Thinking about buying or selling a home in Tulsa? You're in the right place. Let's dive into what's happening right now and what we can expect for the Tulsa housing market in 2025 and beyond. My take is that while things have cooled a bit, 2025 looks promising for a more balanced Tulsa housing market.

Current Tulsa Housing Market Trends

So, what's the deal with the Tulsa housing market right now? It feels like things have shifted from that super-fast, everyone-bidding-over-asking-price situation we saw a while back. Let's break down the latest numbers to get a clearer picture.

Home Sales and Prices: A Little Cooler, But Not Cold

According to Realtor.com, in September, the median listing price for homes in Tulsa was $269,900. Now, this was actually a decrease from the month before. This might sound a little alarming, but it’s important to see this in context.

Usually, September is a time when home prices per square foot in Tulsa tend to go up. However, the most recent data showed a 1.8% drop in price per square foot compared to August. To give you some perspective, across the entire U.S., the price per square foot went down by 0.8%. This means the price changes in our city are a bit more noticeable than the national average.

What does this tell us? It suggests that the buyer's market is getting a bit stronger. Sellers might not be getting those record-breaking offers as easily, and buyers might have a little more room to negotiate.

Housing Inventory: More Homes on the Market

One of the biggest indicators of how a housing market is doing is the housing inventory – that’s just the number of homes available for sale.

In September, Realtor.com reported that there were 1,173 homes for sale in Tulsa. This was a 2.1% increase from the month before. Even more interesting, this was 3.9% more homes available than at the same time last year.

Nationwide, the active inventory grew by a smaller amount, just 0.2%. So, in Tulsa, we’re seeing a more significant jump in the number of homes available. When there are more homes to choose from, it naturally gives buyers more options and can help slow down the rapid price increases.

Time on Market: Homes Taking a Little Longer to Sell

Another key trend we're seeing is how long homes are staying on the market before they sell. In September, homes in Tulsa took an average of 53 days to sell.

This is just one day longer than the previous month and three days longer than the same month last year. While this difference might seem small, it adds up. Nationally, homes spent an average of 62 days on the market in September.

This slowdown in sales speed, coupled with more homes on the market, reinforces the idea that the Tulsa housing market is becoming more balanced. It's still a pretty good market for sellers, but buyers are finding themselves with a bit more breathing room and time to make decisions.

Here's a quick look at how Tulsa stacked up in September, based on Realtor.com data:

Metric	Tulsa (September)	U.S. Average (September)
Median List Price	$269,900	N/A
% Change MoM (Price/Sq Ft)	-1.8%	-0.8%
Active Inventory	1,173	1,100,407
% Change MoM (Inventory)	+2.1%	+0.2%
% Change YoY (Inventory)	+3.9%	N/A
Average Days on Market	53 days	62 days

Source: Realtor.com

As you can see, Tulsa’s inventory is growing faster than the national average, and homes are selling quicker than the national average, though they are taking a bit longer than they did last year.

Tulsa Housing Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

Now, let's talk about the future. What does all this mean for the Tulsa housing market in the coming months and into next year? I've been watching these trends closely, and I’ve got some insights.

Housing Market Outlook for Tulsa

Zillow’s data gives us some interesting predictions. As of September 2025, the average home value in the Tulsa metro area is projected to be around $245,894. This is up 1.9% over the past year.

Looking ahead, Zillow’s forecast for the Tulsa MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) looks like this:

• October 2025: A projected 0.3% increase in home values.
• December 2025: A projected 0.8% increase in home values.
• September 2026 (1-Year Forecast): A projected 2.4% increase in home values.

This suggests a gradual, steady appreciation for home values in Tulsa. It's not the explosive growth we might have seen in previous years, but it’s definitely positive and stable growth.

Comparing Tulsa to Other Areas in Oklahoma

It's always good to see how Tulsa compares to its neighbors. Here's a look at how Zillow's forecast for Tulsa stacks up against other Oklahoma cities:

Region	October 2025 Forecast	December 2025 Forecast	September 2026 Forecast
Tulsa, OK	0.3%	0.8%	2.4%
Oklahoma City, OK	0.3%	0.8%	2.1%
Lawton, OK	0.5%	0.8%	2.4%
Stillwater, OK	0.4%	0.7%	1.5%
Shawnee, OK	0.6%	1.3%	3.9%
Muskogee, OK	0%	0%	1.7%
Enid, OK	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Ardmore, OK	0.3%	0.3%	2%
Bartlesville, OK	0.6%	1%	3.2%

Source: Zillow Forecast Data

What this table shows me is that Tulsa's forecast is pretty much in line with cities like Oklahoma City and Lawton. Some cities, like Shawnee and Bartlesville, are projected to see a bit stronger growth. Enid, on the other hand, shows very little projected growth. Overall, Tulsa is looking at a predictable and steady increase.

Comparing Tulsa to the U.S. Housing Market Forecast

Now, let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture for the entire U.S. housing market.

