There are two basic types of real estate markets: Linear and Cyclical.
Cyclical Markets
Cyclical markets are real estate markets that tend to have larger price moves up and down over the years. Property values move up and down like a roller coaster ride with noticeable peaks and troughs. They are the shooting stars of housing booms (and busts). Cycle lengths vary between markets but often last between 7 to 10 years from end to end.
The transformation of the American Dream, most broadly manifested in popular folklore as the aspiration of the US middle-class to own a home (even if it means agreeing to a 30-year loan with one's friendly neighborhood too-big-to-fail bank), into the American Nightmare, in which an entire generation (the Millennials) is locked out of purchasing a home due to over $1 trillion in student loans hanging over every financial decision, an abysmal jobs market (for everyone but college educated “waiters and bartenders” whose hiring is on a tear), and banks' unwillingness to lend money to anyone that can fog a mirror, and forcing millions of Americans to rent instead of buy, has been duly documented here before.
An unexpected side effect of the mortgage crisis has been the replacement in many neighborhoods of single-family homeowners with renters. An article from the Urban Institute, took a closer look at the 14.2 million single-family rental units in the US and found that renters are living in smaller, older and slightly less suburban homes than homeowners, and are poorer, more racially and ethnically diverse and younger than homeowners.
The feedback I get from investors across the country is that we are in a seller’s market. Prices are up. Inventory is low. Properties in the hottest markets are selling over asking price with multiple offers. Investors are paying “more than they want to” just to get a deal done. The ratio between rents and purchase price is favoring sellers and squeezing investor buyers out of the market. Another way to describe this trend is that CAP rates are decreasing, or “compressing”.
We are approaching a delicate part of the market cycle where the flood of inexperienced investors is driving prices up to places where experienced investors shake their head and wonder, “How is the winning bidder ever going to make a profit?”
For some residential investors, capital expenditure terminology — CapEx for short — is unfamiliar. Capital expenditure reserves are common in the commercial real estate sector but lesser known in the residential real estate space.
Hiring the right property manager is important for protecting your investment and achieving reduced vacancy time and maximized income.
A good property manager will bring high quality tenants to your rental investment properties. They will have a strong screening process and stay on top of maintenance issues. He or she will generally make your life easier by using technology to run an efficient operation and reach a large audience of potential tenants.
How does a real estate investor go about finding a good property manager?
US home rental prices continued to climb at a modest pace in December, but rapidly escalating costs in cities such as San Francisco and Denver suggest that renters are facing more financial pressure.
Prices rose 3.3% in December compared with 1 year ago, according to real estate data from Zillow.
Although the rise is less than recent appreciation in home values, the surge in rental rates in several of the hottest markets indicates renters who aspire to buy homes face mounting financial challenges.
I was honored to be invited as a guest on the FlipNerd Real Estate Investing podcast show with host Mike Hambright. (You can listen to the episode below.)
Mike has a great podcast with lots of interesting guests, ideas and tips. I had a lot of fun being on the show. It is a “must listen” podcast for new and seasoned real estate investors.
On the show we discussed in some detail each of my 10 Rules of Successful Real Estate Investing. We also covered a few other topics as we went off on tangents. Be sure to listen to the show.
A recently released study revealed that a whopping $441 Billion was spent on rents in the U.S. in 2014. This represents an increase of over $20 Billion from the year before.
As shown on the chart below, rents have increased consistently over the last 20+ years. However, the recent increases have been astounding.
I recently finished recording a podcast as the featured guest on “Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever” hosted by Joe Fairless. This is consistently one of the top rated investing podcasts on iTunes and I encourage you to check it out. The podcast featuring my interview (#111) was released on iTunes on December 21, 2014. (You can listen to the episode below.)
In my interview as a guest on the “Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever,” the host ended the show with what he called the “lightning round” where he asked me some rapid fire questions:
