Thinking about buying or selling a home in Texas? The current Texas housing market trends show a bit of a mixed bag right now. While home sales are up and pending sales are even stronger, suggesting a positive outlook, the number of new listings is decreasing, and interest rates, although falling, are still relatively high. Let's dive into the details.
Current Texas Housing Market Trends
Home Sales
In September 2024, statewide home sales saw a healthy increase of 4.8 percent compared to August. This translates to 26,165 homes sold. However, this increase wasn't uniform across the state. While Houston saw a significant jump (11.6%), San Antonio experienced a decrease (10.3%). Dallas and Austin showed moderate increases. This uneven growth highlights the varied nature of the Texas real estate market.
Home Prices
The median home price in Texas rose slightly in September 2024, climbing 0.9 percent to $337,698. Again, individual cities show different patterns. San Antonio saw a more substantial increase (2.9%), while Austin experienced a small decrease (1.6%). Dallas and Houston saw slight increases. It's crucial to note that the Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a more reliable measure, shows a small month-over-month decrease, though it’s still up year-over-year. This suggests that prices might be stabilizing, rather than continuing a rapid climb.
Housing Supply
The picture of housing supply is a bit complicated. The number of new listings actually fell by 1.1 percent in September, indicating a tighter market. This decrease followed a period of strong growth earlier in the year. This lower supply, combined with increased demand, is a key factor influencing prices and market dynamics. Active listings saw a small increase, but this is still within the overall context of a relatively constrained inventory.
Market Trends
Overall, the Texas housing market exhibits a complex set of trends. We see strong sales and pending sales figures pointing to continued activity, but the reduction in new listings suggests potential challenges for buyers seeking a wider choice. The slight increase in home prices needs to be considered alongside the more accurate Repeat Sales Index, which suggests a slowing in price growth.
Is Texas a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
Currently, it leans slightly towards a seller's market. While sales are strong, the limited supply of new homes gives sellers a degree of leverage. However, the slower price growth indicated by the Repeat Sales Index suggests that the extremely seller-favorable market we saw earlier this year is moderating.
Are Home Prices Dropping?
While some areas saw slight price decreases, home prices aren't drastically dropping statewide. There's a more nuanced picture of price stabilization, rather than a significant downturn. The slight month-over-month decrease in the Repeat Sales Index supports this.
Data Summary:
| Metric | September 2024 Change (MoM) |
|---|---|
| Home Sales | +4.8% |
| Median Home Price | +0.9% |
| New Listings | -1.1% |
| Active Listings | +2.3% |
| Pending Listings | +6.9% |
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center
My Personal Perspective:
Having spent years observing the Texas housing market, I believe we're seeing a transition. The frenetic pace of earlier years is slowing. Buyers have more negotiating power than they did a year ago, but the scarcity of available homes still favors sellers in many areas. This is a dynamic situation, and it's important for both buyers and sellers to stay informed and seek professional advice.
Texas Housing Market Predictions 2025-2026
Is the Texas housing market cooling down? Are home prices going to drop? If you're asking these questions, you're not alone. Many people are wondering what the future holds for real estate in Texas. The good news is, based on recent forecasts, a widespread crash is unlikely, and while some areas might see price dips, others are still projected to grow. The overall picture is nuanced and depends heavily on the specific region you're looking at. So, let's dive in and explore what the experts are predicting for the Texas housing market!
Understanding the Forecast Data
Before we look at specific numbers, it’s important to understand where the data comes from. I've looked at forecasts from Zillow, a reliable source for real estate data. Their predictions focus on the percentage change in home values for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas. It's not about the absolute value of homes, but rather how much prices are expected to rise or fall over a period.
