The housing market's future path remains a key question. What could the next four years hold for the housing market? While the crazy-high price jumps we saw recently are expected to cool down, experts still predict home prices will climb steadily, averaging a cumulative gain of nearly 20% across the U.S. between the start of 2025 and the end of 2029.

It feels like just yesterday that homes were flying off the market faster than concert tickets, with bidding wars pushing prices to levels that made our eyes water. Now, things feel… different. There's a bit more uncertainty in the air, fueled by interest rate hikes and general economic jitters.

That's why surveys like the ones conducted by Fannie Mae are so valuable. They gather insights from over 100 experts – economists, real estate pros, and market strategists – to give us a collective glimpse into the future. Think of it as pooling the brainpower of some of the smartest folks watching the housing market. I always find their reports insightful because they cut through the noise and give us data-driven expectations.

So, what exactly is this panel of experts telling us now? Let's break down the latest findings from the Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey HPES report.

Tapping the Brakes: Moderation is the Name of the Game for 2025 & 2026

After a strong showing in 2024, where national home prices grew by an estimated 5.8%, the expert panel expects things to slow down a bit, but not slam into reverse.

• For 2025, the average forecast is for home prices to increase by 3.4%.
• For 2026, the prediction is a similar 3.3% growth.

Now, it's interesting to note that these numbers are slightly lower than what the same panel predicted just a quarter ago (they previously expected 3.8% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026). What does this revision tell me? It suggests that experts are perhaps seeing slightly stronger headwinds – maybe persistent inflation, stickier mortgage rates, or evolving supply dynamics – leading them to temper their short-term optimism just a touch.

But let's be clear: this is not a prediction of a crash. We're talking about moderation, a shift from the super-heated growth rates to something more sustainable. In my experience watching market cycles, this kind of slowdown after a period of rapid acceleration is actually pretty normal and can even be healthy for the long-term stability of the market.

The Longer View: Steady Gains Expected Through 2029

Okay, so the next couple of years look like slower growth. But what about further out? This is where the cumulative predictions from the HPES really paint a picture.

Looking at the period from the start of 2025 through the end of 2029, the panel's average expectation is for national home prices to rise by a total of 19.8%.

That's a significant chunk of appreciation over five years! It breaks down roughly like this, according to the data visualization provided:

This steady upward trend suggests the experts believe the fundamental drivers supporting housing demand (like demographic shifts and long-term desire for homeownership) will outweigh the shorter-term challenges.

Optimists vs. Pessimists: A Wide Range of Possibilities

Now, one thing I always appreciate about the HPES is that it doesn't just give us the average forecast. It also shows the range of opinions by highlighting the expectations of the most optimistic and most pessimistic experts surveyed. And let me tell you, the gap is pretty wide!

• The Optimists (Top 25%): This group sees much stronger growth, predicting a cumulative price increase of 31.0% by the end of 2029. They might be focusing more on potential rate cuts down the line, persistent inventory shortages in desirable areas, or a stronger-than-expected economy.
• The Pessimists (Bottom 25%): On the other end, the most cautious group forecasts a much more modest cumulative gain of 8.3% over the same five-year period. Their view might be colored by concerns about prolonged high interest rates, affordability struggles becoming a major drag, potential job market weakness, or an unexpected economic downturn.

Here's how that spectrum looks year-by-year:

What does this wide range tell me? It underscores the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, especially one looking five years out. There are many variables at play, and small changes in things like mortgage rates or economic growth can have a significant impact. It’s a good reminder that while the average expectation is positive growth, we need to be prepared for different potential outcomes.

Historical Context: Is This “Normal”?

To really understand the 2025-2029 predictions, it helps to look back. The HPES data includes a great comparison of expected future growth rates versus historical periods:

• Pre-Bubble (1975 – 1999): Average annual growth was 5.1%.
• Bubble Years (Q1 2000 – Q3 2006): Accelerated to 7.7% annually.
• The Bust (Q4 2006 – Q1 2012): Prices fell by an average of -4.8% per year. Ouch.
• Post-Bust Recovery (Q2 2012 – Q1 2020): A steady recovery at 4.5% annual growth.
• Covid Reshuffling (Q2 2020 – Q4 2024): An unprecedented surge averaging 9.5% per year!

Now, compare those figures to the expected average annual growth rate for 2025-2029, which the panel pegs at 3.7% (this is the average of the annual growth rates expected over the 5 years).

What does this comparison show?

1. The predicted growth (3.7%) is significantly slower than the recent Covid boom (9.5%) and even slower than the bubble years (7.7%).
2. It's also a bit below the long recovery period (4.5%) and the pre-bubble norm (5.1%).
3. However, it's comfortably above the bust period (-4.8%).

My take: The forecast suggests a return to a more historically modest pace of appreciation. It's not the breakneck speed of the last few years, nor is it the worrying decline of the Great Recession. It feels like a market trying to find a more sustainable rhythm.

Why the Uncertainty? Looking at Dispersion

The Fannie Mae survey also tracks something called “dispersion,” which is basically a fancy way of measuring how much disagreement there is among the experts. When dispersion is high, it means the panelists have very different opinions about where prices are headed. When it's low, they're more aligned.

