Unlike some other Oklahoma cities, Tulsa boasts a distinctive housing market. Fueled by a strong job market and a steady increase in commercial development, Tulsa is attracting homebuyers seeking a vibrant community.
Tulsa housing market trends in 2024 show a somewhat competitive market with home prices experiencing a slight decline year-over-year, while the number of homes sold has slightly increased. Let's dive into the specifics and explore what this means for both buyers and sellers.
Tulsa Housing Market Trends in 2024: A Detailed Look
Home Sales
The number of homes sold in Tulsa has seen a modest increase in 2024. According to Redfin, in October, there were 380 homes sold, a 2.7% rise compared to the same month last year. This signifies a slightly more active market than the previous year. This increase in sales might be due to factors like lower interest rates or improved buyer confidence.
However, it's important to note that the average time it takes for a home to sell has increased. In October 2024, homes spent an average of 35 days on the market, compared to 17 days in October 2023. This reflects a shift from the faster-paced market we experienced last year, indicating that buyers might have more time to consider their options.
Home Prices
One of the most significant Tulsa housing market trends is the slight decline in home prices. The median sale price in October 2024 was $225,000, a 2.8% decrease from the same period last year. This decline is in line with broader national trends as interest rates increased in early 2024, potentially influencing buyer behavior.
When considering prices per square foot, we see a different picture. The median sale price per square foot is $137, which is a 0.7% increase year-over-year. While the overall median price has decreased, the price per square foot suggests that the value of homes isn't experiencing a major decline. This could imply that buyers are still focused on the quality and size of homes despite the overall price decrease.
Housing Supply
I believe that while the Tulsa housing market shows a slight increase in the number of homes sold, it is not necessarily reflective of a flood of properties entering the market. In my opinion, it signifies a more balanced situation rather than a massive increase in housing inventory.
In my experience, the supply of homes has remained relatively stable, and we haven't seen a significant surge in new listings. This indicates that the market is not flooded with properties. This is a positive indicator for potential homebuyers, as they may have more leverage in negotiations and don't have to worry about an overwhelming number of competitors.
Market Trends
The Tulsa housing market is currently considered “somewhat competitive”. This means homes might receive a few offers, and buyers are not necessarily faced with bidding wars. The average home in Tulsa sells for about 3% below the list price and goes pending in around 24 days.
Key Market Indicators:
- Sale-to-List Price: 97.3% (down 0.14 points year-over-year)
- Homes Sold Above List Price: 21.8% (down 4.6 points year-over-year)
- Homes with Price Drops: 40.7% (up 0.07 points year-over-year)
This data indicates that while some homes are selling above list price, a considerable number are also experiencing price reductions. This provides a better opportunity for buyers to negotiate and potentially secure a better deal.
Is Tulsa a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
Based on the current trends, I think it's fair to say that the Tulsa housing market is slowly transitioning towards a more balanced state, leaning slightly in favor of buyers. It's a good time for buyers to negotiate and possibly find more favorable terms. Sellers, on the other hand, might need to adjust their expectations and be prepared for a slightly longer selling time and potentially accept offers that are closer to the list price.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Tulsa?
While the median sale price has decreased by 2.8% year-over-year, it's important to remember that this is a relatively small decrease. This small drop in home prices does not necessarily signal a major market crash. In my opinion, the decline reflects the market's natural adjustment to changes in interest rates and overall economic conditions.
| Year-Over-Year Change | October 2023 | October 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | \$231,000 | \$225,000 |
| Homes Sold | 370 | 380 |
| Median Days on Market | 17 | 35 |
Migration & Relocation Trends in Tulsa
In the period of August to October 2024, there was an interesting trend in Tulsa's housing market. About 23% of those looking to buy homes in Tulsa were considering moving out of the city, while the majority (77%) were looking to stay within the Tulsa metropolitan area.
Here's a breakdown of some of the most notable migration patterns:
Where Are People Moving To Tulsa From?
- Dallas, TX
- Los Angeles, CA
- Miami, FL
- Seattle, WA
- San Francisco, CA
Where Are People From Tulsa Moving To?
- Oklahoma City, OK
- Minneapolis, MN
- Little Rock, AR
- Memphis, TN
- Nashville, TN
These trends can reveal a lot about the type of people moving to and from the area and might indicate future shifts in the Tulsa housing market. For instance, individuals from larger, more expensive cities may be drawn to Tulsa's affordability and quality of life.
Impact of Climate on Tulsa Housing
The climate in Tulsa also plays a part in the housing market. It's important for potential buyers and sellers to be aware of the possible environmental risks associated with the area:
- Flood Factor: Tulsa has a moderate flood risk, with 14% of properties potentially facing severe flooding in the next 30 years.
- Fire Factor: Wildfires are a moderate risk in Tulsa, with 43% of properties at risk.
- Wind Factor: Severe wind events pose a minor risk to 52% of properties.
- Heat Factor: Tulsa experiences a major risk of extreme heat, with 78% of properties facing a high risk.
These factors can influence insurance premiums, property values, and overall desirability of certain neighborhoods. Understanding these risks can help you make a better-informed decision when choosing a home.
Tulsa's Neighborhoods and Housing Markets
Tulsa offers a variety of neighborhoods with diverse housing options and price points. Some of the most popular and sought-after neighborhoods include:
- Midtown: Known for its vibrant atmosphere, trendy restaurants, and easy access to downtown.
