Thinking about buying or selling a house in Oklahoma? You really need to know what's going on in the Oklahoma housing market. It's not just about money; it's about your future and making smart decisions. The market's always changing, so let's look at what's happening around the state right now.
Oklahoma Housing Market Trends: A Deep Dive for 2024
The Oklahoma housing market is in a state of evolution. While home prices continue to climb, the pace of growth is slowing, and inventory is increasing. This signals a potential shift towards a more balanced market with less intense competition. For buyers, this presents an opportunity to find homes with less pressure. For sellers, it means adapting to a more measured market and potentially adjusting pricing expectations.
Home Sales in Oklahoma: A Slowdown in Momentum?
The Oklahoma housing market, like many others, has seen some shifts. While home prices are still climbing, the number of homes sold is showing a decline. According to Redfin data from September 2024, the number of homes sold fell by 11.5% compared to the same time last year.
This signals a slight cooling of the market's previous feverish pace. This isn't necessarily a bad thing—it might suggest a move towards a more balanced buyer's and seller's market. While a decrease in sales might worry some, it could mean less intense competition for buyers.
- September 2024 Data:
- Homes Sold: 3,587 (-11.5% year-over-year)
This slowdown could be attributed to several factors. Rising interest rates, while not as dramatic as in previous years, still influence affordability. Also, buyers might be adopting a more cautious approach after a period of rapid price increases.
Home Prices: Steady Climb, but at a Slower Pace
Despite the decrease in sales, home prices in Oklahoma continue to rise. In September 2024, the median sale price was $245,000, a 5.8% increase year-over-year. While growth continues, it's important to note that this is a slower rate of increase compared to the previous year's figures. This suggests a possible leveling off – a trend we'll explore further in subsequent sections.
- September 2024 Data:
- Median Sale Price: $245,000 (+5.8% year-over-year)
This steady price appreciation showcases Oklahoma's continuing appeal as a place to live and invest in real estate, indicating a generally healthy market. However, potential buyers should remain mindful of the gradual pace of price increases and potentially rising interest rates.
Housing Supply: More Homes on the Market
One of the most significant shifts in the Oklahoma housing market is the increase in housing supply. In September 2024, there were 18,377 homes for sale, a substantial 19.4% increase year-over-year. This increased inventory offers buyers more choices and potentially less pressure to make quick decisions in a competitive bidding war.
- September 2024 Data:
- Homes for Sale: 18,377 (+19.4% year-over-year)
- Newly Listed Homes: 4,722 (+1.5% year-over-year)
- Months of Supply: 4 (+1 year-over-year)
This increase is a game-changer for buyers. For years, Oklahoma saw a low supply of homes, creating a seller's market. Now, we are seeing a gradual shift towards a more balanced environment, giving buyers more negotiating power. The increased months of supply—a measure of how long it would take to sell all available homes at the current sales rate—further supports this notion.
Market Trends: A Balancing Act
The Oklahoma housing market trends point towards a market transition. The combination of slowing sales, rising supply, and continued (but slower) price appreciation suggests a shift away from the intensely competitive seller's market we've seen in recent years. This isn't necessarily a sign of a downturn, but rather a move towards a more sustainable and predictable market.
Metric | September 2024 | Year-over-Year Change |
---|---|---|
Homes Sold | 3,587 | -11.5% |
Median Sale Price | $245,000 | +5.8% |
Homes for Sale | 18,377 | +19.4% |
Homes Sold Above List Price | 21.0% | -3.8 percentage points |
Homes with Price Drops | 30.0% | +2.3 percentage points |
Sale-to-List Price | 97.4% | -0.33 percentage points |
This transition has implications for both buyers and sellers. Buyers now have more options and less pressure to offer over the asking price. Sellers, however, need to be realistic about pricing and expect homes to stay on the market a bit longer.
Top 10 Metros in Oklahoma with Fastest Growing Sales Prices (September 2024)
Some areas are experiencing faster price growth than others. Here's a look at the top 10 metros in Oklahoma with the most significant year-over-year increases in median sales price:
City | Year-over-Year Growth (%) |
---|---|
Ada, OK | 48.7% |
Midwest City, OK | 38.7% |
Chickasha, OK | 28.8% |
Newcastle, OK | 18.9% |
Lawton, OK | 18.3% |
Norman, OK | 17.8% |
Del City, OK | 12.6% |
Muskogee, OK | 11.0% |
Broken Arrow, OK | 10.5% |
Claremore, OK | 9.4% |
Remember that these are localized trends. Prices in specific areas can vary greatly.
Oklahoma Housing Demand: Competition Levels
The level of competition in the Oklahoma housing market has also shifted. While still active, it is less intense than in previous years. In September 2024, only 21.0% of homes sold above the asking price, a significant decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. This suggests that bidding wars are becoming less frequent.
- September 2024 Data (Redfin):
- Homes Sold Above List Price: 21.0% (-3.8 percentage points year-over-year)
- Homes with Price Drops: 30.0% (+2.3 percentage points year-over-year)
- Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 97.4% (-0.33 percentage points year-over-year)
Conversely, a higher percentage of homes are experiencing price reductions, suggesting that sellers might need to adjust their pricing strategies to attract buyers in this changing market.
