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Melbourne FL Housing Market Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

February 16, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

If you're wondering what's happening with the current Melbourne housing market trends, here's the short version: as of January 2025, home prices in Melbourne, Florida, are down compared to last year. The median sale price is around $292,000, a decrease of 13.6% year-over-year. While prices have dipped, the number of homes sold has actually increased. Let's explore these dynamics further.

As someone who keeps a close watch on the real estate market, I know how important it is to understand what's happening before you make a move – whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on your investment. Melbourne, Florida, with its beautiful beaches and growing community, is a desirable place to live, but the housing market can be tricky to navigate.

Current Melbourne Housing Market Trends:

Home Sales in Melbourne

Let's start with the number of homes being sold. According to Redfin, in January 2025, there were 86 homes sold in Melbourne. That's a significant increase of 34.4% compared to the same time last year. This jump in sales could indicate several things: perhaps more people are choosing to buy in Melbourne, or maybe there were fewer homes on the market last year. This indicates that demand for the place is still there, but the pricing is more adjusted than before.

Home Prices in Melbourne

The median sale price of a home in Melbourne in January 2025 was $291,500. As mentioned earlier, that's a decrease of 13.6% compared to January 2024. The median sale price per square foot is $196, down 8.2% since last year.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Melbourne?

Yes, based on the most recent data, home prices in Melbourne have dropped year-over-year. This decline could be attributed to a number of factors, including:

Higher Mortgage Rates: As rates increase, buying homes becomes less affordable for people as their repayments increase substantially
Increased Inventory: More homes on the market give buyers more choices and put downward pressure on prices.
Economic Uncertainty: Broader economic concerns can lead to a cooling of the housing market as people become more cautious.

Comparison with Current National Median Price

How does Melbourne stack up against the rest of the country? As of December 2024, the national median home price was $407,500, with a year-over-year change of +6%. So, while the national market is seeing price increases, Melbourne is experiencing a decrease. This shows that real estate is heavily location-dependent, and national trends don't always reflect what's happening on the ground in specific cities.

Here is a table summarizing the price comparison:

Location	Median Sale Price (Jan 2025)	Year-over-Year Change
Melbourne, FL	$291,500	-13.6%
United States	$407,500 (Dec 2024)	+6%

Housing Supply in Melbourne

While I don't have exact figures on the number of homes currently on the market in Melbourne, the fact that sales are up suggests that there's a decent amount of inventory available. More homes on the market mean buyers have more options, which can lead to more negotiation power. This increase in homes with price drops also points towards increased supply. Homes with price drops stand at 40.7%, which is an increase of +10.5% year-over-year.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market in Melbourne?

Based on the data, Melbourne is leaning towards a buyer's market. Homes are selling for about 4% below the list price, and there is a decrease in the sale-to-list price of 0.4% year-over-year to 95.9%. Additionally, the homes are staying on the market for a median of 63 days, implying that the buyers are taking their time and are not forced to put in bids quickly. However, it's also somewhat competitive, so it’s not a completely one-sided scenario. Some homes still receive multiple offers, but it's not as widespread as it might have been in previous years.

Market Trends in Melbourne

Here are some key trends I'm seeing in the Melbourne real estate market:

Price Corrections: After years of rapid price increases, the market is experiencing a correction. This doesn't necessarily mean prices will plummet, but it does suggest a return to more sustainable levels.
Increased Negotiation Power for Buyers: With more homes on the market and prices softening, buyers have more leverage to negotiate.
Focus on Value: Buyers are becoming more discerning and are prioritizing properties that offer good value for money.
Migration Patterns: There is also a significant impact from people moving into and out of Melbourne.
- Inbound: Miami, Orlando, and New York are the top metros where people are moving in from.
- Outbound: Pittsburgh, Greensboro and Johnson City are the top metros where people are moving out to.
Environmental factors: Properties are at risk of severe flooding, wildfire, severe wind events, and heat over the next 30 years

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates, currently hovering around 7% (as of February 2025), are playing a significant role in the housing market. Higher rates mean that it costs more to borrow money, which can reduce demand and put downward pressure on prices.

How High Mortgage Rates Affect Buyers

Reduced Affordability: Higher rates mean buyers can afford less house for the same monthly payment.
Slower Decision-Making: Buyers are taking more time to shop around and compare options.
Increased Scrutiny: Buyers are being more careful about their purchases and are less willing to overpay.

How High Mortgage Rates Affect Sellers

Fewer Buyers: The pool of potential buyers shrinks as affordability decreases.
Longer Time on Market: Houses may take longer to sell as demand cools.
Need for Price Adjustments: Sellers may need to lower their prices to attract buyers.

I believe that while the current market presents challenges, it also offers opportunities. For buyers, the Melbourne housing market is a chance to find better value and negotiate favorable terms. For sellers, it's important to be realistic about pricing and to focus on highlighting the unique features of your property.

In my opinion, long-term, Melbourne remains an attractive place to live. Its strong community, beautiful environment, and growing economy will continue to draw people in. While the market may experience short-term fluctuations, I am confident that Melbourne real estate will remain a solid investment over time.

Melbourne Housing Market Forecast 2025

Melbourne, Florida, has consistently been a hotspot for those seeking a vibrant coastal lifestyle. In 2025, the housing market continues to show signs of strength, but with some interesting nuances.

Looking Ahead: A Forecast of Continued Growth with Nuances

While the exact figures can vary depending on the source, the overall forecast for Melbourne's housing market in 2025 points towards continued growth, albeit at a more measured pace than earlier in the year. Here's a breakdown of anticipated trends:

Modest Price Increases: Experts predict a moderation in the rate of price growth throughout the rest of 2025. The double-digit increases witnessed in the first half of the year are likely to settle into a single-digit range, reflecting a more sustainable market trajectory. This doesn't necessarily signify a slowdown, but rather a stabilization after a period of rapid appreciation.
Inventory Challenges: The limited inventory is expected to persist throughout 2024. This may put a damper on the pace of sales compared to the breakneck speed experienced earlier. However, it's unlikely to cause a significant dip in prices. Sellers may still enjoy a competitive advantage, but buyers may have a bit more breathing room in negotiations.
Market Shift?: As affordability becomes a bigger concern for some buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers, a slight shift towards a more balanced market is a possibility in the latter half of 2024. This doesn't necessarily mean a complete swing towards a buyer's market, but rather a potential increase in inventory levels, giving buyers more options and potentially moderating the level of competition for available properties.

Beyond the Numbers: Factors to Consider

When navigating the Melbourne housing market, it's essential to consider these additional factors:

Interest Rates: Rising interest rates can affect affordability and buyer demand. Monitor this factor closely, especially if you're financing your purchase.
Economic Conditions: The broader economic climate can influence the housing market. Stay informed about local and national trends.
Specific Neighborhoods: Market conditions can vary between neighborhoods. Research the specific area you're interested in to understand its unique trends.

Should You Invest in the Melbourne Real Estate Market?

1. Population Growth and Trends:

Investing in the Melbourne real estate market is promising due to the city's steady population growth and positive trends. The influx of new residents, evidenced by the data, indicates a robust demand for housing, potentially driving property values higher.

2. Economy and Jobs:

Economic Stability: Melbourne's stable economy provides a solid foundation for real estate investment.
Job Opportunities: The city's job market is a key factor, offering diverse employment opportunities that contribute to housing demand.

3. Livability and Other Factors:

Melbourne's high livability index, coupled with its proximity to beaches and natural attractions, makes it an attractive location for residents. A desirable living environment often correlates with a strong and stable real estate market.

4. Rental Property Market Size and Growth:

Market Size: The rental property market in Melbourne is sizable, catering to a diverse tenant population.
Growth Potential: With the city's population growth and economic stability, the rental market is poised for expansion, providing income opportunities for investors.

5. Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing:

Infrastructure Development: Ongoing infrastructure projects can positively impact property values and overall real estate investment potential.
Government Initiatives: Keep an eye on any government incentives or initiatives supporting real estate development and investment in Melbourne.
Market Competitiveness: Melbourne's competitive real estate market suggests a high demand, offering opportunities for appreciation and favorable returns on investment.
Resilience to Market Fluctuations: Analyzing historical data to understand how Melbourne's real estate market has weathered economic downturns can provide insights into its resilience.

Considering Melbourne's population growth, economic stability, livability, expanding rental market, and other positive factors, investing in the Melbourne real estate market appears to be a prudent choice for investors seeking long-term growth and returns.

Read More:

Florida Housing Markets Face Steep Risk: CoreLogic Prediction

August 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

The housing markets in Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL, and two other Florida areas are at very high risk for price crashes in the coming year. As these markets face critical financial turbulence, it's essential for current homeowners, prospective buyers, and investors to navigate the landscape with caution.

Florida Housing Markets at Very High Risk for Price Crash

Key Takeaways

High Risk of Price Decline: Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL, along with Gainesville, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, are noted by CoreLogic as having a 70%-plus probability of experiencing a sharp decline in home prices over the next 12 months.
Market Risk Indicator: The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) is a valuable resource that assesses the health of housing markets, highlighting areas with potential price corrections.
Expectations of Rate Cuts May Fall Short: Although the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates, these adjustments might not be sufficient to stimulate growth in Florida’s cooling housing market.
National Trends Contrast with Local Dangers: Despite the national average of home prices increasing 4.7% year-over-year, Florida markets are becoming outliers, showing signs of distress.

