Archives for September 2025

Thinking about buying a home or maybe refinancing your current one? You're likely wondering what will happen with mortgage rates over the next year. Well, I've got some good news, with a healthy dose of reality. As of mid-September 2025, mortgage rates are hovering around 6.2-6.3% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, a welcome drop from earlier in the year. Looking ahead to September 2026, most experts believe we'll see rates average between 6.1% and 6.5%. While that’s the general direction, it’s not a straight line down, and a lot can still happen.

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 12 Months: Sept 2025 to Sept 2026

I’ve been following the housing market and mortgage trends for a long time, and honestly, it feels like we’ve been on a rollercoaster. Just a few years ago, you could barely find a mortgage under 3%. Now, we're talking about rates in the low 6s. It’s a massive shift, and it’s completely reshaped how people approach buying and selling homes.

The big question on everyone’s mind is: are rates going to keep falling? And if so, how much?

How Did We Get Here? A Look Back at Rate Swings

To understand where we’re going, it helps to know where we’ve been. The last five years have been wild. Remember 2020 and 2021? Mortgage rates were unbelievably low, averaging around 3.38% in 2020 and even dipping to 3.15% in 2021. The Federal Reserve, trying to boost the economy during the early days of the pandemic, slashed interest rates to near zero. This made borrowing money incredibly cheap, and it fueled a huge boom in home buying. Everyone wanted a piece of that low-interest-rate pie.

But then, inflation started to bite. As the economy warmed up and prices for everything from groceries to gas started climbing, the Federal Reserve had to act. Starting in 2022, they began raising their key interest rate aggressively to try and cool things down. This directly pushed mortgage rates up, making them climb to an average of 5.53% that year. By 2023, the average hit a staggering 7.00%, and for a while, we even saw rates go over 8% – something we hadn't seen since the year 2000! This made owning a home feel out of reach for many people.

Fast forward to 2024, and things started to calm down a bit. Rates averaged around 6.90% for the year. Then, in September 2025, the Federal Reserve made another move. They cut their benchmark rate by 0.25%, partly because the job market started showing signs of slowing down. This fed into the recent drop, bringing those 30-year fixed rates down to roughly 6.26% by mid-September 2025. It’s a significant change, and it’s definitely making people reconsider their housing plans.

Here's a simplified look at how those averages have changed:

What's Driving Mortgage Rates Now?

So, what’s really influencing these numbers? It’s not just one thing, but a combination of big economic forces:

• What the Fed is Doing: The Federal Reserve's key interest rate is like the steering wheel for mortgage rates. When they raise it, mortgage rates tend to go up; when they lower it, rates usually follow. Most signs point to them potentially making a couple more quarter-point cuts in 2025 if the economy continues to behave.
• Inflation: This is the big one the Fed has been fighting. If inflation stays under control, around the predicted 3.3% mark, rates might stay in that comfortable mid-6% range. But if prices start rising faster than expected, the Fed might hold off on cutting rates, or even raise them again, which would push mortgage rates back up.
• The 10-Year Treasury Yield: This is a benchmark for many loans, including mortgages. It’s closely watched. Currently, it's hovering around 4.1-4.5%. The difference between this yield and the mortgage rate, called the spread, is important. If that spread widens, mortgage rates can go up even if Treasury yields stay the same.
• Jobs and the Economy: How many new jobs are created each month? Is the economy growing, or is it slowing down? We saw new job additions of about 54,000 in August 2025, which isn't super strong. Weaker job numbers can encourage the Fed to cut rates faster, potentially lowering mortgage rates. Stronger economic data, on the other hand, might make them pause.
• Global Stuff: International events, trade wars, or political instability can surprisingly affect mortgage rates. If these things cause uncertainty or push up prices for goods internationally, it could indirectly raise inflation and keep rates higher.
• You! (Sort of): While these big economic factors set the general trend, your own financial situation matters for your individual rate. Your credit score, how much you're putting down as a down payment, and the type of loan you choose all play a role.

