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When Will Housing Prices Drop or Crash?

August 11, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Will the Housing Market Crash

As more signs show that the housing market is already slowing down in 2022, many people are wondering: Will the market crash or collapse in the near future? The housing market is cooling as the economy is shrinking. The stock market is falling as inflation soars. Google trends include “Is the U.S. in a recession?” If the country isn't in a recession, it may be close. Those with PTSD from the Great

Recession question if another downturn may destroy the housing market. Housing caused the worst financial crisis in recent memory. When shoddy mortgages crumbled, the nation was left with foreclosures, numerous new houses remained empty, and millions of Americans were suddenly underwater. Throughout the preceding century, the housing market met considerable barriers, but none, with the exception of the Great Depression of 1929, led to the decrease in home values that happened during the Great Recession of 2007.

It is also important to note that not all economic downturns dampen the real estate market. Despite the economic downturn, the home market and demand remained robust during the 2001 recession. The housing market has been subjected to a number of severe hurdles during the course of the previous century; but, with the exception of 1929's Great Depression, none of these challenges have resulted in a decrease in house values comparable to that of 2007's Great Recession.

Is the Housing Market Crash Going to Crash in 2022?

In 2022, most Americans don't want another 18 months of hardship. The housing market's recent pandemic boom, with skyrocketing prices, bidding wars, and an influx of investors, has parallels to that previous time. However, this time, the housing market won't crash or trigger a recession and may even assist the country's recovery. The majority of real estate professionals do not believe that the housing market of 2022 is in a bubble or poses a threat to the faltering economy.

This is despite the fact that home prices have risen by more than 31 percent nationally in only two years. The median list price figures on Realtor.com® are from June 2020 to June 2022. This time around, there are far more purchasers than available properties, the exact opposite of what occurred in the 2000s. The majority of bad mortgages have been eliminated. Lenders have significantly stricter requirements on borrowers.

However, this does not mean the economy is immune to the recession. Two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, often indicate an economic collapse. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, GDP decreased by 0.9% in the second quarter of the year, following a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter.

The unemployment rate remained extremely low in June, at only 3.6%. Despite the fact that more corporations are implementing hiring freezes and laying off staff, there are still a large number of organizations competing for personnel. If the country were in a recession, many more people would undoubtedly be unemployed, and companies would not be complaining about a lack of qualified applicants.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the nation isn’t in a recession, a sentiment echoed by President Joe Biden.

“I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession, and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well,” Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday.

According to Realtor.com, the housing shortage is simply too severe, with many more individuals trying to purchase and rent houses than there are available. In addition, the mortgage sector took action against loans that ballooned in size or were intended for borrowers to fail. And only purchasers with a consistent, verifiable income may qualify for mortgages.

The housing market was very different during the Great Recession In 2005 and 2006, 20% of mortgages went to persons who didn't meet regular lending conditions. They were called Subprime borrowers. Subprime lending has a higher risk, given the lower credit rating of borrowers. 75% of subprime loans were adjustable-rate mortgages with low initial rates and a scheduled reset after two to three years. Government promotion of homeownership prompted banks to slash rates and credit criteria, sparking a house-buying frenzy that drove the median home price up 55% from 2000 to 2007.

Nowadays, things are very different. Even if a recession occurs in 2022 or 2023, experts do not anticipate the widespread unemployment that characterized the Great Recession. They also anticipate that the recession will be quite brief. This means that there will be fewer homeowners unable to pay their mortgages. Those who are struggling may decide to sell their houses, maybe even at a profit, rather than allow them to be lost to foreclosures and short sales.

Without a lot of cheap homes flooding the housing market, home prices should remain strong to prevent any crash coming. 

Many tapped-out homeowners are taking a step back as mortgage interest rates progressively rise into the 5%-plus range or close to 6%. Some no longer qualify for mortgages big enough to finance the purchase of the type of home they desire. Others cannot afford the increased rates and prices or do not wish to purchase at the housing market's peak. Some individuals are taking a wait-and-see strategy out of fear of a recession.

