Will The Phoenix Housing Market Crash?

Phoenix has been one of the hottest real estate markets in the U.S. The Greater Phoenix housing market was extremely strong in the two years of this pandemic. The evidence from various sources suggests that home prices in Phoenix are expected to decline in 2023, with some projections seeing this price decline as high as 3% in some Arizona housing markets to the median home value.

Phoenix's housing market is now cooling off, which is excellent news for buyers but not for homeowners. According to the Census Bureau, home sales are down almost 18% since January 2022. However, some areas have cooled more than others. To uncover where housing markets are cooling off most, SmartAsset analyzed the 100 largest metro areas, 92 of which had complete data.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona ranks No. 3 overall. The metro area has the fifth-highest percentage of house listings with a price cut (39.61%), which is 25% points higher than a year ago. Additionally, the number of houses sold in a month has declined by more than 41% between August 2021 and August 2022.

According to Zillow's home value index, typical property values in Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metro grew by 3.6% over the last twelve months. The latest forecast is that Phoenix-Area home prices are projected to decline by 1.2% between January 2023 to January 2024. According to the most current S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, Phoenix’s rapidly slowing housing market has pulled the metro down to the 11th position with a 6.3% increase — down from its peak gain of 32.9% in February 2022.

Another report obtained by Arizona's Family predicts that the Phoenix housing market could see a price drop of up to 25% in 2023 and 2024, similar to the 2008 Great Recession. The same report suggests that Arizona could be one of the states to experience the most significant drop in housing prices in the West.

Phoenix Real Estate Market Report For January 2023

Phoenix Metro Area: According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, the Phoenix housing market experienced low sales volume in January due to high mortgage rates. There were only 4,265 home sales reported by ARMLS, which is the second-lowest sales total for January in the last 20 years. This represents a decline of 37.3% year over year. The median sales price also decreased by 5.7% year over year but only by 0.5% month over month.

However, there is some good news on the horizon. Mortgage rates have since fallen nearly a full point from their peak in November 2022. This reduction in rates could allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan. As a result, buyers have more enthusiasm for the housing market than they did in December, and the market is expected to recover nicely in the spring buying season.

The median-priced home, as reported by ARMLS, sold for $410,000 in January. While the Phoenix housing market experienced low sales volume and a decline in median sales price in January, the reduction in mortgage rates could result in more homebuyers entering the market in the upcoming months, leading to a recovery in the market.

Based on the ARMLS Pending Price Index, the median sales price in Phoenix is projected to rise slightly to $415,000 in February 2023, which is a 1.22% increase month over month, but a 7.74% decline year over year. According to the report, if these projections are accurate, the median sales price will be 12.63% lower than May 2022's record high of $475,000. In February 2023, there were 5,231 pending contracts, which is 24.26% lower than last year, and 8,134 residential listings under contract, including 2,571 UCB listings and 332 CCBS.

While sales volumes have been below normal, they have been recovering steadily and promise better times when the Spring buying season gets fully underway, as per Michael Orr of the Cromford Report. The report predicts a modest increase in prices but a drop in sales volume year over year. However, with mortgage rates falling nearly a full point from their peak, Freddie Mac research suggests that this reduction in rates could enable as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which may bring new buyers into the market.

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

• The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
• The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
• In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
• Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
• The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
• Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).

According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

The pandemic could only pause sales, which in turn created a huge pent-up demand. As we saw the Arizona housing market thriving & becoming sizzling hot in the past couple of years, even the rise in mortgage rates was believed not to affect it. High demand and low inventory have increased prices. As per the current trends, Phoenix is predicted to remain a balanced market in the next 12 months.

The prediction is that the downward price trend will continue with a moderate pace (single-digit appreciation) for the near and medium term, but there won't be any major price crashes. Intriguingly, mortgage industry members remain hopeful that interest rates will decline in 2023. The question is whether the market is too optimistic or has a better understanding of inflation and the potential impact of a recession than the Federal Reserve. Regarding the local Phoenix housing market, experts see prices going down in 2023. The latest forecast by Zillow shows a price delicate of 1.2% by Jan 2024.

