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Housing Market Gains Supply But Buyers Hit Pause in 2025

October 18, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Inventory Climbs—Yet Momentum Remains Elusive

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher out there right now. You’d think that with more homes hitting the market, things would be buzzing. But that’s not exactly what’s happening. The housing market gets more supply of homes, but buyers hit pause, creating a bit of a standstill. While there are more choices for potential homeowners, the actual buying and selling isn’t picking up speed as you might expect.

From my perspective, looking at how things are playing out, this slowdown isn't a surprise. We've seen this dance before. Homeowners are hesitant to sell because they might have locking in a low mortgage rate a few years back, and buying a new place means taking on a new loan at a higher rate. Plus, for buyers, even with a bit more inventory, affordability is still a big hurdle. So, while the shelves are getting a little fuller, people are mostly window shopping for now.

Housing Market Gains Supply But Buyers Hit Pause in 2025

More Listings, But Where's the Rush?

Looking at the numbers, especially from Realtor.com®, it’s clear that sellers are starting to come back around. The first week of October actually saw more new homes pop up for sale compared to the weeks right before it. This is a good sign, reversing a short dip we saw. However, the overall energy of the market hasn't really changed much.

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com®, points out something important: “Homes continue to spend more time on the market than last year, and prices remain flat, signaling higher inventory and lower competition.” This tells me that even though there are more homes available, there aren’t as many folks rushing to grab them. It’s like a store putting more items out, but nobody’s lining up to buy them.

It’s also worth noting this isn't a one-size-fits-all situation. While the national scene is pretty mellow, some spots in the Midwest and Northeast are still pretty hot. These areas often have fewer homes to begin with, and when demand is high, buyers have to be super ready and quick to make an offer.

Inventory is Growing, But Slower Than It Used To Be

The big story is that the total number of homes you can choose from across the country has gone up quite a bit – about 15.1% compared to this time last year. That’s a significant increase, no doubt.

But here’s where it gets interesting: the pace at which this inventory is growing has actually started to slow down. It’s been happening for 17 weeks straight. Think of it like a bathtub filling up. The water level is rising, but the faucet isn't gushing as much as it was. As of October 4th, we had about 1.1 million homes on the market nationwide.

Hannah Jones explains this dynamic: “Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.” This is a crucial point. It means the homes that are already listed are just… staying there longer. This isn't because of a flood of new sellers, but because homes aren't selling quickly.

Prices are Stable, But Maybe Not as Strong as They Seem

When we look at prices, the median list price hasn’t budged a whole lot when you compare it to the same week in 2024. It’s flat. However, if you adjust for the size of the home, the price per square foot has actually dipped by about 0.5% year-over-year. This is the fifth week in a row that this has happened.

My take on this is that while sellers might not be slashing prices dramatically, the underlying value of homes might be feeling some pressure. Hannah Jones puts it well: “Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.” Essentially, even if the sticker price looks the same, the home’s true worth, based on what buyers are willing to pay now, might be a little less.

Homes are Taking Their Time

Another big signal from the market is how long homes are hanging around before they sell. The typical home is now taking about 63 days on the market. For reference, this is pretty similar to what we saw before the pandemic really kicked into high gear.

This longer time on the market is a double-edged sword for sellers. On one hand, it means they have less pressure to sell immediately. On the other hand, as homes sit longer and longer, sellers often get more motivated to make a deal. Jones notes, “As homes spend longer on the market, sellers are more likely to reduce their asking price, eager to close a sale before the end of the year.” So, while prices might be flat overall, we might see more price reductions as the year winds down and sellers want to get rid of their properties.

What This Means for You

For buyers, this current situation presents a bit of a silver lining. You have:

  • More Choices: With more inventory, you aren't as likely to be in a bidding war.
  • More Time: You can take your time looking at properties without the intense pressure of just a few weeks ago.
  • Potential for Negotiation: Homes staying on the market longer can give you more room to negotiate on price or terms.

However, it's still tough:

  • Affordability Concerns: Higher mortgage rates are still a major barrier for many.
  • Competition in Hot Areas: Don’t forget that some markets are still very competitive.

For sellers, it means:

  • Patience is Key: Your home might take longer to sell than it did a year or two ago.
  • Realistic Pricing: It's crucial to price your home competitively from the start.
  • Be Prepared for Offers: You might need to be open to negotiation.

Ultimately, the housing market gets more supply of homes but buyers hit pause because the economic currents are complex. While more homes are available, the affordability challenges and the lingering uncertainty mean that many are waiting on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as we move into the new year.

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While new listings are up in several key metros, buyer hesitation continues amid higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Sellers, on the other hand, remain cautious about listing as they sit on ultra-low-rate mortgages from prior years.

The result? A market that’s loosening, but not yet moving. Buyers now have more leverage, but deals are still taking time to close as affordability remains a major hurdle.

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Want to Know More?

Explore these related articles for even more insights:

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    • NAR Chief's Bold Predictions for the 2025 Housing Market
    • Housing Market Update 2025: NAR Report Indicates Sluggish Trends
    • 7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale
    • The $1 Trillion Club: America's Richest Housing Markets Revealed
    • 4 States Dominate as the Riskiest Housing Markets in 2025
    • Housing Market Predictions 2025 by Norada Real Estate
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    • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2029
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

Housing Market 2025: Booming vs. Shrinking Inventory Across America

October 15, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Inventory Climbs—Yet Momentum Remains Elusive

It’s a tale of two housing markets in 2025. While overall inventory is climbing, the story isn't the same everywhere. Some areas are seeing a flood of homes for sale, while others remain bone-dry, creating a significant divide that buyers and sellers alike need to understand.

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home this year, pay close attention, because where you are matters more than ever.

For a while now, I've been watching the housing market closely, and it feels like we’ve entered a new phase. Gone are the days of bidding wars on every street and homes selling in a blink of an eye. Instead, we're seeing a more nuanced market, and the biggest story of 2025 has to be this growing inventory divide. It’s not just about more houses being available; it’s about where those houses are, and what that means for prices and competition.

Housing Market 2025: Booming vs. Shrinking Inventory Across America

According to the September 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report from Realtor.com®, actively listed homes across the country have jumped by a healthy 17.0% compared to last year. That's a good sign for buyers, meaning more choices on the table. However, the speed at which this inventory is growing has actually slowed down since May. Think of it like this: the tide is still coming in, but it’s not rushing in quite as fast. Even with this increase, we're still 13.9% below where we were before the pandemic hit, which keeps things from feeling too, too easy.

But here’s where it gets really interesting and a bit complicated: this inventory growth is not happening evenly. The Realtor.com® report highlights a widening gap between regions. Places in the South and West are actually seeing more homes for sale than before the pandemic, and they're still adding to that supply. On the flip side, the Northeast and Midwest are still struggling with serious inventory shortages.

This isn't just a small difference; it's a major shift that’s changing the game for people looking to buy or sell.

The Regional Story: Oceans Apart in Inventory

Let's break down this regional divide. It’s the biggest story in housing right now, and it’s fundamentally changing what it means to be a buyer or seller depending on where you live.

Where Inventory is Booming (or at least Recovering Well):

The South and West are leading the pack in inventory recovery. According to Realtor.com® data from September 2025, these regions have not only surpassed their pre-pandemic inventory levels but are still seeing that supply grow. Metros like Denver and Austin, which were once incredibly tight markets, now have significantly more homes available than they did in the 2017-2019 period. Denver, for example, is 59.6% above its pre-pandemic inventory norm! Austin isn't far behind, at 46.9%. This is a huge shift from just a few years ago.

We're seeing year-over-year inventory growth in all four major regions, but the West is seeing the fastest pace at +21.1%, followed closely by the South at +17.9%. Even within these booming areas, some cities are really standing out. Washington, D.C. saw active listings jump by a massive 48.7% year-over-year, and Las Vegas is up 40.8%.

What's behind this surge? A combination of factors could be at play. In some of these faster-growing areas, there might have been more new construction built during the boom years that is now coming onto the market. Also, sellers in these markets might be more motivated to list as prices have held strong or are even increasing on a per-square-foot basis, especially in the Northeast.

Where Inventory Remains Scarce (The Supply Crunch Continues):

In stark contrast, the Northeast and Midwest are still deeply undersupplied. These regions are the ones grappling with the aftermath of years of limited building and a sustained demand. Realtor.com® data shows that the Northeast is still 48.6% below pre-pandemic inventory levels, and the Midwest is 36.4% below.

The pace of inventory growth in these areas is much slower. The Midwest saw an increase of 13.2% year-over-year, while the Northeast lagged behind at 10.1%. This means that while there are more homes than last year, there still aren't nearly enough to go around for the number of people who want to buy.

Cities like Hartford, CT, are experiencing the most severe shortages, sitting a staggering 74.8% below their pre-pandemic inventory. Chicago isn't doing much better, at 56.9% below, and Providence is 55.1% below. These are areas where finding a home is still a significant challenge for buyers, and competition remains fierce.

My Take: This regional divergence makes perfect sense when you think about population shifts and building trends. The South and West have been magnets for people moving from more expensive states, and while building might have lagged temporarily, it often picked up more steam there. The Northeast and Midwest, particularly older industrial areas, have faced demographic challenges and less robust new construction over decades, exacerbating the current supply crunch.

The Flow of Homes: New Listings and Pending Sales

It’s not just about the total homes on the market; the flow of new listings and how quickly homes go under contract tells us a lot about the momentum of the market.

New Listings: A Mixed Bag

Nationally, Realtor.com® reported a slight dip in newly listed homes by 1.2% year-over-year in September 2025. This follows a strong September in 2024, making the year-over-year comparison a bit tricky. New listings are also down 1.8% since last month and are significantly below their April peak for the year.

