Norada Real Estate Investments

The Housing Market is About to Get Even More Oversupplied

by

While both the media and stock investors believe that housing has bottomed, they are unaware of the massive supply of homes that are already in the foreclosure process that will certainly drive home prices down even further when they are sold. We have been projecting a “W” shaped recovery for some time, and we are becoming even more convinced that we are right. The shape of the second leg down is almost completely dependent on the level of government intervention that will take place.

For a number of reasons, banks have not been aggressively taking title to homes and selling them, which has resulted in very few distressed sales in comparison to the actual level of distress in the market. This delay in REO sales, along with historically low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit, has helped to stabilize the housing market – temporarily.

It is very clear that price stabilization is temporary unless something is done. Here are some facts to help project what housing will be like in 2010:

[Read more…]

What Housing Bust?

by

During the past three years, home prices grew in the beer-guzzling heartland and fell in the wine-sipping coastal states.

If you're a beef-eating, beer-guzzling, pick-up driving resident of heartland America, there's a good chance you escaped the housing bust. But pesto-chomping, chardonnay-sipping, hybrid-driving city-slickers were probably out of luck.

Over the past three years, 23 states recorded home price gains in the majority of their metro areas, according to analytics firm Fiserv. And where were most of those gainers? In much of the so-called heartland: the South, the Plains and most of the non-coastal West.

Meanwhile, the 16 states that posted declines were led by much of New England and the Northeast, plus California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

Most telling, however, was that the 12 remaining states — those that posted mixed results in their metro areas — were found in every region of America.

And even in the mixed results states, such as New York, the bust hit "blue" metro areas, like New York City and Long Island (both down 21.7%), and spared "red" upstate cities. Buffalo prices grew 8.3%, Syracuse climbed 8.4%, Utica gained 10.4%, and Binghamton was up 17.7%.

The states where metro markets rose generally share two characteristics, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: low prices and open space.

[Read more…]

Foreclosures Hit All-Time High!

by

Just when you thought foreclosure filings were stabilizing, they hit another all-time high with almost 938,000 homeowners filing in the third quarter, according to Realty Trac.  This is a 5% increase from the previous quarter.

Six states account for 62% of the nations foreclosures:
California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation's total foreclosure activity in the third quarter.  That accounts for 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

Although California's foreclosure activity decreased almost 2% from Q2 there were still 250,054 properties that received a foreclosure filing.   That was a 10% drop in default notices but a 4% increase in scheduled auctions and 12% increase in REOs.

[Read more…]

Is the US Currency Dying?

by

I have avoided this subject since it is extremely comprehensive and difficult to comprehend. But out of popular request, by you my readers, I have decided to tackle the subject of US currency valuations, its impacts, and related investor fear in this article.

The U.S. dollar is the preferred world reserve currency and the most powerful instrument both domestic and international. This article explores how you, the , are impacted from its valuation and what we should be doing as a nation to best manage it.

Fear is certainly not unwarranted given that a swing in dollar valuation against foreign currencies impacts the price of almost all U.S. goods. In particular, investors of U.S. Real Estate and U.S. Equities watch our currency very closely to monitor the future health of our economy. When the dollar is highly valued compared to other currencies the US consumer reaps lower domestic prices for all imported consumer goods and materials (everything from toys to building materials). Of course a highly valued U.S. dollar makes all of our exported goods more expensive to international consumers.

In contrast a weak US dollar makes imported consumer goods more expensive and exported goods less expensive to the rest of the world. Large swings create havoc to our economy and make monetary policy difficult at best. Ultimately, ourselves and the international community strive for a predictable and stable U.S. currency. This allows us to regulate our monetary policy more effectively and stabilizes the prices of goods and services. From time to time we have seen our international suppliers/buyers manipulate our currency in hopes of getting more out of the U.S. consumer, however given our recent economic woes, most of the international community is trying to create dollar stability.