As a result, fewer properties are selling, bidding wars are subsiding, and bids beyond the asking price are decreasing. Numerous house sellers have been compelled to reduce their asking prices. In the event of a recession, mortgage rates are anticipated to decline. This should reintroduce buyers (who did not lose jobs) to the housing market. When home sales will increase, the economy as a whole will benefit. This is how the housing market can assist the nation in climbing out of a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, and the eight economists who sit on it, are the official arbiter of whether the economy has entered into a recession. It has yet to make a determination.

“We’ll wait and see,” says Hale. Whatever happens, “I don’t expect another housing crash.” “In today’s housing market, we have a decade’s worth of underbuilding, which means there’s a lot more demand than supply,” says Hale. That imbalance should keep home prices stable. “It’s unlikely we will see big home price declines as we saw in the late 2000s.”

Will the Housing Market Crash

Millennial Housing Demand Will Keep The Market From Crashing

Millennials and Gen Z want more housing. As of July 2019, 166 million Americans aged Millennial or younger are potential homebuyers. According to the National Association of Realtors, first-time buyers were responsible for 30% of sales in June, up from 27% in May and down from 31% in June 2021. Most first-time buyers are younger than 40, indicating a broad buyer pool and robust demand, especially given low home inventories.

We won't see a decline since home inventory hasn't grown in 10 years. In a few years, Gen Z will be 30 and more financially competent to become homes than Millenials were at their age. This suggests house demand will remain strong, if not rise, while inventory lags. The extremely low supply is driving up home prices, which is another reason why housing experts believe the market will remain strong for years to come.

The fundamental reason house prices have risen so fast in the past two years of the pandemic is a supply-demand imbalance, And, after not building nearly enough houses over the previous decade, it will take at least many years for homebuilders to add enough new supply to balance the market.

The months of supply in a balanced market would be roughly six months—the time it would take to exhaust all homes for sale at the current sales rate. However, the current market has only 3.0 months of supply (up from 2.5 months in June 2021), indicating a significant imbalance in favor of sellers. The slowdown in housing construction continued into June as housing starts fell to their lowest level since September 2021. Housing starts fell by 32k units in June to 1,559,000 (annualized).

With building permits falling for the third month in a row, evidence point to continued weakness in house development, particularly in the single-family category. As mortgage rates remain at levels last seen at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, it is anticipated that demand will continue to decline throughout the year but there are no signs of a housing market crashing again this year or in 2023.

Pandemic-induced housing boom will slow down somewhat. The slowing economy, combined with inflation and interest rates eroding consumer purchasing power, presents large challenges for the housing market through the rest of the year. That said, a strong labor market remains supportive of demand, and improving supply conditions should help keep the construction market from rapidly deteriorating.

Today's buyers are facing challenges in the form of high prices and mortgage rates. House prices are continuing to grow and new home constrictions lag behind, leaving them in constrained housing conditions. Some buyers move from large cities to cheaper metros. Buying a house today during inflation, even if it means postponing other expenditures, might save money if prices and equity grow. Buyers may save by buying a property and locking in a rate before rates and prices rise further.

The economy affects housing supply and demand. If the economy is strong, more people will purchase and sell real estate. If the economy isn't functioning well, consumers have less income due to inflation. Their wages and weekly income aren't rising as fast. Supply and demand affect home values. Even if inflation is high, housing prices will decline due to oversupply.

For example, between 2006 and 2007, failure to make mortgage payments resulted in the foreclosure of millions of homeowners, resulting in a steep decline in house values, an increase in financial troubles, and, eventually, the bursting of the housing bubble. The ability to predict when the housing market would implode depends on a number of things. After all, is said and done, you must consider the following questions. Are homes still being sold in your neighborhood? Do prices fluctuate frequently?  Are there numerous home foreclosures?

Buyers and investors in the housing market must be able to see through real estate agent hype and bluff. Answering these questions can help you understand how your local housing market is performing, but there is no specific formula for determining whether a housing crisis is near. If you are unsure of what you are witnessing in your particular market, an experienced local realtor will help put your queries in context.

When Will the Housing Market Crash Again?

What are the housing market crash predictions for the next five years? Prior to answering this question, it is crucial to comprehend what causes real estate markets to fall in the first place. First, it is essential to recognize that housing markets do not suddenly crash. Multiple variables will exert pressure on a market over time, eventually leading to its collapse. When home values climb too rapidly, a housing bubble arises. When there's demand and the capacity to buy, it may increase. When there aren't enough houses for sale to match demand, competition drives up prices.

When a housing bubble expands and pressure builds, the housing market may crash. Interest rate hikes slow the economy. Demand and jobs might drop. Oversupply promotes a buyer's market and cheaper pricing. The real estate market might then fall or stall down. How can you know how awful and how fast it will go better? It depends on how sustainable development was before the slowdown and how serious the causes are.

Despite the fact that home prices continue to set records, a panel of housing specialists and economists polled by Zillow believes the market is not in a bubble. The most recent Zillow Home Price Expectations study interviewed more than 100 experts from academia, government, and the private sector about the status of the housing market and future growth, inflation estimates, and recession risks. Sixty percent of those polled do not believe the US housing market is now in a bubble, compared to 32 percent who say it is and 8 percent who are unsure.

 

will the housing market crash
Source: Zillow

Strong market fundamentals, including demographics, restricted inventory, and altering housing tastes, led respondents to reject the housing bubble argument. Sound loan underwriting and the majority of fixed-rate, fully amortized mortgages led to low credit risks. Another substantial minority opposed the word “bubble,” which suggests an imminent crash. Unaffordable prices in the absence of record-low mortgage rates are the main concern of housing bubble believers.

A hot market doesn't always indicate a bubble. Although a recession is imminent, today's housing market is very different from the mid-2000s. This market is supported by robust fundamentals and sound mortgages, aspects that won't alter soon. Therefore, most of the housing crash predictions show us that prices aren’t likely to drop in the near future.

Despite a more than 100-basis point increase in mortgage rates since the previous survey just three months ago and the potential for higher rates in coming months, the panel’s expectations for 2022 home price appreciation still rose to 9.3% from 9.0% last quarter. This would be a significant step down from the 19.6% appreciation observed over the 2021 calendar year, but still high above long-term historical averages.

Looking forward, the most optimistic quartile of respondents predicted prices would rise 46.1% between now and the end of 2026, while the most conservative quartile predicted a cumulative rise of only 9.3% in that time. On average, respondents are forecasting a 26.4% cumulative rise by the end of 2026.

The next 5 years will also see huge technological changes in the real estate sector, which could impact the demand and supply. The housing market is coming off a year in which home prices in the United States increased by an unsustainable 18.8%. Will the market continue to grow at this rate or will it be a little less frenetic this year?

The housing market is even tighter now than it was prior to the spring 2021 housing frenzy. The lack of inventory and decade-high interest rates likely weighed heavily on the minds of prospective buyers in April. An already challenging market with limited inventory and record price growth has become even more unfavorable for homebuyers as a result of an unprecedented interest rate increase. Even industry titans like Zillow decreased their bullishness in May, decreasing their projected home price growth rate from 20.9% to 11.6% growth through April 2023.

According to another study by Zillow, the total value of private residential real estate in the United States increased by a record $6.9 trillion in 2021, to $43.4 trillion. Since the lows of the post-recession market and the corresponding building slump, the value of housing in the United States has more than doubled. The most expensive third of homes account for more than 60% of the total market value. The market value hit the $40 trillion mark in June of last year and since has been gaining an average of more than half a trillion dollars per month.

One of the most widely held housing market predictions for 2022 & 2023 is that inventory will remain scarce but price appreciation will be slower than it was in the last two years. While spring and summer will likely see an increase in listings, it is unlikely that there will be enough to meet demand. The housing market has been particularly robust in the pandemic, with high demand for homes in almost every area of the nation. The same trend will follow from 2022 to 2023.