However, the trend is different by region. The Northeast and Midwest actually saw an increase in new listings (+1.3% and +2.4%, respectively). This might be contributing to the relative inventory gains in those areas. On the other hand, the South saw a decrease of 3.5%, and the West was flat at -0.1%.

Cities that saw the strongest growth in new listings include Indianapolis (+10.6%), Charlotte (+9.7%), and Detroit (+8.0%).

Pending Sales: Slowing Down

While inventory is up, buyer enthusiasm, as measured by pending sales, is more subdued. Nationally, pending sales—homes that are under contract and waiting to close—were flat year-over-year. This is the first time we haven't seen a year-over-year decrease in pending sales in 2025, which is a slight positive, but it’s a far cry from the rapid sales we saw a few years ago.

This slowness in pending sales, combined with the increasing inventory, is what's giving buyers a bit more breathing room.

Momentum: How Long Homes Are Sitting and What They're Selling For

The pace of the market is a crucial indicator. Data from Realtor.com® in September 2025 shows that the typical home spent 62 days on the market. That's a full week longer than last September. This marks the 18th consecutive month where homes have taken longer to sell compared to the previous year. This extended time on market is a key reason why inventory is climbing.

Time on Market: The Slow Clock Ticks Louder

  • West: Homes are taking 10 days longer to sell compared to last year.
  • South: An 8-day increase in days on market.
  • Midwest: A modest 3-day increase.
  • Northeast: The slowest change at just 1 day longer.

Interestingly, when we look at this compared to pre-pandemic times, only the West is experiencing slower sales. The South, Midwest, and especially the Northeast are actually selling homes faster than they did before COVID-19. This again underlines the severe supply constraints in the Northeast.

Metros like Miami (+16 days), Orlando (+14 days), and Las Vegas (+13 days) are seeing homes sit the longest, reinforcing the broader cooling trend in those areas.

My Observation: This slowdown in market speed is significant. It gives buyers more time to see homes, consider their options, and negotiate. Sellers can't just list a home and expect it to fly off the shelves anymore. It requires more strategic pricing and marketing.

List Prices: Flat Nationally, But Regional Declines and Nuances

The national median list price held steady at $425,000 in September 2025, unchanged from last year. However, when you dig deeper, the story shifts dramatically. The West saw prices dip by 3.6% year-over-year.

On a price per square foot basis – a better measure of value that accounts for home size – the differences are even starker:

  • Northeast: Prices are rising (+3.1%).
  • Midwest: Prices are also seeing modest increases (+1.2%).
  • South: Prices are falling (-1.2%).
  • West: Prices are also falling (-1.6%).

This means that while the national average might look stable, homes in the Northeast are becoming more expensive on a per-square-foot basis, while those in the West and South are becoming relatively cheaper, even if the overall median list price hasn't moved much.

Price Cuts: A Buyer’s Best Friend (Especially in Certain Areas)

Price cuts are still a defining feature of the 2025 market. Nearly 20% of listings nationwide saw a price reduction in September. This is up slightly from last year, and it signals that sellers are adjusting their expectations.

Where Sellers Are Cutting Prices:

The Realtor.com® data reveals that price cuts are more common at the lower end of the market. Sellers listing homes under $350,000 are the most likely to cut their prices. In contrast, sellers of luxury homes (over $1 million) are much more patient, with fewer price reductions on their listings. This makes sense; typically, sellers of more affordable homes need to sell to purchase their next property, making them more sensitive to market conditions. Luxury sellers often have more flexibility.

Regional Differences in Price Cuts:

The Northeast stands out with fewer price cuts (14.0% of listings), again highlighting its strength as a seller's market due to low inventory. The Midwest (19.2%), South (21.1%), and West (20.9%) all saw a higher percentage of listings with price reductions.

Let's Look at Specifics from the Realtor.com® Report:

Imagine Portland, OR, a city with a lot of price cuts. Here, nearly 34.2% of homes under $350k got a price cut, while only 23.6% of homes over $1 million did.

Now, contrast that with Hartford, CT, a much hotter market. In Hartford, price cuts are much less common overall (only 11.0% of listings), and they don't vary as much by price tier. In fact, they are slightly more common at the top of the market, which is the opposite of the national trend. This is a telling sign of just how tight inventory is in places like Hartford.

Putting It All Together: My Expert Take

As someone who has navigated countless real estate transactions, I see this housing market divide as the most critical trend of 2025.

  • For Buyers: If you are in a Southern or Western market where inventory is booming, you are in a much stronger position. You have more choices, more time to decide, and more leverage to negotiate. You might even find sellers more willing to offer concessions. However, if you're looking in the Northeast or Midwest, be prepared for a much tougher competition. You'll need to act quickly, have your finances in order, and be ready for potential bidding wars, even if they aren't as intense as a couple of years ago.
  • For Sellers: The old golden rule applies here more than ever: location, location, location. If you're in a high-inventory market (South/West), you'll likely need to be more competitive with your pricing and be open to negotiations. If you're in a low-inventory market (Northeast/Midwest), you're in a much better position to command a good price. However, even in hot markets, beware of overpricing. Even the best markets can see homes sit if the price isn't right. My advice for sellers is to focus on presenting your home immaculately and pricing it strategically based on recent comparable sales, not just wishful thinking. Even a slightly “hotter” market can cool rapidly if inventory suddenly increases or buyer demand wanes.

This divergence also means that national real estate news can be misleading. What’s happening in New York City is very different from what’s happening in Phoenix. Understanding your local market's specific inventory levels, days on market, and price trends is paramount for making smart decisions.

The housing market is always a moving target, but in 2025, the direction your target is in, geographically speaking, is making all the difference.

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Want to Know More About the Housing Market Trends?

Explore these related articles for even more insights:

    • Housing Market Inventory Climbs—Yet Momentum Remains Elusive
    • Mid-Atlantic Housing Market Heats Up as Mortgage Rates Go Down
    • NAR Chief's Bold Predictions for the 2025 Housing Market
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

Mid-Atlantic Housing Market Heats Up as Mortgage Rates Go Down

October 11, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Mid-Atlantic Housing Market Heats Up as Mortgage Rates Go Down

Good news for anyone dreaming of homeownership in the mid-Atlantic! Falling mortgage rates are indeed giving a much-needed push to home sales across many parts of the region, with more properties finding buyers. While the Washington D.C. market is facing some unique headwinds, the overall picture for Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia is looking brighter thanks to this shift in borrowing costs.

As a long-time observer of the real estate world, I've learned that these interest rate fluctuations can dramatically shift the mood of both buyers and sellers. When rates dip, it's like a signal going out to the market: “Hey, it might be time to make that move!” It makes those monthly mortgage payments more manageable, freeing up budgets for more people who have been on the sidelines, waiting for a more opportune moment. And that moment, it seems, has arrived for many in our region.

Mid-Atlantic Housing Market Heats Up as Mortgage Rates Go Down

A Region Revitalized by Lower Rates

Let's break down what this means more precisely, drawing on the insights from Bright MLS, a leading source for regional housing data. In September, we saw a solid increase in completed home sales across the mid-Atlantic, with over 18,600 properties sold. That's a jump of 6.2% compared to the same time last year. This kind of growth is encouraging and signals a healthy demand, especially when you consider the challenges many have faced with affordability in recent years.

While the total number of homes changing hands is up, the pace at which new deals are being initiated – measured by new pending sales – saw a more modest rise of just 0.5%. This suggests that while more buyers are actively looking and closing on homes, the pipeline for future sales is growing a bit more slowly. Simultaneously, the median sale price continued its upward trend, experiencing a 2.4% annual increase and settling at $419,000 last month. This indicates that while the market is gaining momentum, price growth isn't as rapid as it has been in some hotter market periods.

Inventory Surges: A Boon for Buyers?

One of the most significant developments fueling this sales boost is the noticeable increase in available homes. Active listings – the total number of homes for sale at any given time – jumped by nearly 27% compared to last year. On top of that, new listings – homes newly hitting the market – were up about 10% year-over-year.

What does this surge in inventory mean for you, whether you're looking to buy or sell? For buyers, it's a breath of fresh air. More choices mean you have more time to find the right home and potentially a bit more room to negotiate. We're seeing this play out in the median days on market, which has risen to 18 days, an increase of five days from the previous year. This gives buyers a little more breathing room, allowing them to make more informed decisions without the intense pressure of bidding wars that characterized some earlier periods.

For sellers, a larger inventory means a more competitive environment. Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, put it succinctly: “Sellers are adjusting to a new market reality. Buyers now have more options and more negotiating power, and price trends are starting to reflect that shift.” This is a natural evolution of the market, moving from a seller's advantage to a more balanced playing field.

Major Metro Areas Feel the Impact

Let's zoom in on some of the key metropolitan players in the mid-Atlantic and see how they're performing:

  • Baltimore: This vibrant city saw the largest year-over-year spike in closings among the major metros, with a 6.5% increase. The typical home in Baltimore sold for $400,000, representing a modest 0.5% increase from last year. This marks the slowest annual growth we've seen in quite some time. Interestingly, pending sales in Baltimore actually decreased by 3.1%, and showings were also down. The report suggests that as new homes come onto the market at a faster rate than deals are being made, inventory will continue to grow, keeping price appreciation in check.
  • Philadelphia: The City of Brotherly Love also experienced a healthy bump in activity, with closed sales up by 6.1% compared to last year. New pending sales also showed an increase of 2%. Home prices in Philadelphia continued to climb, with the median sale price reaching $390,000, a 2.7% jump from the previous year. However, homes are lingering on the market a bit longer, with listings taking an extra three days on average to sell. This cautious approach from buyers is understandable as they navigate the current market.