There's definitely a debate happening among economists. Some think inflation might stick around longer than expected, keeping rates stubbornly high. Others are more worried about a potential recession, which could lead to sharper rate cuts and lower mortgage rates. It’s a tricky balance.

Expert Predictions: What's the Crystal Ball Saying?

I’ve looked at what some of the big housing and economic groups are saying. It’s not a perfect science, but it gives us a good idea of the consensus.

Here’s a rough idea from some major organizations:

What does this table tell me? Most experts seem to agree that we'll likely see rates settle in the mid-6% range for most of 2026. There’s an expectation of gradual easing, meaning rates might slowly tick down if things go according to plan. Some even see a possibility of rates dipping into the high 5s if the economy weakens more significantly and the Fed cuts rates more aggressively.

On social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), you’ll find financial experts discussing these predictions, and the sentiment seems pretty similar – cautious optimism for lower rates, but with many caveats.

How These Rates Affect You: Buyers and Homeowners

So, what does this mean if you're in the market for a new home or thinking about refinancing?

• For Buyers: If rates continue on this predicted path downward, it could make buying a home more affordable. Imagine a 0.5% drop on a $400,000 mortgage – that could save you around $150 per month. Some estimates suggest this could push home sales up by 3-14% in 2026 compared to this year. Home prices are still expected to rise, but maybe at a slower pace, perhaps 1-4% annually. This could be the window to get into the market, especially if you’re a first-time buyer.
• For Refinancers: If you currently have a mortgage with a rate above 7%, and dips continue, you might find yourself in a good position to refinance. Some reports suggest that if rates hit around 6.125%, millions of homeowners could become eligible to save money by refinancing.

However, there’s a catch. We’re still facing a shortage of homes for sale in many areas. This lack of inventory can keep prices from falling, or even cause them to go up, even if rates decrease. So, while rates might get better, the overall cost of buying might still be high.

Potential Risks and What Could Go Wrong

It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of falling rates, but we have to consider what could derail these predictions:

• The Optimistic Scenario: Imagine if the job market really cools off, and the Fed feels pressure to cut rates faster and deeper than expected. This could push mortgage rates down to, say, 5.875%. That would likely boost demand for homes significantly.
• The Pessimistic Scenario: On the flip side, what if inflation suddenly flares up again? Maybe due to something like new supply chain issues or unexpected consumer spending surges. If inflation starts climbing again, the Fed might have to stop cutting rates or even raise them. This would likely send mortgage rates back up towards the 7% mark, potentially freezing the housing market again.
• Long-Term Stability: Looking further out, many economists believe a sustainable mortgage rate in the long run might be around 6%. So, even if we see rates dip lower, they might not stay there for years and years.

My Take: What Should You Do?

As someone who spends a lot of time digging into this stuff, my advice is always to prepare rather than try to perfectly time the market.

• If You're Buying Soon: Don’t wait endlessly for the “perfect” rate. If you find a home you love and the rate is what you can afford, consider locking it in. Shopping around with different lenders is crucial – you can often find rate differences of 0.25% or more just by comparing. Also, consider adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) if you plan to move or refinance within the first 5-10 years, as their initial rates are often lower.
• If You're Thinking of Refinancing: Keep a close eye on rates. If your current mortgage rate is significantly higher than the national average, especially above 7%, it might be worth looking into refinancing. Use online calculators and check resources like Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) to track trends.
• General Advice: The best thing you can do is to manage your own finances. Keep your credit score in good shape – higher scores get better rates. Build up your savings for a down payment; a larger down payment can reduce your loan amount and potentially give you better rate options. And if you’re unsure, talk to a trusted mortgage broker or financial advisor. They can help you understand your options based on your specific situation.

The mortgage rate market is always moving, influenced by countless factors. While current predictions point to a gradual descent into the mid-6% range over the next year, it's important to stay informed, be realistic, and focus on what you can control in your own financial journey.