Phoenix Housing Market Forecast 2023

What could be the Phoenix real estate market predictions for 2023? Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the country and continues to grow. New residents are drawn to Phoenix by its strong economy, relatively low cost of living, high quality of life, economic opportunity, and cultural attractions. Since 2000, Phoenix’s population has grown by 20% to include approximately 555,013 households and 1.6 million people.

It is the biggest city in Arizona and the state’s capital. It is a minimally walkable city in Maricopa County with a population of approximately 1,442,530 people. However, Phoenix itself is massive. It is the only state capital with more than a million people. It is the fifth-largest city in the country. The Phoenix housing market is much larger than Phoenix itself – it encompasses the entire Valley of the Sun, Phoenix’s sprawling suburbs that are home to another five million people. That makes the Phoenix metro area the twelfth largest in the country.

The favorable living conditions have, furthermore, comforted real estate investors and buyers to invest in Arizona real estate market. The Phoenix housing market was a headline in the news a decade ago when the housing crisis of 2007 and 2008 caused home values here to fall by as much as half. The slow recovery of the national housing market has taken a decade.

Since 2006, the population has grown faster than housing. This growth fueled by job growth has finally consumed the glut of re-sale housing created during the bubble years. Now the market is facing a shortage of homes for sale. Phoenix home prices were up by roughly 7% over the last twelve months. Despite the increase in property prices, the Phoenix real estate market remains much more affordable than in other places.

Single-family homes continue to drive the Arizona real estate market. In 2019, single-family homes grew by roughly 4% as compared to 2018. Particularly, previously-owned single-family houses compromise the majority of residential sales in the Arizona real estate market- approximately 80% of all sales. Annually, the number of previously-owned single-family homes is three to four times greater than new single-family home sales.

The Phoenix real estate market is the top-performing, not only in the Arizona real estate market but nationwide as well. Phoenix has a mixture of owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units for sale. According to Neigborhoodscout.com, a national real estate data provider, three and four-bedroom single-family detached are the most common housing units in Phoenix. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Phoenix include large apartment complexes, duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments. Single-family homes account for about 60% of Phoenix's housing units.

The current typical home value of homes in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metro is $433,926. It indicates that 50 percent of all housing stock in the area is worth more than $433,926 and 50 percent is worth less (adjusting for seasonal fluctuations and only includes the middle price tier of homes). Home values have gone up 3.6% over the past twelve months.

According to NeighborhoodScout.com, in the past ten years, Phoenix real estate appreciated by 261.05%. This amounts to an annual real estate appreciation of nearly 13.70%, which puts Phoenix in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation. During the last twelve months (2021 Q3 – 2022 Q3), Phoenix's appreciation rate has been 20.16%, which is higher than appreciation rates in 88.31% of the cities and towns in the nation. In the quarter, between 2022 Q2 – 2022 Q3, the appreciation rate has been 5.04%.

Here is the latest housing forecast for Phoenix Metro Area.

• Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metro home values have gone up 3.6% over the past year.
• The Phoenix metro housing market forecast ending January 2024 is negative.
• Zillow predicts that Phoenix metro home values may drop by 1.2% between January 2023 to January 2024.
• If this forecast is correct, Phoenix metro home prices will be slightly lower in the 4th Quarter of 2023 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2022.

Phoenix Real Estate Investment: Should You Invest in Phoenix?

Should you consider Phoenix real estate investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Phoenix is a good investment. You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for real estate investors and buyers in 2023. If you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Phoenix real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents.

Perhaps you are looking for a slightly different hold-over, an investment property in Phoenix that you might move into or sell at retirement in the future. Either way, knowing your profit potential and purpose is the first thing to consider. Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Phoenix real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city. We’ll address the biggest factor pulling people to the Phoenix housing market next.

Relatively Affordable Real Estate Market

While California and Florida are seen as hot real estate markets, one of the major attractions of the Phoenix real estate market is affordable real estate. During 2018 and 2019, Arizona was one of the top three states in the nation for population growth. Only Texas and Florida outpaced it, in terms of year-over-year growth. Population growth is particularly high within the Phoenix metro area. Homes in the Phoenix housing market are approaching the 2006 record. Home-price appreciation appears to be slowing a bit in the Phoenix area and most experts agree that prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau data, the population of the city of Phoenix rose by nearly 15% from 2010 to 2019. That’s well above the nation’s growth rate for that same timeframe. Population growth increases the demand for housing on both the purchase and rental sides. With all other things being equal, steady population growth tends to put upward pressure on home prices. The median home’s value has crossed $300,000 but that’s still cheaper than a starter home in coastal California. Don’t forget that the large retiree market means there is strong demand for one and two-bedroom houses and condos here, and those units are a fraction of the cost of a three-bedroom home.

High Rate of Appreciation Due To Short Supply

Although Phoenix has experienced consistent population growth, the housing market has not grown at the same rate. An Up for Growth study found that between 2000 and 2015 Arizona underproduced 505,134 housing units. This underproduction has caused a housing shortage in Phoenix. For example, in the last 30 years Phoenix produced approximately 220,000 new housing units, however, the population has grown by 820,000 people. Phoenix’s housing production has not kept pace with population growth.

This underproduction was magnified when construction virtually shut down during the recession of 2008. Since that time, construction has slowly increased but has not reached the level of production achieved before the recession. The current shortages of housing supply, relative to demand, are a primary reason housing costs are increasing. A significant increase in housing supply is necessary to keep pace with current and projected housing demand.

Highest Appreciating Phoenix Neighborhoods Since 2000 (List by Neighborhoodscout)

1. Central City North
2. Garfield
3. Kenwood / Whites
4. Roadrunner Park / Sleepy Hollow Trailer Village
5. W Fremont Rd / S 15th Ln
6. Talasera
7. Papago Peaks Village / Parkview Village Park
8. Villa Verde / Encanto Estates
9. Lafamilia East
10. Green Acres Park

The Growing Phoenix Rental Market

There is always going to be high tenant turnover in student housing markets. The presence of universities also influences local home prices and rents. The capital of any state will be home to its flagship university, and Phoenix is no exception. Phoenix is so large that it doesn’t just host the flagship Arizona State University campus in Tempe.

There are secondary campuses in downtown Phoenix, northwest Phoenix, and neighboring Glendale. These schools alone have more than seventy thousand students. The Arizona Summit Law School, Grand Canyon University, and several others are located here. There are easily 100,000 college students renting in the Phoenix housing market. You could invest in large single-family homes or multi-unit buildings to rent to students at any of these campuses.

Phoenix Rental Trends: 36% of the households in Phoenix are renter-occupied while 64% are owner-occupied. The rents are rising and it makes sense to keep your home and rent it out. In some neighborhoods, the average rental home may rent well over $2,500 a month.

As of February 19, 2022, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Phoenix, AZ is currently $1,405. This is an 8% increase compared to the previous year. Over the past month, the average rent for a studio apartment in Phoenix increased by 13% to $1,296. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment increased by 8% to $1,405, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment increased by 7% to $1,725.

• Two-bedroom apartment rents average $1,725 (a 7% increase from last year).
• Three-bedroom apartment rents average $2,250 (a 5% increase from last year).
• Four-bedroom apartment rents average $2,500 (a 4% increase from last year).

The “Zumper Phoenix Metro Area Report” analyzed active listings last month across the metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The Arizona one bedroom median rent was $1,357 last month. Scottsdale was the most expensive city with one bedrooms priced at $2,030 whereas Bullhead City ranked as the most affordable city with one bedrooms priced at $1,000.

The best place to buy rental property is about finding growing markets. Cities like Surprise and Glendale are good for investors looking to get started with rental property ownership at an affordable price. These trends provide a macro look at the growing rental demand. Each real estate market has its own unique supply-demand dynamics with unique neighborhoods that present their own opportunities for investors.

These cities look good for rental property investment this year as rents are growing over there.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in Phoenix Metro Area (Y/Y%)

• Bullhead City had the fastest growing rent, up 31.6% since this time last year.
• Phoenix saw rent climb 12.9%, making it second.
• Flagstaff was third with rent jumping 9.3%.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in Phoenix Metro Area (M/M%)

• Surprise rent had the largest monthly growth rate, up 6.1%.
• Scottsdale rent increased 5.2% last month, making it second.
• Casa Grande was third with rent climbing 5%.

Phoenix's Growing Short-Term Rentals

There are more than 200 golf courses in Arizona, but most are located in and around the Valley of the Sun. There are several sports teams located in Phoenix and a wealth of tourist attractions. What makes Arizona unusual is the state’s open relationship with rental sites like Airbnb. A law that went into effect in 2016 made Arizona a leader in Airbnb rentals. The sites are required to collect taxes on the rentals, simplifying revenue collection for the state and the landlords. That probably explains why Airbnb guests grew by 150% in 2016 alone. The Airbnb market has exploded in Arizona during the past five years.

In late 2014, Phoenix only had 687 properties for rent listed on Airbnb. By March of 2019, that number had grown to 4,224 listed properties. This makes Phoenix a great place to buy a single-family home or condo to rent out to tourists (as a short-term rental). However, there are some restrictions on short-term rentals. In May 2019, the state government passed a bill allowing for more regulations of short-term rental operators in the state of Arizona.

In the bill, municipalities were allowed to restrict rentals to overnight stays and prohibit events that otherwise would require a permit, like weddings. Under the new law, owners of short-term rentals should have a sales tax license and they must list the sales tax license number on any advertisements (online/offline) for the property. Although, Phoenix’s short-term rental industry was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic the industry has shown resilience with relatively fair returns as owners implement safety measures to curb the spread of the virus and encourage guests to feel safe.

Phoenix is Landlord Friendly

If you want to invest in real estate, you typically want to do so in a market where you can quickly evict people who don’t pay their rent or damage property. You’ll be glad to know that the Phoenix real estate market is among these compared to surrounding states. Arizona, unlike California, allows landlords to serve an unconditional quit notice. If the tenant violates the rental agreement or doesn’t pay rent, they can be evicted quickly. Renter-friendly rules like requiring a landlord to return a rental deposit within two weeks are not a burden. Conversely, laws that say you can evict a tenant within ten days for lying on a rental application are a definite plus.

The Massive Snowbird Market

The snowbird movement is somewhat different than the conventional tourist market. Arizona has long attracted retirees who couldn’t afford Florida or wanted cleaner, allergy-free air that never included storm clouds. Quartzite, Arizona in particular draws two million snowbirds and tourists. The city stands out for its sixty-plus RV parks. An estimated 300,000 people stay all winter before returning home. Some own second homes in Arizona communities restricted to active adults, while others stay in trailer parks. This creates an unusually diverse opportunity for those considering investing in the Phoenix real estate market.

Growing Retiree Market

The same things attract many people to Phoenix as snowbirds cause many to retire here permanently. This means that many snowbirds end up staying permanently in the Phoenix housing market. Sun City stands out as a mecca for seasonal and year-round retirees, but it is far from the only retirement community in the Phoenix real estate market. The aging of the U.S. population makes investing in communities catering to older adults an excellent idea. Suppose you buy a house to renovate and rent out. Phoenix deals with a large retiree population, both permanent and seasonal.

To accommodate aging in place, they’ve loosened the rules on building “accessory dwelling units”, commonly known as mother-in-law suites. The city also recognizes the need for affordable housing, and they allow people to build and rent out ADUs as affordable housing, especially if the property is within walking distance of public transit. Buy a house, rehab it, and build a granny flat, and you have two rental properties for not much more than the price of one. And the city is almost certain to approve it because they want denser development.

Low Taxes in Arizona

Kiplinger listed Arizona as the 8th most tax-friendly state in the U.S. in 2018. The state income tax is 2.59% for low-income earners, 4.54% for wealthier families. The median home is worth around $177,000 and came with a property tax bill of around $1400, well below what you’d pay in Texas. Arizona has been lowering its capital gains tax rate, as well. The state has a relatively low transfer tax on deeds or land contracts, too.

The Major Wave of Renovation in Downtown Phoenix

The section of Phoenix wedged between Seventh Street and Seventh Avenue is undergoing a wave of commercial redevelopment, fueled by more than five billion dollars invested to date. High-rise developments and mixed-use projects have been built, and several more are underway. Public transit in this area is significantly improved. That is making this area and neighborhoods bordering it an excellent place to invest in the Phoenix housing market. Phoenix isn’t just redeveloping downtown to create a dense, walkable urban core. It is cultivating fifteen complete walkable communities across the metro area with strong public transit, denser housing, and locally provided services. This is a radical shift from the suburban sprawl the area has long been known for.

Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Investment Markets

Investing in Phoenix's real estate can be a worthy investment due to a steady rate of appreciation. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. The Phoenix housing market is one of the hottest markets for 2020. Don’t let memories of the Great Recession bust that cut home values in the Phoenix housing market keep you away. There are plenty of reasons to invest in the Phoenix real estate market, only ten of which we’ve provided above. Have a look at the Phoenix real estate investment prospects we have provided from various real estate sources and make the best possible decision for yourself.

Good cash flow from Phoenix investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. The three most important factors when buying real estate anywhere are location, location, and location. The location creates desirability. Desirability brings demand. There should be a natural and upcoming high demand for rental properties. Demand would raise the price of your Phoenix investment property and you should be able to get a good return on your investment over the long term. The neighborhoods in Phoenix must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate.

The neighborhoods should be close to basic amenities, public services, schools, and shopping malls. A cheaper neighborhood in Phoenix might not be the best place to live in. A cheaper neighborhood should be determined by these factors – Overall Cost Of Living, Rent To Income Ratio, and Median Home Value To Income Ratio. Some of the popular neighborhoods for buying a house or an investment property in Phoenix are Vistancia, Laveen, Deer Valley, South Mountain, Biltmore, DC Ranch, Arcadia, McDowell Mountain Ranch, Anthem, North Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Old Town, Litchfield Park, Trilogy at Vistancia and North Phoenix.

Phoenix real estate prices are well above average cost compared to national prices. It depends on how much you are looking to spend and if you are wanting smaller investment properties or larger deals such as duplex and triplex in Class A neighborhoods. The inventory is low, but opportunities are there.

Even as Phoenix home prices have reached new heights, the market remains attractive to residential real estate investors. As they continue to compete for potential investment properties at the lower end of the market, the challenges for first-time homebuyers will remain. The homebuyers won’t be able to outbid real estate investors and would end up renting. As with any real estate purchase, act wisely. Evaluate the specifics of the Phoenix housing market at the time you intend to purchase. These prices are from Realtor.com and can vary from time to time.

The super-hot housing market in Arizona has many other places for real estate investment. The Tucson real estate market is good for investment. Tucson like Phoenix sees a massive influx of snowbirds, and retirees who flock here during the winter. That creates a large, seasonal rental market. The need for many retirees to sell their second homes when they can no longer travel or live independently provides an opportunity to snap up properties at a bargain rate. Better yet, a large number of those properties don’t have a mortgage on them. Other snowbirds sell their condo and move into single-family homes when they decide to stay in Tucson year-round.

Similarly, Scottsdale has a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the nation if you are an investor. The area contains a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees. There are several reasons to consider investing in Scottsdale real estate. You’ll see better-than-average returns on the average Scottsdale real estate investment property, and its value will be bolstered by a variety of factors. The Scottsdale housing market has a more diverse rental market than just catering to those who can’t afford to buy a single-family home. For example, the area is famous for its snowbirds, and retirees who come for the winter before returning home. This makes Scottsdale a good place for real estate investing.

Chandler is bordered by the cities of Tempe, Mesa, and Phoenix. It is home to about a quarter-million people. There are not suburbs to Chandler, because it is a suburb of Phoenix surrounded by other cities of similar size. However, Chandler has several points in its favor that make it a better choice for real estate investors than surrounding cities. The Chandler area offers strong market fundamentals in addition to a favorable tax and regulatory climate. This is in addition to a plethora of high-paying jobs that attract new residents and niche markets that are willing to pay higher rents in exchange for convenience and proximity to amenities.

Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.

NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Phoenix.Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Phoenix turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Phoenix.

Not just limited to Phoenix or Arizona but you can also invest in some of the best real estate markets in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Phoenix turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.

Let us know which real estate markets you consider best for real estate investing! 

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Remember, caveat emptor still applies when buying a property anywhere. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third-party sites mentioned under references. Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. As a general policy, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no claims or assertions about the future housing market conditions across the US.

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