Washington D.C. Market Faces Unique Challenges

Now, let's turn our attention to Washington D.C. This market, heavily influenced by federal government activity, is experiencing a different narrative. While the broader mid-Atlantic region is benefiting from falling mortgage rates, D.C. is grappling with uncertainty related to federal job cuts and a government shutdown.

The impact of these federal decisions is palpable. With significant furloughs affecting hundreds of thousands of federal workers, and the threat of further job reductions, potential buyers in the D.C. area are understandably hesitant. Historically, D.C. has a high concentration of federal employees, making its housing market particularly sensitive to changes in government employment and budget.

In September, D.C. saw closings increase by 4.4%, which is still a positive sign. However, the number of new pending sales dropped by 3.3%. Bright MLS speculates that “concerns about a federal government shutdown” are the primary drivers behind this decline for prospective buyers.

The median sale price in the D.C. area was $600,500, showing a very slight increase of just 0.3% year-over-year. The time it’s taking for homes to sell has also increased significantly, with properties now waiting for a buyer for an average of 21 days, a noticeable jump of 10 days from last September.

Dr. Sturtevant, commenting on the D.C. situation, highlighted the market's sensitivity: “The Washington, D.C. area is showing us how sensitive the market is to broader economic and political uncertainty. In places where the federal government has a strong presence, such as D.C., we’re already seeing the impact of the shutdown and job insecurity.” The expectation is that the D.C. market's sales pace will likely remain slower throughout the fall due to these ongoing economic and political concerns.

What the Future Holds

The current trend of falling mortgage rates has undoubtedly injected energy into many mid-Atlantic housing markets, leading to increased home sales and a more balanced environment for buyers. The surge in inventory provides much-needed options, taming rapid price escalations and giving buyers more leverage.

However, the situation in Washington D.C. serves as a crucial reminder that national economic and political factors can create localized challenges. For the rest of the mid-Atlantic, while the boost from lower rates is welcome, experts at Bright MLS caution that this uplift driven by interest rates in the low-6% range might not last forever. As always, staying informed about market trends and seeking professional advice is key for anyone navigating the real estate journey.

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Want to Know More?

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  • Housing Market Update 2025: NAR Report Indicates Sluggish Trends
  • 7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale
  • The $1 Trillion Club: America's Richest Housing Markets Revealed
  • 4 States Dominate as the Riskiest Housing Markets in 2025
  • Housing Market Predictions: Home Prices to Drop by 0.9% in 2025
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends, Mid-Atlantic

NAR Chief’s Bold Predictions for the 2025 Housing Market

October 11, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Predictions 2025 by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

The real estate world is always buzzing with questions about what's around the corner, and when it comes to housing market predictions for 2025, we've got some insightful answers. According to NAR's Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, while things have felt a bit slow lately, we can expect a brighter picture for home sales next year, thanks to dipping mortgage rates and a healthier supply of homes.

It's a question on everyone's mind: what will 2025 hold for those looking to buy or sell a home? As someone who's spent years in this industry, watching trends and listening to the smartest minds, I'm always keen to see what the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has to say. Lawrence Yun's forecasts are always a big deal because he digs deep into the numbers and gives us a clear view of the road ahead.

NAR Chief's Bold Predictions for the 2025 Housing Market

The Current Scene: A Bit of a Stumble, But Not a Fall

Before we dive into 2025, let's quickly look at where we are now. As Yun points out, home sales have been “sluggish” for the past few years. This isn't a surprise to anyone who's been following the market. Two big culprits have been high mortgage rates – making monthly payments stretch much thinner – and a limited inventory of homes available for sale. It’s like trying to find a specific book in a library with very few shelves.

But here's the positive spin Yun offers, and it's a crucial one: mortgage rates are starting to come down, and more homes are appearing on the market. This combination is the recipe for a livelier housing market. Think of it as the library finally getting new shelves and a fresh shipment of books.

What Yun Sees for 2025: A Gentler Climb

So, what exactly does Lawrence Yun predict will happen in 2025? He's optimistic, but it's a grounded optimism.

  • Boosting Sales: The biggest takeaway is that the declining mortgage rates and increasing inventory are expected to significantly boost home sales throughout 2025. This means more people will be able to afford their dream homes, and more sellers will find ready buyers.

  • The Upper End Shines: Yun notes that record-high housing wealth and a booming stock market are giving current homeowners more power. This means those looking to trade up or buy more luxurious properties are in a good position. Their existing home equity and investments can help fund their next purchase. This segment of the market is likely to see a good amount of activity.

  • The Challenge of Affordability: However, there's a flip side to this coin. Yun also highlights that sales of affordable homes are being held back by the lack of inventory. Even with lower interest rates, if there aren't enough starter homes or well-priced options, buyers in this bracket will continue to face difficulties. This is a persistent issue that the market needs to address.

Where Are the Deals? The Midwest Advantage

When I look at market data, I always try to understand the why behind the trends. Yun’s observation about the Midwest is particularly telling. He points out that the Midwest was the best-performing region recently, and the reason is straightforward: relatively affordable market conditions.

To break this down further, the median home price in the Midwest is a solid 22 percent below the national median price. This affordability is a magnet for buyers who might be priced out of other, more expensive regions. When you combine this inherent affordability with the general market improvements Yun predicts for 2025, the Midwest could see even more interest.

Digging Deeper: The Latest Data and What It Means

To get a real feel for where we're headed, it's essential to look at current data. The NAR's Existing-Home Sales Report for August (released September 25, 2025) gives us some crucial clues.

Let's look at the snapshots provided:

August 2025: A Closer Look

Metric Month-over-Month Change Year-over-Year Change Key Figures
Existing-Home Sales -0.2% +1.8% Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million
Unsold Inventory -1.3% +11.7% 1.53 million units, representing a 4.6-month supply
Median Existing-Home Price N/A +2.0% $422,600

My Take: The month-over-month sales dip might seem concerning, but the year-over-year increase of 1.8% is a more significant indicator of underlying strength. More importantly, the inventory is up a substantial 11.7% compared to last year. This is great news for buyers, as more choices usually lead to less frantic bidding wars. The median price still climbing is a sign of continued demand, even with higher rates.

Single-Family Homes vs. Condos

  • Single-Family Homes: Saw a 0.3% decrease in sales month-over-month but a 2.5% increase year-over-year. The median price is up 1.9% to $427,800. This tells me the demand for traditional homes remains strong, and prices are still creeping up.
  • Condominiums and Co-ops: Sales were flat month-over-month, but down 5.1% year-over-year. The median price saw a modest 0.6% increase to $366,800. This might indicate that while condos are more affordable, the overall trend for them isn't as robust as single-family homes right now, potentially due to changing lifestyle preferences post-pandemic.

Regional Performance in August 2025

Here's how different parts of the country fared:

  • Northeast: Sales down 4.0% month-over-month and 2.0% year-over-year. Prices are up 6.2% to $534,200. This region is still expensive, and sales seem to be cooling off a bit.
  • Midwest: Sales up 2.1% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. Prices are up 4.5% to $330,500. This confirms Yun's point – affordability is driving sales here.
  • South: Sales down 1.1% month-over-month but up 3.4% year-over-year. Prices are up 0.4% to $364,100. A mixed bag, but the year-over-year growth is positive.
  • West: Sales up 1.4% month-over-month but down 1.4% year-over-year. Prices are up 0.6% to $624,300. The West remains the priciest region, and while some sales are picking up, overall activity is a bit slower year-over-year recently.

My Thoughts on Regions: The data strongly supports Yun's emphasis on the Midwest's affordability. Buyers looking for value are increasingly looking there. The West's high prices continue to be a barrier, even with slight sales upticks.

Other Important Indicators

  • Time on Market: Properties are taking a median of 31 days to sell, up from 28 days last month and 26 days last year. This is a clear sign that buyers have more negotiating power.
  • First-Time Homebuyers: 28% of sales were to first-time buyers, unchanged from July and up from 26% last year. This indicates that despite challenges, the market is still accessible for those entering homeownership.
  • Cash Sales & Investor Activity: 28% of transactions were cash sales, down from last month but up from last year. 21% were by individual investors, up slightly. This suggests that while individuals are still buying with cash, institutions might be pulling back slightly, and individual investors see opportunities.
  • Distressed Sales: 2% of sales were distressed properties (foreclosures, short sales), which is a very low number. This indicates a healthy market with minimal distress.

Mortgage Rates: The Key Player

And then there are the mortgage rates. In August, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.59%, down from 6.72% in July and only slightly higher than 6.50% a year ago. This downward trend is critical for the 2025 predictions. As rates continue to ease, more buyers will qualify for loans, and their purchasing power will increase.

My Personal Take on the 2025 Outlook

From where I stand, Lawrence Yun's Housing Market Predictions 2025 paint a picture of a market that’s healing and finding its balance. The days of sky-high appreciation might be behind us for a bit, and that’s actually a good thing for long-term stability.

I believe we’ll see a more normalized market in 2025.

  • Buyers: You’ll likely have more options and more time to make decisions. The pressure to offer above asking price on every single home will lessen, especially outside of the most competitive areas. Keep an eye on those declining mortgage rates – they are your biggest ally.
  • Sellers: While bidding wars might not be as common as they were a couple of years ago, well-priced and well-maintained homes will still sell. Your strategy will need to focus on presenting your home in the best possible light and being realistic about pricing based on current market conditions.
  • Affordability: This will continue to be a theme. Regions like the Midwest will likely see sustained interest. For those looking in hotter markets, creative financing or looking at the next tier of towns might be the way to go.
  • The “Trade-Up” Market: Yun's point about those with existing home equity is important. This segment will likely drive a good portion of sales, as people are looking to upgrade their living situations now that their financial footing is stronger.

