Should I Refinance My Mortgage Now or Wait Until 2026?

Deciding whether to refinance your mortgage now or wait until 2026 is a big question many homeowners are grappling with. Right now, in mid-2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 6.9%. Forecasts suggest we might see a slight dip by the end of 2026. So, what's the right move for you? The short answer is: it truly depends on your individual circumstances, but if your current rate is significantly higher than what's available today and you plan to stay in your home for the long haul, exploring refinancing now could be a smart move to potentially save you a good chunk of money.

Should I Refinance My Mortgage Now or Wait Until 2026?

I remember when I first bought my home. Navigating the world of mortgages and interest rates felt like trying to decipher a secret code. Now, having followed the market for years, I’ve learned that timing your refinance can be just as crucial as getting a good initial loan. Let's dive deep into the factors you need to consider to make the best decision for your financial future.

Understanding Mortgage Refinancing

First things first, let's make sure we're all on the same page. Refinancing simply means replacing your existing mortgage with a brand new one. People typically do this for a few key reasons:

• To snag a lower interest rate: This is often the primary motivation, as a lower rate can significantly reduce your monthly payments and the total amount of interest you pay over the life of the loan.
• To shorten the loan term: If you're in a better financial position, you might refinance from a 30-year mortgage to a 15-year one. This means higher monthly payments, but you'll own your home outright much faster and save a ton on interest in the long run.
• To adjust loan type: For example, switching from an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) to a fixed-rate mortgage can provide more payment stability.
• To tap into home equity: A cash-out refinance allows you to borrow against the equity you've built in your home, though this should be approached with caution.

However, it's crucial to remember that refinancing isn't free. You'll encounter closing costs, which can include appraisal fees, title insurance, and lender fees. These costs typically range from 2% to 6% of the new loan amount. This is why carefully weighing the potential savings against these upfront costs is so important.

A Look at Current Mortgage Rates (June 2025)

As we sit here in June 2025, the mortgage rate environment is interesting. Based on recent data:

• Freddie Mac reported an average of 6.85% for the week ending June 5, 2025.
• Bankrate noted an average of 6.97% on June 3, 2025.
• Investopedia indicated rates at 6.99% on June 4, 2025.

So, generally speaking, you're looking at around 6.9% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. To put this into perspective, we saw rates peak at over 8% in late 2023, before dropping to below 6% last fall. The current rates are definitely better than the recent high, but still not near the lows we've experienced in the past. For those considering a shorter term, 15-year fixed mortgages are hovering around 5.9%–6.16%.

From my perspective, these rates, while not jaw-droppingly low, still present an opportunity for some homeowners who locked in rates much higher a few years ago.

What the Future Holds: Mortgage Rate Forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Trying to predict the future of interest rates is a bit like trying to predict the weather – the experts can give you their best guess, but things can change quickly. However, several reputable financial institutions have put out their forecasts for the coming year and beyond:

Organization	2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast	Source
Fannie Mae	6.1%	5.8%	Fannie Mae Forecast
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)	6.7%	6.6%	MBA Forecast
National Association of Home Builders	6.66%	6.16%	NAHB Outlook
National Association of Realtors	6.4%	6.1%	NAR Forecast
Wells Fargo	6.29%	6.19%	Wells Fargo Report
Realtor.com	6.3%	Not specified	Realtor.com Forecast

These forecasts generally point towards a modest decline in mortgage rates by the end of 2026, potentially landing somewhere in the range of 6.1% to 6.7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

The reasoning behind this expected dip often revolves around predictions of slower economic growth and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, it's crucial to understand that these are just predictions. Factors like inflation, changes in government policy (like tariffs, as mentioned by Reuters), and overall economic stability can all throw a wrench in these forecasts.

In my opinion, while a slight decrease seems plausible, I wouldn't bank on a significant drop back to the ultra-low rates we saw a few years ago. The economic environment is just too different now.

The Federal Reserve's Role and Economic Influences

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, their actions (or inactions) have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to closely follow the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, and the Fed's monetary policy plays a big role in influencing those yields.

Currently, the Federal Reserve has held its federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range since December 2024 (CNBC). Experts have suggested that the Fed might start considering rate cuts around mid-2025 (NBC News), with investors anticipating a few quarter-point cuts throughout the rest of the year (U.S. Bank). If these cuts materialize, we could indeed see some downward pressure on Treasury yields and, consequently, mortgage rates.

However, as Reuters points out, things like new trade policies and tariffs could lead to higher inflation, which might make the Fed hesitant to cut rates too quickly. On the flip side, a weaker-than-expected economy could push the Fed to cut rates sooner and more aggressively.

This uncertainty is a key reason why trying to time the market perfectly is so difficult. There are so many moving parts!

Key Questions to Ask Yourself: Refinance Now or Wait?

Now, let's get down to the brass tacks. To help you decide whether to refinance your mortgage now or wait until 2026, here are some critical questions to consider:

1. What is your current mortgage interest rate? If your current rate is significantly higher than the 6.9% we're seeing now (say, 7.5% or higher), refinancing now could offer substantial savings. Even a seemingly small difference can add up to a lot of money over the life of a 30-year loan.
   • Example: On a $300,000 loan, dropping your rate from 7.5% to 6.9% could save you around $150 per month, or $1,800 per year. Over 30 years, that's over $54,000 in interest saved!
   • My Take: If you're in this boat, I'd seriously consider looking into refinancing now. Don't wait and potentially miss out on these savings.
2. How much will the refinancing closing costs be? As mentioned earlier, these costs can range from 2% to 6% of your loan amount. You need to figure out your break-even point – how long will it take for your monthly savings to cover these upfront costs?
   • Example: If your refinancing costs are $9,000 and you save $150 per month, your break-even point is 60 months (or 5 years).
   • Consideration: If the potential rate drop in 2026 is only going to save you a small amount each month, it might take a very long time to recoup the closing costs if you refinance now. In that case, waiting might be more sensible.
3. How long do you plan to stay in your home? This is a crucial factor. If you only plan to live in your home for another year or two, the savings from refinancing might not outweigh the closing costs.
   • My Experience: I've seen people refinance only to move shortly after, essentially throwing away the money they spent on closing costs. Be realistic about your future plans.
4. What are your other financial goals? Could the extra cash flow from lower monthly mortgage payments help you achieve other financial goals, like paying off high-interest debt or saving for retirement?
   • Think About It: Sometimes, the benefits of refinancing go beyond just the interest rate. The flexibility it provides in your monthly budget can be significant.
5. How comfortable are you with the current economic uncertainty? As we've discussed, there's no guarantee that rates will drop in 2026. Unexpected economic events could even cause them to rise.
   • My Perspective: If you can secure a rate now that significantly improves your financial situation, it might be worth taking it rather than gambling on future rate movements.

Practical Scenarios to Help You Decide

Let's look at a few common situations:

• Scenario 1: You have a high current rate (7.5% or higher) and plan to stay long-term. In this case, refinancing now to a rate around 6.9% likely makes good financial sense. The long-term savings will likely outweigh the closing costs, and you'll enjoy lower monthly payments sooner rather than later.
• Scenario 2: Your current rate is already close to the current market (around 6.5%). Refinancing now might not provide significant savings, and you'd still incur closing costs. Waiting to see if rates drop further in 2026 (potentially to the 6.1%-6.3% range) could be a better strategy, but you need to weigh the potential savings against the risk that rates might not drop as much as predicted.
• Scenario 3: You plan to sell your home within the next 2-3 years. Refinancing now is probably not a good idea. You're unlikely to stay in the home long enough to recoup the closing costs through lower monthly payments. Waiting or simply sticking with your current mortgage is likely the more cost-effective approach.

Beyond Interest Rates: Other Refinancing Considerations

While the interest rate is often the primary focus, there are other reasons why you might consider refinancing:

• Switching from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage: This can save you a substantial amount of interest over the life of the loan and help you build equity faster. However, be prepared for higher monthly payments.
• Changing from an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage: If you're currently in an adjustable-rate mortgage, refinancing to a fixed-rate loan can provide more predictability in your monthly payments, especially if interest rates are expected to rise.
• Cash-out refinance: If you have significant equity in your home, you might consider a cash-out refinance to access funds for things like home renovations or other major expenses. However, be cautious about increasing your mortgage balance.

Also, keep in mind that the rate you're offered will depend on your individual financial situation, including your credit score and loan-to-value ratio (Forbes Advisor). Even if market rates drop, you'll still need to qualify for a good rate. It's always a good idea to shop around with multiple lenders to see what kind of offers you can get.

Final Verdict: Refinance Now or Wait? My Personal Take

Given the current mortgage rate landscape in 2025 and the forecasts for a gradual, rather than dramatic, rate decline, my advice leans towards considering refinancing now if it makes financial sense for you.

If you're a homeowner with a mortgage rate significantly above these current averages, refinancing now to a rate in the high 6% range could deliver substantial monthly savings. Even a rate reduction of 1% or more can make a real difference in your budget.

Waiting until 2026 might bring slightly lower rates, but there's no guarantee. And remember, every month you wait, you're potentially missing out on savings if rates are already at a level that benefits you.

Ultimately, the best decision is a personal one based on your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals. Don't just rely on averages – get personalized quotes from multiple lenders and crunch the numbers. Talk to a mortgage professional to explore your options and see if refinancing now, or perhaps in the near future, is the right move for you.