The Houston Housing Market is Cooling

We will discuss the latest Houston housing market trends & forecasts for 2023. The Houston housing market report for January 2023 revealed that home sales were slower than usual, which was anticipated given the holiday season. However, there were several positive indicators for potential homebuyers. One of the most notable was the more robust inventory, which gives buyers more options to choose from. Another encouraging sign was that prices were moderating, which means that the market is becoming more balanced and less competitive.

Houston Home Prices 

• The single-family average price rose 1.5 percent to $381,983.
• The single-family median price increased by 1.6 percent to $315,000.
• Those are the lowest price increases since October 2019.
• In March of last year, the average price of a single-family house in Houston surpassed $400,000 – a record high of $438,290.
• Since May 2021, the median price has stayed above $300,000.
• Townhome/condominium median price increased 7.7 percent to $191,000.
• Townhome/condominium average price decreased 4.3 percent to $230,775.

According to the Houston Association of Realtors’ (HAR) January 2023 Market Update, single-family home sales fell 29.9 percent, with 4,549 units sold compared to 6,492 in January 2022. That marks the tenth consecutive monthly decline. However, when compared to the last January before the pandemic – January of 2020, with a sales volume of 4,772 units – sales were down just 4.6 percent.

In January, all housing sectors reported reductions. In contrast, the rental market for single-family homes posted another robust increase, indicating that prospective purchasers continue to favor the rental market until mortgage rates decline and inflationary concerns subside.

Houston Housing Market Trends 2023

The Houston Association of Realtors' January 2023 Market Update showed a 29.9% decrease in single-family home sales, marking the 10th consecutive monthly decline. All housing segments experienced declines, except for single-family home rentals which saw a solid gain. Despite the slowdown, experts believe this is more of a return to seasonal home sales trending rather than a market in distress.

Single-family home prices also rose at the slowest pace since before the pandemic. In the coming months, buyers and sellers can expect a more balanced market, with moderate prices, more inventory, and an upswing in sales later in the year if mortgage rates stabilize and homes continue hitting the market at more affordable price points.

Months of inventory continue to grow, reaching a 2.7-month supply in January. A 6.0-month supply is traditionally considered to represent a “balanced market,” in which neither the buyer nor the seller has an advantage.

On the other hand, townhouses and condominiums experienced their eighth consecutive monthly decline, dropping 37.1 percent year-over-year with 353 closed sales versus 561 a year earlier. The average price dropped 4.3 percent to $230,775 and the median price fell 7.7 percent to $191,000. Both figures are below the historic highs reached in April 2022. Inventory grew from a 1.5-month supply to 2.1 months.

The HAR's most recent report on the Greater Houston Area Housing Market is available below. It analyses important housing indicators across the Greater Houston region for January 2022.

• Single-family home sales fell 29.9 percent year-over-year, as the market tries to recover from economic headwinds;
• All housing segments experienced negative sales.
• Days on Market (DOM) for single-family homes went from 39 to 59 days;
• Total property sales fell 30.9 percent with 5,650 units sold;
• Total dollar volume dropped 30.9 percent to $2.0 billion;
• The single-family average price rose 1.5 percent to $381,983;
• The single-family median price increased by 1.6 percent to $315,000;
• Single-family home months of inventory registered a 2.7-months supply, up from 1.3 months a year earlier;
• Townhome/condominium sales experienced their eighth straight monthly decline, falling 37.1 percent;
• The average price is down 4.3 percent to $230,775 and the median price is up 7.7 percent to $191,000.

• $1 – $99,999: decreased 17.0 percent
• $100,000 – $149,999: decreased 24.3 percent
• $150,000 – $249,999: decreased 35.1 percent
• $250,000 – $499,999: decreased 29.6 percent
• $500,000 – $999,999: decreased 22.6 percent
• $1M and above: decreased 25.7 percent

Houston Housing Market Forecast 2023

Looking at the current statistics, what are the Houston real estate market predictions? NeighborhoodScout.com's data also shows that Houston real estate appreciated by nearly 98.21% over the last ten years. Its annual appreciation rate has been averaging 7.08%. This figure puts it in the top 30% nationally for real estate appreciation. During the twelve-month period (2021 Q3 – 2022 Q3), the Houston appreciation rate was nearly 14.76%. In the quarter, from 2022 Q2 – 2022 Q3, the appreciation rate was 2.07%.

