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South Florida Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

February 12, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

South Florida Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

Thinking about buying or selling a home in South Florida? You're probably wondering what's going to happen with prices. Well, the South Florida housing market is expected to remain strong through 2025 and 2026. While predicting the future is never an exact science, all signs point to continued, but potentially moderating, price appreciation and healthy sales activity across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Let's dive into the details and see what's driving this forecast.

South Florida Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

Why South Florida? The Allure Remains Strong

Before we jump into numbers, it's important to understand why South Florida is such a desirable place to live.

  • Sunshine and Lifestyle: Obvious, right? But the year-round sunshine, beaches, and outdoor lifestyle are a huge draw for people from colder climates.
  • Tax Benefits: Florida has no state income tax, which is a major incentive for high-income earners and businesses.
  • Job Growth: While economic conditions fluctuate, South Florida has seen solid job growth in recent years, particularly in sectors like technology, finance, and healthcare.
  • International Appeal: Miami, in particular, is a global hub, attracting buyers and investors from Latin America, Europe, and beyond.
  • Relative Value (Compared to Other Global Cities): Okay, South Florida isn't exactly “cheap,” but compared to cities like New York, London, or Hong Kong, you get more bang for your buck in terms of real estate.

The Latest Numbers: What's Happening Now (Early 2025)?

Let's break down the recent trends in the South Florida housing market based on data from the MIAMI Association of Realtors:

  • Overall Sales: In December 2024, Miami-Dade saw a 2.9% increase in total home sales year-over-year. Broward saw single-family home sales rise by 8.4%, and Palm Beach County experienced a 6.5% increase in single-family home sales.
  • Single-Family Homes: Miami-Dade single-family home sales ended 2024 with 10,738 transactions, a 1.9% increase compared to 2023.
  • Condos: Condo sales are a bit more mixed. Miami-Dade condo sales were down slightly, likely due to financing challenges, but luxury condo sales (over $1 million) increased significantly (over 50%!). Broward condo transactions decreased by 8.7% year-over-year in December 2024, and Palm Beach County condo transactions decreased 18.4% year-over-year in December 2024
  • Prices: Median sale prices continue to rise. In December 2024:
    • Miami-Dade single-family homes increased 10.7% year-over-year to $675,000.
    • Broward single-family homes increased 8.8% year-over-year to $620,000.
    • Palm Beach County single-family homes increased 7.3% year-over-year to $622,500.
  • Inventory: Inventory is increasing, but still below pre-pandemic levels. This means there are more homes on the market than a year ago, but still not enough to satisfy demand.
  • Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell compared to last year, which is a sign that the market is cooling slightly.
  • Cash Sales: South Florida has a high percentage of cash buyers, especially compared to the national average. This is driven by international buyers and people relocating from more expensive markets.

Here's a quick recap in table form:

County Single-Family Home Sales (Dec 2024 YoY) Condo Sales (Dec 2024 YoY) Median Single-Family Home Price (Dec 2024 YoY) Median Condo Price (Dec 2024 YoY)
Miami-Dade +9.9% -2.6% +10.7% ($675,000) +4.9% ($430,000)
Broward +8.4% -8.7% +8.8% ($620,000) +3% ($283,250)
Palm Beach +6.5% -18.4% +7.3% ($622,500) +4.1% ($317,500)

Forecast 2025-2026: What to Expect

So, what does all this mean for the next couple of years? Here's my take:

  • Continued Price Appreciation, But Slower: I expect prices to continue rising in 2025 and 2026, but at a slower pace than we've seen in the past few years. The double-digit price increases of 2021-2023 were unsustainable. A more moderate growth rate is healthier for the market in the long run. Realtor.com ranked Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL as the No. 2 Top Housing Market in the U.S. for 2025, forecasting a 24% year-over-year increase in sales and a 9% increase in median sale prices for 2025.
  • Mortgage Rates Will Be Key: Mortgage rates are a huge factor. If rates stay high (above 7%), it will put downward pressure on prices. If they start to fall to the mid 6% range, as some economists predict, it could fuel more demand and keep prices elevated.
  • Inventory Will Gradually Increase: I think we'll continue to see more homes come onto the market, which will give buyers more choices and help to moderate price increases.
  • Condos: A Mixed Bag: The condo market will likely continue to be more challenging than the single-family home market, especially for older buildings that lack FHA financing options. New construction condos in desirable locations will likely hold their value well. The lack of Federal Housing Administration loans for a large number of existing Miami condominium buildings is preventing further market strengthening. Of the 2,397 condominium buildings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, only 21 are approved for FHA loans, according to statistics from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Just 0.9% of South Florida condo buildings are approved for FHA loans.
  • The “Live Local Act” Could Help with Affordability: This Florida law encourages developers to build more affordable housing by offering incentives. If it's successful, it could help to address the housing shortage and make South Florida more accessible to a wider range of people.
  • Location, Location, Location: As always, location will be crucial. Waterfront properties, homes in top school districts, and areas with vibrant downtowns will likely hold their value best.

Factors That Could Change the Forecast

It's important to remember that economic forecasts are just predictions. Several factors could significantly impact the South Florida housing market in 2025-2026:

  • A Major Economic Downturn: A recession could lead to job losses and decreased demand for housing, putting downward pressure on prices.
  • Significant Increase in New Construction: If developers build a lot more housing, it could flood the market and lead to price declines.
  • Changes in Migration Patterns: If fewer people move to South Florida, demand could soften.
  • Major Policy Changes: New regulations or tax laws could impact the real estate market.
  • Natural Disasters: Hurricanes or other natural disasters could damage property and disrupt the market.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

  • For Buyers: Don't try to time the market perfectly. Focus on finding a home that meets your needs and budget. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, and be prepared to move quickly when you find the right property.
  • For Sellers: Price your home competitively, and make sure it's in good condition. Work with an experienced real estate agent who knows the local market.
  • For Everyone: Be patient, do your research, and don't make any rash decisions.

The Bottom Line

The South Florida housing market is expected to remain relatively strong in 2025 and 2026, but with more moderate price appreciation than we've seen in recent years. Mortgage rates, inventory levels, and economic conditions will be key factors to watch. Whether you're buying or selling, it's important to work with an experienced real estate professional who can help you navigate the market.

Will the South Florida Housing Market Crash?

The housing market in South Florida is still strong and unlikely to crash. Several factors drive housing demand in South Florida:

Climate: South Florida has a warm, tropical climate that attracts many retirees and snowbirds, who are looking for a place to escape the cold weather during the winter months. This demand for seasonal housing helps to drive up housing prices in the region.

Tourism: South Florida is home to many popular tourist destinations such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach. The steady flow of tourists in the area helps to boost the economy and creates a demand for both short-term and long-term rental properties.

Job Market: South Florida has a diverse economy, anchored by industries such as finance, healthcare, and real estate. The strong job market in the region helps to attract new residents and supports the demand for housing.

International Buyers: South Florida is a popular destination for international buyers, particularly those from Latin America and Europe. The strong demand from these buyers helps to drive up housing prices in the region.

Demographics: South Florida's population is growing and is expected to continue to grow in the future, which is a driver for housing demand. Additionally, the increasing population of retirees in the area is also driving demand for housing.

Bottom line: We're not seeing any major home price decline or crash in the South Florida housing market just yet. The current supply of homes in South Florida still favors sellers. In the long run, it is hoped that higher interest rates will result in more days on the market (which gives buyers more choices). The price rise will ultimately slow as a result of higher interest rates. With the deceleration of price rise, total inventory might expand in the future. Historically, inventory grows six months after interest rates rise, but today’s market is unlike any other.

Hottest South Florida Housing Markets for Buyers in 2025

South Florida is a vast region with diverse housing markets, and each area has its unique character and appeal. We'll focus on several prominent regions within South Florida, highlighting their key features and analyzing their potential for buyers:

1. Miami-Dade County: Urban Hub with Coastal Charm

Miami-Dade County is the heart of South Florida, boasting a vibrant urban lifestyle, pristine beaches, and a cosmopolitan atmosphere. It encompasses major cities like Miami, Coral Gables, and Key Biscayne.