Oklahoma Housing Market Forecast 2024-2025
The latest Oklahoma housing market forecast is something you definitely need to understand. The Sooner State's real estate scene is dynamic, and knowing what the future holds can be a game-changer. Let's dive in and explore what's happening now and what experts predict for the coming months and years.
As of September 30th, 2024, the Oklahoma housing market shows some interesting trends. The average home value sits at $205,646, a 3.2% increase from last year. Homes are going pending (meaning they're under contract) surprisingly fast—around 24 days. This indicates a still-competitive market, though possibly less frenzied than in recent years.
Let's look at some key numbers:
Statistic | Value | Date |
---|---|---|
For Sale Inventory | 18,519 | September 30, 2024 |
New Listings | 4,876 | September 30, 2024 |
Median Sale to List Ratio | 0.99 | August 31, 2024 |
Median Sale Price | $226,000 | August 31, 2024 |
Median List Price | $278,368 | September 30, 2024 |
Percent of Sales Over List | 22.6% | August 31, 2024 |
Percent of Sales Under List | 54.4% | August 31, 2024 |
This data paints a picture of a market that's still active, but showing signs of slowing down from the rapid pace seen during the peak of the pandemic. The high percentage of sales under list price suggests buyers have more negotiating power now than they did a few years ago.
MSA-Level Forecast: A Deeper Dive into Oklahoma's Cities
To get a more precise picture, let's look at the forecast for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Oklahoma. This forecast covers September 2024, the next quarter (October-December 2024), and extends to September 2025. Remember, these are forecasts, and the actual market can behave differently due to unexpected economic shifts. These projections are based on analysis from Zillow.
Oklahoma MSA Home Price Growth Forecast (Percent Change)
Region Name | Region Type | State | Base Date | Oct-31-2024 | Dec-31-2024 | Sept-30-2025 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
Tulsa, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.5 |
Lawton, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
Stillwater, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
Shawnee, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 2.2 |
Muskogee, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2 |
Enid, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0 | -0.8 | -2.4 |
Ardmore, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 1.3 |
Bartlesville, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
Tahlequah, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 2.3 |
Durant, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 1.5 |
Ponca City, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1 |
McAlester, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
Duncan, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
Ada, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 |
Miami, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
Weatherford, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -1.6 |
Altus, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
Woodward, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.4 | -1.9 | -5.1 |
Elk City, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | 0.3 | -0.7 | -2.2 |
Guymon, OK | msa | OK | Sept-30-2024 | -0.2 | -1 | -1.4 |
Analysis of the MSA Forecasts:
This data shows a mixed bag. Some areas like Tulsa and Shawnee are projected to see price increases in the coming year. However, several areas, including Woodward and Enid, face potential price decreases. This highlights the importance of looking at the local market when making real estate decisions. These variations are likely influenced by local economic conditions, job growth, and population trends.
Regions Poised for Growth vs. Decline:
Based on the forecast, we can identify some regions where home prices might rise or fall.
Regions Poised for Growth (Potential):
- Tulsa
- Shawnee
- Muskogee
- Tahlequah
- Duncan
- Miami
These areas are projected to experience positive home price growth over the next year. However, remember that these are just forecasts, and actual results might vary.
Regions Poised for Decline (Potential):
- Lawton
- Stillwater
- Enid
- Ponca City
- Woodward
- Elk City
- Altus
- Guymon
These areas could see a drop in home prices. The reasons for this projected decline can range from slower job growth in those specific regions to local economic factors.
Will Home Prices Drop in Oklahoma? Will it Crash?
The question on everyone's mind: will the Oklahoma housing market crash? A complete crash seems unlikely. While some areas might see price corrections or slower growth, a widespread collapse is improbable given the relatively low inventory levels and steady population growth in many parts of Oklahoma. However, we are seeing a shift from the seller’s market we experienced a few years ago. A more balanced market is emerging, which means buyers will have more leverage in negotiations.
I think we can expect a period of stabilization rather than a dramatic crash.
2026 Forecast: A Glimpse into the Future
Predicting the market that far out is challenging. However, based on current trends and assuming continued economic stability, I anticipate a modest increase in home prices in most areas of Oklahoma by 2026. The rate of increase will likely be slower than what we've seen recently, potentially closer to the overall inflation rate. Specific regions, as we've discussed, could vary significantly.
Final Thoughts:
The Oklahoma housing market forecast indicates a transition from a seller's market to a more balanced one. While a market crash seems improbable, some areas face potential price adjustments. Remember, this is a complex issue. Local factors, economic shifts, and interest rates will influence the market's future.
Recommended Read:
- Oklahoma City Housing Market 2024: Trends and Forecast
- Edmond OK Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast 2024
- Tulsa Housing Market 2024: Trends and Predictions
- Housing Market Predictions: Rate Cuts to Fuel Significant Price Increases
- Housing Market Predictions for Next Year: Prices to Rise by 4.4%
- Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2024 to 2028
- Housing Market Predictions for Q4 2024: Insights and Trends
- Housing Market Predictions Post 2024 US Elections