Let us examine the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Houston has a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U.S. Since the last twelve months, the Greater Houston home values have appreciated by 8.7% — Zillow Home Value Index. 

ZHVI represents the whole housing stock and not just the homes that list or sell in a given month. The typical home value of homes in Greater Houston is currently $296,083. It indicates that 50 percent of all housing stock in the area is worth more than $296,083 and 50 percent is worth less (adjusting for seasonal fluctuations).

Here is Zillow's home price forecast for Houston, Harris County, and Houston – The Woodlands-Sugar Land. The Zillow Home Value Forecast (ZHVF) is the one-year forecast of the Zillow Home Values Index (ZHVI). ZHVF is created using all homes, mid-tier cut of ZHVI and is available both raw and smoothed and seasonally adjusted.

• Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro home values have gone up 8.7% over the past year.
• 1-year Market Forecast Ending December 2023 is Negative.
• Home prices are predicted to decline by 1.6% between December 2022 to December 2023.
• 0.984 – Median sale-to-list ratio (December 31, 2022)
• 18.1% – Percent of sales over list price
• 62.6% – Percent of sales under list price
• 33 – Median days to pending

The Houston housing market saw a decline in sales in January 2023, however, there are positive indicators for the upcoming year. Home prices rose at the slowest pace since before the pandemic, and the 1-year market forecast is negative, with a predicted decline of 1.6%. Despite this, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro area has seen a steady rise in home values, increasing by 8.7% over the past year.

As of December 31, 2022, the median sale-to-list ratio was 0.984, and 18.1% of sales were over list price, while 62.6% were under list price. The median days to pending is 33. Buyers and sellers can expect a competitive market with a slight downturn in prices in the coming months.

Clearly, for the long-term investment, you cannot ignore Houston. Investing in a rental property for the long term would build your equity and also generate cash flow through rental income. If you want to increase your cash flow in 2023, you will find great deals in the Houston real estate market.

Houston has been one of the hottest real estate markets in the country for years. It is also one of the hottest real estate markets for investing in rental properties. The Houston metro area offers great opportunities for investors who are looking for a stable market that offers both cash flow and equity growth at a price that is STILL well below their replacement value. According to many experts, Houston has been in seller mode for several years now and there’s no reason to think that will change drastically in 2023. 

However, the pace of the market is going to be moderate with no rapid price appreciation as seen in the last two years. Although the desire to own a home remains strong, the combination of high home prices and mortgage rates will make it difficult for many first-time buyers to afford one. Houston and the entire metro area market lack sufficient housing supply, so it cannot shift to a complete buyer’s real estate market, for the long term.

In a balanced real estate market, it would take about five to six months for the supply to dwindle to zero. In terms of months of supply, Houston can become a buyer’s real estate market if the supply increases to more than five months of inventory. And that’s not going to happen. Therefore, in the long term, the Houston real estate market remains skewed to sellers, due to a persistent imbalance in supply and demand.

Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, timing your local market is an important part of real estate investment. While the rapid real estate appreciation Houston witnessed earlier in the decade has slowed, the combination of a strong economy, low unemployment, and a lack of inventory in many market segments continues to push home prices in Houston.

Houston Real Estate Market Statistics (Previous Year)

The Houston real estate market in 2022 saw record-high average and median prices, but also declining sales, particularly due to a lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates. June had the year’s strongest sales volume with 9,844 single-family units sold. Despite this, new listings gave a boost to inventory levels, which hit a high of 2.8 months in October and November.

In total, 95,113 single-family homes were sold in 2022, representing a 10.9% decrease from the previous year, while the average and median prices increased by 10% and 12.8%, respectively. According to HAR’s December/Full-Year 2022 Housing Market Update, single-family home sales fell 10.9 percent to 95,113.

Sales of all property types totaled 117,572, down 10.7 percent from 2021. Total dollar volume dropped just 2.0 percent to $45.6 billion versus $46.5 billion in 2021. The lease market remained strong as many prospective buyers opted to rent until they were ready to buy.

Houston Rental Market Trends

The Zumper Houston Metro Area Report analyzed active listings last month across the metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The Texas one bedroom median rent was $1,160 last month. Houston was the most expensive cities with one bedroom priced at $1,310. Texas City was the most affordable city with rent at $990.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in Houston Metro Area (Year-Over-Year)

• Texas City had the fastest growing rent, up 13.8% since this time last year.
• Spring saw rent climb 7.6%, making it second.
• Houston & Galveston were tied for third with rents both increasing 7.4%.

As of February 12, 2023, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Houston is currently $1,350. This is a 12% increase compared to the previous year. Over the past month, the average rent for a studio apartment in Houston increased by 3% to $1,251. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment increased by 4% to $1,350, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment increased by 1% to $1,655.

• Two-bedroom apartment rents average $1,655 (a 13% increase from last year).
• Three-bedroom apartment rents average $1,890 (a 0% increase from last year).
• Four-bedroom apartment rents average $2,110 (a 4% decrease from last year).

Some of the most affordable neighborhoods where the asking prices are below the average Houston rent:

• East Little York, where the average rent goes for $870/month.
• Greater Eastwood, where renters pay $850/mo on average.
• Gulfton, where the average rent goes for $1160/mo.

Houston Real Estate Investment Outlook

Investing in Houston real estate can be a worthy investment due to a steady rate of appreciation. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. Should you consider Houston real estate investment?  Houston is a minimally walkable city in Harris County with a population of approximately 2,112,810 people. It is a diverse city with lots to offer that will cater to the tastes of a variety of potential buyers and tenants.

According to Neighborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, one and two-bedroom single-family detached homes are the most common housing units in Houston. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Houston include large apartment complexes, duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments. Single-family homes account for about 45% of Houston's housing units.

Nearly 79,000 single-family detached homes were sold in the first 11 months of 2019, with year-to-date sales running 4.1 percent ahead of last year’s record volume. The total number of homes sold in the entire twelve months of 2018 was 82,229. Residential units, hotels, office buildings, and restaurants; the city is seeing continuous development projects that promise to keep the real estate market strong. Many of Houston’s neighborhoods are some of the most attractive places to live in the whole of Texas, and it’s not hard to see why.

With a great balance of urban regions and open spaces in the suburbs, the potential for development is clear to see, and the natural features of the land are some of the most attractive features you could hope for in an investment district. The Texas real estate market has been pretty quiet for a little under a decade now, but the real estate market in Houston has managed to remain relatively consistent while its surrounding areas have dragged their feet.

Houston has always been a hotbed of buyer activity; just ask the multitude of overseas investors who choose Houston as the city of their choice to invest in real estate. There was a time when Houston seemed immune to the highs and lows of housing cycles, but it now seems to have joined the pace of the national average.

But its rate of appreciation continues to be slightly above the national rate. With an extremely diversified economy and a huge demand for housing, Houston remains one of the top markets in the nation for real estate investing. Houston is one of the country’s top job creators, the home of America’s booming energy industry, is more diverse than New York City, and lets you stretch a paycheck farther than anywhere else in the country. Houston is also one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation.

Houston Real Estate Market After Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey had some fascinating and somewhat surprising effects on the Houston Real Estate Market. Harvey’s devastating economic impacts have a silver lining for homebuyers in Houston. Houston's real estate market forecasts look promising after the hit the city took from Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Big weather events hit many areas of the USA hard last year, and the costs of repairing the damage have been astronomical. But Houston has shown its trademark resilience, and 2018 is predicted to see real estate growth of 2.8% in the city, meaning now would be a good time to invest.

Hurricane Harvey tremendously impacted the real estate market in Houston, Texas. Houston had some of the largest swings in real estate value. So what were the economic ramifications of Hurricane Harvey on this delicate market? First, people have renewed interest in houses that were located in areas that did not flood.

This isn’t a particularly surprising statistic. Buyers now have confirmation that these areas can survive a catastrophic event and that they won’t be in any danger of damage. A recent trend, though, has been that homes in areas that were damaged by Hurricane Harvey have started to see a pick-up in sales.

Many houses that were damaged are being quickly sold to real estate investors. They saw an opportunity after Hurricane Harvey to buy damaged homes on the cheap in the Houston Real Estate Market. This has, in turn, led to Houston becoming a valuable “hot spot” for the real estate market in the US.