As of September 25, 2025, mortgage rates today show a modest increase in both home loan and refinance rates despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut earlier this month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.47% last week to 6.54%, marking a 7 basis points increase. Similarly, refinance rates climbed higher, with the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate jumping from 6.76% to 7.28%, an increase of 52 basis points. This rise in mortgage costs comes even though the Fed lowered its benchmark rate to stimulate borrowing, an outcome tied to complex market forces involving bond yields, inflation expectations, and economic forecasts.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 25, 2025: Home Loan and Refinance Rates Rise

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.54% (up 7 basis points from last week).
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate: 5.87% (up 6 basis points).
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate: 7.19% (up 6 basis points).
• 30-year refinance rate: 7.28% (up 52 basis points).
• Federal Reserve cut benchmark rate to 4.0%-4.25% but mortgage rates influenced more by long-term Treasury yields.
• Despite Fed cuts, mortgage rates often rise due to inflation fears and bond market reactions.
• Market forecasts expect rates to dip down around 6.1%-6.4% in 2026.

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates

To make sense of how mortgage rates can rise after a Fed rate cut, we first need to recognize the link between mortgage interest and broader financial markets. The Federal Reserve directly influences short-term interest rates, but mortgage rates tie more closely to the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. This bond yield reflects investor expectations about future inflation and economic growth, and when it moves higher, so do mortgage rates—even if the Fed lowers its benchmark.

For example, although the Fed trimmed its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 17, 2025, market forces pushed the 10-year Treasury yield back up to about 4.137%, near but still under its longer-term average of 4.25%. This has the direct effect of raising mortgage rates for new loans and refinancing alike. Additionally, ongoing concerns about persistent inflation have prompted investors to demand higher yields to offset rising prices, fueling this rate climb further.

Current Mortgage and Refinance Rates Overview

Below is a detailed table showing the latest mortgage rates as of September 25, 2025, based on Zillow data:

What Does This Mean for Borrowers?

Due to these rate fluctuations, borrowing costs for both buying new homes and refinancing existing mortgages are edging higher. For example, consider a borrower looking to finance $300,000 over 30 years:

• At 6.54% interest, the monthly principal and interest payment will be approximately $1,900.
• Compare that to last week's 6.47%, which would have cost about $1,890 monthly.

On the refinance side, with the 30-year refinance rate now at 7.28%, monthly payments on an equivalent loan balance will increase noticeably compared to rates closer to 6.76% just a week ago. This affects homeowners considering switching from higher earlier rates or aiming to tap into home equity at favorable terms.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising Despite the Federal Reserve Cut?

The Fed’s rate cut is primarily a tool to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper. But mortgage rates are more complicated, linked to long-term bond yields and the market's outlook for inflation and economic conditions. When investors worry that inflation will persist despite lower short-term rates, they demand more yield on bonds to protect their returns. This demand pushes bond yields—and therefore mortgage rates—higher.

The Fed’s cut on September 17 was a “risk-management” step responding to a slowing job market and uneven economic signals rather than a full-scale easing. The market had partly priced in the cut beforehand, so when the Fed indicated it might not cut as aggressively going forward, mortgage rates reacted by creeping up.

Looking Ahead: What Do Experts Forecast?

Various industry experts have offered predictions for mortgage rates going into 2026:

• National Association of REALTORS® anticipates rates to average 6.4% in late 2025 and drop further to 6.1% in 2026. They describe mortgage rates as a crucial factor for buyer affordability and overall market health.
• Fannie Mae forecasts rates finishing 2025 at 6.5% and declining to 6.1% in 2026, with mortgage originations increasing slightly to reflect renewed demand.
• Mortgage Bankers Association expects some volatility around mortgage-Treasury spreads but projects a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.7% by year-end 2025, easing back to 6.5% in 2026.

These projections highlight how the current rate environment remains delicate, with inflation trends and employment figures continuing to weigh heavily on interest rates.