Key Features:

  • Diverse Housing Options: Miami-Dade offers a wide spectrum of housing choices, from luxury waterfront condos to historic bungalows and suburban homes.
  • Thriving Economy: A robust economy fueled by tourism, finance, and technology industries drives demand for housing.
  • Cultural Hub: Miami-Dade is a melting pot of cultures, with renowned museums, art galleries, and world-class dining.

Best Neighborhoods for Buyers:

  • Coral Gables: Known for its elegant architecture, lush greenery, and upscale lifestyle, Coral Gables offers a mix of single-family homes and luxury condos.
  • Coconut Grove: This vibrant neighborhood features waterfront homes, trendy restaurants, and a vibrant arts scene.
  • Downtown Miami: The heart of the city offers high-rise condos, luxury residences, and a dynamic urban lifestyle.

Key Considerations:

  • High Cost of Living: Miami-Dade County has a higher cost of living compared to other parts of South Florida.
  • Traffic Congestion: Traffic can be heavy, especially during peak hours.
  • Hurricane Risk: Miami-Dade is located in a hurricane-prone region.

Miami-Dade County offers a vibrant and exciting lifestyle, but buyers need to be prepared for a competitive market and a higher cost of living. By focusing on specific neighborhoods with favorable price points and amenities, you can find value in this dynamic market.

2. Broward County: Balance of Urban and Suburban

Broward County sits north of Miami-Dade and provides a more balanced experience, blending urban amenities with a suburban feel. It encompasses cities like Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, and Plantation.

Key Features:

  • Diverse Housing Stock: From waterfront condos in Fort Lauderdale to spacious single-family homes in Weston, Broward County offers a wide range of housing choices.
  • Strong Economy: A diversified economy with sectors like tourism, healthcare, and finance drives economic growth and supports the housing market.
  • Beautiful Beaches: Broward County boasts pristine beaches, including the iconic Fort Lauderdale Beach.

Best Neighborhoods for Buyers:

  • Fort Lauderdale: This vibrant city offers a mix of waterfront condos, historic homes, and upscale neighborhoods like Las Olas.
  • Plantation: Known for its family-friendly atmosphere, well-maintained parks, and excellent schools, Plantation is a popular choice for growing families.
  • Parkland: This upscale community offers large lots, luxurious homes, and a peaceful suburban lifestyle.

Key Considerations:

  • Lower Cost of Living: Compared to Miami-Dade, Broward County offers a more affordable cost of living.
  • Accessibility: Excellent highway access and a well-developed public transportation system make commuting easier.
  • Growing Population: The county's growing population might increase competition for housing in the future.

Broward County provides a balance of urban and suburban living, offering a more affordable option while still providing access to South Florida's amenities. By exploring diverse neighborhoods with various price points, buyers can find value and opportunity in this dynamic market.

3. Palm Beach County: Luxury Living and Coastal Charm

Palm Beach County, located north of Broward County, is known for its luxury homes, pristine beaches, and upscale lifestyle. It encompasses cities like West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, and Palm Beach Gardens.

Key Features:

  • High-End Housing: Palm Beach County is renowned for its luxurious waterfront estates, golf course communities, and exclusive gated communities.
  • Strong Economic Growth: A booming economy fueled by finance, healthcare, and technology sectors drives growth in the housing market.
  • World-Class Amenities: Palm Beach County boasts world-class shopping, dining, entertainment, and cultural experiences.

Best Neighborhoods for Buyers:

  • Palm Beach Gardens: This upscale community offers luxury homes, championship golf courses, and world-class amenities.
  • Boca Raton: Known for its beautiful beaches, upscale shopping, and vibrant nightlife, Boca Raton offers a mix of high-rise condos and single-family homes.
  • Jupiter: This charming town boasts pristine beaches, waterfront homes, and a relaxed coastal lifestyle.