In October alone, 6,381 homes were sold in the Houston Real Estate Market, an increase of 7.5% over the same period last year. Agents are not only selling houses at a faster rate, but they are also commanding a higher price for their sales. Realtors are selling houses in Houston, Texas for over $7,000 or more than in previous years.

Perhaps the largest increase, though, has been in rental marketing. People whose houses Hurricane Harvey damaged have been looking to rent since the hurricane struck in late October. The rental market in Houston is approaching an all-time high. Investors are also intrigued by this statistic as it allows them to make money off of houses they may not be residing in at a given time.

This has further contributed to an increase in the housing market in Houston, Texas. The rental statistics for single-family homes and townhomes/condominiums are staggering. Single-family homes saw an increase of 83.6 percent over 365 days while townhomes and condominiums saw an increase of a mind-boggling 92.2 percent.

It is not surprising, then, that investors have flocked to the area with the idea of making a quick buck. As many have learned, the profit that could be acquired in this area is immense. The housing market in Houston is in an exciting new territory.

Although Harvey’s effects were devastating, the hurricane also contributed to the Houston housing market’s new rise after Harvey. Houston's inspiring efforts to come together and recover show the resilience of the people there and the city’s strength. The government’s quick response to the tragedy and their overwhelming desire to help the people exhibits the city’s importance on a national, and continental, scale.

Houston housing market remained in recovery mode in 2018 following devastating floods from Hurricane Harvey. People living in more expensive cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco flocked to cheaper living cities such as Houston, Texas.

Many workers were fed up with the costs in these regions and were having difficulty surviving in areas with labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs. All these factors contributed to a significant upward trend in the Houston housing market in 2018.

Good cash flow from Houston investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding a good Houston real estate investment opportunity would be key to your success.

If you invest wisely in Houston real estate, you could secure your future. The best investment is now looking for a rental property that will generate good cash flow. Your best tenants would be the retirees who intend to relocate to Houston and want to purchase property to rent out.

The running costs for owning and managing a Houston rental property should not be high. While hiring a property management company you should expect to give up roughly ten percent of the rent for each property they manage. Remember to factor this loss into your calculations when budgeting for a new rental property.

The three most important factors when buying real estate anywhere are location, location, and location. The location creates desirability. Desirability brings demand. There should be a natural and upcoming high demand for rental properties. Demand would raise the price of your Houston investment property and you should be able to get a good return on your investment over the long term.

The neighborhoods in Houston must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate. The neighborhoods should be close to basic amenities, public services, schools, and shopping malls. A cheaper neighborhood in Houston might not be the best place to live in.

A cheaper neighborhood should be determined by these factors – Overall Cost Of Living, Rent To Income Ratio, and Median Home Value To Income Ratio. Houston's real estate prices are well above average cost compared to national prices.

It depends on how much you are looking to spend and if you are wanting smaller investment properties or larger deals such as duplex and triplex in Class A neighborhoods. The inventory is low, but opportunities are there.

When looking for real estate investment opportunities in Houston or anywhere in the country, the generally accepted standard is to purchase a property that will give you a modest but minimum of 1% profit on your investment.

An example would be: at $120,000 mortgage or investment cost, $1200 per month rental. That would be the ideal equation for example. Even with rent increases, buying a $500,000 investment property in Houston is not going to get you $5000 per month on rent.

The asking price of single-family homes in Houston (on Realtor.com) can start from $29,000 and can go up to $29.5M for a luxury property located in the Westside neighborhood. You can find many new construction houses available for sale in Houston.

Neartown – Montrose has a median listing price of $639,000, making it the most expensive neighborhood in Houston. Alief is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of around $155,000.

Even as Houston's home prices have reached new heights, the market remains attractive to residential real estate investors. As they continue to compete for potential investment properties at the lower end of the market, the challenges for first-time homebuyers will remain.

The homebuyers won’t be able to outbid real estate investors and would end up renting. As with any real estate purchase, act wisely. Evaluate the specifics of the Houston housing market at the time you intend to purchase.