[Read more…]

Flipping Homes No Longer Profitable, Investors Pursue A Long-Term Strategy

by

Homeowners are facing an economic crunch from the housing crash, but investors often face even more severe repercussions. More than 1 in 3 foreclosures are of investment properties, and should the foreclosure epidemic worsen as forecast, that number is expected to rise as more investors walk away from mortgages.

During the real estate boom investors and speculators bought homes, fixed them up and many sold within months. But the real estate crash prevents them from doing just that. Living in a home intended to be an has become the answer for some investors, while others select to rent the property. More than 240,000 homes sit vacant nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A key strategy of buying a home to flip has gone by the wayside as more and more purchase properties for the long term. Just when and how long it will take to reap profits from their investments is an uncertainty with some economists saying that it could take more than 10 years for the market to become healthy enough to make a good profit.

In his book “The Millionaire Real Estate Investor”, Gary Keller, founder of Keller Williams Realty International, keeps a basic theme: “Buy real estate right, pay it down and pay it off.” The ultimate goal should be to own lots of real estate free and clear for maximum cash flow. That mantra is attracting millions of investors and wannabe investors back into the depressed housing market to invest.

[Read more…]

The U.S. Housing Market's False Dawn

by

Is the U.S. housing market truly at a turning point, as seem to increasingly believe? Or is this actually a false dawn, meaning that there are problems ahead for those who turned bullish too soon?

New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case-Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

Housing stocks are certainly acting as if a recovery must be on the way. Pulte Homes Inc. has more than doubled from its low. Toll Brothers Inc. is up around 70% from its bottom. D.R. Horton Enterprises is up almost four times from its bottom. Lennar Corp. is up about 4.5 times from its low. Finally, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. is up almost tenfold from its low after a flirtation with bankruptcy. Yet all of these companies are still racking up quarterly losses, according to their most recent earnings reports.

In terms of house prices, it would seem unlikely that a bear market bottom has been reached. Yes, the average house price is now back down around its long-term average of about 3.2 times average earnings, or only a little above it. But history suggests that markets don’t bottom at their average valuation: In fact, after such a huge excess to the upside, they overshoot on the downside.

[Read more…]

The Second Wave of Mortgage Defaults Ahead

by

I'm sure you know by now that it was the first wave of defaults in “subprime” mortgages that helped spark today's economic meltdown.  What you might NOT know is that there's a whole second wave of mortgages in the pipeline that are just as toxic and just as large as the first.  This second wave may be just as far reaching.

You can see that the first peak in subprime loan “resets” arrived smack dab in the middle of 2008. And many billions in bank write-downs, along with trillions of dollars in market losses, immediately followed.

This second wave of toxic property loans, made up of so-called “option ARM” or “Alt-A” loans, won't hit peak resets until 2011.

What are these toxic loans? They are the fancy mortgages snapped up by middle Americans to buy homes nobody imagined would be worth only a fraction of their selling price  just two years later.

And just like in the subprime wave, these loan contracts also carry a “reset” risk in the fine print, when already high monthly mortgage payments could as much as double — right at the height of the second biggest market meltdown since the Great Depression.

Millions of additional consumers will freeze up as their finances go over a cliff.  More bank losses will drag down even more so-called “blue chip” retirement portfolios, and the impact of the consumer bust will get “multiplied” yet again. Millions of additional Americans could lose everything.

Will this present us with new ?  Very likely.  In addition to the large number of foreclosures and bank REOs, most real estate markets around the country will continue to offer investors with low-priced real estate due to an ongoing buyer's market sustained by excess inventory.

What do you think the upcoming second wave of mortgage “resets” will bring us?

FHA Likely To Be The Next Shoe To Drop

by

The FHA is a big reason that home prices haven't fallen even further. The FHA's aggressive lending programs have continued throughout the housing downturn, causing its market share of the mortgage industry to grow from 2% in 2005 to 23% today. The FHA is an even larger percentage of the new home mortgage industry – nearly 25% according to HUD.

