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National Economic Outlook (July 2012)

July 16, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Why has this economic recovery been so sluggish? In a normal recovery, job growth would be accelerating at this point, rather than dragging along at the same modest level month after month.

One culprit, off course, is the housing boom that left many homeowners with more debt than their home is worth. Another is the federal government that bailed out the big banks feeding the boom and had no money left to encourage job creation. And a third culprit is local governments that added a million jobs during the property-tax boom rather than banking the money and have now had to shed 500,000 of them.

In short, its the boom, stupid!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

On the Trail of the Housing Recovery

June 25, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One crisp fall Sunday afternoon under bright blue skies, my wife and I visited five homes up for sale. We remembered them by their street names: Big Acre, Blue Silo, Pontiac, Prairie Rose and Lamont. The lineup has a poetic ring to it, but the real music is the potential rates of return from owning them and renting them out.

This was the second weekend we went hunting. It’s been a fascinating experience so far, and what I’ve found tells me the housing recovery is not too far off, despite all the dire talk to the contrary. The investment implications are many and varied.

Being bullish on housing is a contrarian view. In a recent national survey, 37% of homeowners say they think buying a house is a “risky investment.” And 86% think prices will either stay flat or fall.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, housing recovery, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

Real Estate Cycles: Where Are We Now?

June 12, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Real estate prices, as with most financial markets, tend to follow a pattern. For the purpose of this article, we'll call this pattern “The Real Estate Cycle.” There are many theories out there about The Real Estate Cycle, but the one I like best is called “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle.”

Back in the 1930's a real estate economist named Homer Hoyt discovered that real estate prices seemed to ebb and flow on an almost perfect 18 year schedule. Hoyt's theory was later used and refined by now famed economist Fred E. Foldvary to predict the real estate crash of 2008. I'll get into more depth about “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle” shortly, but to me the important part isn't necessarily the 18 year time frame, it is understanding that the real estate market operates in a fairly predictable cycle that can be seen and taken advantage of by smart investors.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Cycles, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

National Economic Outlook (June 2012)

June 4, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

The Wall Street Journal this week said, Grim Job Report Sinks Markets. The bold headline suggests an economy in retreat. After all, it's an election year. But the May job numbers look like more of the same moderate growth we've been getting in recent months.

Overall, jobs were up 1.4 percent in the past year, right in line with the growth rates of previous months. Manufacturing jobs were up 2 percent, including an 8 percent increase in cars. Retail jobs were up just 1 percent but, significantly, jobs at furniture stores were up 2.4 percent. Jobs at restaurants and bars were up 3 percent. Conclusion: consumers are buying big-ticket items and are treating themselves to small luxuries, important signs of optimism.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?  (Part 2)

May 21, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

In Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? part 1, we stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to stable, steady long-term inflation.

But what about all this talk of hyper-inflation?

There are some doom-and-gloomers out there heralding hyper-inflation.  Hyper-inflation means you wake up in the morning and a pound of coffee is $5, but when you go back that afternoon, it’s $7 and by the following morning it’s $10.  In other words, the dollar is in free fall and it takes more and more dollars to buy the same goods and services.  It’s happened many times in other countries in just the last 50 years.  It’s ugly, especially for those who don’t know how to see it coming, how to prepare and what to do when it happens.

Now we understand the argument for hyper-inflation and it’s a good one.  So let’s take a look at why real estate right now makes so much sense.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?

May 15, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

When we interviewed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago, he told us that NOW is a great time to get into real estate – and he specifically pointed to houses.

Fellow billionaire, Warren Buffett, appeared on CNBC a couple of months ago and essentially said the same thing.  In fact, he said if there was an efficient way to do it, he'd like to buy 200,000 single family homes!

You may or may not agree with them at first blush, but when two billionaires (neither of whom are trying to sell you houses) both say the same thing, it's probably worth taking a closer look, don't you think?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Real Estate Investment Opportunities Rise as Rentership Grows

March 6, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

It used to be that home-ownership was a part of the American dream. Home-buyers would scour for properties that suit their needs whether it was for their growing family or for a second home. But the global economic slump that has plagued the real estate market has created a major shift on the housing landscape.

Oliver Chang, Head of U.S. Housing Strategy at Morgan Stanley, recently explained the reason behind this new housing landscape. He opines, “One of the big reasons why we believe the rate of home-ownership is going to decline and more people are going to rent is that it’s just getting harder and harder to get a mortgage and so as people are not able to buy homes, they’re basically forced to rent and we see that continuing.”

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, rental market

Real Estate Investors Can Profit in a Down Market

February 14, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One of the most exciting things about being a real estate investor is knowing what markets will produce the greatest long-term returns – especially while in the middle of a challenging housing market.

In a down market, savvy real estate investors are eager to find out how they can best leverage their resources. And expert forecasts are some of the best tools they can use to back up their strategies. A good example comes from real estate consulting firm John Burns Real Estate (JBRE), which has recently predicted that homeownership will fall from 70.0 percent to 62.1 percent by 2015 due to a weak economy, weak consumer confidence, limited mortgage availability, higher rates of foreclosures and short sales, and other factors.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Bubble, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

The Housing Bust is Over

January 16, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

“The bursting of the global housing bubble is only halfway through,” The Economist magazine wrote recently.

I disagree…

Here in the U.S. at least, the housing bubble is completely over.

It drives me nuts when I hear commentators say, “We're halfway through,” and, “We have more pain to come.”

The fact is, right now, houses in America are the best value they've been in many generations. It's not hard to understand…

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Bubble, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, The Economist

The Asset Class of Single-Family Real Estate

December 28, 2011 by Marco Santarelli

If there’s one thing that Morgan Stanley would like to advise to you, it’s to take a look at single-family homes and consider it as part of your real estate investing strategy.

That’s right, these properties have become hot among real estate investors recently considering the shift in the US property market from home ownership to rentals (or as Morgan Stanley puts it, a “renter-heavy society”). It’s exactly the new real estate paradigm!  Even Bank of America and the Federal Housing Finance Agency have sought measures to reduce the impact of mortgage delinquency by working on an REO rental program for its underwater borrowers.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

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