Here are the top 10 Highest Appreciating Houston Neighborhoods Since 2000 (List by Neighborhoodscout.com)

1. Lawndale Wayside South
2. Brittmoore Rd / Shadow Wood Dr
3. Gulfton South
4. Woodland Heights
5. Greater Heights Southeast
6. Greater Heights East
7. Downtown Southeast
8. Near Northside
9. Second Ward East
10. Greenway Upper Kirby Area West

Other Texas Real Estate Investment Markets

Apart from Houston, you can also invest in the housing market of Dallas, TX. If you have decided to invest in Dallas, you can either buy a fixer-upper or you may want to buy a Dallas investment property. This market offers a wide range of turnkey investment properties; you just have to find your tenants to rent out the property.

The El Paso real estate market is another hot market to invest in. El Paso real estate market was ranked 4th in Trulia’s hottest real estate markets to watch in 2018. El Paso’s strong job growth, affordability, low vacancy rates, and high population of young households were pivotal in the ranking process. The cost of living in El Paso is lower than the national average, while the cost of housing is well below that of other major metropolitan areas, including Houston and Austin.

The Central, Cielo Vista, and Mesa Hills areas offer more affordable rental properties for sale, while neighborhoods in the northwestern and eastern parts of the metro area have some of the more expensive housing inventory. The amount residents spend on everyday expenses, such as food and transportation, is slightly less than what the average American pays.

The next one is the San Antonio real estate market. The median home value in San Antonio is $167,600. San Antonio home values have gone up 8.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.5% within the next year. For those who want to invest in rental real estate, the San Antonio real estate market is an ideal location because of its outsized military presence.

Fort Sam Houston is located inside the city limits. Lackland Air Force Base, Randolph Air Force Base, Camp Bullis, and Camp Stanley are located in the immediate vicinity. This means that there is a large population that will almost always rent because they don’t know where they’ll be sent on their next assignment. San Antonio has a dearth of affordable housing because demand is so much greater than the supply.

This has created a large number of renters who need to pay quite a bit to rent apartments or single-family homes. We know there is a lack of housing relative to demand when a balanced market has a 6 month home inventory and San Antonio has only a two-month inventory.

The Austin housing market is one hot place to invest in Texas. It isn’t the largest in the state of Texas, but there are several reasons to consider buying real estate in this city. The Austin real estate market has gained a lot of steam, with home values almost doubling since 2010. The Austin real estate market isn’t as big as Dallas, San Antonio, or Houston.

One of the long-term strengths of Austin is its diverse economy. The Austin real estate market dipped after the layoffs of the Dot-Com boom. They decided to solve the problem by encouraging medical and biotech employers to relocate to the area, too. As of this writing, there are 85 biotech and pharmaceutical companies in Austin.Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.

NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Houston.

Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Houston turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Houston.

Not just limited to Houston or Texas but you can also invest in some of the best real estate markets in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Houston turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.

Let us know which real estate markets you consider best for real estate investing! 

This article shouldn't be used to make real estate or financial decisions. Some of this article's information came from referenced websites. Norada Real Estate Investments provides no express or implied claims, warranties, or guarantees that the material is accurate, reliable, or current. All information should be validated using the below references. Norada Real Estate Investments does not predict the future US housing market. This article educated investors on Houston real estate. Buying a rental property needs research, planning, and budgeting. Not all investments are good. Always do research and consult a real estate investment counselor.

REFERENCES:

Market Data, Trends, and Forecasts
https://www.har.com/content/mls
https://www.zillow.com/houston-tx/home-values
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/tx/houston/real-estate
https://www.littlebighomes.com/real-estate-houston.html
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX/overview

Rental Statistics
https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/tx/houston/
https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-houston-rent-trends/

Foreclosures
https://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/tx/harris-county/houston

Downtown Houston
https://www.downtownhouston.org/development

Houston After Hurricane Harvey
https://www.houstonproperties.com/hurricane-harvey-impact-houston-realestate
https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2017/10/11/following-harvey-houston-sees-home-sales-rebound.html
http://www.chron.com/business/real-estate/article/Houston-real-estate-market-continues-post-Harvey-12341532.php
https://www.npr.org/2017/11/08/562903267/some-real-estate-investors-eager-to-buy-houston-homes-damaged-by-flooding