- Brookside: A historic district with charming bungalows and a lively community feel.
- Stone Canyon: A newer, upscale area with luxurious homes and beautiful views.
- West Highlands-Tulsa Hills: Offers a blend of established homes and new developments, with convenient access to shopping and recreation.
- Channing Park: A family-friendly neighborhood with good schools and a strong sense of community.
In summary, the Tulsa housing market in 2024 presents a balanced opportunity for buyers and sellers. Home prices have experienced a slight decrease, but the market hasn't seen a significant decline. The number of homes sold has increased, although the time it takes to sell a home has also increased.
I find that the current market conditions offer buyers more negotiation leverage and potentially a better opportunity to find a good deal. Sellers might need to be more flexible with their pricing and potentially adjust their expectations.
Tulsa Housing Market Forecast 2024-2025
The Tulsa housing market forecast suggests that the near future might offer some interesting opportunities. While the market isn't expected to crash, we can anticipate a period of slower growth and potentially some price adjustments. In short, Tulsa's home prices are predicted to rise slightly in the next few months, but the growth will slow down towards the end of 2025.
Let's dive deeper into what the data tells us and what my perspective is on the Tulsa housing market forecast.
Tulsa Home Price Predictions
I’ve been following the Tulsa real estate scene for a while now, and based on Zillow's data from the latest forecast, here’s what we can expect:
| Date | Projected Home Price Change (Year-Over-Year) |
|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | +0.1% |
| Dec 31, 2024 | +0% |
| Sept 30, 2025 | +1.5% |
These figures suggest that home price growth in Tulsa will be modest through the end of 2024 and then pick up slightly in the third quarter of 2025. However, it's important to note that these are just forecasts, and the actual numbers could vary.
Based on my experience, the Tulsa housing market forecast likely reflects national trends. The market has seen a period of rapid growth, and we're now shifting to a more balanced phase.
Comparing Tulsa to Other Oklahoma Cities
It's also helpful to compare the Tulsa housing market forecast with other parts of Oklahoma. According to the same data source, other areas of the state are predicted to see less growth or even some declines in home prices.
| City | Projected Home Price Change (Year-Over-Year) |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | +0.6% |
| Lawton | -0.3% |
| Stillwater | -0.8% |
| Shawnee | 2.2% |
| Muskogee | 2.0% |
As you can see, Tulsa is holding up relatively well compared to other cities in the state.
Will Home Prices Drop in Tulsa?
The data and my experience suggest that a significant drop or crash in the Tulsa housing market isn't likely in the near term. We may see a slowdown in price growth, but a major decline seems unlikely.
Forecast for 2026 and Beyond
Predicting the housing market too far out is always tricky, but based on current trends and my opinion, I believe that the Tulsa housing market will likely see slow but steady growth in 2026 and beyond. The city's strong economy, relatively affordable housing compared to other parts of the country, and growing population all point towards a positive outlook for the long term.
Should You Invest In Tulsa Real Estate Market?
If you're considering investing in real estate, Tulsa could be a good option to explore. Here are some of the top reasons why investing in Tulsa real estate could be a wise choice, as well as potential drawbacks to keep in mind.
Top Reasons to Invest in Tulsa Real Estate:
- Strong Market Growth: Over the past year, the Tulsa housing market has shown impressive growth, with the average home value increasing by 4.9% to reach $202,495. The median days to pending is relatively fast, indicating a high demand for homes.
- Affordable Prices: Compared to other major cities, Tulsa offers affordable real estate prices, making it an attractive option for investors seeking high rental yield and positive cash flow.
- Diverse Economy: Tulsa's economy is diverse, with a mix of industries that includes energy, healthcare, and aerospace. This diversity helps to create a stable job market, which can lead to increased demand for housing and potential appreciation in property values.
- Favorable Rental Market: Tulsa's rental market is strong, with a high demand for rental properties and relatively low vacancy rates. This creates an opportunity for investors to generate passive income through rental properties. The massive student market in Tulsa can be a good investment opportunity due to the presence of multiple colleges and universities in the area, including the University of Tulsa, Oral Roberts University, Oklahoma State University, and Spartan School of Aeronautics. With a diverse student population, investing in real estate aimed at students can create a stable portfolio, as returns and overall property values are not tied to the popularity of just one school.
- Tax Benefits: Oklahoma offers several tax incentives for real estate investors, including low property taxes and exemptions for certain types of properties.
Potential Drawbacks to Keep in Mind:
- Weather Conditions: Tulsa is located in “Tornado Alley,” which means it is prone to severe weather conditions, including tornadoes and hail storms. This can lead to damage to properties and increased insurance costs.
- Dependent on Oil Industry: While Tulsa's economy is diverse, it is still heavily dependent on the oil industry, which can be volatile and subject to fluctuations in global oil prices.
- Limited Appreciation Potential: While Tulsa's real estate market is growing, it may not appreciate as quickly as markets in larger cities with stronger job growth and population growth.
- Limited Investment Options: While there are opportunities to invest in residential properties, the options for commercial real estate investment may be more limited in Tulsa.
Overall, investing in Tulsa real estate could be a good option for investors seeking affordable prices, strong rental demand, and a stable job market. However, investors should carefully consider the potential drawbacks and risks associated with investing in the region, including severe weather conditions and dependence on the oil industry.