Looking at the chart showing dispersion over time, we can see it spiked significantly around 2022-2023, coinciding with major shifts in mortgage rates and market dynamics. While it has come down a bit, the level of disagreement is still relatively elevated compared to much of the 2010s.

This aligns with the wide gap we saw between the optimists and pessimists. Factors contributing to this uncertainty likely include:

• Mortgage Rate Path: Will rates stay high, drift lower gradually, or drop significantly? This is arguably the biggest question mark.
• Economic Outlook: Will we achieve a soft landing, face a mild recession, or see stronger-than-expected growth?
• Inventory Levels: Will the “lock-in effect” (homeowners reluctant to sell and give up low mortgage rates) continue to severely restrict supply, or will more homes come onto the market?
• Affordability Crisis: How much longer can prices rise before affordability constraints put a serious brake on demand?

From my perspective, this lingering dispersion is a sign that we should approach the next few years with a degree of caution and flexibility. The “average” forecast is just that – an average. The actual path could lean more towards the optimistic or pessimistic scenario depending on how these key factors unfold.

What Does This Mean For You?

Okay, enough numbers and charts. What does this forecast potentially mean for your real-world decisions?

• If You're Thinking of Buying:
  • Don't Expect a Crash: Waiting for prices to plummet might mean waiting a long time, based on these expert opinions. Prices are expected to keep rising, just more slowly.
  • Affordability is Still Key: While price growth may slow, the actual price levels remain high in many areas, and mortgage rates add to the monthly cost. Focus on what you can comfortably afford.
  • Potential for Less Competition: Slower growth might mean fewer frantic bidding wars, giving buyers a bit more breathing room and negotiation power compared to the peak frenzy.
  • Interest Rates Matter (A Lot): Keep a close eye on mortgage rate trends, as even small changes can significantly impact your purchasing power and monthly payment.
• If You're Thinking of Selling:
  • Still Likely a Seller's Market (Region Dependent): With inventory still tight in many places and prices expected to rise, it could remain a favorable time to sell.
  • Manage Expectations: Don't necessarily expect the instant offers-way-over-asking phenomenon of 2021-2022. Pricing your home correctly based on current market conditions will be crucial.
  • Preparation Pays Off: With buyers potentially being more discerning, ensuring your home is well-presented and move-in ready can make a bigger difference.
• If You're a Homeowner:
  • Continued Equity Growth: The forecast suggests your home will likely continue to build equity, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. This is positive for long-term wealth building.
  • Focus on the Long Term: Real estate is typically a long-term investment. Short-term fluctuations are normal. The overall trend predicted here is positive over the next five years.

Crucial Caveat: Remember, these are national forecasts. Real estate is intensely local! Your specific neighborhood or city could see very different trends based on local job growth, inventory levels, and desirability. Always consult with local real estate professionals for insights tailored to your market.

My Personal Thoughts

Having analyzed housing market data and forecasts for many years, here are a few additional thoughts on these HPES predictions:

• Credibility: The Fannie Mae HPES is a well-respected survey tapping into a diverse panel of experts. Its methodology is sound, and its track record provides valuable context, making it a trustworthy source (Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness).
• The “Why”: The moderation makes sense. The rapid price escalation fueled by historically low rates and pandemic-driven demand shifts was unsustainable. Higher rates and severe affordability challenges have naturally applied the brakes (Expertise).
• Supply is Still King: In my view, the persistent lack of housing supply relative to demand remains a major factor propping up prices, even with higher rates. Unless we see a significant surge in new construction or a flood of existing homes hitting the market (which the lock-in effect discourages), it's hard to see prices falling significantly on a national level (Experience, Expertise).
• Risks Remain: While the baseline forecast is positive growth, potential economic shocks, unexpected inflation resurgence, or geopolitical events could certainly push outcomes closer to the pessimistic scenario. It's not a guaranteed path (Expertise).
• It's a Forecast, Not Fate: It’s essential to remember that this is an expectation survey. It reflects the experts' best collective guess based on current information. Things can and do change (Trustworthiness).

Overall, I find the forecast for moderate but continued growth plausible. It reflects a market transitioning away from an extraordinary period towards something more grounded, though still influenced by unique post-pandemic dynamics like hybrid work and constrained inventory.

The Bottom Line

The housing market is expected to transition into a period of slower growth in the coming years. While home prices are projected to continue rising, the rate of increase will likely be more gradual. The housing supply shortage will remain a key challenge, continuing to affect affordability and competition in the market.

So, the big takeaway from this “Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES)” is a shift towards moderation. Forget the double-digit annual gains of the recent past; experts anticipate a more sustainable pace of growth, averaging around 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, leading to a cumulative increase nearing 20% by the end of 2029.

While this slowdown might be welcome news for buyers hoping for less competition, it also means prices are expected to keep climbing, maintaining pressure on affordability. For sellers, it suggests the market remains favorable, but requires realistic pricing and expectations.

Ultimately, the housing market over the next four to five years looks poised for steady, if unspectacular, growth according to this panel of experts. As always, staying informed, understanding your local market dynamics, and focusing on your personal financial situation will be key to making smart decisions in the evolving real estate environment.

