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Oklahoma Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

November 5, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Thinking about buying or selling a home in the Sooner State? The Oklahoma housing market is currently showing resilience and steady growth, with the average home value sitting around $216,292 as of 2025. What's even more encouraging is that these homes tend to go from listed to pending in approximately 29 days. This tells me that demand is pretty consistent, and folks are making decisions fairly quickly when they find the right property. It’s not a market that’s cooling off dramatically, nor is it overheating to a point where it feels impossible to get in.

From my perspective, this stability is a good sign. It means homeowners aren't seeing wild swings in their property values, and buyers can approach the market with a bit more confidence, knowing they're likely making a sound investment in Oklahoma. Let’s dive deeper into what these numbers actually mean for you.

The Oklahoma Housing Market: What's Happening Currently?

A Snapshot of the Oklahoma Housing Market in 2025

To really understand where things are, it’s important to look at the current data. Zillow gives us a clear picture of the market's pulse right now.

Here's what we're seeing as of late 2025:

Homes for Sale Inventory: As of September 30, 2025, there were 21,192 homes available on the market. This number is crucial – it tells us how much choice potential buyers have. More inventory generally means less competition and potentially more negotiating power for buyers.
New Listings: In the same period, 5,273 new homes hit the market. This indicates the pace at which new opportunities are becoming available. A healthy flow of new listings keeps the market dynamic.
Median Sale to List Ratio: By August 31, 2025, this ratio was at 0.988. This means, on average, homes were selling for very close to their asking price. It’s a strong indicator that sellers are pricing their homes appropriately, and buyers are generally willing to meet those prices.
Median Sale Price: The median sale price for homes in Oklahoma as of August 31, 2025, was $236,300. This is the midpoint of all home sales, giving us a good average of what people are actually paying.
Median List Price: On September 30, 2025, the median list price was $292,387. It's interesting to note that the list price is higher than the sale price. This difference often reflects negotiation and the fact that some listed homes might be priced a bit optimistically.
Percentage of Sales Over List Price: Only 20.9% of sales went for more than the asking price by August 31, 2025. This tells me that while there might be some bidding wars for desirable properties, it's not the norm across the entire state. Buyers have a decent chance of getting a home at or even below the asking price.
Percentage of Sales Under List Price: A significant 56.2% of sales were under the list price by August 31, 2025. This is a key insight: it indicates that buyers have room to negotiate and aren't typically being forced to overpay. This is fantastic news for anyone looking to buy.

Understanding the Oklahoma Housing Market Dynamics

When I look at these numbers, I see a market that's actively engaged but not frantic. The fact that the median sale price is below the median list price, and over half of sales are under list price, suggests a balanced market in many areas. This isn’t to say that every home will sell below asking, but it indicates a healthy level of negotiation and realistic pricing.

The speed at which homes are going pending – around 29 days – means that properties that are priced well and presented nicely are moving. This requires sellers to be strategic and buyers to be ready. If a home sits on the market for longer than that average, it often signals potential issues with pricing, condition, or location, or sometimes it's just a matter of waiting for the right buyer.

Will the Oklahoma Housing Market Crash in 2025 or 2026?

This is the million-dollar question, isn't it? Based on the current trends and the projected forecasts, a widespread market crash in Oklahoma in 2025 or 2026 seems unlikely. Instead, I anticipate a continuation of slow and steady growth, with some regional variations.

A “crash” usually implies a rapid and significant drop in home values, often driven by economic turmoil, oversupply, or speculative bubbles. Looking at Oklahoma's economic drivers and housing data, none of those extreme conditions appear to be on the horizon.

Oklahoma Housing Market Predictions:

Zillow’s projections give us a glimpse into the future, and they are quite informative. These forecasts are based on sophisticated algorithms that consider various economic and housing indicators. Let's break down what these predictions suggest for different parts of Oklahoma.

Here's a look at the projected home value changes for various metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) within Oklahoma:

Region Name	Projected Home Value Change (Oct 31, 2025)	Projected Home Value Change (Dec 31, 2025)	Projected Home Value Change (Sep 30, 2026)
Oklahoma City, OK	0.3%	0.8%	2.1%
Tulsa, OK	0.3%	0.8%	2.4%
Lawton, OK	0.5%	0.8%	2.4%
Stillwater, OK	0.4%	0.7%	1.5%
Shawnee, OK	0.6%	1.3%	3.9%
Muskogee, OK	0%	0%	1.7%
Enid, OK	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Ardmore, OK	0.3%	0.3%	2%
Bartlesville, OK	0.6%	1%	3.2%
Tahlequah, OK	0.6%	1%	3.3%
Durant, OK	0.3%	0.6%	2.1%
Ponca City, OK	0.5%	0.4%	0.6%
McAlester, OK	0.8%	1.2%	2.2%
Duncan, OK	0%	-0.1%	2.6%
Ada, OK	0.6%	0.9%	2.1%
Miami, OK	0.4%	0.5%	1.8%
Weatherford, OK	0.4%	0.4%	1.7%
Altus, OK	0%	-0.2%	0.3%
Woodward, OK	0.5%	0%	-2% (Slight Dip)
Elk City, OK	0%	-0.4%	-0.3% (Slight Dip)
Guymon, OK	0.6%	0.7%	1.1%

Key Observations from the Forecast:

Overall Modest Growth: The majority of MSAs are projected to see modest but positive home value appreciation throughout 2025 and into 2026. This indicates a healthy, growing market rather than a boom or bust scenario.
Strong Performers: Areas like Shawnee, Bartlesville, and Tahlequah show some of the higher projected growth rates, particularly looking towards September 2026. This could be due to specific local economic developments, attractive price points relative to larger metros, or simply a stronger demand in these communities.
Some Areas Showing Slowdown or Slight Dips: It's important to note that a few areas, like Woodward and Elk City, have projections that include slight decreases or very minimal growth into late 2025 and 2026. This is common in any housing market; not every single town or city will move in perfect lockstep. This doesn't signal a crash, but rather a period of market adjustment or a slower demand in those specific locales. Factors like local employment trends, the presence of larger industries, or even migration patterns can influence these smaller pockets.
Consistency in Major Metros: Oklahoma City and Tulsa, the state's largest metro areas, are projected for steady, consistent growth. This is typical, as larger cities often have more diversified economies and a consistent influx of people, which supports housing demand.

Factors Influencing the Oklahoma Housing Market

Several things are shaping the Oklahoma housing market right now:

Interest Rates: Interest rates are a huge player. If rates stay relatively stable or even tick up slightly, it can temper demand a bit, leading to more balanced negotiations, which is what we’re seeing. If they were to drop significantly, we might see an uptick in buyer activity and potentially higher prices.
Economic Stability and Job Growth: Oklahoma has a diverse economy, with strengths in energy, aerospace, agriculture, and manufacturing. Continued job growth and economic stability in these sectors are vital for sustaining housing demand. When people have jobs and feel secure, they are more likely to buy homes.
Affordability: Compared to many coastal states, Oklahoma remains highly affordable. This affordability is a significant draw for people relocating from more expensive areas, bringing their demand and purchasing power with them. This continuous inflow helps bolster the market.
Inventory Levels: As mentioned, the 21,192 homes for sale is a healthy number. A lack of inventory can drive prices up quickly, while an oversupply can lead to price drops. The current level seems to be striking a good balance, preventing drastic swings.

Insights for Buyers in the Oklahoma Housing Market

If you're on the hunt for a home in Oklahoma, know that homes in desirable areas and price points are still moving quickly. Have your financing in order, and be ready to act when you find the right place. With over half of sales going below the list price, there's definitely room for negotiation.

Don't be afraid to make a reasonable offer based on comparable sales and the home's condition. The projections show some variation across the state. If your budget is a key concern, explore areas that might not be the flashiest but offer great value and are poised for future growth.

The Question of a Crash Revisited

To directly address the concern: Will the Oklahoma housing market crash in 2025 or 2026? My professional opinion, based on the data and broader economic factors, is no. A crash is usually a symptom of something fundamentally broken – like a widespread job loss, a surge in foreclosures, or a speculative bubble bursting. Oklahoma's housing market, by all current indicators, doesn't exhibit these characteristics.

What we are seeing is a managed and sustainable growth trajectory. The projections show slight increases in home values across most of the state, with only a couple of smaller areas showing minor dips, which are typical market adjustments. Think of it more as a steady climb rather than a rocket launch followed by a plummet.

This stability is a good thing for both buyers and sellers. It means you can make decisions with a reasonable degree of confidence about the future value of your property or investment.

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Kentucky Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

November 4, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Thinking about buying or selling a home in the Bluegrass State? You've come to the right place! The Kentucky housing market is a popular topic, and for good reason. It’s a place many folks call home, and understanding its ins and outs can make a big difference. Right now, the average Kentucky home value stands at $226,606, showing a healthy 4.5% increase over the past year, often finding buyers within 18 days of hitting the market. This tells me that demand is still present, and homes are moving at a decent clip. Let's dive deeper into what this means for you.

Kentucky Housing Market: What's Happening Now and What's Next

Kentucky, with its unique blend of charming rural areas and growing urban centers, presents a fascinating real estate picture. It’s not just about big cities; there’s a charm to its smaller towns that attracts people looking for a different pace of life.

Current Snapshot of the Kentucky Housing Market (2025)

To give you the clearest picture, let's break down where things stand as of late 2025, based on data from Zillow.

Here’s a look at the supply and demand dynamics:

Homes for Sale: As of September 30, 2025, there were 16,894 homes on the market. This gives potential buyers a decent selection to choose from.
New Listings: In September 2025, 5,148 new homes hit the market. This is a healthy flow, suggesting that sellers are still finding opportunities to list their properties.

Now, let's talk about pricing and how quickly homes are selling:

Median Sale to List Ratio: On August 31, 2025, this was at 0.988. This means that, on average, homes were selling for just a little under their asking price. It’s a sign of a balanced market, not overly favoring buyers or sellers with extreme bidding wars, but definitely not a buyer's market either.
Median Sale Price: As of August 31, 2025, the median sale price was $260,367. This is the middle point – half of the homes sold for more, and half sold for less.
Median List Price: By September 30, 2025, the median list price was $295,000. The gap between the list price and the sale price tells us a bit about negotiation and what buyers are ultimately willing to pay.
Sales Over List Price: A notable 22.6% of sales on August 31, 2025, went for more than their asking price. This indicates that in some segments or desirable areas, competition is still driving prices up.
Sales Under List Price: Conversely, 56.9% of sales were below the list price. This is the larger chunk, supporting the median sale-to-list ratio and showing that many deals are being struck through negotiation.

From my perspective, what these numbers reveal is a market that's stable with a gentle upward trend. The significant difference between list and sale prices for the majority of homes suggests that while some properties are fetching premiums, there's still room for negotiation in many instances. This is excellent news for buyers who are looking for value and don't want to get caught in a frenzy. It also means sellers need to be strategic with their pricing to attract the right buyers.

The Kentucky Housing Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

Looking ahead is crucial if you're making a long-term decision about real estate. The forecast from Zillow offers some interesting insights into potential future trends across different areas of Kentucky. It's important to remember that these are predictions, and real estate can be influenced by many unexpected factors.

Here’s a look at projected home value changes for selected areas, indicating a general trend of modest growth:

Region Name	Projected Change by 31-10-2025	Projected Change by 31-12-2025	Projected Change by 30-09-2026
Louisville, KY	0.2%	0.7%	1.6%
Lexington, KY	0.4%	1.0%	3.3%
Bowling Green, KY	0.1%	0.3%	2.1%
Frankfort, KY	0.4%	1.1%	4.3%
Richmond, KY	0.3%	0.8%	2.9%
Elizabethtown, KY	-0.3% (slight dip)	-0.2% (slight dip)	1.9%
Owensboro, KY	-0.1% (slight dip)	0.1%	1.5%
Paducah, KY	-0.1% (slight dip)	0.1%	1.6%
Campbellsville, KY	-0.1% (slight dip)	0.4%	4.2%
Mayfield, KY	0.2%	0.9%	4.1%

Note: Some regions show slight dips in projections for late 2025, but generally recover and show positive growth into late 2026. This can be typical market fluctuation.

Looking at these regional forecasts, I see a pattern of generally positive, albeit modest, appreciation. Cities like Frankfort, Lexington, and Campbellsville are showing some of the strongest projected growth by late 2026. This often indicates areas with strong job markets, good amenities, or perhaps a more limited supply of housing that's meeting demand.

On the other hand, areas like Murray and Middlesborough show significant negative projections. This is a crucial piece of information for anyone considering property in those specific locations. A steep decline forecast can signal underlying economic challenges, population shifts, or an oversupply of housing. It’s a reminder that real estate is hyper-local, and national or even statewide trends don't always apply uniformly.

Will The Kentucky Housing Market Crash in 2025 or 2026?

This is the million-dollar question, isn't it? Based on the data and my interpretation, I don't see evidence pointing to a crash in the Kentucky housing market in 2025 or 2026. A market crash typically involves a rapid, significant drop in home values across the board, often driven by widespread economic distress, a surplus of homes with no buyers, and a breakdown in lending.

