the only state to post an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (15.3%), Vermont (13.5%), and South Carolina (12.2%).
These large cities continued to experience price increases in November, with Miami again on top at 19.5% year over year.
Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Salem, OR is at very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Bellingham, WA; Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL and Olympia-Tumwater, WA are also at very high risk for price declines.
US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Growth Rate Cools Further in November, Up by 7.7%
The housing market conditions in the US worsened at the end of 2022, as home price growth declined rapidly. The increase in mortgage rates from 3% to 7% wiped out about 30% of homebuyers' purchasing power, leading to a decline in demand and a drop in new listings on the market, causing inventory to reach an all-time low.
However, the fall in mortgage rates in December brought renewed optimism among buyers, which could lead to a busier spring homebuying season in 2023 if rates continue to trend lower. According to the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index, home prices posted a 7.7% YoY increase in November 2022, marking the seventh straight month of declining annual home price gains.
The index also indicated that home prices are expected to decline further in 2023, with regional declines expected in metro areas that saw significant price growth during the pandemic, such as Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 10- and 20-city composite indexes also showed a decline in November, with the 10-city composite index now 38% higher compared to its 2006 peak and the 20-city composite up by 46%.
Miami had the strongest annual home price growth among 20 tracked markets for the 4th consecutive month, with an 18.4% increase in November, although it was down from October's 21% growth. Tampa, Florida ranked second with a 16.9% year-over-year growth in November, declining from 20.5% in October.
Other cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, and Dallas also posted double-digit annual increases in November. San Francisco posted its first annual decline since the onset of the pandemic, with a 1.6% decrease in November. All 20 metros saw decelerating annual gains in November with Tampa and Phoenix posting the largest monthly price drops.
Compared with annual gains recorded last November, all metros posted weaker price gains, averaging a 12-percentage-point slower rate of appreciation. Phoenix showed the largest decline in home price growth compared with November 2021, cooling by 26 percentage points. Seattle followed, with a 22-percentage point decrease.
All pricing levels show diminishing price growth. November saw 8% low-tier growth, 6.4% middle-tier growth, and 7.2% high-tier growth. Compared to the spring 2022 peak, annual gains in the upper tier fell by 3.1 percentage points, while low-tier growth surged again. Demand for more costly properties exceeded the low-tier price rise from November 2021 to July 2022.
At this juncture, investors, owner-occupied buyers, and a persistently low inventory of homes for sale may be pressuring the low tier's price slowdown. At the end of 2022, CoreLogic data showed that investors of all sizes bought around 100,000 houses per month, while new listings slowed dramatically. Monthly price tier and location appreciation comparisons show demand fluctuations across the nation.
Most pricing groups in all metros saw monthly advances fall from October to November, except for New York's low tier, which rose marginally. Compared to epidemic boomtowns like Phoenix, Northeast and Midwest locations that fared worse are witnessing renewed buyer desire and home price resilience.
The pandemic hit New York hard, and the bottom tier's relative strength may be a rebound impact from 2021's lower pricing. Though unseasonally adjusted, low-tier housing prices fell 1% monthly. Average high-tier and middle-tier prices fell 1% month over month.
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory, and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk, and related performance information.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing, and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ is based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate.