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Current Housing Market Trends in 2023

September 22, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Trends

Current Housing Market Trends

The real estate housing market is a complex and dynamic industry that is constantly evolving. While the future is unpredictable, current trends can provide insights into what we can expect in the housing market. The housing market is expected to be a balanced market in 2023, but the answer to the question “Is it a buyers or sellers market?” will vary depending on the location.

Current Housing Market Trends in 2023

Buyers may have more leverage in negotiations in 2023, but the market is still competitive in many areas. The housing market has been cooling down in 2023, but it's still too early to say whether it will be a buyers or sellers market. Some areas are becoming more buyer-friendly and others remain seller-friendly.

Here are some factors that are contributing to this shift in the housing market to become more buyer-friendly:

  • Rising interest rates: Mortgage rates have been rising steadily since the beginning of the year, making it more expensive for buyers to finance a home. This is expected to slow down demand and give buyers more leverage in negotiations.
  • Rising inflation: Inflation is also on the rise, which is making it more expensive for everyone to live, including homeowners. This could lead to some sellers being more willing to sell their homes at a lower price.
  • Increasing inventory: The supply of homes for sale is slowly starting to increase, which is also giving buyers more options.

In this article, we will discuss the key trends that are expected to shape the housing market in the coming years, along with the potential impact of each trend.  The cooling of the housing market could be terrible news for sellers, but for buyers, it's great. Yet there is still the problem of sky-high mortgage rates.

The bright side is that if buyers hold off, the supply of homes will increase, putting further pressure on sellers to decrease prices. This would constitute a long-overdue course correction for the housing market. Mortgage rates are skyrocketing. Home sales are declining. Supply is improving. We are witnessing a sharp slowdown in the housing market due to higher mortgage rates.

Housing Market Trend #1: Increasing Demand for Affordable Housing

The demand for affordable housing is one of the most pressing issues in the housing market. The rise in housing prices, combined with stagnant wages, has made it difficult for many individuals and families to find safe and secure housing. In 2023, it is expected that access to affordable housing will continue to be a challenge. Innovative solutions will be necessary to address this issue and provide affordable housing options for those in need.

Housing Market Trend #2: Shift toward Suburban and Rural Areas

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many people to reevaluate their living arrangements, with larger homes and more space becoming increasingly important. This shift in priorities could result in a greater demand for housing in suburban and rural areas, leading to higher prices. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, especially as remote work becomes more prevalent.

Housing Market Trend #3: Rising Home Prices

Despite the economic impact of the pandemic, housing prices have continued to rise due to limited supply and high demand. While this is good news for homeowners, it could make it more difficult for some individuals to enter the housing market. The trend toward rising home prices is expected to persist in 2023, particularly in urban areas where the supply is limited.

Housing Market Trend #4: Stricter Mortgage Standards

As the economy recovers and interest rates rise, mortgage lenders may become more cautious about who they lend to. This could make it more difficult for some individuals to qualify for a mortgage and realize their dream of homeownership. Stricter mortgage standards are a potential barrier for those seeking to enter the housing market.

Trend #5: Increased Investment in Technology

The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of technology in the real estate industry, with virtual home tours and digital transactions becoming more common. This trend is expected to continue in 2023, with technological investments helping to streamline the home buying and selling process. Technology could also play a role in addressing the challenge of affordable housing, with innovations such as modular homes and 3D printing.

Hence, the housing market in 2023 will be shaped by economic, social, and technological factors. While predicting the future is never easy, understanding these trends can help individuals and policymakers make informed decisions about the housing market. It is important to address the challenge of affordable housing, as well as the potential barriers to homeownership such as rising home prices and stricter mortgage standards. Technological innovations are also likely to play a critical role in shaping the housing market in the coming years. By keeping these trends in mind, stakeholders can work towards creating a housing market that is equitable, accessible, and sustainable for all.

US Housing Market Trends in August 2023

The real estate market in August witnessed a 0.7% decline in existing home sales, portraying a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million. This analysis delves into the critical aspects of this decrease and its implications for the real estate landscape.

Key Highlights

Here are the key highlights from the August report by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR):

  • Sales Downturn: Existing-home sales experienced a 0.7% decline in August, resulting in a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million. Additionally, sales showed a significant year-over-year drop of 15.3% compared to August 2022.
  • Median Price Increase: The median sales price for existing-homes rose by 3.9% from the previous year, reaching $407,100. This marks the third consecutive month where the median sales price has surpassed the $400,000 threshold.
  • Inventory Status: The inventory of unsold existing homes witnessed a 0.9% decrease from the previous month, resulting in 1.1 million units available at the end of August. This corresponds to a 3.3 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.

Regional Variations

Regional disparities were evident in August's existing-home sales:

  • Midwest: Sales improved by 1.0% compared to the previous month but decreased by 16.4% from the prior year.
  • Northeast: Sales remained unchanged from July but witnessed a substantial year-over-year decline of 22.6%.
  • South: Sales decreased by 1.1% from July, resulting in a 12.4% drop from one year ago.
  • West: Existing-home sales in the West slumped by 2.6% from the previous month and declined by 15.7% from the prior year.

Market Insights and Analysis

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun remarked on the stability of home sales over the past few months, highlighting the role of mortgage rate fluctuations and job gains in influencing short and long-term market trends. Despite the sales downturn, home prices continued to rise, underscoring the urgent need to augment housing supply to moderate these price gains.

Market Participants and Trends

Insights into market participants and trends for August:

  • First-Time Buyers: First-time buyers constituted 29% of the sales in August, marking a slight decrease from July. This percentage remained identical to the figures from August 2022.
  • All-Cash Sales: All-cash transactions accounted for 27% of the total transactions in August, indicating a rise from both July and August 2022.
  • Distressed Sales: Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained consistent at 1% of total sales in August, unchanged from the previous month and the previous year.

Mortgage Rate Trends

As of September 14, Freddie Mac reported a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 7.18%, showcasing a notable increase from the prior week and a substantial rise from one year ago.

The real estate market in August continued to grapple with a sales downturn, highlighting the need for strategic interventions to bolster market activity. Efforts to stabilize mortgage rates and stimulate job growth can potentially provide the necessary impetus for a more robust market performance in the coming months.

More on Regional Housing Market Trends

The existing-home sales data for August provides a comprehensive view of the real estate market across different regions in the United States. Here's a breakdown of the housing market performance in the four major regions:

Northeast

In August, existing-home sales in the Northeast were reported at an annual rate of 480,000, remaining unchanged from July but displaying a significant decline of 22.6% compared to August 2022. Despite this decline in sales, the median home price in the Northeast increased by 5.8% from one year ago, reaching $465,700.

Midwest

Contrary to the trend in the Northeast, the Midwest witnessed a 1.0% increase in existing-home sales from the previous month, resulting in an annual rate of 970,000 in August. However, when compared to the previous year, there was a notable decline of 16.4% in sales. Despite this, the median home price in the Midwest showed resilience, experiencing a 6.8% increase from August 2022, reaching $305,300.

South

Existing-home sales in the South saw a slight decline of 1.1% from July, resulting in an annual rate of 1.84 million in August. This represents a 12.4% decrease in sales from one year ago. In contrast to the sales decline, the median home price in the South increased by 3.2% compared to August 2022, reaching $366,100.

West

The Western region experienced a 2.6% decline in existing-home sales from the previous month, reporting an annual rate of 750,000 in August. When compared to the prior year, there was a significant decline of 15.7% in sales. Despite this sales downturn, the median home price in the West exhibited a modest increase of 1.0% from August 2022, reaching $609,300.

These regional variations in both sales and median home prices shed light on the diverse dynamics of the housing market in different parts of the country. Understanding these trends is crucial for both homebuyers and sellers to make informed decisions in their respective real estate transactions.

Real Estate Housing Market Trends
Source: N.A.R.

New Home Sales Trends: A Comprehensive Analysis

According to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau, in July, new home sales surged, surpassing expectations and achieving a 17-month high. This rise is attributed to buyers turning towards new construction due to the severely limited supply of existing homes. Sales of newly constructed homes increased by 4.4% in July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000, up from a revised rate of 684,000 in June. Compared to the previous year, sales saw an impressive increase of 31.5%.

Market Dynamics and Affordability Concerns

While the new construction market benefits from the scarcity of inventory, concerns about affordability persist. Homeowners with existing mortgage rates of 3% or 4% are hesitant to sell and purchase a new home at significantly higher rates. Mortgage rates recently exceeded 7% and are not anticipated to decrease in the near future.

Regional Variations and Market Fluctuations

New home sales in July exhibited regional disparities, reflecting local price and inventory fluctuations. Sales in the Midwest surged by an impressive 47.4% from the previous month, while the West experienced a notable increase of 21.5% from June. In contrast, sales in the Northeast declined by 2.9% from the previous month and dropped by 6.3% in the South.

Pricing Trends

The pricing dynamics in the new home market are notable. While prices of existing home sales are on the rise, with the price for a single-family home at $412,300 in July (up 1.6% from a year ago according to the National Association of Realtors), the median price of new homes sold in July witnessed a decrease of 8.6%, reaching $436,700 from $478,200 a year ago.

Inventory and Supply

Inventory and supply are critical aspects influencing the new home market. At the end of July, there were 437,000 new homes available for sale, equivalent to about 7.3 months of supply at the current sales rate, according to the Census Bureau report. Although this is less than half of the available inventory of existing homes in July (about 1.1 million), new home inventory has been gradually increasing in recent months. However, it still remains 4.8% below last year's level.

Benefits for Homebuyers in 2023's Housing Market

There are a few potential benefits for homebuyers in the current real estate housing market:

  • More choices: While the supply of homes on the market is still relatively low, it has increased slightly in recent months. This means that potential homebuyers may have more options to choose from when looking for a home. The number of new homes available on the market also increased in February, which means that potential homebuyers have more options to choose from.
  • Slower price growth: Although home prices are still rising, the pace of growth has slowed down in some areas. This could make it easier for homebuyers to afford a home in certain markets.
  • Easier negotiations: In a slower housing market, sellers may be more willing to negotiate on the price of their home or other terms of the sale. This could give homebuyers more bargaining power and help them get a better deal on a home.
  • Lower prices: While the median price of a new home rose slightly from a year ago, the increased inventory could lead to greater competition among sellers, potentially driving down prices.
  • Leading indicator: New home sales are considered a leading indicator for the housing market, meaning that an increase in new home sales could signal a positive trend for the housing market overall. This could be good news for potential homebuyers who may be hesitant to enter the market during a downturn.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2023 in the US housing market, key trends and factors will shape the real estate landscape. These include the influence of interest and mortgage rates on buyer demand, the persistent challenge of limited housing inventory, steady growth in home prices, and concerns over affordability for potential buyers.

Generational shifts and the impact of remote work will also shape housing preferences, while government policies and regional variations will contribute to market dynamics. Overall, staying informed and adaptable will be crucial for navigating the evolving housing landscape in the coming months.

One key factor to watch is the potential impact of policy considerations, such as a temporary reduction in capital gains tax on investment property sales. If implemented, this measure could stimulate the market by increasing housing inventory, sales, and overall economic growth. Policymakers will need to carefully evaluate and balance the potential benefits of such measures against any unintended consequences.

Addressing the challenges of housing inventory and supply levels will be critical moving forward. Collaborative efforts among policymakers, industry professionals, and stakeholders will be necessary to find sustainable solutions. Encouraging an increase in housing inventory will help meet the demand from prospective buyers and potentially stabilize prices.

Localized data and insights will continue to be essential for making informed decisions. Consulting with local associations of REALTORS® and utilizing data from local multiple listing services (MLS) can provide accurate and detailed information specific to particular areas. This will help individuals and businesses navigate market conditions effectively and make strategic choices.

Monitoring forthcoming releases of key indicators, such as the Pending Home Sales Index and Existing-Home Sales data, will offer valuable insights into the evolving trends and dynamics of the real estate market. Staying informed and adaptable to changing conditions will be crucial for making well-informed decisions and seizing opportunities in this dynamic landscape.

While challenges persist, the real estate market also presents opportunities for growth and investment. With careful analysis of market conditions, consideration of policy measures, and collaboration among industry stakeholders, the real estate sector can strive toward a more balanced and sustainable future in the latter half of 2023.


Sources:

  • https://www.realtor.com/research/
  • https://www.zillow.com/home-values/
  • https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/todays-rates/
  • https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/
  • https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/housing-affordability-index

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: home sales, Housing Market Trends, Housing Prices, housing sales, Real Estate Housing Market, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Prices, US Housing Market, US Real Estate Market

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: Housing Market Predictions 2023

September 11, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Predictions

Housing Market Predictions 2023

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

In this blog post, we'll be discussing what experts are forecasting for the United States housing market in 2023. Will house prices go down in 2023? There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the housing market in the United States will likely vary depending on location and other factors. However, some experts believe that the market will decline in 2023, while others believe that home prices will rise.

Most experts in the housing industry predict less buyer demand, lower prices, and higher borrowing rates. Rate increases, along with a shortage of availability, have pushed many purchasers to the sidelines. Home prices may fall slightly, but not drastically as they did in 2008. Some believe that the housing market will continue to outperform compared to the pre-pandemic.

The housing market is always in flux, and predictions for the future can be challenging to make. However, experts are making some educated guesses about what we can expect in the coming years. Here's a look at some housing market predictions for 2023. According to a Forbes Advisor article, home prices are expected to continue to come down slowly, making it difficult for many homebuyers to access affordable housing.

ALSO READ: Lastest National Housing Market Trends

However, the article notes that there may be some relief for buyers in the form of more inventory becoming available on the market. This may help to level out the playing field, making it easier for more people to find a home that they can afford. Another prediction from US News & World Report is that the housing market will experience a relatively shallow recession that stops and starts in 2023.

This prediction assumes that inflation will be under control by 2024, allowing mortgage rates to remain stable. In this scenario, home prices are expected to rise, but at a slower pace than they have been in recent years. Zillow also has some predictions for the housing market in 2023. One of the most positive is that housing affordability is expected to improve slightly. While high monthly mortgage costs and low inventory will continue to be a challenge, there are signs that conditions may stabilize.

This could be good news for first-time homebuyers, who have been struggling to find affordable homes in recent years. Another Zillow prediction is that home prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace. This could be due to a number of factors, including higher interest rates, more inventory becoming available on the market, and a slowdown in the rate of job growth. While this may make it more difficult for some buyers to afford a home, it could also make it easier for others to find a property that fits their budget.

Finally, some experts predict that the housing market will continue to be shaped by changing demographics. For example, as baby boomers continue to retire, they may be more likely to downsize their homes, creating more opportunities for younger buyers to enter the market. Additionally, millennials are expected to continue to be a driving force in the housing market, with many of them reaching their peak homebuying years in the coming years.

Of course, these predictions are just that – predictions. The housing market can be unpredictable, and unforeseen factors can always come into play. However, these educated guesses can give us a general idea of what we can expect in the coming years. If you're planning to buy or sell a home in 2023, it may be helpful to keep these predictions in mind as you make your plans.

Zillow, the leading online real estate company, released its latest home value and sales forecast in August 2023. As the housing market experiences dynamic shifts, Zillow's predictions offer valuable perspectives on what lies ahead.

Home Value Appreciation in 2023

Zillow's forecast projects a noteworthy 5.8% appreciation in home values throughout 2023. Despite the ongoing presence of elevated mortgage rates, the limited availability of homes for sale is a driving factor behind the upward trajectory of home prices. This continuous trend demonstrates the resilience and strength of the real estate market in the face of challenges.

Inventory Constraints and Price Pressures

The prevailing shortage of homes available for purchase is contributing to the persistent rise in home prices. Even as mortgage rates maintain their higher levels, the tight inventory conditions exert substantial pressure on the housing market. Zillow's forecast, revised this month, predicts that the national Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) will conclude 2023 with a 5.8% increase from its starting point. This revision is an upward adjustment from the previous month's estimate of 5.5% growth.

Projected Growth from July 2023 to July 2024

Looking ahead, Zillow anticipates a continued ascent in typical home values. The forecast estimates a rise of 6.5% from July 2023 to July 2024. This projection underscores the resilience of the housing market and its potential for sustained growth, even in the face of complex economic factors.

Impact on Sales Volume

The scarcity of available homes for sale has led to increased competition among buyers. In July 2023, the number of listed homes was just over half of what it was in the same month of 2019. Additionally, 29% fewer new listings entered the market in July compared to the pre-pandemic norm. This scarcity has resulted in homes under contract going pending in a mere 12 days – a notable difference from the 2018 and 2019 averages.

The combination of tight inventory conditions and elevated mortgage rates is expected to continue influencing sales volume in the foreseeable future. Zillow's projection for 2023 foresees 4.2 million home sales, reflecting a 17% decline from the previous year. While this decline may raise concerns, it aligns with historical patterns and speaks to the broader economic landscape.

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Drop Most by July 2024

Some regional markets are projected to see home price declines. In their latest forecast, they now predict that home values will fall only in 19 of the nation's 894 regional housing markets between July 2023 and July 2024. Houma, a city located in southern Louisiana, tops the list with an expected decline of 2.9% in home prices by July 2024.

Metro Area Change in Values
Houma, LA -2.9%
McComb, MS -2.8%
Hobbs, NM -2.6%
Morgan City, LA -2.5%
Big Spring, TX -2.4%

Top 5 Metros Where House Prices Will Increase Most by July 2024 

Zillow still predicts that the vast majority of regional housing markets will see home values appreciating in 2023. Among the 894 regional housing markets Zillow economists analyzed, 874 markets are predicted to see rising house prices over the next twelve months ending with July 2024. One market, El Dorado, AR, is predicted to remain flat for home price growth. The housing market in Atchison, KS is forecasted to see the highest year-over-year house price growth of 16.5%.

Metro Area Change in Values
Atchison, KS +16.5%
Rio Grande City, TX +16.3%
Parsons, KS +15.7%
West Plains, MO +13.8%
Jackson, WY +13.1%

Fannie Mae, a leading source of mortgage financing in the United States, has released its latest housing market forecast. The forecast provides insights into the anticipated trends and expectations for home sales, housing starts, and mortgage originations.

Home Sales Forecast:

Fannie Mae's overall home sales forecast remains relatively stable, with a slight revision in the numbers. The projected total sales for 2023 have been revised upward to 4.86 million units, compared to the previous estimate of 4.84 million units. This revision suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook for home sales in the current year. However, for 2024, there has been a slight downward revision to 5.01 million units, previously estimated at 5.03 million units.

Housing Starts Forecast:

The forecast for housing starts, which refers to the number of new residential construction projects initiated, has seen an upward revision. This revision is mainly attributed to a more positive outlook for near-term single-family housing starts. While the adjustment is modest, it indicates a favorable trend in new construction activity.

Mortgage Originations Outlook:

Fannie Mae's purchase mortgage originations outlook has experienced a modest upward revision, aligning with the revision in home sales. This adjustment reflects the expectation of increased mortgage originations in line with the projected growth in home sales. However, the positive revision in purchase mortgage originations has been offset by a downward revision in refinance originations. As a result, the overall impact on total originations for 2023 is minimal, with the projected volume remaining at $1.65 trillion, unchanged from the previous forecast of $1.66 trillion.

Looking ahead to 2024, Fannie Mae anticipates a further increase in total originations, with a projected volume of $2.03 trillion. This figure represents a slight upward revision from the previous estimate of $2.02 trillion. The revised outlook for mortgage originations in 2024 suggests continued growth in the housing market and mortgage financing activities.

In conclusion, Fannie Mae's housing market forecast indicates a relatively stable outlook for home sales, housing starts, and mortgage originations. While there have been slight revisions to the numbers, the overall trends point towards a resilient housing market with modest growth expectations. As the market evolves, it will be essential to closely monitor these projections to make informed decisions in the real estate and mortgage sectors.

Summary of Experts' Forecasts for the Housing Market in 2023

Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of The Chief Economist at CoreLogic: Real estate activity and consumer mood regarding the housing market plummeted after the recent increase in mortgage rates above 7%. In October, home price increases remained close to single digits, and this trend is expected to persist through the rest of the year and into 2023.

Some housing areas have experienced major recalibration since the spring price high and are projected to incur losses in 2023. Nonetheless, more deteriorating inventory, some relief in mortgage rate rises, and reasonably optimistic economic data may help eventually stabilize home values.

The top economist at Realtor.com, Danielle Hale: In 2023, the housing market could feel more like a buyer's market than a seller's market after being in a sellers' market for several years. While the 22.8% increase in listings should be good news for buyers, it's mostly due to homes taking longer to sell due to tighter affordability. In 2023, the national annual median price for homes for sale is projected to rise by another 5.4%, which is less than half the pace seen in 2022.

Even if a homeowner decides to sell their home, they will likely have a lot of equity in it. However, as buyers and sellers pull back from a housing market and economy in transition, we anticipate house sales to be significantly lower, down 14.1% compared to 2022. The rate of home sales in late 2022 is a good indicator of what the annual total for 2023 would look like.

Chief economist and senior vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun: In 2023 and beyond, the real estate market in Atlanta will be the one to watch as 4.78 million existing homes are sold at stable prices. The median home price will rise to $385,800, an increase of only 0.3% from this year's level ($384,500), while home sales will fall 6.8% compared to 2022's level (5.13 million).

There's a chance that half of the country may witness price increases, while the other half will see price drops. Nonetheless, the markets in California may be an outlier, with San Francisco perhaps seeing price decreases of 10-15%. Following a 7% increase in 2022, rents will go up by 5% in 2023. In 2023, the foreclosure rate will be lower than ever before, accounting for less than one percent of all mortgages.

This is less than half the average historical rate of 2.5%, therefore the 1.3% GDP growth will be a significant slowdown. As the Fed lowers the pace of rate hikes in an effort to contain inflation, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 5.7% in late 2022 from its peak of over 7% at the time. This is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of 8%.

Taylor Marr, Associate Chief Economist at Redfin: Mortgage rates are expected to fall further in the new year as a result of taming inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease rate hikes in the next year, which will boost demand for house purchases. But demand is still well below its high, so it's too early to declare a comeback or even a recovery.

We are keeping an eye on the job market for signs of sustained deceleration in price growth. Higher salaries and consequent price increases are one effect of a robust labor market like the one we're experiencing right now. A small increase in unemployment and/or slower economic growth would definitely help bring down mortgage rates even further, which seems paradoxical. If this trend continues into 2023, the boost in demand seen thus far may be reflected in a rise in pending sales.

Senior economist at Zillow, Jeff Tucker: The softening of the rental market has not yet resulted in any significant respite for tenants. There is hope, though, that prices will decrease in the coming months. Rent increases have slowed from a record 17.2% in February to 8.4% in November. Data like this is encouraging for renters hoping to sign a new lease in 2023, but they should still keep a careful eye on the market and move swiftly if they locate a rental that meets their needs and budget.

Since rental rates are still higher than they were before the outbreak, compromise and adaptability will be required well into next year. Tenants with leases coming up for renewal should realize that they have greater leverage to negotiate this year and should look around at comparable rentals in the area before making a decision. Which forecast mentioned above do you think is more accurate?

Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: What Do Market Trends Predict?

Here's when home prices can drop. While this may appear to be oversimplified, it is how markets work. Prices drop when demand is met. There is now an excessive demand for houses in several property markets, and there simply aren't enough homes to sell to prospective purchasers. Home construction has increased in recent years, although they are still far behind. Thus, big drops in housing prices would necessitate considerable drops in buyer demand.

Demand falls mostly as a result of higher interest rates or a general weakening of the economy. Rising interest rates would ultimately need far less demand and far more housing supply than we now have. Even if price growth slows this year, a drastic fall in home prices is quite unlikely. As a result, there will be no fall in house values; rather, a pullback, which is natural for any asset class. According to many experts, in the United States, house price growth is forecasted to “moderate” or maybe slightly drop in 2023.

What's happening in the housing market right now? According to recent weekly data from Realtor.com, mortgage rates, home prices, and available inventory are key considerations for homebuyers when making purchase decisions. Unfortunately, none of these elements tilts in favor of buyers in today’s market.

Meanwhile, sellers are also grappling with similar factors, especially those who must secure a new home before selling their current one, as they may encounter difficulties in finding suitable options and managing the costs to afford them. However, as we approach the fall season, a time typically favored by homebuyers, a slimmer of optimism emerges.

Optimistic Trends Ahead

If the current trend of a narrowing gap in inventory persists, it will be very likely to see more newly listed homes available than the record low set last fall and winter. In addition, given seasonality and recent momentum in the housing market, we do not expect to see a new peak price surpassing the June 2022 high of $449,000.

Furthermore, the likelihood for the Fed to take another “wait-and-see” strategy in its September FOMC meeting remains high, which may help potentially mitigate the recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates. Another key point for both buyers and sellers to keep in mind is that national trends may or may not match what’s happening in your market at your price point.

Key Findings

  • The median listing price grew by 1.1% over last year. Median listing prices rose on an annual basis for the fourth week in a row, marking a noteworthy rebound following a period of decline in June and July.
  • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 5.7% from one year ago. For 59 weeks, there have been fewer newly listed homes compared to the same time one year ago. However, this gap has been shrinking as we start to compare against low new listings in the latter months of 2022. This week’s data shows a 2.4 percentage point improvement over last week.
  • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year-ago levels by 7.2%. This past week marked the 9th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however, the gap narrowed slightly compared to the previous week’s -8.6% figure.
  • Homes spent 4 extra days on the market compared to this time last year. For more than a year (57 weeks in a row), the time a typical home has been on the market is up compared to the same time one year ago, but the gap has been generally declining this year.
Housing Market Predictions for 2023
Source: Realtor.com

June 2023 Housing Market Analysis and Forecast

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report offers an extensive view of the Home Price Index (HPI) product with analysis up to June 2023 and forecasts up to June 2024.

Current Home Price Trends

Steady Growth Year Over Year

In June 2023, home prices across the nation, encompassing distressed sales, exhibited a year-over-year increase of 1.6% compared to the same period in 2022. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.5% surge in home prices in June 2023 in comparison to May 2023. It's important to note that these figures incorporate revised data from public records, ensuring the accuracy of the analysis.

Forecasted Price Trends

Projected Upward Trajectory

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast indicates an anticipated month-over-month rise of 0.6% in home prices from June 2023 to July 2023. Additionally, a year-over-year increase of 4.3% is projected from June 2023 to June 2024, suggesting a positive outlook for the housing market.

Analyst Insights

Rebounding from a Low

Despite an annual home price growth of 1.6% in June, which remains near an 11-year low, there are signs of a potential turnaround. The slight increase from May indicates that the market might be stabilizing. CoreLogic experts anticipate a pickup in year-over-year home price appreciation throughout the remainder of 2023, possibly reaching 7% by early 2024.

Ten states, including the District of Columbia, witnessed declines in annual home prices in June. Particularly in the Northwest, where housing supply is limited, prices are expected to stay elevated due to persistent buyer-seller imbalances.

Regional Variation

Market Diversity Across States

The CoreLogic HPI provides comprehensive insights by segmenting markets based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type, and distressed sales. Nationally, a 1.6% year-over-year home price increase was observed in June.

States such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Washington, D.C. reported annual declines in home prices. Conversely, New Jersey (6.9%) and New Hampshire and Vermont (both 6.4%) recorded the highest year-over-year increases.

Metropolitan Area Analysis

Exploring Urban Home Price Changes

An in-depth look at large metropolitan areas reveals diverse trends in home price changes. Miami stood out with an impressive 8.9% year-over-year gain in June, indicating the dynamic nature of the urban housing market.

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

Assessing Vulnerability in Housing Markets

The housing market is a dynamic ecosystem influenced by various factors, and understanding potential risks is essential for both investors and homeowners. The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) provides valuable insights into the health of housing markets across the United States. This monthly update assesses the probability of home price declines over the next 12 months, guiding stakeholders in making informed decisions.

Identifying High-Risk Markets

The MRI's analysis has identified several markets that are at a very high risk of experiencing a decline in home prices, with a probability exceeding 70%. These markets are:

  • Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL: This region faces a significant likelihood of home price declines in the upcoming year. The MRI's assessment points to factors that might contribute to this risk, such as supply-demand imbalances, economic fluctuations, and other local dynamics.
  • North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: Situated in Florida, this market also falls within the very high-risk category for potential home price declines. External influences like economic trends and market saturation could be influencing this risk assessment.
  • Provo-Orem, UT: Despite being located in Utah, a state known for its economic stability, Provo-Orem faces a very high risk of home price declines. Local economic conditions and demographic changes could be playing a role in this assessment.
  • Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA: This Washington state market is also marked as very high risk for potential home price declines. Factors like job market trends and housing supply may be contributing to this risk assessment.
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL: The housing market in this Florida region is identified as very high risk in terms of potential home price declines. Economic fluctuations and other local dynamics could be influencing this risk assessment.

Understanding the Implications

Being labeled as very high-risk doesn't necessarily mean that home prices will definitely decline in these markets. Instead, it serves as a cautionary signal for investors, buyers, and sellers to carefully evaluate their strategies and decisions. The MRI's analysis takes into account a range of factors that can impact home prices, such as economic indicators, local job markets, supply-demand ratios, and more.

It's important to note that real estate markets are influenced by complex interactions of factors, and the MRI provides a quantitative assessment to guide decision-making.

Informed Decision-Making

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator empowers individuals and organizations with the information needed to navigate the ever-changing landscape of real estate. By understanding the risk level in specific markets, stakeholders can adjust their strategies and make decisions that align with their goals and risk tolerance. Whether it's an investor considering a property purchase or a homeowner contemplating selling, the MRI offers valuable insights for making informed choices in the dynamic world of real estate.

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
Source: CoreLogic

U.S. House Price Index – March 2023

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released the U.S. House Price Index for March 2023, indicating a 0.2% increase in January 2023 from December 2022. The annual change in house prices from January 2022 to January 2023 was 5.3%, while the 0.1% decline reported for December 2022 remained unchanged.

Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Price Changes by Census Division:

The FHFA's report also indicates seasonally adjusted monthly price changes for nine census divisions in the US from December 2022 to January 2023. The Pacific division saw a -0.6% change, while the New England division saw a +2.0% change.

12-Month Changes by Census Division:

The report further highlights the 12-month changes in house prices by census division. The Pacific division saw a -1.5% change, while the South Atlantic division saw a +9.6% change.

Insights from FHFA:

According to Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics, “U.S. house prices changed slightly in January, continuing the trend of the last few months. Many of the January closings, on which this month's HPI is constructed, reflect rate locks after mortgage rates declined from their peak in early November. Inventories of available homes for sale remained low.”

Will Home Prices Drop
Source: FHFA 

U.S. House Price Index Report – 4Q 2022: FHFA HPI®

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U.S. house prices rose 8.4 percent between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. The U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was down 0.1 percent from November. Here are the significant findings of the report.

State-Wise House Prices

House prices rose in all 50 states, while prices declined in the District of Columbia between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. The five areas with the highest annual appreciation were Florida (15.2 percent), North Carolina (13.4 percent), South Carolina (12.9 percent), Hawaii (12.8 percent), and Maine (12.2 percent). The areas showing the lowest annual appreciation were the District of Columbia (-0.8 percent), California (2.3 percent), Idaho (3.1 percent), Oregon (3.6 percent), and Washington (3.7 percent).

Metropolitan Areas

House prices rose in all but six of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was greatest in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL at 20.1 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the greatest price decline was Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD) at -4.3 percent.

Census Divisions

Of the nine census divisions, the South Atlantic division recorded the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 12.4 percent increase between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. Appreciation was weakest in the Pacific division, where prices rose by 2.9 percent.

The Slowdown in House Price Appreciation

“House price appreciation continued to wane in the fourth quarter,” said Dr. Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “House prices grew at a much slower pace in recent quarters amid higher mortgage rates and a decline in mortgage applications. These negative pressures were partially offset by historically low inventory.”

house price trends
Source: FHFA

Conclusion: Will Housing Prices Drop in 2023?

The broader outlook from several housing analysts is that housing demand will continue to surge due to several factors. For e.g; the millennials have aged into their prime homebuying years, and they are now the fastest-growing segment of home buyers. In 2018, millennial homeownership was at a record low but the situation has changed markedly. They are no longer holding back when it comes to homeownership.

According to the 2023 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report from the National Association of Realtors, the demand for homes is increasing among baby boomers, who now make up the largest generation of homebuyers in the US, accounting for 39% of home buyers in 2022, up from 29% in 2021.

On the other hand, younger and older millennials' combined share of homebuyers decreased from 43% in 2021 to 28% in 2022. Generation X made up 24% of total buyers, and Generation Z makes up 4% of homebuyers, with 30% of Gen Z moving directly from a family member's home into homeownership.

Furthermore, buyers are now moving farther distances, with younger boomers moving the greatest distance at a median of 90 miles away. Additionally, all generations agreed that the most common reason to sell was to be closer to friends and family. Buyers expect to live in their homes for 15 years on average, up from 12 years in 2021.

Overall, the report suggests that demand for homes is growing among baby boomers and Generation Z while decreasing among younger and older millennials. Buyers are moving farther distances, with a desire to be closer to friends and family being the most common reason to sell. Buyers also view owning a home as a good investment, with a majority of buyers using a real estate agent to help with the purchase.

Hence, housing prices cannot drop drastically in 2023. Although the housing market appears to be cooling from 2023 through 2024, there are some bright spots. Economic forecasters, despite the recent recession, continue to expect robust demand from purchasers (millennials) and high home price increases in the housing market.

With homebuyers active and supply still lacking, the current trend of home prices will not see a major downfall. Despite a sluggish market and waning buyer enthusiasm, we anticipate that home demand will continue to outstrip available inventory. Increasing rental costs should add to this expected development.

However, as the number of available homes increases, the demand for housing should decrease owing to affordability concerns. As a result, we are not on the verge of a housing market crash. The rate of home price growth during the two years of the pandemic was unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates combined with increased inventory will result in slower home price growth but unlikely any big price decline.

It's important to remember that the housing market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and predictions are subject to change as conditions evolve. Keeping track of market indicators and staying informed about economic trends can help buyers, sellers, and industry professionals make well-informed decisions.

As the US housing market moves forward in 2023, it will be interesting to see how the various factors impacting home prices unfold. The balance between supply and demand, affordability concerns, economic conditions, and policy changes will continue to shape the trajectory of home prices nationwide.

Whether you're a potential homebuyer, seller, or industry observer, staying informed about the latest trends and forecasts can provide valuable insights into the US housing market. By understanding these dynamics, you can navigate the market more effectively and make informed decisions that align with your goals and aspirations.


Sources:

  • https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
  • https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/reportsplans/Pages/FHFA-Reports.aspx
  • https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
  • https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/housing-market-predictions/
  • https://www.zillow.com/resources/stay-informed/housing-market-predictions-2023/
  • https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights-march-2023/
  • https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/housing-market-index/articles/housing-market-predictions-for-the-next-5-years
  • https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/
  • https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/baby-boomers-overtake-millennials-as-largest-generation-of-home-buyers

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market Tagged With: home prices 2023, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Predictions 2023, Housing Prices

Where Are Housing Prices Falling 2022?

November 11, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

where are housing prices falling

Fortune reached out Moody's Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. The financial intelligence business predicted home price changes in 414 markets between 2022 and 2024. Moody's Analytics expects that 210 of the nation's 414 major housing markets will see home prices falling in the next two years and 204 will see home prices rise. 183 of the 413 biggest U.S. home markets are “overvalued” by more than 25%. Boise, Idaho, is 71.7% overvalued, and Flagstaff, Arizona, is 60.6%.

Redfin revealed its “risk score” on Friday, which identifies the home markets that are most vulnerable to a “housing slump.” The greater a market's “risk score,” the more likely it is that house prices will fall year over year.  Redfin examined 98 regional housing markets and evaluated indicators such as home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Among the 98 markets measured by Redfin, Riverside had the highest likelihood of seeing a “housing downturn.”

It was followed by Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Bakersfield, Phoenix, Tampa, and Tucson. Popular migration destinations where home prices soared during the pandemic, such as Boise, Phoenix, and Tampa, are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn amplified and year-over-year home prices decline if the economy enters a recession, a scenario that some economists believe is likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble.

<<<Also Read: Will the Housing Market Crash? >>>

Homeowners in those markets who are considering selling should market their properties as soon as possible to avoid price drops. Rust Belt cities like Cleveland and Buffalo, which are still inexpensive, are the most resilient to a housing market crash. The U.S. housing market slowed significantly in the spring due to rising mortgage rates. Redfin studied which metros are most vulnerable to home-price reductions if the country enters a recession and which are most immune to an economic slump.

Recession-proof northern metros, including Cleveland and Buffalo, NY, are relatively inexpensive. Prospective homebuyers in these places can proceed with confidence. Redfin's examination of 98 U.S. metros with relevant data utilizes home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Each metro is given an overall risk score relative to the others. 100 indicates the highest possibility of a housing market slump, including home-price decreases, while 0 indicates the lowest.

“Recession fears are escalating, mostly because the Fed has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation and cool consumer demand. Higher interest rates led to surging mortgage rates, which have already cooled down the housing market,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “If the U.S. does enter a recession, we’re unlikely to see a housing-market crash like in the Great Recession because the factors affecting the economy are different: Most homeowners have a fair amount of home equity and not much debt and unemployment is low.”

Housing Markets at Risk of Falling Home Prices

If the U.S. enters a recession, Riverside's home market will chill the most. It has the highest danger score of any major U.S. city, 84. It's more likely than other metros to see prices drop year over year during a recession or economic slowdown, according to housing and economic statistics. Riverside, which includes San Bernardino, Ontario, and Palm Springs, has variable house values and was a favorite location during the epidemic for both permanent movers and second-home buyers.

Riverside is followed by Boise (76.9), Cape Coral, FL (76.7), North Port, FL (75), and Las Vegas (74.2).

Sacramento, CA (73.1), Bakersfield, CA (72.2), Phoenix (72), Tampa, FL (70.7), and Tucson, AZ (70.1) round out the top 10.

Many of these housing markets, like Riverside, are popular migration destinations or have quickly growing property prices, both of which increase their likelihood of a housing slump. Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Phoenix were among the 20 fastest-cooling areas in May when mortgage rates reached 5.5%. As the economy continues to decline, prices may fall in many of these metros. Six of the 10 areas most at risk of downturns are among the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving from one metro to another.

Maricopa County (Phoenix) and Riverside County gained more residents from other parts of the U.S. than anywhere else in 2021, according to the U.S. Census. The most vulnerable metros have likewise seen an outsized price rise. North Port has the nation's fastest-growing house values, up 30.5 percent year over year in May, followed by Tampa (28.1 percent) and Las Vegas (26.8 percent ). Overall, nine of the ten most vulnerable locations had faster-growing house values than the national median (the exception is Sacramento, however, home prices there rose more than 40% throughout the pandemic, reaching $610,000 in May 2022).

Several of those metros went from inexpensive to unaffordable during the epidemic, owing in part to the migration of individuals from other locations. Among them is Boise, where the typical home price increased from $330,000 to $550,000 between May 2020 and May 2022, and Phoenix, where it increased from $300,000 to $485,000.

“Boise’s market is already turning around, as a lot of the people who moved to Idaho during the pandemic are either moving back to their hometowns or cashing in and moving to more affordable places. The housing market was hot during the pandemic, largely because of out-of-town buyers,” said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton.

Three at-risk metros are in California and three in Florida. San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco experienced relatively moderate price increases throughout the epidemic, its people tend to have high salaries and considerable home equity, and their housing markets started falling fast in the first half of 2022, mainly owing to collapsing tech stocks. Not all homes in these metros will lose value. Large single-family houses in spread-out areas are recession-proof.

Housing Markets in Which Prices Are Unlikely to Fall

Relatively affordable Rust Belt metros are most resilient in the face of a recession. In case of a recession, Akron, Ohio has the lowest risk of experiencing a housing decline. It has the lowest total risk score of any major US city at 29.6. Low home-price volatility, a low debt-to-income ratio, a small number of second houses, and the fact that properties in Akron are unlikely to be flipped are some of the characteristics that make the city relatively stable.

With an overall risk score of 30.4, Akron is followed by Philadelphia, Montgomery County, PA (31.4), El Paso, TX (32.2), and Cleveland (32.4). The top ten include Cincinnati (32.6), Boston (32.6), Buffalo, NY (33.1), Kansas City, MO (33.4), and Rochester, NY (34.4). Almost all of those metros are inexpensive and have relatively slow-increasing prices, both of which would benefit their housing markets in the event of a recession.

Almost all of the most resilient metros are located in the northern United States, either in the Rust Belt or on the East Coast. Three of them are in Ohio, two in New York, and two in Pennsylvania. In nine of the ten most resilient metros, prices climbed at a slower rate than the national average (El Paso is the exception).

Seven of the 10 metros least in danger of a housing downturn had a median sale price below $300,000 in May, and nine of them were below the $431,000 national median. Affordability benefits property markets in a recession because more people can buy houses, and such locations may attract out-of-town buyers. Boston is pricey, although property prices climbed modestly throughout the epidemic. It's busy and lost residents as remote work became prevalent.

U.S. Metros Most and Least Susceptible to a Housing Downturn in the Next Recession

Ranked by highest to the lowest chance of a housing downturn. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score for each metro, relative to the other metros in this analysis. The highest possible score is 100 and the lowest possible score is 0. The indicators are as follows: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, the year-over-year change in domestic migration, the share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply. Each factor is weighted equally.

U.S. Metro Area

Overall Score Average Home-Loan-to-Value Ratio, 2021 Percent of Homes Flipped in 2021 Rank: How Quickly Housing Market Cooled in First Half of 2022 Net Domestic Migration in 2021, YoY Share of Second Homes, 2021 Price Growth in 2021, YoY
Riverside, CA 84 83% 4.50% 15 19,204 7.70% 21.00%
Boise, ID 76.9 6 6,782 6.00% 30.90%
Cape Coral, FL 76.7 81% 2.90% 11 7,345 23.40% 23.60%
North Port, FL 75 79% 4.40% 18 8,283 20.20% 23.30%
Las Vegas, NV 74.2 84% 8.30% 12 -15,143 7.60% 18.60%
Sacramento, CA 73.1 81% 5.40% 2 4,157 4.30% 19.30%
Bakersfield, CA 72.2 87% 3.80% 21 6,111 2.50% 17.30%
Phoenix, AZ 72 82% 10.30% 17 -15,530 7.20% 25.40%
Tampa, FL 70.7 85% 7.40% 22 524 8.10% 19.60%
Tucson, AZ 70.1 84% 7.70% 54 -2,677 7.10% 21.50%
San Diego, CA 69.8 81% 5.30% 8 -8,189 3.70% 17.50%
Jacksonville, FL 69.3 85% 7.20% 36 4,136 6.20% 16.60%
Stockton, CA 68.2 84% 4.70% 5 3,578 1.00% 19.30%
Knoxville, TN 67 86% 4.60% 13 4,527 5.20% 18.30%
Orlando, FL 63.8 85% 6.40% 31 -6,536 8.70% 16.70%
Charleston, SC 63.4 85% 3.80% 67 -2,921 7.60% 15.40%
West Palm Beach, FL 63.3 80% 3.10% 30 972 12.00% 17.40%
Fresno, CA 60.6 85% 4.70% 37 2,719 2.90% 17.90%
Raleigh, NC 60.4 83% 8.90% 42 3,430 2.60% 17.50%
Oxnard, CA 59.8 79% 2.50% 28 323 3.30% 16.70%
Salt Lake City, UT 57.7 -3,020 2.00% 22.80%
Columbia, SC 56.9 90% 4.40% 2,296 3.20%
Providence, RI 56.6 85% 2.70% 44 3,664 3.90% 15.40%
Atlanta, GA 56.4 86% 9.90% 47 -4,229 2.20% 19.20%
Miami, FL 56.3 82% 2.90% 53 -5,120 5.90% 18.60%
Charlotte, NC 56.1 85% 10.10% -6,444 2.70% 16.50%
Virginia Beach, VA 55.8 92% 3.20% 80 864 3.40% 8.30%
Tacoma, WA 55.5 9 -3,571 1.70% 19.80%
Detroit, MI 54.8 87% 5.20% 70 -2,062 1.00% 15.40%
Los Angeles, CA 54.8 79% 4.10% 46 -69,329 1.90% 17.30%
Austin, TX 54.6 16 -8,609 3.90% 31.60%
Portland, OR 54.3 82% 3.70% 14 -17,716 2.30% 15.40%
Anaheim, CA 53.9 76% 4.50% 20 -6,644 3.80% 16.00%
Denver, CO 53.8 82% 6.90% 7 -18,063 2.40% 16.70%
Colorado Springs, CO 53.7 87% 5.00% 693 2.50%
Baton Rouge, LA 52.4 89% 3.00% 2,287 2.40% 9.80%
Greenville, SC 52.1 85% 3.50% 32 1,771 4.70% 14.00%
Winston-Salem, NC 51.9 87% 5.10% 2.70% 13.70%
Grand Rapids, MI 51.7 86% 3.60% 29 1,028 2.40% 15.20%
Greensboro, NC 51.7 87% 6.70% 38 -181 2.10% 11.80%
Warren, MI 50.5 86% 2.90% 35 6,180 1.60% 11.40%
Tulsa, OK 50.1 88% 3.40% 45 2,325 2.10% 12.50%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 49.9 82% 3.00% 72 -5,121 7.50% 13.30%
Fort Worth, TX 49.6 50 1,978 1.70% 18.30%
Nashville, TN 49.3 84% 8.30% 48 -6,093 3.40% 17.00%
Allentown, PA 48.6 87% 2.20% 62 3,722 3.40% 14.20%
Camden, NJ 47.9 88% 3.00% 75 4,300 0.50% 17.90%
Houston, TX 47.7 24 -334 2.90% 15.50%
Seattle, WA 47.6 79% 1.90% 4 -37,365 1.80% 17.20%
Nassau County, NY 47.4 80% 3.60% 58 12,296 4.70% 15.20%
Albuquerque, NM 46.8 -1,714 2.80%
New Orleans, LA 46.6 88% 2.90% 23 -3,930 3.40% 10.70%
San Antonio, TX 46.6 40 -138 2.90% 15.10%
San Jose, CA 46.4 74% 2.50% 1 -22,661 0.80% 13.60%
San Francisco, CA 46.3 72% 1.90% 10 -55,918 2.40% 4.80%
Oakland, CA 45.8 78% 2.60% 3 -23,280 1.00% 16.30%
Dallas, TX 45.4 40 -5,685 1.70% 17.90%
Richmond, VA 45.4 87% 3.70% 59 1,995 1.40% 12.30%
Oklahoma City, OK 45.3 88% 5.10% 52 476 1.70% 10.60%
Washington, D.C. 44.2 87% 2.50% 28 -35,800 1.50% 10.10%
New Haven, CT 44.1 87% 2.00% 82 4,492 1.90% 15.80%
Birmingham, AL 43.4 88% 5.90% 68 95 1.40% 8.40%
Little Rock, AR 43.1 89% 4.90% 43 472 1.80% 10.70%
Frederick, MD 42.9 84% 2.00% 25 -58 0.90% 11.70%
Memphis, TN 42.7 87% 7.50% 33 -535 1.20% 13.30%
Honolulu, HI 42.6 79% 0.50% 19 6.20% 7.80%
St. Louis, MO 42.2 86% 3.40% -2,214 1.30% 10.10%
Baltimore, MD 41.9 86% 2.60% 74 6,085 1.40% 8.50%
Bridgeport, CT 41.7 81% 1.10% 88 8,871 2.00% 11.60%
Worcester, MA 40.8 86% 1.80% 57 3,354 1.20% 16.10%
Indianapolis, IN 39.9 41 902 1.40% 13.50%
Newark, NJ 39.3 84% 1.90% 73 7,348 2.80% 13.20%
Wichita, KS 39.3 -1,813 1.10% 12.50%
Lake County, IL 38.6 85% 1.80% 87 2,746 1.70% 14.40%
Louisville, KY 38.6 87% 4.80% 34 -378 1.20% 9.70%
Wilmington, DE 37.8 88% 2.80% 64 738 1.80% 11.30%
Hartford, CT 36.8 86% 1.70% 80 7,182 1.80% 12.00%
Minneapolis, MN 36.8 85% 3.70% 50 -10,673 1.30% 11.10%
Gary, IN 36.7 939 1.20% 9.70%
Pittsburgh, PA 36.4 87% 1.60% 76 -337 1.50% 12.70%
Elgin, IL 35.8 84% 1.10% 60 3,590 0.60% 11.50%
New York, NY 35.4 78% 1.70% 48 -2,01,570 2.80% 12.30%
Syracuse, NY 35.2 86% 2.20% 1,510 3.30% 11.00%
Milwaukee, WI 35.1 86% 3.30% 79 -2,993 1.40% 7.20%
Omaha, NE 35.1 87% 4.90% 56 -237 1.30% 9.70%
Albany, NY 34.5 87% 2.00% 90 3,521 2.80% 13.70%
Chicago, IL 34.4 86% 1.80% 70 -32,998 1.30% 11.70%
Columbus, OH 34.2 85% 3.40% 61 2,507 1.40% 13.50%
Rochester, NY 34 85% 2.00% 86 1,330 3.20% 12.60%
Kansas City, MO 33.4 -1,491 1.30% 10.90%
Buffalo, NY 33.1 86% 2.60% 78 1,877 1.40% 17.00%
Boston, MA 32.6 79% 1.20% 63 -23,964 2.80% 12.20%
Cincinnati, OH 32.6 87% 3.90% 84 -360 1.30% 13.90%
Cleveland, OH 32.4 86% 2.50% 71 225 1.20% 9.50%
El Paso, TX 32.2 89 -24 1.80% 13.90%
Montgomery County, PA 31.4 83% 1.80% 66 6,685 0.80% 11.00%
Philadelphia, PA 30.4 86% 2.00% 64 -15,721 1.40% 10.10%
Akron, OH 29.6 87% 2.70% 83 2,029 1.20% 7.90%

 


Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/metros-recession-risk-housing-downturn-2022/

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Downturn, Housing Downturn in a Recession, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, Housing Prices, Recession

Where's Housing Headed? Follow Rents

February 17, 2010 by Marco Santarelli

It may not be the most widespread measure of housing prices, but if you want to follow a powerful driver, look at rents.

Specifically, it's the rents Americans pay on condos, apartments or houses that are about the same size, and share the same neighborhood as your ranch or colonial, that in the end determine what your house is worth.

"If you look at the trend in rents to see where housing prices are headed, you're looking at the right measure," says Yale economist Robert Shiller.

In recent reports, Deutsche Bank demonstrates how steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That's a golden mean that America hasn't seen in almost a decade. The DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.

Before we get to the numbers, let's examine why rents exercise a kind of gravitational pull over home prices.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: housing forecast, Housing Market, housing outlook, Housing Prices, Real Estate Investing, rents

Further Home Price Declines Forecast Despite Recent Gains

October 27, 2009 by Marco Santarelli

Contrary to popular opinion, home prices have not bottomed out, according to the financial information and analysis firm Fiserv.

The firm projects median home prices will drop 11.3 percent by June 30 of next year. It predicts declines in 342 of 381 markets over the next year. Only then will prices stabilize, and rise 3.6 percent in 2011, the firm predicts.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index had seemed to indicate prices had already stabilized. The composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June, and July, and home prices gained 3.6 percent nationwide.

But it now looks like that may have been a blip due to the impact of the tax credit for first-time homebuyers, analysts said. By the end of November, when it expires, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break.

In Fiserv’s latest forecast, the markets that will have the steepest declines are those with the greatest number of foreclosures.  [Are these new opportunities for real estate investors?]

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home prices, Housing Market, Housing Prices, Real Estate Markets

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