The FHA insurance fund, however, is likely running dry. According to a report from mortgage finance experts, the FHA will not meet its minimum requirement as of its fiscal year-end, which is only 26 days from now. For months, we have been investigating this and reporting our findings to our clients.

While almost all of the experts believe that Congress would support the FHA if necessary (it's currently self-funded), we wonder if FHA officials will be under pressure to continue tightening their lending policies, which currently allow 96.5% mortgages to people with 600 FICO scores. Already, FHA has contracted its own standards to require a 10% down payment for those with credit scores below 500.

Claims against the insurance fund have climbed, with roughly 7% of all FHA-insured loans now delinquent.

Given the FHA's September 30 fiscal year-end, this financial reality will come to light about the same time that other market forces run out of steam:

  • Just as the $8,000 tax credit expires.
  • Just as more of the stalled REO currently held on banks' balance sheets will be coming to market.

The culmination of all these factors means housing could see another leg down by early next year. 

[Read more…]

Real Estate Needs Inflation

by

In the past 36 months Real Estate has seen a decrease in its average mean value, depending on your metro area, an average of 12 to 32 percent.  This is referred to as deflation (in economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services). Deflation is not necessarily bad for everyone, especially for new market buyers that need a more affordable housing price in order to purchase.

Ultimately, a stable market economy strives for price stability.  In Real Estate this is usually meeting or slightly beating the United States inflationary rate (the opposite of deflation and normally measured with the use of a publicly posted index called the Consumer Price Index).  A stable Real Estate market typically lasts many years and almost always follows a Real Estate Recession.  In fact the bulk of years within the seven to ten year cycles, represent a stable Real Estate Market.  Therefore, 80 percent or more of the historical annual appreciation in real estate has valuation increases at or just above inflation.

For those of you who are business people, you likely seek investments that are stable, predictable, and going up in value each year.  The conservative investor should consider buying during Real Estate market cycles that hold a stable future with somewhat predictable results (i.e. less speculative).  Such a market is likely to exist for the next 5 years.  For those of you sitting on the sidelines wondering when to enter this market, it is time for you to jump in, prior to any inflation, and thereby purchasing at the bottom.  Anyone who classifies themselves as a conservative low risk should certainly enter the market right now.

What about HYPERINFLATION?

[Read more…]

2009 Recession Ends – The Road to Real Estate Recovery

by

All economists and our financial markets are betting on this quarter to produce positive GDP.  Positive GDP marks the ending of the recession. Unfortunately with low wages and high unemployment the consumer will feel less positive over the next year. Still we are marking an end to the worst recession since the Great Depression and everyone should be pleased with this.

Road to REAL ESTATE RECOVERY

Now let's talk about real estate and recovery; The regional markets that had received the highest historical appreciation rates during 2003 to 2006 also had some of the largest price adjustments over the past 36 months. States that had these incredible high real estate returns, like California and Florida, have also seen the highest incidents of foreclosures. Logic would dictate that these markets will bounce back the fastest, but unfortunately they too will recover slowly as will the rest of the nation. An economic recession takes time to unwind and buyer exuberance usually only occurs once the entire nation is certain that the real estate market can only have one trend, up.

The psychology of man dictates that a deep recession brings about caution for some time to come (probably a few years). The States that had some of the highest swings will once again have the highest appreciation. Still it is best not to hold your breath for this in areas like California and Florida until old wounds heal (likely a few more years). In the meantime, recovery is with us. Recovery means price declines stop and appreciation kicks in. We are already seeing this in the hardest hit areas with homes priced at or around mean home pricing.

The June 2009 numbers just came out for pending home sales. We had the FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH of pending home sales increases (up 3.6% month to month) and over a 6% increase compared to June 2008. Real estate, like any form of investment, has cyclical patterns that are dependent upon supply and demand. Optimism will once again kick in and sellers, buyers, developers all become happy over time.

[Read more…]

Blog Posts

Contact

Norada Real Estate Investments 30251 Golden Lantern, Suite E-261 Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

(949) 218-6668
(800) 611-3060
BBB