The Federal Reserve’s Influence on Mortgage Markets

Although the Fed cut its key interest rate range from 4.25%-4.5% down to 4.0%-4.25%, the real influence on mortgage rates lies beyond short-term policy:

• The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage lending, is the crucial metric.
• Following the Fed cut, the yield briefly dipped but has since stabilized near 4.137%, reflecting investor caution and inflation concerns.
• The Fed’s vote (11-1) on the cut shows some internal disagreement about how aggressive monetary easing should be.
• Future rate decisions will hinge on inflation numbers and labor market health.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Under Current Conditions

• Fixed-Rate Mortgages offer predictable monthly payments unaffected by Fed cuts directly, but new loans will reflect current market conditions.
• Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) may see near-term rate adjustments downward since their indexes respond more quickly to Fed policy changes. However, ARM rates remain comparatively higher, with the 5-year ARM at 7.19% today.

How Inflation Plays a Role in Mortgage Rate Movements

Inflation remains the biggest wildcard. If inflation slows as hoped, bond yields—and thus mortgage rates—could fall, paving the way for lower borrowing costs in 2026. But if inflation remains stubborn, rates could climb further.

In-Depth Look at the Fed’s Recent Rate Cut and Market Reaction

The Fed’s September 17 cut was described as “risk-management,” responding to signs like:

• Unemployment rising to 4.3% and job gains slowing.
• Inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Mixed data on economic growth prompting caution.

However, the rate cut was less than some anticipated, leading markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy, possibly less easing ahead than expected. This recalibration contributed to higher mortgage rates.

Personal Insight

From my experience in the housing finance industry, mortgage rates can sometimes seem unpredictable because they’re influenced by factors far beyond the Fed’s control, especially investor sentiment and inflation outlooks. This disconnect explains why borrowers might feel frustrated by rising rates despite Fed efforts to make borrowing easier. For borrowers, focusing on the broader economic picture, including Treasury yields and inflation trends, is essential when planning a home purchase or refinance.

It’s a confusing time for anyone thinking about buying or refinancing a home. Just when we were starting to get comfortable with the idea of mortgage rates rising following several weeks of decline, it appears that trend is shaking up a bit. After a period where rates had been trending downwards, this past week saw a slight uptick, leaving many wondering what comes next. While this might sound like unwelcome news, it’s important to understand the bigger picture and what’s driving these shifts.

Mortgage Rates Rise Following Several Weeks of Decline: What It Means for You

According to Freddie Mac, as of September 25, 2025, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is around 6.3%. This is a small change, just 0.04% higher than the previous week, but it marks a halt to the decline we’d been seeing. The 15-year FRM also saw a similar nudge upwards, now sitting at 5.49%. This pause in the downward trend isn't necessarily signalling a full reversal, but it certainly adds a layer of uncertainty to the housing market.

The Fed's Tightrope Walk

To really understand why mortgage rates are doing what they’re doing, we need to look at the big player: the Federal Reserve. On September 17, 2025, the Fed finally made its move, cutting its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. This was a significant shift after holding steady for a while.

Why now? Well, the Fed is walking a bit of a tightrope. Inflation is still a concern, staying above their target of 2%, but they’re also seeing signs that the economy is starting to slow down. Think of it as a “risk-management” move, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell put it.

• Slowing Job Market: The language used in the Fed's statement changed. They’re no longer talking about a “solid” job market. Instead, they’re noting job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up to 4.3% in August. This tells me they’re paying close attention to job numbers and are concerned about a potential downturn.
• Balancing Act: It's a tough spot. They need to support the economy, especially the job market, but they can't ignore inflation. This cut shows they’re prioritizing managing the risks of a slowing economy while still keeping an eye on rising prices.

The Fed's decision was met with some internal debate. While the majority voted for the rate cut, one governor thought they should go even further, suggesting a bigger, half-point reduction. This little detail hints at the pressure the Fed is under to stimulate the economy.

How Does the Fed’s Move Affect Your Mortgage?

This is where it gets a little nuanced. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but their actions ripple through the financial system and influence what lenders charge.