The shortage of inventory has created a red-hot housing market, with homes selling within hours of being listed, frequently for well over the asking price. According to many housing experts, buyers can predict similar trends this year to those seen over the last two years: increased prices, low inventory, and quick turnaround.

However, some significant hurdles are approaching the US housing market. Most experts had predicted mortgage rates for housing to rise this year. The cost of borrowing money through mortgages has been steadily increasing this year. Most experts predicted that mortgage rates would climb this year, but they did so more quickly than expected, averaging more than 4% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in mid-February. Around mid-April, it surged to 5.28 percent, the highest level since April 2010, and the uptick continues.

Monthly affordability will suffer as interest rates rise, but we'll also lose more of the investment-type buyers looking for once-in-a-lifetime leverage. As a result, rising interest rates may also imply a more stable market. With rates that low in 2021, all kinds of buyers rushed in, and with little housing supply to match, price rise has been ferocious.

This also emphasizes affordability. The basics of housing needs would still continue to drive primary purchases forward. It's a good thing that the housing market will be less heated in 2022 and 2023. Let's take a closer look at why the housing market is showing some signs of a slowdown in 2022 & beyond.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said he is concerned about a harsh landing in the housing market, but he believes the market and economy will not collapse as they did last time. He believes that for the 2023 housing market, home prices will level off, decreasing in certain sections of the country while rising somewhat in others. In comparison to the rise in 2022, this prediction for 2023 appears fairly reasonable.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows that higher mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in the coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in their forecast. Their forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 1% from May 2022 to June 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5% from May 2022 to May 2023.

housing market forecast
Source: CoreLogic [May 2022 to May 2023]
As intended, a slowing home price increase indicates the damping effect of rising mortgage rates on housing demand. As a result of a roughly 50 percent increase in monthly mortgage costs over the past several months, there are now fewer purchasers competing for a consistently constrained inventory. And despite the fact that the yearly home price increase currently surpasses 20 percent, CoreLogic anticipates a dramatic decline in the next year.

However, the normalization of overheated purchasing circumstances should lead to a greater equilibrium between buyers and sellers and a stronger housing market overall. Nationally, home prices increased 20.2% year over year in May. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (33.2%), Tennessee (27.4%), and Arizona (27.3%). These large cities continued to experience price increases in April, with Phoenix on top at 28.7% year over year.

house price forecast
Source: CoreLogic

Fannie Mae's housing market forecast released in June 2022 is also less bullish. As the year proceeds, the cumulative impacts of greater inflation and higher interest rates are anticipated to weigh more on economic growth and house sales. Significantly higher mortgage rates are now the key restriction on the housing market.

The ESR Group anticipates a 13.5 percent reduction in total house sales in 2022, which is a steeper decline than the 11.1 percent decline predicted last month, and a commensurate decline in mortgage originations to $2.6 trillion in 2022 and $2.2 trillion in 2023. The significant, sudden rise in interest rates is beginning to be felt widely in housing affordability. The prospective monthly payment on a typical new mortgage is climbing dramatically due to which both new and existing home sales continue to slow.

The FMHPI is an indicator for typical house price inflation in the United States. It shows that home prices increased by 11.3 percent in 2020 and 15.9 percent in 2021, as a result of robust housing demand and record low mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac's quarterly housing forecast released in April 2022, house value growth in 2022 will be less than half of what we've witnessed last year.

As a result of the increase in mortgage rates, Freddie Mac predicts that housing demand will weaken and house sales will decrease to 6,7 million in 2022 and 6,6 million in 2023. As a result of rising mortgage rates, we anticipate that home price appreciation will decelerate in 2022, with a full-year house price increase of 10.4% in 2022 and 5% in 2023.

The increase in house price growth will be less transitory than the increase in consumer prices, as the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle with a shortage of available housing for many months to come. The government-sponsored enterprise predicts that home purchase mortgage originations will increase from $1.9 trillion in 2021 to $2.1 trillion in 2022 and $2.2 trillion in 2023, as a result of rising housing prices and anticipated home sales.

With rising mortgage rates anticipated to persist, they foresee a decline in refinancing activity. According to their projections, refinancing originations will decrease from $2.8 trillion in 2021 to $960 billion in 2022 and $535 billion in 2023. From a peak of $4.8 trillion in 2021, they expect total originations to decrease to $3.1 trillion in 2022 and $2.8 trillion in 2023.

Housing Market Forecast 2023
Source: Freddie Mac

Sources:

  • https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/recession-will-housing-market-survive/
  • https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
  • https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/will-housing-market-crash/
  • https://www.zillow.com/research/zhpe-q2-2022-not-a-bubble-31093/
  • https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210715_quarterly_economic_forecast.page
  • https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspxhttps://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Bubble, Housing Downturn, Housing Downturn in a Recession, Housing Market, housing market crash, Will the housing market crash?

Where Are Housing Prices Falling in 2022?

August 8, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

where are housing prices falling

Redfin revealed its “risk score” on Friday, which identifies the home markets that are most vulnerable to a “housing slump.” The greater a market's “risk score,” the more likely it is that house prices will fall year over year.  Redfin examined 98 regional housing markets and evaluated indicators such as home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Among the 98 markets measured by Redfin, Riverside had the highest likelihood of seeing a “housing downturn.”

It was followed by Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Bakersfield, Phoenix, Tampa, and Tucson. Popular migration destinations where home prices soared during the pandemic, such as Boise, Phoenix, and Tampa, are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn amplified and year-over-year home prices decline if the economy enters a recession, a scenario that some economists believe is likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble.

<<<Also Read: Will the Housing Market Crash in 2022 or 2023? >>>

Homeowners in those markets who are considering selling should market their properties as soon as possible to avoid price drops. Rust Belt cities like Cleveland and Buffalo, which are still inexpensive, are the most resilient to a housing market crash. The U.S. housing market slowed significantly in the spring due to rising mortgage rates. Redfin studied which metros are most vulnerable to home-price reductions if the country enters a recession and which are most immune to an economic slump.

Recession-proof northern metros, including Cleveland and Buffalo, NY, are relatively inexpensive. Prospective homebuyers in these places can proceed with confidence. Redfin's examination of 98 U.S. metros with relevant data utilizes home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Each metro is given an overall risk score relative to the others. 100 indicates the highest possibility of a housing market slump, including home-price decreases, while 0 indicates the lowest.

“Recession fears are escalating, mostly because the Fed has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation and cool consumer demand. Higher interest rates led to surging mortgage rates, which have already cooled down the housing market,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “If the U.S. does enter a recession, we’re unlikely to see a housing-market crash like in the Great Recession because the factors affecting the economy are different: Most homeowners have a fair amount of home equity and not much debt and unemployment is low.”

Housing Markets at Risk of Falling Home Prices

If the U.S. enters a recession, Riverside's home market will chill the most. It has the highest danger score of any major U.S. city, 84. It's more likely than other metros to see prices drop year over year during a recession or economic slowdown, according to housing and economic statistics. Riverside, which includes San Bernardino, Ontario, and Palm Springs, has variable house values and was a favorite location during the epidemic for both permanent movers and second-home buyers.

Riverside is followed by Boise (76.9), Cape Coral, FL (76.7), North Port, FL (75), and Las Vegas (74.2).

Sacramento, CA (73.1), Bakersfield, CA (72.2), Phoenix (72), Tampa, FL (70.7), and Tucson, AZ (70.1) round out the top 10.

Many of these housing markets, like Riverside, are popular migration destinations or have quickly growing property prices, both of which increase their likelihood of a housing slump. Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Phoenix were among the 20 fastest-cooling areas in May when mortgage rates reached 5.5%. As the economy continues to decline, prices may fall in many of these metros. Six of the 10 areas most at risk of downturns are among the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving from one metro to another.

Maricopa County (Phoenix) and Riverside County gained more residents from other parts of the U.S. than anywhere else in 2021, according to the U.S. Census. The most vulnerable metros have likewise seen an outsized price rise. North Port has the nation's fastest-growing house values, up 30.5 percent year over year in May, followed by Tampa (28.1 percent) and Las Vegas (26.8 percent ). Overall, nine of the ten most vulnerable locations had faster-growing house values than the national median (the exception is Sacramento, however, home prices there rose more than 40% throughout the pandemic, reaching $610,000 in May 2022).

Several of those metros went from inexpensive to unaffordable during the epidemic, owing in part to the migration of individuals from other locations. Among them is Boise, where the typical home price increased from $330,000 to $550,000 between May 2020 and May 2022, and Phoenix, where it increased from $300,000 to $485,000.

“Boise’s market is already turning around, as a lot of the people who moved to Idaho during the pandemic are either moving back to their hometowns or cashing in and moving to more affordable places. The housing market was hot during the pandemic, largely because of out-of-town buyers,” said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton.

Three at-risk metros are in California and three in Florida. San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco experienced relatively moderate price increases throughout the epidemic, its people tend to have high salaries and considerable home equity, and their housing markets started falling fast in the first half of 2022, mainly owing to collapsing tech stocks. Not all homes in these metros will lose value. Large single-family houses in spread-out areas are recession-proof.

Housing Markets in Which Prices Are Unlikely to Fall

Relatively affordable Rust Belt metros are most resilient in the face of a recession. In case of a recession, Akron, Ohio has the lowest risk of experiencing a housing decline. It has the lowest total risk score of any major US city at 29.6. Low home-price volatility, a low debt-to-income ratio, a small number of second houses, and the fact that properties in Akron are unlikely to be flipped are some of the characteristics that make the city relatively stable.

With an overall risk score of 30.4, Akron is followed by Philadelphia, Montgomery County, PA (31.4), El Paso, TX (32.2), and Cleveland (32.4). The top ten include Cincinnati (32.6), Boston (32.6), Buffalo, NY (33.1), Kansas City, MO (33.4), and Rochester, NY (34.4). Almost all of those metros are inexpensive and have relatively slow-increasing prices, both of which would benefit their housing markets in the event of a recession.

Almost all of the most resilient metros are located in the northern United States, either in the Rust Belt or on the East Coast. Three of them are in Ohio, two in New York, and two in Pennsylvania. In nine of the ten most resilient metros, prices climbed at a slower rate than the national average (El Paso is the exception).

Seven of the 10 metros least in danger of a housing downturn had a median sale price below $300,000 in May, and nine of them were below the $431,000 national median. Affordability benefits property markets in a recession because more people can buy houses, and such locations may attract out-of-town buyers. Boston is pricey, although property prices climbed modestly throughout the epidemic. It's busy and lost residents as remote work became prevalent.

U.S. Metros Most and Least Susceptible to a Housing Downturn in the Next Recession

Ranked by highest to the lowest chance of a housing downturn. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score for each metro, relative to the other metros in this analysis. The highest possible score is 100 and the lowest possible score is 0. The indicators are as follows: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, the year-over-year change in domestic migration, the share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply. Each factor is weighted equally.

U.S. Metro Area

Overall Score Average Home-Loan-to-Value Ratio, 2021 Percent of Homes Flipped in 2021 Rank: How Quickly Housing Market Cooled in First Half of 2022 Net Domestic Migration in 2021, YoY Share of Second Homes, 2021 Price Growth in 2021, YoY
Riverside, CA 84 83% 4.50% 15 19,204 7.70% 21.00%
Boise, ID 76.9 6 6,782 6.00% 30.90%
Cape Coral, FL 76.7 81% 2.90% 11 7,345 23.40% 23.60%
North Port, FL 75 79% 4.40% 18 8,283 20.20% 23.30%
Las Vegas, NV 74.2 84% 8.30% 12 -15,143 7.60% 18.60%
Sacramento, CA 73.1 81% 5.40% 2 4,157 4.30% 19.30%
Bakersfield, CA 72.2 87% 3.80% 21 6,111 2.50% 17.30%
Phoenix, AZ 72 82% 10.30% 17 -15,530 7.20% 25.40%
Tampa, FL 70.7 85% 7.40% 22 524 8.10% 19.60%
Tucson, AZ 70.1 84% 7.70% 54 -2,677 7.10% 21.50%
San Diego, CA 69.8 81% 5.30% 8 -8,189 3.70% 17.50%
Jacksonville, FL 69.3 85% 7.20% 36 4,136 6.20% 16.60%
Stockton, CA 68.2 84% 4.70% 5 3,578 1.00% 19.30%
Knoxville, TN 67 86% 4.60% 13 4,527 5.20% 18.30%
Orlando, FL 63.8 85% 6.40% 31 -6,536 8.70% 16.70%
Charleston, SC 63.4 85% 3.80% 67 -2,921 7.60% 15.40%
West Palm Beach, FL 63.3 80% 3.10% 30 972 12.00% 17.40%
Fresno, CA 60.6 85% 4.70% 37 2,719 2.90% 17.90%
Raleigh, NC 60.4 83% 8.90% 42 3,430 2.60% 17.50%
Oxnard, CA 59.8 79% 2.50% 28 323 3.30% 16.70%
Salt Lake City, UT 57.7 -3,020 2.00% 22.80%
Columbia, SC 56.9 90% 4.40% 2,296 3.20%
Providence, RI 56.6 85% 2.70% 44 3,664 3.90% 15.40%
Atlanta, GA 56.4 86% 9.90% 47 -4,229 2.20% 19.20%
Miami, FL 56.3 82% 2.90% 53 -5,120 5.90% 18.60%
Charlotte, NC 56.1 85% 10.10% -6,444 2.70% 16.50%
Virginia Beach, VA 55.8 92% 3.20% 80 864 3.40% 8.30%
Tacoma, WA 55.5 9 -3,571 1.70% 19.80%
Detroit, MI 54.8 87% 5.20% 70 -2,062 1.00% 15.40%
Los Angeles, CA 54.8 79% 4.10% 46 -69,329 1.90% 17.30%
Austin, TX 54.6 16 -8,609 3.90% 31.60%
Portland, OR 54.3 82% 3.70% 14 -17,716 2.30% 15.40%
Anaheim, CA 53.9 76% 4.50% 20 -6,644 3.80% 16.00%
Denver, CO 53.8 82% 6.90% 7 -18,063 2.40% 16.70%
Colorado Springs, CO 53.7 87% 5.00% 693 2.50%
Baton Rouge, LA 52.4 89% 3.00% 2,287 2.40% 9.80%
Greenville, SC 52.1 85% 3.50% 32 1,771 4.70% 14.00%
Winston-Salem, NC 51.9 87% 5.10% 2.70% 13.70%
Grand Rapids, MI 51.7 86% 3.60% 29 1,028 2.40% 15.20%
Greensboro, NC 51.7 87% 6.70% 38 -181 2.10% 11.80%
Warren, MI 50.5 86% 2.90% 35 6,180 1.60% 11.40%
Tulsa, OK 50.1 88% 3.40% 45 2,325 2.10% 12.50%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 49.9 82% 3.00% 72 -5,121 7.50% 13.30%
Fort Worth, TX 49.6 50 1,978 1.70% 18.30%
Nashville, TN 49.3 84% 8.30% 48 -6,093 3.40% 17.00%
Allentown, PA 48.6 87% 2.20% 62 3,722 3.40% 14.20%
Camden, NJ 47.9 88% 3.00% 75 4,300 0.50% 17.90%
Houston, TX 47.7 24 -334 2.90% 15.50%
Seattle, WA 47.6 79% 1.90% 4 -37,365 1.80% 17.20%
Nassau County, NY 47.4 80% 3.60% 58 12,296 4.70% 15.20%
Albuquerque, NM 46.8 -1,714 2.80%
New Orleans, LA 46.6 88% 2.90% 23 -3,930 3.40% 10.70%
San Antonio, TX 46.6 40 -138 2.90% 15.10%
San Jose, CA 46.4 74% 2.50% 1 -22,661 0.80% 13.60%
San Francisco, CA 46.3 72% 1.90% 10 -55,918 2.40% 4.80%
Oakland, CA 45.8 78% 2.60% 3 -23,280 1.00% 16.30%
Dallas, TX 45.4 40 -5,685 1.70% 17.90%
Richmond, VA 45.4 87% 3.70% 59 1,995 1.40% 12.30%
Oklahoma City, OK 45.3 88% 5.10% 52 476 1.70% 10.60%
Washington, D.C. 44.2 87% 2.50% 28 -35,800 1.50% 10.10%
New Haven, CT 44.1 87% 2.00% 82 4,492 1.90% 15.80%
Birmingham, AL 43.4 88% 5.90% 68 95 1.40% 8.40%
Little Rock, AR 43.1 89% 4.90% 43 472 1.80% 10.70%
Frederick, MD 42.9 84% 2.00% 25 -58 0.90% 11.70%
Memphis, TN 42.7 87% 7.50% 33 -535 1.20% 13.30%
Honolulu, HI 42.6 79% 0.50% 19 6.20% 7.80%
St. Louis, MO 42.2 86% 3.40% -2,214 1.30% 10.10%
Baltimore, MD 41.9 86% 2.60% 74 6,085 1.40% 8.50%
Bridgeport, CT 41.7 81% 1.10% 88 8,871 2.00% 11.60%
Worcester, MA 40.8 86% 1.80% 57 3,354 1.20% 16.10%
Indianapolis, IN 39.9 41 902 1.40% 13.50%
Newark, NJ 39.3 84% 1.90% 73 7,348 2.80% 13.20%
Wichita, KS 39.3 -1,813 1.10% 12.50%
Lake County, IL 38.6 85% 1.80% 87 2,746 1.70% 14.40%
Louisville, KY 38.6 87% 4.80% 34 -378 1.20% 9.70%
Wilmington, DE 37.8 88% 2.80% 64 738 1.80% 11.30%
Hartford, CT 36.8 86% 1.70% 80 7,182 1.80% 12.00%
Minneapolis, MN 36.8 85% 3.70% 50 -10,673 1.30% 11.10%
Gary, IN 36.7 939 1.20% 9.70%
Pittsburgh, PA 36.4 87% 1.60% 76 -337 1.50% 12.70%
Elgin, IL 35.8 84% 1.10% 60 3,590 0.60% 11.50%
New York, NY 35.4 78% 1.70% 48 -2,01,570 2.80% 12.30%
Syracuse, NY 35.2 86% 2.20% 1,510 3.30% 11.00%
Milwaukee, WI 35.1 86% 3.30% 79 -2,993 1.40% 7.20%
Omaha, NE 35.1 87% 4.90% 56 -237 1.30% 9.70%
Albany, NY 34.5 87% 2.00% 90 3,521 2.80% 13.70%
Chicago, IL 34.4 86% 1.80% 70 -32,998 1.30% 11.70%
Columbus, OH 34.2 85% 3.40% 61 2,507 1.40% 13.50%
Rochester, NY 34 85% 2.00% 86 1,330 3.20% 12.60%
Kansas City, MO 33.4 -1,491 1.30% 10.90%
Buffalo, NY 33.1 86% 2.60% 78 1,877 1.40% 17.00%
Boston, MA 32.6 79% 1.20% 63 -23,964 2.80% 12.20%
Cincinnati, OH 32.6 87% 3.90% 84 -360 1.30% 13.90%
Cleveland, OH 32.4 86% 2.50% 71 225 1.20% 9.50%
El Paso, TX 32.2 89 -24 1.80% 13.90%
Montgomery County, PA 31.4 83% 1.80% 66 6,685 0.80% 11.00%
Philadelphia, PA 30.4 86% 2.00% 64 -15,721 1.40% 10.10%
Akron, OH 29.6 87% 2.70% 83 2,029 1.20% 7.90%

 


Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/metros-recession-risk-housing-downturn-2022/

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Downturn, Housing Downturn in a Recession, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, Housing Prices, Recession

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