The housing market is a complex beast, influenced by many factors. But based on the data and the expertise of someone like Lawrence Yun, 2025 looks like a year where more people will be able to achieve their homeownership goals. It's not a boom-and-bust prediction, but one of measured growth and a more accessible market for many.

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends

Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?

October 10, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?

The Florida sun, beautiful beaches, and promise of a relaxed lifestyle have long drawn people to Cape Coral. Homes were selling like hotcakes, and the city seemed destined for perpetual growth. But lately, a chill wind seems to be blowing through the Cape Coral real estate market. Could a crash be on the horizon, reminiscent of the devastating events of 2008? Let's delve into the data, dissect the trends, and see what 2025 might hold.

Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?

I remember vividly the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. As someone who's closely followed the real estate market for years, seeing families lose their homes and livelihoods was truly heartbreaking. Now, observing some similar patterns emerging in Cape Coral, I feel a sense of urgency to understand what's unfolding and share that knowledge.

A Deep Dive into Cape Coral's Real Estate Woes: Echoes of the Past?

To answer the question of whether Cape Coral is heading for a crash, we need to analyze the present and also glance in the rearview mirror. Are the ghosts of 2008 stirring? Let's see how things compare.

Cape Coral wasn’t just affected by the 2008 crisis; it was arguably ground zero for the housing bubble's burst. A confluence of factors created the perfect storm:

  • Speculative Mania: Everyone was a “real estate expert”, buying homes as investments, fueled by the dream of flipping them for a quick profit. Many were naive.
  • Subprime Lending Gone Wild: Banks handed out mortgages like candy without enough due diligence. Loans with adjustable rates and balloon payments were common, setting homeowners up for future shocks. People were offered money at every turn.
  • Lack of Regulation and Oversight: The system failed to protect homeowners and the wider economy from predatory lending practices.
  • Greed and Ignorance: Financial incentives drove reckless behavior at all levels, from mortgage brokers to Wall Street executives.

When the bubble finally burst, it sent shockwaves across the nation, and Cape Coral was among the hardest hit. Foreclosure rates skyrocketed, property values plummeted, and many families found themselves underwater on their mortgages. The scars of that crisis are still visible in some parts of the city.

Cape Coral's Housing Market in 2025: Déjà Vu?

Fast forward to today, and the trends in Cape Coral are raising some serious concerns. Here's a snapshot of the current situation:

  • Plummeting Home Prices: According to multiple reports I'm seeing, the situation is precarious. Redfin stated that in May of 2025, Cape Coral home prices were down 7.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $361,000. That is not a good thing for sellers.
  • Stagnant Sales: Buyers are hesitant. Redfin claims that there were 608 homes sold in May this year, down by 5.7% from 645 last year.
  • Shift to a Buyer's Market: The upper hand has swung from sellers to buyers, empowering buyers to snag better deals.
  • Surge in Time on Market: According to Redfin the normal transaction time has dramatically increased. Homes remain available for 76 days on average compared to 59 days from last year.
  • Bottom Ranked: I came across a rather concerning report from Fox 4 Now, the news outlet ranked Cape Coral last among 123 midsize cities in the U.S. in their July 2025 hotness ratings chart.

To summarize, here's a table breaking down the important numbers:

Key Metric Value (May 2025) Change from Previous Year Source
Median Home Price $361,000 Down 7.7% Redfin
Homes Sold 608 Down 5.7% Redfin
Days on Market 76 days Up from 59 days Redfin

Decoding the Signs: Why is Cape Coral Facing This Pressure?

So, what's driving this downturn? A complex interplay of forces is at work:

  • Falling Prices: A sustained decline in prices indicates a shift in the balance of supply and demand.
  • Elevated Mortgage Rates: With interest rates hovering around 6.94% for a 30-year fixed mortgage currently, prospective buyers are getting priced out of the market. No one likes higher interest rates.
  • Economic Cloudiness: Global uncertainties, inflation worries, and fears of a potential recession are making people cautious about big investments.
  • Excess Inventory: Both new constructions and existing homes hitting the market after Hurricane Ian have resulted in a glut of supply.
  • The Perils of Nature: Cape Coral’s vulnerability to hurricanes, floods, and rising sea levels increases insurance costs and could affect property resale values.

2008 vs. 2025: Parallels and Divergences

While some similarities exist between the current situation and the 2008 crisis, there are also important differences. The 2008 crisis was driven by subprime mortgages, speculative buying, and lax regulations, whereas now, high mortgage rates, economic uncertainty, and a supply glut are the primary drivers. Foreclosures are a risk, but the scale is way smaller than what we saw at the time.

Expert Insights and Predictions

What are the experts in the real estate world saying about Cape Coral?

  • Quotes are pouring in that are concerning. Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality warns of “housing market headwinds”“. She identified that Cape Coral’s -6.5% year-over-year price decline in April 2025 stands out against the national growth of 2.0%.
  • Realtors I have spoken to are advising that sellers be realistic.

What Buyers and Sellers in Cape Coral Should Be Doing Right Now

For the Savvy Buyer:

  • This might be a prime opportunity to negotiate a better deal.
  • Thoroughly investigate the property, including potential flood risks and insurance expenses.
  • Take your time, and consult a local real estate attorney.

For the Strategic Seller:

  • Adjust your price expectations to meet the market realities.
  • Consider working with a local real estate agent who understands local conditions.
  • Highlight what makes your property stands out.

The Bottom Line: Proceed with Informed Caution

Is Cape Coral guaranteed to crash? Not necessarily. However, there is a high chance of price decline. This is a time for informed caution and strategic decision-making. By understanding the market dynamics, seeking expert advice, and carefully assessing your risk tolerance, you can navigate the Cape Coral real estate landscape with greater confidence.

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Read More:

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Cape Coral, Florida, Housing Market, housing market crash, Housing Market Trends

Housing Market Update 2025: NAR Report Indicates Sluggish Trends

September 25, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Update 2025: NAR Report Indicates Sluggish Trends

If you're keeping an eye on the real estate world, you've likely noticed things have felt a bit… slow. And you're right. The latest data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) confirms that the housing market remains sluggish with a dip in home sales in August. While the change might seem small – just a 0.2% drop from July – it adds to a picture of a market that's still finding its footing. What does this mean for you, whether you're thinking about buying a home or selling the one you have? Let's dive in.

Housing Market Update 2025: NAR Report Indicates Sluggish Trends

These shifts, even small ones, are important signals. They often point to larger forces at play, like interest rates, the number of homes available, and how much people can afford. The fact that sales decreased slightly in August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million, tells us that the buying frenzy we saw not too long ago has definitely cooled.

A Closer Look at the Numbers: What Did August Show Us?

The NAR's Existing-Home Sales Report is like a regular health check for the housing market. It gives us a clear snapshot of where things stand. Here's a breakdown of what August revealed:

  • Month-over-Month: Sales dipped by a modest 0.2%. While not a huge plunge, it's enough to confirm the ongoing sluggishness.
  • Year-over-Year: Interestingly, when we compare August of this year to August of last year, we actually see an 1.8% increase in sales. This suggests some growth compared to the previous year, but that growth is happening from a slower baseline.
  • Inventory: The supply of homes for sale, often called inventory, also saw a bit of a dip, down 1.3% from July. However, this is still higher than last year, which is generally good news for buyers looking for more options. We're looking at about 1.53 million homes available.
  • Months' Supply: This measures how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new ones were listed. In August, it was 4.6 months. This is pretty stable compared to last month and up from 4.2 months last year. It's still not a huge buyer's market, but it’s not a severe seller’s market either.

Why the Slowdown? It's All About the Money and the Homes.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, hit the nail on the head. He pointed to two big reasons for this sluggishness: elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory. And honestly, that's been the story for a while now.

  • Mortgage Rates: When mortgage rates are high, the monthly payment for a home shoots up. This makes it harder for many people to afford the homes they want, or even to qualify for a loan. While rates have been inching down, they're still higher than many buyers remember from a few years back. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in August was 6.59%, down a bit from July (6.72%) but still a significant factor.
  • Inventory: Even with a slight dip in the number of homes for sale in August, the overall picture is still one where there simply aren't enough homes, especially affordable ones, to meet demand. Think about it: if there are fewer homes available, there's less competition for buyers, but also fewer opportunities for sellers.

Regional Differences: Not All Markets are Created Equal

What's happening in the housing market isn't uniform across the country. Some areas are feeling the slowdown more than others.

  • Northeast: This region saw a pretty noticeable 4.0% decrease in sales month-over-month. Prices here are also the highest, with a median of $534,200, up 6.2% year-over-year.
  • Midwest: Here's a bright spot! The Midwest saw a 2.1% increase in sales month-over-month. This is largely because homes in the Midwest are more affordable. The median price is a much lower $330,500, up 4.5% from last year. Yun highlighted this affordability as a key driver.
  • South: This region experienced a 1.1% decrease in sales. The median home price here is $364,100, showing a small increase of 0.4% year-over-year.
  • West: Sales in the West also saw a slight increase of 1.4% month-over-month. However, this region has by far the highest median home price at $624,300, up 0.6% from last year.

It's always important to remember that national statistics are just averages. Your local housing market could be behaving quite differently, so keeping an eye on your specific area is crucial.

Region Month-over-Month Sales Change Year-over-Year Sales Change Median Sales Price (August) Year-over-Year Price Change
Northeast -4.0% -2.0% $534,200 +6.2%
Midwest +2.1% +3.2% $330,500 +4.5%
South -1.1% +3.4% $364,100 +0.4%
West +1.4% -1.4% $624,300 +0.6%

What About Home Prices? They're Still Going Up (Mostly).

Despite the sluggish sales, home prices continue to show resilience. The median existing-home price for all housing types hit $422,600. That's a 2.0% increase from last year. This marks the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

This might sound confusing: why are prices still going up if sales are slow? It largely comes back to inventory. When the supply of homes is tight, even with fewer buyers, sellers can often hold firm on prices, and sometimes even see increases. However, the rate of price growth has certainly slowed compared to the booming market of a few years ago.

Who's Buying and Selling? A Look at the Buyers

The report also gives us insights into who's making moves in the market:

  • First-Time Homebuyers: They made up 28% of sales in August, which is unchanged from July but up from 26% in August 2024. This is an important demographic. As affordability continues to be a challenge, seeing a stable or slightly increasing share of first-time buyers is a positive sign for the future. It suggests that some of the market's demand is still being met, even if it's a struggle.
  • Cash Sales: 28% of transactions were cash sales. This figure decreased slightly from the previous month. Cash buyers often have an advantage as they don't rely on mortgage financing, which can be a hurdle for many.
  • Investors: Individual investors or second-home buyers accounted for 21% of transactions. This is slightly up from last month, indicating that investors are still active in the market, perhaps seeing opportunities.
  • Distressed Sales: These are sales of homes in foreclosure or short sales. They remain very low, at just 2%, showing that the market isn't flooded with drastically cheap, distressed properties.

My Take: What This Means for You

From my perspective, this data paints a picture of a market that's trying to find a new balance. It's not the red-hot seller's market of a few years ago, nor is it a buyer's dream market either.

  • For Buyers: This period of sluggishness could be a good time to explore your options. While prices are still high and interest rates are a concern, the slight increase in inventory and the slower pace of sales might give you a little more breathing room and negotiation power than you would have had recently. The Midwest region, in particular, stands out as a more affordable area to consider. However, you still need to be prepared financially, especially with those mortgage rates.
  • For Sellers: If you're thinking of selling, patience might be key. The market is still moving, but homes might be taking a bit longer to sell – 31 days on average in August, up from 28 days last month. Pricing your home correctly from the start is more important than ever. While you might not get multiple offers within hours, a well-maintained and well-priced home will still attract buyers.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch For

The future of the housing market hinges on a few key factors:

  • Mortgage Rates: This is the big one. If rates continue to fall, we'll likely see a significant boost in buyer activity.
  • Inventory Growth: More homes hitting the market, especially in starter and mid-range price points, would really help to ease some of the affordability pressures.
  • Economic Stability: A strong economy generally supports a healthy housing market. Continued job growth and wage increases can help more people afford homes.

The NAR's Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, is optimistic that declining mortgage rates and increasing inventory will boost sales in the coming months. He also noted that while the upper end of the market might benefit from homeowners' increased wealth, the lack of affordable inventory will continue to constrain sales at the lower end.

The housing market is a complex beast, always influenced by a multitude of economic and social factors. While August showed us a market that's still taking its time, it's also a market that shows signs of potential improvement as interest rates ease and more homes come online. Keep an eye on these trends; they'll tell us more about where the market is headed next.

Invest in Real Estate in the Top U.S. Markets

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact Norada today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale

September 15, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

7 Big Cities Have Shifted to a Buyer’s Housing Market in 2025

This news likely brings a smile to the faces of many house hunters: seven major cities have officially transitioned into buyer-friendly housing markets in 2025, a significant shift that gives ordinary folks more power when it comes to purchasing a home. If you're looking to buy, this means you might finally have the upper hand after a long period where sellers called all the shots.

For years, we've been talking about how tough it is to buy a house. Prices were through the roof, bidding wars were common, and you had to act lightning fast. But something has changed. The latest data from Realtor.com shows that the national housing market is finally finding a more balanced footing, with a five-month supply of homes for sale. This is the first summer in nine years that the market has hit this level of equilibrium.

7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale

Understanding the “Months of Supply”

To really get why this news is important, we need to understand what “months of supply” means. Think of it like this: it's how long it would take to sell every single house currently listed on the market if no new homes were added and sales continued at the same speed.

  • Less than 4 months of supply: This is a seller's market. Sellers are in the driver's seat. Homes sell quickly, often with multiple offers, and prices tend to go up.
  • 4 to 6 months of supply: This is a balanced market. Both buyers and sellers have a decent amount of say. It’s not a free-for-all, but there are opportunities for negotiation from both sides.
  • More than 6 months of supply: This is a buyer's market. Buyers have more choices, more time to make decisions, and a better chance of negotiating prices and terms.

The fact that the national supply has reached five months means we're officially heading into a more neutral zone. But as is often the case with real estate, the big picture doesn't tell the whole story. When we zoom in on specific cities, a much more interesting and complex picture emerges.

Where Buyers Are Winning: The Top Buyer's Markets

While the national trend is encouraging, seven big cities are now firmly in buyer's market territory, meaning they have at least six months of supply. This is where house hunters have the most leverage, though no two markets are exactly alike.

Let's take a closer look at the cities leading this shift:

1. Miami, Florida: Nearly 10 Months of Supply

Miami takes the crown as the city with the highest months of supply among the top 50 metros, boasting nearly 10 months. This means it would take close to ten months to sell everything currently listed at the current sales pace.

Back in June, when this data was collected, the median list price was around $510,000, which was actually down 4.7% from the previous year. And the number of homes available for sale had a big jump of 35% compared to the year before. Homes were also taking longer to sell, with typical listings sitting on the market 15 days longer than the year prior. By August, this trend continued, with median prices dipping slightly and homes taking even longer to find a buyer.

Now, I've been watching the Miami market for a while, and it's always been a bit of a beast. Even with these buyer-friendly numbers, it’s important to understand what’s really going on. You see, some folks, like local real estate agent Ana Bozovic, argue that calling Miami a blanket “buyer's market” isn't the whole truth. She points out that while certain types of homes, like older condos under $500,000, might offer buyers more room to negotiate, other segments are still quite hot.

For instance, she says that single-family homes under $500,000 are almost “extinct” in Miami. So, if you're looking for one of those, you won't have much negotiating power. However, in the sub-$500,000 condo market, buyers might find more opportunities, partly because of new rules that require higher reserves for condos. This really highlights my own experience: real estate is never one-size-fits-all. You've got to know the nitty-gritty of the specific neighborhood and the type of property you're interested in.

2. Austin, Texas: Close to 8 Months of Supply

Austin, a city that experienced incredible growth during the pandemic, is now the second-biggest buyer's market. In June, it had 7.7 months of supply. This means the frenzy has cooled down, and there are significantly more homes on the market than buyers eager to snatch them up at any price.

In Austin, nearly 33% of all listed homes had price cuts in June, with the median listing price dropping by 4.5% to about $524,950. That's a huge number, meaning roughly one out of every three homes for sale came with a discount. The number of available homes also saw a massive increase, nearly 70% higher than pre-pandemic levels. By August, the typical price was just under $500,000, and that high percentage of price reductions continued.

Austin is relatively new to this buyer's market status, only crossing that six-month supply mark in June. This rapid shift is a clear indicator of how quickly market dynamics can change.

3. Orlando, Florida: 6.9 Months of Supply

Another major city in Florida, Orlando, also found itself in buyer's market territory with 6.9 months of supply in June. This aligns with the cooling trends seen in the housing market of the city famous for its theme parks.

In June, the median listing price in Orlando was $429,473, down 3.4% from the previous year. The inventory of homes for sale rose by nearly 34% year-over-year, while the pace of sales slowed. By August, prices dipped even further to $422,694, and homes were staying on the market, on average, 14 days longer. Orlando has been in a buyer's market since January, which shows a sustained shift rather than a temporary blip.

As Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel correctly points out, markets like Miami, Austin, and Orlando have been moving towards buyer-friendly conditions for a while. He notes that the rise in inventory, longer times on market, and increased price reductions are clearly visible in these areas, as well as in much of the South and West of the country. He anticipates these trends might continue, making the upcoming fall season a good time for buyers who are patient and have their finances in order.

Four More Cities Joining the Buyer's Market Club

Beyond these top three, four other major cities are also experiencing conditions that favor buyers:

  • New York City, New York: 6.7 months of supply. This might surprise some folks, considering New York's reputation for high prices and a historically tight market. However, Krimmel points out that there are signs of softness beneath the surface. Unlike other parts of the Northeast, New York hasn't seen price surges, and the price per square foot has actually decreased year-over-year recently.
  • Jacksonville, Florida: 6.3 months of supply.
  • Tampa, Florida: 6.3 months of supply.
  • Riverside, California: 6.1 months of supply.

The inclusion of New York City in this list is particularly interesting. It shows that even in traditionally strong seller's markets, economic shifts and changing buyer behavior can create opportunities.

Why Are Sellers Listing and Then Delisting?

This shift to buyer's markets isn't just about more homes being available; it's also about what sellers are doing—or not doing—with their properties. The national housing market saw something of a standstill this summer. With affordability still a concern and mortgage rates remaining elevated, many buyers are hesitant.

This has led to a couple of key behaviors from sellers:

  • Price Reductions: Over a quarter of homes for sale across the U.S. had a price cut in August. This is up slightly from the previous year, with buyers in the South and West most likely to find discounted properties.
  • Delistings: Frustrated by the lack of buyer interest at their asking prices, some sellers are simply taking their homes off the market. Instead of lowering prices, they're choosing to wait for conditions to improve. In July, the number of delisted homes nationwide jumped a significant 57% compared to the year before. Cities like Miami, Phoenix, Riverside, and Tucson saw the most homes being pulled from the market.

This delisting trend is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reduces the overall supply, which could eventually put upward pressure on prices. However, for now, it signals that sellers are either unwilling or unable to drop their prices to match current market realities, leading to a stalemate that buyers can often exploit for better deals.

Expert Opinions and My Take

As someone who has followed the housing market for years, I've seen my fair share of cycles. What I'm observing now is a necessary course correction. The post-pandemic boom was driven by a unique set of circumstances – ultra-low interest rates and a surge in demand as people looked for more space. Now, we're seeing a return to more sustainable market conditions.

The data from Realtor.com is crucial because it uses actual sales figures and inventory levels. It’s not just speculation; it’s based on what’s happening on the ground. This shift to buyer's markets in these seven cities is a tangible sign that buyers have more breathing room.

My own experience tells me that when inventory rises and homes sit longer, buyers gain significant negotiation power. They can often ask for concessions, negotiate on price, and avoid the stressful bidding wars that have characterized the market recently. However, as the Miami example shows, informed buyers are the ones who will win. Understanding the nuances of specific neighborhoods and property types is key. Just because a city is labeled a buyer's market doesn't mean every single home is a bargain.

The rise in delistings is also a strong indicator of seller sentiment. When sellers start delisting rather than discounting, it shows how much they are anchoring to previous sale prices or their own perceived value, which may no longer align with what buyers are willing or able to pay. This can, paradoxically, create more opportunities for those buyers who are still actively searching, as they might encounter less competition in the immediate term.

For aspiring homeowners, this is a moment to be strategic. Do your homework on the specific metro areas that interest you. Look at the inventory levels, the typical time on market, and recent price trends. Don't be afraid to negotiate. The days of accepting asking price without question might be fading, at least in these seven cities.

We're moving towards a more balanced housing market overall, but these seven cities are leading the charge toward buyer-friendliness. It's a great time to be a buyer, provided you’re prepared and informed. The market is signaling a change, and those who pay attention will be best positioned to take advantage of it.

Invest in Real Estate in the Top U.S. Markets

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Contact Norada today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

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Also Read:

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  • Housing Market Predictions: Home Prices to Drop by 0.9% in 2025
  • Housing Market Predictions 2025 by Norada Real Estate
  • Housing Market Predictions 2025 by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
  • Will the Housing Market Crash in 2025: What Experts Predict?
  • Housing Market Predictions 2026: Will it Crash or Boom?
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2029
  • Real Estate Forecast: Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2025?
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

The $1 Trillion Club: America’s Richest Housing Markets Revealed

September 8, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

The $1 Trillion Club: America's Richest Housing Markets Revealed

Imagine a world where the value of homes in just a few cities adds up to more money than many small countries possess. Well, that world is ours, and it’s a reality right now in the United States. In fact, nine metro areas across the U.S. now boast housing markets each worth more than $1 trillion, collectively holding a significant portion of the nation's total housing wealth. This incredible concentration of wealth highlights not just the soaring costs of homes in these desirable locations but also the shifting dynamics of the entire American housing market.

According to a new Zillow® analysis, the housing market in the United States has reached an astonishing record high of $55.1 trillion, a monumental jump of $20 trillion since early 2020. While the overall growth has slowed a bit in the past year, gaining a still impressive $862 billion, these nine “trillion-dollar clubs” are at the heart of understanding where real estate money truly sits.

The Grand Overview: A Shifting Housing Landscape

For many of us, our home is the biggest investment we'll ever make. So, when home values go up or down, it directly affects our financial well-being and, by extension, the broader economy. What's truly interesting to see is how the map of housing wealth is redrawing itself. Places that were booming during the pandemic, often called “boomtowns” in the Sun Belt, are now cooling off. Meanwhile, new areas, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, are seeing a resurgence in housing value.

Consider this: since early 2020, states like California ($3.4 trillion), Florida ($1.6 trillion), New York ($1.5 trillion), and Texas ($1.2 trillion) saw the biggest total gains in housing value. But when we look at the last year (July 2024–June 2025), things changed. Florida's housing market actually lost $109 billion, and California's dropped by $106 billion. Texas also saw a decrease of $32 billion. It's a clear signal that the housing market isn't a one-size-fits-all story; different regions are experiencing very different trends.

So, where did the gains go? Look to the Northeast. New York added a massive $216 billion in value over the last year, grabbing a quarter of the national growth. Its neighbor, New Jersey, wasn't far behind with $101 billion in gains, followed by Illinois ($89 billion) and Pennsylvania ($73 billion). This shift suggests that the factors driving growth are changing, perhaps moving away from pure affordability and more towards established economic hubs.

The $1 Trillion Club: America's Richest Housing Markets Revealed

It’s truly remarkable to think that several individual metro areas hold housing wealth comparable to or even exceeding the entire gross domestic product of some nations. These aren't just big cities; they are economic powerhouses, attracting businesses, talent, and, consequently, significant housing investment.

Here are the nine metro areas that have broken into the exclusive $1 trillion housing wealth club:

  • New York, NY: $4.6 trillion
  • Los Angeles, CA: $3.9 trillion
  • San Francisco, CA: $1.9 trillion
  • Boston, MA: $1.3 trillion
  • Washington, D.C.: $1.3 trillion
  • Miami, FL: $1.2 trillion
  • Chicago, IL: $1.2 trillion
  • Seattle, WA: $1.1 trillion
  • San Diego, CA: $1 trillion

Together, these nine metro areas represent almost one-third (31.9%) of all U.S. housing wealth. That’s a staggering concentration of value in relatively few places.

Let's dive a little deeper into each of these titans of real estate, understanding their recent performance and what makes them such valuable markets.

New York, NY: The Unstoppable Giant

  • Total Market Value: $4,624 billion (or $4.6 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): $260 billion

New York isn't just in the club; it leads the club by a very wide margin. With a market value exceeding $4.6 trillion, it's roughly 20% wealthier in terms of housing than the second-place city, Los Angeles. More impressively, while many other areas saw declines, New York gained an astounding $260 billion in housing value in the last year alone. This surge highlights its enduring appeal as a global financial and cultural center. Despite high costs, demand remains incredibly strong, perhaps bolstered by a return to office trends or simply its unmatched economic gravitational pull.

Los Angeles, CA: The West Coast Behemoth

  • Total Market Value: $3,864 billion (or $3.9 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): -$15 billion

Los Angeles stands as the second-largest housing market in the U.S. Its vast metro area and diverse economy, spanning entertainment, technology, and trade, contribute to its immense real estate value. However, unlike New York, Los Angeles experienced a slight dip of $15 billion in the past year. This isn't a massive drop, but it does signal a cooling off after years of significant gains, likely due to affordability challenges and high interest rates affecting buyer demand in an already expensive market.

San Francisco, CA: Tech Capital's Housing Power

  • Total Market Value: $1,850 billion (or $1.9 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): -$52 billion

San Francisco, the heart of the tech world, has long been synonymous with sky-high home prices. Its nearly $1.9 trillion housing market reflects years of explosive growth driven by innovation and high-paying jobs. Yet, it recorded a notable decline of $52 billion in the last year. This could be due to a combination of factors, including the impact of remote work on office demand, some tech industry layoffs, and its already exorbitant cost of living pushing some residents to more affordable areas.

Boston, MA: Historic Charm, Modern Wealth

  • Total Market Value: $1,322 billion (or $1.3 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): -$3 billion

Boston, a hub for education, healthcare, and biotech, holds a housing market valued at over $1.3 trillion. Its rich history and strong job market have always made it a desirable place to live. While it saw a minimal decline of $3 billion in the past year, it’s relatively stable compared to some West Coast counterparts. Boston's market appears to be benefiting from the general shift towards the Northeast, even if still facing its own affordability hurdles.

Washington, D.C.: The Nation's Capital

  • Total Market Value: $1,296 billion (or $1.3 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): $24 billion$

Our nation's capital, with its stable government-related jobs and a growing tech sector, boasts a housing market just shy of $1.3 trillion. Unlike many of the other trillion-dollar cities, D.C. actually saw a respectable gain of $24 billion over the last year. This growth points to continued demand and a relatively resilient economy that isn't as prone to the boom-and-bust cycles seen in some more speculative markets.

Miami, FL: Sunshine and Shifting Sands

  • Total Market Value: $1,233 billion (or $1.2 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): -$25 billion

Miami experienced a massive boom during the pandemic, attracting new residents and businesses. Its housing market soared to over $1.2 trillion. However, the latest data shows a decline of $25 billion. This aligns with the broader trend of Florida's market cooling, possibly due to a combination of factors including rising insurance costs, increased cost of living, and an equilibrium being reached after its rapid expansion.

Chicago, IL: The Midwestern Powerhouse

  • Total Market Value: $1,219 billion (or $1.2 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): $62 billion

Often overlooked in the housing market narrative, Chicago surprises many by not only being a $1.2 trillion market but also by experiencing a healthy gain of $62 billion in the last year. This strong performance, along with other Midwestern and Northeastern cities, suggests a renewed interest in more established and perhaps comparatively more affordable major metropolitan areas, especially as remote work flexibility plays a role.

Seattle, WA: Another Tech Hub's Test

  • Total Market Value: $1,113 billion (or $1.1 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): $13 billion

Seattle, home to tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft, commands a housing market exceeding $1.1 trillion. While it saw a modest gain of $13 billion over the past year, it's a far cry from the massive increases it experienced previously. Like its West Coast neighbors, Seattle faces affordability challenges and a reassessment of housing needs in a post-pandemic world.

San Diego, CA: The Southern California Jewel

  • Total Market Value: $1,031 billion (or $1 trillion)
  • Growth (July 2024–June 2025): -$22 billion

Rounding out the list is San Diego, just over the $1 trillion mark. Its beautiful coastal setting, strong military presence, and growing biotech industry have fueled its housing values for years. However, it also saw a decline of $22 billion in the last year, reflecting similar pressures to Los Angeles and San Francisco, including high prices and changing economic tides.

The Role of New Construction: Building Wealth and Affordability

It’s easy to focus on just existing home values, but new construction plays a massive role in shaping the overall housing market and building wealth. Since early 2020, new construction added an astounding $2.5 trillion in housing value to the U.S. total. That’s roughly 12.5% of the entire national gain.

Think about it: every new home built creates new wealth. It provides places for families to live, jobs for construction workers, and stimulates local economies. States like Utah (23%), Texas (22%), Idaho (22%), and Florida (20%) saw a significant chunk of their housing market gains come directly from new construction. These were the states that saw huge demand during the pandemic, and building new homes helped them absorb some of that demand.

The takeaway here for affordability is crucial. States that have been most active in building new homes, especially in the Sun Belt like Texas and Florida, are now seeing some improvements in affordability. It’s a basic supply-and-demand concept: more homes mean more options, which can help ease price increases. If we truly want to tackle the affordability crisis, building more homes across the board is a non-negotiable step.

Why the Shift? My Thoughts on What's Happening

From my perspective, watching these market shifts unfold, a few key things stand out.

First, the pandemic-driven scramble for space and perceived affordability led to an explosion in values in certain Sun Belt and Mountain West regions. People were working remotely, chasing lower taxes, and bigger backyards. Now, that initial boom is settling. The “affordability edge” of places like Florida and Texas has started to erode, not just because prices went up so much, but also due to other increasing costs like home insurance and property taxes.

Second, remote work isn’t a one-way street. While it opened up opportunities for some to move, many companies are now encouraging or even requiring a return to the office. This naturally favors established economic hubs like New York, Chicago, and Washington D.C., which have dense job markets and robust infrastructure. The renewed vigor in these areas makes a lot of sense when you consider this dynamic.

Third, the cost of borrowing money – interest rates – has a huge impact. When rates are high, fewer people can afford to buy, which can slow down price growth, especially in already expensive markets. This likely contributed to the slight declines seen in some of the trillion-dollar cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, where prices were already at their peak.

Finally, the long-term appeal of stability and diverse economies seems to be shining through. Cities like New York and Chicago, with their deep-rooted industries beyond just tech, can weather economic fluctuations a bit better. Their housing markets might not always see the wildest swings up, but they often demonstrate a foundational resilience that pays off over time, making them attractive for long-term real estate investment.

What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers

If you're a homeowner in one of these trillion-dollar markets, especially one that saw a recent gain like New York or Chicago, you've likely seen your equity continue to grow. This is fantastic for your personal wealth. However, it also means that property taxes might be increasing, and the cost of living continues to be a factor.

For aspiring buyers, especially first-time buyers, these high-value markets remain incredibly challenging. Even with small dips in some areas, the entry barrier is substantial. This is where the emphasis on new construction becomes so vital. The more new homes built, the more pressure that puts on prices, which could eventually lead to more attainable housing options.

It's also important to remember that national trends don't tell the whole story. As we’ve seen, a state like Florida can lose significant value overall, but specific cities within it might still be strong, and vice-versa. Always look at the local data, not just the big picture.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Housing Wealth

The fact that nine metro areas hold such immense housing wealth is a testament to their economic pulling power. However, the recent data suggests a shift away from their total dominance in terms of growth. Excluding New York's incredible surge, the other eight $1 trillion markets combined lost $18 billion in housing value in the past year. This strongly suggests that growth is coming from other, often smaller, markets, where affordability might be relatively better, and remote work continues to play a role in redistribution.

This diffusion of housing wealth could be a positive sign in the long run. If more areas become attractive places to live and work, it could help alleviate some of the pressure on the most expensive cities and contribute to a more balanced national housing market. However, the underlying issue of housing supply, especially affordable housing, remains a critical challenge that needs consistent focus from policymakers and developers alike.

The American housing market is a dynamic and ever-evolving giant. While the headlines often focus on national averages, the true story is in the nuances of specific markets. These nine trillion-dollar metro areas are not just places where people live; they are monumental generators of wealth, reflecting decades of economic development, population growth, and investment. Keeping an eye on their trends gives us a powerful lens through which to understand the health and direction of the entire U.S. economy.

Invest in Real Estate in the Top U.S. Markets

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact Norada today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

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Also Read:

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for Another Crash Like 2008?

September 1, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for Another Crash Like 2008?

Is Florida's housing market headed for another crash akin to 2008? According to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure, the answer is potentially yes. A combination of dwindling migration, an oversupply of homes, and sky-high prices are creating a perfect storm that could trigger a significant and prolonged downturn in the Sunshine State's housing sector.

Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for Another Crash Like 2008?

The Ghost of 2008: Are We Seeing a Repeat?

The 2008 housing crisis is a scar on the American economy. We all remember the stories: rampant speculation, easy credit, and ultimately, a massive collapse that sent shockwaves through the world. So, when someone suggests we might be heading down that road again, it's only natural to feel a sense of unease.

And frankly, as someone who's been following the real estate market for years, I share that concern. While there are some key differences between then and now, the warning signs in Florida are definitely flashing.

The Pandemic Boom and the Subsequent Bust

The pandemic created an artificial surge in Florida's housing market. People fled densely populated cities in search of more space, sunshine, and a perceived lower cost of living (at least initially). This influx of new residents fueled a frenzy of construction, with developers rushing to meet the seemingly insatiable demand.

However, as Gerli points out, that trend has reversed. The massive wave of migration has slowed to a trickle, dropping by a staggering 80% from its peak. Suddenly, the market is flooded with homes, but the buyers are gone.

Here’s a breakdown of the key factors contributing to the potential downturn:

  • Decreased Migration: The pandemic-fueled influx has subsided, leaving a void in demand.
  • Oversupply of Homes: Construction boomed during the pandemic, creating an excess of available properties.
  • Affordability Crisis: Prices remain stubbornly high, pricing out local buyers.
  • High Housing Costs: 39% of income goes towards house payments.

The Numbers Don't Lie: A Deep Dive into the Data

Gerli highlights some truly alarming statistics. Florida currently has a record 177,000 homes for sale, while the entire Northeast U.S. has only 79,000 listings. That stark contrast paints a clear picture of the oversupply issue in Florida.

Moreover, the affordability crisis is reaching a critical point. According to Reventure's estimates, Floridians now need to spend a whopping 39% of their income on mortgage and tax costs – a level not seen since the 2006-07 bubble. That kind of financial strain is unsustainable and leaves homeowners vulnerable to economic shocks.

Furthermore, while home prices are rising in many parts of the country, they've already started to decline in Florida, dropping by 2.4% in the past year. Reventure predicts a further 5% drop in the coming year. This suggests that the market is already correcting, and the correction could accelerate if the underlying issues aren't addressed.

I don't think people understand what's happening in housing market right now.

Florida now has 177,00 listings. Highest level on record.

Entire Northeast U.S. has 79,000 listings. Lowest level on record.

People are leaving Florida. And moving back north. A structural trend that… pic.twitter.com/NYAJ9jN0Hp

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 1, 2025

Why Migration Matters: It's Not Just About the Weather

Gerli correctly identifies the decline in inbound migration as the most critical factor driving the potential downturn. While things like HOA fees, hurricane risk, and insurance costs certainly play a role, they're not the primary drivers.

Migration is the lifeblood of Florida's housing market. It fuels demand, supports construction, and drives economic growth. Without a steady stream of new residents, the market simply can't sustain itself, especially with the current oversupply of homes.

I think Gerli is on the right track, and his main point is that blaming insurance and other expenses is not the entire picture.

The Human Cost: Who Will Be Affected?

A housing market downturn in Florida would have far-reaching consequences, affecting homeowners, developers, and the broader economy.

  • Homeowners: Those who bought at the peak of the market could find themselves underwater on their mortgages, owing more than their homes are worth. This can lead to foreclosures and financial hardship.
  • Developers: Builders who have invested heavily in new construction could face significant losses as demand dries up and prices fall.
  • The Economy: A housing market crash could trigger a recession, leading to job losses and decreased consumer spending.

Is There a Way Out? A Glimmer of Hope

Gerli believes that the only way to counteract these trends is through “significantly cheaper prices” that could entice more people to move back to Florida. A significant drop in price may reignite the market.

While that may seem like a drastic measure, it's a necessary correction. The market needs to find a new equilibrium where prices are more aligned with local incomes and the overall economic reality.

Here is a summary of ways out:

  • Significant Price Reduction: Lower prices could attract new buyers and stimulate demand.
  • Incentives for Relocation: State or local initiatives could encourage migration.
  • Economic Diversification: Creating new industries and job opportunities could attract a wider range of residents.

My Take: A Time for Caution and Prudent Planning

I wouldn't start panic selling. However, I believe that Florida homeowners should be aware of the risks and take steps to protect themselves. If you're considering buying a home in Florida, proceed with caution and do your research. Don't get caught up in the hype, and be sure to factor in all the potential costs, including insurance, taxes, and HOA fees.

What Can We Learn From 2008?

The 2008 crisis taught us some hard lessons about the dangers of speculation, overleveraging, and unsustainable growth. Hopefully, policymakers, developers, and individuals will heed those lessons and take steps to prevent a repeat of the past.

While Florida's housing market faces significant challenges, it's important to remember that the situation is not necessarily hopeless. By understanding the risks, taking proactive steps, and working together, we can navigate these turbulent times and build a more sustainable housing market for the future.

This is a long game, and a slow bleed is better than a quick hemorrhage.

“Invest in Real Estate in Top Florida Markets”

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Florida, Housing Market, Housing Market 2025, housing market crash, Housing Market Trends

24 Florida Housing Markets Could See Home Prices Drop by Mid 2026

August 27, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

24 Florida Housing Markets Could See Home Prices Drop by Mid 2026

According to recent data and forecasts, around 24 Florida housing markets may experience a drop in home prices by mid-2026. This isn't a cause for widespread panic, but it does signal a shift from the red-hot market we've seen in recent years towards a more balanced, and in some areas, a slightly cooler environment.

As someone who's been following Florida real estate for a while, this kind of adjustment is actually healthy for the long-term stability of the market. It means we're moving away from unsustainable price growth and towards a reality where affordability might become a bit more attainable for more people.

24 Florida Housing Markets Could See Home Prices Drop by Mid-2026

First, let's clear the air: “price drop” doesn't necessarily mean a crash. It means moderation, a cooling off after a period of intense appreciation. Think of it less as a nosedive and more as a gentle descent back to earth after a rocket launch. The data from Florida Realtors® for June and the second quarter of 2025 actually shows some interesting trends that support this, even as we look ahead to potential price moderation.

What's happening on the ground? In June, Florida saw its first year-over-year gain in closed single-family home sales since January, with a 2.8% increase. That's a positive sign, indicating more activity. However, when you dig into the second quarter numbers, sales were down 2.6%. It's a mixed bag, but the overall story is one of transition.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, the Chief Economist at Florida Realtors®, pointed out that this June rebound helped soften what would have been a tougher second quarter. For condos and townhouses, sales were down 6.4% in June, which, while still a decline, was significantly less severe than the 20% drop seen in May. This suggests that while the market is cooling, it's not collapsing.

The median sales price for single-family homes in June was $412,000, down 3.5% from June 2024. Condo prices saw a sharper drop of 7.7%, with the median price at $300,000. This is crucial information: prices are moderating. For the second quarter, the single-family median price was $414,900 (down 3.1%), and the condo median was $310,000 (down 6.1%). This moderation is a key indicator of the market shifting from a seller's advantage to a more balanced playing field.

What's Driving the Shift in Florida's Housing Market?

Several factors are contributing to this evolving market. One major player is inventory. Dr. O’Connor noted that active listings for single-family homes were down 2.7% in June compared to the previous year. This follows a period of growth in new listings earlier in the year. For condos and townhouses, new listings were down even more, 7.5% year-over-year in June.

What does this mean? While the number of homes for sale might be slightly down compared to last year, the months' supply is still healthy. We're looking at 5.6 months' supply for single-family homes and a robust 10 months' supply for condos and townhouses. A “months' supply” tells us how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market at the current sales pace. Anything over 4-6 months is generally considered a balanced market, and 10 months definitely favors buyers. This increased supply gives buyers more choices and more negotiating power, which naturally puts downward pressure on prices that were previously being bid up aggressively.

Another significant factor is interest rates. While not explicitly detailed in the provided data, we all know that higher mortgage rates make buying a home more expensive, even if the list price hasn't changed. For many potential buyers, this increased cost can price them out of the market or force them to look for more affordable options, thus slowing down demand and eventually impacting prices.

Tim Weisheyer, the 2025 Florida Realtors® President, hit the nail on the head when he said the market is “transitioning toward balance.” He also highlighted that “motivated sellers who understand today’s market dynamics are attracting qualified buyers.” This is the human element of the market. Sellers who overprice their homes or are unwilling to negotiate are going to be left waiting. Those who are realistic about current conditions and are working with skilled Realtors® are the ones who are seeing success.

Spotlight on the 24: Which Florida Markets Could See Price Declines?

Now, let's get to the specifics. Zillow's data offers a projection of potential price changes in various Florida metropolitan areas (MSAs) through mid-2026. It's important to remember that these are forecasts, not guarantees, and they are based on sophisticated modeling. However, they do give us a strong indication of where more significant price moderation might occur.

The table below outlines some of these markets, showing the projected percentage change in home prices from June 2025 through July 2025, September 2025, and finally, June 2026.

Florida Market Projected Price Change (July 2025) Projected Price Change (Sept 2025) Projected Price Change (June 2026)
Punta Gorda, FL -1.4% -3.3% -4.0%
North Port, FL -1.1% -3.2% -3.2%
Cape Coral, FL -1.2% -2.9% -2.9%
Crestview, FL -0.7% -2.0% -2.6%
The Villages, FL -0.4% -1.3% -2.4%
Tallahassee, FL -0.4% -1.4% -2.1%
Panama City, FL -0.6% -2.0% -2.1%
Deltona, FL -0.7% -1.9% -1.9%
Gainesville, FL -0.5% -1.7% -1.8%
Jacksonville, FL -0.6% -1.7% -1.7%
Palm Bay, FL -0.6% -1.7% -1.6%
Sebastian, FL -0.8% -1.9% -1.6%
Tampa, FL -0.7% -2.0% -1.5%
Orlando, FL -0.7% -1.8% -1.5%
Lakeland, FL -0.6% -1.6% -1.3%
Pensacola, FL -0.4% -1.3% -1.3%
Palatka, FL -0.3% -1.4% -1.3%
Naples, FL -0.9% -2.4% -1.2%
Homosassa Springs, FL -0.7% -1.9% -0.9%
Miami, FL -0.7% -1.8% -0.7%
Port St. Lucie, FL -0.7% -1.7% -0.7%
Arcadia, FL -0.5% -1.6% -0.7%
Key West, FL -0.7% -1.7% -0.5%
Ocala, FL -0.5% -1.3% -0.2%

Looking at this table, you can see that markets like Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral are projected to see the most significant price moderation by mid-2026, with percentages in the negative territory. These are areas that, like much of Florida, experienced substantial price growth over the past few years. As the market normalizes, it's natural that some of the more rapid appreciation will be reined in.

Why These Specific Markets? Insights and Nuances

It's not a coincidence that many of the markets showing potential price moderation are in Southwest Florida and along the Gulf Coast. These regions, including Punta Gorda, North Port, Venice (part of the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA), Fort Myers, and Cape Coral, saw some of the most dramatic price increases during the boom years. This was fueled by a combination of factors, including robust demand from out-of-state buyers, limited inventory, and relatively lower price points compared to some other popular coastal areas which made them attractive.

As the market cools, these areas are likely to experience a more pronounced correction because the feverish demand that drove prices sky-high may also be the first to temper. When inventory levels rise, as they have been, and demand softens slightly due to economic conditions and higher interest rates, prices can begin to adjust downwards.

The Villages, known for its unique demographic and active adult community, also appears on this list. While it has its own distinct market dynamics, it's not immune to broader economic trends. The projected slight dip here might reflect a normalization of demand after a period of intense interest.

Other areas like Crestview, Tallahassee, and Panama City in the Panhandle are also showing projected declines. These markets might be more sensitive to shifts in local economic drivers, perhaps related to military presence or specific industry employment.

Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando – the major metropolitan hubs – are also included, though with more modest projected declines. These are larger, more diverse economies, which can sometimes buffer the impact of market shifts compared to smaller, more specialized areas. However, even in these larger markets, the overall trend of softening prices is evident in the data.

I’ve lived and worked in various parts of Florida, and in my experience, these markets often lead the way in price adjustments, both up and down. When growth was rapid, these were the places seeing the biggest jumps. Now, as things settle, they are showing the most significant moderation.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For buyers, this is potentially good news. If you've been priced out of the market or struggling to compete, softer prices and increased inventory could mean more opportunities to find a home that fits your budget. It might be the time to be patient, get pre-approved for a mortgage, and work with a local expert to understand the nuances of specific neighborhoods. Don't rush into a purchase, but be ready to act when the right opportunity arises. This period of moderation can help you avoid overpaying, which is a smart long-term strategy.

For sellers, it means adjusting expectations. The days of multiple offers significantly over asking price might be fewer and farther between. It's crucial to price your home accurately based on current market conditions and be prepared to negotiate. Working with a Realtor® who has their finger on the pulse of your local market is more important than ever. They can help you stage your home effectively, market it strategically, and guide you through negotiations to ensure the best possible outcome.

The Bigger Picture: A Healthy Market Adjustment?

From my perspective, this isn't a sign of impending doom for Florida real estate. Instead, it looks like a natural correction after an unsustainable period of growth. The rapid price increases we saw were driven by a confluence of factors: low interest rates, a surge in demand from people relocating, and a lack of available housing. As interest rates have climbed and inventory has started to improve (even with some recent dips in new listings), the market is recalibrating.

The fact that closed sales are starting to tick up is encouraging. It suggests that demand hasn't disappeared; it's just becoming more selective and price-sensitive. A market with steady demand and more balanced prices is often healthier and more sustainable in the long run than one that experiences wild, unpredictable swings.

The expert consensus, as echoed by Tim Weisheyer, points to a market that's moving toward “balance.” This means that we'll likely see more predictable price trends, more reasonable negotiation periods, and a more stable environment for both buyers and sellers. It's about restoring a sense of normalcy after an unusual period.

Looking Ahead: Key Takeaways

  • Price Moderation is Expected: Approximately 24 Florida housing markets are projected to see home prices decline by mid-2026.
  • Southwest Florida Impact: Areas like Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral may experience more notable price adjustments.
  • Data Supports a Shift: Recent Florida Realtors® data shows moderating prices and a mixed bag for sales, indicating a market in transition.
  • Inventory and Interest Rates are Key: Increased supply and higher borrowing costs are influencing demand and price trends.
  • Opportunity for Buyers: Potential buyers may find more favorable conditions and greater affordability.
  • Sellers Need Realistic Expectations: Pricing and negotiation strategies are critical for sellers in this evolving market.

It's an exciting time in Florida real estate, not because of sky-high price appreciation, but because we're moving towards a more stable and predictable market. For anyone involved in buying or selling a home in Florida, staying informed and working with experienced professionals are your best tools. The market is always changing, and understanding these shifts is key to making smart decisions.

Stay Ahead of the Florida Housing Market Shifts

With reports suggesting that multiple Florida housing markets could face price declines by mid-2026, smart investors are preparing now.

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Florida, Housing Market, housing market crash, Housing Market Trends

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