• Variable-Rate Loans: For things like credit cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), you might see that interest rate drop pretty quickly because they are directly tied to the Fed's benchmark rate.
• Fixed-Rate Loans: This is where many people get confused, and it’s why mortgage rates rising following several weeks of decline can happen even after a Fed cut. Fixed mortgage rates, especially the 30-year ones that most people get, are more about future expectations. Lenders look at things like the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is a big indicator of where interest rates are headed.

Right now, that 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 4.137%. That’s actually a touch below its long-term average, which suggests that the market had already largely factored in the Fed’s rate cut. This is likely why we saw a period of declining mortgage rates leading up to the Fed’s announcement.

What the Data Tells Us (According to Freddie Mac)

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® is a go-to source for this kind of information. They track the average mortgage rates weekly.

You can see from the table that while rates are up this week, they are still generally lower than they were a year ago. The 30-year fixed is currently within its 52-week range, and the slight increase is more about stability after a period of drops, rather than a dramatic surge.

The Housing Market's Reaction

So, how is all this affecting people looking to buy or sell?

• For Buyers: The good news is that despite this slight uptick, mortgage rates had been trending downwards, making homes more affordable. This means that for many, their purchasing power increased. This recent small jump might be a temporary pause, and the overall environment remains more favorable for buyers than it was previously.
• For Sellers: With more people able to afford homes, buyer activity has been holding up well. In fact, purchase applications were up 18% compared to this time last year. Refinance applications saw an even bigger jump, up 42%. This tells me people are taking advantage of lower rates to either buy new homes or save money on their existing ones.

There's a potential risk here though. If more buyers jump into the market because of lower rates, and there aren't enough homes for sale, we could see home prices start to creep back up. This would offset some of the benefits of lower mortgage payments.

What’s Next? The Data is King

The Fed has signalled that they might cut rates a couple more times this year, but their decisions will be heavily based on incoming economic data.

• Inflation Reports: If we see inflation start to rise again, the Fed might put the brakes on any further rate cuts.
• Labor Market Data: If the job market continues to weaken, it might encourage the Fed to be more aggressive with cuts. If it stabilizes, they might take a more cautious approach.

It’s a delicate balance. The mortgage market is essentially waiting for its next cue from the economic reports. While the mortgage rates rising following several weeks of decline might cause immediate concern, it’s important to remember the broader trend and the factors influencing it.

My Take on It All

From my perspective, this is still a volatile but potentially favorable time for those looking to make a move in the housing market. The Fed’s cut was a signal that they’re trying to preemptively address economic slowdown, which is a good thing for long-term stability.

For buyers, even with this slight upward adjustment, the rates are still more attractive than they have been. I’d still advise shopping around extensively for the best rate. Don't just go with the first lender you talk to.

For those looking to refinance, if your current rate is above 6.5%, you should be actively exploring your options. The opportunity to lower your monthly payments is definitely there.

The 10-year Treasury yield holding below its average is a positive sign. It means the market is anticipating lower borrowing costs, even if there are short-term fluctuations. The journey to lower mortgage rates is a careful one, dictated by the latest economic news. Stay informed, and don’t be afraid to act when the time is right for you.

Here's the bottom line upfront: Most experts believe mortgage rates will dip slightly over the next 90 days, likely settling in the 6.2% to 6.5% range by mid-December 2025. While this offers a glimmer of hope for potential homebuyers, significant drops below 6% are generally not expected, especially without a more pronounced economic slowdown.

It feels like everyone is talking about mortgage rates these days, and if you're thinking about buying a home or refinancing, you're probably wondering what's going to happen next. I've been digging into what the smart folks who study this stuff are saying, and it looks like we're in for a bit of a breather on mortgage costs, but nothing drastic.

Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: October to December 2025

The Current View: A Welcome Dip

As of mid-September 2025, things are looking a bit more favorable than they have been. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 6.35%. This is actually a nice drop from just a week ago, the biggest one we've seen this year! For a while there, especially in the summer, rates were stuck in the mid-6% range, and even higher earlier in 2025. Remember those peaks above 7% in late 2024? We've definitely moved past those.