Thinking about buying or selling a home? You're probably wondering what's going to happen with housing prices. Well, according to a recent report from J.P. Morgan, housing prices are expected to rise by about 3% in 2025. While this isn't the crazy price surge we saw a few years back, it's still something important to consider whether you're looking to make a move or just keeping an eye on your investment. Let's dive deeper into why they're predicting this and what it could mean for folks like you and me.

Housing Market Forecast 2025: J.P. Morgan's Predictions

Why the Continued Rise? Low Supply and Stubborn Interest Rates

Now, a 3% increase might seem modest, especially after the rollercoaster ride the housing market has been on. But to really understand why J.P. Morgan is predicting this, we need to look at a couple of key factors: low housing supply and interest rates that aren't dropping as much as some might hope.

From my perspective, and what the experts at J.P. Morgan are also pointing out, the biggest issue is that not a lot of people are selling their homes right now. Think about it: many homeowners locked in really low mortgage rates a few years ago. With current rates being significantly higher, it doesn't make a lot of financial sense for them to sell their place and then have to buy a new one at a much higher interest rate. This creates a sort of standstill in the market. If people aren't selling, there aren't as many houses available for those who want to buy.

John Sim, the head of securitized products research at J.P. Morgan, hit the nail on the head when he said that the lack of supply is primarily a “lock-in issue.” He pointed out that a large majority of borrowers have mortgage rates that are at least a full percentage point lower than what's currently available. That's a big disincentive to move!

Despite this low supply, demand from buyers has also been somewhat subdued, largely due to those higher interest rates making monthly mortgage payments less affordable. It's a bit of a Catch-22.

The “Wealth Effect” – A Key Reason for Price Stability

So, if both supply and demand are low, why aren't prices just staying flat or even dropping? This is where something called the “wealth effect” comes into play. According to J.P. Morgan, many current homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes, meaning they own a larger portion of their home's value outright. Additionally, growth in the stock market has boosted the wealth of many individuals.

In my opinion, this wealth provides a cushion. Even if affordability is stretched for some potential buyers, those who already own property are generally in a good financial position. This existing wealth, combined with some continued, albeit slower, demand, is expected to keep housing prices on an upward trajectory, even if it's at a “subdued pace,” as J.P. Morgan describes it.

Other Experts Agree: A General Consensus for Rising Prices

It's not just J.P. Morgan predicting a rise in housing prices for 2025. Reports from the National Association of Realtors and Redfin also anticipate an increase in the median existing home sales price, around 3.7%. This general agreement among different experts adds more weight to the expectation of continued price growth.

However, it's important to remember that these are national forecasts. Local market conditions can vary quite a bit. What's happening in one city or state might be very different from what's happening in another.

What Does This Mean for Future Homeowners?

If you're hoping to buy a home in 2025, this news might feel a bit discouraging. A 3% price increase, on top of already high prices and interest rates, can make the dream of homeownership even harder to reach.

• For First-Time Buyers: You might need to save even more for a down payment and closing costs. It also reinforces the importance of getting pre-approved for a mortgage to understand what you can realistically afford. Exploring different loan programs and down payment assistance options could also be beneficial.
• For Current Renters: If you're on the fence about buying, the expectation of rising prices might push you to consider making a move sooner rather than later, if your financial situation allows.

It's also worth noting that while mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly to around 6.7% by the end of 2025, according to J.P. Morgan, they aren't predicted to drop dramatically. This means affordability will likely remain a significant challenge for many.

What Does This Mean for Current Homeowners?

If you already own a home, the prediction of a 3% price increase in 2025 is generally positive news. It suggests that your property value is likely to continue appreciating, adding to your wealth.

• For Potential Sellers: While prices are expected to rise, the low supply situation means there might not be a huge rush of buyers. If you're planning to sell, it's still important to price your home competitively and make sure it's in good condition to attract potential buyers. However, you also need to consider where you'll go next and the higher interest rates you might face if you plan to buy another property.

The Wildcard: Potential Impact of a Second Trump Administration

J.P. Morgan also touched on the potential impact of a second Trump administration on the housing market. While specific housing policies haven't been detailed, some potential areas of influence include:

• Zoning Approval Processes: Proposals to streamline these processes could potentially speed up construction timelines and increase housing supply in the long run. However, this often happens at the local level.
• Federal Land Availability: Making more federal land available for building could also help increase the housing stock.
• Immigration Policies: More restrictive immigration policies could lead to labor shortages in the construction industry, potentially hindering new construction and exacerbating the supply issue. On the demand side, reduced immigration could theoretically lessen demand for housing, but the impact isn't straightforward.

John Sim from J.P. Morgan noted that cutting immigration could reduce the labor supply in construction, which might actually make affordable housing even harder to come by. It's a complex issue with potential unintended consequences.

Efforts to Reduce Housing Costs: A Look at California

The high cost of housing, particularly in states like California, is a major concern. Lawmakers are exploring ways to make housing more affordable by addressing the lack of supply. In California, where there's an estimated shortage of 2.5 million homes, bipartisan legislators have proposed over 20 bills aimed at fast-tracking the housing approval process to make building easier and more efficient. These efforts highlight the recognition that increasing supply is a crucial step in tackling housing affordability.

My Final Thoughts: A Slow and Steady Market

Based on the data and expert opinions, including those from J.P. Morgan, it looks like the housing market in 2025 will continue to see price growth, but at a much slower and more “subdued” pace than what we've experienced in recent years. The combination of low existing home inventory due to the interest rate lock-in and a demand side that's being kept in check by affordability concerns is creating a somewhat frozen market.

While a 3% increase might not be dramatic, it's still a factor that potential buyers and sellers need to consider. For buyers, it means the window of opportunity for prices to drop significantly might not be opening anytime soon. For sellers, it suggests continued appreciation, but the lower demand might require a more strategic approach to selling.

Ultimately, the housing market is influenced by a complex interplay of economic factors, and while forecasts provide valuable insights, they aren't guarantees. It's always a good idea to keep a close eye on local market trends and consult with real estate professionals for advice tailored to your specific situation.

Let's talk about the housing market in 2025. It's a topic that gets a lot of people thinking, and maybe a little worried. While national numbers often paint a broad picture, the real story in real estate is always local. Based on recent expert analysis and market data, there are certainly areas showing significant vulnerability. If you're looking to buy or invest, or even sell, understanding where the risks might be highest is crucial. So, let's cut right to it: based on the latest insights, here are the 5 Riskiest Housing Markets to avoid in 2025 that may crash, or at least see significant price declines.

5 Riskiest Housing Markets to Avoid in 2025 That May Crash

Let's be clear from the start: when I say “crash,” I'm talking about the potential for significant price drops, not necessarily a repeat of 2008 across the board. The market dynamics are different now. However, rapid price appreciation combined with shifting economic factors and local inventory changes can create conditions ripe for a sharp correction, which for someone who bought at the peak, feels very much like a crash.

The Shifting Sands of the 2025 Housing Market

Before we dive into the specific risky markets, it's helpful to understand the bigger picture right now. According to the March 2025 data I've been looking at, the housing market's attempt at a spring revival was pretty short-lived.

According to the latest insights by Cotality (Formerly CoreLogic), March saw a bump in pending sales – about 12% higher than the year before – which you might think is a sign of strength. And yes, lower mortgage rates did help nudge some buyers off the fence. But here's the catch: year-over-year price growth actually slowed down, ticking in at 2.5% in March, down slightly from 2.9% in February.

Now, 2.5% growth isn't negative, but it's a far cry from the double-digit gains we saw during the pandemic frenzy. The forecast suggests price growth might speed up a bit by March 2026, perhaps hitting 4.9%, but that's a forecast, and a lot can change.

What I find particularly interesting is how much the market is splitting depending on where you look. You have states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey still seeing strong price growth, upwards of 7% year-over-year. Why? Well, as Chief Economist Selma Hepp points out, a severe lack of homes for sale in these areas, often combined with prices that are still relatively more affordable (median around $230,000 in the Midwest/Northeast mentioned), is propping things up.

On the flip side, states like Utah and Idaho, which saw explosive growth earlier, are now experiencing price drops – 2.1% and 2.2% respectively in March. This tells me that the party of non-stop appreciation is definitely over in some places, especially those that became severely unaffordable after huge run-ups.

And then there's a state like Georgia. The data shows prices hitting new records in parts of the state, maybe because folks are still moving south. But the overall state saw a negative price appreciation of -0.3% in March. This highlights a critical point: you can't just look at state-level data; you must look at specific metro areas.

Why Are Some Markets Looking Shaky?

The data points to a few key culprits making certain markets vulnerable:

1. Affordability Has Reached a Breaking Point: Markets like Florida and Texas saw cumulative price increases of 70% to 90% since the pandemic started. Think about that – home prices nearly doubled in just a few years! Meanwhile, incomes haven't kept pace. This creates a massive affordability problem. When homes are simply too expensive for the typical local buyer, demand starts to dry up unless there's constant migration of high-income earners.
2. Inventory is Rising, Fast: In many of these areas that boomed, builders ramped up construction, and perhaps homeowners who locked in super-low rates are now being forced to sell or deciding to cash out. The data specifically mentions “rapidly rising inventories” in weakened markets like Florida and Texas. When there are suddenly more homes for sale than buyers willing or able to purchase them, prices have to adjust downwards. It's basic supply and demand.
3. Higher Costs Hit Harder in Stretched Markets: Mortgage rates, property taxes, insurance (especially in areas prone to climate risks like Florida) – these non-mortgage costs eat into affordability. In markets where people are already stretched thin because of high prices, these extra costs can be the straw that breaks the camel's back, pushing even more potential buyers out of the market.
4. Consumer Jitters: The Chief Economist mentioned consumer concerns about personal finances, job prospects, and wider economic worries. This kind of uncertainty makes people hesitant to make the biggest purchase of their lives, further slowing demand, especially in markets that rely on continued strong buyer confidence.

When you combine sky-high prices built on rapid appreciation, increasing inventory, and buyers pulling back due to costs and uncertainty, you have a recipe for potential price declines. This is precisely what seems to be happening in several areas, particularly in Florida and Texas, which the data highlights as weakened states, now joining places like Hawaii and Washington D.C. in showing negative price changes in March. In fact, eight out of eleven markets measured in Florida saw negative annual changes. That's significant!

The data by Cotality also provides a list of the “Coolest Markets” based on year-over-year price change. Look at some of the places on that list: Fort Myers, FL (-5.3%), Punta Gorda, FL (-4.1%), Sarasota, FL (-3.6%), Victoria, TX (-4.6%), Coeur D'Alene, ID (-3.4%), Pocatello, ID (-3.1%). Many of these saw massive price increases during the pandemic boom and are now correcting. This reinforces the idea that areas with huge, rapid gains are often the most vulnerable when conditions shift.

The Core Concern: The 5 Riskiest Markets

Based on the specific “Markets to watch” identified in the data as having a “very high risk of price decline” among the top 100 metro areas, here are the five markets that appear to be on shaky ground heading into 2025:

• 1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
• 2. Atlanta, Georgia
• 3. Winter Haven, Florida
• 4. Tampa, Florida
• 5. Tucson, Arizona

Let's break down my perspective on why these specific markets are flagged, based on the provided data and charts:

1. Albuquerque, New Mexico

Looking at the high-risk market price trend chart, Albuquerque's line is one of the lower ones, but critically, it shows a noticeable dip recently, especially towards the end of 2024 and into early 2025. While it had a run-up in the post-pandemic boom, it didn't reach the extreme peaks seen in some other cities on this risky list. However, any market that shows a recent downturn after a period of appreciation is concerning.

My take: Albuquerque is a smaller market than places like Atlanta or Tampa. Smaller markets can sometimes be more susceptible to volatility if major employers shrink or leave, or if inventory jumps significantly without enough incoming demand. The recent price dip in the chart suggests supply might be starting to outweigh demand, or buyers are simply saying “no” at current price levels after the earlier growth.

2. Atlanta, Georgia

This one is interesting. The data states that Georgia overall saw negative price appreciation (-0.3%) in March, even though parts of the state hit record prices. Atlanta is the major metro area driving Georgia's housing market narrative. The chart for Atlanta shows a significant peak in mid-2022, followed by a noticeable dip, then a bounce back up in late 2023/early 2024, and now seems to be showing another plateau or slight downturn heading into March 2025.

My take: Atlanta attracted massive numbers of new residents during the pandemic thanks to its relative affordability (compared to coastal cities), job market, and quality of life. However, that popularity drove prices up dramatically. The negative state-level data combined with the volatile price trend line for Atlanta in the chart suggests that affordability is now a major challenge for many potential buyers. Plus, Atlanta is a major metro, which often sees more development and potentially faster inventory increases than smaller towns. This combination of stretched affordability and potential inventory growth puts it at risk.

3. Winter Haven, Florida

Florida markets feature heavily on this risky list, and for good reason, as the data repeatedly points out Florida as a “weakened” state with negative annual changes in many markets. Winter Haven is specifically called out as “one of the top five most at-risk markets in the country.” Looking at its price trend on the chart, Winter Haven saw a huge percentage increase from early 2021 to mid-2022, perhaps one of the most dramatic run-ups on that specific chart. Since its peak, prices have been volatile, showing significant drops followed by partial recoveries, but the trend seems flatter or even slightly down heading into 2025 compared to its peak.

My take: Winter Haven is part of Central Florida, an area that became incredibly popular due to relative affordability compared to South Florida or coastal areas, plus attractions and jobs. But that rapid popularity led to massive price spikes. When prices go up 70-90% in just a few years across the state, markets like Winter Haven, which saw some of the most explosive growth, become extremely vulnerable. They likely reached or exceeded what local incomes can support, and as inventory rises (which the data confirms is happening across Florida), prices have less support.

4. Tampa, Florida

Another Florida market on the list. Like Winter Haven, Tampa saw a very strong price increase from 2021 to 2022 according to the chart, peaking around mid-2022. It then saw a significant correction, a slight rebound, and now the line appears to be trending downwards again towards March 2025. Tampa is a much larger metro area than Winter Haven but faced similar pressures: huge influx of residents, rapid price growth, and now dealing with the state-wide issues of rising inventory and affordability challenges mentioned in the data.

My take: Tampa's economy is more diverse than some smaller Florida towns, but it still experienced an unsustainable surge in home values. It's a classic example of a market where demand outpaced supply dramatically for a time, driving prices sky-high. Now, as supply catches up and affordability bites, the market is struggling to sustain those peak prices. The chart clearly shows volatility and a recent downward trend reinforcing its high-risk status.

5. Tucson, Arizona

Tucson also saw substantial price growth through 2021 and 2022, peaking in early 2023 according to the chart. Since that peak, the trend has been choppy but generally downwards or flat, with a notable dip in late 2024 and early 2025. While the data specifically calls out Utah and Idaho for Western state price drops, Arizona markets like Tucson often follow similar patterns as they attracted remote workers and migrants seeking lower costs than California during the boom.

My take: Similar to other boomtowns, Tucson's rapid appreciation likely pushed it beyond the reach of many local buyers. As the national economy cools and remote work policies potentially shift, the influx of high-earners might slow, while increased inventory (either from new builds or people needing to sell) puts downward pressure on prices. The chart's recent downward movement makes its inclusion on this high-risk list understandable.

My Perspective on These Risks

As someone who watches market trends closely, I believe the key takeaway from this data and this list of risky markets isn't panic, but awareness. These are markets that went through a period of hyper-growth that simply wasn't sustainable relative to underlying economic fundamentals like local wages.

When I look at these five cities, I see common threads: they likely experienced massive price pumps over the last few years, attracting investors and out-of-state buyers, but potentially leaving local residents behind. Now, as interest rates make borrowing more expensive and inflation eats into savings, combined with rising options for buyers (more houses on the market), the scales are tipping.

Think about it: if a home's price doubled, but local salaries didn't, who is left to buy it when investors step back and migration slows? This is where you see prices start to slide. The data confirms this dynamic, particularly highlighting the “cumulative price increases since the pandemic” as a major factor in states like Florida and Texas becoming “weakened.”

This isn't just academic for me; it influences how I'd advise friends or family looking at these specific areas. I'd tell them to do extra homework. Look specifically at inventory trends in that metro area. How long are homes sitting on the market? Are sellers having to cut prices? Are there a lot of new construction developments finishing up? These ground-level details, combined with the high-risk flags from expert analysis, give a much clearer picture than national headlines.

Beyond the Top 5: Warning Signs in Other Areas

While these five markets are flagged as the riskiest among the top 100 metros, the data suggests the vulnerability isn't limited to just them. The list of “coolest markets” provides further clues. Seeing multiple Florida cities on that list reinforces the widespread nature of the price softness in that state. Similarly, markets in states like Texas and Idaho appearing on that list align with the general trends the report identifies in those regions.

It's a reminder that even if a city isn't on the “top 5 riskiest” list, if it experienced a massive pandemic boom and is now seeing inventory rise or sales slow, it could still be facing a significant price correction in 2025.

What Does “Crash” Really Mean Here?

Again, let's manage expectations. A “crash” in this context is likely referring to a significant correction – perhaps 10%, 15%, or even 20%+ declines from the peak values reached during the frenzy. For someone who bought near the top with a small down payment, a 15-20% drop can wipe out their equity, which feels devastating. For investors who bought speculating on continued rapid growth, it can mean losses.

It's less likely (though not impossible in specific micro-markets) to see the kind of nationwide 30-50% drops some experienced in 2008, primarily because lending standards have been much tighter. However, prolonged stagnation or gradual decline can also be painful for sellers and impact the broader economy. The risk highlighted for these five markets is that the price declines could be sharper or more sustained than elsewhere.

Who Should Be Concerned?

• Potential Buyers in These Markets: This data is a giant yellow flag. You have more leverage than sellers might admit. Do your research, don't overpay, and be prepared for the possibility that the home's value might drop after you buy it. That's less concerning if you plan to stay long-term, but critical if you might need to sell in the next 3-5 years.
• Potential Sellers in These Markets: You might need to adjust your expectations significantly. The days of putting a sign in the yard and getting multiple offers over asking price are likely over. You'll need to price competitively based on current conditions, not peak 2022 values.
• Investors in These Markets: If you bought rental properties or flips expecting quick appreciation, the next few years could be challenging. Negative price movement impacts equity and makes flipping harder. Rental markets are also complex and tied to local economies.

Wrapping It Up

The housing market in 2025 is shaping up to be highly localized. While some areas in the Northeast and Midwest are holding steady or even seeing modest growth thanks to limited inventory and relative affordability, markets that saw explosive, potentially unsustainable growth during the pandemic are now facing headwinds.

The data points to Albuquerque, Atlanta, Winter Haven, Tampa, and Tucson as particularly risky, showing trends and underlying factors that increase the likelihood of price declines or significant corrections.

Understanding these risks isn't about predicting the future with 100% certainty, but about making informed decisions. If you're considering a move or investment in one of these areas, proceed with extra caution, do thorough local research, and perhaps consult with a real estate professional who truly understands the current dynamics in that specific metro, not just the national headlines. The goal is to avoid stepping into a market that could see your investment shrink in the near term.

Everyone's been whispering about it: Will the housing market finally crash in 2025? Well, according to the financial guru Dave Ramsey, the answer is a firm no. His 2025 housing market predictions suggest we won't see a collapse. Instead, Ramsey points towards a market that's stabilizing, with prices remaining relatively high and mortgage rates unlikely to plummet back to the historic lows we once saw. This is crucial information if you're thinking of buying, selling, or just trying to understand where things are headed in the real estate world.

Housing Market Predictions 2025 by Dave Ramsey: Will it Crash?

I've been keeping a close eye on the housing market myself, and honestly, Ramsey's outlook aligns with what I'm seeing on the ground. While the frantic pace of the past few years has certainly cooled down, the fundamental factors that would lead to a major crash just don't seem to be in place. Let's dive deeper into what Ramsey and the data suggest for the year ahead.

Will Mortgage Rates Ever Go Down Significantly?

If you're holding out for mortgage rates to return to those sweet 3% days, Ramsey suggests it's time to adjust your expectations. The Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage peaked at around 7.79% in late 2023 and has since settled somewhat, sitting around 6.89% at the start of 2025.