What I'm observing in Kentucky is a market that is:

Appreciating: Home values are going up, albeit at a sustainable pace of 4.5% year-over-year. This isn't the frenzied, unsustainable growth that often precedes a fall.
Moving: Homes are selling within a reasonable timeframe, with a healthy inventory.
Negotiated: While some homes sell above asking, the majority are selling below, indicating that buyers still have some negotiating power.
Forecasting Growth: The regional forecasts, aside from a few specific outliers, predict continued, modest appreciation.

Instead of a “crash,” I anticipate a continuation of what I've described as a stable, balanced market, with nuanced variations across different regions. Some areas might cool slightly, especially if they experienced rapid growth in previous years, while others with strong underlying economic fundamentals will likely continue to see steady gains.

Think of it like this: the market has matured. It’s not experiencing the boom-and-bust cycles of some other times and places. This stability is actually a good thing for long-term homeowners and careful investors. It suggests that the current home values are more reflective of sustainable demand and economic conditions rather than speculative bubbles.

Factors Influencing the Kentucky Housing Market

Several key factors consistently shape the Kentucky real estate scene, and understanding these will give you even more insight:

Economic Development and Job Growth: When new businesses come to Kentucky, or existing ones expand, it brings people to the state who need housing. Major employers and industries (like manufacturing, healthcare, and agriculture) have a direct impact on demand in their surrounding areas.
Interest Rates: The cost of borrowing money significantly impacts affordability. When interest rates rise, monthly mortgage payments go up, which can cool demand. Conversely, lower rates can stimulate the market.
Population Trends: Are people moving to Kentucky or leaving? In-migration generally increases housing demand, while out-migration can decrease it. Kentucky has a mix of areas attracting new residents and those seeing a decline.
Housing Supply: The number of homes available for sale is a huge factor. If there aren't enough homes to meet demand, prices tend to go up. If there are too many, prices can stagnate or fall.
Affordability: Kentucky, in general, has historically offered more affordable housing compared to many other parts of the country. This affordability is a significant draw for people relocating from more expensive states.
Local Amenities and Quality of Life: Access to good schools, parks, cultural attractions, and a lower cost of living all contribute to making an area desirable, which in turn affects its housing market.

My personal take is that Kentucky's enduring appeal lies in its quality of life and relative affordability. Even as national economic winds shift, these fundamental strengths tend to provide a bedrock of stability for its housing market. I’ve seen firsthand how a promising job announcement in one county can ripple outwards, boosting demand for housing in neighboring towns.

Regional Spotlight: Areas to Watch

While the overall picture is positive, it's essential to zone in on specific regions.

Louisville and Lexington: As the state's largest metro areas, these will naturally see the most activity and investment. They typically have stronger job markets and attract a diverse range of buyers, from first-time homeowners to affluent investors. The forecasts show steady growth here.
Bowling Green: This city has been experiencing significant growth due to its manufacturing sector and university. We can expect continued interest and potential for appreciation.
Emerging Areas: Keep an eye on smaller cities and towns that are benefiting from investment, infrastructure improvements, or the ripple effect from larger metros. Areas like Frankfort and Campbellsville, with their strong forecast growth, are worth noting. They may offer more affordable entry points with good potential for future gains.
Areas with Caution: As highlighted by the negative forecasts, regions like Murray and Middlesborough require a more cautious approach. Understanding the specific economic drivers (or lack thereof) in these areas is paramount before making any decisions. Sometimes, a lower price point can be attractive, but not if the long-term value is projected to decline significantly.

What Does This Mean for You?

For buyers, the current market conditions suggest that while it's competitive, it's not prohibitively so. You still have the opportunity to negotiate on many properties.

For sellers, this is a good time to sell, provided you price your home correctly. The median list price is higher than the median sale price, so there is a bit of a gap.

For investors, Kentucky can offer attractive investment opportunities due to its affordability. However, it's vital to do your homework. Focus on areas with strong economic fundamentals and growth potential. Rental demand in certain areas might be higher than others, impacting potential returns.

My Final Thoughts

I believe the Kentucky housing market is in a healthy groove. It’s a market that offers real value and a good quality of life, which are fundamental drivers of housing demand. The projected trends suggest continued, sustainable growth rather than a speculative bubble. For individuals looking to put down roots or make a sound investment, Kentucky remains a compelling state.

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