Key Considerations:

  • High Housing Prices: Palm Beach County has some of the highest housing prices in South Florida.
  • Tax Rates: Property taxes can be higher compared to other counties.
  • Hurricane Risk: Palm Beach County is situated on the Atlantic coast and is susceptible to hurricanes.

Palm Beach County offers an unparalleled luxury lifestyle and pristine beaches but comes at a premium price. Buyers looking for high-end homes in a sophisticated setting will find this region attractive, but they must be prepared for the high cost of living.

4. Treasure Coast: Affordable Coastal Living

The Treasure Coast, located north of Palm Beach County, offers a more relaxed coastal lifestyle with affordability. It encompasses cities like Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie, and Stuart.

Key Features:

  • Affordable Housing: The Treasure Coast offers more affordable housing options compared to other regions in South Florida.
  • Beautiful Beaches: The Treasure Coast boasts pristine beaches with a less crowded atmosphere.
  • Natural Beauty: The region is known for its diverse ecosystems, including the Indian River Lagoon and numerous parks.

Best Neighborhoods for Buyers:

  • Vero Beach: This charming city offers a mix of waterfront homes, historic neighborhoods, and a relaxed coastal lifestyle.
  • Port St. Lucie: Known for its golf courses, parks, and affordable housing options, Port St. Lucie attracts families and retirees.
  • Stuart: This historic waterfront town offers a mix of charming homes, waterfront properties, and a vibrant downtown area.

Key Considerations:

  • Limited Job Growth: The Treasure Coast has a smaller economy with fewer job opportunities compared to other regions.
  • Less Developed Infrastructure: Some areas might have limited public transportation or access to amenities.
  • Hurricane Risk: The Treasure Coast is located on the Atlantic coast and is susceptible to hurricanes.

The Treasure Coast offers affordable coastal living with a relaxed atmosphere, but buyers need to be aware of the limited job market and less developed infrastructure. This region is ideal for those seeking a slower pace of life with access to beaches and natural beauty.

5. The Keys: Tropical Paradise with a Price Tag

The Florida Keys, a chain of islands extending south from mainland Florida, offer a unique tropical paradise with stunning turquoise waters, coral reefs, and a laid-back island vibe.

Key Features:

  • Unique Island Lifestyle: The Keys offer a distinct island lifestyle with fishing, boating, and water sports as key activities.
  • Natural Beauty: The Keys boast pristine beaches, diverse marine life, and stunning sunsets.
  • Luxury Destinations: Certain islands, like Key West, are renowned for their luxury resorts and exclusive properties.

Best Neighborhoods for Buyers:

  • Key West: This historic island is renowned for its colorful architecture, lively nightlife, and world-class dining.
  • Marathon: Known for its fishing and boating activities, Marathon offers a more relaxed island lifestyle.
  • Islamorada: This fishing village boasts beautiful beaches, upscale resorts, and a vibrant atmosphere.

Key Considerations:

  • Extremely High Housing Prices: The Keys have some of the highest housing prices in South Florida.
  • Limited Job Market: The Keys rely heavily on tourism and have limited job opportunities in other sectors.
  • Hurricane Risk: The Keys are located in a hurricane-prone region and are vulnerable to storm surge.

The Florida Keys offer a unique tropical paradise, but buyers must be prepared for extremely high housing prices, limited job market, and hurricane risk. This region is ideal for those seeking an island lifestyle with luxury amenities and stunning natural beauty.

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Read More:

  • South Florida Housing Market: A Crossroads for Homebuyers
  • Florida Real Estate: 9 Housing Markets Predicted to Rise in 2025
  • Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026
  • 3 Florida Housing Markets Are Again on the Brink of a Crash
  • Florida Housing Market Predictions 2025: Insights Across All Cities
  • Florida Housing Market Trends: Rent Growth Falls Behind Nation
  • When Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, South Florida Housing Market, South Florida real estate market

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