If you're anything like me, you're probably glued to the real estate market, wondering what’s going on with home prices, sales, and the whole shebang. So, let's dive right in: the current Orange County housing market is showing a mix of interesting trends in late 2024. While we're seeing median sale prices continue to climb, we're also observing an increase in the number of homes sold. Inventory is still tight, leading to fast sales times. It's a complex situation, so let's break it down.

Current Orange County Housing Market Trends: A Look Into 2024 Data

Home Sales: Picking Up the Pace

One of the most noticeable shifts I've seen recently is the increase in home sales volume. It's not just a slight uptick; we're talking about some significant changes. According to the latest data from Orange County REALTORS®, sales figures are up considerably.

Here’s what we’re seeing in November 2024:

• Attached Homes: We're looking at a 9.5% increase in the number of attached homes sold compared to the same time last year. That's a jump from 589.
• Detached Homes: Detached homes have seen an even more substantial leap, with sales increasing by 33.3% year-over-year. That's 965 homes sold in November!

What does this mean? Well, it tells me that while there might be some hesitations due to pricing, there are still plenty of people actively buying homes in Orange County. Demand is definitely present, and that’s a key factor in understanding the current market.

Home Prices: Still on the Rise

Okay, let's talk about the topic that's probably on everyone's mind: home prices. As much as we might wish for a sudden drop, the numbers aren’t showing that right now. Orange County home prices continue to trend upwards, which could be both exciting for sellers and a bit daunting for potential buyers.

Here’s a look at median sales prices from the latest data:

• Attached Homes: The median sales price for attached homes is at $745,000, which represents a 0.7% decrease year-over-year.
• Detached Homes: Detached homes are seeing a much bigger jump, with a median sales price of $1,376,389, reflecting a substantial 5.9% increase year-over-year.

These numbers tell me that while the rate of increase may not be as drastic as it was a year ago, home values in Orange County are generally still going up, especially for detached properties. I think it is important for buyers to stay informed and be prepared when looking in this market.

Housing Supply: Still Quite Limited

Now, let's talk about housing supply. This is where things get a bit tricky. If you're like me and have been keeping an eye on the market, you've probably noticed how quickly homes are selling. One of the main drivers behind this is the lack of homes available for sale. Orange County's housing inventory continues to be low, which means competition for available properties is high.

Here are the numbers for the available inventory:

• Both Attached and Detached: Both attached and detached properties are showing 2.4 months of available inventory.

What this means is that, at the current pace of sales, it would take just 2.4 months to sell all the homes currently on the market. I feel that it indicates a continuing seller's market, at least for the foreseeable future. A low inventory keeps prices up and makes the process of buying a home more challenging.

Market Trends: Homes Selling Fast

Looking deeper, it’s not just about prices and supply. The market trends are also showing us how quickly homes are moving. The speed at which homes are being sold is a strong indicator of the market's current temperature.

Here’s the data on how long homes are staying on the market:

• Attached Homes: Attached homes are spending an average of 29 days on the market.
• Detached Homes: Detached homes are also selling rapidly, averaging about 32 days on the market.

These numbers mean homes are selling quickly, particularly the detached variety. Compared to last year, when homes typically lingered longer, buyers must be quick and decisive when making an offer. For me, that means they also need to be pre-approved for financing before they even start looking. This is a critical step in such a fast paced market.

Is Orange County a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Okay, so the big question everyone wants to know: is it a buyer's or seller's market in Orange County right now? Based on everything we've discussed, it's still leaning heavily towards a seller's market. Here’s why:

• Low Inventory: The limited number of homes available for sale gives sellers a lot of leverage. There are more buyers than homes, which naturally drives prices up.
• Fast Sales: The fact that homes are selling in about a month indicates strong demand. Sellers don't have to wait long to find a buyer, which gives them the upper hand in negotiations.
• Increasing Prices: Despite slight drops in attached home values, overall, prices continue to rise, making it a good time for sellers to capitalize on their investment.

I believe that while buyers have to be strategic, sellers are in a favorable position, which leads me to say that it’s largely a seller’s market.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Orange County?

You might be wondering if home prices are dropping in Orange County. The answer is nuanced. While it is true that there was a slight drop of 0.7% year over year in attached home values, the bigger picture reveals that overall, home prices are not significantly dropping.

Here's what I gather from the data:

• Attached Homes: We see a minor drop in median sale prices but the difference is negligible
• Detached Homes: Detached homes are increasing year over year and these are the majority of sales.

This tells me that we're not seeing a crash in prices. While there are small dips here and there, the overall trend is that home values are holding steady and in some cases, even increasing.

Orange County Housing Market Trends Summary – November 2024

	Attached Homes	Detached Homes
Median Sales Price	$745,000	$1,376,389
Year-over-Year Price Change	-0.7%	+5.9%
Homes Sold	589	965
Year-over-Year Sales Change	+9.5%	+33.3%
Days on Market	29 Days	32 Days
Available Inventory	2.4 Months	2.4 Months

My Personal Take

From my perspective as someone who closely watches the Orange County housing market, I see a continued seller's market. This is driven by a blend of factors including low inventory, high demand, and consistent interest in the area. It’s not just about the numbers though; it's about understanding the nuances of each neighborhood and knowing what people are looking for in a home.

My advice to buyers in this market is to be patient, persistent, and pre-approved for a mortgage. Be ready to act quickly when the right home comes along and be prepared to compete with other buyers. For sellers, it’s an advantageous time, but it still pays to work with an experienced real estate professional who can help you get the best deal.

Orange County Housing Market Forecast 2025

Predicting the future is always tricky, but based on current data and trends, I don’t see a significant shift anytime soon. Orange County remains a desirable place to live, and this demand will likely keep the market competitive for the foreseeable future. While slight adjustments might happen, the core factors suggest that the market will remain strong.

Based on the current trends and the factors influencing the market, I foresee the Orange County housing market continuing to show growth in 2025, albeit at a potentially slower pace than what we've observed in prior years.

I anticipate that the market will likely continue to trend towards a more balanced state, with increasing inventory and moderating price appreciation. Buyers should be prepared for competition, but might have a bit more leverage in negotiation compared to the past.

It's also crucial to keep an eye on macroeconomic factors, like interest rate changes and overall economic health, as these can impact the housing market significantly.

Affordability: Higher mortgage rates lead to higher monthly mortgage payments, making it harder for some buyers to afford the homes they want. This could result in lower demand for homes and potentially, a decline in home prices.

Purchase Power: As mortgage rates increase, the amount that buyers can afford to borrow decreases, which could limit their purchasing power and reduce the number of homes they can afford.

Competition: With lower purchasing power and lower demand, there may be less competition among buyers, which could also lead to lower prices.

Timing: Buyers may delay their home purchase until mortgage rates come down, further reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.