Here's a breakdown of the data:
| Texas Metro Area | Price Change Dec 2024 | Price Change Feb 2025 | Price Change Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas, TX | -0.2% | -0.5% | 1% |
| Houston, TX | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.6% |
| San Antonio, TX | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Austin, TX | -0.5% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| McAllen, TX | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.2% |
| El Paso, TX | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| Killeen, TX | -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| Corpus Christi, TX | -0.1% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| Brownsville, TX | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.3% |
| Beaumont, TX | 0.3% | 0.3% | -2.4% |
| Lubbock, TX | -0.3% | -0.5% | 0.1% |
| Longview, TX | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1% |
| Waco, TX | -0.1% | 0% | 2.4% |
| Amarillo, TX | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| Laredo, TX | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| College Station, TX | 0% | 0% | 0.4% |
| Tyler, TX | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| Abilene, TX | 0% | 0.6% | 1% |
| Midland, TX | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.2% |
| Odessa, TX | 0.3% | 0.1% | -2.7% |
| Wichita Falls, TX | 0.4% | 1.3% | 3.6% |
| Texarkana, TX | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| Sherman, TX | 0% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| San Angelo, TX | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Victoria, TX | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Lufkin, TX | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Athens, TX | -0.3% | -0.3% | 1.3% |
| Huntsville, TX | -0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| Rio Grande City, TX | -0.9% | -1.1% | -3.8% |
| Nacogdoches, TX | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Palestine, TX | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
| Eagle Pass, TX | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3% |
| Kerrville, TX | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| Corsicana, TX | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4% |
| Jacksonville, TX | 0.1% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| Paris, TX | 0% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| Alice, TX | -0.4% | -1.3% | -6.6% |
| Del Rio, TX | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Mount Pleasant, TX | -0.3% | 0% | 1.4% |
| Stephenville, TX | 0.4% | 1.3% | 4.6% |
| El Campo, TX | 0% | -0.4% | -1.8% |
| Gainesville, TX | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| Brownwood, TX | 0% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| Sulphur Springs, TX | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| Bay City, TX | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| Brenham, TX | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.6% |
| Big Spring, TX | -2.5% | -4.9% | -10.1% |
| Plainview, TX | -0.8% | -1.3% | -3% |
| Beeville, TX | 0% | -0.3% | -4.7% |
| Kingsville, TX | -0.1% | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| Mineral Wells, TX | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Fredericksburg, TX | -0.3% | -0.4% | 1% |
| Uvalde, TX | 0.2% | 0.7% | -0.5% |
| Pampa, TX | -0.7% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| Levelland, TX | -0.3% | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| Dumas, TX | 0.5% | 1% | -0.7% |
| Borger, TX | -0.1% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| Raymondville, TX | -0.8% | -2% | -7.5% |
| Port Lavaca, TX | -0.3% | -0.6% | -1.1% |
| Hereford, TX | 0.4% | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| Andrews, TX | 0.2% | 0.1% | -2% |
| Snyder, TX | 0.2% | 0.5% | -2.1% |
| Sweetwater, TX | -1.4% | -3.3% | -7.8% |
| Pecos, TX | -1.3% | -3.3% | -9.9% |
| Zapata, TX | -0.4% | -1.6% | -6.5% |
| Vernon, TX | -1.3% | -2.6% | -5% |
| Lamesa, TX | -0.3% | -1.2% | -5.5% |
What This Forecast Tells Us?
Let's break down what these numbers mean for you as a potential buyer or seller:
- Short-Term Cooling: Many major Texas metros, including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, are expected to see slight dips in home prices by the end of 2024. This cooling is predicted to continue into early 2025, with Austin experiencing the most significant drop (-1.4%) in February. This suggests a potential window for buyers to negotiate a better deal.
- Not a Crash: These are small percentage decreases and definitely not a crash. We are seeing a correction in the market and it is not a sign of a drastic drop. It is just a cooling off.
- Varied Regional Outlook: While some areas see price declines, others show positive growth. Areas like McAllen, El Paso, and Brownsville are predicted to see strong growth through November 2025. These areas might be attractive for investors looking for appreciation.
- Long-Term Growth: By November 2025, most areas are projected to see some growth, even if it’s small. This indicates a potential for the Texas housing market to stabilize and slowly appreciate.
- Smaller Towns, Big Moves: The forecast also shows interesting trends in smaller cities. Stephenville and Corsicana show some significant growth towards the end of 2025. This points to a shift in market dynamics beyond the major urban hubs.
- Cautionary Areas: Some areas, particularly in West Texas, such as Big Spring, Pecos, and Sweetwater, are forecast to see significant price declines. I would personally recommend doing more research if you're looking at these areas to buy or sell.
My Thoughts on the Texas Housing Forecast
Based on these projections, I believe that we're seeing a necessary adjustment in the Texas housing market. The rapid price increases of recent years were not sustainable, and the current slowdown is a sign of a more balanced market.
Here are some personal observations:
- Interest Rates: Mortgage interest rates play a huge role in these trends. If rates remain high, this could continue to put downward pressure on prices. However, if rates begin to drop, we might see some upward push on pricing as well.
- Migration: Texas continues to attract people from other states due to its economy and relatively lower cost of living (when compared to places like California). This migration could create demand which could support prices in the long run.
- Local Economies: Each city has its own unique economic drivers. Areas with strong employment sectors are likely to fare better than those that do not. I strongly advise anyone interested in buying or selling in Texas to research their specific city and neighborhood.
What about 2026?
While the data here stops at November 2025, I think it's highly likely that the overall trends we're seeing now will continue into 2026:
- Continued Gradual Growth: I don’t expect a massive price boom, but I also do not think we'll see a large drop either. I believe that the Texas market should continue to experience gradual growth in most areas.
- More Nuance: The market will be more diverse, with some areas performing exceptionally well, some stabilizing, and a few continuing to struggle. So there will be no “one size fits all” scenario.
- Importance of Local Data: It will be more crucial than ever for buyers and sellers to look at specific local data and not just rely on the broad state trends.
The Takeaway
The Texas housing market is not about to crash, but it is changing. There are opportunities for both buyers and sellers, but you need to be informed and strategic. If you're thinking about making a move, consider:
- Doing your homework: Look at data for your specific area, and research local market conditions.
- Talking to an expert: A real estate agent in your area is the best source of local knowledge.
- Thinking long-term: Real estate is generally a long-term investment. Don't make decisions based solely on short-term fluctuations.
The Texas housing market has always been dynamic, and it's crucial to stay informed about the latest trends and forecasts. By keeping an eye on data and understanding local conditions, you can make wise decisions.
Best Places to Buy a House in Texas in 2025
These are some of the best areas to buy a home in Texas based on home valuations, property taxes, homeownership rates, housing prices, and real estate trends (Niche.com). The ranking is based on statistics from the United States Census Bureau, the FBI, and other sources. Cottonwood Creek South is the best place in Texas to buy a house.
1. Cottonwood Creek South, Richardson, TX: This Richardson neighborhood offers a suburban lifestyle close to the buzz of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex's tech industry.
2. Arapaho, Richardson, TX: Similar to Cottonwood Creek South, Arapaho is another neighborhood in Richardson offering a quieter suburban experience with access to the city's amenities.
3. Lakeside City, TX: Just south of Richardson, Lakeside City is a family-friendly town known for its good schools.
4. Fulshear, TX: This Fort Bend County town provides a mix of rural and suburban living with easy access to Houston. Fulshear is ideal if you want a quieter area while staying close to the city.
5. Canyon Creek South, Richardson, TX: Yet another Richardson neighborhood on the list, Canyon Creek South offers a suburban setting near the opportunities of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.
6. Heights Park, Richardson, TX: Rounding out the Richardson trio, Heights Park provides a suburban atmosphere with access to the amenities of a big city.
7. Shady Hollow, TX: As a suburb of Austin, Shady Hollow blends small-town charm with the excitement of the state capital. It's a popular choice for families and young professionals.
8. Red Lick, TX: Located in Bowie County, Red Lick is a more rural area with a small-town feel. This is a good option for those seeking an affordable place to live with plenty of space.
9. Woodway, TX: Situated near Waco, Woodway is a growing suburb known for its peaceful atmosphere and scenic Hill Country views.
10. Timberbrook, Plano, TX: This Plano neighborhood offers a suburban lifestyle with easy access to the amenities of both Plano and Dallas. Plano is another major city in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, known for its strong economy and good schools.
Texas Cities with Highest Home Price Appreciation
Texas boasts a diverse landscape, and these 10 cities reflect that variety. These are the top ten cities in Texas that have had the highest real estate appreciation since 2000 (Neighborhoodscout).
- Westworth Village: This could be a smaller town or an affluent suburb that has seen significant growth in property values since 2000.
- Gustine: Perhaps a rural town or a smaller city, Gustine's popularity surge has likely driven up housing prices.
- Balmorhea: Its unique location near a natural spring or recreational area might be the reason behind Balmorhea's increased real estate interest.
- Garden City: This could be a growing city or one that's been revitalized, attracting new residents and boosting property values.
- Mico: Potentially a smaller community or a hidden gem, Mico might have experienced a surge in interest due to affordability or a specific lifestyle factor.
- Runge: This rural town could be experiencing growth due to its proximity to a larger city or changing economic factors.
- Granger: Similar to Runge, Granger might be a growing rural community benefiting from its location or new development.
- Encinal: Potentially a historic town or one with natural beauty, Encinal's real estate market might have boomed due to its unique appeal.
- Falls City: This could be a smaller city undergoing revitalization or attracting new residents for specific reasons, leading to rising property values.
- Wingate: Potentially a rural town or a lakeside community, Wingate might have seen a rise in real estate interest due to its location or changing lifestyle preferences.
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