For context, if you're considering a 15-year mortgage, rates are even better, hovering around 5.5%. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) might offer a slightly lower starting rate, but they come with the risk that your payment could go up later.

It's important to remember that even these “lower” rates are still quite a bit higher than the rock-bottom rates we saw a few years back. Back then, getting a mortgage at 3% or 4% was common. Now, on a $400,000 loan, your monthly payment for just the principal and interest is around $2,500 – that's about 20% more than it was just two years ago. This really makes a difference for affordability.

What's Driving the Rate Movement?

So, why are rates expected to ease a bit in the last quarter of 2025 (October, November, December)? It all comes down to a few key economic ingredients:

1. The Federal Reserve's Moves: The big player here is the Federal Reserve, often called “the Fed.” They control the federal funds rate, which is like the interest rate banks charge each other. Right now, it's sitting between 4.25% and 4.50%. The general feeling in the market is that the Fed will cut this rate by 0.25% at their September meeting. If inflation continues to cool down, they might even cut it again in December. However, if inflation doesn't cooperate, they might hold off on more cuts, which would keep mortgage rates from dropping much further.
2. Inflation and Bond Yields: Inflation is a major concern for the Fed. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed some cooling, coming in at 3.3% year-over-year, the “core” inflation (which excludes food and energy) is still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds. These yields have dipped recently to around 4.2%, and if they keep going down, mortgage rates will likely follow.
3. Jobs and Economic Growth: We're looking for signs that the economy is healthy but not too hot, which can make the Fed nervous about inflation. A weaker jobs report, like the one in August (where fewer jobs were added than expected), can be a good sign for lower mortgage rates. However, if the economy stays strong, the Fed might be less eager to cut rates. Forecasts for economic growth (GDP) in 2025 have been revised down a bit, suggesting a slower pace, which generally supports lower rates.
4. Global Issues and Policies: Things happening around the world, or even new policies here at home, can shake things up. For example, if new tariffs are put in place, that could increase prices and potentially push inflation higher, which is bad news for mortgage rates. Global supply chain issues can also add a layer of unpredictability.

All these factors suggest a careful balance. If the economy cools off a bit without falling into a full-blown recession, we're likely to see rates drift lower.

What the Experts Are Saying: A Nudge Downward

When I look at what major organizations like Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are predicting, there's a pretty strong agreement: rates will probably come down a little by the end of the year. The exact numbers vary, but most are forecasting the 30-year fixed rate to be somewhere in the 6.4% to 6.7% range by December.

Here’s a look at some of their predictions:

It's interesting to see how some of these institutions revise their forecasts as new information comes out. For instance, Fannie Mae recently lowered its rate predictions because the economy seems to be growing a bit slower than they initially thought.

My take on this is that the consensus points towards a modest easing. We're probably looking at about a 0.1% to 0.5% drop from where rates are now. Getting back to those sub-6% rates we saw a few years ago just doesn't seem likely with the current economic picture.

What This Means for You: Buyers and Sellers

So, what does this mean for people looking to buy or sell homes?

• For Buyers: A small drop in rates can definitely help. It might make that dream home a little more affordable, potentially saving you roughly $60 a month on a $350,000 loan compared to rates a few months ago. This could encourage about 5% to 10% more buyers to enter the market. However, even with slightly lower rates, affordability is still a challenge for many, especially first-time buyers who might be seeing down payment requirements that feel impossible.
• For Sellers: If rates tick down, you might see a little more interest from buyers. However, with the overall low number of homes available for sale – we're talking less than 4 months' supply – home prices are likely to stay pretty firm. You probably won't see huge price drops, but it could mean your home sells a bit faster if priced right.
• For Refinancers: If you took out a mortgage in 2020 or 2021 when rates were super low, a small drop might not be enough to make refinancing worthwhile. You'd likely need a drop of at least 0.75% to truly see significant savings that pay off the costs of refinancing within a few years.

