Blog - Norada Real Estate Investments

US Housing Market Forecast 2020 & 2021: Crash or Next Boom?

November 13, 2020 by Marco Santarelli

Here are the updated housing market trends & predictions for 2020 & 2021. As of now, the housing market remains a hot seller's real estate market, with annual price growth reaching record highs and inventory continuing to fall. After a brief rise in new listings coming onto the market, things are back to the usual downward slide as we head into the winter season.

Buyers have been looking for signs of a slowdown in the housing market that has been red hot since its post-pandemic recovery but the prices continue to skyrocket. We need more new home supply to add to inventory and slow these sharp price increases, The asking prices are soaring in double-digits (nearly 13 percent over last year) with the first week of November marking the 13th consecutive week of double-digit price appreciation.

This trend shows that the housing market is as strong as it was during the housing bubble. Although the demand has softened a bit as compared to previous weeks but is nowhere to close to a level where you can imagine the balance real estate market conditions. Now we need to wait and watch whether the demand would soften up a bit more in November & December and lead to a decrease in the pace of price growth.

We typically see a decline in demand and a big increase in time on the market before the end of November. If this trend remains steady in the weeks ahead, that points to a seasonal slowdown, but if the time on the market shrinks by a greater amount, that’s a signal that 2020's housing market is going to remain hot even during holidays.

As of now record-low mortgage rates and shortage of inventory are keeping the US housing market strong with respect to buyer demand. Both prices and sales have been surging month-over-month breaking new records. Existing home sales also show the tightest housing market on record.

In the article, you'll find data that shows how the US housing market is recovering week after week from the blows of the pandemic. New home sales have also risen during the pandemic and existing home sales are at a 1-year high.

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Boston Real Estate Market Trends & Investment Outlook

November 12, 2020 by Marco Santarelli

The Greater Boston housing market is hot right now and both prices and sales are rising. Sales of single-family homes and condominiums rebounded in September across the Greater Boston area, climbing for the first time in at least six months on a year-over-year basis. There were record sales in September. The previous high for September sales occurred five years ago when 1,218 single-family homes were sold in September 2015,

That's according to the latest data from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. The demand for single-family homes is high. Sales of single-family homes rose on an annual basis by 32.3 percent last month, climbing from 1,064 homes sold in September 2019 to 1,408 this September to set a new record for sales volume during the month of September.

Despite an increase of 38.2% year-over-year in pending sales in September, active listings dropped by -29.4%. It is one of the factors that affect overall sales dollar volume while simultaneously creating a very competitive and tight market which keeps the home prices from plunging. The biggest challenge holding back sales is the lack of enough inventory to sell with months of supply dropping to 1.5 months.

Sellers still hold the upper hand due to the imbalance between supply and demand. At the current pace of buying, inventory would run out in just six weeks. On the other hand, the Boston home buyers are benefitting from record-low mortgage rates.

There was a sigh of relief for them as there was a spike in new listings that came on the market last month. Compared to August, the new listings of single-family homes saw a jump of 20.6%. As more sellers entered the market, the total listings also increased by 15.2% from last month. However, these figures are still lagging behind last year.

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Boise Real Estate Market Trends & Investment Outlook

November 10, 2020 by Marco Santarelli

The Boise housing market is a scorcher and is being fueled by low mortgage rates and limited supply compared to demand. The result is that buyers have to pay over the asking price. Home prices in Ada County were up again in September. The overall median sales price, including existing and new home sales, reached $409,945 last month, an increase of 17.2% year-over-year, according to the latest report released by Boise Regional Realtors.

Active listings in Ada County have declined nearly 73% in the past year. The Months Supply of Inventory has dropped 0.4 months. Typically 5-6 months is considered to be a balanced real estate market. A supply of 0.4 months means that if no additional homes were listed for sale, Ada County would run out of homes to buy in under two weeks. That's how hot this market is even during the times of the Covid19 pandemic.

It has affected everything from buyer demand to housing supply to mortgage rates, which together have helped drive up home prices across all price points. Despite such a tight supply of houses, the sales are booming. Compared to last year, sales of new and previously owned homes in Ada County rose by 33% in July and August, and nearly 31% in September. The Boise Metro Area housing market is expected to see strong home price gains in the next twelve months, almost nearing 10% (Read the forecast given below).

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Chicago Real Estate Market: Trends & Investment Outlook

November 9, 2020 by Marco Santarelli

The Illinois housing market continued to bounce back in September with a surge in home sales and higher median prices. Both median prices and sales experienced a positive annual change in both Illinois and the Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area. In the Metro Chicago Housing Market, which comprises the nine counties, 12,451 properties were sold, changing by -7.9% from a month ago and 38.7% from a year ago, according to the latest report by Illinois REALTORS.

Sales of both single-family homes and condos surged by 43.3% and 30.5% respectively. With continued record low-interest rates, there's an increase in demand for properties as indicated in the 38.7% increase in closed sales of all properties.

However, as cold weather approaches the month over month sales would see a traditional decline. The sales predicted for October, November, and December suggests an increase on a yearly basis and a decrease on a monthly basis for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA

Chicago home prices are on the rise due to a very tight supply and low mortgage rates. More homebuyers are entering the bidding wars to scoop up their favorite deals. According to local realtors, the housing market will remain hot even when the weather is cooling. Stronger buyer activity will continue with speedy sales and multiple offers leading to price gains.

The median price forecast for Chicago MSA is 12.4% in October, 13.1% in November, and 12.6% in December. The annual sales forecast shows an increase in the range of 24.2% to 32.7%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are predicted to decrease in the range of -6.3% to -8.5% (source: Illinois Realtors®).

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Seattle Real Estate Market: Trends & Investment Outlook

November 8, 2020 by Marco Santarelli

Seattle housing market continues to see low inventory and high competition making things hard for homebuyers. Even before the virus hit the region, it was quite evident that if the inventory crunches further, affordability will become a bigger issue in the Seattle real estate market in 2020, especially with homes in the lower tier.

Since then we've seen significantly lower numbers of active listings when compared to the same time last year. October 2020's housing report from Northwest Multiple Listings Service found King County had 3,806 active listings, a 20.84% drop from the same time last year when there were 4,808 active listings.

In Seattle itself, though, demand seems to be cooling off very slightly. Here, the median price of single-family homes fell 2% from September’s all-time high to $800,000, which was still a 3% increase over last year. It had 1,521 active listings in October, a 15.97% increase year-over-year.

Pending and closed sales in King County were both up as compared to the previous year. King County saw a 19.37% increase in pending sales over the same time last year. Closed sales were up by nearly 40% compared to October 2019.

In Seattle itself, it recorded an increase of 39.93% in closed sales and 19.21% in pending sales. Most homes on the market sell within a week, according to Redfin. Pending sales are outpacing new listings and inventory continues to shrink. There are far more buyers than there are available homes for sale.

To summarise the last month's statistics we can say that All King County & Seattle remains a seller's real estate market with only 0.99 months of inventory — still well below what is required to meet the volume of buyers right now. While we may see sales cool down over the coming months from an unusually hot fall season but things could be extraordinary hot in the spring of 2021.

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