Archives for August 2011

U.S. Housing Market Intelligence Report (August 2011)

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Categories are graded from A thru F:

Economic Growth: C- (June 2011: D+)
The U.S. economic recovery remains sluggish. Real GDP grew at a 1.3% pace in 2Q11, following downwardly revised growth of 0.4% in 1Q11; far below the 1.9% rate of expansion previously estimated for last quarter. We now have positive Y/Y employment growth for eleven consecutive months, with payrolls expanding by 117,000 in July, up from 46,000 in June, and the unemployment rate dropping from 9.2% to 9.1%. Initial jobless claims fell to 400,000 in July. Government payrolls decreased by 37,000 in July, the ninth straight sequential drop.

The average length of unemployment increased to 40.4 weeks (new record high), and the labor force percentage of those unemployed over 27 weeks dipped slightly from 4.1% to 4.0%. On a positive note, retail sales continue to improve, with Y/Y growth at 8.5%.

Leading Indicators: C- (June 2011: C)
Leading indicators for the economy are mixed this month, with our overall grade for this subsection of indicators dropping from a C in June to C- in July. Many of the leading indicators we analyze have been trending down over the past several months, returning to levels not seen since mid-2009, a time when the U.S. economy was still in the midst of the Great Recession. For example, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index has fallen two consecutive months, dropping to 50.9 (just above the expansion threshold value), a level not seen since July 2009. In addition, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index fell in 2Q11, crossing into negative Y/Y territory for the first time since 2Q09. Corporate profit growth was revised down from last quarter, rising at an 8.8% Y/Y clip in 1Q11, the weakest annual growth rate since Q309. Other leading indicators such as the ECRI Leading Index were relatively flat versus last month.

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Next 2 Years is Prime Time for Real Estate Investors

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Real estate investors are likely to be three times more active than other types of home-buyers in their local markets within the next two years, according to a national survey by Realtor.com operator Move Inc.

Market research firm GfK Custom Research North America conducted the survey on behalf of Move from April 11-15, 2011. The survey included telephone interviews of 1,200 U.S. adults, of which about 200 were identified as real estate investors.  Data was weighted by age, sex, education, race and geographic region.

A third of real estate investors are planning to buy in the next 24 months, compared to 8.6% of typical home-buyers — those planning to purchase a primary residence, vacation home or retirement property.  Another 9.1% of typical home-buyers, and 28% of investors, plan to purchase between two and five years from now.

Among the investors, half plan to hold their properties for five or more years while 11% expect to sell within a year of purchase, according to the survey.

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National Economic Outlook (August 2011)

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Jobs, jobs, jobs! That's what we'll hear from now on through the 2012 election, and rightly so. Although they claim otherwise, Wall Street and the Big Banks are not the essential, indispensable, must-be-bailed-out part of the national economy: it's people with jobs.  Those people account for 70 percent of the economy (the government is 20 percent).

As we've already seen, those people aren't spending very much money these days, needing no more time-share condos, full-size SUVs, leather furniture, and flat-screen TVs. Which means there are fewer jobs for the people who were making those things a few years ago.

The national economy grew at a modest annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of this year, better than the 0.4 percent of the first quarter, but there is some cause for anxiety: personal spending was flat in the second quarter, after growing between 2 and 3 percent in 2010.

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Bad Debt vs. Good Debt

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This is an investing concept that’s not often thought about within the context of real estate, but it’s vital for you to understand the differences between these two types of debt.

Bad debt is typically referred to as consumer debt. What makes bad debt “bad” is the fact that it’s not being used on anything that produces cash flow or appreciates over time. Vacations, clothing, iPads, and anything else that doesn’t work for you in generating a return on that debt is considered bad debt.

Bad debt sources usually come from credit cards, but they can also include car loans, store credit, and personal lines of credit. Interest rates are usually high and are generally higher than most good debt sources.

If that isn’t bad enough, the interest you pay is almost never tax deductible. The only exception to this rule might be a qualifying business expense if you can deduct such an expense.

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Investing vs. Speculating

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It's vital to know the difference between speculation and investing! If you don't, you could make some very bad decisions and lose a lot of money.

Speculation is generally a high risk form of investing. It's done over a very short period of time, ranging anywhere from 1 day on the low end to 6 to 12 months on the high end.

From 2004 to 2006, investors speculated by buying pre-construction properties in Florida, Las Vegas and Phoenix. They'd put properties under contract with builders in these markets, then immediately offer them for sale once the builder finished construction six to twelve months later.

Some investors were fortunate and turned over some nice profits from the appreciation. However, many more were left holding the bag when the market softened and flipping for profit became nearly impossible.

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