Looking Back: History Repeats Itself?

It's kind of like what happened back in 2018 and 2019. Rates had risen, then started coming down as trade tensions grew. That last period of falling rates led to more home sales. If we see a similar drop now, it could boost sales, but the current shortage of homes for sale and the large number of homeowners “locked in” to their low rates (meaning they don't want to sell their current home and buy a new one with a higher rate) could limit how much the market really picks up.

How to Navigate the Next Few Months

If you're in the market or thinking about it, here are a few things I’d recommend:

• Buyers: If you're serious about buying soon, get your mortgage pre-approval done now. Shop around with at least 3–5 different lenders, as even small differences in rates can add up. Some lenders offer “float-down” options, which let you lower your rate if it falls before you close, which could be a smart move.
• Sellers: Price your home competitively. With the seasons changing, buyers might be a bit more selective, so making your home as appealing as possible is key.
• Anyone thinking about refinancing: Use online mortgage calculators to see if a potential rate drop makes financial sense for you. If your current rate is significantly higher than the projected future rates, it might be worth keeping an eye on.
• Stay Informed: Keep an eye on weekly mortgage rate surveys from sources like Freddie Mac, and pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. This will give you a clearer picture of what's influencing rates.
• Savings Strategy: If you're saving for a down payment, look into high-yield savings accounts that are offering good interest rates (we're seeing APYs around 4.5% on some of these). This can help your savings grow while you wait for rates to potentially drop.

In the end, the next 90 days look set to bring a bit of relief in the mortgage rate department, but it’s more of a gentle trend than a dramatic shift. Being prepared and informed will be your best bet, no matter what the numbers do.

As of September 24, 2025, mortgage rates today have inched higher, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 6.61%, slightly up from last week's 6.47%, despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut. This increase is attributable mainly to the market's response to inflation data and investor expectations about future economic conditions. Refinancing rates have seen minor fluctuations, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropping slightly to 6.94% but still higher than the prior week of 6.76%. This post will delve into the current mortgage and refinance rate landscape, the interplay between Federal Reserve policies and mortgage rates, and what these changes mean for borrowers and homeowners.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 24, 2025: Rates Increase Across the Board

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 6.61%, up 14 basis points from last week.
• 15-year fixed rate mortgages also increased slightly to 5.81%, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw rises, especially the 5-year ARM at 7.19%.
• Refinance rates fluctuate, with 30-year fixed refinance rates dropping marginally to 6.94% but up 18 basis points from the prior week.
• Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by long-term Treasury yields, not directly by the Fed's benchmark rate.
• The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, but mortgage rates did not drop immediately due to inflation concerns and market adjustments.
• Expectations are mixed, with forecasts suggesting mortgage rates could average around 6.4% through the end of 2025 and decline toward 6.1% in 2026.

Understanding Today's Mortgage Rates – September 24, 2025

Mortgage rates are a critical factor for anyone considering buying a home or refinancing an existing mortgage. On September 24, 2025, we see a slight rise in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.61% nationally. This is a 14 basis point increase from the previous week’s average of 6.47%. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage has similarly increased from 5.79% to 5.81%, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have also seen upticks — the 5-year ARM rate increased by 10 basis points to 7.19%.

(Source: Zillow)

Refinancing rates show a slightly different pattern. The 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped a tad to 6.94%, down 1 basis point from the previous day but up 18 basis points from a week earlier. The 15-year fixed refinance rate saw a sharper rise, climbing 19 basis points to 5.89%, while the 5-year ARM refinance rate increased 30 basis points to 7.39%.

(Source: Zillow)

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising Despite a Fed Rate Cut?

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% on September 17, 2025, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%. Generally, when the Fed reduces rates, borrowing costs including mortgage rates tend to fall. However, mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed's benchmark rate; instead, they track the yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, especially the 10-year Treasury note.