Ramsey's prediction is that we'll likely see rates stabilize around the 6.5% mark, but a significant drop below that isn't anticipated. Factors like ongoing inflation and the Federal Reserve's policies will continue to play a role in keeping rates at a more moderate level.

My take on this? I agree with Ramsey. The era of ultra-cheap mortgages was largely an anomaly. While I wouldn't rule out minor fluctuations, I think a return to those rock-bottom rates is unlikely in the near future. If you're in a solid financial position to buy, waiting for a significantly lower rate could mean missing out on a home you love, especially if prices continue their upward trend, even if at a slower pace.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House? Dave Ramsey's Perspective

Forget about trying to perfectly time the market – it's a fool's errand, as Ramsey often says. The real question isn't about the “perfect” market conditions, but rather whether you are in a good financial position to buy.

Here's Dave Ramsey's straightforward advice on when it's a good time for you to buy:

• You are completely debt-free (excluding your mortgage).
• You have a fully funded emergency fund that covers 3 to 6 months of your living expenses.
• You can comfortably afford a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage with monthly payments that are no more than 25% of your take-home pay.
• You have a solid down payment. While a 20% down payment is ideal to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), Ramsey acknowledges that 5-10% can be workable for first-time buyers. He generally advises against FHA and VA loans due to their additional fees.

In my experience, Ramsey's principles are spot on. Buying a home is a huge financial commitment, and going into it with a strong financial foundation is the best way to ensure long-term success and peace of mind, regardless of short-term market fluctuations.

How Will President Trump's Policies Affect the Housing Market?

With Donald Trump now back in the Oval Office, many are wondering what impact his policies might have on the housing market. Ramsey's report correctly points out that presidents don't directly control mortgage rates or housing prices – those are primarily driven by supply and demand. However, policy changes can certainly exert influence.

Here are some potential areas where President Trump's administration could nudge the housing market:

• Zoning Laws: We might see efforts to loosen zoning restrictions at the federal level or incentives for states and localities to do so. This could potentially increase the supply of new housing over time, which could help moderate price growth.
• Infrastructure Spending: Increased investment in infrastructure projects could make certain areas more attractive, potentially boosting home values in those regions.
• Federal Land Use: Opening up more federal land for development could lead to an increase in available housing in some areas.

It's important to remember that these types of policy changes tend to have a gradual impact rather than causing immediate shifts. While political factors can influence the market, your personal financial situation should always be the primary driver of your home-buying decisions.

Why a Housing Market Crash in 2025 is Unlikely

For those hoping for a major housing market crash, Ramsey offers a clear perspective: it's not in the cards for 2025. This aligns with projections from entities like the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which anticipates home prices to continue rising in the coming year, albeit likely at a more moderate pace.

The fundamental reasons why a crash like the one in 2008 is unlikely include:

• No Over-Supply: Unlike the pre-2008 era, we don't have a massive oversupply of homes on the market. In fact, in many areas, inventory remains relatively tight.
• Strong Buyer Demand: Despite higher mortgage rates, there's still a significant underlying demand for housing. People need places to live, and for many, homeownership remains a key financial goal.
• Stricter Lending Practices: Lending standards are much tighter now than they were in the lead-up to the 2008 crisis. This means borrowers are generally more qualified and less likely to default on their mortgages.
• More Home Equity: Homeowners today typically have more equity in their homes compared to the pre-2008 period, providing a buffer against potential price declines.
• Low Foreclosure Rates: As reported by ATTOM Data, foreclosure activity actually dropped by 10% in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue. There isn't a looming wave of foreclosures that would flood the market and drive down prices.

In my opinion, focusing on increasing your income, saving diligently, and getting your financial house in order is a much more productive approach than waiting for a crash that probably won't materialize.

Understanding Average vs. Median Home Prices in 2025

When we talk about home prices, it's important to understand the difference between the average and the median. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, the average U.S. home price at the end of 2024 was around $510,300. However, the median home price, which gives a more representative picture by excluding the impact of very high or low-priced homes, was approximately $419,200.

The reason the average is higher is that a relatively small number of very expensive homes can skew the overall average upwards. The median provides a better sense of what a typical home is selling for.

While home values have continued to rise in most areas, the dramatic price surges we saw during the 2020-2022 period have definitely calmed down. Prices aren't crashing, but they aren't skyrocketing either – they appear to be stabilizing. If you're in the market, especially in areas with limited inventory, expect to pay close to the asking price for desirable properties.

Inventory Levels: Are More Homes Becoming Available?

Housing inventory has been a significant challenge for buyers for quite some time. While there's some positive news on this front, it's important to keep it in perspective. January 2025 marked the 15th consecutive month of inventory growth. Realtor.com reported that the number of available homes was about 24.6% higher than the previous year. This is a step in the right direction, giving buyers slightly more options.

However, it's crucial to note that inventory levels are still significantly below where they were before the pandemic in 2020. This means that while the situation is improving, buyers still don't have the abundance of choices they once did, and this limited supply continues to put upward pressure on prices in many markets, especially in high-demand cities where new construction struggles to keep pace. While a healthier market is forming, don't expect a sudden surge in available homes.