CoreLogic's MRI Identifies At-Risk Florida Markets

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) has placed significant emphasis on the state of Florida’s housing markets, singling out areas like Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne and Gainesville as particularly vulnerable Source: CoreLogic.

Why Are These Markets Vulnerable?

To comprehend why these markets are pegged as high risk, it’s crucial to explore the underlying factors influencing these predictions.

Factors Contributing to High Risk in Florida Markets

1. High Mortgage Rates Compressing Affordability

High mortgage rates have become a defining feature of the current housing market, particularly affecting buyers in Florida. As interest rates soar, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive, shrinking the pool of qualified homebuyers. This decline in affordability is especially poignant in fast-growing areas like Palm Bay and North Port, which saw significant price increases over recent years.

The Real Cost of Borrowing

Back in the pandemic years, aggressive lending and low-rate environments led to soaring prices in Florida. Now that the market has shifted, many potential buyers find themselves priced out. In Palm Bay, for example, the sharp rise in interest rates means that monthly payments for new mortgages are more stressful, leading to fewer people entering the market. This can ultimately result in price declines due to a lack of demand.

2. Consumer Sentiment in Flux

Consumer sentiment impacts real estate as much as hard data. Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, highlights that diminished confidence in the economy and housing market can trigger a wait-and-see strategy among potential buyers. As consumers anticipate price drops, they may be less inclined to commit to purchases.

Fear of Missing Out vs. Market Realities

In a state like Florida, where owning a home is often seen as a key milestone, the fear of missing out can clash with stark market realities. When people perceive potential declines, however, they may choose to delay homebuying decisions. This leads to pent-up demand, but when sentiment swings too far in the direction of caution, it creates downward pressure on home prices.

3. Economic Backdrop and Job Market Pressures

In Florida, the traditional economic engines—such as tourism and agriculture—play a significant role in the real estate market. However, economic uncertainties or slowdowns in key sectors can disrupt consumer confidence and lead to decreased housing demand.

Recent shifts in the job market, influenced by global economic trends, could spell trouble for Florida’s housing markets. If layoffs or reduced hiring become prominent in sectors that sustain Florida’s economy, it will impact housing demand substantially, leading to further price adjustments.

4. Accumulating Inventory

Another critical aspect to monitor is the increasing inventory of homes on the market in Florida. In fast-paced housing markets, inventory levels are a telltale sign of market health. Economic shifts and increasing mortgage rates have led many sellers to list their properties, resulting in overcrowded listings.

Areas like North Port and Sarasota have experienced such surges in inventory, causing sellers to become more competitive on pricing in order to attract buyers. This trend can create a seller's market flipping into a buyer’s market, subsequently pushing home values down.

National Trends and Local Concerns

While the nationwide outlook presents a modest year-over-year increase of 4.7% in home prices as of June 2024, many Florida markets are starting to diverge dramatically from these trends.

Comparative Analysis with Other States

Some areas in the Midwest and Northeast have shown robust growth and steady demand. In contrast, places like Palm Bay and Gainesville are wrestling with different realities. While other markets are thriving, Florida’s economic peculiarities render its housing market vulnerable—especially with factors unique to the state such as high insurance costs and dependency on a few key industries.

What Can You Expect?

With the current environment presenting challenges, what should stakeholders in Florida's housing markets be considering?

For Homeowners

If you own a home in one of the at-risk markets, expect that you may need to adjust your expectations regarding your home’s value. Understanding the dynamics of the current market—especially the potential for price declines—will be crucial if you decide to sell. Working with a knowledgeable realtor who understands local market conditions will be beneficial.

For Prospective Buyers

Prospective homebuyers might find opportunities during this volatile market phase. Even though immediate price declines can be concerning, purchasing at a lower price may allow for long-term gains, especially if you are prepared to hold your investment through potential rough patches.

As you consider your options, make sure to secure financing and investigate grants or programs tailored to first-time homebuyers, especially in states that now face a precarious housing situation.

For Investors

For investors, Florida presents both risk and opportunity. A careful analysis of local dynamics will be essential when considering properties. Investors should focus on identifying distressed properties or markets that are likely to recover more quickly. Buying low and holding through cycles can be advantageous, but be sure to assess the local economy’s fundamentals before making any decisions.

Conclusion

The latest CoreLogic report brings to light the high-risk status of several Florida housing markets, highlighting a pivotal moment for anyone involved in real estate across the state.

By focusing on the local factors underlying these shifts in market dynamics, individuals can better position themselves to either capitalise on opportunities or safeguard their investments against potential downturns.

In a landscape where “location, location, location” still reigns supreme, Florida’s unique housing challenges illustrate the importance of localized knowledge and proactive planning.

As the market evolves, buyers, sellers, and investors alike must pay close attention to regional economic signals and adjust their strategies to navigate the landscape effectively.

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