Zillow's Key Predictions for the U.S.:

• Home Value Growth: Zillow expects home value growth to be flat in late 2025 and early 2026, but then it's expected to recover and rise to nearly 1.9% by August 2026. This echoes what we're seeing in Tulsa – a period of stability followed by a gentle uptick.
• Home Sales: They predict home sales will finish 2025 at 4.07 million, which is a bit higher than 2024. This suggests an increase in the number of homes changing hands.
• Rents: Rents are expected to continue cooling down, with lower growth rates than in recent years.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun's Optimistic Outlook for the U.S.:

Lawrence Yun, a respected voice in the real estate world, shares an optimistic view. He believes “brighter days may be on the horizon” for the U.S. housing market. His key forecasts include:

• Existing Home Sales: Expected to rise 6% in 2025 and then accelerate by 11% in 2026. This is a strong indicator of a more active market.
• New Home Sales: Projected to climb by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026. This is great news for addressing the shortage of homes.
• Median Home Prices: Forecasted to continue increasing modestly, with a projected rise of 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. This is a healthy, sustainable pace.
• Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dip to 6.1% in 2026. Yun calls these rates a “magic bullet” because they directly impact how much buyers can afford. Lower rates make homes more accessible.

So, what does this mean for Tulsa? The national trends suggest a market that's moving towards more stability and predictable growth, with increased sales activity driven by more affordable mortgage rates. Given Tulsa's current trends, it seems likely to follow this national path, perhaps with slightly more moderate appreciation than the national average in some cases, but still a positive direction.

Will Home Prices Drop in Tulsa? Can it Crash?

Based on the data and forecasts from Realtor.com, Zillow, and NAR, a major home price crash in Tulsa seems unlikely. Here's why:

• Steady Appreciation: While prices aren't skyrocketing, they are projected to continue increasing modestly in the coming years. This isn't the sign of a market about to collapse.
• Increased Inventory, Not Oversupply: The rise in housing inventory is helping to balance the market, giving buyers more options. This is a healthy adjustment, not a sign of too many homes with too few buyers.
• Strong Demand Fundamentals: Even with higher interest rates, there’s still underlying demand for housing. People need places to live, and for many, homeownership is still a primary goal.
• Mortgage Rate Predictions: The forecast for mortgage rates to gradually decline in 2025 and 2026 is a significant factor. As rates drop, affordability improves, which will support demand and prevent sharp price drops.

Instead of a crash, I anticipate a period of more sustainable growth. The days of bidding wars and homes selling in hours might be less common, leading to a more relaxed experience for both buyers and sellers.

A Possible Forecast for Late 2026 and Early 2027

Looking further out, if the current trends continue and mortgage rates remain in the predicted range, I believe the Tulsa housing market will experience continued, steady appreciation.

• Late 2026: We could see home values in Tulsa increase by around 2.5% to 3.5% year-over-year. This would be a continuation of the positive trend, possibly picking up a bit more steam as the economy firms up and more buyers feel comfortable with their purchasing power.
• Early 2027: The market should continue to be relatively stable. We might see home sales volumes increase further as more people capitalize on better affordability. Home price growth could remain in the 3% to 4% range, reflecting a healthy, balanced market where supply and demand are in better alignment.

Should You Invest in Tulsa's Real Estate Market?

If you're considering investing in real estate, Tulsa could be a good option to explore. Here are some of the top reasons why investing in Tulsa real estate could be a wise choice, as well as potential drawbacks to keep in mind.

Top Reasons to Invest in Tulsa Real Estate:

• Strong Market Growth: Over the past year, the Tulsa housing market has shown impressive growth, with the average home value increasing by 1.9% to reach $245,894. The median days to pending is relatively fast, indicating a high demand for homes.
• Affordable Prices: Compared to other major cities, Tulsa offers affordable real estate prices, making it an attractive option for investors seeking high rental yield and positive cash flow.
• Diverse Economy: Tulsa's economy is diverse, with a mix of industries that includes energy, healthcare, and aerospace. This diversity helps to create a stable job market, which can lead to increased demand for housing and potential appreciation in property values.
• Favorable Rental Market: Tulsa's rental market is strong, with a high demand for rental properties and relatively low vacancy rates. This creates an opportunity for investors to generate passive income through rental properties. The massive student market in Tulsa can be a good investment opportunity due to the presence of multiple colleges and universities in the area, including the University of Tulsa, Oral Roberts University, Oklahoma State University, and Spartan School of Aeronautics. With a diverse student population, investing in real estate aimed at students can create a stable portfolio, as returns and overall property values are not tied to the popularity of just one school.
• Tax Benefits: Oklahoma offers several tax incentives for real estate investors, including low property taxes and exemptions for certain types of properties.

Potential Drawbacks to Keep in Mind:

• Weather Conditions: Tulsa is located in “Tornado Alley,” which means it is prone to severe weather conditions, including tornadoes and hail storms. This can lead to damage to properties and increased insurance costs.
• Dependent on Oil Industry: While Tulsa's economy is diverse, it is still heavily dependent on the oil industry, which can be volatile and subject to fluctuations in global oil prices.
• Limited Appreciation Potential: While Tulsa's real estate market is growing, it may not appreciate as quickly as markets in larger cities with stronger job growth and population growth.
• Limited Investment Options: While there are opportunities to invest in residential properties, the options for commercial real estate investment may be more limited in Tulsa.

Overall, investing in Tulsa real estate could be a good option for investors seeking affordable prices, strong rental demand, and a stable job market. However, investors should carefully consider the potential drawbacks and risks associated with investing in the region, including severe weather conditions and dependence on the oil industry.