So, you're curious about the current Southern California housing market trends, huh? Well, here's the deal: it's a bit of a mixed bag right now. Think of it like a seesaw – things are constantly shifting. While home prices remain high, sales have been a little sluggish compared to last year. The Southern California housing market is definitely something to keep an eye on, and I'm here to break down what's happening in 2025.
Current Southern California Housing Market Trends: What You Need to Know
Home Sales
Let's start with the basics: home sales. According to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), in July 2025, sales of existing single-family homes in California were down 4.1% compared to July 2024. While this is a statewide number, it does reflect a similar trend in Southern California. Specifically, Southern California saw a decrease of 1.7% in home sales compared to last year. That tells us fewer homes are being sold right now than were being sold a year ago.
But remember, real estate is hyper-local. When we delve into counties, a different story emerges. Here's a breakdown of sales activity changes in Southern California counties:
| County | Sales YTY% Chg |
|---|---|
| Imperial | 116.1% |
| Los Angeles | 1.0% |
| Orange | -1.0% |
| Riverside | -7.4% |
| San Bernardino | -0.5% |
| San Diego | -6.5% |
| Ventura | 12.7% |
Key Takeaways on Sales:
- Imperial County is the outlier, seeing a massive 116.1% increase in sales! This could be due to a variety of factors specific to that region, such as new developments, changes in affordability relative to other Southern California areas, or increased investor activity.
- Ventura County also had a significant increase in sales (12.7%).
- Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties were relatively flat in sales.
- Orange, Riverside, and San Diego counties experienced sales declines. Riverside and San Diego's declines are more pronounced, suggesting a possible slowdown in those markets.
This county-level breakdown highlights the importance of local market knowledge. What's happening in one part of Southern California might be very different from what's happening in another!
Home Prices
Now, for the big question: home prices. Statewide, the median home price in July was $884,050, down a tiny bit (0.3%) from July of last year. But again, Southern California shows its own personality. Southern California saw a slight dip of 0.7%, with a median home price of $875,030.
Here's a breakdown by county in Southern California:
| County | July 2025 Median Price | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Imperial | $415,000 | 7.8% |
| Los Angeles | $911,360 | 0.3% |
| Orange | $1,400,000 | 0.7% |
| Riverside | $630,000 | -1.5% |
| San Bernardino | $486,290 | -2.2% |
| San Diego | $1,040,000 | 2.0% |
| Ventura | $949,500 | -2.3% |
As you can see, it varies! Imperial and San Diego saw price increases, while Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura saw slight decreases. Los Angeles and Orange were fairly flat.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Southern Cal?
That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? While the data shows a slight dip in median prices overall, it’s not a freefall. Some areas are still seeing prices rise. The market seems to be cooling off slightly, but not crashing. Factors like location, the specific property, and interest rates play a big role.
Housing Supply
Here's something interesting: the housing supply in Southern California is actually up compared to last year. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII) – which measures how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market – was 3.8 months in July, up from 2.9 months a year ago. This means there are more homes available for sale, giving buyers more options. Total active listings were up a whopping 37.7% from a year ago!
Is SoCal a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market in 2025?
This is where it gets a little tricky. With more homes available, you might think it's a buyer's market. However, prices are still relatively high. It's probably best described as a more balanced market than we've seen in recent years, tilting slightly towards buyers. Sellers might not get quite as many offers as they used to, and buyers have a little more negotiating power. The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.5% in July 2025 and 100% in July 2024. This shows homes are being sold slightly below asking price now as compared to last year where it sold at the asking price.
Market Trends
So, what's driving these trends? Here's my take:
- Mortgage Rates: Interest rates play a HUGE role. People are less likely to buy when rates are high, which impacts demand.
- Economic Uncertainty: When people are worried about the economy, they tend to hold off on big purchases like homes.
- Seasonal Factors: Real estate often has seasonal ups and downs. Spring and summer are typically busier than fall and winter.
Impact of high mortgage rates
Speaking of interest rates, let's talk about their impact. As of August 21, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.58%, while the 15-year fixed rate is about 5.69%. Higher rates definitely put a damper on buyer enthusiasm.
Freddie Mac reports that rates have dipped slightly over the summer. While this encouraged some buyers to jump back into the market, many are still waiting for rates to fall further. Economic forecasts suggest 30-year mortgage rates will likely end the year between 6.0% and 6.5%.
My Two Cents
Based on what I'm seeing, I think the Southern California housing market is going through a period of adjustment. The crazy bidding wars and super-fast sales we saw in recent years are becoming less common. I believe we're moving toward a more sustainable market where buyers have a bit more say. However, I don't expect a major crash. Demand is still strong in many areas, and inventory, while up, isn't overwhelming.
Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2025
Looking ahead, I believe that the Southern California housing market will continue to be a competitive environment for buyers, but with some opportunities.
- I expect home price appreciation to slow further in 2025, with growth rates potentially declining to the 2-4% range.
- The housing supply is expected to increase gradually, offering more choices to buyers.
- Interest rates will likely remain elevated, but their impact on the market is expected to lessen as people adjust to the new norm.
- Demand for housing in Southern California will likely remain strong, driven by population growth and the desirability of the region.
My overall forecast is for a more balanced market in 2025. While it will still be a seller's market in many areas, buyers will have slightly more leverage.
In my experience, this market is more sensitive to changes in interest rates than some others. As interest rates stabilize or potentially decline, we could see renewed buyer confidence and a pickup in activity. I also feel that areas with a higher concentration of jobs, including those around the tech and entertainment sectors, are likely to remain robust compared to some of the more rural parts of Southern California.
Recommended Read:
