Norada Real Estate Investments

Archives for October 2009

What Housing Bust?

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During the past three years, home prices grew in the beer-guzzling heartland and fell in the wine-sipping coastal states.

If you're a beef-eating, beer-guzzling, pick-up driving resident of heartland America, there's a good chance you escaped the housing bust. But pesto-chomping, chardonnay-sipping, hybrid-driving city-slickers were probably out of luck.

Over the past three years, 23 states recorded home price gains in the majority of their metro areas, according to analytics firm Fiserv. And where were most of those gainers? In much of the so-called heartland: the South, the Plains and most of the non-coastal West.

Meanwhile, the 16 states that posted declines were led by much of New England and the Northeast, plus California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

Most telling, however, was that the 12 remaining states — those that posted mixed results in their metro areas — were found in every region of America.

And even in the mixed results states, such as New York, the bust hit "blue" metro areas, like New York City and Long Island (both down 21.7%), and spared "red" upstate cities. Buffalo prices grew 8.3%, Syracuse climbed 8.4%, Utica gained 10.4%, and Binghamton was up 17.7%.

The states where metro markets rose generally share two characteristics, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: low prices and open space.

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Further Home Price Declines Forecast Despite Recent Gains

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Contrary to popular opinion, home prices have not bottomed out, according to the financial information and analysis firm Fiserv.

The firm projects median home prices will drop 11.3 percent by June 30 of next year. It predicts declines in 342 of 381 markets over the next year. Only then will prices stabilize, and rise 3.6 percent in 2011, the firm predicts.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index had seemed to indicate prices had already stabilized. The composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June, and July, and home prices gained 3.6 percent nationwide.

But it now looks like that may have been a blip due to the impact of the tax credit for first-time homebuyers, analysts said. By the end of November, when it expires, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break.

In Fiserv’s latest forecast, the markets that will have the steepest declines are those with the greatest number of foreclosures.  [Are these new opportunities for ]

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Foreclosures Hit All-Time High!

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Just when you thought foreclosure filings were stabilizing, they hit another all-time high with almost 938,000 homeowners filing in the third quarter, according to Realty Trac.  This is a 5% increase from the previous quarter.

Six states account for 62% of the nations foreclosures:
California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation's total foreclosure activity in the third quarter.  That accounts for 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

Although California's foreclosure activity decreased almost 2% from Q2 there were still 250,054 properties that received a foreclosure filing.   That was a 10% drop in default notices but a 4% increase in scheduled auctions and 12% increase in REOs.

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Is the US Currency Dying?

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I have avoided this subject since it is extremely comprehensive and difficult to comprehend. But out of popular request, by you my readers, I have decided to tackle the subject of US currency valuations, its impacts, and related investor fear in this article.

The U.S. dollar is the preferred world reserve currency and the most powerful instrument both domestic and international. This article explores how you, the , are impacted from its valuation and what we should be doing as a nation to best manage it.

Fear is certainly not unwarranted given that a swing in dollar valuation against foreign currencies impacts the price of almost all U.S. goods. In particular, investors of U.S. Real Estate and U.S. Equities watch our currency very closely to monitor the future health of our economy. When the dollar is highly valued compared to other currencies the US consumer reaps lower domestic prices for all imported consumer goods and materials (everything from toys to building materials). Of course a highly valued U.S. dollar makes all of our exported goods more expensive to international consumers.

In contrast a weak US dollar makes imported consumer goods more expensive and exported goods less expensive to the rest of the world. Large swings create havoc to our economy and make monetary policy difficult at best. Ultimately, ourselves and the international community strive for a predictable and stable U.S. currency. This allows us to regulate our monetary policy more effectively and stabilizes the prices of goods and services. From time to time we have seen our international suppliers/buyers manipulate our currency in hopes of getting more out of the U.S. consumer, however given our recent economic woes, most of the international community is trying to create dollar stability.

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Flipping Homes No Longer Profitable, Investors Pursue A Long-Term Strategy

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Homeowners are facing an economic crunch from the housing crash, but investors often face even more severe repercussions. More than 1 in 3 foreclosures are of investment properties, and should the foreclosure epidemic worsen as forecast, that number is expected to rise as more investors walk away from mortgages.

During the real estate boom investors and speculators bought homes, fixed them up and many sold within months. But the real estate crash prevents them from doing just that. Living in a home intended to be an has become the answer for some investors, while others select to rent the property. More than 240,000 homes sit vacant nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A key strategy of buying a home to flip has gone by the wayside as more and more purchase properties for the long term. Just when and how long it will take to reap profits from their investments is an uncertainty with some economists saying that it could take more than 10 years for the market to become healthy enough to make a good profit.

In his book “The Millionaire Real Estate Investor”, Gary Keller, founder of Keller Williams Realty International, keeps a basic theme: “Buy real estate right, pay it down and pay it off.” The ultimate goal should be to own lots of real estate free and clear for maximum cash flow. That mantra is attracting millions of investors and wannabe investors back into the depressed housing market to invest.

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