After the Fed's decision, yields on these long-term Treasuries actually rose as investors reconsidered the trajectory of inflation and future Fed actions. Inflation data indicating persistent price increases has also pushed investors to demand higher yields on long-term bonds to offset anticipated purchasing power losses. This dynamic means mortgage rates climbed even amid the Fed’s easing attempts.

The core relationship:

• Fed Rate Cut (Short-term rate) ↓ but
• Long-term Treasury yields ↑ due to inflation and market sentiment
• Mortgage Rates ↑ as they follow Treasury yields closely

Federal Reserve Rate Cut: What Does “Risk-Management” Mean?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the September 2025 cut as a “risk-management” move, balancing concerns about economic slowdown with persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with slower job gains and a slight rise in unemployment (4.3% in August). This context led the Fed to take a cautious approach, cutting rates modestly amid uncertainty over future economic conditions.

Interestingly, the Fed's cut was less aggressive than some market participants expected. This led to a recalibration in bond markets which, combined with ongoing inflation fears, has pushed mortgage rates higher despite the cut.

Detailed Breakdown of Today's Mortgage Rates by Loan Type

Forward-Looking Mortgage Rate Forecast

Several expert organizations have issued forecasts for mortgage rates beyond September 2025:

• National Association of REALTORS® expects rates to average around 6.4% during the second half of 2025, with a slight dip toward 6.1% in 2026. The group highlights mortgage rates as a critical factor in affecting buyer affordability and demand.
• Realtor.com anticipates a slow easing of mortgage rates, with rates matching previous year's levels and potentially dipping near 6.4% by year-end 2025.
• Fannie Mae, revising its August 2025 forecast, projects rates to finish 2025 at about 6.5% and fall to approximately 6.1% in 2026. They expect mortgage originations to increase accordingly in 2025 and 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts 30-year mortgage rates around 6.7% by the end of 2025, dropping to about 6.5% by end of 2026, emphasizing continued volatility and limited refinance opportunities.

Impact of Mortgage Rate Changes on Borrowers

For those buying a home or refinancing:

• Higher mortgage rates reduce buying power, as more monthly income goes toward interest rather than principal. This situation has tempered demand somewhat.
• Homeowners with existing loans above 6.5% should monitor refinance rates closely. While some refinance rates have slightly risen, rates under 7% still offer opportunities for savings, depending on individual loan terms.
• ARMs often react more quickly to Fed moves. With the recent Fed cut, borrowers with ARMs may see lower rates at their next adjustment, while fixed-rate mortgage holders benefit mainly if they refinance.

Sample Loan Cost Illustration

Imagine a borrower takes out a $300,000 mortgage on September 24, 2025, with a 30-year fixed rate at 6.61%:

• Monthly principal and interest payment would be approximately $1,929.
• If rates had remained at last week's 6.47%, the payment would be about $1,894, meaning a weekly rate increase costs around $35 more per month.

For the same amount on a 15-year fixed loan at 5.81%:

• Monthly payment would be around $2,485, a higher payment for faster payoff but lower overall interest.

What Factors Will Move Mortgage Rates Next?

• Inflation Reports: Persistent inflation will keep pressure on rates to remain elevated or rise.
• Economic Data: Labor market strength and GDP growth signals may influence Fed decisions.
• Fed's Future Cuts: The Fed's “dot plot” indicates about two more cuts in 2025 could happen, but all depends on economic signals.
• Long-term Treasury Yields: These remain the largest mover for mortgage rates. Any spikes translate into immediate pressure on mortgage costs.

Final Thoughts on Mortgage Rates Today – September 24, 2025

Mortgage rates remain a complex dance between Federal Reserve policy, inflation pressures, and investor behavior in bond markets. While the Fed’s recent cut aimed to support economic growth, mortgage rates have briefly ticked upward as markets recalibrate to inflation expectations and longer-term Treasury yields.

For borrowers and homeowners, the current landscape underscores the importance of staying informed and understanding that mortgage rates aren't just about the Fed's moves but also about what bond investors expect coming next. The path looks cautiously optimistic for rate declines into early 2026 but remains subject to economic data twists.