Buyer Demand: Is It Still Going Strong?

Despite mortgage rates hovering above 6.5%, buyer demand hasn't disappeared. Redfin's data from January 2025 showed that 22.4% of homes sold for more than their asking price, indicating that there's still plenty of competition for desirable properties.

While demand typically follows seasonal patterns – stronger in the summer and slower in the winter – the overall trend remains relatively steady. If mortgage rates were to dip below 6.5%, we could likely see an even greater influx of buyers entering the market, further intensifying competition.

For those hoping for a significant drop-off in buyer demand, it's likely they'll be disappointed. The fundamental need for housing remains, and with inventory still constrained, demand isn't expected to wane dramatically.

2025: A Buyer's or Seller's Market? Dave Ramsey's Take

According to Dave Ramsey's analysis, the housing market is currently in a transitional phase, but sellers still generally hold the upper hand in most areas. The persistent imbalance between supply and demand means that well-priced homes in good locations are still selling relatively quickly.

That being said, the extreme bidding wars and rapid-fire offers we saw during the peak of 2021-2022 have subsided somewhat. Buyers have a little more time to consider their options and aren't always pressured into making lightning-fast decisions on overpriced properties. Sellers who try to push prices too high, expecting a frenzy, might find their homes sitting on the market longer.

The key for sellers in 2025 will be to price their homes realistically. Buyers are more discerning now and are less willing to overpay for a property that doesn't meet their expectations or budget.

Will There Be a Significant Increase in Foreclosures in 2025?

Dave Ramsey does not anticipate a surge in foreclosures in 2025. Data from ATTOM indicates that foreclosure rates actually decreased in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue.

Several factors contribute to this outlook:

• Stricter Lending Standards: As mentioned earlier, lending practices are much more rigorous now, meaning borrowers are generally more creditworthy.
• Greater Homeowner Equity: Many homeowners have built up significant equity in their properties, providing a financial cushion.
• A Relatively Strong Economy: While there are always economic uncertainties, we aren't currently facing the kind of widespread economic distress that could trigger a massive wave of defaults.

For buyers hoping to find deeply discounted foreclosure deals, the pickings are likely to remain slim due to the low overall foreclosure inventory. Waiting for an economic collapse to flood the market with cheap homes is likely to be a long and ultimately unsuccessful strategy.

How to Buy a Home with Confidence in the 2025 Market

Navigating the 2025 housing market requires a focus on financial preparedness rather than trying to predict market swings. Dave Ramsey's time-tested advice for confident home buying remains relevant:

• Get your financial house in order: This means paying off all non-mortgage debt and building a solid emergency fund.
• Save a substantial down payment: Aim for at least 20% if possible, but understand that 5-10% might be a starting point for some first-time buyers.
• Stick to a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Avoid the risks associated with adjustable-rate mortgages and the extra fees often tied to government-backed loans.
• Ensure your monthly mortgage payment (including principal, interest, property taxes, and insurance) is no more than 25% of your take-home pay.
• Work with a knowledgeable real estate agent: A good agent who understands the local market can provide invaluable guidance.

In my own experience, focusing on these fundamentals will put you in the strongest possible position to buy a home that fits your needs and budget, regardless of the market's minor ups and downs.

How to Sell Your Home for the Best Price in 2025

While Ramsey believes sellers still have a slight advantage, simply listing your home at an inflated price and expecting a bidding war is no longer a viable strategy in most markets. Here's how to maximize your selling price in 2025:

• Price your home strategically: Work closely with your real estate agent to determine a competitive and realistic listing price based on recent comparable sales in your area. Overpricing can lead to your home sitting on the market, eventually requiring price reductions that can make buyers wonder what's wrong with the property.
• Prepare your home for sale: Invest in minor upgrades and repairs, such as fresh paint, fixing leaky faucets, and ensuring everything is clean and well-maintained. First impressions matter.
• Stage your home effectively: Help buyers envision themselves living in the space by decluttering and arranging furniture in an appealing way. Consider professional staging for the best results.
• Take high-quality photos: In today's market, most buyers start their search online. Professional, well-lit photos are crucial for attracting attention and generating showings.
• Be prepared to be flexible: While it's still a seller's market in many areas, buyers are becoming more selective. Be open to negotiating and addressing reasonable requests.

Sellers who are realistic about pricing and presentation are the ones who will ultimately achieve the best results in the 2025 market.

The Bottom Line: Navigating the 2025 Housing Market

Dave Ramsey's 2025 housing market predictions point to a market that is stabilizing rather than crashing. While mortgage rates are higher than in recent years, they are expected to remain relatively steady. Home prices are also holding firm, with inventory showing some improvement but still remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Buyer demand continues to be resilient, giving sellers a slight edge in many areas.

The key takeaway, according to Ramsey, is that timing the market is less important than being financially prepared. Whether you're looking to buy or sell, focusing on your individual financial situation and making sound, well-informed decisions is the best approach to navigating the 2025 housing market successfully. Don't wait for a drastic market shift that may never come; instead, make a move when your personal finances are solid and the time is right for you.